Bunge Global - Q4 2025
February 4, 2026
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mark Haden. Please go ahead.
Mark Haden (Head of Investor Relations)
Great. Thank you, and thank you for joining us this morning for our fourth quarter earnings call. Before we get started, I want to let you know that we have slides to accompany our discussion. These can be found at the Investor Center on our website at bunge.com, under Events and Presentations. Reconciliations of our non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure are posted on our website as well. I'd like to direct you to slide 2 and remind you that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements that reflect Bunge's current view with respect to future events, financial performance, and industry conditions. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Bunge has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in this presentation. We encourage you to review these factors.
On the call this morning are Greg Heckman, Bunge's Chief Executive Officer, and John Neppl, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Greg.
Greg Heckman (CEO)
Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. I want to start this morning by thanking the team and recognizing their extraordinary work around the world, both throughout 2025 and as we move into 2026. This past year was one of execution, investment, and integration, all in a market environment that demanded agility and discipline. In 2025, we reached a major milestone with the completion of our Viterra combination. The integration work our teams accomplished has been exceptional, and we remain highly engaged and excited about the progress we're continuing to make together. Building on a foundation of cultures that were already aligned on doing what is right for customers, this combination brings both organizations together within our proven end-to-end value chain operating model, removing complexity and strengthening shared goals.
As a result, we've increased connectivity and the flow of information across our combined organization, a crucial component to how we operate. As I've said before, it's our competitive advantage to have great people across the organization having the same information at the same time and working toward unified objectives. This alignment is already delivering results. We are unlocking synergies in origination, merchandising, processing, and distribution, optimizing flows between origin and destination, and capturing margin through improved logistics and better coordination. For example, previously, Viterra's origination activities in most regions would have been managed purely through a merchandising lens, leveraging a nimble platform built to operate on short lead times. Today, people managing the same network of elevators are now making decisions with a more complete picture of our global platform, taking an integrated view that balances speed with longer-term considerations.
This not only allows us to keep our processing and refining plants running at high capacities, but also results in more profitable outcomes for both farmers and consumers. We have capabilities today that we didn't have before, and we're just getting started. These types of benefits are durable and will compound over time. We will provide more details on synergy capture, capital allocation priorities, and our combined long-term outlook at our Investor Day on March 10th. And while we've been integrating Viterra, we've also been working to advance our large greenfield projects, navigating trade flows, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical volatility, all while staying focused on connecting farmers to end market demand across food, feed, and fuel. Shifting to our operating performance, our fourth quarter reflected higher results in all our segments, driven by strong execution and our expanded footprint and capabilities. John will go into more details in a moment.
Externally, the environment remains complex, with limited forward visibility. Geopolitical tensions, evolving trade flows, and uncertainty around biofuel policy, and that's particularly in the U.S., continue to influence farmer and consumer behavior. Based on what we can see today in the current environment and forward curves, we expect full year 2026 adjusted EPS in the range of $7.50-$8. With that, I'll turn it over to John for more details on our financials and outlook.
John Neppl (CFO)
Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to the earnings highlights on slide 5. Our reported fourth quarter earnings per share was $0.49, compared to $4.36 in the fourth quarter of 2024. Our reported results included an unfavorable mark-to-market timing difference of $0.55 per share and an unfavorable impact of $0.95, primarily from notable items related to the settlement of our U.S. defined benefit pension plan, Viterra transaction integration cost, and an impairment of a long-term investment. Prior year results included a net positive impact of $0.98 from notable items, primarily related to the gain on the sale of our sugar and bioenergy joint venture, partially offset by Viterra transaction integration costs.
Adjusted EPS was $1.99 in the fourth quarter, which included approximately $50 million of net tax benefits versus $2.13 in the prior year. Adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes, or EBIT, was $756 million in the quarter, versus $546 million last year, with all segments showing higher year-over-year results. In the soybean processing and refining segment, slightly higher results were primarily driven by South America, reflecting higher processing and refining results in Argentina and Brazil. In the destination value chain, lower processing results in Europe and origination in the Americas were partially offset by improved results in Asia. Results in North America were lower in both processing and refining. Higher process volumes were largely attributed to the company's expanded production capacity in Argentina. Higher merchandise volumes reflected the company's expanded soybean origination footprint.
In the soft seed processing and refining segment, higher results were primarily driven by better average processing margins and the addition of Viterra's soft seed assets and capabilities. In North America, higher results, higher processing results were partially offset by lower results in refining. In Europe, results were higher in processing and biodiesel, but lower in refining. In Argentina, results were higher in processing and modestly higher in refining. Results in global soft seeds and global oils merchandising activities also increased, reflecting strong execution. Higher soft seed process volumes primarily reflected the company's increased production capacity in Argentina, Canada, and Europe. Higher merchandise volumes were driven by the company's expanded soft seeds origination footprint. For other oilseeds processing and refining segment, improved results reflected stronger specialty oils performance in Asia and North America, along with higher global oils merchandising activity.
