Banco de Chile - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon, and welcome to Banco de Chile's Q4 2025 results conference call. If you need a copy of the financial management review, it is available on the company's website. Today with us, we have Mr. Rodrigo Aravena, Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer, Mr. Pablo Mejia, Head of Investor Relations, and Daniel Galarce, Head of Financial Control and Capital Management. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that this call is being recorded, and the information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the detailed notes in the company's press release regarding forward-looking statements. I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Rodrigo Aravena. Please go ahead.

Rodrigo Aravena (Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer)

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining our conference call. Today, we will present Banco de Chile results for the Q4 and the Full Year 2025. We are very proud of the bank's performance this year. Once again, Banco de Chile delivered market leadership and superior financial outcomes, reinforcing the strength and consistency of our business model. Starting with our financial results, Banco de Chile ranked number one in net income and return on average assets, number one in net fee income, and number one in net interest margin among peer banks. This result reflects the resilience of our core revenues, solid customer activity, and disciplined balanced management.

For the full year, we generated the highest net income in the local banking industry, amounting to CLP 1.2 trillion, which translated into a 2.2% return on average assets, significantly above the 1.3% achieved by the industry. We also maintain the largest market value among private banks in Chile of almost $20 billion, and we are leading the market in average trade volumes with over $25 million per day, demonstrating a strong investor confidence and liquidity in our stock. On capital, Banco de Chile remains the most highly capitalized bank, as demonstrated by a CET1 ratio of 14.5%, far above regulatory requirements and peers.

Also, our risk indicators continue to be among the strongest in the industry, supported by a 223% coverage ratio and CLP 651 billion in additional provisions, reflecting our sound risk management culture. From a cost perspective, we delivered a 3.5% real contraction in operating expenses, consistent with efficiency efforts that we have implemented over the past several years that have leveraged on a digital strategy that has benefited productivity across all business and operating processes. On the commercial side, Banco de Chile continues to stand out in customer experience, ranking first in service quality and top-of-mind awareness. We also reinforced our ecosystem with the launch of Banchile Pagos, our new acquiring and payment processing subsidiary, which strengthens our positioning in digital payments.

In addition, Banchile Mutual Fund remains the largest mutual fund manager in Chile, excluding pension funds, with a 22.5% market share in assets under management. Finally, our strong performance has been widely recognized, as shown by the awards on the right side of this slide, including recognition for best customer satisfaction, best corporate governance, best place to work, and best bank in Chile. In the remaining of this presentation, we will provide a detailed analysis of our quarterly and full year results of 2025. Before moving on, I'd like to share a brief analysis of the macroeconomic and business environment. Please go to slide number 4. Chilean economic growth continues posting above-trend figures, with a favorable shift in the composition of GDP, as shown in the chart on the left.

The economy expanded by 1.6% year-on-year in the Q3, resulting in an average expansion of 2.5% year-to-date. Although the annual growth rate decelerated, it's important to highlight the statistical effect of a higher comparison base from a year ago when the economy began to improve. However, the positive news comes from the composition of growth. Domestic demand increased significantly by expanding 5.8% year-on-year in the Q3, primarily driven by a strong recovery in gross investment, which rose 10% year-on-year, led by a 22% year-on-year increase in machinery and equipment. As shown in the upper right chart, the acceleration in local investment has offset the slowdown in exports, which remained unchanged in the quarter.

The strong contribution from domestic demand is relevant, not only because it supports positive GDP growth, but also because loan volumes are more closely linked to domestic demand than the overall economy. This could help narrow the gap between loan growth and GDP growth that we have observed in recent years.... It's reasonable to expect this trend to continue in the near term. Monthly GDP data shows that the commerce sector grew 6.7% year-on-year in the Q4, while capital good imports, which is a good leading indicator for investment activity, increased 19.6% year-on-year in the Q4, after rising 30.6% in the previous quarter. Looking ahead, several factors suggest that this positive momentum will persist throughout the year. One of them is improvement in consumer confidence, as shown in the bottom right chart.

Apart from the upward trend in the overall confidence, the sub-index that measures the 12-month economic output for the country rose to 59 points, surpassing the neutral level of 50 and reaching its highest value since the first half of 2018. Now, please go to slide number 5. Overall, we have seen a normalization of the main nominal figures: prices, interest rate, and the exchange rate. Regarding inflation, the 12-month CPI variation ended the year at 3.5%, down from 4.4% in September and 4.5% in 2024. The gradual convergence towards the central bank's 3% target was driven by lower inflation in the Q4 to just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, from 1.4% in the Q3, due to lower contribution from food, energy, and core goods.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items, also declined from 3.9% year-on-year in the Q3to 3.3% in the Q4. It's noteworthy that this decline occurred in an environment of economic recovery, particularly in domestic demand, suggesting improvements on the supply side, such as lower unit labor costs due to productivity gains. The appreciation of the Chilean peso against the US dollar also helped to ease inflationary pressures. Given this trend, the central bank continued normalizing monetary policy by reducing the policy rate by 25 basis points in December to 4.5%. According to the forward guidance provided in the December monetary policy release, further rate cuts are expected this year toward the estimated neutral rate of 4.25%. Updated macro forecast and guidance will be provided by the central bank in its March monetary policy report.

