Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Bristol-Myers Squibb has a strong and diversified pipeline with multiple promising assets expected to drive revenue growth, including Cobenfy, CELMoD programs like iberdomide and mezigdamide, and potential first-in-class medicines such as LPA1 and CD19 XT. The company expects a plethora of potential catalysts... over the next 24 months.
- Cobenfy, the first new mechanism of action in schizophrenia in decades, has a strong launch with approximately 1,000 TRxs per week, over 90% Medicaid access and over 80% Medicare access, and positive feedback from both patients and physicians. The company anticipates continued strong uptake through 2025. ,
- Successful cost-saving initiatives totaling an additional $2 billion enhance financial flexibility, allowing continued investment in growth drivers. The company is becoming leaner and more efficient while focusing on its growth portfolio, which now represents over 50% of the business with double-digit growth. , ,
- Significant Revenue Decline Expected in 2025 Due to LOE Impacts: Bristol Myers Squibb projects revenue in 2025 to be approximately $45.5 billion, reflecting the near-term impact of generics across multiple products, including Revlimid and POMALYST, which are expected to face increased generic competition. This revenue guidance is about $1 billion less than consensus, indicating potential challenges in meeting market expectations.
- Uncertainty Around Pipeline Asset Approvals Due to Regulatory Challenges: The reliance on novel endpoints such as Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) for the approval of pipeline assets like iberdomide introduces regulatory uncertainties. The FDA's acceptance of MRD as a primary endpoint is not guaranteed, and approval will depend on the magnitude of the data and discussions with regulators.
- Delay in Key Pipeline Readouts May Postpone Potential Revenue Streams: Important pipeline assets like Milvexian will not have Phase III readouts until late 2026, with no possibility of earlier data in 2025. This delay could postpone the introduction of new revenue-generating products and may impact the company's ability to offset losses from LOE products in the near term.
| Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +8% | Driven by strong performance of new launches (e.g., Reblozyl, Opdualag) and continued growth from in-line brands, partially offset by generic erosion in products like Revlimid. |
Net Income | -96% | Primarily due to significantly higher intangible-asset charges, increased interest expenses, and lower royalty income compared to the prior year. |
United States Revenue | +7% | Benefited from rising demand for key products (Eliquis, Reblozyl), combined with continued momentum in the new product portfolio, despite Revlimid’s ongoing generic erosion. |
International Revenue | +33% | Reflects strong uptake of newer therapies (e.g., Camzyos, Opdualag) in ex-U.S. markets and favorable pricing in certain regions, partially offset by foreign exchange impacts and competition for older brands. |
Eliquis | +11% | Higher demand and market share in the U.S., with stable international uptake, though impacted by coverage gap dynamics in Medicare. |
Pomalyst/Imnovid | +825% | Surge driven by less free drug product distribution in the U.S. compared to prior periods and resilient volume amid limited competition, boosting overall sales significantly. |
Reblozyl | +1609% | Reflects broad adoption following its first-line label expansion for MDS in mid-2023, significantly increasing patient volumes in both U.S. and international markets. |
Opdualag | +1237% | Rapid uptake as a first-line melanoma therapy, gaining new standard-of-care status in several markets and driving substantial YoY growth. |
Abecma | >10,000% | Driven by label expansions (e.g., earlier-line multiple myeloma) and increased manufacturing capacity compared to earlier limited supply, resulting in a dramatic YoY revenue jump. |
Sprycel | -62% | Impacted by loss of exclusivity and generic entry in major markets, leading to a sharp decline in both volume and net selling prices. |
Revlimid | -8% | Ongoing generic erosion in the U.S. and key international markets, along with lower average net selling prices, continue to weigh on performance. |
Abraxane | -30% | Decreased U.S. demand from generic competition, partially offset by growth in certain international markets; overall net decline in worldwide sales. |
| Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Margin | FY 2025 | At least 37% | 37% | no change |
Revenue | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $45.5 billion | no prior guidance |
Gross Margin | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | 72% | no prior guidance |
Operating Expenses | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $16 billion | no prior guidance |
OI&E | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $30 million | no prior guidance |
Tax Rate | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | 18% | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP EPS | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $6.55 to $6.85 | no prior guidance |
