Dow Jones Strikes Exclusive Deal to Bring Polymarket's Prediction Data to Wall Street Journal
January 7, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
News Corp.+0.08%'s Dow Jones has secured an exclusive partnership with Polymarket to integrate real-time prediction market data across its flagship financial publications—The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, and MarketWatch. The deal marks a significant shift in how mainstream financial media approaches crowd-sourced probability data, giving Dow Jones a differentiated data advantage as competition for digital subscribers intensifies.
The Deal Structure
Under the exclusive arrangement, Polymarket's real-time prediction market odds will be embedded directly into Dow Jones editorial content, providing readers with live market-implied probabilities on elections, economic events, corporate outcomes, and policy decisions. The integration spans all three major Dow Jones consumer brands and represents the first exclusive media partnership for the prediction market platform.
Polymarket, which gained widespread attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election for its accurate forecasting, operates as a decentralized prediction market where traders stake real money on outcome probabilities. The platform's election forecasts consistently outperformed traditional polling aggregates, with accuracy rates frequently cited above 90% for binary outcome markets.
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhy Dow Jones Needs This
The partnership arrives as Dow Jones accelerates its digital transformation within News Corp.+0.08%'s portfolio. Digital revenues now account for 80% of Dow Jones's total revenue , reflecting a successful pivot away from print dependency. The segment's consumer digital subscription base has grown to 5.226 million subscribers , with WSJ digital-only subscribers reaching 3.788 million (up 11% year-over-year) and Barron's Group adding 1.290 million (up 27% year-over-year) .
| Metric | Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| WSJ Digital-Only Subscribers | 3.788M | +11% |
| Barron's Group Digital Subscribers | 1.290M | +27% |
| Total Consumer Digital Subs | 5.226M | — |
| Digital Revenue Share | 80% | — |
But subscriber growth is slowing across the industry, and differentiated content has become critical. Exclusive access to Polymarket's data gives Dow Jones a unique hook—readers tracking elections, Fed policy, or corporate events can see live market-implied probabilities alongside traditional reporting.
News Corp's Financial Position
News Corp reported Q1 2026 revenues of $1.979 billion with net income of $112 million and EBITDA of $341 million . The Dow Jones segment remains a key growth driver within the conglomerate, which also includes book publishing (HarperCollins), real estate services (REA Group, Move), and subscription video services (Foxtel).
| Q1 2026 Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Revenues | $1.979B |
| Net Income | $112M |
| EBITDA | $341M |
Ask Fintool AI AgentThe Prediction Market Landscape
The Polymarket partnership positions Dow Jones strategically as prediction markets enter the mainstream. The sector has seen rapid growth following regulatory clarity and the demonstrated accuracy of decentralized forecasting platforms.
Polymarket's model differs from traditional polling or analyst forecasts—it aggregates real money bets from thousands of participants, creating continuously updated probability estimates that incorporate all available information. During the 2024 election cycle, Polymarket's presidential odds became a closely watched indicator, often moving faster than traditional news coverage on breaking developments.
Competitors including Kalshi and PredictIt also operate in the U.S. prediction market space, but Polymarket's scale and liquidity have made it the dominant player for event contracts. The exclusive Dow Jones deal effectively blocks rivals from replicating this media integration at the most prominent financial publications.
What to Watch
Subscriber metrics: Watch for Dow Jones to highlight prediction market integrations in future earnings calls as a driver of engagement and premium conversions. Management has consistently emphasized digital product innovation as central to subscriber growth strategy .
Competitive response: Bloomberg, Reuters, and The Financial Times will likely seek alternative prediction data partnerships or develop proprietary solutions. The window for exclusive arrangements may narrow as the asset class matures.
Regulatory developments: Prediction markets remain in a regulatory gray zone in some jurisdictions. Any CFTC or SEC guidance on event contracts could impact Polymarket's operations and, by extension, the partnership's value.
Accuracy validation: Polymarket's credibility hinges on continued forecasting accuracy. Any high-profile misses—particularly in economic or market predictions—could diminish the data's perceived value to sophisticated WSJ readers.
Ask Fintool AI AgentThe Bottom Line
Dow Jones is betting that prediction market data becomes essential reading for investors and decision-makers. By locking up exclusive access to Polymarket's real-time odds, News Corp gains a differentiated content asset that competitors cannot easily replicate. For a company that has successfully pivoted 80% of its flagship brand to digital, this partnership represents the next evolution—not just delivering news, but integrating live probability data that helps readers quantify uncertainty in real time.
Related: News Corp. Company Profile+0.08%