Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Adobe is experiencing strong momentum in its enterprise segment, winning large transformational deals and achieving the largest bookings quarter ever.
- Adobe's AI innovations, including Firefly models and AI Assistant, are seeing significant customer adoption, driving financial performance and positioning the company for strong growth ahead.
- Adobe's Document Cloud continues to show strong growth and durability, with increased monthly active users and new AI features like AI Assistant driving adoption and expanding the product's value proposition.
- Despite significant innovation, Adobe's Creative Cloud growth was only 2%, and guidance indicates further deceleration, raising concerns about the company's ability to accelerate growth.
- Investors are concerned about the lack of acceleration in Adobe's numbers, with the stock being a major underperformer on a year-to-date basis and down again in after-hours trading.
- Potential pricing sensitivity is hindering Adobe's ability to leverage pricing as a growth driver, despite delivering significant value, which may impact profitability.
| Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +11% | The growth built on the prior 10% YoY increase in Q3 2023 and 11% YoY increase in Q3 2024, driven by subscription revenue gains in Creative Cloud and Document Cloud offerings, as well as continued AI-related demand (e.g., Firefly) that boosted adoption across Digital Media and Digital Experience segments. |
SG&A | +14% | Expenses rose following a similar pattern of increasing compensation costs, marketing spend, and consulting fees observed in Q3 2023 and Q3 2024. Company-specific investments in acquisition-related fees, higher charitable contributions, and sales & marketing programs continued to drive SG&A upward. |
R&D | +12% | This reflects the ongoing focus on innovation, similar to the 14% YoY increase in Q3 2023 and 16% YoY increase in Q3 2024, with base compensation, incentive compensation, and hosting services costs all rising as AI and cloud-based R&D initiatives expanded. |
Operating Income | +12% | Following the 14.5% YoY increase in Q3 2023 and 17% YoY increase in Q3 2024, the revenue gains outpaced the rise in operating expenses. Controlled expense growth, coupled with strong subscription momentum, resulted in higher profitability. |
Net Income | +13% | Building on a 26% YoY increase in Q3 2023 and 20% YoY increase in Q3 2024, improved operating margins, lower cost of revenue, and effective tax management contributed to healthy net income growth, supported by robust demand for AI-features and enterprise solutions. |
EPS (Diluted) | +17% | Reflecting the 26% YoY increase in Q3 2023 and 23% YoY (GAAP) increase in Q3 2024, share repurchases, higher operating income, and AI-driven revenue expansion pushed earnings per share upward. A slightly lower effective tax rate and fewer outstanding shares also aided EPS growth. |
| Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Adobe Revenue | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $5.63B to $5.68B | no prior guidance |
Digital Media Segment Revenue | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $4.17B to $4.20B | no prior guidance |
Digital Experience Segment Revenue | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $1.38B to $1.40B | no prior guidance |
Digital Experience Subscription Revenue | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $1.27B to $1.29B | no prior guidance |
GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS) | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $3.85 to $3.90 | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS) | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $4.95 to $5.00 | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP Operating Margin | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | Approximately 47% | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP Tax Rate | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | Approximately 18.5% | no prior guidance |
Total Adobe Revenue | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $23.30B to $23.55B | no prior guidance |
Digital Media Segment Revenue | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $17.25B to $17.40B | no prior guidance |
Digital Media Ending ARR Growth | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | 11.0% year-over-year | no prior guidance |
Digital Experience Segment Revenue | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $5.80B to $5.90B | no prior guidance |
Digital Experience Subscription Revenue | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $5.375B to $5.425B | no prior guidance |
GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $15.80 to $16.10 | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $20.20 to $20.50 | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP Operating Margin | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Approximately 46% | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP Tax Rate | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Approximately 18.5% | no prior guidance |
| Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Revenue | Q4 2024 | 5.50B to 5.55B | 5.606B | Beat |
Digital Media Segment Revenue | Q4 2024 | 4.09B to 4.12B | 4.145B | Beat |
Digital Experience Segment Revenue | Q4 2024 | 1.36B to 1.38B | 1.396B | Beat |
GAAP EPS (Diluted) | Q4 2024 | 3.58 to 3.63 | 3.78 | Beat |
| Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
Generative AI (Firefly, AI Assistant) | Q1–Q3: Introduced and expanded Firefly family (e.g., Generative Fill, Recolor, and AI Assistant in Acrobat), accumulating billions of generations. | Firefly innovations remain central. Over 16B cumulative generations. Firefly Video Model in beta; higher-priced Firefly tiers planned. | Consistent focus; deeper integrations and monetization each quarter. |
Digital Media Net New ARR Growth and Guidance | Q1: $432M; Q2: $487M; Q3: $504M with skepticism around Q4 guidance. Full-year targets repeatedly raised until Q3 concerns. | $578M in net new ARR, totaling $2B for FY. Analysts expressed concerns over slowing growth. | Shift from optimism in Q2 to worries about slower growth in Q3/Q4. |
Document Cloud ARR and user base expansion | Q1–Q3: Consistent ARR gains ($143M, $165M, $163M). Emphasis on MAU expansion via Acrobat Web and browser integrations. | Added $173M net new ARR (23% YoY). Surpassed 650M paid/free users, with over 25% MAU growth. | Steady expansion with strong conversion of free users to paid. |
Lack of transparency on net new ARR drivers from Q2 no longer mentioned in later quarters | Not specifically addressed in Q1–Q3. [N/A] | No mention. [N/A] | No further discussion after Q2. |
Q1 text-to-video references no longer appearing in subsequent calls | Q1: Planned text-to-video capabilities “later in the year.” No follow-ups in Q2–Q3. | No mention. [N/A] | Dropped; not referenced beyond Q1. |
Firefly Video Model introduced in Q4 2024 | Q3: Early mention of a new Firefly video model; no Q2/Q1 references. | Beta launched, drew 70% increase in Premiere Pro beta users; broader release in early 2025. | New in Q3/Q4; expanded integration in Q4. |
Largest bookings quarter ever in Digital Experience announced in Q4 2024 | No prior mentions. [N/A] | Marked largest DX bookings quarter, with AEP and native apps surpassing $1B. | New highlight in Q4. |
Sentiment shift on Digital Media ARR from optimism in Q2 to concerns over slowing growth in Q3 and Q4 | Q3: Guidance cuts led to concerns; Q2 was still optimistic, lifting full-year targets. | Analysts questioned decelerating Creative Cloud growth (2% in Q4) and lower FY 2025 outlook. | Shift to caution in Q3/Q4. |
AI sentiment evolving from bullish in Q1/Q2 to increased competition and pricing concerns in Q3/Q4 | Q3: Confidence in Firefly differentiation, little mention of pricing pressure. Q1–Q2: Largely bullish. | No direct remarks on AI competition or pricing pressures. [N/A] | Not explicitly discussed in Q4. |
Price sensitivity in lower-end markets potentially impacting future revenue | Not addressed in Q1–Q3. [N/A] | Acknowledged in Q4 for freemium/conversion segments. Targeting “proliferation over short-term monetization.” | New mention in Q4. |
Competition in AI posing challenges to monetizing generative AI features | Q3: Management stressed differentiators (commercial safety, integration). Q2 & Q1: Positioned AI as an opportunity. | No mention. [N/A] | Mostly a Q3 discussion. |
Generative AI possibly reducing the need for traditional creative professionals | Q2 & Q1: Framed as an accelerant for creatives, not a replacement. | No discussion in Q4. [N/A] | Not repeated after Q2. |
Enterprise deal scrutiny affecting Digital Experience performance | Q3: Acknowledged closer scrutiny, but Adobe’s integrated solutions seen as a differentiator. | No mention. [N/A] | Mentioned only in Q3. |
Document Cloud’s surpassing of 650 million users as a significant future growth driver | No mention in prior quarters. [N/A] | Surpassed 650M users; strong top-of-funnel expansion. | Newly emphasized milestone in Q4. |
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Growth Amid AI Innovation
Q: Why isn't growth accelerating despite AI innovations?