Results in Europe were in line with the prior year. In the grain merchandising and milling segment, higher results were primarily driven by global wheat and barley, as well as wheat milling, partially offset by lower results in global corn and ocean freight. Higher volumes were primarily reflected the company's expanded grain handling footprint and capabilities, along with large global grain crops. Prior year results included corn milling, which was divested in the second quarter of 2025. The increase in corporate expenses was primarily driven by the addition of Viterra. Higher other results primarily reflected our captive insurance program, partially offset by $10 million of prior year income from the sugar and bioenergy joint venture that was divested in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Net interest expense of $176 million was up in the quarter compared to last year, reflecting the addition of Viterra, partially offset by lower average net interest rates. Let's turn to slide 6, where you can see our adjusted EBITDA, EPS and EBIT trends over the past five years. The recent performance trends reflect less volatility due to more balanced global supply and demand environment, particularly in grains, and the impact of ongoing trade and biofuel uncertainty that has created a very spot transactional market environment. Slide 7 details our capital allocation. For the full year, we've generated just over $1.7 billion of adjusted funds from operations. After allocating $485 million to sustaining CapEx, which includes maintenance, environmental, health, and safety, we had approximately $1.25 billion of discretionary cash flow available.
We paid $459 million in dividends and invested approximately $1.2 billion in growth and productivity-related CapEx. We received approximately $1.2 billion of cash proceeds from the sale of a variety of assets and businesses, and we also repurchased 6.7 million Bunge shares for $551 million. This resulted in $1,173 million of retained cash flow. Moving to slide 8. At year-end, net debt, excluding readily marketable inventories, or RMI, was approximately $700 million. The recent change versus history reflects the impact of the acquisition debt assumed and issued related to Viterra. Our adjusted leverage ratio, which reflects our adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA, was 1.9 times at the end of the fourth quarter. Slide 9 highlights our liquidity position, which remains strong.
At year-end, we had committed credit facilities of approximately $9.7 billion, of which approximately $9 billion was unused and available, providing ample liquidity to manage the ongoing capital needs of our larger combined company. Please turn to slide 10. For the trailing twelve months, adjusted ROIC was 8.1%, and ROIC was 6.9%. Adjusting for construction and progress on our large multiyear projects and excess cash on our balance sheet, our adjusted ROIC would increase to 9.3%, and ROIC to 7.5%.
As a reminder from last quarter, we decreased both our weighted average cost of capital and adjusted weighted average cost of capital from 7% and 7.7% respectively, to 6% and 6.7% respectively, reflecting the recent upgrade in our credit rating, change in capital structure of the combined company and lower interest rate environment. Importantly, we're not lowering our long-term investment return expectations. Moving to slide 11. For the year, we produced discretionary cash flow of approximately $1.25 billion, similar to the prior year, and a cash flow yield or yield or cash return on equity of 9.4% compared to our cost of equity of 7.2%. Please turn to slide 12 in our 2026 outlook.
Taking into account the current margin and macro environment of forward curves, we forecast full year 2026 Adjusted EPS in the range of $7.50-$8. As Greg mentioned in his remarks, the environment remains complex, with limited forward visibility, particularly related to U.S. biofuel policy. As a result, we believe the curves do not properly reflect what opportunities should develop during the year once the policy is finalized. Additionally, we expect the following for 2026: adjusted annual effective tax rate in the range of 23%-27%, net interest expense in the range of $575 million-$625 million, capital expenditures in the range of $1.5 billion-$1.7 billion, and depreciation amortization of approximately $975 million.
With that, I'll turn things back over to Greg for some closing comments.
Greg Heckman (CEO)
Thanks, John. So before we go to Q&A, I want to just offer a few thoughts. Through our disciplined execution, portfolio optimization, and strategic investment, we've reshaped this company into a more agile, diversified, and resilient Bunge. We've overcome multiple obstacles, including geopolitical shifts that continue to reshape global trade flows. Yet through all of that, our team has executed, adapted, and delivered. Those experiences have only strengthened our confidence and our ability to succeed going forward. With the addition of Viterra, we now have greater reach across origins and destinations, deeper insight into global flows, and more capability and optionality to serve customers and manage risk. We're still on a transformation journey, and continuous improvement is part of who we are. At the same time, our Bunge team is operating from a position of greater strength than at any point in our history.
We've never been in a better position, we've never been more needed, and we've never been more prepared, thanks to our people and the global infrastructure we operate. We look forward to sharing more on the opportunities ahead of us at our Investor Day on March 10th. In the meantime, I'll close by saying, as we look ahead, I'm confident the capabilities that we've built will allow us to deliver value in any environment while continuing to connect farmers to the markets, to sustain communities, and feed the world. With that, we'll turn to Q&A.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Tom Palmer with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Tom Palmer (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you, and good morning, Greg and John. I know that your guidance does not take a view on how industry conditions might change, but one, I wonder to what extent you think the RVO might be reflected in the curve today? And then, when we see soybean crush margins moving higher over the past month or so, has this had much impact on the margins that you are able to capture in your crush operations up to this point? Thanks.
Greg Heckman (CEO)
Sure. I'll start on that, John. So yeah, you're correct. Our outlook, we did not put any assumptions about what the RVO would do to the curves or the profitability beyond what the curves are already showing. Now, as you called out, we've definitely seen the US curves, especially in the second half, right, improve a little bit. We think those are probably driven by RVO tailwind expectations. Now, that being said, there's not much business done beyond Q1 right now. That we're still pretty open on the balance of the year.
