Frank Mitsch

Frank Mitsch questioned the timing of initiating a strategic review for a company sale, assuming 2026 is the bottom of the cycle, and asked why not wait until restructuring yields tangible results to potentially achieve better shareholder value.

Answer

Pierre Brondeau, Chairman, CEO and President, confirmed that 2026 is expected to be the bottom, with growth returning in 2027-2028 under the base plan. He explained that the strategic review is a board decision to explore a parallel path for maximizing shareholder value. He noted that a different ownership might offer more financial flexibility to accelerate growth, especially for new active ingredients, compared to the current need to fund restructuring. He stressed that while the 2026 plan is robust, the alternative could be highly beneficial.

Frank Mitsch questioned the timing of initiating a strategic review for a full company sale, suggesting it might not yield the best shareholder value at what is expected to be the bottom of the cycle in 2026.

Answer

Pierre Brondeau, Chairman, CEO and President, agreed that 2026 is expected to be the bottom of the cycle, with growth projected for 2027-2028 under the base plan. However, he explained that the board is exploring a parallel path for a full sale to potentially offer greater benefits to shareholders and allow the company to operate faster and with more financial flexibility than it could alone, despite the robustness of the current plan.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research requested financial details for the India business to reconcile guidance changes and asked about the marketing process and potential buyer interest for the divestiture.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Pierre Brondeau stated that while the official marketing process has not begun, preliminary interest is being shown. He clarified that India's results are not material enough for a full historical recast but provided key figures: H2 2024 India sales were $140 million, with an H2 2025 forecast of $70 million. He noted the rest of the business needs to grow by about 9% to meet the ex-India guidance, driven by over $200 million in growth from the new product portfolio.

Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research asked for more details on the new route-to-market in Brazil, including its negative impact in Q1 and the expected timing for it to become a positive contributor.

Answer

CEO Pierre Brondeau noted the Q1 impact was limited to SG&A costs for hiring the new sales team. President Ronaldo Pereira expressed high confidence, stating the initiative will turn positive when invoicing for the main crop season begins late in Q2 and ramps up in Q3. He stated he has 'no doubt' it will be a positive contributor for the full year 2025.

Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research asked for details on the portion of the 2025 price decline not related to partner contracts and questioned the logic of passing on manufacturing cost savings, derived from FMC's own investments, to its diamide partners.

Answer

CEO Pierre Brondeau explained that the cost-plus pricing structure with key diamide partners was a strategic commercial decision to secure long-term contracts and ensure partners remained competitive. He attributed the remaining one-third of the price decline to ongoing market competitiveness, particularly in Asia and specifically India, where channel inventories remain high.

Frank Mitsch asked about the Houston refinery, which was shut down a year ago, and whether LyondellBasell would consider monetizing the asset given recent changes in the outlook for Venezuelan crude, for which the refinery was well-suited.

Answer

CEO Peter Vanacker stated that the plan for the refinery remains its transformation, as previously explained, in the context of the cash improvement plan, which includes delaying the MoReTec-2 investment. He noted that the decision to shut down avoided approximately $1.5 billion in CapEx for a necessary turnaround. Vanacker also mentioned that other U.S. refineries can process Venezuelan crude and that LyondellBasell remains open to options for the existing assets at the site.

Frank Mitsch asked about the Houston refinery, specifically if the changed outlook due to events in Venezuela might lead LyondellBasell to monetize the asset, given its suitability for Venezuelan crude.

Answer

CEO Peter Vanacker stated that the plan for the refinery remains consistent with prior explanations, including delaying the MoReTec-2 investment. He noted that shutting down the refinery avoided approximately $1.5 billion in CapEx for necessary turnarounds. Vanacker also mentioned that other US refineries can process Venezuelan crude and reiterated the company's openness to options for the existing assets at the site.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research questioned the sustainability of LyondellBasell's dividend, noting that recent operating cash flow has not covered shareholder returns and that other chemical companies are cutting their dividends.

Answer

CEO Peter Vanacker affirmed the company's commitment to the dividend, highlighting a strong starting cash position, robust liquidity, and a foundational commitment to its investment-grade credit rating. He stated that no further share buybacks are planned for 2025-2026 and that the company's cash improvement plan is on track to secure the dividend.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research asked about the company's capital return strategy, specifically its approach to share buybacks at current stock prices and the likelihood of a dividend increase.

Answer

CEO Peter Vanacker confirmed that share repurchases are a core part of capital distribution and highlighted the company's 14-year track record of increasing dividends, stating LYB is well-positioned to continue this trend. CFO Agustin Izquierdo added that the company will continue to be opportunistic with buybacks. Peter Vanacker hinted that buybacks likely continued past the end of Q1 given the low share price.

Frank Mitsch asked for the outlook on the polyethylene margin profile for the first quarter, weighing the announced price increases against contract resets and higher feedstock costs.

Answer

EVP Kimberly Foley explained that rising feedstock costs have increased ethylene production costs by $0.05-$0.06 per pound. She expressed confidence in achieving price improvement, arguing that with 5% of industry cracker capacity offline for maintenance, integrated producers will be unwilling to buy expensive ethylene to make low-margin polyethylene. CEO Peter Vanacker added that the market was surprisingly balanced in Q4 despite price decreases.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research requested an update on the timeline for the European restructuring and sought clarification on a comment about a potential 10% increase in European operating rates.

Answer

CEO Peter Vanacker stated that clarity on the European asset review is expected in 2025. He clarified his earlier comment was not about operating rates; rather, after the European restructuring and refining exit, the proportion of LyondellBasell's entire global portfolio considered 'cost-advantaged' would increase from 60% to 70%. CFO Michael McMurray added that more details would be shared in the new year.