In this more favorable environment, the Chilean peso has strengthened against the dollar, narrowing the gap relative to the global dollar index, the DXY, as shown in the bottom chart. Key drivers include improved terms of trade, supported by higher copper prices and better expectation for the Chilean economy. I would now like to present our baseline scenario for this year. Please move to slide 6. We expect above-trend economic growth of around 2.4% in 2026. This expansion should be supported by strong domestic demand, driven by both investment and consumption. As confidence improves, monetary easing continues to take effect and copper price rise. Given better-than-expected global conditions and potential improvements in domestic factors, we acknowledge an upward bias to this GDP outlook. We also expect inflation to convert to a 3% target in 2026.

This forecast is based on the absence of further adjustment in regulated prices comparable to those seen in electricity tariffs in previous years, the impact of peso appreciation on tradable inflation, and lower unit labor costs resulting from improved productivity. In this scenario, we expect the central bank to reduce the policy rate to the neutral level of 4.25%. We can rule out an additional reduction to 4% if the peso appreciates further or if supply side pressures ease more than expected. As we mentioned in previous webcasts, these forecasts are subject to risk. The evolution of the global environment is particularly relevant for Chile, given our high degree of integration into world markets. Developments such as U.S. and Chinese GDP performance, as well as geopolitical tensions, remain critical to monitor.

On the domestic front, the geopolitical agenda will also be important, considering the recent government transition and the possibility of a more market-friendly policy framework. Before moving to our quarterly results, let's begin with a review of the industry landscape. Please go to slide 7. The banking industry continues to show resilience, even as inflation and interest rates move toward more normalized levels, as shown on the chart on the top left. Quarterly net income for the industry reached CLP 1.2 trillion with a 16% return on average equity, a moderate result from peak levels, but is still in a healthy and sustainable range.

Turning to asset quality, the top right chart shows that NPLs remain steady at 2.5%, with a coverage ratio at 1.4x. In terms of loans to GDP, this ratio reads 75% as of December 2025, extending the below trend behavior observed in recent years. Loan demand remains subdued in 2025, despite lower interest rates and signs of improving investment, particularly over the second half of the year. The bottom right chart further reinforces this. Since December 2019, total loans for the industry have contracted 2.6% in real terms, with consumer lending down around 17% and commercial lending down close to 11%, while mortgage, mortgage remains the only segment showing growth, rising 19% over the same period. Looking ahead, industry projections point to a rather reactivation in 2026.

According to our baseline scenario, as presented in the full Q2 2025 Financial Management Review report, total loans are expected to grow around 4.5% in nominal terms this year, with commercial lending returning to positive real growth, helped by improving business sentiment, a pickup in capital expenditure by companies, and a more supportive interest rate environment. Consumer and mortgage loans are expected to expand between 4.5% and 5% nominal, consistent with a moderate rebound in household consumption and a demand for housing. That is expected to keep on growing. In terms of profitability, it's likely to stabilize, as the industry net interest margin is expected to range from 3.5% and 3.7%, reflecting a yield curve that remains relatively flat and normalized inflation near to the central bank's 3% target.

Credit risk metrics should continue to improve gradually, with NPLs projected to decline toward 2.2%-2.3%, and the credit loss expense ratio should reach a range of 1.2%-1.3%. Overall, this trend suggests a more balanced operating environment as the sector transitions away from market-driven revenues and back toward fundamental base growth. Now, I turn the call over to Pablo to discuss Banco de Chile results for the quarter.

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Rodrigo. Let's turn to slide 9. Before discussing the financials, I would like to briefly review our business strategy and our core aspirations that guide Banco de Chile's actions. At the core of our strategy is our purpose: to contribute to the development of the country, its people, and companies. Everything we do across our business, our culture, and our digital transformation flows from that principle. Our model is built around three strategic priorities: placing the customer at the center of our decisions, operating with efficiency and productivity, and maintaining a strong commitment to sustainability and to Chile. Together, these pillars support our long-term ambition and delivering sustainable and profitable growth, supported by strong governance, disciplined risk management, and a collaborative culture.

In line with these aspirations, we have defined clear midterm targets, as shown on the right, that reflect both our competitive position and the standards that we set ourselves. We aim to remain top one in return on average capital among our relevant peers and maintain a cost-to-income ratio below 40%, which we have revised down from 42%, based on the solid improvements we have achieved in the recent years. We also seek to strengthen our market leadership by leading market shares in demand deposits and local currency, commercial loans, and consumer loans. From a customer standpoint, we are committed to delivering a Net Promoter Score of at least 73%, while on the reputational front, we aspire to rank among the top three institutions in Chile based on the Merco ranking.

Together, these goals anchor our execution of our strategic plan and reinforce our long-term vision to be the best bank for our customers, the best place to work for our people, and the best investment for our shareholders. Let me now move to slide 10, which highlights some of the most relevant business advances we achieved during 2025. This year, we launched our new acquiring and processing subsidiary, Banchile Pagos, which seeks to give us a stronger position in the payment ecosystem and allowing us to broaden our value proposition for companies ranging from SMEs to corporations. As discussed in previous calls, this initiative reflects our strategy of deepening digital capabilities and strengthening fee-based income streams. We also continue to expand and enhance our FAN digital accounts, which have met a sustained demand for our fully digital onboarding and transactional solutions from customers.

