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    ACI Worldwide Inc (ACIW)

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    ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW) is a global leader in electronic payment solutions, enabling secure and real-time digital transactions for over 6,000 organizations, including some of the largest banks, merchants, and intermediaries. The company offers a comprehensive suite of software products and services that facilitate payments and securities transactions, processing approximately $14 trillion daily. ACI Worldwide's solutions are delivered through on-premises installations, public cloud, or its private cloud, catering to a wide range of customers across various industries.

    1. Billers - Provides electronic bill presentment and payment services, enabling businesses to streamline billing processes and offer customers flexible payment options.
    2. Banks - Offers real-time payment capabilities and omni-channel payment solutions to financial institutions, supporting transactions across ATMs, POS terminals, mobile devices, and internet commerce sites.
    3. Merchants - Delivers payment processing solutions tailored for global merchants, ensuring secure and efficient transactions across various sales channels.
    Initial Price$39.58July 1, 2024
    Final Price$50.46October 1, 2024
    Price Change$10.88
    % Change+27.49%

    What went well

    • Strong Growth Pipeline for 2025: ACI has a healthy pipeline for 2025, with expectations to continue strong growth despite outperformance in 2024, supported by early contract renewals and focus on accelerating the sales pipeline.
    • Payments Hub Development On Track: The development of ACI's cloud-native payments hub is progressing as scheduled, with pilot implementations expected in the second quarter of next year, and there is significant customer interest, including potential expansion into the mid-tier bank segment.
    • Trusted Partner to Top Banks: ACI plays a critical role in global payment infrastructure, processing trillions of dollars daily, and is perceived as a strategic partner by the world's largest financial institutions, driving growth in the bank segment.

    What went wrong

    • Uncertainty around the Payments Hub launch: The company's next-generation Payments Hub platform is still under development, with pilot implementations expected in the beginning of second quarter next year, but the full-scale general availability date is uncertain. The CEO stated, "I don't know exactly when the full-scale general availability will be." This uncertainty could delay revenue growth from this product.
    • Challenging growth comparisons for 2025 due to strong 2024 performance: After a year where software license fees could be up 20%, there may be difficulty in continuing strong overall growth rates in 2025. An analyst noted, "It just does seem to... present a pretty tough comparison to continue strong overall growth rates, at least in certain quarters next year."
    • Limited contribution from mid-sized banks: The growth in the Bank segment is primarily driven by large banks, with minimal contribution from mid-sized banks so far. The CEO mentioned that there is "not a whole lot of contribution directly from that segment at this point", indicating reliance on large customers, which may pose risks if demand slows.

    Q&A Summary

    1. Banks Segment Growth Outlook
      Q: What's driving medium-term growth in banks?
      A: The banks segment is experiencing strong growth due to customers investing heavily in new products and seeking partners like ACI to enhance efficiency and speed to market. ACI is exercising some pricing power and is increasingly perceived as a partner helping banks achieve their objectives, strengthening the medium-term growth outlook.

    2. 2025 Pipeline and Outlook
      Q: How is early renewal activity impacting future growth?
      A: By completing most of this year's renewals earlier, ACI can focus on accelerating next year's pipeline. This shift allows the team to concentrate on new business for 2025, resulting in a strong pipeline and positioning ACI to continue seeing strength in 2025 and beyond, even with this year's outperformance.

    3. Payments Hub Development
      Q: When will the Payments Hub be piloted and available?
      A: Initial pilot implementations of the Payments Hub are expected to begin at the beginning of the second quarter next year. ACI aims to ensure the solution works as intended before determining full-scale general availability, focusing on solidifying the initial pilots.

    4. Impact of U.S. Election
      Q: How might the U.S. election impact your business?
      A: While it's early to quantify, the potential for a less regulated environment in the U.S. could be positive for ACI. Banks may have tailwinds like regulatory and economic factors, leading to more technology spending. However, as a global company, changes in the U.S. don't significantly alter ACI's overall expectations.

    5. Segment Performance and Outlook
      Q: Has anything changed in the segment outlook?
      A: There haven't been significant changes under the hood. Banks have been extremely strong, and this strength is expected to continue. The biller segment shows seasonality but is performing well, and the merchant business has turned positive, contributing to growth. All segments are expected to contribute to growth next year.