Frank Mitsch sought an explanation for the $70 million in stranded costs related to Dow's propylene oxide plant closure, given that the announcement was made in May 2023, implying Olin had time to plan.

Answer

Ken Lane, Olin's President and CEO, confirmed that Olin was aware of the closure and had been planning for it. He explained that while the associated asset didn't generate margin, the costs are only removed as assets are physically shut down and wound down, which is ongoing. Lane stated that these stranded costs are the basis for the Beyond250 program, aiming to offset them through structural cost reductions.

Frank Mitsch asked for an explanation of the $70 million stranded costs related to Dow's propylene oxide plant closure, given Olin's long-term awareness and planning for this event.

Answer

Ken Lane, Olin's President and CEO, confirmed that Olin had long known about and planned for the closure. He explained that the costs are realized as the assets are shut down, and the Beyond250 program was created to offset these. While the PO asset itself didn't generate margin, stranded costs are a reality. Approximately $20 million of these costs have already been offset by optimizing power supply.

Frank Mitsch sought clarification on the $40 million negative impact from inventories in Q4, questioning if it's an Olin-specific issue or indicative of broader industry inventory levels, and Olin's confidence in returning to normal operations in Q1 2026.

Answer

President and CEO Ken Lane distinguished between Winchester's unique situation of high retail inventories and imports, and the chemical value chains where he is not currently concerned about industry-wide over-inventory. He emphasized Olin's proactive measures to reduce inventory to minimum levels and adjust operating rates in Q4 to maintain its value-first commercial strategy.

Frank Mitsch sought more details on the $40 million negative impact from inventories in Q4, asking if it was an Olin-specific issue or indicative of broader industry inventory levels, and the confidence in returning to normal operations in Q1 2026.

Answer

Ken Lane, President and CEO, clarified that the Winchester inventory issue was unique, driven by high retail inventories and a wave of imports. For chemicals, he expressed no concern about industry-wide excess inventory but noted Olin's disciplined approach to reduce operating rates and inventory in response to seasonal Q4 weakness.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research inquired about the importance of Brazil as a caustic soda export market and the potential timeline for trade flows to normalize if significant retaliatory tariffs were imposed.

Answer

President and CEO Ken Lane acknowledged that South America is a key export destination and that tariff uncertainty is causing short-term market disruption. He estimated that if major retaliatory tariffs were enacted, it would take approximately one to two months for global trade flows to 'rewire,' with North American product shifting to other regions. He added that he was encouraged by the recent lack of new tariff rhetoric from Brazil.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research, LLC asked about the Epoxy segment's outlook, noting the lack of benefit from South Korean anti-dumping duties and questioning what is needed to return the business to profitability in 2025.

Answer

President and CEO Kenneth Lane acknowledged that 2025 will continue to be a struggle for Epoxy, though not a 'lost year.' He pointed to some positive impacts from anti-dumping duties on other countries and growth in higher-value formulated solutions. He expects to see positive results by late 2025 or early 2026, aided by new European cost agreements, and reminded that the business still provides mid-to-high double-digit million-dollar integration value.

Frank Mitsch asked about Olin's plans for upcoming debt and tax payments and sought clarification on whether flat ECU values implied a flat PCI index for Q1.

Answer

CFO Todd Slater confirmed the $80 million tax payment will occur in H1 2025 and the ~$100 million debt maturity will be paid with the revolver. CEO Kenneth Lane clarified that the PCI index would not be flat, as it includes derivatives like EDC, which Slater noted is facing pricing headwinds.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research asked for more detail on the Q3 decline in the PCI index and the expectation for Q4. He also inquired about the anticipated pace of share buybacks in the fourth quarter.

Answer

President and CEO Kenneth Lane reiterated that the PCI decline was driven by mix changes from the Hurricane Beryl downtime and that, excluding this impact, the index would have been relatively flat sequentially. He expects a similar flat trend in Q4. For share repurchases, Lane anticipates a pace in Q4 similar to Q3, reflecting an adjustment made midyear to a lower earnings outlook.

Frank Mitsch asked about current customer inventory levels, comparing them to past destocking periods, and sought clarification on the comparability of asset utilization headwinds/benefits between 2025 and 2026.

Answer

Mark Costa (Board Chair and CEO, Eastman Chemical Company) stated that customers learned from 2021-2022 overbuilding and were disciplined in 2025, though tariff-driven pre-buying and subsequent demand slowdown led to some excess inventory. He noted current orders picking up, indicating managed inventory. Willie McLain (EVP and CFO, Eastman Chemical Company) clarified that the $100M utilization headwind in 2025 was due to internal destocking in the second half. The more modest $25M-$50M tailwind for 2026 reflects lower planned turnarounds and stable inventory assumptions, with a large portion benefiting Advanced Materials. Mark Costa added that if demand is stable, the utilization benefit could exceed the forecast.

Frank Mitsch inquired about current customer inventory levels, asking if they are 'bone dry,' and sought reconciliation for the asset utilization headwind in 2025 versus the projected benefit in 2026.

Answer

Mark Costa (Board Chair and CEO) stated that customers learned from past overbuilding, were disciplined in 2025, and that tariff-driven pre-buying led to some excess inventory, but levels were much lower than in 2023. He noted Q1 orders picking up, indicating managed inventories. Willie McLain (EVP and CFO) clarified that the $100M headwind in 2025 was due to destocking and plant turn-downs. The $25M-$50M utilization tailwind for 2026 reflects lower planned turnarounds and stable inventory assumptions, with potential for higher benefits if demand strengthens.

Frank Mitsch inquired about the pace of activity in the past couple of months, what order books suggest for November, and the confidence level that the market has bottomed out, given the weaker Q4 outlook.