Then, the other feature, I think you've got pretty high oil stocks in the U.S. until we, you know, see that demand come on, which is a little different than the rest of the world, where the oil S&Ds are pretty balanced. And, you know, that could get cleaned up, you know, pretty quickly, should we get the RVO enacted. But, you know, the actual details are important, and the timing is important. So, you know, we all wait, but to stay consistent, we just gave the forecast on what we can see today and what the curves are today.
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah, maybe just to add, Tom, that on top, you know, oil's certainly been up and down, you know, based on market expectations, but we've seen good, steady demand for soybean meal. And I think that's a global phenomenon, but in the U.S. as well, soybean meal demand's been strong. So that's at least, you know, helping on the crush, from a crush perspective.
Tom Palmer (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Understood. Thank you. I had a question just on the cadence for the year. I think historically, earnings have been a bit more weighted to the second half of the year than the first half, but the composition of the business has obviously changed quite a bit here. So any thoughts on both kind of the earnings cadence as we think about this year, and to what extent that might be reflective of what normal seasonality might look like in the business as we look forward? Thank you.
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah, Tom, I think how we're looking at this year, and I don't know that this is necessarily gonna be indicative of the future, but, you know, just given where the forward curves sit today, we're looking at a first half, second half, weighted more like a 30/70 this year, which is a little lighter first half than maybe what we typically see. And then even on the Q1, Q2, we're looking at a 35/65 type split. So, you know, absent the impact of RVO change, you know, in Q1, really, we're going to be through the end of Q1 by the time that probably gets resolved, you know, pretty light Q1. So 35/65 first half and 30/70 for the full year.
Andrew Strelzik (Senior Analyst)
Okay, thank you.
John Neppl (CFO)
You bet.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Heather Jones with Heather Jones Research. Please go ahead.
Heather Jones (Founder)
Good morning, thanks for the question.
John Neppl (CFO)
Hello.
Heather Jones (Founder)
I just wanted to just clarify one thing on the guidance. So typically you guys use the forward curve to set your guidance and, you know, adjust that based on what you're seeing in the physical markets. Is that any different? Did you do anything different this time? Like, just, did you just take the curves and then make adjustments for what you're seeing as far as basis, et cetera, or just wanted to clarify that?
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah, Heather, thanks for the question. Yeah, we, we're a little, we're a little boring in our consistency. So yeah, we, we use the exact same approach that we've been, 'cause we just think that makes it easier to understand, you know, how, how we come at this each quarter, but- Yeah, and I, I would just say it's, you know, right now, obviously, we, we would expect once the RVO is finalized, for the conditions to improve. I mean, that-- some of the dynamics we're waiting to hear are obviously finalization or reallocation, the compliance years. Are they gonna have retroactive 2026 to the first of the year? When it's gonna actually get finalized to, to, and start taking effect. So there's, there's still some unknowns there until it actually gets codified.
Rather than try to guess on all that, we just take the curves the way they are and let the market do its work.
Greg Heckman (CEO)
And in a perfect world, we'd get some clarity ahead of our Investor Day on March 10th, but fingers crossed.
Heather Jones (Founder)
I was going to say my fingers are crossed, too. Then a big picture question. So since 2022, 2023, trade lanes have shifted. You don't have the disruption you had then. You've had quite a bit of crush capacity added in North America and South America, but you have more constructive biofuel policy in Indonesia, Brazil, Europe, and if the US is anything like it's been telegraphed, it's going to be much more constructive in the US. So putting all that together, increased capacity, but much greater demand, do you envision a scenario where crush margins, both soft and soy, could, you know, replicate what we saw in the 2022, 2023 timeframe? I know those are a lot of what ifs, but just would love to get your thoughts on a scenario like that.
John Neppl (CFO)
Yep. No, you've called out a lot of the key things that we're seeing. There's no doubt, you know, as John said, the takeaway on meal globally has been better than everyone expected. You know, part of that, I think, continues to be the growth we're seeing in protein demand, especially in chicken and the growth there. On the biofuel policy, no, you're exactly right. There are things happening kind of everywhere, whether it's, you know, the B15 in Brazil and eventually going to B16 later this year, we think. Indonesia does policy. They've shown the ability to continue to make changes there, to adapt what we're seeing in Germany, on the RED III, and then, of course, our own biofuel policy here.
But I think what you're seeing is that governments understand the biofuel policy, it's good for the farming community. It's good for all those communities, that value that starts at the farm gate, then moves through the value chain. So I think we expect biofuel policy to continue to be constructive as far as comparing back to certain years. I don't know that I can make that exact call today, but, you know, I think we feel it's definitely constructive. What we do like, and you ask about soft, is we have a much more balanced footprint globally, not only in soy, but in soft, and and we've added, you know, a larger percentage of soft crush now. And of course, that is definitely favorable with the oil demand, and that will favor soft crush going forward.
So we think, you know, our more balanced footprint there will be helpful for sure. Yeah. I might just add on, Heather, you know, the other thing is we haven't really seen any meaningful global disruption, whether it's weather or geopolitical here for a bit. I mean, there's been obviously the trade issues with China, but when you really think about a big shock to the global system, there really hasn't been one for a while. And, you know, a weather event could really have a big impact in giving our global footprint going forward. I think we feel like we're positioned as good or better than anyone to handle that.
Heather Jones (Founder)
Okay, thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question comes from Andrew Strelzik with BMO. Please go ahead.
