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    AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)

    Q3 2024 Summary

    Published Jan 31, 2025, 4:49 PM UTC
    Initial Price$206.41July 1, 2024
    Final Price$222.19October 1, 2024
    Price Change$15.78
    % Change+7.64%
    • AvalonBay expects their suburban coastal business to continue outperforming in 2025 and plans to lean into external growth opportunities through development and potential increased transaction activity .
    • Improving bad debt levels are anticipated in 2025 in key regions like New York, New Jersey, Mid-Atlantic, Los Angeles, and Northern California, which could enhance net operating income .
    • Expansion into build-to-rent communities, leveraging existing capabilities and focusing on townhome products, represents a new growth opportunity .
    • Elevated bad debt levels in key markets like New York City, Mid-Atlantic, and Los Angeles continue to persist, running in the low 2% range, which could negatively impact the company's financial performance.
    • Potential increases in property taxes due to the expiration of tax abatement programs, notably the 421-a program in New York City, may boost overall expense growth and affect profitability.
    • Expansion into build-to-rent (BTR) communities involves uncertainties, as the company has dedicated resources but hasn't defined the pipeline, which could introduce execution risks in an unfamiliar market segment.
    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Same-store revenue growth
    Q3 2024
    3.5% full-year 2024 guidance
    5.52% YOY growth (from 642.093In Q3 2023 to 677.579In Q3 2024)
    Beat
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Sunbelt supply pressures on rent and occupancy

    Consistently mentioned as a challenge in all prior quarters (Q2, Q1, Q4), with high supply levels weighing on fundamentals and lease-ups.

    Meaningful pressure on rent and occupancy due to record deliveries, likely persisting into 2025 and possibly 2026.

    Recurring topic with similar sentiment; ongoing high supply remains a headwind.

    Elevated bad debt levels in key markets (NY, NJ, Mid-Atlantic, LA)

    Previously highlighted in Q4/Q1/Q2 as above-normal due to court delays, with slight improvements in some regions but no return to pre-pandemic levels yet.

    Still elevated (low 2% range in NY/NJ, LA slightly over 2%), with some performance variation by submarket.

    Continuing challenge; slight improvement but remains higher than normal.

    Shifting rent growth trends

    Previously indicated peak in summer months and seasonal moderation in Q4, with similar patterns in Q2, Q1, and Q4 2023.

    Rent growth was strong earlier in 2024 but decelerated heading into the slower season.

    Recurring discussion; consistent seasonal softening.

    Suburban coastal outperformance with limited new supply

    Repeated emphasis on limited new supply driving steady demand in coastal suburbs across Q2, Q1, and Q4.

    Continued outperformance due to suburban tilt (73% suburban) and lower deliveries vs. other regions.

    Consistent bullish view on suburban coastal markets.

    Development yields around 6% fueling external growth

    Previously discussed as a key growth lever, with yields around 6% to mid-6%, supporting accretive development in Q2, Q1, and Q4.

    Projects started at yields in the low- to mid-6% range, generating 100-150 bps spread over cap rates.

    Consistent driver of external growth; management remains confident in these yields.

    Record-low turnover tied to high rent vs. own cost differential

    Explicitly noted as record-low in Q1 (only 7% moved out to purchase), not highlighted as “record” in Q2/Q3/Q4, but still cited as unusually low.

    Turnover remains below historical norms; renting seen as more affordable than owning.

    Mention no longer framed as “record”; still low turnover due to rent vs. own gap.

    Narrowing cap rate spreads affecting acquisitions and dispositions

    Discussed in Q2 (cap rates ~5% for acquisitions vs. 5.1% for dispositions), indicating a narrowing spread that made buys more attractive.

    No specific mention of narrowing spreads in Q3, but transaction market remains thin.

    Previously noted in Q2; not referenced in current period.

    Rising operating expenses (taxes, insurance, legal costs)

    Previously observed mid-single to double-digit growth in taxes, insurance, and utilities, with legal/eviction costs also elevated (Q4).

    Insurance up 10%, moderate relief expected in 2025 as tax abatement expirations wane.

    Ongoing issue, but future moderation expected.

    Uncertainty around the AvalonConnect initiative

    Mentioned in Q4 2023 with no explicit uncertainties but no 2025 guidance provided; not discussed in Q2/Q1.

    Not mentioned as uncertain; focus on near-completion (~90% deployed), expecting revenue contribution in 2025.

    No active uncertainty discussed in latest quarter.

    Consumer financial pressures (inflation, student loan repayments) impacting rental demand

    Only noted in Q1 as pressuring some renters, with affordability trends favoring lower price point assets.

    No mention in Q3.

    Mention dropped after Q1, no updates in subsequent periods.

    1. 2025 Development Starts Outlook
      Q: What's in the pipeline for possible starts in '25?
      A: Matt Birenbaum indicated they may increase start activity in 2025 to around $1.5 billion from $1.05 billion this year. They plan to leverage their balance sheet and capabilities to capture a greater share of fewer starts. The pipeline includes projects across established and expansion regions, focusing on lower-density garden-style developments where economics are more favorable now.

    2. Expense Growth and Insurance Costs
      Q: Will expense growth be higher or lower in '25 vs. '24?
      A: Kevin O'Shea expects overall insurance costs to stabilize, projecting mid- to high single-digit increases in 2025, closer to normal levels. Sean Breslin added that they expect operating expense growth rates to ease in 2025 compared to 2024, as impacts from the 421-a tax program and AvalonConnect deployment diminish, reducing their contributions to expense growth.

    3. Supply Outlook
      Q: Where do you see delivery percentages over the next years?
      A: Sean Breslin stated they're expecting a reduction in deliveries in their established coastal regions in 2025, except for a slight uptick in New York City. Challenging development conditions, including higher construction and capital costs and decreased starts, suggest deliveries in coastal regions will continue to trend down over the next few years.

    4. Lease Growth Outlook
      Q: Can lease growth reaccelerate in November and December?
      A: Sean Breslin said that current asking rents are about 3% higher than last year. October blended rent change was 1.2%, expected to increase to the high 1% range in November and mid-2% in December. Improvement is anticipated mainly from new move-ins, supported by easier comps and higher asking rents.

    5. Bad Debt Normalization Timeline
      Q: When will bad debt return to pre-COVID levels?
      A: Sean Breslin expects that by the end of 2025, they will be making good progress but likely won't reach fully normalized bad debt levels until 2026. This is based on the volume of skips and evictions, with over 300 evictions in Q3 and about 1,300 accounts still needing to be processed.

    6. Development Yields in Sunbelt Projects
      Q: What's the yield on the 4 Sunbelt projects started?
      A: The 4 deals in expansion regions underwrite to around a 6% yield on today's rents, on the lower end of their range but well above their cost of capital. The Austin project, their first investment there, benefits from hard costs down double digits compared to 18 months ago, with lease-up expected in 2026 and little new competition anticipated.