Answer

Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO, acknowledged the chaotic market and difficulty in obtaining high-quality data. He noted that demand changes, not cost plans or spreads, have driven the weaker outlook. He expressed comfort that inventory levels are not excessively high, suggesting a limit to further depletion. He mentioned encouraging signs from specialty plastics customers planning higher Q1 orders but cautioned that it's too early to call the precise timing of a bottom.

Frank Mitsch asked for more granular detail on the Q4 2025 outlook, specifically the pace of activity in recent months, current order books for November, and confidence in reaching a market bottom. He also inquired about the locations and impact of the 7% headcount reduction and its contribution to the $175 million cost cut target for 2025-2026.

Answer

Board Chair and CEO Mark Costa described the market as chaotic, with demand changes driving the weaker Q4 outlook. He noted that while order patterns have dragged out, inventory levels are not excessively high, suggesting a limit to destocking. October revenues met expectations, and specialty plastics customers are planning higher Q1 orders, providing encouragement, though precise timing of a bottom is uncertain. EVP and CFO William Thomas McLain stated that net savings will exceed the $75 million 2025 target, with a raised 2026 target of $100 million, totaling over $300 million in gross cost reductions. The 7% headcount reduction is an enterprise-wide effort, part of broader productivity, competitive manufacturing, and functional cost-cutting initiatives, including footprint optimization (e.g., films business restructuring) and AI integration.

Frank Mitsch asked for a quantification of the Q2 pre-buy benefit and whether the Q3 EPS guidance of around $1.25 represents a midpoint with a particularly wide range of potential outcomes.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mark Costa confirmed that a pre-buy benefit of around $20 million in Q2 was 'directionally correct.' Regarding the Q3 guidance, he described the '$1.25' figure as a best estimate that carries both upside and downside risk due to the extreme uncertainty in customer and consumer behavior amid the ongoing trade situation. While factors like cost actions are controllable, the demand environment is not, leading to a wide range of possibilities.

Frank Mitsch asked for the key variables driving the high and low ends of the wide Q2 EPS guidance range. He also questioned the trend in April orders and sought details on the tariff mechanics for tow sales to the Chinese National Tobacco Company (CNTC).

Answer

Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO, stated that the wide Q2 guidance range is almost entirely due to demand uncertainty in May and June, driven by trade tensions. He explained that for tow sales, the joint venture with CNTC can opt to reduce production if the flake imported from Eastman becomes uneconomic due to high tariffs, creating volume risk for Eastman rather than a simple price pass-through.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research requested more information on the new 'Aventa' food packaging application mentioned for the cellulose platform. He also asked for a breakdown of the drivers behind the 4% sequential volume/mix growth in Q3 by end market and geography.

Answer

CEO Mark Costa elaborated on Aventa, a biodegradable cellulosic acetate product creating compostable straws and a drop-in replacement for polystyrene foam trays, calling it a large, high-margin opportunity. Regarding Q3 volume growth, Costa attributed the strength in the AFP segment to heat transfer fluids for global LNG projects and coatings additives. The CI segment saw higher volume in North America due to increased availability post-shutdowns, while the AM segment was roughly flat.

Frank Mitsch questioned the role of AI in Dow's Transform to Outperform program, asking about confidence in AI's ability to achieve productivity savings, current spending on AI, and its return on investment. He also inquired how AI is being integrated and if all savings are expected to drop to the bottom line.

Answer

Jim Fitterling, Chair and Chief Executive Officer, clarified that Transform to Outperform is not solely AI-driven but involves fundamental changes to integrated work processes. He noted that previous investments in digital capabilities and an intelligent data hub position Dow to leverage AI for streamlining operations, reducing manual tasks, and automating handoffs. He cited examples in legal and maintenance (drones/crawlers) and expressed confidence that savings will reach the bottom line, alongside a focus on growth-oriented roles.

Frank Mitsch followed up on the Transform to Outperform program, specifically asking about Dow's confidence in AI's role in achieving productivity savings and its integration into the initiative. He inquired about the spending on AI, any returns seen to date, and whether all savings are expected to drop to the bottom line when demand recovers.

Answer

Jim Fitterling, Chair and Chief Executive Officer, clarified that Transform to Outperform involves fundamental changes beyond just AI, focusing on simplifying end-to-end work processes, automating manual tasks, and leveraging an intelligent data hub. He expressed confidence in AI's ability to streamline operations and reduce costs across various functions, citing examples in legal patent research and turnaround cost reductions through drones. Fitterling affirmed that all savings are expected to drop to the bottom line and highlighted a continued focus on sales, tech service, and application development, strategically deploying personnel in growing geographies while automating back-end support.

Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research requested a breakdown of the significant Q2 sequential EBITDA decline in the Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment, which fell $270 million despite guidance suggesting a much smaller drop. He asked for the split between the April price decline and lower operating rates.

Answer

COO Karen Carter attributed the large decline to two factors not anticipated in the prior guidance: the unexpected $0.03/lb polyethylene price drop in April and the subsequent fall in operating rates as exports halted. She estimated the negative impact was split roughly 50/50 between these two items.

Frank Mitsch asked for the Q2 free cash flow expectation, given the flat EBITDA guidance, and for more insight into the profitability trends of the growing downstream siloxanes business.

Answer

CFO Jeff Tate stated that while Q2 operating cash flow will be impacted by turnarounds similar to Q1, the company expects to receive approximately $2.4 billion in cash from its infrastructure asset sale. COO Karen S. Carter and CEO James Fitterling both highlighted positive trends in siloxanes, noting continued downstream growth, a better supply/demand balance from an upstream shutdown, and positive pricing moves from Q1 into Q2.

Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research asked about the underlying business pace in the Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment for Q1, seeking to understand the demand trends in polyurethanes and industrial solutions, excluding one-off items.