    6. Mid-sized Banks Opportunity
      Q: How are mid-sized banks contributing to growth?
      A: Currently, mid-sized banks are contributing very little to the segment. The opportunity mainly comes from the Payments Hub, but ACI is not yet advancing sales there to avoid overpromising. Future contributions are expected, particularly through SaaS delivery to mid-tier banks, but current strength comes from core large banks.

    7. Competitive Environment in Real-Time Payments
      Q: What's the competitive landscape in real-time payments?
      A: The competitive environment remains stable. Most new business in real-time payments is net new, not from expansion. ACI has secured 11 central infrastructures globally, all new implementations. The company continues to see tremendous growth in this area and often partners with organizations like Mastercard.

    8. Strategic Position with Banks
      Q: How do existing relationships with banks affect future products?
      A: ACI's platforms are integral to the payments infrastructure of the largest banks, processing trillions of dollars daily. This trusted position makes ACI a natural partner for future initiatives like the Payments Hub. Customers rely on ACI's reliable products and are open to collaborating on future solutions.

    1. With your strong overperformance in 2024, particularly due to pulling forward license renewals, how do you plan to sustain revenue growth in 2025, and what gives you confidence that growth rates can continue despite tougher comparisons?
    2. You indicated that Payment Hub pilot implementations are expected in the second quarter of next year; can you provide more detail on when the Payment Hub will be generally available and how it's factored into your 2025 growth expectations?
    3. Given that the strength in the Banks segment is driven by large banks with on-premise licenses, what strategies are you employing to accelerate growth among mid-tier banks through SaaS offerings, and how significant is this opportunity in your medium-term growth plan?
    4. As competition in Real-Time Payments intensifies, how do you plan to maintain your competitive edge, and are you seeing any pricing pressure or changes in the competitive environment that could impact your growth in this space?
    5. With your significant investments in the Payments Hub and AI initiatives, how are you balancing the associated costs with the need to maintain or improve EBITDA margins, and when do you expect to see a return on these investments?
    Program DetailsProgram 1
    Approval Date2005
    End Date/DurationN/A
    Total Additional Amount$400.0 million (June 2024)
    Remaining Authorization$372.3 million (as of 2024-09-30)
    DetailsRepurchases depend on factors like working capital needs, acquisitions, debt obligations, stock price, and market conditions. Can be conducted via open market or Rule 10b5-1 plan. Flexible to suspend or discontinue.

    ACI Worldwide (ACIW) Guidance in the Last Four Earnings Calls

    Earnings Call TitleIssued PeriodGuided PeriodGuidance
    Q3 2024 Earnings CallQ3 2024FY 20241. Revenue: $1.567 billion to $1.601 billion. <br> 2. Adjusted EBITDA: $433 million to $448 million. <br> 3. Tracking to High End of Guidance: Indicated tracking toward the high end of both revenue and adjusted EBITDA ranges.
    Q2 2024 Earnings CallQ2 2024Q3 2024 and FY 2024Q3 2024 Guidance: <br> 1. Revenue: $400 million to $410 million. <br> 2. Adjusted EBITDA: $110 million to $120 million. <br> FY 2024 Guidance: <br> 1. Revenue: $1.557 billion to $1.591 billion. <br> 2. Adjusted EBITDA: $423 million to $438 million.
    Q1 2024 Earnings CallQ1 2024Q2 2024 and FY 2024Q2 2024 Guidance: <br> 1. Revenue: $345 million to $355 million. <br> 2. Adjusted EBITDA: $60 million to $70 million. <br> FY 2024 Guidance: <br> 1. Revenue: $1.547 billion to $1.581 billion. <br> 2. Adjusted EBITDA: $418 million to $433 million.
    Q4 2023 Earnings CallQ4 2023FY 20241. Revenue Growth: 7% to 9%, with revenue in the range of $1.547 billion to $1.576 billion. <br> 2. Adjusted EBITDA: $418 million to $428 million. <br> 3. Net Interest Expense: $50 million to $65 million. <br> 4. Depreciation and Amortization: $115 million to $120 million. <br> 5. Non-Cash Share-Based Compensation Expense: $30 million to $35 million. <br> 6. Effective Tax Rate: 25%. <br> 7. Diluted Share Count: ~108 million (excluding future share buyback activity). <br> 8. Q1 2024 Revenue: $300 million to $310 million. <br> 9. Q1 2024 Adjusted EBITDA: $25 million to $35 million.