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AMGEN INC (AMGN)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 total revenues were $9.086B (+11% YoY), driven by 11% product sales growth and 14% volume growth; non-GAAP EPS was $5.31 (+13% YoY) while GAAP EPS fell to $1.16 (-18% YoY) due to mark-to-market losses on equity investments .
  • Record quarterly free cash flow of $4.4B, with full-year 2024 free cash flow of $10.4B, reflecting strong collections and lower transaction costs vs. Q4 2023 .
  • 2025 guidance introduced: revenue $34.3–$35.7B; GAAP EPS $10.89–$12.14; non-GAAP EPS $20.00–$21.20; non-GAAP operating margin ~46%; non-GAAP cost of sales 18–19%; R&D growth mid-teens; SG&A down 1–2 pts; OI&E ~$2.4B; capex ~$2.3B; buybacks ≤$500M .
  • Growth engines: Repatha (+45% YoY to $606M), TEZSPIRE (+67% YoY to $296M), BLINCYTO (+58% YoY to $381M), EVENITY (+36% YoY to $431M), IMDELLTRA ramp ($67M, +86% QoQ), and rare disease portfolio ($1.2B in Q4) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Broad-based growth: “We exited the fourth quarter with 14 medicines each annualizing at over $1 billion,” underpinning momentum across four therapeutic areas and geographies .
  • Cardiometabolic franchise acceleration: Repatha grew 45% YoY in Q4 to $606M; management expects less net price erosion in 2025, supported by improved access and primary-care penetration .
  • Oncology innovation: IMDELLTRA quarterly sales rose 86% QoQ to $67M, and BLINCYTO delivered robust growth and practice-changing pediatric data, reinforcing first-line consolidation role .
  • Cash generation: Record Q4 free cash flow of $4.4B on strong collections and disciplined capital allocation .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP earnings pressure: GAAP EPS down 18% YoY to $1.16 on equity mark-to-market losses; GAAP other expense swung to $(782)M in Q4 vs. $402M in Q4’23 .
  • Margin mix headwinds: Non-GAAP cost of sales as % of product sales rose 1.3 pts YoY to 17.6%, reflecting sales mix and higher profit share/royalties; non-GAAP operating margin declined 0.4 pts YoY to 46.3% .
  • Legacy erosion and pricing: Otezla down 1% YoY in Q4; established products declined 29% YoY; biosimilar competition expected to pressure XGEVA and Prolia in 2025, and Enbrel net price declines to continue .

Financial Results

Revenues, EPS, and Margins vs. Prior Periods

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenues ($B)$8.388 $8.503 $9.086
Diluted EPS (GAAP, $)$1.38 $5.22 $1.16
Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP, $)$4.97 $5.58 $5.31
Operating Margin (GAAP, % of product sales)23.7% 25.1% 26.5%
Operating Margin (Non-GAAP, % of product sales)48.2% 49.6% 46.3%
Tax Rate (GAAP, %)6.0% 8.7% 19.8%
Tax Rate (Non-GAAP, %)14.9% 13.4% 14.8%

Q4 2024 Product Sales Breakdown (YoY)

ProductU.S. ($M)ROW ($M)Total ($M)YoY Δ
Repatha315 291 606 45%
EVENITY325 106 431 36%
Prolia775 390 1,165 5%
TEPEZZA (rare)456 4 460 3%
KRYSTEXXA (rare)346 — 346 27%
UPLIZNA (rare)93 8 101 55%
TAVNEOS76 5 81 84%
TEZSPIRE296 — 296 67%
Otezla514 110 624 (1%)
Enbrel1,008 7 1,015 0%
AMJEVITA/AMGEVITA153 141 294 84%
BLINCYTO245 136 381 58%
Vectibix134 112 246 (2%)
KYPROLIS236 136 372 6%
LUMAKRAS/LUMYKRAS53 32 85 10%
XGEVA369 192 561 6%
Nplate221 116 337 (13%)
IMDELLTRA67 — 67 N/A
MVASI108 65 173 (8%)
Aranesp90 218 308 (3%)
Neulasta72 26 98 (59%)
Other products294 67 361 22%
Total Product Sales6,509 2,207 8,716 11%

KPIs and Cash Metrics

MetricQ4 2024Q4 2023FY 2024FY 2023
Operating Cash Flow ($B)$4.8 $0.5 $11.5 $8.5
Capital Expenditures ($B)$0.4 $0.2 $1.1 $1.1
Free Cash Flow ($B)$4.4 $0.3 $10.4 $7.4
Dividends Paid ($B)$1.2 $1.1 $4.8 $4.6
Share Repurchases ($B)$0.2 — $0.2 —
Avg. Diluted Shares (mm)542 540 541 538
Cash & Investments ($B)$12.0 $10.9 ——
Debt Outstanding ($B)$60.1 $64.6 ——
Debt Leverage (Debt/EBITDA, x)4.5x ———