Answer

COO Karen S. Carter reported no signs of demand recovery in polyurethanes and construction chemicals due to interest rate sensitivity and slowing automotive markets. Conversely, she described demand in Industrial Solutions as stable, with positive signs in energy and pharma. However, she noted that a significant turnaround in the quarter would be a headwind for the business.

Frank Mitsch inquired about the impact of Brazil's recent tariff increase on polyethylene imports and asked for an early outlook on the supply-demand balance for siloxanes in 2025.

Answer

James Fitterling, Chair and CEO, characterized Brazil's tariff as a move to protect its domestic manufacturing base. On siloxanes, he noted some market tightening but believes there is still room for rationalization, with some Chinese capacity at negative cash margins. He highlighted strong downstream demand growth (up 6% YoY), particularly from electric vehicles, and noted that a construction recovery would provide a significant boost.

Frank Mitsch sought clarification on PPG's H1 2026 EPS growth guidance, noting a slight discrepancy between the script (low single digit) and recent comments (flat to low single digits), and asked for expectations regarding Q1 2026 EPS.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Tim Knavish clarified that EPS growth is expected to ramp up throughout the year. He advised interpreting the first-half guidance as 'flat-ish' for Q1 2026, 'low single digits-ish' for Q2 2026, followed by stronger growth in the second half of the year.

Frank Mitsch sought clarification on PPG's Q1 2026 EPS expectations, given the script's mention of low single-digit EPS growth for the first half and the morning's comments of flat to low single digits.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Tim Knavish clarified the EPS growth trajectory, stating that the company expects to 'ramp up.' He interpreted the flat to low single-digit guidance for the first half as 'flat-ish for Q1, low single digits-ish for Q2, and then stronger in the second half of the year.'

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research asked about customer order patterns during Q2 and into Q3, particularly regarding any signs of pre-buying ahead of tariffs, and also requested the Q2 FX impact and the full-year outlook.

Answer

CFO Vince Morales reported that after some initial tariff concerns in April, customer order patterns normalized and there was no significant pull-forward of demand into Q2. On currency, he stated the negative Q1 translation impact lessened in Q2, and he expects the second half to offset the first, bringing the full-year impact near zero.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research asked about customer order patterns during Q2 and into Q3, potential pre-buying ahead of tariffs, and the foreign exchange impact for the quarter and full year.

Answer

CFO Vince Morales reported that after some initial customer concern around tariffs in April, order patterns returned to normal for the remainder of the quarter with no evidence of pre-buying or pull-forward into Q2. On currency, he stated the impact was negative in Q1, less negative in Q2, and is expected to reverse in the second half, resulting in a near-zero impact for the full year.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research, LLC asked for an update on the full-year organic growth expectations for each segment, suggesting the Performance Coatings outlook might be raised while questioning if the guides for Architectural and Industrial still hold.

Answer

CEO Timothy Knavish stated that total company organic growth is expected to be in the low single digits for the year. He specified that Performance Coatings should be in the mid-single digits. CFO Vince Morales added context, noting that comps get harder for Performance Coatings but easier for Industrial Coatings in the second half, while also referencing the known challenges in the architectural business in Mexico.

Frank Mitsch asked if the divestiture of the North American architectural business is still accretive and if the Q1 $400 million buyback signals a pause in M&A activity.

Answer

CEO Tim Knavish confirmed the divestiture is 'absolutely' accretive to EPS. Regarding capital allocation, he clarified that the M&A strategy is unchanged, focusing on organic growth while remaining open to value-accretive acquisitions. He noted that while a Brazilian asset is attractive, the company must consider price and timing, and currently sees its own stock as undervalued, making buybacks a compelling use of cash.

Speaking for Frank Mitsch, Davante Adams asked about the future level of corporate costs after the divestiture and questioned why Q4 guidance for the Refinish business is flat despite strong momentum.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Timothy Knavish explained the flat Q4 Refinish outlook is due to channel inventory management and a difficult comparison against a significant customer pre-buy in Q4 of last year. SVP and CFO Vince Morales noted that while the 2025 plan isn't final, structural corporate costs are expected to be lower as a result of the new cost program.

Frank Mitsch questioned Celanese's comfort level with paying down $3B+ debt due 2026/2027 without tapping a revolver, and sought an explanation for the sizable write-down tied to Zytel and nylon, and its relation to the stock price.

Answer

CFO Chuck Kyrish expressed confidence in covering 2026 maturities with Micromax proceeds, cash on hand, and Q4 generation, and in generating cash for 2027s, while being opportunistic in debt markets to bridge timing. He explained the write-down was an annual goodwill/intangibles test, driven by a reduction in market cap (stock price) rather than a decline in projected EM cash flows.

Frank Mitsch questioned Celanese's comfort level in addressing the $3 billion-plus debt due in 2026/2027 using free cash flow and divestitures without tapping a revolver or issuing more debt. He also sought an explanation for the sizable write-down related to Zytel and nylon, and its connection to the stock price.

Answer

Chuck Kyrish, CFO, expressed confidence in covering the $900 million due in 2026 with Micromax proceeds, existing cash, and Q4 cash generation. He stated that Celanese is confident in its cash generation ability to pay off 2027 maturities and will be prudent in debt markets to bridge timing. Regarding the write-down, Mr. Kyrish clarified that it was an annual goodwill and intangibles test, not due to a reduction in projected cash flows for Engineered Materials, but rather driven by a reduction in Celanese's market capitalization (stock price) as part of a market-to-book analysis.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research asked for context on current volume levels relative to historical norms for both the Acetyls and Engineered Materials segments and inquired about the assumptions underpinning the high and low ends of the Q3 earnings guidance given low visibility.