Andrew Strelzik (Senior Analyst)
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I had a couple things. The first one, you know, just from an operational perspective, I was hoping that you could maybe compare the Viterra operations, you know, kind of at the time of the acquisition to when you guys took over the Bunge business. I guess where I'm coming from is, you know, I'm curious if you see similar opportunities to kind of transform the earnings power of the Viterra piece, separate of the synergies through internal operations, as has been the case at Bunge, or if there are any meaningful differences that you've observed?
John Neppl (CFO)
You know, I'd say the answer is yes. Was one of the, one of the things I think both companies were excited about, coming together and, and doing the deal, were that best and better practices. And, and as we're able to share that, you know, it starts everywhere from, you know, the safety of our people, as we brought the safety programs together, and relaunched the, the combined safety program, on the, on the best and better practices. And, and definitely, you know, there is a bit of a replay of what we, you know, what we did, you know, in 2019 when, when we joined Bunge. We're now looking at the combined portfolio and making sure that we're running the, the right assets and the right businesses where we have a, a right to win for the long term.
You know, all the capital allocation is done from the center, and that's healthy for the teams to, to compete for that, for that capital. You know, aligning the, the rewards programs and, and staying focused externally on our customers at both ends of the value chain, and being able to do that from that global diversified balance that we now have across crops, across geographies, and across origination, as, as well as crush and distribution. You know, we've got more capillarity and granularity at origination and destination than, than we've ever had. And ultimately, you wrap all that, you know, in a risk culture. And I, and I do think, you know, Bunge, when we joined, had incredible capabilities, as does Viterra. And it's been great to...
You know, our teams did a ton of work pre-close, and we hit the ground running on day one with one view of our global positions for the people to make decisions with. The teams have embraced the culture. They understand how the risk teams and the commercial teams work together in order to, you know, help manage the earnings at risk and run our assets at high capacity utilizations and help our customers manage their risk. And, you know, I'll tell you, in this environment, that is really needed now, and that has real value. And, you know, that's the one that continues to pay, you know, to pay benefits over and over. So look, we're getting started. We've got, you know, we've got a lot to do, but we really like the way the teams are engaging and working together here early on.
You're right, we've done a lot of this before, so it's just about, you know, doing the work.
Andrew Strelzik (Senior Analyst)
Okay, great. That was super helpful. And I apologize if I missed this, but can you share what you're assuming in 2026 in the guidance for synergies on the cost and commercial side, and maybe how we should think about that phasing in within that, the kind of split you gave for EPS through the year? Thank you.
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah, Andrew, this is John. So I would say on the, on the cost side, you know, which is what we've got baked into our forecast primarily, we're, we're feeling very good about where we are. We're estimating about $190 million of realized synergies in 2026, which is actually ahead of schedule. You know, when we look at what we laid out, you know, at the time we, we filed our proxy and laid out our expectation around synergies, you know, we, we expected a, a second year, full year, about $175 million, roughly. We're actually gonna do better than that in, in six months earlier. So we took some action ahead of close and actually started getting the organization structured and ready for the, for the close of the transaction.
So we had a bit of a head start coming in to the close. And, you know, in 2025 and prior, we realized a little over $70 million of synergy already by the end of 2025. And so we're looking at $190 for next year, for 2026, the year we're in now, with a run rate by the end of the year, somewhere around $220 million run rate by the end of the year. So feel very good about that. Of course, that $190 is baked into our forecast. On the commercial side, I think that's still developing. You know, we've got line of sight to a lot of good things, but like anything, those ones are, you know, a little more difficult to quantify, individually.
But, I would say a relatively modest amount of synergy baked into the forecast on the commercial side.
Andrew Strelzik (Senior Analyst)
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question is from Salvatore Tiano with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Salvatore Tiano (Equity Research Analyst)
Yes, thank you very much. I want to start a little bit with the synergy question. If I heard correctly, you said this year we expect to realize $190 million or $90 million?
John Neppl (CFO)
$190 million. $190 million.
Salvatore Tiano (Equity Research Analyst)
So I guess this, by our estimates, is around $0.70 or $0.75 in EPS year-on-year growth. So how is the guidance, I guess, on the low end, and frankly, even adjusting for the, for the dividend, even on the high end, you know, lower year-on-year? It seems a little bit counterintuitive since, you know, even without the RVOs, the operating environment seems to have been a little bit better for, commodities trading, for biofuels. So does this imply essentially a material decline year-on-year before the synergies, and why would that be the case?
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah, I had a little bit trouble hearing you, but I would, I would look at it this way. We're gonna have, you know, with the full year of Viterra, obviously, we have a full year impact of outstanding shares. We have full year of interest cost, you know, full year of depreciation, you know, some of those impacts, obviously. And I would say parts of the business that are yet to be performing as well as I think they could, you know, around grains and the merchandising business. You know, I think going forward, we still have work to do there.
But, you know, overall, I think, you know, again, we're using the forward curves as they stand today, and I think that, you know, getting some clarity there and some upside, you know, will be some opportunity. But at this point, that's how we're seeing it.
Greg Heckman (CEO)
Of that, $190 million synergy, if you look versus 2025, there's $120 million incremental. We did about $70 million in 2025. So, for your modeling, it's $120 million incremental in 2026.