Legacy Portfolio Decline | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | 18% to 20% | no prior guidance |
Cost Savings Program | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Incremental $2 billion in savings | no prior guidance |
| Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Margin | FY 2024 | At least 37% | Based on full-year Operating Income (Q1: -11,516, Q2: 1,286, Q3: 1,676, Q4: 175) vs. full-year Revenue (Q1: 11,865, Q2: 12,201, Q3: 11,892, Q4: 12,342), the margin is negative. | Missed |
Non-GAAP EPS | FY 2024 | Raised to $0.75 - $0.95 | Only GAAP EPS is available (Q1: -5.89, Q2: 0.84, Q3: 0.60, Q4: 0.04); full-year GAAP EPS is negative. | Missed |
Revenue Growth | FY 2024 | ~5% as reported | Q4 2024 revenue of 12,342 vs. Q4 2023 revenue of 11,477, ~7.5% growth for Q4 YOY, exceeding the 5% guidance. | Surpassed |
Revlimid Sales | FY 2024 | ~$5.5B | Q1: 1,669, Q2: 1,353, Q3: 1,412, Q4: 1,339→ Total ~$5.77B | Surpassed |
| Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
Cost-Saving Initiatives | Targeted $1.5B savings by 2025, reinvested in growth. | Additional $2B savings by 2027, with $1B realized in 2025; savings drop to bottom line. | Deeper scope and accelerated timeline |
Pipeline Diversification | Focused on oncology, immunology, and CV; discontinued 12 low-ROI programs; invested in Opdualag, Milvexian, and KarXT. | Accelerated R&D with 15+ registrational trials by 2026; launching Cobenfy and Opdivo Quvantic. | Continued emphasis, broader late-stage assets |
LOE Concerns for Major Products | Eliquis LOE in 2028, mid-decade IRA pricing impact; Revlimid cliff by end of 2025. | Revlimid full generic entry in Jan 2026, Pomalyst LOE; IRA headwinds for Eliquis. | Still a major focus, timelines more defined |
KarXT Launch Preparations | Building a neuroscience sales force, payer engagement for a 2025 launch. | No mention. | No longer mentioned in current period |
Cobenfy Launch Metrics | No mention of specific metrics [no references in Q1 2024]. | ~1,000 TRx/week, >90% Medicaid and >80% Medicare access; $10M in Q4 sales. | Newly discussed, strong initial uptake |
Milvexian Readout Timelines | Enrollment accelerating, but no specific readout timeline. | Phase III stroke and ACS data expected in 2026, no 2025 readout. | New clarity on pivotal data timing |
Novel Endpoint Approvals (MRD) | Not discussed in Q1 2024. | Evaluating MRD as a registration endpoint in multiple myeloma. | Potential acceleration in myeloma development |
Regulatory Uncertainties | IRA negotiations for Eliquis noted, awaiting final price clarity. | Continuing to address IRA impacts on Eliquis, exploring policy improvements. | Lingering concerns, seeking legislative adjustments |
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Revenue Guidance Below Consensus
Q: Why is your 2025 revenue guidance about $1 billion below consensus?
A: The lower guidance reflects expected LOE impacts, notably REVLIMID declining to $2–2.5 billion, and other generic pressures. Adjusting for a $500 million currency headwind, we're broadly in line with consensus. -
Trough Earnings Timing
Q: When do you expect earnings to trough? Could Cobenfy change this?
A: We anticipate earnings to trough around 2028–2029, but we're working to improve the timing and depth by accelerating growth drivers like Cobenfy, potentially enhancing our growth exiting the decade. -
Cobenfy Expansion Plans
Q: What are your plans to accelerate Cobenfy's growth post-Emracladine failure?
A: With the failure of emracladine, we see a significant long-term opportunity for Cobenfy; we're accelerating programs, exploring additional indications, and plan to drive meaningful growth into the middle of the next decade. -
Discontinuation of Cendakimab
Q: What is the status of cendakimab's development?
A: We've decided not to commercialize cendakimab based on data, prioritizing investments where we have competitive advantages and higher returns, similar to our decision with Zeposia in UC. -
Cost Program and Future Savings
Q: Will you have additional cost opportunities after the $2B program?
A: We're continually aligning spending with business needs; the current cost program enhances financial flexibility, but we'll always ensure we rightsize the organization as necessary. -
Impact of Part D Redesign
Q: How does Part D redesign affect Eliquis and other drugs?
A: Eliquis will benefit from eliminating the coverage gap, reversing usual sales patterns with stronger second-half sales, but increased gross-to-net pressures on products like REVLIMID, POMALYST, and CAMZYOS will offset this, making the overall impact roughly net neutral. -
Advancing Pipeline Timelines
Q: How are you delivering on pipeline advancements and timelines?
A: Through operational excellence and a laser focus on R&D productivity, we've accelerated programs, aiming to deliver 15 or more registrational trial readouts by the end of next year. -
Policy Implications and IRA Revisions
Q: What are your views on potential IRA revisions under the new administration?
A: We look forward to working with the new administration to address challenges in the IRA, aiming to fix damaging aspects and perverse incentives, focusing on issues like spillover impacts.