Answer

CEO & President Scott A. Richardson stated that volumes are significantly lower than historical norms, with Western Hemisphere acetyl demand likely at a 20-year low. Regarding guidance, he expressed confidence based on controllable actions already in motion and noted that operational improvements enhance flexibility and cost-to-serve, providing confidence in hitting cash flow targets.

Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research asked for context on current business volumes relative to historical norms and questioned what expectations are embedded in the high and low ends of the Q3 earnings guidance, given the low visibility.

Answer

CEO & President Scott A. Richardson stated that volumes are significantly lower, with Western Hemisphere acetyl demand likely at a 20-year low. Despite low visibility, he expressed confidence in the Q3 guidance range due to the execution of controllable cost actions. He added that operational improvements, such as integrating legacy assets, enhance cost-to-serve and allow for a more responsive, make-to-order model, which supports performance even in a low-demand environment.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research asked for context on current volume levels relative to historical norms and inquired about the expectations embedded in the high and low ends of the Q3 guidance range, given the stated low visibility.

Answer

CEO Scott A. Richardson stated that volumes are significantly lower than historical norms, with Western Hemisphere acetyl demand potentially at a 20-year low and H1 EM volumes down 5-6% year-over-year. Regarding the Q3 guidance, he expressed confidence based on controllable cost actions and increased operational flexibility from the M&M integration, which allows the company to respond more efficiently to demand changes.

Frank Mitsch inquired about the outlook for the challenged nylon 66 business, asking about potential industry capacity rationalization and the key drivers for fundamental improvement.

Answer

CEO Scott Richardson acknowledged that nylon is the most challenged area within their leading engineered materials franchise and has been the biggest driver of recent earnings decline. He stated that while Celanese has taken decisive actions on capacity and costs, the industry margin level is unsustainable. Richardson emphasized that Celanese can only control its own actions and will continue to partner with customers and drive down costs.

Frank Mitsch questioned the modest implied Q2 earnings improvement after accounting for non-repeating Q1 items and asked for the key drivers of the expected increase in 2025 free cash flow compared to 2024.

Answer

CEO Scott Richardson explained that some improvement is already factored into late Q1, and the company is aggressively working on actions to increase the Q2 number beyond the initial outlook. CFO Chuck Kyrish detailed the drivers for higher 2025 free cash flow, noting that while an earnings guide hasn't been given, significant improvements will come from working capital being a source of cash (vs. a use in 2024), lower cash taxes, and a roughly $100 million reduction in CapEx.

Frank Mitsch inquired about Westlake's near and midterm outlook for the PVC market and the strategies required to restore its profitability.

Answer

Jean-Marc Gilson (President and CEO) and Steve Bender (EVP and CFO) outlined efforts to reduce costs and improve plant reliability to enhance competitiveness at lower prices, aiming for acceptable financial returns in the chlorovinyls segment. Steve Bender added that these actions are already yielding results, and further supply reductions in the European market are anticipated to help address oversupply.

Frank Mitsch asked for Westlake's near and midterm outlook on the PVC market and what actions are needed to get it back on track. He also followed up on the ACI acquisition, seeking details on its 2025 sales, whether it aligns with HIP segment margins, and its impact on the 2026 financial model.

Answer

Jean-Marc Gilson, President and CEO, stated that the chlorovinyl chain is challenged, but Westlake is implementing cost-saving efforts to compete and expects acceptable financial returns in the near future. Steven Bender, EVP and CFO, added that cost reductions and improved reliability are showing results, with further supply reductions in the European market. Regarding ACI, Mr. Bender confirmed it's a strong global compounding business with good margins, expected to reflect HIP segment margins once synergies are achieved.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research sought an explanation of the duty drawback mechanism for Westlake's caustic soda exports to Brazil and how much of their volume is affected. He also asked for specific examples of the plant reliability improvements the company is already seeing in the third quarter.

Answer

EVP & CFO Steven Bender explained that customers in Brazil who use Westlake's caustic soda to produce goods for re-export can get the import tariff refunded. President & CEO Jean-Marc Gilson added that reliability improvements began around late April/early May after significant outages and are expected to continue as plants ramp up through Q3.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research LLC sought clarification on the HIP segment's margin outlook, questioning if the full-year guidance was overly conservative given the negative mix impact in Q1. He also asked about the company's plans for share repurchases in the near future.

Answer

M. Bender, EVP and CFO, confirmed there is a degree of conservatism in the margin guidance due to uncertainty around interest rates. Regarding buybacks, he acknowledged the board's authorization and the company's liquidity but stated that capital deployment is assessed against all opportunities, including organic growth projects and potential acquisitions, without providing specific quarterly guidance.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research sought confirmation that the two impacted PEM units were fully operational for a 'clean' Q4 and asked about the outlook for free cash flow, specifically regarding working capital in the fourth quarter.

Answer

EVP and CFO Steve Bender confirmed the plants were up and running with no expected impact in Q4. He also noted that, consistent with historical trends, working capital is typically a source of cash during the fourth quarter due to seasonality.

Fran Mitsch inquired about potential antitrust issues for the Micromax deal, given the quick expected closing time in Q1 2026. She also asked about the most positive surprises relative to guidance in the third quarter and how those trends are continuing into the fourth quarter.

Answer

President and CEO Benjamin Gliklich stated that Micromax is a complementary capability with no substantial technology or market share overlap, thus not anticipating significant regulatory hurdles. Regarding Q3, Mr. Gliklich highlighted the industrial solutions business as the biggest positive surprise, noting strong volume and organic growth (adjusted for a prior-year equipment sale) and favorable mix. He added that momentum in the electronics side, particularly high-end electronics, has been a positive surprise so far in Q4.

