BellRing Brands - Q1 2024
February 6, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to BellRing Brands' first quarter fiscal year 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jennifer Meyer, Investor Relations for BellRing Brands. Please go ahead.
Jennifer Meyer (Head of Investor Relations)
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for BellRing Brands' first quarter fiscal 2024 earnings call. With me today are Darcy Davenport, our President and CEO, and Paul Rode, our CFO. Darcy and Paul will begin with prepared remarks, and afterwards, we'll have a brief question-and-answer session. The press release and supplemental slide presentation that support these remarks are posted on our website in both the Investor Relations and the SEC Filings sections at BellRing.com. In addition, the release and slides are available on the SEC's website. Before we continue, I would like to remind you that this call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that should be carefully considered by investors, as actual results could differ materially from these statements. These forward-looking statements are current as of the date of this call, and management undertakes no obligation to update these statements.
As a reminder, this call is being recorded and an audio replay will be available on our website. Finally, this call will discuss certain non-GAAP measures. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure, see our press release issued yesterday and posted on our website. With that, I will turn the call over to Darcy.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Thanks, Jennifer, and thank you all for joining us. Last evening, we reported our first quarter results and posted a supplemental presentation to our website. This presentation is designed to provide more insight into our business, consumption, and key metrics, and now includes more information on our powders business. I'm pleased to share that fiscal 2024 is off to an excellent start. The business continues to accelerate as we bring on new shake capacity and begin to drive demand. Our first quarter results came in ahead of our expectations. Net sales grew 19% over prior year, and Adjusted EBITDA was up 18%. Premier Protein drove the outperformance as some key customers chose to rightsize their trade inventory that they were heading into the New Year, New You season that started in January.
As you saw in yesterday's press release, we raised our outlook for the year. We now expect net sales to grow between 12% and 17% over fiscal 2023 and adjusted EBITDA to grow between 11% and 18%. Our better-than-expected first quarter performance, along with strong consumption trends and confidence in our capacity expansion, drove our decision to raise the top and the bottom line. Moving to shake production. In fiscal 2023, we made notable progress to grow and diversify our shake supply, and our efforts continue into 2024. I'm happy to share that we've brought our second greenfield co-man facility, Michael Foods, online during Q1. They will continue to scale up over the next 12 months, producing more shakes every quarter. We remain on track to grow production north of 20% this year, enabling strong net sales growth in 2024 and increased weeks of supply.
The demand and supply dynamics on shakes will remain tight for most of the year, and we will continue to be nimble so we can navigate effectively. Now to the category and brand updates. The Convenient Nutrition category grew 10% in Q1 as tailwinds around health and wellness and fitness continued to drive growth. Consumer interest in functional beverages and sports nutrition products continues to be high. Ready-to-drink led the category up 16%, and ready-to-mix grew 6%. Increased supply and distribution gains are lifting Ready-to-drink growth, while the growth in ready-to-Mix remained healthy despite lapping significant price increases. Premier Protein shake consumption remained strong this quarter, up 29%. Growth was robust across all channels, driven by improved supply, distribution expansion, and continued excitement around our seasonal flavors. The highest growth was in mass and e-commerce.
Mass benefited from higher in-stock levels and distribution gains, while e-commerce saw strong growth behind promotional activity. Our latest seasonal flavor, Winter Mint Chocolate, demonstrated remarkable incrementality to the brand. January consumption growth continues at 34%, lifted by incremental promotional activity in tracked channels. Our brand metrics reflect our continued momentum as Premier Protein reached all-time highs in TDPs and household penetration. Premier Protein, with RTD market share of 21%, maintained its position as the number one brand in the RTD segment, as well as the number one brand in the broader Convenient Nutrition category. Premier Protein continues to gain new users, reaching over 17% of households this quarter, adding nearly one percentage point versus Q4. In calendar year 2023, the brand grew household penetration 24%, a significant contributor to the overall RTD category growth....
