Christopher Horvers

Christopher Horvers, a Senior Analyst at JPMorgan, questioned the underlying demand trends in the home improvement category, seeking clarification on the net impact of various weather events (winter storms Fern and Gianna, prior year hurricanes, and polar vortexes) on Q4 and January sales, and whether demand is generally improving. He also asked about the potential sales pickup in the first half of the year following a tough winter, especially for Lowe's outdoor business.

Answer

Brandon Sink, EVP and CFO, detailed the weather impacts, noting a 50 basis point benefit from winter storms in Q4 (200 basis points in January) offsetting prior year hurricane headwinds. He affirmed strong underlying demand across Pro, DIY, and DIFM, with Q1 expecting consistent drivers despite early disruptions. William Boltz, EVP of Merchandising, highlighted strength in pro-related categories, paint, garden, and other areas. Marvin Ellison, Chairman, President, and CEO, expressed cautious optimism for spring and 2026, citing strong in-stock levels, an improved garden strategy, and the MyLowe's Rewards program, confident in outperforming the market.

Christopher Horvers asked for clarification on demand trends, specifically the net impact of winter storms Fern and Gianna (50 basis points benefit) versus lapping prior hurricane recovery and polar vortexes, and whether overall demand is improving at the margin. He also asked about the potential sales pickup in the first half due to the tough winter, especially for Lowe's outdoor business.

Answer

Brandon Sink, EVP and CFO, detailed the weather impacts, noting a 100 basis points headwind from prior hurricanes, a 50 basis points benefit from Fern and Gianna (200 basis points in January), and an easier lap from ice storms. He affirmed strong underlying demand across Pro, DIY, and DIFM, with Q1 facing continued storm disruption. William Boltz, EVP of Merchandising, highlighted strength in pro-related categories, paint, garden, and hardware. Marvin Ellison, Chairman, President, and CEO, expressed cautious optimism for spring, citing strong in-stock levels, an improved garden strategy, and the MyLowe's Rewards program, confident in outperforming the macro.

Chris Horvers inquired about Lowe's business trends over the past six months, the impact of harder comparisons, and expectations for 2026 acceleration, particularly regarding the flat guidance for Q4 despite positive quarter-to-date performance. He also asked about the positive shift in the kitchen and bath category and whether investor perception of Lowe's remodel-orientation is accurate.

Answer

Marvin Ellison, Chairman and CEO, highlighted positive comp performance in November despite storm overlaps and the effectiveness of the Total Home Strategy. Bill Boltz, EVP of Merchandising, noted broad-based strength in seasonal, holiday, tools, and appliances, with appliances showing four straight quarters of comp and unit growth. Brandon Sink, EVP and CFO, expressed cautious optimism for 2026, citing accelerating one-year and two-year comps (excluding storm impact), strength in pro, online, and appliances, and the positive impact of FBM and ADG integrations. Marvin Ellison attributed kitchen and bath strength to Lowe's gaining market share through a digitized install business, a best-in-class tech stack, central selling, and strong product/credit offerings. Bill Boltz added that a vanity reset and broad-based strength across categories like toilets and bathing contributed to the kitchen and bath performance.

Chris Horvers asked about the business trend over the past six months, the impact of harder compares, and expectations for 2026, including whether Lowe's comparable sales should accelerate. He also inquired about the positive performance in Kitchen & Bath, asking if it indicates a shift in big-ticket remodel categories and if there's a misperception about Lowe's remodel orientation.

Answer

Marvin Ellison (Chairman and CEO) and Bill Boltz (EVP of Merchandising) expressed satisfaction with positive November comps, driven by seasonal, holiday, tools, and appliances, noting four consecutive quarters of appliance growth. Brandon Sink (EVP and CFO) highlighted cautious optimism for 2026, citing accelerating one-year and two-year comps (excluding storm impact), strength in pro, online, appliances, and home services, along with operational discipline. Marvin Ellison attributed Kitchen & Bath strength to Lowe's gaining market share through a digitized install business, a best-in-class tech stack, central selling, and Bill Boltz mentioned successful vanity showroom resets.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if the previously mentioned $400 million sales shift from Q1 due to weather fully materialized in Q2. He also questioned whether the FBM acquisition would necessitate a secondary investment cycle in Lowe's core supply chain to support larger pro fulfillment.

Answer

EVP & CFO Brandon Sink confirmed that the large majority of the $400 million seasonal sales shift from Q1 was realized in Q2 as weather improved, aligning with expectations. President, CEO & Chairman Marvin Ellison stated that while there may be future smaller tuck-in acquisitions, there are no plans for another large acquisition. He clarified that FBM is a platform purchase and future investments to build it out will be managed within the existing annual CapEx spend, without requiring a major step-up.

Christopher Horvers asked for context on Lowe's Q4 strength, questioning if factors like election deferrals or tariffs played a role, and why the full-year 2025 guidance doesn't reflect more improvement. He also inquired about the expected gross margin trajectory for the year.

Answer

CEO Marvin Ellison expressed satisfaction with Q4 performance in a difficult macro environment. CFO Brandon Sink attributed the top and bottom-line beat to strong Pro and online growth, noting that January weather created a drag that factored into the Q1 outlook. Sink stated the 2025 guide assumes a flat market, but Lowe's expects to outperform by about 100 basis points via its Total Home initiatives. He projected a flat gross margin for the year, as productivity gains will offset investments in Pro, supply chain, and customer value.

Christopher Horvers asked if the Q3 DIY performance was in line with expectations, how a recovery might compare to past cycles, whether the recent hurricanes were a net drag on earnings, and about the Q4 gross margin outlook.

Answer

EVP and CFO Brandon Sink confirmed DIY trends were as expected, with pressure on big-ticket items. He also stated the hurricane impact was slightly accretive to earnings and that the full-year gross margin outlook remains roughly flat. Chairman and CEO Marvin Ellison added that Lowe's has invested heavily in its stores and online platform to be prepared for an eventual market inflection.

Christopher Horvers questioned if weather impacted the Pro business in Q1 despite its strong performance and asked about the gross margin implications of potential tariffs, particularly in relation to the company's FIFO inventory accounting.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Marvin Ellison confirmed that weather did impact the Pro business in Q1, but performance improved as conditions moderated, and he expressed strong confidence in the Pro strategy and new loyalty program. On tariffs, Marvin Ellison reiterated a commitment to being price competitive. EVP and CFO Brandon Sink explained that under FIFO accounting, any cost impacts would primarily flow through in the second half of the year. However, he noted these potential impacts are already baked into the full-year guidance, and the company expects to offset the majority through its portfolio approach and other mitigation actions.

Christopher Horvers asked if weather impacted the Pro business in Q1 and how the company expects to manage gross margin and the timing of tariff impacts given its FIFO inventory accounting.

Answer

CEO Marvin Ellison confirmed that weather impacted the Pro business, which improved as conditions moderated, and expressed confidence in the Pro strategy. On tariffs, CFO Brandon Sink stated the full-year gross margin guide of roughly flat already accounts for potential impacts. Due to FIFO accounting and current inventory levels, any cost increases are expected to flow through in the second half of the year, which is baked into the company's financial plan and mitigation efforts.

Christopher Horvers asked about the progression of Marketplace growth and fulfillment services profitability, the expected trajectory of this alternate profit pool, and whether Walmart has observed any impact from significant tax stimulus on U.S. consumer spending.

Answer

CFO John David Rainey characterized Marketplace as an area of ongoing investment focused on growth, with many categories growing over 40% in the recent quarter. He highlighted that 52% of sellers use Walmart Fulfillment Services, which continues to see increasing penetration. Regarding tax refunds, Rainey confirmed that an increase is assumed in their guidance, acknowledging Walmart's sensitivity to these shifts.

Christopher Horvers asked about the progression of Marketplace growth and fulfillment services, their expected profitability, and how Walmart is observing the impact of tax stimulus on U.S. consumer spending.

Answer

CFO John David Rainey stated that Marketplace is an area of ongoing investment focused on growth rather than immediate standalone profitability, with many categories growing over 40%. He highlighted that 52% of sellers utilize Walmart Fulfillment Services, with increasing penetration. Regarding tax refunds, Rainey confirmed that an increase is assumed in the guidance, acknowledging Walmart's sensitivity to these shifts and the need to estimate how much will be saved versus spent.

