Dover CEO Rich Tobin Sees 3-Year Upcycle in Fueling, Data Center Demand at Barclays Industrial Conference

February 17, 2026 · by Fintool Agent

DOV

Dover Corporation CEO Rich Tobin delivered an upbeat assessment of the U.S. industrial economy and the company's 2026 outlook at the Barclays Industrial Select Conference in Miami Beach today, pointing to accelerating orders, a nascent multi-year upcycle in fueling solutions, and robust data center-related demand as key catalysts for the diversified manufacturer.

"The setup for 2026 is eerily similar to this time last year—except we actually have hard data points we wouldn't normally have," Tobin told Barclays analyst Julian Mitchell. "We went into 2025 betting on the come. In 2026, we have a lot of orders that came in Q4." 1

Dover shares traded at $230.40 on the day, down slightly from Friday's close but hovering near the 52-week high of $237.54 reached last week following strong Q4 2025 earnings.

The Tariff Overhang Has Lifted

Tobin reflected on 2025 as a year of lost momentum due to tariff uncertainty—not the actual economic impact of tariffs, but the "fear of the long tail" that paralyzed corporate CapEx decisions from February through September. 2

"We lost basically February to September last year with everybody dealing with not only the absolute economic impact from the tariffs, but the fear of the long tail," Tobin said. "Knock on wood, it didn't manifest itself into a lot of big problems. It just made the water a little bit muddy." 3

That hesitancy has now reversed. Dover posted bookings growth of 10% in Q4 2025 with a book-to-bill above 1.0, and the momentum has carried into early 2026. 4

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Clean Energy & Fueling: A 3-Year Upcycle Begins

The biggest growth story for Dover is Clean Energy & Fueling, where Tobin sees multiple tailwinds converging.

Fueling Solutions is benefiting from years of deferred CapEx in the internal combustion engine (ICE) infrastructure space—ironically, the same segment that was "uninvestable" during the EV hype cycle of 2021-2022. 1

"I remember being here in 2001 when ICE was uninvestable," Tobin recalled. "EVs were taking over the world. Every auto OEM was gonna build a battery plant. Well, the worm's turned a little bit here." 2

The installed base needs refurbishment, and retailers—having seen Costco's success with fuel margins—are investing in new equipment. "We would think we're likely gonna go into a three-year upcycle on fueling solutions, and that's a pretty profitable business for us," Tobin said. 3

Cryogenic Components is a secular play on the LNG-to-propane gas complex, where massive infrastructure investments continue. Dover has been consolidating its footprint—shrinking from 9 acquired factories down to 4 by mid-2026—setting up meaningful restructuring benefits. 4

Climate & Sustainability: 1.21x Book-to-Bill Signals Strength

Climate & Sustainability Technologies posted the strongest demand signal in Q4: a 1.21 book-to-bill ratio. 5

The segment's growth is coming from three areas:

1. Brazed Plate Heat Exchangers — Driven by data center liquid cooling, district heating, and heat pump recovery. Dover set a record for quarterly U.S. shipments in Q4. 6

2. CO2 Refrigeration Systems — A business that went from zero to over $300 million in revenue over 18 months as the company transferred European technology to North America. 7

3. Retail Refrigeration — The segment bore the brunt of tariff-related CapEx deferrals in 2025, but those orders are now flowing back. National retailers are resuming maintenance and replacement spending. 8

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Data Center Exposure: Niche TAMs, Stable Pricing

Tobin acknowledged Dover's data center exposure through two product lines—thermal connectors (bringing water to the chip) and brazed plate heat exchangers (at the cooling distribution unit and building infrastructure level)—but pushed back on the notion that Dover is a major data center play. 1

"In the grand scheme of things, we're not an overly material supplier into the infrastructure," Tobin said. "Our businesses occupy niche-y TAMs at the end of the day. The TAM is not big enough to attract a lot of competitors." 2

That's actually the strategy: pursue markets too small to attract competitors, where pricing remains stable and capital requirements are measured in tens of millions rather than billions. 3

"A CapEx expansion for us, we're not betting the balance sheet. These are projects that are $20-$30 million. They're not $1.5 billion, $2 billion. That's the beauty of the business model. We can take hundreds of small calculated bets as opposed to 5 massive binary bets." 4

$1.5 Billion M&A Firepower—But Patience Required

Dover deployed $700 million across four strategic acquisitions in 2025, three of which landed in the highest-priority Pumps & Process Solutions segment. The acquisitions are "performing above their underwriting cases," and Dover still has approximately $1.5 billion in liquidity for future deals. 5

But Tobin signaled discipline. The middle-market M&A environment in 2025 was characterized by scarcity—a few deals at elevated multiples—and early 2026 indicators suggest that dynamic may persist. 6

"The early signal is [multiples are] gonna be kind of high, but maybe with more deals coming, that'll put some top-line pressure on multiples paid," Tobin said. "It's February sixteenth, so we'll see it over the next 180 days or so." 7

If attractive deals don't materialize, Dover will fall back to share repurchases. The company initiated a $500 million accelerated share repurchase in November 2025, and capital returns remain a standing option. 8

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Financial Snapshot

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

For 2026, Dover is guiding to adjusted EPS of $10.45-$10.65, representing 10%+ growth at the midpoint, with free cash flow conversion of 14%-16% of revenue. 8

What to Watch

Near-term catalysts:

• Q1 2026 earnings (late April) — Will the order momentum convert to shipments?
• M&A announcements — Management describes the pipeline as "interesting" and "dominated by proprietary opportunities" 1
• Heat pump market recovery — European demand normalization remains a swing factor

Key risks:

• European vehicle aftermarket exposure (double-digit declines in 2025, now ~15% of portfolio) 2
• M&A multiple discipline — Will Dover pay up if attractive targets emerge at premium valuations?
• Interest rate trajectory — Lower rates support customer CapEx but also fuel M&A competition

Audience Poll Takeaways

At the conclusion of the fireside chat, Barclays polled the audience of institutional investors. The results: 3

• ~60% do not own shares — suggesting room for incremental buying if the thesis plays out
• Bias slightly positive on the stock
• 50% expect excess cash to go to M&A, with the rest split between buybacks and debt paydown
• Consensus P/E: ~19-20x on 2026 estimates

Tobin quipped "I'll take five" when the P/E results were displayed. 4

Related: Dover Corporation