A: Shantanu Narayen acknowledged that while Adobe exceeded its targets for the year, investors might not see acceleration due to the business mix shifting. The core Creative business is performing in line with expectations, and significant adoption of AI offerings like Firefly Services and GenStudio is driving value. Adobe balances proliferation at the lower end with products like Express and Acrobat, and delivers significant value at the high end with Creative Pro and enterprise solutions. The company remains confident in its growth strategy and innovation pipeline. -
AI Growth Drivers and ARR Impact
Q: How will Firefly and GenStudio drive growth in ARR?
A: David Wadhwani explained that Firefly and GenStudio are key to Adobe's growth strategy. By introducing new value through AI integrations, Adobe can create more segmentation and tiering of Creative products, aligning value with pricing. This approach is expected to bring in new users and offer higher-value tiers, particularly with upcoming video models and enterprise solutions like GenStudio. New users, new products, and value-based pricing will be significant contributors to ARR growth in FY '25. -
Document Cloud Durability
Q: How durable is Document Cloud's growth, and what drives it?
A: David Wadhwani stated that Document Cloud's strong growth is rooted in PDF being the de facto standard for unstructured data. Monthly active users continue to grow due to effective conversion of free users to paid across desktop, mobile, and web platforms. The introduction of AI Assistant enhances Acrobat's value, transforming it into a general-purpose productivity platform. This, along with expansions into new languages and vertical use cases, drives durable growth in the Document Cloud segment. -
Pricing Strategy and Sensitivity
Q: Is there pricing sensitivity limiting price increases?
A: David Wadhwani explained that while there is price sensitivity, especially at the lower end of the market, Adobe sees significant opportunity to deliver new value and adjust pricing accordingly. The company focuses on introducing new features and creating more segmentation and tiering in its offerings, ensuring users are in the right plans for their needs. This strategy balances proliferation with monetization and is expected to drive growth. -
Firefly Integration and Conversion
Q: How will integrating Firefly into core apps affect conversion?
A: David Wadhwani highlighted that integrating Firefly across products like Photoshop and Lightroom enhances user onboarding and retention. The inclusion of generative AI capabilities leads to faster success for new users and increased retention for existing ones. By offering unique, commercially safe AI models deeply integrated into workflows, Adobe drives top-of-funnel growth and improves conversion rates. -
Consumption Models and ARR Growth
Q: Will consumption contribute to ARR growth in FY '25?
A: Shantanu Narayen indicated that consumption will contribute more to ARR growth in FY '25 through offerings like video, which will have consumption-based pricing. Enterprise solutions like GenStudio and Firefly Services are seeing significant momentum and are consumption-based. Additionally, the introduction of more premium-priced offerings provides users with more value without requiring them to monitor individual usage, contributing to ARR growth. -
Current RPO Growth Expectations
Q: Will current RPO growth remain at current levels?
A: Daniel Durn expressed confidence in Adobe's ability to drive business growth, citing strong enterprise bookings and momentum in premium products. While he did not provide specific guidance on current RPO, he is encouraged by the innovation and opportunities in both the Digital Media and Digital Experience segments, expecting continued growth driven by large transformational deals and cross-cloud opportunities. -
Black Friday Impact on ARR
Q: Did Black Friday affect Creative Cloud ARR?
A: Daniel Durn noted that Black Friday and Cyber Monday performed as expected, with consumer activity spreading over a larger window of time. Online shopping was up 8.4% this year compared to 4.8% last year. While Cyber Monday growth was 7.3%, down from 9.6% last year, this reflects a flattening profile in consumer behavior rather than a decline in demand.