Christopher Horvers posed a multi-part question on Walmart U.S. grocery performance, asking about the impact of port strikes and SNAP on low single-digit trends, expectations for a return to mid-single-digit growth, the influence of disinflation (eggs, tariffs), and whether price investments were to counter narrowing gaps or intentionally widen them.

Answer

President and CEO, Walmart U.S., John Furner, explained that Walmart's pricing philosophy is to maintain everyday low prices and invest in value, citing holiday offers like a Thanksgiving meal for under $4 per person and 97-cent Butterball turkeys. He emphasized focusing on unit growth and unit share in food, especially fresh food, over dollar share. He also noted anticipated egg deflation and ongoing inflation in the beef category.

Christopher Horvers posed a multi-part question on U.S. Grocery, asking about the impact of the Port Strike and SNAP on low single-digit performance, expectations for a return to mid-single-digit growth, and the influence of disinflation. He also inquired if price investments were aimed at narrowing or intentionally widening price gaps.

Answer

John Furner (President and CEO, Walmart U.S.) stated that Walmart consistently aims to keep prices low and invest in price, maintaining an everyday low price philosophy. He highlighted the Thanksgiving meal offer (feeding 10 for under $4, turkeys at 97 cents/pound, lowest since 2019) and the focus on unit growth, which was stronger than dollar share growth in food. He also noted anticipated egg deflation but longer-term inflation in the beef category.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the competitive dynamics of a rival's expansion in grocery delivery, asking how it impacts Walmart's advantages and if it necessitates faster investment.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Doug Mcmillon responded that expecting competitors to improve is factored into their strategy. He emphasized that Walmart remains focused on executing its own plan centered on customer needs for price, assortment, and convenience, which have been key drivers of the business.

Christopher Horvers asked for insights into consumer behavior, specifically regarding share gains with upper-income households and whether the lower-end consumer is showing signs of weakness or trading down.

Answer

Walmart U.S. CEO John Furner stated that Walmart saw growth across all income cohorts during the quarter, with customers consistently prioritizing value and delivery speed. He noted a strong April, driven by seasonal events. An executive from Sam's Club added that their warehouse model resonates across all income levels, evidenced by strong membership growth and renewal rates.

Christopher Horvers asked about the changes to the Q4 operating income guidance, changes in gross margin expectations, and whether the U.S. e-commerce business could reach profitability in the fourth quarter.

Answer

CFO John David Rainey noted a modest improvement in the implied Q4 outlook, with shrink performing better than expected. CEO Doug McMillon emphasized they are not racing to e-commerce profitability, preferring to make long-term investments in customer experience and delivery speed. He stated he is confident in future profitability but is not focused on a specific timeline.

Chris Horvers asked about Barbie's performance, noting it was flat in Q4 but down for the full year, and inquired about the innovation strategy and expected timeline for Barbie to return to growth.

Answer

Ynon Kreiz (Chairman and CEO, Mattel) noted Barbie's improving Q4 trends (flat) but full-year decline due to category trends and non-core segments. He expressed strong confidence in Barbie as the number one doll, expecting improving trends in 2026 and a return to healthy growth in 2027, driven by a new brand-centric strategy, multiple touchpoints (entertainment, content, games), and broadening demographics (adult fans). Chris Horvers also asked about the financial dynamics of the Mattel163 acquisition, specifically how revenues will be grossed up and its effect on the business's margin structure post-acquisition. Paul Ruh (CFO, Mattel) stated that for 2026, a partial year contribution of about $150 million in sales is expected. The equity method investment will disappear, and royalties will be replaced by full-year revenue recognized by the JV, with Mattel163 financials integrated into the business. He emphasized its accretive nature from both top-line and margin perspectives.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about headwinds in the pricing architecture across brands, the potential for Barbie to return to growth, and the timing of tariff mitigation actions.

Answer

CEO Ynon Kreiz highlighted the strength of Mattel's diverse price points, noting 40-50% of U.S. products remain under $20, and expressed confidence that Barbie trends will improve in the second half. CFO Paul Ruh confirmed that tariff costs and mitigating actions are expected to be mostly aligned, with the main impact flowing through the P&L starting in Q3.

Christopher Horvers asked if Q1 gross margin exceeded expectations, what percentage of products were under $20 last year, and when Mattel might see shelf space gains from competitor disruptions.

Answer

CFO Anthony DiSilvestro confirmed that Q1 gross margin was slightly better than expected and noted that the percentage of products priced under $20 last year was slightly higher than the 40-50% range projected under the new tariff scenarios. Management did not provide a specific timeline for potential shelf space gains but reiterated their focus on being a reliable supply partner for retailers.

Christopher Horvers asked for the key puts and takes for the 2025 gross margin guidance and whether the impact from tariffs and offsetting price increases would create timing lags through the year.

Answer

CFO Anthony DiSilvestro detailed the gross margin drivers. Headwinds include cost inflation and tariffs. These are expected to be offset by tailwinds from tariff-mitigating actions, fixed cost absorption, and an additional $60 million in savings from the 'optimizing for profitable growth' program. He acknowledged a potential lag in executing actions but affirmed the company's plan to maintain a comparable gross margin for the full year.

Christopher Horvers sought to clarify if the slight change in the top-line outlook was due to year-to-date performance or a revised Q4 view. He also asked about Mattel's tariff exposure from its manufacturing base in China.

Answer

CFO Anthony DiSilvestro indicated the guidance change was more a function of year-to-date performance, reiterating confidence in Q4 growth. CEO Ynon Kreiz addressed tariffs by highlighting Mattel's diversified supply chain, noting that only about 50% of its manufacturing is in China, compared to an industry average of 80-85%, and this percentage has been declining.

Christopher Horvers requested a narration of the puts and takes for Consumer Products (CP) margins in Q4 2025, given strong sales growth but a year-over-year margin decline, focusing on sales allowances, cost savings, and tariffs.

Answer

CFO Gina Goetter explained that Q4 CP benefited from nice volume growth, a good business mix, and promotional discipline. However, tariffs were the primary headwind, with 60%-65% of the $40 million in 2025 tariff costs hitting in Q4. For 2026, while volume and mix will be positive, tariffs and increased royalties will keep CP margins in the 6%-8% range.

Christopher Horvers asked CFO Gina Goetter to simplify the 2026 operating margin outlook, which projects about 30 basis points of expansion, by bucketing the headwinds from royalties, digital gaming costs, and tariffs. He specifically questioned why digital gaming costs would be a headwind in 2026 if games launch in 2027. He also requested a narration of the puts and takes for Consumer Products' margins in Q4 2025, given strong sales growth but a year-over-year decline in margins.

Answer

CFO Gina Goetter identified volume, mix, and pricing as positive margin contributors for 2026. Headwinds include increased royalties (1-1.5 points of drag), higher tariff costs ($60 million in 2026 vs. $40 million in 2025, offsetting cost productivity), and increased investments in marketing for video game releases and product development. For Q4 2025 CP margins, she noted positive volume/mix and promotional discipline, but tariffs were the primary drag, with 60%-65% of the year's tariff costs hitting in that quarter. For 2026, CP margins will continue to face tariff headwinds and increased royalty expenses, keeping them in the 6%-8% range.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the real-time impact of tariffs on industry pricing and consumer behavior, POS trends for Hasbro versus the toy industry in Q2, and whether major retailers are shifting inventory risk to Hasbro via their marketplace platforms.

Answer

CEO Chris Cocks stated that while the toy industry was up in Q2, it was concentrated in cards, with other categories flat to down. He noted tariff impacts on consumer prices are not yet significant but are expected to creep up. CFO & COO Gina Goetter added that mix shifts will be used to protect key price points. Cocks confirmed they have not seen retailers pushing for a marketplace inventory risk model, though the shift to domestic fulfillment is a form of risk transfer.

Christopher Horvers inquired about U.S. point-of-sale trends in early 2025 and asked for context on the upcoming MAGIC: THE GATHERING launches, specifically comparing the potential of Final Fantasy and Spider-Man to the success of Lord of the Rings.

Answer

CFO and COO Gina Goetter confirmed that Q1 trends are tracking with the company's guidance for a mid-to-high single-digit decline. CEO Chris Cocks expressed high confidence in the Final Fantasy set, noting its preorders sold out significantly faster than Lord of the Rings. He added that the Spider-Man set will be smaller in scope but is still expected to have very strong demand.