Premier Protein's household penetration continues to be the highest in the category, and we expect our marketing and promotional activities in the remainder of fiscal 2024 to further grow our reach. With the RTD segment's household penetration still below categories such as nutrition bars and energy drinks, we still see tremendous opportunity to grow in our existing channels. Premier Protein Powder continued its strong trajectory, growing 66% in Q1, behind distribution gains, strong velocities, and promotional support. The momentum continued in January, up 50%, as we begin a powder-focused marketing campaign. We remain encouraged by the growth potential of the Premier Protein brand in this format. In fact, during calendar year 2023, Premier Powder's household penetration grew 82%, the highest of any key competitor in the powder category.
We believe the brand will continue to bring mainstream consumers into the powder category in the same way Premier did to the ready-to-drink category. Turning to Dymatize. The brand had a solid quarter, with household penetration maintaining record highs and consumption up 16%, significantly outpacing the category. We saw double-digit growth in nearly all channels, driven by distribution gains, promotion, and continued top-tier velocities. Specialty consumption growth was the only exception. It remains challenged as consumers shift purchases to mainstream channels. Looking forward, Dymatize launched a new national marketing campaign in Q2, which focuses on what makes the brand unique, its superior super premium ingredients and amazing taste. The Formulated for More campaign has three pillars. The first focuses on the brand's superior ingredients and how they support superior results for athletes.
The second pillar showcases our amazing-tasting flavors, like Fruity Pebbles, to highlight the fun they bring to even the most serious athletes. The third is possibly the most exciting if you're a football fan. I'm thrilled to share, we have expanded our core team of Dymatize athletes and influencers, and we are partnering with San Francisco All-Pro running back, Christian McCaffrey. We are eager to see the impact this type of enhanced digital marketing and top-tier influencer will have on our brand awareness and household penetration. In closing, our Q1 results position us well for an above-algorithm fiscal year. Our confidence in our long-term outlook for BellRing remains strong. Our business is focused on the strongest segments of a growing category with a ton of upside. Premier Protein and Dymatize are leading mainstream brands with low household penetration and strong loyalty.
Our momentum continues to grow as we begin to drive shake demand and ramp up our powder marketing efforts. We continue to increase our shake supply and our scalable supply chain will enable many years of robust shake growth. We are bringing flavor excitement to consumers and retail partners, and more innovation in our pipeline to fuel future growth. Before passing over to Paul, I'm sure that most of you have heard that Rob Vitale, our Executive Chairman, has returned from his medical leave. We are incredibly excited to have him back at full strength. We look forward to sharing our progress next quarter, and I will now turn the call over to Paul.
Paul Rode (CFO)
Thanks, Darcy, and good morning, everyone. As Darcy highlighted, our first quarter results came in above our expectations. Net sales for the quarter were $430 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $101 million. Net sales grew 19% over prior year, and adjusted EBITDA increased 18%, with adjusted EBITDA margins of 23.4%. Starting with brand performance, Premier Protein net sales grew 19% behind strong volume growth for RTD shakes and powders. Distribution gains, organic growth, and light promotional activity drove shake growth. Shake consumption dollars grew 29%, outpacing shipment growth of 19%. The former benefited primarily from higher net pricing as price increases at retail lagged our October 2022 price increase on shakes. Dymatize net sales increased 21% this quarter as the brand benefited from increased distribution and organic growth to domestic mainstream channels.
These gains, combined with lapping last year's Q1 trade inventory deload, drove volume gains in the quarter. Price mix was a partial offset to this growth, driven by incremental promotional activity and unfavorable mix. Gross profit of $148 million grew 22%, with an increase in gross profit margin of 80 basis points to 34.4%. The margin increase resulted from net input cost deflation, partially offset by incremental promotional activity and lapping production attainment fees received in the prior year. Excluding one-time costs in the prior year period, SG&A expenses as a percentage of net sales increased 90 basis points as we lap our lowest SG&A spend quarter in 2023. Operating profit of $73 million decreased $2 million compared to prior year and was negatively impacted by $17 million of accelerated amortization.
This was a non-cash expense recorded in connection with our Q4 decision to discontinue the PowerBar North American business and was treated as an adjustment for non-GAAP measures. The intangible assets associated with this business were fully amortized in the first quarter. Before reviewing our outlook, I would like to make a few comments on cash flow and liquidity. We generated $74 million in cash flow from operations in the first quarter. While our working capital modestly decreased in the first quarter, we continue to expect net working capital growth in fiscal 2024 to exceed our net sales growth rate as we add weeks of shake supply. As a result, our cash flow in fiscal 2024 will be modestly lower than fiscal 2023. During the quarter, we repaid the remaining $25 million of borrowings under our revolving credit facility.