Fran Mitsch from Fermium Research inquired about potential antitrust issues for the Micromax deal, given the quick anticipated closing time. He also asked what most positively surprised Element Solutions Inc relative to its Q3 guidance and how that trend is continuing into the fourth quarter.

Answer

President and CEO Benjamin Gliklich stated that Element Solutions Inc does not anticipate substantial regulatory hurdles for the Micromax acquisition, as it is a complementary capability with no significant technology or market share overlap. He identified the industrial solutions business as the most positive surprise in Q3, noting volume growth and organic growth when adjusting for a prior-year equipment sale. Mr. Gliklich added that momentum in the electronics side of the business has been a positive surprise thus far in Q4, indicating strong continued performance into 2026.

Frank Mitsch asked about the outlook for DIY demand, given its extended softness, and RPM's expectations for a rebound or flattening out, also inquiring about the company's September performance compared to historical trends.

Answer

Frank Sullivan, Chairman and CEO, anticipated improved financial numbers in spring/summer next year due to annualizing two years of negative consumer takeaway, new products, and an improving housing market driven by interest rate cuts, noting current housing turnover is at a 40-year low. He indicated that the pivot to growth is achieving its goals, with solid numbers, and expects Q2 to resemble Q1, excluding extraordinary healthcare expenses.

Frank Mitsch asked for RPM International's thoughts on a potential flattening out or rebound in the DIY market after an extended period of softness, and later inquired about the company's September performance compared to typical historical August-September trends.

Answer

Frank Sullivan, Chairman and CEO, anticipates improved DIY market dynamics in spring/summer next year, driven by annualizing two years of negative takeaway, new products, and potential housing market improvement with interest rate cuts, noting a 40-year low in housing turnover. He stated that the pivot to growth is working, and Q2 is expected to resemble Q1, excluding extraordinary healthcare expenses.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research sought confirmation that the $70 million in MAP savings for fiscal 2026 is incremental and asked about the drivers and sustainability of the strong performance in Europe.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Frank Sullivan confirmed the $70 million in MAP savings is incremental to fiscal 2025. However, he cautioned that these savings will be partially offset by non-material inflation like wage, salary, and insurance cost increases. Regarding Europe, he stated that most of the Q4 revenue growth was from M&A, but core profitability and cash flow are improving due to MAP initiatives, with more progress expected.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research asked for a rank order of the factors causing the degradation in the Q4 EBIT outlook from double-digit to low-single-digit growth. He also inquired about the forecast for corporate expenses.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Frank Sullivan attributed the revised outlook to the rollout from a weather-impacted Q3, ongoing tariff uncertainty causing customer indecisiveness (notably in auto and Canada), and a general slowdown in Canada. VP and CFO Rusty Gordon projected Q4 corporate expenses to be elevated above the $35 million quarterly average due to acquisition costs.

Frank Mitsch asked about the price-to-raw material cost dynamic in Q2 and the outlook, and also inquired about the company's capital allocation priorities between M&A and share buybacks.

Answer

CEO Frank Sullivan noted that pricing was roughly flat in Q2 but that the company is on 'high alert' for 1.5-2% raw material inflation and has modest price increases planned. On capital allocation, he emphasized that the balance sheet is the strongest in 35 years and that while they will moderate between buybacks and M&A, he is not afraid to use it for smart, strategic acquisitions.

Frank Mitsch questioned the full-year pricing outlook of 'slightly positive' versus a previous 1% expectation and asked for a reasonable range of volume expectations. He also sought insight into customer expectations for the timing of benefits from potential interest rate cuts.

Answer

Frank Sullivan, Chair and CEO, confirmed that a 1% price increase for the year still feels appropriate to offset modest raw material inflation. He stated that significant volume growth is not needed to achieve strong bottom-line leverage, just positive results. Regarding rate cuts, he suggested it would likely take a couple of quarters of reductions before benefits flow through to the economy and RPM's business, possibly by the spring.

Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research inquired about the trend of order cancellations, the outlook for Q3 demand, the scale of the battery binder business, and the drivers of pricing pressure in the Latex Binders segment.

Answer

President & CEO Frank Bozich explained that early Q2 order cancellations erased an expected seasonal uptick due to trade uncertainty, and a recovery depends on macro triggers. He noted that battery and CASE binders are about 20% of Latex Binders volume with higher margins. The pricing pressure was attributed to weak Chinese paperboard demand post-tariffs, leading to aggressive competitor pricing, some of which Trinseo chose not to match.

Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research sought clarification on the full-year profitability outlook for AmSty and requested more details on the drivers and scale of the high-growth consumer electronics business, particularly within the context of declining overall Asia Pacific revenue.

Answer

CEO Frank Bozich reiterated expectations for AmSty's 2025 EBITDA to be much closer to its historical average of ~$68 million. He attributed strong consumer electronics growth to sustainable, high-recycled-content solutions, noting it's 20% of APAC revenue. CFO David Stasse added that the overall APAC volume decline was driven by weakness in large-volume, lower-margin polystyrene applications, which overshadowed growth in higher-margin specialty areas.

Frank Mitsch inquired about the increase in the 2025 cash spending forecast, the P&L impact of lower styrene prices in Q1, and the reason for delaying the Americas Styrenics (AmSty) sale.

Answer

CFO David Stasse attributed the higher cash spend forecast to working capital outflow assumptions and increased cash taxes. CEO Frank Bozich explained that styrene pricing is largely a pass-through, limiting the P&L impact. Regarding AmSty, Bozich confirmed the delay into the second half of the year is a joint decision with their partner to await a better valuation environment.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research inquired about the status of the Americas Styrenics (AmSty) asset sale and asked for confirmation that recent unplanned outages were resolved. He also questioned the company's financing strategy regarding the May 2026 revolver and the repayment of sub notes.