Christopher Horvers asked about the specific revenue impact from exited brands on the Consumer Products segment in Q3 and Q4, and sought confirmation on the long-term durability of Monopoly Go! revenue.

Answer

CFO Gina Goetter quantified the exited brands' impact at about $25 million in Q3, with a similar amount expected in Q4. CEO Chris Cocks clarified that these are now out-licensed brands that are growing and will generate healthier royalties in the future. Regarding Monopoly Go!, he stated he expects 2025 revenue to be 'flat to up' versus 2024.

Christopher Horvers asked how the self-help benefits from initiatives like pet prescriptions, final mile delivery, and direct sales are expected to build, their material contribution to comparable store sales, and their potential to reduce macro sensitivity in 2027.

Answer

CEO Hal Lawton stated that these initiatives are expected to provide material benefits to comparable store sales in 2026, building on nominal benefits from 2025. He highlighted the strong pace of direct sales, with the first sales rep hitting $1 million and the team exceeding $2 million in December, projecting a 40-ish basis points impact on comp. He also noted the scaling of pet and Rx, and the three-fold purpose of final mile in driving down delivery costs, enabling direct sales, and fulfilling future demand.

Christopher Horvers asked how self-help benefits from initiatives like prescriptions, final mile, and direct sales are expected to build, when they will become a more significant portion of comparable store sales (making the business less macro-sensitive), and if there's an inflection point this year or in 2027, with any quantification.

Answer

CEO Hal Lawton stated that these initiatives are expected to provide material benefits to comparable store sales in 2026, building on nominal benefits from 2025. He highlighted that direct sales are targeting significant dollars, potentially impacting comp by around 40 basis points, and pet and Rx are also scaling. Final mile serves to reduce delivery costs, enable direct sales, and fulfill future demand.

Chris Horvers followed up on the top line, asking if the 50-60 basis point lift from spring/summer seasonal demand shifting into Q3 was a smaller tailwind in September due to fall headwinds. He also asked if the ticket component of comp could be up 2.5% or more in Q4, given the mix shift towards imported goods and the ongoing pricing rollout.

Answer

Kurt Barton (EVP, CFO and Treasurer) clarified that Q3 overall was favorable from a weather perspective, with July and August being strong, despite a headwind at the tail end. He estimated a point of comp benefit from good weather conditions in Q3. Regarding Q4 ticket, he anticipated a similar, possibly slightly higher, impact than Q3, benefiting from a stable commodity market and slight input cost increases, including tariffs. He noted that both transactions and ticket would contribute, with ticket potentially more outsized in Q4.

Chris Horvers followed up on the top line, asking if the 50-60 basis point tailwind from the spring seasonal demand shift into Q3 was smaller due to September weather. He also asked if the Q4 ticket component, considering tariffs and a mix shift towards imported goods, could potentially be up 2.5% or more.

Answer

Kurt Barton, EVP, CFO and Treasurer, stated that Q3 overall was favorable from a weather perspective, contributing about a point of comparable store sales benefit, despite a headwind in September. For Q4 ticket, he anticipates a similar, or slightly higher, impact than Q3, benefiting from stable commodity markets and slight input cost increases, including tariffs. He suggested that Q4 ticket could be more outsized than Q3, with transactions moving in line with demand, particularly cold winter weather.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned if weather was a net headwind in Q2, the implied comp run-rate for June and July, and the explicit inflation expectations for the second half of the year.

Answer

President & CEO Hal Lawton confirmed spring was delayed and extended, but noted the core consumable business remains strong. He indicated that the midpoint of the annual guidance implies a comp higher than 2% for the back half. CFO Kurt Barton added that this implies incremental inflation across all product categories, not just commodities.

Speaking for Chris Horvers, Barath Ra questioned the assumptions in the Q2 guide regarding big-ticket sales and the Easter shift, and asked what drives the high end of the updated full-year comp guidance.

Answer

CEO Hal Lawton stated the Q2 guidance is conservative, assuming no significant recovery in big-ticket sales but continued strength in C.U.E. categories. He noted that current run rates from March and April were flowed through, and while they are hopeful for an over-performance, the outlook remains prudent.

Christopher Horvers asked about the financial impact of recent hurricanes, questioning what benefit is embedded in Q4 guidance, if emergency response sales create gross margin headwinds, and when the SG&A headwind from the new distribution center will abate.

Answer

CFO Kurt Barton stated that recent hurricanes provide a modest benefit to Q4, which is incorporated into the guidance. He clarified that the product mix from emergency response sales is not expected to materially impact Q4 gross margin. Barton also noted the SG&A headwind from the new DC will begin to cycle out after 9-12 months, with more specific 2025 details to be provided in the next earnings call.

Christopher Horvers inquired about the impact of recent hurricanes on Q4 business, the implied comparable sales target, and the associated margin effects, specifically regarding emergency response sales and SG&A headwinds from a new distribution center.

Answer

CFO Kurt Barton explained that while storms dampened traffic late in Q3, it created a timing shift that is providing a modest sales benefit in Q4. He stated that the product mix from emergency response is not expected to materially impact gross margin and confirmed the SG&A headwind from the new DC will begin to cycle out after 9-12 months.

Christopher Horvers asked if there's concern about traffic growth necessitating more price investment, and how the accelerated growth in executive members per week from Q4 to Q1 relates to the overall benefit of extended operating hours, including sales lift and sign-ups.

Answer

Gary Millerchip (CFO, Costco Wholesale Corporation) stated that overall sales trends have been consistent, averaging around 6.5% growth over the last seven months, driven by value, quality, and newness. He noted that extended operating hours and Instacart benefits have positively impacted executive upgrades, offsetting some expected cycling of gift cards and gold sales.

Christopher Horvers inquired about any concerns regarding traffic trends that might prompt further price investments and asked about the accelerated growth of executive members per week from Q4 to Q1, specifically the benefits of extended operating hours on sales lift and new sign-ups.

Answer

Gary Millerchip, Chief Financial Officer, noted consistent sales trends over the last 6-12 months, with average growth around 6.5%, despite monthly fluctuations. He affirmed Costco's focus on delivering value, quality, and newness to drive membership growth and frequency. Regarding executive membership, he expressed satisfaction with the response to extended hours and Instacart benefits, citing a positive uptick in upgrades and an estimated 1% sales lift from earlier opening hours.

Christopher Horvers asked about the awareness and impact of Costco's extended member hours, specifically regarding the 1% comparable sales lift and its potential for future growth.

Answer

President and CEO Ron Vachris stated that communication efforts, including in-warehouse signage and emails to executive members, have effectively informed members. He noted the 1% sales lift was observed after analyzing business compared to prior months, and the company is pleased with the initial response. CFO Gary Millerchip added that while the full impact may take more time to unfold, the national launch received significant visibility.

Christopher Horvers asked about the effectiveness and awareness of Costco's extended member hours, inquiring if the June 30th launch was soft or hard, and the potential for the initial 1% comp lift to grow significantly.

Answer

President and CEO Ron Vachris stated that communication efforts, including in-warehouse signage and emails, have effectively informed members, with the 1% comp lift based on analyzed traffic. CFO Gary Millerchip added that while initial impacts were positive, the full effect on member shopping behavior might take more time to unfold.

Christopher Horvers inquired about the awareness and impact of Costco's extended member hours, specifically whether the June 30th launch was soft or hard, and the potential for the initial 1% comparable sales lift to grow.

Answer

President and CEO Ron Vachris stated that communication efforts, including in-warehouse signage and emails to executive members, have effectively informed members, with the 1% sales lift reflecting analysis against prior months. EVP & CFO Gary Millerchip added that while the national launch gained visibility, the full impact on member shopping behavior may take more time to unfold.

Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for clarification on whether improving price gaps were due to competitors raising prices and sought to quantify the extent of any demand pull-forward in non-food categories related to anticipated tariffs.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Ron Vachris attributed the improved price delta to Costco's focus on being the 'first one down' when commodity costs fall, rather than competitor actions. He confirmed that buyers proactively pulled forward summer goods like patio and sporting goods to get ahead of tariffs, which helped hold prices. However, he stated it was 'very tough to quantify' any specific percentage of sales pull-forward from members.

Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for clarification on changing price gaps with competitors and sought to quantify the extent of any demand pull-forward in non-food categories due to tariff concerns.

Answer

President and CEO Ron Vachris attributed Costco's improving price delta to its strategy of being the first retailer to lower prices when costs fall. He confirmed that buyers proactively pulled forward summer goods, like patio and sporting goods, to get ahead of tariffs, which helped stabilize prices. However, he noted that it was "very tough" to quantify any specific percentage of sales pull-forward driven by consumer fears.

Christopher Horvers asked about the potential impact of weather on February's strong comparable sales and inquired about Costco's strategy for passing through potential tariffs on fresh foods from Mexico.

Answer

Executive Ron Vachris acknowledged that while there were some weather impacts, the company recovered most of the sales. Regarding tariffs on groceries, he explained that buyers treat them like any other cost increase, working closely with suppliers to mitigate the impact and maintain efficiency, emphasizing Costco's agility in managing costs.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the drivers of the core-on-core margin performance, the strategy for reinvesting the membership fee increase into price, and requested a definition of the hardware category.

Answer

Executive Gary Millerchip explained that the 3 basis point increase in core-on-core margin resulted from flat margins in foods, a slight decrease in nonfoods, and a slight increase in fresh foods. Executive Ron Vachris defined the hardware category as including storage, plumbing, lighting, power tools, and batteries. He also affirmed that Costco will continue its historical practice of investing in price, particularly leading with its Kirkland Signature brand to set an example for vendors.

Christopher Horvers inquired about the potential risk from an emerging port strike, its impact on specific categories, and what contingency plans Costco has for holiday inventory. He also asked about expectations for ocean freight rates.

Answer

Ron Vachris, an executive, stated that Costco has been monitoring the port strike situation closely. He noted that nonfoods, which are about 25% of the business, are most affected. The company has enacted contingency plans, including clearing ports, pre-shipping holiday goods, and planning for alternate port routing. Regarding freight, he mentioned that Costco is insulated by contracts, and while the spot market peaked last quarter, it is now declining.

Jolie, on behalf of Christopher Horvers, questioned if the lift from the combined Nike and Jordan brands was less than originally expected, given the high single-digit growth this quarter compared to 'meaningful double digit' last quarter, or if broader macro trends were a greater factor. She also asked about the wide range of the implied Q4 comp guidance (down 3.5% to up 3.5%) and the puts and takes for hitting the high and low ends.

Answer

CEO Steve Lawrence affirmed that the Nike and Jordan initiative was meeting or exceeding expectations, noting that if ammunition sales were excluded, the company would have posted a positive comp. He attributed the drag to the anniversary of the election run-up impacting ammo sales. CFO Carl Ford explained that the wide Q4 comp range was due to localized weather and consumer response to elevated average unit retails (AURs). He stated that the midpoint of the guidance is flat, with the downside implying worsening elasticity and the upside reflecting a better consumer response.

Christopher Horvers inquired about the persistence of episodic consumer shopping patterns post-back-to-school and the impact of tariff-related pricing on average ticket, questioning the timeline for future price adjustments.

Answer

CEO Steve Lawrence acknowledged ongoing episodic shopping but expressed optimism for the back half due to lapping softer prior-year comps. He stated that while AURs were up low to mid-single digits from initial tariff impacts, more price adjustments are expected in H2 2025, with the goal of completing them this year.

Christopher Horvers inquired about consumer shopping patterns, specifically the episodic nature of purchases around holidays versus softer periods, and asked about post-back-to-school trends in August and potential attenuation of these 'valleys' later in the year. He also asked about the impact of tariff pricing on average unit retail (AUR) and average ticket, and whether tariff-related pricing adjustments would conclude in the second half of the current year or extend into the first half of fiscal 2026.

Answer

CEO Steve Lawrence confirmed the continuation of episodic shopping, noting positive back-to-school comps in late July/early August, followed by a slight pullback post-back-to-school due to less clearance and a shift in hunting season. He expressed optimism for the remainder of the quarter, anticipating improvement as the company laps softer comps from the previous year. Regarding tariffs, Mr. Lawrence stated that AURs were up low to mid-single digits, contributing to the 1.5% average ticket increase. He expects more price adjustments in the back half as tariffs impact costs, aiming to complete most adjustments this year, but acknowledged the fluid environment and emphasized Academy's strong value proposition.

Jolie Wasserman, for Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co., asked about the combined March-April sales trend to normalize for the Easter shift and questioned if Q2 promotions were higher year-over-year.

Answer

CEO Steven Lawrence stated that the combined March-April period was down low-single digits, attributing April's positive comp more to the Nike and Jordan launches than the Easter shift. He characterized Q2 promotions as fairly consistent with the prior year, explaining that some targeted offers are designed to drive loyalty program enrollment, which has a high lifetime value. He also noted the Stanley promotion was a standard markdown on discontinued colors.

Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about recent sales trends, questioning the balance between weather impacts and consumer uncertainty, and inquired about the expected comp contribution from new stores and the Nike launch in fiscal 2025.

Answer

CEO Steven Lawrence acknowledged a soft start to the quarter but noted a rebound as weather improved, suggesting consumer caution is factored into guidance. He stated that the 2022 vintage of new stores outperformed the base, and this tailwind will grow as the 2023 and 2024 vintages are added to the comp base. He also noted the Jordan launch will make it a top 20 brand for the company in its first year.

Christopher Horvers sought to quantify the positive comp in August and understand how much of it was due to a back-to-school timing shift. He also asked about any other cadence items to consider for the back half, such as store opening timing or gross margin drivers.

Answer

CEO Steve Lawrence declined to give a specific number for the August comp but noted it was a significant positive trajectory change that sustained throughout the month beyond just back-to-school categories. For back-half cadence, he mentioned that 9 new stores will open in Q3, with the rest in early Q4, and highlighted the challenge of the compressed holiday calendar. CFO Carl Ford added that the election can also impact quarterly cadence for certain categories.

Christopher Horvers asked for a deeper understanding of the margin and accretion benefits from Best Buy's marketplace and ads businesses, specifically their contribution to the gross margin in the second half and whether their margin rates are expected to accelerate as they scale. He also inquired about holiday planning, noting the similar promotional calendar but challenging November comparisons from last year, and asked for insights into current November trends and the expected cadence over the quarter.

Answer

Matt Bilunas, Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, confirmed that both ads and marketplace positively impacted the gross profit rate in the second half, expecting continued scaling and gross margin benefits from increased GMV and net commissions. He noted that the operating income rate impact depends on future investment levels in technology and talent, but believes these initiatives offer a good return over time. Corie Barry, CEO, added that the overarching goal is to enhance customer relevance, drive more units, and leverage partnerships to create a business flywheel. Jason Bonfig, Chief Customer Product and Fulfillment Officer, explained that they are lapping strong sales from early November last year (5% growth) and that the shape of Q4 will differ, with easier comparisons in December. He emphasized that customers are gravitating towards major holiday events, and Best Buy still sees opportunities for sales growth.

Christopher Horvers asked for a deeper understanding of the margin and accretion benefits from Best Buy's marketplace and ads businesses, specifically their contribution to gross margin in the second half of the year. He also questioned whether the margin rate of these businesses is expected to accelerate as they scale in 2026, and how holiday planning is progressing, including promotional calendars, November performance given last year's strong sales, and the cadence over the quarter.

Answer

Matt Bilunas, Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, confirmed that both marketplace and ads positively impacted the gross profit rate in the second half, with expectations for continued scaling and expansion to drive future gross profit rates. He noted that the operating income rate depends on investment needs for technology and talent, but the company anticipates good long-term returns. Corie Barry, CEO, emphasized that the overarching goal is to enhance customer relevance, drive unit sales, and leverage partnerships. Jason Bonfig, Chief Customer Product and Fulfillment Officer, explained that Q4 is lapping strong sales from last year, particularly in November, making December comparisons easier. He expects sales growth, with the shape of the quarter differing from last year despite similar promotional timing, as customers gravitate towards major holiday events.

Christopher Horvers inquired about the mechanics of the estimated 1-point comparable sales headwind from a 10% China tariff, questioning if it assumes price hikes are offset by unit elasticity and if it translates linearly to a $0.20 EPS impact. He also asked about the potential impact from tariffs on goods sourced from Mexico.