As of December 31, net debt was $755 million, and net leverage was 2.1 times. With our adjusted EBITDA growth and strong cash flow generation, we anticipate net leverage will decline below two times in fiscal 2024. With respect to our share repurchases this quarter, we bought 200,000 shares at an average price of $44.27 per share, or $9 million in total. Our remaining share repurchase authorization is $14 million. Turning to our outlook, we raised our fiscal 2024 guidance for net sales to be $1.87 billion-$1.95 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $375 million-$400 million.
Our guidance applies strong top line growth of 12%-17% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 11%-18%, with healthy adjusted EBITDA margins of 20.3% at the mid. As Darcy mentioned, our better-than-expected first quarter performance drove our decision to raise our outlook, and we don't expect any major changes to the cadence we communicated last quarter. Moving to our second quarter forecast, we expect net sales growth to exceed 20%, with the majority of the growth driven by Premier Protein as we restart meaningful shake promotions. Consequently, we expect pricing to be a significant offset to strong shake volume growth. We expect second quarter adjusted EBITDA margins to improve modestly compared to prior year, as higher gross margins are partially offset by higher SG&A as a percentage of net sales.
Gross margins are expected to benefit from lower protein costs, offset partially by increased promotional spend and other input cost inflation. In closing, we are pleased with our good start to fiscal 2024. Our strong Q1 results give us greater confidence in our full year outlook and long-term growth prospects. I will now turn it over to the operator for questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar from Barclays.
Andrew Lazar (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Good morning, everybody.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Good morning.
Andrew Lazar (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hi. Maybe to start off, trying to get a better sense of what you think is driving customers to sort of raise their trade inventories. It sounds like that happened, I guess, at a greater level than maybe you had anticipated heading into this sort of the New Year, New You season. Is that normal course of business or indicative of, you know, the increased shelf space and distribution? Just trying to get a sense of what drove that, if it was sort of beyond your expectation.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Yeah, it was. It was beyond, and mainly it was due to a few customers carrying low inventory in Q1 during the holidays. And so what happened is they were low. We weren't sure if they were going to right-size their inventory, but they did, and we were able to meet the demand. So it was more about right-sizing their own inventory because they were low.
Andrew Lazar (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Then I think when you initially provided your fiscal 2024 guidance last quarter, sales growth at the midpoint of about 12.5% was well below your expected capacity increase for the year of, I think, around 20%. Much of that, I think, was attributed to your expectation that, you know, some of the added capacity would be build up your own internal safety stock. If capacity is still expected to grow around 20%, I guess I'm trying to get a sense of, you know, I guess, why now you're expecting a narrower gap between added capacity and sales growth. I don't know if it's simply just that demand is stronger than you thought, and so basically you don't add as much safety stock as you anticipated.
Just trying to get a sense of what drives that and what that means for the business. Thanks so much.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Yep, that's right. Yeah, simply put, given the current consumption trends, we estimate that we will need to use more of our capacity for sales instead of inventory. You know, as we explained last, we need to build our inventory up to a level. Our target is 6-8 weeks, but we do have the flexibility. We can operate around, you know, 4-5 weeks. So if the demand is there, we're gonna make a call, and we can lean a little bit more into sales.
Andrew Lazar (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Thanks so much.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman from Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman (Executive Director and Equity Analyst)
Good morning.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Morning.
Pamela Kaufman (Executive Director and Equity Analyst)
I have a follow-up to Andrew's second question, maybe just asked slightly differently. I guess, just given how strong demand has been in recent months, do you have enough supply to meet the demand if it, you know, stays at these levels? And, I guess, you know, is there any flexibility to add more capacity, or, you know, to kind of exceed the, you know, the current guidance if demand stays where it is?
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
We do have the capacity to meet the current guidance. And as for additional capacity to flex, you know, it's possible. You know, I mean, I think that, you know, we now have a network that is much more robust than we've ever had before. So suffice it to say, we are talking to every single one of our co-mans to see if we can get incremental supply. We have been for, you know, the last 20, you know, for honestly, as long as I have been here, but specifically really working hard for the last, you know, 12-24 months.