Total FAN accounts reached 2.4 million in December 2025, representing a 25% year-on-year increase, while balances per account rose by 32% over the last year. In parallel, we stepped up cross-selling initiatives for credit cards and microloans within the FAN base, driving higher engagement and further deepening relationships in this fast-growing segment. Likewise, we continue to advance their leadership ambitions in lending. Originations and consumer loans increased by 7.2% year-on-year, reflecting disciplined growth and improved origination capabilities across their distribution channels as we continue to benefit from increased originations through digital channels.... At the same time, our SME client base continued to expand, with current accounts growing around 12% year-on-year, reinforcing our role as a primary bank for a broader base of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Within this segment, non-government guaranteed installment loans for SMEs showed particularly strong momentum, growing 9.4% year-on-year, highlighting healthy underlying demand beyond support programs. In addition, our investment in AI-based virtual assistants enhanced both customer and employee experiences by speeding up response times, improving service availability, and boosting internal productivity. These tools have become an increasingly important part of our digital transformation journey. We also made significant progress in improving productivity across the organization, supported by the steady expansion of digital channels, higher levels of automation, and continued adoption of advanced technologies in our commercial and operational processes. Additionally, we managed to deepen operational synergies with our subsidiaries by centralizing functions, standardizing processes, and leveraging shared platforms to capture economies of scale and simplify our operating model.

The successful integration of our collection subsidiary, Socofin, represents a concrete example of this strategy and marks a major step towards a more centralized, efficient, and simplified operating model without compromising service quality or collections performance. We have also continued to strengthen talent and capability development across the organization. Throughout the year, we deepened our leadership and commercial training programs, broadened internal mobility opportunities to support career growth, and reinforced a positive, collaborative workplace climate. These efforts were complemented by competitive employee benefits and initiatives designed to retain and develop high-performing teams, ensuring that our people remain a core differentiator for Banco de Chile. On the sustainability front, we placed UF-denominated ESG bonds under our MTN program to finance social projects, reinforcing our commitment to sustainable development and further diversifying our funding sources.

This transaction builds on our long-standing approach to responsible finance and our strategy to support community-focused initiatives. And finally, in the second half of 2025, we presented the 4270 Project, a unique audio-visual initiative that documented Chile's 4,270 kilometers from north to south through a 90-day drone journey. Beyond its cultural value, the project reinforces our brand by linking Banco de Chile with national pride and long-term commitment to the country. Conceived as a gift to Chile, it made more than 500 royalty-free images available for educational use and has received international recognitions. Turning to slide 12, our results once again position us as the leader in the Chilean banking industry.

We closed the quarter with a net income of CLP 266 billion, and for the full year, we reached CLP 1.2 trillion, maintaining our historical leadership and profitability. Our return on average capital stood at 21.9% in 2025, above most of our peers and consistent with our long-term track record on this matter, which, coupled with an unparalleled capital position, the strongest among relevant peers. In terms of market share, we attained a 22% industry net income, comfortably ahead of all of our peers. This performance reflects the quality of our franchise, disciplined risk management, and the resilience of our core business. The chart on the bottom right shows the evolution of our return on average assets, which continues to lead the system with a clear gap over peers.

Even in a year marked by lower inflation, flattened yield curves, and softer loan demand, we maintained a superior result thanks to solid funding, sound credit quality, and efficient operating model. Moving to slide 13. Our operating revenues remained resilient despite the normalization in inflation and the decline in non-customer income. Total operating revenues reached CLP 749 billion in the quarter, with customer income increasing 4.4% year-over-year, reflecting the continued strength of our core business. Non-customer income, when compared to the Q4 of 2024, declined as expected, given the lower contribution from the inflation index net asset position and an interest rate environment marked by flat yield curves. Yet overall revenue levels remained solid, well-aligned with our forward-looking expectations.

For the full year, operating revenues totaled CLP 3 trillion, remaining relatively stable when compared to 2024. This performance reflects the expected normalization in non-customer income, mainly the lower contribution of our inflation index net position and decreased revenues from ALM. On a positive note, the underlying strength of our core business continued to make a difference. In fact, customer income increased by 4.2% for the full year, driven by solid retail loan-related revenues that benefited from improved lending spreads and higher fee generation across transactional services and mutual fund management. These dynamics underscore the resilience of our banking activities and the diversification of our revenue base.

Even in a year marked by softer inflation and an interest rate environment, was marked by both lower short-term interest rates due to the easing monetary process and a slight term spread as yield curves remained flat for most of the year. On the right side of the slide, you can see how our margins continued to differentiate us.... Our NIM remains the strongest among our peers, supported by our leadership in demand deposits and a diversified loan mix that continues to provide a structural advantage. A similar pattern is evident in our fees margin, where both the strength of our product offering and solid customer engagement allows us to maintain a stable and attractive contribution to operating income. Finally, our operating margin continues to position us ahead of peers.

Even though market conditions have normalized, our focus on efficiency, digital adoption, process optimization has allowed us to protect profitability and maintain a clear gap relative to the system. Together, these drivers underscore the strength of our strategy and our consistent ability to convert commercial activity into superior financial performance. Please turn to slide 14. Total loans rose 0.8% year-on-year, reaching CLP 39.2 trillion as of December 2025. This evolution reflects very different dynamics across mortgage, consumer, and commercial portfolios. First, residential mortgage loans were the main source of our loan book expansion by growing 5.3% during the period. This growth was supported by higher inflation, lower interest rates, a stable housing market, and recent public programs aimed at reactivating this industry.