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total RevenuesFY 2025N/A$34.3–$35.7B New
GAAP EPSFY 2025N/A$10.89–$12.14 New
Non-GAAP EPSFY 2025N/A$20.00–$21.20 New
GAAP Tax RateFY 2025N/A11.0%–12.5% New
Non-GAAP Tax RateFY 2025N/A15.0%–16.0% New
Non-GAAP Operating Margin (% of product sales)FY 2025N/A~46% New
Non-GAAP Cost of Sales (% of product sales)FY 2025N/A18%–19% New
Non-GAAP R&D ExpenseFY 2025N/AMid-teens YoY growth New
Non-GAAP SG&A (% of product sales)FY 2025N/ADown ~1–2 pts YoY New
OI&E (Non-GAAP)FY 2025N/A~$2.4B New
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025N/A~$2.3B New
Share RepurchasesFY 2025N/A≤$500M New
DividendQ4 2024Prior-year Q4$2.25 paid Dec 9; +6% YoY Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Prior-2)Q3 2024 (Prior-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
AI / TechnologyHighlighted AI across molecule design, enrollment, filings, commercial ops Continued digital/AI investment and India tech hub plans “AI is helping us deliver innovative medicines” and broader adoption across the company Increasing deployment
Cardiometabolic (Repatha, olpasiran)Repatha growth; access improving; olpasiran P3 ongoing Repatha category leadership; VESALIUS-CV ongoing; olpasiran outcomes program advancing Repatha >$2.2B FY sales; primary prevention potential; less price erosion expected Strengthening
Obesity (MariTide)Phase 2 topline planned late 2024; Phase 3 planning Phase 2 ongoing; Phase 3 broad program planning; T2D Phase 2 initiated Phase 2 data: ~20% wt loss at 52 wks; Phase 3 MARITIME initiation H1’25; ADA presentation confirmed Accelerating
Oncology (BiTEs)IMDELLTRA accelerated approval; BLINCYTO frontline consolidation IMDELLTRA Phase 3s; xaluritamig to Phase 3; AMG 193 advancing IMDELLTRA adoption rising; BLINCYTO pediatric DFS data; broad BiTE pipeline momentum Strong momentum
Rare DiseaseTEPEZZA access efforts; UPLIZNA IgG4-RD top-line positive TEPEZZA Japan approval; UPLIZNA MINT data; expansion underway TEPEZZA Japan launch ramp expected; UPLIZNA priority review and Orphan Drug Designation Expanding
BiosimilarsStable; launches planned (WEZLANA, BEKEMV) Pavblu (aflibercept) FDA approval; early retina specialist enthusiasm Pavblu launch traction; 2025 launches continue; strong franchise returns Growing
Macro/Policy (Part D)Monitoring impacts; CMS processes referenced CMS/Medicare dynamics; price declines on Enbrel Part D redesign viewed neutral overall; capped/smoothed OOP aids Repatha Neutral

Management Commentary

  • CEO strategic tone: “2024 capped another year of strong execution… our commercial teams grew the business across our 4 therapeutic areas and in each of our geographic regions… we exited the fourth quarter with 14 medicines each annualizing at over $1 billion” .
  • Commercial execution: “TEZSPIRE continues its strong trajectory of nearly $1 billion… our biosimilar products were $2.2 billion in 2024… Pavblu launch received very positive feedback… IMDELLTRA has treated ~2,000 patients since launch” .
  • R&D vision: “MariTide… consistent, predictable and sustained weight loss through 52 weeks… monthly or less frequent dosing… Phase III MARITIME program to initiate H1 2025” .
  • Financial priorities: “We expect 2025 total revenues $34.3–$35.7B and non-GAAP EPS $20–$21.20… non-GAAP operating margin roughly 46%… invest in late-stage pipeline, including MariTide and olpasiran” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Repatha vs. emerging oral PCSK9s: Management emphasized hard CV endpoints (secondary prevention) and VESALIUS-CV readout in H2 2025; access improvements position Repatha well despite potential oral entrants .
  • Part D redesign: Company views portfolio impact as “relatively neutral”; capped and smoothed OOP likely supports affordable chronic CV products like Repatha .
  • Horizon portfolio trajectory: KRYSTEXXA +23% (legacy-comparable), UPLIZNA +40%, TAVNEOS +111%, TEPEZZA +5%; international TEPEZZA expansion (Japan) and new UPLIZNA indications expected to drive growth .
  • Obesity pipeline: AMG 513 clinical hold noted; company confident on path forward and broader pipeline including oral/non-incretin agents; MariTide full Phase 2 data to be presented at ADA in June .
  • Denosumab biosimilar dynamics: Erosion cadence likely back-half-weighted; defense strategy leverages incumbency, account coverage, and learnings from biosimilar franchise .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q4 2024 were unavailable due to system limits during retrieval; as a result, we cannot definitively assess beat/miss versus Wall Street consensus at this time.
  • Investors should note internal comparisons: Revenue +11% YoY; non-GAAP EPS +13% YoY; GAAP EPS down 18% YoY on equity mark-to-market losses .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable; no estimates presented.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix-driven growth is broad and durable: double-digit growth in key brands (Repatha, TEZSPIRE, BLINCYTO, EVENITY) and early ramp of IMDELLTRA underpin 2025 revenue guidance despite legacy erosion and biosimilar headwinds .
  • Cardiometabolic catalysts: VESALIUS-CV (Repatha primary prevention) H2 2025 and olpasiran outcomes progression could expand addressable risk reduction beyond LDL-C lowering alone .
  • Obesity optionality: MariTide’s differentiated monthly or less frequent dosing and sustained 52-week weight loss support 2025 Phase 3 MARITIME initiation—an important medium-term value driver .
  • Oncology BiTE platform leverage: IMDELLTRA advancement into earlier lines and BLINCYTO’s pediatric DFS results reinforce platform’s potential to drive multi-indication growth .
  • Cash flow and balance sheet improving: Record Q4 FCF and $4.5B debt reduction in 2024 support investment capacity and dividend growth; 2025 FCF expected lower vs. 2024 due to timing (tax/working capital) .
  • Near-term modeling notes: Seasonal Q1 softness (Otezla/Enbrel), non-GAAP operating margin lowest in Q1 (~42%) then sequential expansion through 2025 .
  • Watch for regulatory and ex-U.S. expansion: TEPEZZA launches in Japan and additional geographies; UPLIZNA priority review (IgG4-RD) and Orphan Drug Designation for gMG .