Nucor Q4 Earnings Miss on Margin Compression; Shares Fall 3%
January 26, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
Nucor Corporation-2.20% reported Q4 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.73 per share, missing the Wall Street consensus of $1.81 by 4.4%, as margin compression in its sheet steel business weighed on results. Revenue came in at $7.69 billion, also falling short of the $7.91 billion estimate. Shares dropped approximately 3% in after-hours trading.
The miss marks a sequential deceleration from Q3 2025, when Nucor earned $2.63 per share on $8.52 billion in revenue. However, management struck an optimistic tone, guiding for improvement across all segments in Q1 2026.
The Numbers
| Metric | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q/Q Change | Consensus | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.69B | $8.52B | -10% | $7.91B | Miss |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.73 | $2.63 | -34% | $1.81 | Miss |
| GAAP EPS | $1.64 | $2.63 | -38% | — | — |
| EBITDA | $918M | $1.27B | -27% | $1.06B | Miss |
| EBITDA Margin | 11.9% | 14.7%* | -280 bps | — | — |
*Values retrieved from S&P Global
The quarter included $27 million in losses and impairments related to facility closures and asset writedowns.
Ask Fintool AI AgentSegment Performance
The steel mills segment—Nucor's largest—bore the brunt of the weakness, with pre-tax earnings declining 35% sequentially to $516 million from $793 million in Q3. Management attributed the decline to lower volumes and margin compression, "primarily in sheet."
| Segment | Q4 2025 Pre-Tax | Q3 2025 Pre-Tax | Q/Q Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steel Mills | $516M | $793M | -35% |
| Steel Products | $230M | $319M | -28% |
| Raw Materials | $24M | $43M | -44% |
Total shipments from the steel mills segment fell 8% sequentially to 5.9 million short tons. Average realized pricing slipped 2% quarter-over-quarter to $1,019 per ton.
The raw materials segment saw the steepest percentage decline due to two scheduled outages at Nucor's direct reduced iron (DRI) facilities, partially offset by insurance recoveries.
Year-Over-Year Perspective
While sequential results disappointed, year-over-year comparisons tell a different story. Q4 2025 GAAP EPS of $1.64 represents a 34% increase from Q4 2024's $1.22. Revenue grew 9% year-over-year from $7.08 billion.
For full-year 2025, Nucor reported net earnings of $1.74 billion ($7.52 per share), down 14% from $2.03 billion ($8.46 per share) in 2024. Annual revenue increased 6% to $32.5 billion.
CEO Commentary
"I want to thank our teammates for their tremendous work throughout 2025—delivering for our customers, advancing key growth projects, and making this Nucor's safest year," said CEO Leon Topalian.
Topalian highlighted several major projects that came online during 2025:
- Lexington, NC: New rebar micro-mill
- Kingman, AZ: New melt shop
- Alabama: New Towers and Structures facility
- Crawfordsville, IN: New coating complex
"Looking ahead to 2026, we are encouraged by robust demand in several key end markets, historically strong backlogs, and federal policies that support a vibrant domestic steel industry," Topalian added.
Ask Fintool AI AgentQ1 2026 Outlook
Management guided for earnings increases across all three segments in Q1 2026, with the largest improvement expected in steel mills.
Steel Mills: Higher volumes and realized prices across all major product categories
Steel Products: Improved earnings from increased volumes on stable pricing
Raw Materials: Expected increase as DRI facility outages conclude
Current analyst estimates for Q1 2026 project EPS of $2.79, implying a 61% sequential recovery from Q4's $1.73.*
*Values retrieved from S&P Global
Balance Sheet Remains Fortress-Like
Despite the earnings pressure, Nucor's financial position remains exceptionally strong:
| Metric | Q4 2025 | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cash & Short-Term Investments | $2.70B | |
| Undrawn Credit Facility | $2.25B | Expires March 2030 |
| Credit Ratings | A-/A-/A3 | S&P/Fitch/Moody's (stable) |
| Consecutive Dividend Increases | 53 years | Since 1973 |
| Capital Returned in 2025 | $1.2B | Dividends + buybacks |
The company repurchased approximately 5.4 million shares at an average price of $128.66 during 2025, with $406 million remaining under its authorization.
Steel Industry Context
Nucor's results land in a complex environment for US steelmakers. Section 232 tariffs were doubled to 50% in April 2025, providing price support for domestic producers. However, the tariff shield hasn't fully insulated margins from global overcapacity and softer automotive demand.
Steel prices have stabilized in the low-to-mid $800s per short ton range after volatility in recent years. Industry analysts see prices as "range-bound into early 2026" with potential upside from construction acceleration and import reductions.
Data center construction has emerged as a bright spot for steel demand, with spending up 26% year-over-year as of August 2025. However, some market participants worry about overreliance on this single sector.
Market Reaction
Nucor shares closed the regular session at $177.66, down 2.2% amid broader market uncertainty before the earnings release. In after-hours trading, shares fell an additional 2-3% to approximately $173.56 following the earnings miss.
The stock has risen roughly 82% from its 52-week low of $97.59, though it remains below some analyst price targets.
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat to Watch
January 27, 2026: Nucor earnings conference call at 10:00 AM ET
Tariff Developments: Trump administration's evolving trade policy, including potential country-specific negotiations
New Capacity Ramp: Contribution from recently commissioned facilities as they reach full utilization
End-Market Demand: Data center construction pipeline, infrastructure spending, and nonresidential construction trends