Salvatore Tiano (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, perfect. So that's, that's extremely helpful. And the other thing I want to ask is a little bit about the cadence you provided earlier. It seems to us that this implying kind of $0.80 in Q1, $1.15 Q2, and then around $2.70 in the second half. So my two questions are, firstly, you know, $0.80 in Q1, that would be probably, you know, the lowest EPS figure in a long time, and theoretically, then the idea is that the markets are a little bit better than they were at the trough of last year, yet EPS much lower. So are there any specific items or segments that, you know, may be affected by timing, something that is pushing earnings away from Q1?
The second part of the question is: If we're not really assuming a major improvement in the forward curves, you know, in the guidance, how are we getting to around $2.70 EPS in the second half in each of the quarters? If the RVOs come, are we talking about $3.50, $3, or even $4 at some point in quarterly EPS?
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah, I think if you look, you're really close on, obviously, the first half, kind of the breakdown there in terms of per quarter. And then the second half, I think, you know, we're looking at, you know, about a 40/60 on the second half at this point, but it's still way early, so a little difficult to predict that. But I think, look, there, you know, a lot can happen. You know, a lot of Q1's baked already. We're more than a month into Q1. I think that, you know, we're off to an okay start, but, you know, again, when biofuel policy gets resolved, as far as Q1 can have largely been completed.
And so we're hopeful that it's gonna provide us some upside here as we look through the balance of the year. But yeah, Q1's a really light quarter. You know, we're a much bigger company, you know, and but a lot of you know, uncertainty in what we found, what we've seen, really, second half of 2025 and especially into Q1 of 2026, is very spot customers on both ends. Farmers are spot, our customers are very spot, and it just, you know, creates less opportunity for us.
Greg Heckman (CEO)
And if you look, you know, I might say, if you look kind of coming out of, you know, Q4, you've got on soy, you've got average margins are down in Q1 versus Q4. You know, in soft, you've got, you know, crush margins down, just kinda seasonally versus Q4. And then you say, what, well, kinda how do you come out of Q4? You know, one, you gotta thank the team for, you know, really executing very well in a quarter where you had really no market catalysts, heavy stocks, you've got uncertainty around the bio and trade policy.
So I think what we saw there is, you know, the team executed very well, even though, with ample supplies, you know, farmers don't wanna sell at the lower prices, and, you know, your feed and food customers and fuel customers haven't needed to buy because they've been rewarded for waiting. So that environment is definitely carrying over into Q1. Now, that being said, as in Q4, I think there's opportunities there that the team will execute well against it. The other kind of feature is the Australian harvest, you know, was delayed somewhat by weather. That's now definitely an important feature for us, and that's sliding some of that from Q4 into Q1, but it also has brought margins down a little bit, the way that that harvest is developing and the demand is developing.
Those are, those are kind of some of the features.
Salvatore Tiano (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question is from Ben Theurer with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Ben Theurer (Managing Director)
Hi. Yeah, good morning, Greg, John. Thanks for taking my question. One on grain handling, actually, just to help us understand, because grain merchandising, it, it used to be not as, as relevant, but now with Viterra, it, it starts to become a little more of a heavyweight as well. So how should we think about the, the current conditions, right? 2025 was a lot of uncertainty with trade and the conflicts between U.S., China, et cetera. So as you look through, the opportunities in, in the business, in the combined business, and we talk about the merchandising, maybe ocean freight, et cetera, how should we think about the 2026 setup here? What's like, kind of like a level of disruption or activity that you need in this business to really make the most out of the now larger footprint that you're having?
Greg Heckman (CEO)
Yeah, you know, I'd start by, you know, reminding us, right, we've got six months under our belt running it together. So this, we're looking forward to the, you know, the first half, as this is a very, you know, seasonal business. We'll get to see, you know, Q1 and Q2 with the combined platform, and then we'll start lapping the time that we, we ran together in the, the second half of last year. So look, the teams are continuing to, you know, adjust and do the scenario analysis for a number of things that can happen. But there is that important base load business, right? Serving customers every day. We've got the geographical balance.
We should have the absolute best cost position to be there, you know, with the right product, the right quantity, the right quality, at the right price. So we'll do that base load business and then adjust to whatever disruptions. And we've already seen, you know, some of that, where we've had to repair origins and destinations, and where we've actually had to develop some new destinations because of some of the trade disruptions. So I think that becomes, you know, standard part of the business. And as you called out as well, ocean freight, we've combined that group. We're a very large user, of course, of the ocean freight, and we're starting to see the benefits of that larger platform and some of that, you know, lowering the cost between origin and destination and being able to react faster to change.
So I think part of it is just getting the reps, getting, you know, to fewer systems and processes and, and having the teams, you know, continue to make those improvements. So whatever the environment, we know, it will improve eventually, but, you know, until it does, I know our team will get, all of the benefit that we can out of it.
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah, Ben, maybe I'd just add, I mean, you know, for 2024, we only had a $30 million increase year-over-year in the segment, and I think as you look into 2026, you should see a better year-over-year improvement, especially in the first half, obviously, when we're—we don't have the comps against, you know, the prior Bunge only. But even in the second half, you know, we expect the comps to be better versus the combined company second half. So, it's moving in the right direction. It's just, you know, that's the biggest part of Viterra's business.