Second, consumer loans increased 3.9% year-on-year, in line with the improvement seen in household consumption indicators during the year, and the gradual recovery in demand reported by the central bank in the Q4 of 2025 credit survey. Third, in contrast to individual loans, commercial loans fell 3%, consistent with the slower recovery in private investment and the more conservative behavior of large corporates. This decline was further amplified by loan prepayments, a pattern observed across the banking industry among corporate customers. In terms of the composition of our loan book and our main growth drivers, retail banking is the most relevant in both cases, representing 67.5% of total loans, growing 4.2% year-on-year.

Within retail, individuals grew 4.4% year-on-year, primarily driven by mortgage lending and a gradual pickup in installment loans during the second half of 2025. Meanwhile, SME expanded 3.3% during the same period, although an important note that excluding the amortization of FOGAPE loans, SME loans grew 9.4% year-on-year, up from the 8% growth rate posted in the Q3, reflecting a healthy and accelerating lending activity in this market, which is coupled with our continuous support for entrepreneurship. In wholesale banking, performance remains subdued. Total loans from this segment dropped 5.5% year-on-year, with corporate banking leading the drop with 8.8%, while core large companies posted a slight decrease of 0.5%.

This decline was mainly due to the maturity of low spread trade finance operations, lower credit demand from corporations, prepayments, and the appreciation of the Chilean peso, which reduced foreign currency exposures when converted to CLP. At the same time, sectors such as real estate and construction are showing initial signs of improvement, according to the central bank's credit surveys, although activity remains weak. In summary, our loan book is well-balanced and ready to benefit from a more positive macroeconomic outlook. The economy is showing firmer domestic demand, the labor market is stabilizing, inflation is heading back towards target, and interest rates are expected to continue normalizing throughout 2026. In addition, surveys already reflect early improvements in credit demand from households, SMEs, and sectors such as real estate and construction, coupled with increasing consumer confidence levels.

With these positive conditions emerging, Banco de Chile is in a strong position to capture new opportunities and continue delivering industry-leading results. Turning to slide 15, our funding structure continues to be one of the strongest competitive advantages. As you can see on the left, demand deposits represent 26.8% of our total liabilities, giving us a highly efficient funding base that remains structurally superior to the rest of the industry. This mix is further strengthened by time deposits and savings accounts, long-term debt issued, and equity, supporting both solid liquidity position and cost efficiency. Looking at the chart on the top right, our demand deposit to loan ratio stands at 37%. Once again, the highest among major peers.

This leadership is not only a source of lower funding costs, but also a reflection of our strong franchise, customer engagement, and the trust we've built across all of our business segments. More importantly, our demand deposit base is primarily composed of retail depositors, which provide us with enough funding stability in the medium term. At the bottom of this slide, you can see the evolution of our inflation index position in the banking book. As explained in our financial management review report, our net asset exposure to the U.S. reached CLP 8.8 trillion in December 2025, increasing relative to the Q3, mainly due to the growth in U.S. assets and the amortization of previously issued U.S.-denominated bonds.

This position is composed of both our structural inflation index gap, which serves as a long-term hedge for our shareholders' equity against inflation, and temporary directional positions managed by our treasury, depending on short-term market expectations. Based on revenues obtained from inflation variations over the last quarters, we believe our strategy has more than offset the risks involved. Nevertheless, we continue to closely assess the expected inflation path and stand ready to adjust our exposures if needed. Altogether, the strength of our funding base, combined with the disciplined and effective balance sheet management, allows us to sustain one of the lowest financing cost structures in the banking industry. Please turn to slide 16 to review our capital position.

As shown on the slide, Banco de Chile continues to maintain one of the strongest capital bases in the Chilean banking system, consistently operating at comfortable levels that are also well above peers. In December 2025, our CET1 ratio reached 14.5%, and our total capital ratio stood at 18.3%, both reflecting our robust capital generation capacity and disciplined balance sheet management. These levels place us comfortably above the fully loaded Basel III requirements applicable in Chile. We achieved this solid position after multiple years of sustained profitability and prudent but attractive dividends, which allowed us to preserve capital even in 2025, a year marked by lower inflation and more normalized revenues. Moreover, moderate loan growth in 2025 contributed to the expansion of capital. Finally, an important regulatory update occurred earlier this month.

On January 16, 2026, the CMF removed the Pillar II charge of 0.13% previously assigned to us, bringing this requirement down to zero. This decision reflects the regulator's positive assessment of our risk profile, governance, and capital management practices. In summary, our strong CET1 and total capital ratios position us exceptionally well to continue growing profitably, maintaining our leadership in the industry, and navigate the next stages of the economic cycle with confidence to grow our portfolio. Please turn to slide 17 to review our asset quality. Our loan portfolio once again reflects the consistency of our risk culture. In the Q4, expected credit losses were CLP 116 billion, bringing the full year figure to CLP 382 billion, which is 2.5% below the level we posted last year.

In terms of cost of risk, this indicator improved to 0.97%, slightly below 2024, underscoring the resilience of our loan portfolio and the effectiveness of our risk management practices. Breaking down the quarterly changes, the increase in provisions reflects both the normalization of asset quality indicators and a loan mix effect, given the stronger momentum in retail lending during the period. In the retail banking segment, expected credit losses rose CLP 15 billion year-on-year, largely due to the low levels of 30-89 day past due loans recorded in the Q4 of 2024, which created a low comparison base. This was intensified by a pickup in lending activity during the quarter, as reflected by consumer loans that increased 2% and credit card balances that grew 7.7% versus the third quarter.