Answer

CFO Matthew Bilunas explained the 1-point impact is a ballpark estimate assuming vendors pass on costs, leading to price increases and subsequent unit declines, but cautioned against a simple linear EPS calculation due to other business investments and mitigants. CEO Corie Barry added that the unprecedented breadth of the tariffs makes historical elasticity models unreliable and warned against assuming a linear impact if tariff rates change. Regarding Mexico, which accounts for about 20% of sourcing, EVP Jason Bonfig noted it primarily affects large-screen TVs, appliances, and exclusive brands.

Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if the flat quarter-to-date comp was adjusted for calendar shifts and questioned if the Q2 SG&A dollar amount was a proper baseline for the second half, given labor investments and the timing of cost savings.

Answer

CFO Matt Bilunas stated that both July and August comps were approximately flat, showing an improved trend, but declined to parse weekly shift impacts. He clarified that Q2 SG&A is not the right baseline for the second half, as H1 favorability will not repeat. Key reasons include lapping prior-year operating model changes, higher planned store payroll to support better sales, the non-recurrence of a $40M vendor support geography change, and a one-time benefit from lower medical claims in H1.

Christopher Horvers inquired about the implied Q4 operating margin of approximately 10.3%, specifically asking if 50 basis points were due to the 53rd week lap and if SRS and GMS seasonality structurally change the normal flow of operating margin. He also observed improving two-year trends in Q3, suggesting replacement cycle demand, and questioned why the launch point into 2026 wouldn't be better than the current 1% underlying demand, given factors like reduced uncertainty and aging housing stock.

Answer

Richard McPhail, EVP and CFO, advised using the full-year guide as the appropriate jumping-off point due to Q4 noise from the 53rd week and the amplified seasonal swings of SRS and GMS, which have lower Q4 volumes. He also clarified the pro forma impact of GMS and SRS on gross and operating margins. Ted Decker, Chair, President, and CEO, acknowledged potential positives like robust tax returns in 2026 but reiterated that ongoing consumer uncertainty, housing turnover, and home price adjustments are newer, near-term phenomena impacting demand.

Christopher Horvers sought clarification on the implied Q4 operating margin, specifically the impact of the 53rd week lap and whether the seasonality of SRS and GMS structurally alters the normal flow of operating margin throughout the year.

Answer

Billy Bastek, Executive Vice President of Merchandising, advised using the full-year guidance as the appropriate jumping-off point for modeling, citing Q4's noise from the 53rd week and the amplified seasonal low points for GMS and SRS. Richard McPhail, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, further clarified the pro forma impact of GMS on the margin profile, noting approximately 40 basis points on gross margin and 20 basis points on operating margin, and the combined SRS/GMS impact on fiscal year 2025 margins due to varying ownership periods.

Christopher Horvers asked about the expected comp cadence for the second half of the year, considering various puts and takes. He also requested a bigger-picture view on the GMS acquisition, asking to compare it to the SRS business and understand why buying was preferable to building out those capabilities organically.

Answer

Chair, CEO & President Ted Decker stated that no significant comp acceleration is needed to meet the full-year guidance. He clarified that the Q2 ticket increase was driven by a mix shift towards big-ticket items, not broad inflation. Regarding the GMS acquisition, Decker described it as a highly complementary vertical to SRS, sharing a similar asset-light business model. He emphasized that acquiring GMS's established network of 400 distribution nodes, sales force, and customer relationships was a strategic move to accelerate the Pro ecosystem and gain share more effectively than building from scratch.

Christopher Horvers asked for insights into the overall demand environment, questioning if Q1 sales trends understated business momentum due to weather and other noise. He also inquired about the significant year-over-year increase in SG&A expenses and the outlook for SG&A growth.

Answer

CEO Edward Decker addressed the demand environment, noting that while macro uncertainty and high interest rates are delaying large remodeling projects, the consumer remains healthy and engaged in smaller projects. EVP and CFO Richard McPhail explained that the SG&A increase was influenced by overlapping a prior-year legal settlement and the addition of SRS expenses. He reaffirmed that underlying expense management is on track and detailed the drivers for the full-year operating margin guidance, attributing the decline to natural deleverage, the SRS acquisition mix, and the 53rd week comparison.

Christopher Horvers asked for insights into the overall demand environment, questioning if Q1 trends understated business momentum, and inquired about the significant year-over-year increase in SG&A expenses.

Answer

CEO Edward Decker characterized the consumer as healthy but noted that stubbornly high interest rates are delaying larger remodeling projects, despite a cumulative $50 billion shortfall in home improvement spending. CFO Richard McPhail explained the SG&A growth was primarily due to overlapping a prior-year legal settlement and the inclusion of SRS acquisition expenses. He reaffirmed full-year guidance, breaking down the expected operating margin decline into impacts from natural deleverage, the SRS acquisition, and the shift from a 53-week to a 52-week year.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the drivers behind the strength in appliances and paint, questioning if it was volume-driven and if the replacement cycle could accelerate further. He also requested color on the monthly U.S. comp trend, adjusted for holiday shifts, and the impact of weather in January.

Answer

CEO Ted Decker noted that the post-COVID spending shift has largely played out, and engagement in smaller projects is strengthening. EVP of Merchandising William Bastek confirmed broad-based strength with record sales in appliances and Gift Center, though pressure remains on financed projects. EVP and CFO Richard McPhail stated that while holiday shifts impacted monthly comps, weather in January was 'horrible' and negatively affected results.

Christopher Horvers asked about elasticity concerns, why Q4 comparable store sales might not exceed inflation, and O'Reilly's long-term unit growth potential in the U.S. and internationally.

Answer

Jeremy Fletcher (CFO, O'Reilly Automotive) noted Q4 is a difficult comparison period and while cautious on consumer reaction to price levels, there's no implicit forecast of worsening elasticity. Brad Beckham (CEO, O'Reilly Automotive) expressed confidence in new store cohorts, increasing U.S. store potential due to industry consolidation, and excitement for international growth in Mexico and Canada, with Canadian expansion starting in 2026.

Christopher Horvers asked about the implications of mid-single-digit inflation for Q4 comparable store sales, questioning why comps wouldn't be higher than inflation, and inquired about the long-term U.S. store potential and the acceleration of international unit growth in Mexico and Canada.

Answer

CFO Jeremy Fletcher stated that Q4 guidance incorporates various factors, including cautious consumer reaction, but no implicit forecast of worsening elasticity. CEO Brad Beckham expressed confidence in new store cohorts and the potential for increased U.S. store count due to industry consolidation. He highlighted Mexico as a huge mid-to-long-term opportunity and announced Canada expansion starting in 2026, noting its similar car park to the U.S.

Christopher Horvers asked about O'Reilly's pricing strategy regarding tariffs, specifically if they would price ahead of costs, and whether the current environment creates a market share opportunity from stressed independent competitors.

Answer

CFO Jeremy Fletcher stated that O'Reilly's approach is to align market pricing with when costs flow through their financials to avoid a LIFO accounting mismatch. Executive Brad Beckham added that cost increases are typically negotiated and shared with suppliers, not fully passed through. Regarding market share, Beckham said the situation could create disruption for smaller competitors who lack O'Reilly's scale and flexible private label portfolio, presenting a potential opportunity.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for the specific comp benefit from the Q4 calendar shift and followed up on the company's exposure to China and its ability to pass through potential tariffs.

Answer

CFO Jeremy Fletcher estimated the benefit from one less Sunday in Q4 is around 30-40 basis points. On tariffs, President Brent Kirby stated China exposure has been reduced by over 500 basis points. Fletcher added that while the industry is disciplined in passing on costs, the larger risk from high tariffs would be a broader squeeze on the consumer, potentially leading to trade-downs.

Christopher Horvers sought a deeper understanding of AutoZone's long-term growth opportunity in Mexico, including current market share, overall market size, and the potential to double their store base. He also followed up on LIFO charges, asking if the projected numbers assume 3% inflation, and whether SG&A per store growth in FY26 would be weighted towards the back half of the year.

