Macau Gaming Revenue Misses December Estimates—Recovery Stalls at 85% of Pre-Pandemic Levels
January 1, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
Macau's December gaming revenue rose 14.8% year-over-year to MOP20.9 billion ($2.6 billion), missing analyst expectations of 18% growth and signaling that the world's largest gambling hub may be losing momentum in its post-pandemic recovery. The miss sent the Bloomberg Intelligence index tracking Macau casino operators down 12.6% in December alone, with Las Vegas Sands-4.76% and WYNN Resorts-0.37% bearing the brunt of the selloff.
Full-year 2025 gross gaming revenue totaled MOP247.4 billion, up 9.1% from 2024 but still only 85% of the MOP292 billion peak reached in 2019. For an industry that management teams had confidently predicted would exceed $30 billion in 2025, the shortfall raises uncomfortable questions about whether the recovery has hit a ceiling.
Ask Fintool AI AgentThe Numbers That Matter
December's 14.8% growth brought full-year revenue to 91% of 2019's comparable month—a deceleration from the pace that had analysts expecting the market to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2026. The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau's data revealed a market that, while still growing, is facing headwinds that weren't fully priced into expectations.
| Metric | 2019 (Peak) | 2024 | 2025 | Recovery % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full Year GGR (MOP B) | 292.4 | 226.8 | 247.4 | 85% |
| December GGR (MOP B) | 22.9 | 18.2 | 20.9 | 91% |
| YoY Growth | — | 26.5% | 9.1% | — |
The deceleration is particularly notable given the low base from 2024. Analysts had projected December growth of 18%, which would have put full-year revenue on track to breach 90% of 2019 levels. Instead, the miss suggests either demand saturation in the premium mass segment or macroeconomic headwinds from mainland China that are harder to quantify.
Who Gets Hurt
U.S.-listed Macau operators have diverged sharply in December. Las Vegas Sands-4.76% and WYNN Resorts-0.37%, with their concentrated Macau exposure, have underperformed, while MGM Resorts-1.99%—more diversified across Las Vegas—has held up better.
Las Vegas Sands generated $3.33 billion in revenue during Q3 2025, with Macau contributing the lion's share of EBITDA. CEO Robert Goldstein had confidently predicted at the start of 2025 that "gross gaming revenue should exceed $30 billion in 2025 and continue to grow." That prediction came in almost exactly on target at MOP247.4 billion (~$30.7 billion), but the growth trajectory has flattened.
Wynn Resorts CEO Craig Billings has been more circumspect, describing the Macau market as "day-to-day, hand-to-hand combat" for market share. The company generated $254 million in Macau EBITDA during Q2 2025, with poor VIP hold costing nearly $40 million in the quarter. Wynn derives approximately 76% of its EBITDA from Macau, making it the most exposed of the U.S. operators.
| Company | Q3 2025 Revenue | EBITDA Margin | December Stock Performance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands | $3.33B | 36.4%* | -6.3% |
| Wynn Resorts | $1.83B | 25.3%* | -9.4% |
| MGM Resorts | $4.25B | 11.3%* | +3.0% |
*Values retrieved from S&P Global
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat Management Is Saying
The December miss comes despite aggressive capital investment programs from all major operators. LVS is nearing completion of its Londoner Grand renovation in Cotai, which management expects to drive "meaningful EBITDA growth and margin expansion." The company has been buying back Sands China stock, increasing its equity interest to 72.3%.
Wynn has taken a more defensive posture. "We rely on the things that we've always done really, really well—service, the quality of the product, and then muscles that we've built over the course of the past few years on the machine learning side and on offer development and offer delivery," Billings said on the Q1 2025 earnings call.
Both companies point to entertainment as a key driver of visitation. Wynn is building an event center on the north parcel adjacent to Wynn Palace, targeting an early 2028 opening pending government approvals.
Ask Fintool AI AgentThe China Problem
The elephant in the room is China's macroeconomic trajectory. While Macau technically reopened in early 2023, the recovery has been uneven. The premium mass segment—middle-class Chinese tourists spending $1,000-$10,000 per trip—has driven the rebound, but that segment appears to be moderating.
Q4 2024 was already impacted by the 25th anniversary celebrations of Macau's reunification with China, which affected tourism patterns. But the December miss suggests something more structural: Chinese consumers may be pulling back on discretionary spending amid property sector stress and weak employment prospects for graduates.
Retail sales at Macau's luxury malls have been soft. LVS noted that turnover rents at the Four Seasons mall were down $27 million year-over-year in Q4 2024, driven by weaker retail sales following a record 2023.
What to Watch
Chinese New Year (Late January): The biggest test for Macau will be the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, traditionally the strongest period for gaming revenue. A weak showing would confirm that the recovery has stalled.
Q4 Earnings: LVS, WYNN, and MGM will report Q4 2025 results in late January and early February. Listen for any downward revisions to 2026 guidance.
Policy signals: Beijing's posture toward Macau remains supportive, but any tightening of visa policies or crack down on junkets would signal trouble.
New supply: Galaxy Entertainment's Phase 4 and Wynn's event center represent meaningful new capacity. If the market isn't growing fast enough to absorb it, margin pressure will intensify.
Ask Fintool AI AgentThe Bottom Line
The December miss is a reality check for an industry that had grown accustomed to extrapolating rapid recovery rates. At 85% of pre-pandemic levels after three years of reopening, Macau's trajectory suggests a market approaching maturity rather than one primed for continued double-digit growth. For investors, the question is whether current valuations—with LVS trading at 10x forward EBITDA and WYNN at 8x—adequately reflect a lower-growth future.
The stocks may find support if Chinese New Year delivers strong visitation numbers. But if December's miss is a harbinger of sustained deceleration, the Macau trade that worked so well in 2023-2024 may need to be rethought.
Ask Fintool AI AgentRelated Companies: Las Vegas Sands-4.76% · WYNN Resorts-0.37% · MGM Resorts-1.99%