While we're really, really pleased with how well the crush was folded in very quickly, because we had a much larger crush footprint, so that folded in very nicely to network quickly. You have a lot more people, a lot more assets, a lot more locations involved on the merchandising and handling side, and it's, it's more work, you know, but back to Greg's point, you know, we're doing the right things. We got the teams focused. It's just gonna take a little bit longer to get that humming.
Ben Theurer (Managing Director)
Okay. My second question, real quick, is, CapEx, obviously last year was, give or take, $1.7 billion, of which a little more than $1.2 billion was for growth. The guidance you've issued for this year is more or less the same level. If we take the midpoint here, just a little bit lower. I suspect the sustaining CapEx goes a little bit up, but it's probably still going to be roughly $1 billion in growth investments. So how should we think about the return on in- investments here, or that $1 billion-plus last year, probably another $1 billion this year? What's, like, the return that you're expecting from that, and especially the timing of those returns?
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah, let me start with maybe talk about the mega projects. So our spend on mega projects, so the four large capital projects that we've the multi-year projects, that spend is gonna drop about $350 million in 2026 as we finish, kinda get to the completion dates on the projects. So that leaves that's about six, call it $600 million-$650 million on the mega projects. That will be largely wrapped up by the end of the year. We really don't we have not modeled in really much, if any, contribution from those projects. So the Morristown plant is in commissioning now, and will be running this year. Obviously, a lot of the time this year is gonna be spent on qualifying the plant for our food customers.
We will get some volume through there, but probably not high enough capacity utilization to have a meaningful contribution in 2026, so we've not really added much in the forecast for that. And then our Destrehan barge unloading and crush plant expansion. Remember, the crush plants in the joint venture with Chevron. And then the barge unloading, those will be up midyear. And, of course, you know, we're not—we don't have a lot baked into the forecast on a contribution in 2026 for those either. I think they'll really be, you know, they'll really be contributing a lot more in as we get into 2027. And then our—the final project is the Westzaan plant in Netherlands. That will be up and running in, you know, for the most part, early 2027.
So not a lot of contribution from those in 2026, but we should see a bump up in 2027 relative to that spend. We've also earmarked a few hundred million for other growth projects in 2026 to round out the billion-dollar rough number. Those haven't all been approved, and we'll review those as we go and may or may not decide to do those, but we've got that included in the forecast. That's why we have a range of $1.1-$1.7. If we did all of that, we'd be closer to $1.7. If we choose not to do some of those projects, we'll be closer to $1.5.
Those, you know, obviously, anything we're constructing during 2026 likely wouldn't have a meaningful impact on 2026 returns.
Greg Heckman (CEO)
Got it. Thank you very much.
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question comes from Steven Haynes with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Steven Haynes (VP of Equity Research)
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. A lot, lots been covered. Maybe just another way on the guidance. I think in the past, you've, you've provided some directional, I guess, guide by segment. I realize it's maybe a bit harder, just given, you know, the first half of last year doesn't have Viterra in it, and, and this year has a full contribution. But is there a way that, you know, maybe you could frame by segment, you know, working back from the midpoint of your guide, like whatever Adjusted EBIT is kind of assumed at that level, you know, how you see that splitting out between each of your businesses this year? Thank you.
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah. Yeah, so if you look, Steven, this is John. If you look at kind of our core segment EBIT, so that's defined as the segment results before corporate. I'd look at it this way, about half that EBIT is gonna be in our soy processing and refining. It's how we're looking at it for the year. So we call that 50%. About a quarter of it in our soft processing and refining segment. And then grain merchandising and milling, we're forecasting to be around 20% of it, and then the remainder, the remaining 5% would be in our other processing, refining. That's kind of how we see the rough forecast for the year. And then, of course, offsetting that to some degree will be the corporate.
The corporate and other, which we would expect to be, you know, call it $120-$125 million per quarter, negative against, against that.
Steven Haynes (VP of Equity Research)
Good. Thank you. Appreciate all the help and detail.
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is from Derrick Whitfield with Texas Capital. Please go ahead.
Derrick Whitfield (Managing Director)
Good morning, all, and thanks for taking my questions.
John Neppl (CFO)
Good morning.
Derrick Whitfield (Managing Director)
With regard, with regard to the RVO, the administration has been quite supportive of the U.S. and farmers nearly at every turn. We have heard in recent weeks a range of 5.2 billion-5.6 billion gallons per BBD volumes. I guess, where is your view on where the administration will land on absolute volumes and the half RIN generation concept for imported products and feedstocks?
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah, Derrick, this is John. I think on the 5.2-5.6, I don't know that we see where it's gonna end up. Obviously, we'd prefer the 5.6, obviously, but we're hopeful they'll at least start at the midpoint of the range and maybe go up from there, especially given that it appears and pretty likely that the half RIN, the 50% RIN, is not gonna take effect in 2026. You know, they're gonna kick that can down the road to 2027 and make a decision then. So hopefully, given that decision, they'll move to the high side of this range of 5.2-5.6. But we don't...
Obviously, don't know yet, and hoping here over the next few weeks to get some clarity.
