Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
- Affirm's business model demonstrates resilience to rising interest rates, as it is less sensitive to minor rate movements, allowing the company to continue growing regardless of interest rate fluctuations.
- Affirm Card is experiencing rapid growth, trending towards becoming a multibillion-dollar business within 12 to 18 months, indicating strong user adoption and engagement, which contributes to Affirm's expansion and diversification.
- Affirm is showing strong GMV growth with year-over-year acceleration expected in Q4, driven by strategic partnerships and expansion into new merchant categories, positioning the company for sustained growth.
- Affirm's guidance implies a deceleration in GMV growth to around 25% year-over-year for the fourth quarter, down from the 36% growth in the prior quarter. This suggests that future growth may be slowing.
- Potential increase in delinquencies during the summer season could impact credit performance. Max Levchin mentioned that delinquencies are expected to fluctuate seasonally, likely increasing, which could pose a risk to the company's financials. ,
- Despite recent margin improvements, Affirm does not expect margins to continue expanding beyond previous guidance, as they plan to invest in growth opportunities requiring additional resources.
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GMV Growth Guidance
Q: Why is Q4 GMV growth slowing compared to Q3? Any cautiousness?
A: Management doesn't run the business on a quarter-by-quarter basis. The Q4 guidance implies faster year-over-year growth than last year, with high-end guidance suggesting about 58% growth, a slight deceleration from Q3 but not material. -
Resilient Margins Amid Rising Rates
Q: How are GMV and margins so resilient despite rising interest rates?
A: They are not highly rate-sensitive as long as rates move in subtle increments. The business isn't ultimately sensitive to minor rate movements, and higher rates are acceptable. -
Operating Margin Improvements
Q: What is driving the operating margin outperformance, and can it continue?
A: They've achieved meaningful operating leverage through strong unit economics growth and flat or reducing fixed operating expenses. Some trends may continue, but they plan to invest in future opportunities. -
Affirm Card Usage Trends
Q: How do you view the Affirm Card's volume growth trajectory?
A: The sequential decline is entirely seasonal. On a trailing 12-month basis, spend per user increased at a healthy rate from Q2 to Q3. They see significant growth potential with exciting features forthcoming. -
Balancing GMV Growth and Credit Risk
Q: How should we think about GMV vs. credit risk and potential delinquencies?
A: They're over-earning and will reinvest gains but not by loosening credit standards. They maintain vigilant credit management and separate growth from credit risk. -
AI in Customer Service
Q: How are you using AI to reduce customer support costs?
A: They've invested heavily in AI, especially in chat support, as consumers prefer chatting. AI preworks queries, leading to faster resolutions and potential cost savings over the next 1–3 years. -
International Expansion
Q: Is your funding model agnostic internationally? Will credit models transfer?
A: They'll need to localize funding for markets like the UK. While expecting a learning period, they believe credit models can transfer, as seen in Canada. -
Merchant Additions
Q: Where are you seeing success with new merchant additions?
A: It's a general increase, with excitement around midsized businesses focused on growth. They're also partnering with distributors to expand their reach. -
Average Order Value Trends
Q: What are you seeing in Average Order Value and usage patterns?
A: AOV trends are stable, and any downward movement is intentional. As AOV moderates, transaction frequency rises steadily. -
Affirm Card Customer Segments
Q: Which customer segments resonate with Affirm Card?
A: It appeals to habitual revolvers seeking explicit financing choices. They aim to address other credit bands but focus on those wanting control over debt. -
Competition with Capital One and Discover
Q: How does Capital One partnering with Discover impact Affirm?
A: They respect the move but view any new network as beneficial. Their product is fundamentally different, focusing on SKU-level data and direct merchant integration. -
Customer Acquisition and Exclusivity
Q: Does being the exclusive BNPL provider affect customer acquisition?
A: Exclusivity isn't crucial; they perform well alongside competitors. Side-by-side launches often see higher repeat rates due to brand strength. -
Affirm Card in Offline Commerce
Q: Any updates on Affirm Card usage in specific verticals or offline?
A: They're enhancing the card for daily transactions like groceries, gas, and restaurants. Pay Now usage is increasing as consumers better understand the product.
Research analysts covering Affirm Holdings.