Answer

President and CEO Philip Daniele highlighted significant long-term growth potential in Mexico, noting AutoZone's store count advantage over fragmented competitors and opportunities in dense southern markets like Mexico City. CFO Jamere Jackson added that Mexico's older car park and AutoZone's differentiated offering make them bullish on accelerating store growth. Mr. Jackson confirmed that inflation is expected to creep up, potentially with mid-single-digit increments due to tariffs, which could keep LIFO in the projected range. He also stated that SG&A per store growth for FY26 is expected to be mid-single digits, with some acceleration in the back half due to increased store openings.

Christopher Horvers posed a long-term question regarding AutoZone's growth opportunity in Mexico, asking about current market share, the overall market size, and the potential to double the existing store base of approximately 900 stores. He also asked if the LIFO numbers provided were predicated on a 3% inflation rate for the remainder of the year and whether SG&A per store growth in FY2026 would be weighted towards the back half due to store opening timing.

Answer

Phil Daniele, CEO and President, highlighted significant opportunities for store and share growth in Mexico, noting a fragmented competitive landscape where AutoZone holds a substantial store count advantage. Jamere Jackson, CFO, added that Mexico's car park is older than the U.S., reinforcing the bullish outlook and plans for accelerated store growth. Regarding LIFO, Jamere Jackson indicated that inflation is expected to creep up, potentially by mid-single-digit increments due to tariffs, which could keep LIFO in the current range. For SG&A per store growth in FY2026, Jackson expects mid-single digits for the year, with a slight acceleration in the back half due to increased store openings.

Christopher Horvers asked about the long-term growth opportunity in Mexico, including market share, market size, and the potential to double the store base. He also followed up on LIFO, asking if the projected numbers assume 3% inflation, and whether SG&A per store growth in FY26 would be weighted towards the back half of the year.

Answer

Phil Daniele, CEO and President, highlighted significant long-term store and share growth opportunities in Mexico, particularly in dense southern markets. Jamere Jackson, CFO, added that Mexico's older car park, fragmented market, and AutoZone's strong competitive position make them bullish on accelerating store growth. Jamere Jackson also noted that inflation is expected to creep up, potentially with additional mid-single-digit increments, which could keep LIFO charges in the current range. SG&A per store growth for FY26 is anticipated to be mid-single digits for the year, with a slight acceleration in the back half due to store opening timing.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the timing of tariff impacts on inflation, the persistence of gross margin headwinds like shrink and self-insurance costs, SG&A trends, and for an Easter-adjusted monthly sales cadence.

Answer

CFO Jamere Jackson stated that gross margin headwinds from new distribution center ramp-ups and shrink are expected to abate in Q4. He noted that about half of the SG&A deleverage was due to self-insurance costs from a growing commercial delivery fleet and settling older claims. He declined to provide an Easter-adjusted sales cadence but emphasized the encouraging trend of regaining market share in the DIY segment.

Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the timing of tariff impacts, the persistence of gross margin headwinds like shrink and self-insurance, SG&A trends, and the monthly sales cadence adjusted for the Easter holiday shift.

Answer

CFO Jamere Jackson stated that tariff impacts are delayed due to slow inventory turns. He projected that gross margin pressures from DC ramp-ups and shrink would abate in Q4. Jackson attributed about half of the SG&A deleverage to self-insurance costs tied to the growing commercial business and noted the company would not provide an Easter-adjusted cadence but emphasized strong underlying trends.

Christian Carlino, on for Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co., questioned the potential impact of new tariffs from China, including the role of exclusions, Mexico sourcing exposure, and the effect on suppliers in free trade zones.

Answer

Executive Philip Daniele explained that the situation is still developing, but AutoZone has been actively diversifying its supply chain since the last round of tariffs. He expressed confidence that the company can maintain its margin profile through vendor negotiations and rational industry-wide pricing actions, as has been the case historically.

Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the drivers of gross margin expansion, excluding LIFO, and asked about the company's flexibility to increase its leverage target above the stated 2.5x level.

Answer

CFO Jamere Jackson attributed the ex-LIFO gross margin improvement to strong merchandising actions, which offset drags from new DC ramp-ups. He also confirmed the company has flexibility around its 2.5x leverage target, referring to it as the '2.5x area,' which allows for temporary adjustments.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for AutoZone's perspective on the current growth rates of the domestic DIY and commercial markets, and followed up on the gross margin and FX impact related to the 53rd week in the quarter.

Answer

CEO Philip Daniele attributed DIY pressure to weakness in discretionary categories. CFO Jamere Jackson estimated the DIY market was down low-single-digits due to muted inflation and consumer sentiment, while the commercial market was flat to slightly declining. Jackson also noted that the 53rd week's financial impact can be noisy due to allocations and should not be over-analyzed.

Christopher Horvers asked about the key drivers behind Ulta's market share gains, seeking to understand the attribution between fading competitive pressures and the company's own self-help initiatives and newness.

Answer

President and CEO Kecia Steelman attributed the success primarily to Ulta's unique all-price-point model and improved operational execution, which has lifted in-store conversion and NPS. She also credited a strong pipeline of newness and enhanced marketing efforts that have increased social relevance and the brand's 'cool factor' with guests.

Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan Chase & Co. sought to disaggregate the drivers of market share gains between the fading of competitive headwinds and Ulta's improved execution. He also asked about the lingering impact of the prior year's ERP disruption on the upcoming second quarter.

Answer

President & CEO Kecia Steelman acknowledged that it's difficult to precisely quantify but believes both factors—lapping competitor openings and improved operational execution—contributed to performance. She emphasized focusing on 'controlling the controllables' like guest experience and in-stocks. Steelman noted that Q2 of last year was when ERP-related in-stock issues were most acute, suggesting a potential upside opportunity for the upcoming quarter.

Christopher Horvers asked if performance was positive quarter-to-date and how the company views the impact of five fewer holiday shopping days. He also asked how the strong Q3 results affect the 2025 outlook, particularly the 11% operating margin floor discussed at Investor Day.

Answer

CFO Paula Oyibo stated that the holiday season is off to a solid start but declined to give a specific quarter-to-date comp. She confirmed the Q4 guidance for a low single-digit comp decline accounts for the dynamic environment, including the compressed holiday calendar. Regarding 2025, she reiterated that it remains a transitional year and that the company is committed to delivering an operating margin of at least 11%, consistent with the directional color provided at the Investor Day.

Christopher Horvers asked if quarter-to-date performance was positive and about the impact of a compressed holiday calendar. He also followed up on how the quarter's results might change the 2025 outlook, specifically the 11% operating margin floor.

Answer

CFO Paula Oyibo described the holiday season's start as 'solid' but did not confirm positive comps, reiterating the Q4 guidance for a low single-digit decline. Regarding 2025, she confirmed the directional guidance from Investor Day remains unchanged, with 2025 being a transitional year where the company will ensure the operating margin stays above 11%.

Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan Chase & Co. followed up on the Foot Locker deal, asking if it would remain accretive on an earnings basis even with a full share conversion. He also questioned the implied sharp deceleration in back-half comps, asking if it was primarily due to caution around the consumer and tariffs.

Answer

CFO Navdeep Gupta reiterated that the deal's accretion depends on multiple factors and that more analysis is needed post-close. President & CEO Lauren Hobart explained the back-half guidance balances strong business momentum with appropriate caution regarding the macro environment, and also noted that the company is lapping a very strong 6.4% comp from Q4 of the prior year.

Christopher Horvers followed up on tariffs, asking if impacted inventory has arrived yet, and questioned the rationale for the low $100 million divestiture threshold in the Foot Locker deal.

Answer

Executive VP & CFO Navdeep Gupta stated there was no tariff impact in Q1 and that any future impact is included in the full-year guidance. Executive Chairman Ed Stack explained the divestiture threshold is set to ensure the acquisition fulfills its core strategy of serving a new consumer segment, which would be undermined by significant store divestitures.

Christopher Horvers asked about the primary drivers of the average ticket increase and the potential multi-year gross margin contribution from emerging platforms like GameChanger and the DICK'S Media Network.

Answer

CFO Navdeep Gupta attributed the higher average ticket to a favorable mix of differentiated, innovative products rather than price inflation. CEO Lauren Hobart expressed significant optimism for GameChanger and the DICK'S Media Network as major long-term gross margin drivers, citing their unique data and synergistic potential, while stopping short of providing specific multi-year targets.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about Wayfair's market share gains relative to the broader market and whether recent strength was driven by consumer pull-forward from tariff concerns. He also inquired about the path to long-term double-digit EBITDA margins.