By contrast, the wholesale banking segment recorded a CLP 6 billion reduction in provisions compared with last year, also driven by a comparison-based effect, but in the opposite direction. Specifically, the Q4 of 2024 included downgrades in certain real estate, construction, and transportation clients, while the reclassifications in 2025 were more moderate. For the full year, credit loss expenses decreased CLP 9.8 billion year-on-year. This was mainly driven by the wholesale banking segment, where better credit profiles in the real estate and construction sectors, together with a reduction in exposures to specific manufacturing clients, contributed to lower credit losses. The retail segment also recorded a modest year-on-year reduction.

These positive trends were partially offset by a CLP 19.6 billion loan volume and mix effect, entirely concentrated in the retail banking segment, as well as CLP 3.4 billion increase in impairment of financial assets. In terms of delinquencies, the chart on the upper right shows that the entire industry's NPLs remain above pre-pandemic levels. Nevertheless, we continue to have a lower past due loan ratio of 1.7%, maintaining a sizable gap versus our peers and the industry due to a sound origination standards and monitoring practices. Looking forward, as economic activity improves and inflation moderates, we expect the delinquency indicators to gradually converge towards our historical ranges. Nevertheless, as shown on the bottom left, our coverage remains one of the highest in the industry.

As of December, total provisions reached CLP 1.5 trillion, including both specific allowances and additional provisions, resulting in a coverage ratio of 223%. This robust buffer provides meaningful protection against potential stress scenarios and once again differentiates our credit risk position from peers. In summary, despite a credit cycle that remains above long-term averages for the system, our asset quality metrics, strong provisioning levels, and disciplined risk management practices continue to position Banco de Chile with one of the most resilient profiles in the industry. Please turn to slide 18. Our structural cost discipline is supporting important efficiency gains, as you can see on this slide. Total operating expenses reached CLP 293 billion in the Q4 of 2025, down from 3.5% and 6.7% in nominal and real terms, respectively, year-on-year.

The decline, as shown on the chart on the top right, was led by personnel expenses, decreasing 7% year-on-year in nominal terms in the Q4 of 2025, mainly due to lower severance payments versus Q4 2024, and slightly higher growth in salaries as headcount decreased 4% year-on-year as a result of the adoption of our sales and service model. Depreciation, amortization, and other expenses dropped 12% year-on-year. This was partially offset by administration expenses that rose 5.1% year-on-year, mainly from marketing and technology-related expenses. For the full year, operating expenses were essentially flat at CLP 1.1 trillion, and in real terms, decreased 3.5% year-on-year.

Specifically, personnel expenses fell 2.1% year-on-year, more than offsetting a 3.1% year-on-year increase in administrative expenses, which remained below inflation, while depreciation, amortization, and other expenses also trended lower in 2025 versus the prior year. These positive trends in our cost base reflect a solid cost control culture we have developed over the last five years. The benefits we have obtained from successful optimization programs, including improved service and operating models, which have leveraged on targeted IT capital expenditures that we are bearing fruit in terms of increased efficiency and productivity. As a result, our efficiency, measured as total operating expenses to income, reached 37.4% for 2025, comparing well to our history, peers, and the industry.

Looking ahead, our focus is unchanged: Maintain strict cost control while investing in capabilities that matter, digital, data, and distribution, so we can continue to post excellent productivity and efficiency levels. For 2026, our baseline guidance forecast efficiency around 39% under normalized revenue conditions. Please turn to slide 19. Before taking your questions, I'd like to highlight a few key points from this presentation. Chile continues to demonstrate solid and resilient macroeconomic fundamentals, supported by credible institutions, a sound financial system, and a stable policy framework. Despite a complex global environment, Chile remains well-positioned relative to its peers and continues to offer a favorable environment for long-term investment. For 2026, we expect above-trend GDP growth of around 2.4%, driven by stronger contribution from domestic demand, particularly investment in machinery equipment.

Inflation and interest rates are also expected to converge to the long-term levels at 3% and 4.25%, respectively. Turning to Banco de Chile, I would like to reinforce our ability to combine strong earnings with robust capital levels. As shown on the left, we delivered CLP 1.2 trillion in net income with a CET1 ratio of 14.5% and a return on average assets of 2.2%. Finally, regarding our full-year 2026 guidance, we expect to return on average capital in the range of 19%-21%, efficiency around 39%, and cost of risk between 1.1% and 1.2%.

We remain confident in our ability to continue positioning Banco de Chile as the most profitable investment in the Chilean banking industry over the long term, supported by a solid strategy, the best customer base, superior asset quality, a sound risk culture, and the strongest capital position among peers that will enable us to take advantage of a more dynamic lending environment as the Chilean economy gains momentum. Thank you, and if you have any questions, we'd be happy to answer them.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much. We'll now be moving to the Q&A part of the call. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star two on your phone and wait to be prompted. That is star two if you're connected from the phone. If you're connected from the web, you can also ask a voice question. We'll give it a few moments for the questions to come in. Okay, so our first question is from Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Ernesto Gabilondo (Director LatAm Financials)

Thank you. Hi, good morning, Rodrigo, Pablo, and Daniel, and thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. My first question will be on the economic and political outlook. Just wondering, what have you been hearing in terms of reducing the statutory tax rate and reducing the credit card limit on credit cards? I have seen other banks with a more cautious view on the timing of the approval of both topics, so I just want to hear your view. My second question is on your loan growth expectations. I wonder if you can break down your loan growth expectations per segment. And my last question is on your capital allocation. So, shareholders approved a dividend payout ratio of 85%, but Banco de Chile continues to have a very high common equity tier one ratio.