Answer

CEO Frank Bozich confirmed that the AmSty production outages are resolved and a full contribution is expected in Q4. He stated the joint sales process with CPChem began in Q3, with a signed transaction anticipated in the first half of 2025. CFO David Stasse added that the $115 million in sub notes due in September 2025 would be addressed with either cash on hand or a refinancing transaction, with a formal announcement pending.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research inquired about the expected magnitude of market share gains in corn and soy and the potential impact of a record U.S. corn harvest on 2026 planting decisions.

Answer

EVP Judd O’Connor confirmed share gains in both corn and soy, driven by strong product performance. CEO Chuck Magro noted that despite high production, global corn stocks-to-use ratios remain tight. He suggested the 2026 acreage mix is uncertain but could see slightly less corn and more soy, pending market conditions.

Frank Mitsch asked about working capital performance, specifically the unusual inventory decline from Q3 to Q4, and the expectations for working capital in 2025.

Answer

CFO David Johnson explained that the strong 2024 cash flow included a ~$300 million tailwind from working capital, primarily from reducing high inventory levels carried into the year. The Q4 dynamic was driven by strong volumes and the deliberate clearing of high-cost seed inventory. For 2025, he expects working capital to be a slight headwind of around $100 million, which he characterized as a return to normal levels.

Frank Mitsch asked for more color on the 25% year-over-year decline in North American seed price during Q3, noting it seemed like an outlier.

Answer

EVP of the Seed Business Unit, Timothy Glenn, explained that the decline was not due to fundamental pricing pressure but rather the timing of settlements for customer replants. These normal-course-of-business costs were settled in the low-volume third quarter, making the percentage impact appear unusually large. He stressed it was a timing visibility issue, not a change in pricing strategy.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research asked for an update on the dismissed Chinese investigation into Tyvek and for more context on the reduction of the expected tariff impact from $60 million to $20 million.

Answer

CEO Lori Koch confirmed the Tyvek investigation was suspended and closed with no other investigations ongoing. CFO Antonella Franzen explained the reduced tariff forecast is based on a 90-day pause holding through year-end, though the latest tariff news is not yet factored in.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research, LLC asked for an update on the dismissed Chinese investigation into Tyvek and for context on the reduced full-year tariff impact.

Answer

CEO Lori Koch confirmed the Tyvek investigation was closed with no other issues pending. CFO Antonella Franzen explained the tariff headwind was lowered to $20M based on a 90-day pause and mitigation efforts, though the situation remains fluid.

Frank Mitsch inquired about the full-year outlook for the Healthcare & Water and Diversified Industrials businesses following their Q1 performance, and asked for an update on order book visibility in construction and auto.

Answer

CEO Lori Koch reiterated the full-year growth targets for Healthcare and Water, noting Q1's strength was partly due to easy comps. She confirmed the Diversified Industrials decline was driven by softness in shelter and auto. Regarding order books, she reported that April was strong and visibility remains consistent with historical patterns, with no signs of a slowdown.

Frank Mitsch asked what drove the Q4 performance to exceed guidance on sales, EBITDA, and EPS, and whether that positive momentum was continuing into early 2025.

Answer

CEO Lori Koch attributed the Q4 beat to stronger-than-expected demand in Electronics, including some pre-buy activity, along with better performance in Water and medical packaging. A lower-than-anticipated tax rate also contributed. She confirmed that business trends were playing out as expected in the early part of 2025.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research asked for an explanation of the 1% price decline in the E&I segment and its outlook. He also requested an update on the expected benefits from the 2024 restructuring program.

Answer

CEO Lori Koch and Executive Chairman Ed Breen explained that a roughly 1% annual price decline is typical for the E&I segment, as price gains on new products are offset by givebacks on older products. Regarding restructuring, Lori Koch confirmed the benefit number is now higher than previously guided, as the company reached its quarterly run-rate savings in Q3, with some carry-forward benefit expected in 2025.

Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research inquired about the company's latest perspective on its dividend and how long the current level of earnings would be tolerated before a potential change in policy.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Peter Huntsman stated that the Board reviews the dividend constantly and feels comfortable for now, given cash generation efforts. He affirmed that if the weak cycle persists into early 2026, the Board would make 'appropriate decisions' and would not pay a dividend if it were materially harmful to the balance sheet.

Frank Mitsch contrasted the current prolonged downturn with the sharp but brief COVID-related dip in Q2 2020, asking if the current weakness is systemic or episodic. He also requested an update on the European maleic facility, including the timeline for a strategic decision.

Answer

CEO Peter Huntsman argued the current situation is episodic, not systemic, because of the significant disconnect between order patterns and actual end-market consumption, a parallel he drew to the 2020 paralysis. Regarding the maleic facility, he stated that a 'permanent decision' on the asset is expected by the middle of the year, noting the European market continues to be flooded with low-priced imports from China and indirectly from Russia.

Frank Mitsch noted a more optimistic tone from management and asked for the specific drivers, as well as for thoughts on the potential impact of the U.S. antidumping probe on Chinese MDI.

Answer

CEO Peter Huntsman attributed his optimism to early signs of an MDI pricing recovery, citing 3-year high prices in China and multiple U.S. price increase announcements that feel more durable. Regarding the trade probe, he said a final decision is over a year away but a finding of dumping would be a net positive for Huntsman.

Frank Mitsch referenced a competitor's expansion in non-PU insulation in Europe and asked for Huntsman's take on the European insulation market's recovery prospects. He also questioned the company's thoughts on share buybacks versus M&A, given the stock's high dividend yield.

