AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 was a clear beat: adjusted EPS of $2.46 vs Wall Street consensus $2.40, and revenue of $13.343B vs consensus ~$12.921B; management raised FY25 adjusted EPS guidance to $12.09–$12.29 (includes $0.13 IPR&D headwind) and lifted product sales outlooks for Skyrizi and Rinvoq . The beats were driven by outsized Immunology growth (Skyrizi +70.5% YoY; Rinvoq +57.2% YoY) and Neuroscience strength; Aesthetics remained soft .
• Strong ex-Humira platform offset accelerated Humira erosion; FY25 revenue forecast increased ~$0.7B to ~$59.7B with notable guidance raises for Skyrizi (+$0.6B to $16.5B) and Rinvoq (+$0.3B to $8.2B), while U.S. Humira was cut by $0.5B to $3.5B and Aesthetics trimmed by ~$0.2B .
• Strategic momentum: U.S. FDA approved Rinvoq for GCA (9th U.S. indication) post-quarter; Teliso-V NSCLC ADC approval anticipated in 1H 2025; Tavapadon Phase 3 results supportive; expanding ADC pipeline (ABBV-400, ABBV-706) and obesity program (ABBV-295 amylin analog) .
• Risk watch: sectoral tariff discussion (unquantified), Medicare Part D redesign headwind, and Aesthetics macro weakness (U.S. and China) remain overhangs; management outlined mitigation levers and reiterated long-term “high single-digit” revenue CAGR through 2029 and an 8-year growth runway .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Immunology outperformance: Global net revenues $6.264B (+16.6% YoY); Skyrizi $3.425B (+70.5% YoY) and Rinvoq $1.718B (+57.2% YoY) drove the beat; CEO: “first-quarter results were well ahead of our expectations” and raised FY guidance .
• Neuroscience strength: $2.282B (+16.1% YoY) with VRAYLAR $765M (+10.3%), Botox Therapeutic $866M (+15.8%), and oral CGRP combined $433M; management highlighted double-digit operational growth across all three therapies .
• Guidance raise and pipeline catalysts: FY25 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $12.09–$12.29 (includes $0.13 IPR&D); FY revenue guide to ~$59.7B; product guides increased (Skyrizi +$600M; Rinvoq +$300M); Teliso-V approval expected in 1H 2025; FDA approved Rinvoq for GCA after quarter .

What Went Wrong

• Humira decline accelerated: Global Humira $1.121B (-50.6% YoY), with faster share erosion and molecule compression; U.S. Humira FY25 cut by $0.5B to $3.5B .
• Aesthetics softness: Portfolio $1.102B (-11.7% YoY); Botox Cosmetic $556M (-12.3% YoY) and Juvederm $231M (-22.2% YoY); management moderated FY assumptions amid economic headwinds and China weakness .
• Tariff overhang and Part D headwind: Sectoral tariffs (unquantified) not in guidance; Medicare Part D redesign is a growth headwind in 2025; management discussed mitigation and U.S. manufacturing footprint but cannot pass tariffs to customers easily .

Financial Results

Headline results and margins vs prior periods and estimates

Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown and sequential comparison

Key product KPIs (sequential)

Estimates vs actuals (Q1 2025)

Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• CEO: “AbbVie is off to an excellent start…we are well positioned to exceed our previous peak revenue in just the second full year following the U.S. Humira LOE…clear runway to growth for at least the next 8 years” .
• CCO: “Skyrizi and Rinvoq are demonstrating impressive results across all…approved indications, and we will be raising our full year sales guidance for both products” .
• CFO: “We are raising our full year adjusted EPS guidance to between $12.09 and $12.29…now expect total net revenues of approximately $59.7 billion, an increase of $700 million” .
• R&D: Teliso-V accelerated approval anticipated in 2Q; ADCs ABBV-400 and ABBV-706 progressing; Tavapadon Phase 3 supportive; obesity amylin analog interim data promising .
• Tariffs: “We could take inventory management actions or secure alternate sources of API…more challenging is trying to pass tariff impacts to our customers” .

Q&A Highlights

• Drivers of Skyrizi/Rinvoq raises: Split of Skyrizi +$600M (IBD $400M; psoriatic $200M) and Rinvoq +$300M (rheum/derm/IBD ~$100M each) .
• Humira tail: Faster erosion; molecule compression; expect step down again into 2026, but tail becomes less meaningful to corporate growth .
• Tariffs mitigation and IP domiciling: Near-term inventory/actions; significant U.S. footprint reduces outsized impact; tax reform emphasis .
• Aesthetics dynamics: U.S. toxin share recovering post-Alle reversion; China share improving in toxins/fillers; FY impact from existing tariffs modest (~$30M) and absorbed .
• Obesity strategy: Monotherapy positioning to improve tolerability and durability; neutral pH enables combinations; further dose exploration underway .
• Pricing: Immunology sees low single-digit rebate pressure; Part D is onetime headwind; volume drives growth .

Estimates Context

• Q1 2025 results exceeded consensus on both revenue and adjusted EPS (see table above). The magnitude of the beat was driven by Immunology and Neuroscience outperformance, while Aesthetics lagged.
• With FY25 EPS guide raised and product-level outlooks increased (Skyrizi, Rinvoq), Street estimates are likely to revise higher for Immunology while trimming Aesthetics and Humira trajectories .

Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• The growth algorithm is intact and accelerating: ex-Humira platform delivered the beat; FY revenue/EPS guidance raised; Immunology and Neuroscience carry momentum .
• Immunology is the core catalyst: Skyrizi/Rinvoq share capture across IBD/psoriasis/atopic dermatitis supports continued upside; management raised FY guides for both .
• Oncology optionality is increasing: near-term Teliso-V approval and expanding ADC programs (ABBV-400/706) broaden solid tumor exposure; Elahere international ramp underway .
• Aesthetics remains a cyclical headwind but has pipeline catalysts (BoNT/E submission mid-year; combination programs); expect gradual recovery with category stimulation .
• Macro/policy risks: Sectoral tariffs (unquantified) and Medicare Part D redesign are headwinds; U.S. manufacturing and mitigation actions help, but monitor policy developments closely .
• Trading setup: Near-term catalysts include Teliso-V decision, Tavapadon regulatory submission, and continued Immunology share gains; estimate revisions likely skew positive in Immunology .
• Medium-term thesis: 8-year runway with high single-digit revenue CAGR through 2029; diversified pipeline and BD underpin sustainability beyond Skyrizi/Rinvoq .