Answer

Co-Founder & CEO Niraj Shah stated the market is flat to down, with no signs of tariff-related pull-forward. He attributed Wayfair's strength to structural, company-specific drivers, including improvements in its core recipe (price, selection, speed) and renewed technology development. CFO Kate Gulliver reiterated the goal of over 10% adjusted EBITDA margins, emphasizing the optimization of contribution margin (gross margin less ad costs and customer service fees) to maximize long-term EBITDA dollars.

Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the impact of calendar shifts like Easter and the leap day on Q1 top-line results, the drivers behind the increase in Average Order Value (AOV), and whether there was evidence of pull-forward demand from consumers ahead of potential tariffs.

Answer

CEO Niraj Shah explained that timing mismatches from Way Day and Easter made quarter-to-date numbers difficult to interpret but noted that underlying demand remains strong. He clarified that AOV increases were not due to supplier price hikes, as suppliers are wary of raising prices in a competitive environment. CFO Kate Gulliver added that AOV trends were consistent sequentially and driven by mix, not price inflation. Niraj Shah concluded that the company has not seen significant pull-forward demand, except for a de minimis impact in the large appliances category.

Christopher Horvers questioned the Q4 revenue guidance, which implies a modest slowdown despite commentary about pre-election purchase deferrals. He also asked why the Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin guide is below the mid-single-digit goal, potentially undermining the achievement of that target.

Answer

CEO Niraj Shah explained the Q4 revenue forecast reflects a combination of uncertainties, including the election's timing and outcome, a shorter holiday calendar, and the challenging macro backdrop. CFO Kate Gulliver addressed the margin question, stating that the Q4 guide reflects a conscious decision to make incremental investments in high-ROI marketing opportunities that are expected to drive revenue and adjusted EBITDA dollars over the next few quarters.

Christopher Horvers asked about the increasingly promotional consumer environment, questioning how Wayfair will navigate the widening performance gap between promo and non-promo periods by balancing price investments with advertising pullbacks. He also questioned whether July's performance reflected promotional timing or a broader consumer slowdown.

Answer

CEO Niraj Shah explained that the current environment makes promotions a key tool for engagement, and the company is shifting ad spend to these periods for better ROI. He noted that July showed better momentum than June, with market share hitting all-time highs. CFO Kate Gulliver added that the Q3 guidance reflects normal seasonality from Q2.

Bharat Rao, on behalf of Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co., asked about the key drivers for the increase in average ticket, specifically the contribution from tariff-related pricing versus customer trade-ups. He also inquired about the pricing outlook for the rest of the year and whether the ticket comp could surpass guidance.

Answer

CEO Tom Taylor clarified that the Q2 average ticket growth was primarily driven by product mix, especially strong performance in the wood category, and a shift to 'better and best' products, with minimal impact from price increases. CFO Bryan Langley reiterated the full-year guidance for a low-to-mid single-digit ticket comp, noting Q4 will face pressure from lapping prior-year hurricane benefits. President Bradley Paulsen added that the company employs a surgical, data-driven pricing strategy based on elasticity tests rather than broad-based hikes.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the drivers of the Q2 sales acceleration, asking if it was due to weather abatement or a potential demand pull-forward ahead of tariffs. He also questioned whether the company's structural sourcing advantage could diminish as sourcing shifts more to the less-complex domestic market.

Answer

CEO Tom Taylor suggested that while there might have been a small initial pull-forward from tariff news, the sustained improvement is more likely due to better execution, new product rollouts like outdoor and kitchens, and improved in-stocks. On sourcing, Taylor and executive Ersan Sayman asserted their advantage remains strong, as there isn't enough domestic capacity to satisfy U.S. demand, and their global model across 26 countries provides critical flexibility that competitors lack.

Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the sales cadence for the upcoming year, specifically if the hurricane-related sales lift would be larger in Q1 than Q4 and how lapping a prior-year rebound in existing home sales might impact Q1 and Q2.

Answer

CFO Bryan Langley responded that the quarter-to-date hurricane benefit is consistent with Q4 and is offsetting other weather-related disruptions. He noted the hurricane sales impact typically dissipates after two to three quarters. While acknowledging tougher existing home sales comparisons in early 2025, he pointed out that the comparisons become much easier during the summer months.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if West Coast stores were comping positively given strong regional home sales data. He also inquired about potential comp drivers if existing home sales remain flat and sought to clarify how to model the sales lift from recent hurricanes compared to past events like Hurricane Harvey.

Answer

CFO Bryan Langley stated that West Coast stores are meaningfully outperforming the rest of the chain but have not yet inflected to positive comps. CEO Tom Taylor suggested that if home sales stay flat, falling interest rates could spur home improvement spending via cash-out refinancings. Regarding hurricanes, executives noted it's too early to quantify the benefit but expect it to be smaller than the impact from Hurricane Harvey due to the company's larger size today.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the expected top-line cadence for the Motion (Industrial) business and whether organic growth is assumed to accelerate. He also asked for clarification on the performance gap between company-owned and independent NAPA stores, probing for potential share shifts.

Answer

President & CEO William Stengel attributed improvements in the Motion business to sales effectiveness and digital initiatives, stating they are ready for growth when the market improves. CFO Bert Nappier added that growth is expected to accelerate in Q3 and Q4 against easier comparisons. Regarding NAPA stores, Stengel explained the performance difference relates to the slower pace at which independents adapt to uncertainty, but noted sequential improvement across both channels.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the expected top-line cadence for the Motion (Industrial) business and whether the guidance assumes tariff uncertainty will subside. He also asked if margin improvements are driving the optimistic outlook. He followed up on the performance gap between independent and company-owned NAPA stores and whether aggressive pricing was causing share loss.

Answer

President and CEO William Stengel credited the Motion business's resilience to self-help initiatives in sales effectiveness and digital investments, stating they are well-positioned for when the market recovers. EVP and CFO Bert Napier added that while there is more clarity on tariffs, uncertainty remains. The moderated growth outlook for Motion still anticipates acceleration in Q3 and Q4 against easier comps. Regarding NAPA stores, Stengel explained the performance difference is due to the time it takes to align with independent owners, but sequential improvement is occurring. He affirmed confidence in their pricing strategy and market position.

Christopher Horvers questioned the top-line cadence for the Motion (Industrial) business, asking if organic growth would accelerate as tariff uncertainty fades. He also explored whether gross margin expansion in the U.S. NAPA business was causing a share shift, given the performance gap between independent and company-owned stores.

Answer

President and CEO William Stengel confirmed that the Motion business is seeing real improvements from sales and digital initiatives and is poised for growth when the market recovers. EVP and CFO Bert Napier added that Motion's growth is expected to accelerate in Q3 and Q4 against easier prior-year comparisons. Regarding NAPA, Stengel stated the company is well-positioned on price and the performance gap reflects the time needed to align with independent owners in an uncertain environment, noting that sequential improvement is underway.

Christopher Horvers asked about the expected top-line cadence for the Motion (Industrial) business and whether margin improvements were fueling the growth outlook. He also questioned the performance disparity between company-owned and independent NAPA stores, probing if aggressive pricing was a factor.

Answer

President and CEO William Stengel highlighted internal sales effectiveness and digital initiatives that are building momentum in the Motion business. EVP and CFO Bert Napier added that while the outlook was moderated, they expect growth to accelerate in H2 against easier comps. Regarding NAPA stores, Stengel attributed the performance difference to the time it takes to align with independent owners on market changes, but noted that their performance is sequentially improving.

Christopher Horvers asked for guidance on the expected progression of comparable sales throughout the year for both the Motion and U.S. NAPA businesses. He also inquired why the U.S. auto business saw no benefit from favorable winter weather in December and asked about the potential impact of tariffs on the industrial recovery.

Answer

EVP and CFO Herbert Nappier projected a weaker first half of 2025 with sequential improvement through the year, noting that positive winter weather was offset by hurricane disruptions earlier in the quarter, making it a net 'push'. President and CEO William Stengel added that while the tariff situation is fluid, the company is prepared with a diversified supply chain and has a clear view of its exposure.

Christopher Horvers sought clarification on whether investments were stepped up beyond the original plan and asked about the implied Q4 same-store sales. He also questioned if the U.S. election would be a 'clearing event' for the industrial business.

