Sign in

    Affirm Holdings (AFRM)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Mar 17, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$34.90Last close (May 7, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$35.50Open (May 8, 2024)
    Price Change
    $0.60(+1.72%)
    • Affirm's business model demonstrates resilience to rising interest rates, as it is less sensitive to minor rate movements, allowing the company to continue growing regardless of interest rate fluctuations.
    • Affirm Card is experiencing rapid growth, trending towards becoming a multibillion-dollar business within 12 to 18 months, indicating strong user adoption and engagement, which contributes to Affirm's expansion and diversification.
    • Affirm is showing strong GMV growth with year-over-year acceleration expected in Q4, driven by strategic partnerships and expansion into new merchant categories, positioning the company for sustained growth.
    • Affirm's guidance implies a deceleration in GMV growth to around 25% year-over-year for the fourth quarter, down from the 36% growth in the prior quarter. This suggests that future growth may be slowing.
    • Potential increase in delinquencies during the summer season could impact credit performance. Max Levchin mentioned that delinquencies are expected to fluctuate seasonally, likely increasing, which could pose a risk to the company's financials. ,
    • Despite recent margin improvements, Affirm does not expect margins to continue expanding beyond previous guidance, as they plan to invest in growth opportunities requiring additional resources.
    1. GMV Growth Guidance
      Q: Why is Q4 GMV growth slowing compared to Q3? Any cautiousness?
      A: Management doesn't run the business on a quarter-by-quarter basis. The Q4 guidance implies faster year-over-year growth than last year, with high-end guidance suggesting about 58% growth, a slight deceleration from Q3 but not material.

    2. Resilient Margins Amid Rising Rates
      Q: How are GMV and margins so resilient despite rising interest rates?
      A: They are not highly rate-sensitive as long as rates move in subtle increments. The business isn't ultimately sensitive to minor rate movements, and higher rates are acceptable.

    3. Operating Margin Improvements
      Q: What is driving the operating margin outperformance, and can it continue?
      A: They've achieved meaningful operating leverage through strong unit economics growth and flat or reducing fixed operating expenses. Some trends may continue, but they plan to invest in future opportunities.

    4. Affirm Card Usage Trends
      Q: How do you view the Affirm Card's volume growth trajectory?
      A: The sequential decline is entirely seasonal. On a trailing 12-month basis, spend per user increased at a healthy rate from Q2 to Q3. They see significant growth potential with exciting features forthcoming.

    5. Balancing GMV Growth and Credit Risk
      Q: How should we think about GMV vs. credit risk and potential delinquencies?
      A: They're over-earning and will reinvest gains but not by loosening credit standards. They maintain vigilant credit management and separate growth from credit risk.

    6. AI in Customer Service
      Q: How are you using AI to reduce customer support costs?
      A: They've invested heavily in AI, especially in chat support, as consumers prefer chatting. AI preworks queries, leading to faster resolutions and potential cost savings over the next 1–3 years.

    7. International Expansion
      Q: Is your funding model agnostic internationally? Will credit models transfer?
      A: They'll need to localize funding for markets like the UK. While expecting a learning period, they believe credit models can transfer, as seen in Canada.

    8. Merchant Additions
      Q: Where are you seeing success with new merchant additions?
      A: It's a general increase, with excitement around midsized businesses focused on growth. They're also partnering with distributors to expand their reach.

    9. Average Order Value Trends
      Q: What are you seeing in Average Order Value and usage patterns?
      A: AOV trends are stable, and any downward movement is intentional. As AOV moderates, transaction frequency rises steadily.

    10. Affirm Card Customer Segments
      Q: Which customer segments resonate with Affirm Card?
      A: It appeals to habitual revolvers seeking explicit financing choices. They aim to address other credit bands but focus on those wanting control over debt.

    11. Competition with Capital One and Discover
      Q: How does Capital One partnering with Discover impact Affirm?
      A: They respect the move but view any new network as beneficial. Their product is fundamentally different, focusing on SKU-level data and direct merchant integration.

    12. Customer Acquisition and Exclusivity
      Q: Does being the exclusive BNPL provider affect customer acquisition?
      A: Exclusivity isn't crucial; they perform well alongside competitors. Side-by-side launches often see higher repeat rates due to brand strength.

    13. Affirm Card in Offline Commerce
      Q: Any updates on Affirm Card usage in specific verticals or offline?
      A: They're enhancing the card for daily transactions like groceries, gas, and restaurants. Pay Now usage is increasing as consumers better understand the product.

    Research analysts covering Affirm Holdings.