Answer

Chairman, CEO and President Peter Huntsman expressed frustration with Europe's lack of regulatory incentives for insulation, which hinders growth despite high energy prices. On capital allocation, he stated his priority is to preserve the dividend and maintain a strong balance sheet, with share buybacks or M&A to be considered only after free cash flow improves.

Speaking on behalf of Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research, Aziza asked for an update on the sale of the company's 183-acre lot in Geismar and sought more details on the company's preferred financing options, particularly regarding equipment financing versus corporate debt.

Answer

CFO Matt Plavan disclosed that 35 of the 180 acres in Geismar have been sold, with the company remaining optimistic about a transaction for the remaining portion. Plavan also elaborated on the financing strategy, stating a goal of securing 50-70% loan-to-value equipment financing and using corporate debt to cover the remainder of equipment costs and any near-term gross profit shortfalls resulting from the revised revenue timeline.

Representing Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research, Aziza asked for an update on the sale of the company's 183-acre land parcel in Geismar, Louisiana. She also sought more detail on the company's financing strategy, particularly its preferences between equipment financing and corporate debt to fund the deployment of its first eight CapFormer lines.

Answer

CFO and COO Matt Plavan responded, disclosing that Origin has successfully sold 35 of the 180 acres in Geismar and that the remainder is still for sale. Regarding financing, Plavan detailed a strategy focused on securing equipment loans covering 50% to 70% of the value, with the balance to be covered by corporate debt. This corporate debt would also serve to bridge any cash flow gaps resulting from the revised revenue timeline, ensuring a healthy cash balance through the ramp-up period.

Frank Mitsch inquired about the production timeline, the customer qualification process for the new CapFormer lines, the status of the previously announced $100 million customer MOU, and the company's minimum cash level and 2025 cash burn rate.

Answer

The company explained that qualification time varies by customer size and that caps from line 1 are used to qualify subsequent lines. The $100M MOU is delayed but the term is intact, extending into 2027, and will be part of the 2026 revenue mix along with other customers. The company aims to maintain 12-18 months of cash runway and expects 2025 cash operating expenses to be similar to 2024's, funding capex with debt.

Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research inquired about the customer qualification timeline for the new PET caps, asking how long the process takes and if qualification on Line 1 extends to future lines. He also sought an update on the previously announced $100 million MOU, its revised timeline due to production delays, and its impact on 2026 revenue projections. Finally, he asked about the company's target minimum cash level and its cash burn forecast for 2025.

Answer

CEO John Bissell explained that the qualification process is extensive, requiring millions of caps for testing on customer filling lines and for internal qualification of new equipment, with timelines varying by customer size. He confirmed the $100 million MOU's start was delayed, pushing its two-year term into 2025 and extending it into 2027, though it remains a significant part of the 2026 revenue mix. CFO and COO Matt Plavan added that the company aims for a 12-18 month cash runway and expects 2025 cash operating expenses to be similar to 2024's approximately $48 million, funded by existing capital and new debt financing.

Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research inquired about the revenue ramp-up schedule for the announced $100 million, two-year MOU for PET caps and whether any other MOUs have been signed. He also sought clarification on the potential for locating the Origin 2 plant at an Asian brownfield facility, as mentioned in the company's 10-Q.

Answer

Co-CEO Rich Riley confirmed the two-year term for the $100 million MOU and its aggressive ramp into the second year, noting Mitsch's proposed split was not 'wildly off' but without providing specific guidance. He also stated it is the only MOU announced to date. Co-CEO and Co-Founder John Bissell addressed the Origin 2 question, explaining the move from the Geismar site and confirming that Asian brownfield facilities are an efficient potential option, though no definitive plans are set.

Frank Mitsch inquired about the defense business, noting its better-than-expected performance in Q1, and asked for the full-year outlook. He also requested more detail on the transportation segment's order books and whether volumes were tracking with auto build rates.

Answer

President and CEO Dr. Ashish Khandpur stated that the defense business is expected to see double-digit growth in the first half and high-single-digit growth for the full year, driven by innovation and diversification. For transportation, he noted first-half performance would align with negative auto build rates in the U.S. and Europe, but strong growth in Asia and easier second-half comparisons should lead to a flattish to slightly positive full-year result.

Frank Mitsch inquired about the expected impact of the new Generation 3 Dyneema product, the outlook for the Defense business in 2025 given a difficult Q1 comparison, and the potential effects of a peace resolution in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Answer

President and CEO Dr. Ashish Khandpur explained that the new Dyneema product is a proprietary innovation that enhances margins and market share in personal and vehicle armor. He acknowledged the significant Q1 2024 defense sales created a tough headwind for Q1 2025. He also noted the defense portfolio is now more balanced between military and law enforcement, with expectations for increased NATO spending and new applications in non-defense areas to support long-term demand.

Frank Mitsch asked for an update on Avient's end market performance, inquiring which of the nine segments were challenged in Q3, and sought more detail on the specific applications for composite panels driving growth in residential construction.

Answer

President and CEO Dr. Ashish Khandpur confirmed that seven of nine end markets grew, with telecom and transportation remaining the two challenged areas. He explained that the growth in composite panels for residential construction is driven by the trend toward modular housing, where panels are used to build pre-fabricated rooms like kitchens and bathrooms to accelerate construction, as well as for applications like outdoor decking.

Frank Mitsch inquired about the timing of the $50-$60 million mining cost impact, the current make-versus-buy advantage, the abatement of high-cost inventory from 2024, and sought clarification on the company's commitment to its dividend.

Answer

CEO John Romano and CFO John Srivisal confirmed the mining cost headwind is front-half loaded and that vertical integration remains advantageous, albeit temporarily reduced. Srivisal noted the benefit from lower-cost inventory production is already flowing through but is offset by the mining costs. Romano concluded by affirming that the dividend remains a priority and the company plans to maintain it in 2025.