Answer

EVP and CFO Herbert Nappier confirmed that the CapEx plan remains unchanged at approximately 2% of revenue for 2024 and stated the pace of store acquisitions will slow. President and CEO William Stengel suggested the election could be a clearing event, but with a lag into 2025 rather than an immediate Q4 impact. Nappier declined to give specific Q4 guidance but indicated the quarter's performance would be thematically similar to Q3.

Christopher Horvers asked about the level of same-SKU inflation in Q1, whether it included tariff-related pricing, and how it's expected to accelerate. He also questioned how LIFO accounting might create benefits during an inflationary period and influence the gross margin.

Answer

EVP and CFO Ryan Grimsland reported that the inflation impact in Q1 was immaterial and that full-year guidance contemplates mid-single-digit inflation under various tariff scenarios. He noted a minor LIFO favorability of about $4 million in Q1. Grimsland explained that the company is managing inventory and purchase orders to work through existing supply and minimize LIFO impacts, aided by a strategic forward-buy ahead of tariffs. CEO Shane O'Kelly added that the timing of tariff implementation also contributed to the minimal Q1 impact.

Christopher Horvers asked for clarification on the distinction between costs that are adjusted out as non-GAAP versus those labeled 'transitory', and inquired about the expected cadence of comparable sales throughout 2025.

Answer

CFO Ryan Grimsland clarified that non-GAAP adjustments are directly tied to large-scale strategic initiatives, while 'atypical' items are other quarterly events not expected to recur. He projected sequential improvement in comparable sales each quarter in 2025, driven by strategic initiatives taking hold and an expected improvement in the macro environment in the second half of the year.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the implied negative operating margin for Q4, asking about potential one-time costs. He also sought clarification on 125 basis points of atypical items in Q3 and how much of the 2025 margin expansion is from lapping these non-recurring issues.

Answer

An executive, likely CFO Ryan Grimsland, confirmed the Q4 margin pressure, attributing it to typical seasonal weakness in gross profit, cycling prior-year items, and potential disruption from the turnaround. He clarified the 125 basis points were from atypical events like hurricanes and the CrowdStrike outage, and stated the 2025 margin improvement is driven by proactive initiatives like store closures and vendor negotiations, not just the absence of prior-year disruptions.

Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the various factors influencing the quarter's strong comp, such as a late spring and potential tariff-related pull-forward, and questioned what specifically drove the positive turn in the furniture category.

Answer

Executive Jeff Howie attributed the strong performance to the consumer's positive response to the company's core strategies, products, and marketing, rather than external factors like pull-forward. In a follow-up, he confirmed that the year-over-year headwind from lapping low ocean freight costs in the prior year will diminish as the year progresses, which is factored into the company's reiterated full-year guidance.

Christopher Horvers asked about the various factors contributing to the strong Q1 comp, what drove the positive turn in the furniture category, and followed up on the cadence of input cost comparisons.

Answer

EVP and CFO Jeff Howie attributed the strong performance to the successful execution of internal strategies and consumer response to their products, rather than external factors like demand pull-forward. In response to the follow-up, he confirmed that the difficult year-over-year input cost comparison from Q1 gets easier as the year progresses, a factor embedded in their reiterated guidance.

Christopher Horvers asked about the various factors contributing to the strong Q1 comp, including a potential pull-forward from tariff concerns, and what specifically drove the positive turn in furniture sales.

Answer

CFO Jeff Howie attributed the strong performance to the successful execution of their core strategies and consumer response to their products, rather than a quantifiable pull-forward effect. He noted that newness, innovation, double-digit growth in emerging brands, and a strong B2B quarter all contributed to the positive results and the inflection in the furniture category.

Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for an analysis of the quarter's various factors, such as a later spring and consumer sentiment, and questioned what specifically drove the positive turn in the furniture category.

Answer

CFO Jeff Howie attributed the strong results to the successful execution of their strategies and the consumer's response to product newness and innovation, rather than external factors or pull-forwards. In a follow-up, he confirmed that the headwind from lapping last year's low ocean freight costs is expected to diminish as the year progresses, which is factored into the annual guidance.

Christopher Horvers asked for context on the quarter's performance given various puts and takes like a late spring and consumer tariff concerns, and specifically what drove the positive turn in the furniture category.

Answer

EVP and CFO Jeff Howie attributed the strong quarter and market share gains to the consumer responding positively to the company's strategies, product assortments, and marketing, rather than a pull-forward effect from tariff concerns. In a follow-up, he confirmed that the headwind from lapping last year's lower freight costs will ease as the year progresses and that this dynamic is already factored into the reiterated full-year guidance.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the various factors influencing the quarter's strong comp, such as a late spring or consumer tariff concerns, and what specifically drove the positive turn in furniture sales.

Answer

EVP and CFO Jeff Howie attributed the strong performance to the consumer's positive response to their internal strategies, product assortments, and marketing, rather than external factors or pull-forward. He confirmed that the difficult lap on input costs from last year gets easier going forward, which is factored into the reiterated guidance.

Christopher Horvers inquired about Target's back-half guidance, asking if comparable sales would turn positive and if gross margin would expand, and sought clarity on whether the Q1 shrink improvement was a one-time event.

Answer

CFO Jim Lee clarified that the company expects low single-digit comparable sales declines to continue for the rest of the year, including Q4. He noted inventory adjustment costs would primarily impact the first half. Regarding shrink, Lee confirmed a 'catch-up' element in Q1's 120 basis point improvement but stated the company expects to recover the 'vast majority' of recent shrink headwinds over the full year.

Christopher Horvers asked for clarification on the full-year guidance, questioning if comparable sales would turn positive in the second half and if gross margin would improve once inventory costs subside. He also inquired about the sustainability of the Q1 inventory shrink benefit.

Answer

CFO Jim Lee clarified that the company expects low single-digit comparable sales declines to continue for the remainder of the year, including Q4. He confirmed inventory adjustment costs are primarily a first-half issue. Regarding shrink, Lee noted the 120 basis point Q1 benefit included a 'catch-up' element but stated the company expects to recover the 'vast majority' of the remaining historical shrink headwind this year.

Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the drivers for the Target Plus growth goal of $1 billion to $5 billion and asked about potential excess clearance pressure in Q1 given the 7% inventory increase.

Answer

EVP Cara Sylvester detailed that Target Plus growth is driven by complementing the core assortment with key national brands and adding breadth in style-driven categories like Home, noting the $5 billion goal is a milestone, not an endgame. EVP Richard Gomez addressed the near-term outlook, stating that while February was volatile, strong performance on Valentine's Day and positive apparel trends in warmer markets provide confidence for spring. CFO James Lee added that the wide annual guidance range accounts for such uncertainties.

Christopher Horvers questioned why Q4 demand growth guidance is below the strong quarter-to-date trends and asked about the potential to recover clearance-related margin pressure over time.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Gary Friedman clarified that while the core RH brand is accelerating significantly (up 30% month-to-date), other businesses like contract and outlet are not yet seeing that lift, impacting the total guidance. He stated that while clearance is a factor, the company is strategically using disruptive pricing to gain significant market share, which he believes is a better long-term strategy than harvesting margins on lower sales. He noted about 80% of the business was at full price in Q3.

Inquired about the current state of the consumer, whether competitive pricing has become more aggressive, and if the company anticipates needing to increase its own promotional activity to remain competitive, particularly for the back-to-school season.

Answer

The executive acknowledged that consumers face macroeconomic pressures affecting general merchandise purchases but noted the brand remains strong due to the persistent need for organization. The company has found that creating urgency with time-limited promotional events is more effective and profitable than running extended promotions, suggesting a strategic approach to driving sales.

Asked about the extent of demand pull-forward from the Elfa anniversary sale, the promotional plan for Elfa in Q4 and beyond, and the outlook for freight costs given the current global shipping environment.

Answer

The company did not quantify the demand pull-forward from the Q3 Elfa anniversary sale but noted it was an additional event and that a standard Elfa promotion is running in Q4. They plan to continue with four Elfa events in fiscal 2024. Regarding freight, they expect tailwinds to continue into the first half of fiscal 2024, though to a lesser degree, and see minimal current impact from the Red Sea disruptions as most shipments are contracted and routed differently.