So, just wondering how you're seeing your capital allocation in the next years, and if you're expecting to take advantage of your strong balance sheet, to take market share, in the second half or next years. Thank you.

Rodrigo Aravena (Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer)

Hi, Ernesto. Thank you very much for the question. I'm Rodrigo Aravena. In terms of the economic and the political outlook that we have, I think that there are a couple of things that is important to highlight here. First of all, we have for this year an official outlook for the economy, for the GDP of 2.4%. However, we are aware about the potential upside risks in this estimate because we have seen very positive signs-

from the domestic demand, and also, in terms of the business confidence, the consumer confidence, for example, we have seen a very important positive trend. In fact, today we have, for example, the highest consumer confidence, the expectation for the next 12, 12 months from the households is the highest since 2018. Additionally, we have very good signals from the capital imports, anticipated a good trend for investment.

So hence at that, I think that it's very important to mention that even though we will likely have a similar economic growth this year compared to the number that we have in 2025 and 2024, I think that the good news is the composition of growth, because the main driver of the activity this year will come from the domestic demand. In terms of the political agenda, political outlook, the new government will take office March eleventh. Only at that time, we will know the main priorities, the main agenda.

However, there's an important consensus in Chile, which is part of the agenda of the new government as well, in terms of, for example, to propose, tax reform by reducing the corporate tax rate from the current 27% to, we have to wait the announcement of the government, but there's a consensus that the rate could fall towards, I don't know, 23%, something like that. It could be a positive news in terms of the investment, in terms of economic growth in the future. But again, we have to see, what will be the priority for the new government, and we will have information on that only after, March eleven.

But overall, today we have a more positive view on the economy, especially from the domestic demand, but we have to take into consideration as well that the recent strengthening of the Chilean peso could review the inflationary pressures this year. We could have some potential impact in terms of interest rates, so we still have some mixed trends that we have to pay special attention to. Pablo?

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations)

Okay. In terms of interest rate cuts and discussions, it's still very early, but obviously similar to what happened in the past, the reduction leaves vulnerable or the mass market, consumer markets, unbanked, and is precisely what occurred after those regulations that were implemented. This obviously could help return to the segment for the financial institutions. So this would be a positive move, but it's very early in the discussions to see if this will actually come through. In terms of loan growth by segment, what we're seeing for next year in the industry, is loan growth growing around the 4.5% level for the industry.

So we think that one of the most relevant areas that we should see a return to growth is in the corporate banking. So in corporate banking, which has been very weak over the last years, we believe that this, we should start to see an improvement. And in terms of us, what we're looking at growing is slightly well above those levels. Focusing in our key segments, we're seeing somewhere around the 7% nominal level of growth. Obviously, it'll depend on the evolution of changes or improvements in terms of politics. We're seeing a recovery also in consumer loans, which is very important for us, somewhere in the levels of around 6%, these numbers are nominal.

Mortgage loans around the 5, and commercial loans, we should see a pickup that's more around the 8%, which is the area that has had the highest difficulties in the over the last 5 years, where we've seen an important decrease, with a special focus in those smaller and medium-sized businesses, SMEs. The third question was the capital, so I'll pass the call to Daniel Galarce.

Daniel Galarce (Head of Financial Control and Capital Management)

Hi, this is Daniel. As we have mentioned in the past, we have favorable gaps in terms of capital raises today, of course, and basically, we want to use them in the future as long as the economy gains some momentum. As we mentioned in our quarterly report also, we want to save some and retake some market share in the future, particularly in 2026. So we want to grow above the industry in terms of loans. In the long run, and also as we have mentioned in previous calls, we believe that we should hover, we should float in capital ratios at least 1% above the regulatory limits.

That means that probably we can float even over that, that margin, over than, 1% or something like that. But, in the long run, the important thing is that we want to use the capital in order to take more growth and faster growth than the rest of things.

Ernesto Gabilondo (Director LatAm Financials)

Super helpful. Thank you very much, Rodrigo, Pablo, and Daniel.

Daniel Galarce (Head of Financial Control and Capital Management)

You're welcome.

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you.

Rodrigo Aravena (Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer)

Thanks.

Daniel Galarce (Head of Financial Control and Capital Management)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much.

.Our next question is from Andres Soto, from Santander. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Andres Soto (Executive Director of LatAm Equity Research)

Good morning, everybody. Thank you for the presentation. I have a couple of questions. The first one is regarding your loan growth expectations. I would like to understand two aspects. The first one is, how do you expect this loan growth to happen? It is going to be more tilted to the second half of the year, or you are going to see this pick up from the beginning? This considering that at the end of 2025, we actually saw a deceleration in loan growth for all the Chilean banks, but particularly for Banco de Chile. That would be my first question.

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations)

Hi, Andres. Yeah, so for loan growth expectations, it should probably be more in the second half of the year, in line with activity and changes that can occur. You have to remember that in Chile, the government takes office on March eleventh, so all changes and benefits that could occur in the short term would change after that date as well. So what we've seen in the last quarter of this year was low demand from customers, some from corporate customers, some loan repayments from larger corporate customers, and foreign trade loans that came due that weren't retaken.