Derrick Whitfield (Managing Director)
Good deal. Let's hope your crystal ball is right on the 5.6 side. But, maybe on a similar topic. So I read in a recent trade article that Bunge was recognized as the first company to certify soybeans for use in the production of SAF under the CORSIA Plus protocol. To the degree that you can, could you speak to that market opportunity for Bunge from this development, given the favorable price realization for SAF over RD and the tightness we're seeing in qualified feedstocks for SAF?
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah, look, I think it, we don't have anything baked into our forecast for that, so anything that develops during the year is gonna be upside for us. I think it's still a fairly nascent market, at least from the way we've participated up to this point, but certainly is gonna be, you know, incremental demand. It could be massive incremental demand if it really gets rolling. But, you know, we work a lot with the end fuel customers. We've got relationships with all the large fuel producers and those that produce jet fuel. So, you know, we're optimistic that as that gains some traction, you know, we'll be right there to participate. But I would tell you, in our 2026 numbers, we don't have anything meaningful baked in for that, so looking forward to seeing how it develops.
Greg Heckman (CEO)
But we are, you know, we are focused on this, I mean, for the long term. I mean, one of the things that, you know, we've got with the, the partnership with Chevron and, and the partnership with Repsol and some of the other fuel customers, right? It's not only serving them with the current origination that we have, but now having the touch we do globally, with more farmers than anyone else, as we're working to develop some of these new novel seeds and, and cover crops, we'll have the ability, you know, to meet what their needs are for the long term, whether it's SAF or, or renewable diesel or traditional bio, biodiesel. So, you know, really excited about the combined capabilities of the company and, and definitely wanna be the partner of choice for the fuel industry.
Derrick Whitfield (Managing Director)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question comes from Matthew Blair with TPH. Please go ahead.
Matthew Blair (Managing Director)
Great. Thanks for taking my question. So for the $7.50-$8 guide, you mentioned you're just taking, you know, the current futures curve. As we think about the spread there, the low end versus the high end, what determines that? Is that just based on Bunge's execution? You know, what puts you at the low end of that guide, and what puts you at the high end? Thank you.
Greg Heckman (CEO)
Yeah, I'll start, John.
John Neppl (CFO)
Sure.
Greg Heckman (CEO)
You know, I think how we see, you know, the market continue to develop from a demand standpoint, we talked about the soy stocks are definitely heavy, but we have seen that's only in the U.S. Merchant milling, we'll see how as we, you know, have that first half of the year running the combined footprint. And as the you know, crops come off here in Australia, as some of the trade disruption that we've had, we really expect it to be not as complicated as last year. That should be good for our merchandising segment.
You know, from an overall, the other is just we continue to work not only on the cost synergies, as John said, kind of trying to deliver more and faster, and then the commercial synergies as we're on the front end, as the teams work together, as those plans continue to develop, those could continue to benefit us in the second half. So I think the combined platform, we've just got more levers to pull on both the cost as well as the margin side than we've ever had.
John Neppl (CFO)
And I, I would just add, Matthew, that, you know, when you look at our soy and softseeds. We, we can use the forward curves for a majority of that business, and so we feel like whether we agree with the curves or not, that's what we use, and, and that, that's got a fairly decent level of specificity to it. But when you get to the merchandising and milling side, there are no forward curves. And so, you know, what the environment's gonna be like, I think if we, you know, if we continue on with a global heavy stock spot, customers, you know, not a lot of opportunity in that market, it's, it's gonna be a little bit tougher.
But again, volatility, disruption, global demand shifts, trade policy changes, all those things create opportunity on the merchandising side that it's really hard to, to model in. So, you know, we will, you know, obviously be able to be in a good position, as Greg pointed out, take advantage of those things.
Greg Heckman (CEO)
Probably two other things worth mentioning, right? We saw last year, you know, China drawing a lot of beans out of, you know, Brazil, particularly in South America overall. That was created headwinds for crush there. And then, of course, as U.S.-China issue got solved, then taking beans out of the U.S. in the fall, which created some headwinds for crush margins there. We'd expect to see a more normal flow in the coming year. And then on the soft side, of course, we've had, you know, two years in a row of tough sunseed production in the Black Sea, Europe area, and that's been hard on margins.
So, you know, while we've got some more balance in Argentina on the sun crush side, and we've had good crops there in the second half, I think if we can get a good sun crop, that should be improvements in the Black Sea in Europe for sun crushing. So those are some of the flags, I guess, some of the bigger issues that we're watching develop.
Matthew Blair (Managing Director)
Sounds good. And for the follow-up, so renewable diesel margins in the U.S. are already moving up quite a bit in the first quarter. Are there any signs in your system yet on a larger pull for soybean oil from the renewable diesel space? You know, and any signs that U.S. renewable diesel utilization is stepping up as these margins improve?
John Neppl (CFO)
We're seeing, you know, some modest pull, but honestly, I mean, stocks continue to build in oil. And I think until we get clarity and the producers have, you know, certainty, we're still gonna see stocks build. But if we look at the model and we look at the demand, it could turn very quickly. And we could go from a surplus oil environment today, where we're building stocks, to a very tight market very quickly.
Our expectation would be if we get, if we get to the 5.2 or 5.6, depending on even under either of those scenarios, there's gonna be substantial pull on soybean oil, canola oil is, you know, favored bean stocks, along with the domestic low CI, and we'll see things tighten up fairly quickly. Obviously, everybody's kind of waiting to see what's gonna happen. Yeah, there's starting to be some anticipation of that, but not anywhere near what we, what we will expect once things are finalized.
