Teck CEO at BMO Conference: Anglo Teck Merger On Track, Only Chinese Approval Remains
February 23, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
Teck Resources CEO Jonathan Price took the stage at the BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference today with a clear message: the transformational merger with Anglo American is sprinting toward the finish line, with only Chinese regulatory approval standing between the two mining giants and the creation of a top-five global copper producer.
"We are making excellent progress, and that timeframe remains valid," Price told the Florida audience, referencing the 12-to-18 month regulatory timeline laid out when the $69 billion merger of equals was announced in September 2025.
Shares of Teck (NYSE: TECK) closed at $58.62, down 1.3% on the session, as investors digested the conference presentation alongside the company's strong Q4 2025 results reported last week.
Regulatory Runway Nearly Clear
The merger has cleared regulatory hurdles with remarkable speed. Shareholders of both companies voted overwhelmingly in favor on December 9, 2025, and Canada's Investment Canada Act approval followed just six days later—"in record time," Price noted.
Antitrust approvals are now complete across six jurisdictions: Canada, Chile, Australia, Japan, the European Union, and the United States. Only China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) review remains outstanding.
"The Chinese regulator will consult with market participants in China, which is the way these processes work," Price explained during the Q&A session. "There's nothing we see at this point that causes us to change that view" on the 12-to-18 month closing timeline.
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Anglo Teck will emerge as one of the world's most compelling copper investment stories, Price argued, positioning the combined entity as a top-five global copper producer with more than 1.2 million tonnes of annual production underpinned by six world-class assets.
The value creation thesis centers on three pillars:
$800 Million in Annual Synergies: Corporate cost savings represent "the most immediately available benefits of the transaction," with approximately 80% expected to be realized by the end of the second year following completion.
QB-Quellaveco Combination: The crown jewel opportunity involves combining Teck's Quebrada Blanca (QB) operation with Anglo American's adjacent Quellaveco mine. Processing higher-grade Quellaveco ore through QB's plant could unlock 175,000 tonnes of additional annual copper production—"essentially a new large Tier One mine"—for as little as $1.9 billion in capital.
"That will be a priority for us," Price emphasized, noting that the combination could generate $1.4 billion in annual underlying EBITDA uplift from 2030 through 2049.
Los Bronces-Andina Adjacencies: Anglo American's existing agreement with Codelco on adjacent Chilean assets represents another meaningful opportunity to "unlock material copper tonnes in the near term."
Strong Q4 Caps Transformational Year
Teck's financial performance validated the strategic pivot to copper. Full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA surged 48% to $4.3 billion, while Q4 alone delivered a 50% EBITDA margin—"one of the strongest margins we've delivered in recent years," Price noted.
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,593* | $1,483* | $2,430* | $2,230* |
| EBITDA ($M) | $632* | $502* | $767* | $908* |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 39.7%* | 33.8%* | 31.6%* | 40.7%* |
| Net Income ($M) | $257* | $151* | $202* | $397* |
| Cash from Operations ($M) | -$358* | $65* | $465* | $918* |
*Values retrieved from S&P Global
The company returned to a net cash position by year-end 2025 after returning $1.3 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.
Quebrada Blanca: Steady State in Sight
The Quebrada Blanca copper mine in Chile—one of the largest greenfield copper projects built in recent years—continued its operational turnaround. Q4 2025 production of 55,000 tonnes was the strongest of the year, reflecting meaningful progress on the troubled tailings management facility (TMF).
"December's throughput rate was the highest of the year," Price reported. The installation of alternative cyclone technology in November delivered "materially improved sand drainage" and "significant improvements in paddock development rates."
Teck reaffirmed production guidance for 2026-2028 across all operated sites on January 20, with QB on track to reach steady-state operations by year-end 2026. The operation has also transitioned to 100% renewable power under a long-term clean energy agreement.
Ask Fintool AI AgentThe Bull Case for Copper
Price devoted significant presentation time to the structural copper thesis underpinning Anglo Teck's strategic rationale. Consensus copper prices for 2026 have climbed 35% from $4/lb in 2022 forecasts to $5.35/lb today, with benchmark treatment and refining charges hitting zero—"the lowest level ever seen"—reflecting tight smelter utilization.
"Copper sits at the heart of electrification," Price argued, outlining four structural demand tailwinds:
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Grid Infrastructure: China's State Grid, the world's largest copper consumer, announced a "sharp uplift in spending over the next five years, far outpacing the rate of their historic investments." Grid bottlenecks represent the key constraint to global electrification.
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Electric Vehicles & Energy Storage: Green energy policies and EV rollouts are expected to drive "near double-digit CAGR to the end of the decade."
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AI & Data Centers: "Rapid growth in artificial intelligence is driving substantial data center capital expenditures, further increasing demand for copper."
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Renewables: Solar, wind, and associated grid connections continue expanding.
On the supply side, Price highlighted a fundamental timing mismatch: "A new state-of-the-art data center can take as little as nine months to build, while a new mine could take over 20 years."
Production from existing mines is expected to decline starting in 2027, with supply peaking in 2029 even accounting for committed projects. Unplanned 2025 disruptions exceeded 6% above historic levels.
At $5.50/lb copper—slightly above current consensus—Teck projects CAD 6.2 billion in standalone EBITDA and CAD 3.8 billion in operating cash flow for 2026. At $6.00/lb, those figures jump to CAD 6.9 billion and CAD 4.8 billion, respectively.
Analyst Estimates Point to Growth
Consensus estimates reflect confidence in Teck's trajectory, with analysts projecting meaningful earnings growth as copper leverage and QB optimization take hold:
| Metric | FY 2025 (Actual) | FY 2026E | FY 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.25* | $2.61* | $2.75* |
| Revenue ($B) | $7.84* | $9.27* | $9.68* |
| EBITDA ($B) | $2.84* | $4.12* | $4.56* |
*Values retrieved from S&P Global
The current analyst consensus price target of $57.87 sits roughly in line with today's trading level, though the estimates do not yet fully reflect potential Anglo Teck synergies or QB-Quellaveco upside.
What to Watch
Chinese Regulatory Decision: The final piece of the merger puzzle. Price characterized the review as proceeding "in the normal course" but declined to speculate on timing or potential conditions.
QB-Quellaveco Negotiations: Commercial discussions with partners including Codelco, Sumitomo, and Glencore will determine how the $1.4 billion EBITDA uplift opportunity gets structured. "The hard work of commercial negotiation lies ahead of us," Price acknowledged.
Copper Price Trajectory: With over 70% copper exposure post-merger, Anglo Teck's earnings will move meaningfully with the red metal. The bullish supply-demand setup could support prices, but near-term volatility around China demand remains a risk.
Integration Execution: Delivering $800 million in synergies while simultaneously optimizing six world-class assets will test management bandwidth.
Ask Fintool AI AgentSource: Teck Resources presentation at BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference, February 23, 2026. Conference hosted by BMO Capital Markets in Florida.