United Airlines Posts Record $15.4B Quarter, Guides to Potential Record 2026 Earnings
January 20, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
United Airlines-4.33% delivered the highest quarterly revenue in company history and guided to what could be record earnings in 2026, as the premium-focused strategy that once seemed risky continues to outperform the broader industry.
Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.10 beat the $2.92 consensus, while revenue of $15.4 billion exceeded estimates and marked a 4.8% year-over-year increase. The airline simultaneously unveiled 2026 guidance of $12-$14 adjusted EPS—bracketing Wall Street's $13.04 estimate and implying 13-32% earnings growth over FY25's $10.62.
"Our results are built on winning more and more brand-loyal customers — it's clear they get the most value flying United," CEO Scott Kirby said. "This was the highest-revenue quarter in United's history and the highest quarterly RASM of the year providing strong revenue momentum that is continuing into 2026."
Ask Fintool AI AgentPremium Revenue Surge Powers the Beat
The numbers vindicate United's aggressive bet on premium travel. In Q4, premium cabin revenue rose 9% year-over-year, while loyalty revenue climbed 10%. Even Basic Economy—the price-sensitive segment—grew 7%. For the full year, premium revenue expanded 11%, outpacing overall revenue growth of 3.5%.
The strategy mirrors what rival Delta Air Lines-4.22% has pursued, but United is executing at a larger scale. Where Delta reported Q4 revenue of $13.2 billion, United's $15.4 billion represents the largest quarter ever for either carrier.
| Metric | Q4 2024 | Q4 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $14.7B | $15.4B | +4.8% |
| Premium Revenue Growth | — | +9% | — |
| Loyalty Revenue Growth | — | +10% | — |
| Basic Economy Growth | — | +7% | — |
| Passengers | 44.3M | 45.7M | +3.0% |
Momentum has carried into 2026. The week ending January 4 was the highest flown revenue week in United history, and the week ending January 11 was both the highest ticketing week and highest business sales week ever.
Government Shutdown Cost $250 Million
The quarter wasn't without headwinds. The November government shutdown—which grounded federal air traffic controllers and disrupted travel—cost United approximately $250 million in pre-tax earnings.
But United turned adversity into opportunity. The airline offered full refunds to all affected customers, even if their flights weren't canceled, and aggressively promoted the policy. The result: November recorded United's highest-ever monthly Net Promoter Score.
"Our customer-first policies, combined with the impact to bookings and costs, led to an approximately $250 million impact to pre-tax earnings in the quarter," the company stated.
Ask Fintool AI AgentFull-Year 2025: Records Across the Board
For fiscal 2025, United delivered:
| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $59.1B | $57.1B | +3.5% |
| Pre-Tax Earnings | $4.3B | $4.2B | +3.3% |
| Adjusted EPS | $10.62 | $10.61 | +0.1% |
| GAAP EPS | $10.20 | $9.45 | +7.9% |
| Operating Cash Flow | $8.4B | $9.4B | -10.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.7B | $4.3B | -37.2% |
| Passengers | 181M | 174M | +4.3% |
United claims it "expects to be the only U.S. airline to grow adjusted EPS for FY25"—a pointed contrast with competitors struggling with capacity discipline and labor costs.
The airline flew a record 181 million passengers, ranked #2 in on-time departures, and achieved the lowest seat cancellation rate in company history.
2026: Path to Record Earnings
United's 2026 guidance implies the potential for record earnings:
| Guidance Metric | 2026 Estimate |
|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $12.00-$14.00 |
| Q1 Adjusted EPS | $1.00-$1.50 |
| Capital Expenditures | <$8.0B |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.7B (similar to 2025) |
| New Aircraft Deliveries | 120+ |
The fleet expansion is aggressive. United plans to take delivery of over 100 narrowbody aircraft and approximately 20 Boeing 787s—"more widebody aircraft in a year than any U.S. passenger airline since 1988."
Balance Sheet Strength
United ended the year with adjusted net debt of $19.9 billion and net leverage of 2.2x—flat versus the prior year. The airline repurchased $640 million of shares in 2025, a signal of confidence in free cash flow generation.
| Balance Sheet Metric | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Total Debt | $25.0B | $28.7B |
| Adjusted Net Debt | $19.9B | $20.4B |
| Net Leverage | 2.2x | 2.2x |
| Available Liquidity | $15.2B | — |
| Total Equity | $15.3B | $12.7B |
What to Watch
United's earnings call on January 21 will provide critical detail on:
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Demand Visibility: With January already showing record bookings, how far does premium demand visibility extend into 2026?
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Boeing Delivery Risk: The 120+ aircraft delivery target depends heavily on Boeing execution—a perennial uncertainty.
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Competitive Response: Will Delta and American match United's capacity additions, potentially pressuring yields?
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International Expansion: New routes to Bari, Santiago de Compostela, Glasgow, and Split launch in 2026. Can international yields hold?
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Starlink Rollout: United expects Starlink installations to "accelerate rapidly during 2026" on mainline aircraft. Will free premium Wi-Fi become a competitive moat?
Ask Fintool AI AgentThe Bottom Line
United Airlines delivered a quarter that would have seemed improbable five years ago: record revenue, expanding margins, and premium growth outpacing budget travel. The 2026 guidance of $12-$14 EPS suggests management sees no ceiling on the premium strategy.
For investors, the question isn't whether United can execute—it's whether the industry will let them. With Delta pursuing a similar playbook and American struggling to keep pace, the airlines' bet on wealthy travelers is working. But it's also concentrating risk: any pullback in corporate or premium leisure spending would hit United harder than diversified peers.
The January 21 earnings call will be less about what happened and more about what's next. With record bookings already in hand, United is daring investors to bet against the premium thesis.
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