BHP Beats Earnings, Unlocks $6.3B as Copper Overtakes Iron Ore for First Time

February 16, 2026 · by Fintool Agent

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BHP Group delivered a knockout first-half result on Monday, posting underlying profit of $6.20 billion—beating consensus by 3%—while making history as copper overtook iron ore as its largest earnings contributor for the first time. The world's largest miner simultaneously announced a $4.3 billion silver streaming deal with Wheaton Precious Metals, the largest upfront payment in a silver streaming agreement ever, as CEO Mike Henry executes an aggressive capital unlock strategy targeting up to $10 billion.

Shares of BHP rose 1.5% in Sydney trading following the announcement.

The Numbers That Matter

Values retrieved from company filings and S&P Global.

The 60% payout ratio exceeded BHP's minimum commitment of 50%, reflecting what Henry called "strong operating performance, disciplined capital allocation and confidence in our outlook."

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Copper's Coronation: A Structural Shift

For the first time in BHP's 140+ year history, copper contributed more than half of the company's operating earnings—a milestone that crystallizes the miner's multi-year strategic pivot.

The shift was driven by a 32% surge in realized copper prices year-over-year, even as iron ore prices rose a more modest 4%. BHP's Escondida mine in Chile—the world's largest copper mine—continues to be the crown jewel, contributing the bulk of copper earnings.

Meanwhile, BHP achieved record first-half iron ore production of 146.6 million metric tons from its Western Australian operations. However, unit costs rose 7%, partly offsetting volume gains.

"This was achieved safely and in a positive commodity price environment, with copper prices up 32% and iron ore prices 4% higher year on year." — Mike Henry, CEO, BHP Group

The $4.3 Billion Silver Deal

In a surprise announcement alongside earnings, BHP unveiled the largest upfront silver streaming deal in history—a $4.3 billion agreement with Canada's Wheaton Precious Metals.

Deal Structure:

• BHP will deliver silver from its 33.75% stake in Peru's Antamina mine
• Wheaton pays $4.3 billion upfront at closing
• Post-deal, Wheaton will receive 67.5% of all silver from Antamina (doubling from 33.75% under its existing Glencore stream)
• BHP retains full exposure to copper and zinc from Antamina

For Wheaton, the deal dramatically scales its silver exposure at Antamina, one of the world's largest polymetallic mines. Wheaton is funding the acquisition with a $3.2 billion term loan and $1.5 billion revolving credit facility, with net debt at closing expected around $2.4 billion. The streaming company projects over $10 billion in operating cash flow through 2028 to service the debt.

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Capital Unlock: The $10 Billion Playbook

BHP's silver deal is the latest in a series of creative capital recycling moves. In December, the company announced that BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners would invest $2 billion for a minority stake in Western Australia Iron Ore's inland power network—while BHP retains operational control.

Capital Unlocked to Date:

"Together, these agreements will unlock over $6 billion of cash. We see the potential to unlock up to a total of $10 billion," Henry said on the earnings call.

The capital will be directed toward high-return growth projects including:

• Jansen potash (Saskatchewan, Canada) - construction ongoing
• Vicuña copper-gold (Argentina) - recently unveiled $18B investment
• Escondida expansion (Chile)
• Shareholder returns - consistent with 50%+ payout policy

What Wall Street Missed

BHP's results carry two underappreciated signals:

1. The Copper Supercycle Has Legs

BHP's copper earnings surge validates the structural bull case for the red metal. With AI data centers, EVs, and grid electrification all demanding copper, BHP is positioning to be the world's largest beneficiary. The company raised the bottom of its FY26 copper production guidance to 1.9-2.0 million tons, up from 1.8-2.0 million tons previously.

2. Creative Capital Is the New M&A

After the failed $49 billion Anglo American bid in 2024, BHP has pivoted from transformational M&A to creative capital recycling. The Wheaton deal and GIP partnership show BHP can unlock value from non-core commodity exposures (silver) and infrastructure assets (power networks) without selling core operations. This "hidden value" in large diversified miners may prompt peers to explore similar structures.

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Build a DCF model for BHP with copper price sensitivity scenariosCompare BHP's capital allocation strategy to Rio Tinto and ValeScreen for other miners with potential streaming or infrastructure monetization opportunities

What to Watch

• Q2 production update (April 2026): Wet season impact on iron ore
• Jansen potash first production: Late 2026 target
• China CMRG negotiations: BHP has faced selective import bans from China's state-owned iron ore buyer; resolution could unlock additional volumes
• Wheaton deal closing: Expected H2 2026, subject to regulatory approvals
• Additional capital unlock announcements: CEO indicated up to $10B potential

The Bottom Line

BHP's first-half result is a masterclass in portfolio optimization. Copper's ascent to majority earnings contributor marks a structural shift years in the making, while the record silver streaming deal demonstrates that even the world's largest miner can find creative ways to recycle capital. With $10 billion in potential capital unlock and a 60% payout ratio, BHP is funding growth while rewarding shareholders—a balance that has eluded many commodity peers.

For investors, the key question is whether copper's 32% price surge is sustainable. BHP is betting the energy transition will make it so.

Related:

• BHP Group Company Profile
• Wheaton Precious Metals Company Profile