Matthew Blair (Managing Director)
Great. Thanks for your comments.
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is from Manav Gupta with UBS. Please go ahead.
Manav Gupta (Executive Director)
Hi. So my first question is, the buyback was pretty strong in 3Q and—in 3Q, and it dropped off a cliff in 4Q. Like, you went from $545 million to $6 million. I'm just trying to understand, why such a steep drop, and how should we look at buybacks going ahead?
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah, we just, you know, we stepped in the market to get a majority of it done. We just—we didn't complete it all, you know, at the end of Q3 and going into Q4, but we're absolutely committed to wrapping that up, the remaining program. And we'll get that done, I think, fairly soon. Relative to ongoing, I think as we look forward, you know, we definitely see an opportunity to make share buyback a bigger part of our capital allocation process, and we're gonna discuss that more on Investor Day, certainly, as we provide more of a forward outlook. But this machine should generate a lot of cash going forward.
You know, our view is that return to shareholders is gonna be a more critical part of our ongoing capital allocation as we move forward, but we'll highlight more details on that in March.
Manav Gupta (Executive Director)
My second question is, when we look at the Street for 1Q, it's like $1.76. Your guidance is implying $0.80. Like, where do you think the Street is getting it so wrong versus what you are guiding? Like, why is the Street almost double where you are in terms of your guidance?
John Neppl (CFO)
Yeah, I think it's difficult to say maybe at this point, other than maybe understanding the velocity of what we're seeing. You know, that maybe the RVO impact would start getting traction in Q1, and you know, that obviously has been delayed. And you know, we're fairly locked for Q1. So even if we get... As things improve, we have some open capacity to capture some of that, but you know, by the time the RVO gets finalized and enacted, we're gonna be through the quarter. And maybe there's just some- a bit of disconnect in terms of the timing of that.
Greg Heckman (CEO)
I'd say-
Manav Gupta (Executive Director)
Thank you.
Greg Heckman (CEO)
Also, you know what? I hope you—what I hope you heard as we kind of talked through that, while this is fairly back half loaded, as we talk about the range, it feels like there are a lot more things that could kind of turn to the favorable versus be challenging, as we think about how markets develop, policy develops.... more normalized trade flows, you know, versus what we saw in 2025. And, you know, where we've got, you know, a big, big global machine to run with a lot of long lead times, all those things are favorable. So I think we had to look at the things that could, could kind of tip to, to negative or positive. I think we feel things are maybe more bent to the positive, when you roll them all up.
I hope that's clear.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Thank you. The next question is from Pooran Sharma with Stephens Inc. Please go ahead.
Pooran Sharma (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, good morning, and thanks for the question. Just wanted to start off and get a little bit more granularity into the commercial synergy opportunity. I think you mentioned a few details on the call, but was just wondering, you know, what are the opportunities that you've kind of uncovered and what are some of the things that you're working on? Anything kinda higher level would be helpful. Thanks.
Greg Heckman (CEO)
Sure. There's no doubt as a processor, you know, the vertical nature of this combination with Viterra being a much stronger origination and Bunge having a bigger processing footprint. As a processor, the more you can buy direct from the farm, the better that is for controlling, you know, everything from your pipelines and capacity utilization and quality and yields and everything. And, you know, we've definitely got a lot of focus on increasing the percent we buy direct from farmers and providing the markets for them. And now we've got much more capability to do that. We're seeing that gain continue to push forward a higher percent bought direct, and that'll continue.
And then, as we talked earlier, when you're, you know, optimizing the total footprint, you'll make different decisions than when you were competitors on the timing of understanding the needs of a processing plant, and also understanding the needs of our origination and, and being able to keep the flows moving, you know, through the ports and to third-party customers. So getting the reps with the team, and getting an understanding of our combined capabilities has been great.
And then, even if you take something like and talk about our soft seed crushing platform, you know, I talked about we're much more balanced, not only on our seed origination and global merchandising, where we've seen a number of opportunities with some of the trade disruptions to be able to continue to get, you know, farmer seed to market and find the right demand, but also on the meal, on the sun meal and the canola and rapeseed meal. Where when we look at the combined footprint, we've been able to connect origins and destinations that weren't connected before.
And then, as some of those trade lanes were shut off and were not economical, we've even developed some new markets that didn't exist before, that weren't using some of these products, and so we've been able to grow those markets. And it's just the combined capabilities as we get the repetitions to continue to peel those opportunities back. And just the way the teams are working together, I just couldn't be more pleased, and I've had the opportunity to do a lot of travel around and visit plants and visit the offices and visit ports and, you know, it's fantastic. You go into a room and nobody, you know, nobody says, "You know, I was Viterra, I was Bunge." It's just everybody's Bunge.
The teams are excited about the capabilities that we've got in this global platform and what we can do to serve our customers to work together. And there's no lack of challenges in the world right now, but I don't think anybody is, is better equipped than Bunge to deal with it.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Again, if you have a question, please press star then one. We have no further questions, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Greg Heckman for any closing remarks.
Greg Heckman (CEO)
I'd just like to thank everybody for joining us for today. We appreciate your interest in Bunge. We look forward to speaking to you again very soon and hope everybody has a great day. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.