So, the Q4 was a little bit weaker in commercial loans, so we should expect that in the second half of the year, we should start to see a larger pickup in terms of loans and in the medium term, we should see the possible benefits more in coming years. Because our expectations for the industry, remember, is 4.5% nominal growth, which is under one times kind of the loans elasticity of Chile, because we're expecting Chile to grow around the 2.5% plus inflation of 3%, we're below the one times.

Andres Soto (Executive Director of LatAm Equity Research)

Understood. Thank you, Pablo. And so, thinking about 2027, can we assume that you know there could be additional acceleration in lending based on this regulatory agenda that is being proposed by the new government? Or how do you see the medium-term expectations in terms of Chile GDP and lending activity?

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations)

If we look in the past, Chile always grew 2x. Probably that's more challenging to achieve, but the medium-term goal or reasonable level is around 1.4-1.5x, and there could be times that there's higher levels of growth for a shorter period of time. So in 2027 and beyond, we should see better growth in the industry, taking back that level of growth that was lost during the last four years, especially in commercial loans and consumer loans.

Yeah, um-

Rodrigo.

Rodrigo Aravena (Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer)

Yes, sorry. Hi, Andrés. I think that it's also important to keep in mind that it's gonna depend on the type of measure that the new government will announce. For example, there is an important consensus about the rule to reduce taxes, but the question is about the timeline of this potential reduction in taxes. We have to remember that there is not an important majority in both chambers in the government, so that's why there's gonna be some negotiation between different parties, coalitions, et cetera.

So, that's why, I think that even though, we are aware about the potential upward bias in our forecast for both for domestic demand, for loan growth, for the GDP, I think that, it's very important to analyze the specific details of the proposal, of the new government, especially in terms of the timeline of the potential reduction taxes, the main area where the government will try to review the red tape, the bureaucracy, for investment, et cetera. So I think that the detail of the new proposal, and the reform will be very important in terms of the potential timing of recovery of loans.

Andres Soto (Executive Director of LatAm Equity Research)

Perfect. Thank you, Rodrigo. My second question is on your guidance. You said 39% efficiency ratio, and I would like to understand better what drives this view, considering your loan growth expectations and your NIM. I get a lower margin, sorry, a lower efficiency ratio. So I wanted to clarify, what are you seeing in terms of fee income, expense growth, to see if this could be the reason why you assume this level of efficiency?

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations)

Well, our three-year project that was implemented, and we've seen significant improvements in terms of costs. It has been mostly implemented. We've seen improvements in efficiencies and productivities across the bank, reduction in the branch network, optimizing the structure of Banco de Chile, and that's permitted us over the last couple of years to have very low expense growth. For 2026, we should think of more in line with inflation expense growth, due to last year's inflation affecting basically all of our numbers, on the operating expenses, as well as some slightly higher depreciation levels because of technology investments, et cetera. In terms of operating income, as we mentioned, 4.5% NIM.

And fees, we should think, as we've said in other calls, that our main driver is customers. So we should be having a good level of fee growth, thanks to a rise in customers, which is generally around the 7%. One third is coming from fund accounts of that number. Cross-selling, and particularly this year, we should have more growth related to transactional revenues, as well as some of our subsidiaries, and we'll begin to have income from Banchile Pagos, our acquiring business. So it's reasonable to think of a level of around high single digits, low double digits for fee growth.

So it should be similar to what we had in the prior year, but the composition of that number will be different, because we expect more moderate growth in terms of AUM and mutual fund management, which we've had a very strong growth over the last few years.

Andres Soto (Executive Director of LatAm Equity Research)

Thank you, Pablo. So just to summarize, you are seeing expense growth in line with inflation, and fee income above lending growth. Is that correct?

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations)

Expense growth in line, slightly above inflation, and expense growth and fees similar to 2000 and the prior year.

Andres Soto (Executive Director of LatAm Equity Research)

Sounds good. Thank you very much.

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations)

You have to also take into consideration, in operating expenses, we have Banchile Pagos, and in fees, we have Banchile Pagos as well. And the rest is inflation.

Andres Soto (Executive Director of LatAm Equity Research)

Correct. Thank you, Pablo.

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations)

You're welcome.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Lindsey Shema, from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Lindsey Shema (Equity Research Associate)

Hi, Rodrigo, Pablo, Daniel. Thank you for taking my question. First, maybe just to follow up on Banchile Pagos, do you have any initial updates on how operations have been going? And then how do you see the overall market and the opportunity set there, and how much it contribute to earnings in the future? And then my second question is just clarifying if the upside risks to local GDP growth are factored into your loan growth estimates and your overall estimates, or if there's some upside risk there. Thank you.

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations)

Hi. So for Banchile Pagos, it's been going very well. We started this, as you know, in the Q4 of 2025. Today, we have a level of around 4% of customers that are SMEs, or equivalent to the size of our SME book. We have about 4% that are Banchile Pagos customers. It's been growing well. We have a customer base that's. We're focusing this target of about 160,000 SMEs, and if we look at the smaller, like, mid-cap companies, that number goes up to 200,000. So we have interesting level of customer base that we're cross-selling with our account managers to Banchile Pagos. This number, this new subsidiary will be adding important value to... It's one of the drivers for fee growth.

It's also one of the drivers for a little bit more expenses, but it's coming out positive, the evolution of Banchile Pagos overall. So we're very happy with the level of growth that this product has had.

Rodrigo Aravena (Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer)

Okay. Hi, thanks for the question. This is Rodrigo Aravena. As you mentioned, we have an upgrade in terms of our GDP forecast, which is mainly based on five key drivers. First of all, we have better corporate price, which is important for the country. You know that the mining sector is important for us, represents nearly 15% of the GDP, so the improvement of the terms of trade is positive for us. Second, we have seen an important improvement in consumer confidence. Third, a similar trend for the business confidence. Fourth, we have seen an important pick-up in capital goods imports, which potentially anticipate a better dynamism on total investment.

And also there are positive expectations regarding the measures that can be taken and announced by the new government, especially in terms of the reduction of red tape, bureaucracy, and also the potential room to reduce the corporate tax rate in the future. Of course, that when we have a better environment for the GDP, it's reasonable to expect a greater dynamism in loans. However, we have to consider that there is a delay between the GDP cycle and the loan cycle. I mean, what I'm trying to say is that when you have an acceleration activity in some quarter, not necessarily we have a sharp acceleration in loans in the same period of time.

So that's why I would say that we have an upward risk for the GDP, for the domestic demand this year, that is not necessarily, we have the same upward risk for total loans this year. We can rule out that part of the recovery loans will happen during the next year.

Lindsey Shema (Equity Research Associate)

Okay, great. That made perfect sense. Thank you.

Rodrigo Aravena (Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer)

Okay, thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much. Our next question is from Daniel Mora from Credicorp Capital. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Daniel Mora (Equity Research Associate)

Hi, good morning, Rodrigo, Pablo, Daniel. Thank you for the presentation. I just have one question. You mentioned that you want to be the most profitable bank in Chile in terms of return on average capital. The new guidance of 19-21% seems conservative if we think about the ROE expectation of a key competitor. So I would like to understand if this will be the long-term return on average capital, figure, or do you expect, and how do you expect to expand profitability? Thank you so much.

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations)

Hi, Daniel. Well, thank you for your question. I think it's important to consider if we look at different metrics, and similar levels of capital, we have a very attractive level of returns. If we look at ROA, we're by far the leader. Today, we have... It's true, we have a CET1 ratio that's higher than our peers, and that generates a lower return on average capital, but our aspiration is to be number one. So in our guidance for this year, is 19%-21%. Maybe there's some, if things change within Chile, those numbers can evolve, obviously. But in the medium term, the idea is to use this capital in organic growth, inorganic growth, we need to use this effectively, our capital.

So this would generate better returns for us, and we should begin to see a return in return on average capital, similar to what we see in return on average assets, which we should return to being leaders as we deploy this additional capital in growth or how we use this to become more sustainable.

Daniel Mora (Equity Research Associate)

Perfect. Thank you. And do you have a long-term figure already incorporating the use of the excess capital that you currently have?

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations)

No, we don't have a long-term figure, but as Daniel Galarce has mentioned, that it's reasonable to see banks should have a reasonable level of capital in order to grow and use during a normal course of business, which generally is in the levels of 1.5% above the regulatory limits.

Daniel Mora (Equity Research Associate)

Perfect. Thank you so much. Very clear, Pablo. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Neha Agarwala from HSBC. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Neha Agarwala (SVP)

Hi, thank you for taking my question, Rodrigo, Pablo. Quick one on the cost of risk and asset quality. How do you see that evolve going forward? Your cost of risk is slightly higher than what you had for 2025. It seems like it's mostly driven by the loan growth that you're expecting. But is there any other moving factors, if you could elaborate on that? And when I look at your guidance and the growth assumptions, the ROE 19-21 seems like we could have a bit of upside risk to that number. Any thoughts that you can share on that?

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations)

Hi, Neha. Thanks for the questions. In terms of cost of risk, it's true the our number of 1.1-1.2 is higher than what we've had over the required, over the past few years. That goes in line with the levels that we think are more in line with our long-term levels of cost of risk and asset quality. We should see a year that's more, we should see more growth this year, especially a change in mix that is more focused in SMEs, more focused in consumer loans. So the net position should be more profitability in terms of net interest margins, cost of risk in the long term, as this evolves to more normalized levels.

Where we've been has been very low levels of cost of risk, which don't make sense for the cycle that we're in. We're in a cycle of GDP that's growing around above 2%, but unemployment rates are quite high for this level, and coming out of a very high level of inflation that affected household income, and that's affected payment behavior. So we think it's reasonable to consider a cost of risk, which should move slowly, trend return to the levels of our long term of 1.1-1.2. But obviously, there's positive scenarios in that number. If the economy improves better than expected, unemployment comes down, real wages increase more, that number could be better. So if you can argue, you can argue both ways.

In terms of ROE, it's similar to that. What's driving these numbers of ROE of 19%-21%, and part is the cost of risk and part is operating expenses. So, as improvements, if there's surprises in the year, there can be a positive effect on the bottom line as well. And you could also have the negative effect if there's surprises in the year of lower inflation, more unemployment, you can have the opposite. But, considering everything that economists are looking at, we think it's reasonable the levels of cost of risk today that we should have and the levels of return on average capital.

Neha Agarwala (SVP)

Perfect. Very clear. Thank you so much, Pablo.

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations)

Welcome.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We would like to thank everyone for the participation today. I will now hand it to the Banco de Chile team for the concluding remarks.

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations)

Thanks for taking the time to listen to our call, and, yeah, and we look forward to speaking with you in the next quarter's results. Bye.

Operator (participant)

We'll now be closing all the lines. Thank you, and have a nice day.