What I think is encouraging is we now have our two greenfields, they're scaling, but in addition to those, we have, you know, six more partners that are increasing their production as well. So I think that I don't expect we have solid... You know, our current guidance is we have full confidence that we can deliver that, and, as for on top of that, I would just say that, like, you know, we're pushing our co-mans to get more to supply demand.
Pamela Kaufman (Executive Director and Equity Analyst)
Thank you. And just my other question is about your plans for promotions. Have you adjusted your plans at all, just considering how strong demand has been? Maybe is there a need to promote less, just given the demand environment?
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
So our plan to promote this year, you know, is intact. So, I mean, you have to, you have to really, we commit to our promotions well ahead of plan, and our retailers depend on it. So our 2024 plan has been set for a bit. As you know, what you're seeing in the tracked consumption right now is a result of, A, you know, distribution, stronger in stocks, but also promotion, and specifically in a couple of our, our major customers that are in tracked channels. So, you know, that is one of the... We, we believe in promotion in just that, and I think I've talked to you about this before. It's less about the percentage off, but it's more about the display, so we can get the eyeballs on this brand, which is still a low household penetration brand.
Q2 is our biggest promotional quarter, and after that, it becomes, we start leaning a little bit more into marketing as opposed to promotion.
Pamela Kaufman (Executive Director and Equity Analyst)
Thank you. I'll pass it on.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Ken Goldman from JPMorgan.
Ken Goldman (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, thank you. One of the questions I received from investors overnight was, you know, whether we should be modeling a reversal of that one Q inventory load. I assume, listening to you today and given that that load was really to refill what was low in customer stocks, that we shouldn't model necessarily any kind of reversal in terms of maybe you under shipping in any quarter ahead. Just to make sure that's correct, if I can start with that.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Correct.
Paul Rode (CFO)
Yes. Yeah, correct, Ken. We do not believe we shipped ahead. There will be a modest deload in Q2 because we did ship some promotional volume in the first quarter, which we expected, but we expect a modest deload and a smaller deload than we saw last year.
Ken Goldman (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Thank you. And then I'll just stay on the same line of of reasoning. What happens if, you know, there's a, you know, you're promoting, you're committed to your promotions, you're pushing your co-mans as hard as you can. I guess the question is, if there's a situation again, where your customers say: Look, our stocks are low, can you ship us more? Are you less able to do that going forward? This is obviously a great problem to have if you do have it, right, if demand is too high. But is it reasonable, I guess, to think that, hey, maybe, the level of overshipment we saw in 1Q, you know, wouldn't necessarily happen again, just given your ability to produce, after what we saw in 1Q?
Paul Rode (CFO)
Yeah, Ken, I would say-
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Yeah, go ahead.
Paul Rode (CFO)
Well, I think it's fair to say that, yeah, I mean, that obviously it reduces our flexibility to some degree, because we did not expect that, but we feel very good about our capacity that's coming online and where we are with our guidance, so we feel comfortable. But you're right. I mean, at some point, if demand's so strong, you will, you know, you'll start to stretch your inventory, but we feel good about where we're at right now.
Ken Goldman (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of John Baumgartner from Mizuho Securities.
John Baumgartner (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Good morning. Thanks for the question.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Good morning, John.
John Baumgartner (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
I wanted to come back to... Good morning, actually. I wanted to come back to Premier Powder and the market share growth you're, you're seeing there. Do you have a sense as to, you know, from where that share is being sourced? Are you seeing any sort of shift from consumers having previously bought powders positioned more towards the weightlifter or bodybuilder segment? Are those folks shifting more towards everyday brands like Premier, or is this just more of a situation where Premier launches and it's incremental to the overall powder category?
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
We think it's mostly the latter. So, it's really... I mean, I think this is one of the areas that we're just starting to talk about more, and I think internally, we're getting really excited about Premier Protein Powder. Just to give you some numbers, actually, Premier Protein Powder is now—I mean, it's only 1.6 points of household penetration, so teeny, but it just surpassed Dymatize. So, you know, Dymatize has always been a really amazing brand, but it's pretty narrow. It's for, you know, the best... and the most sophisticated athletes. And then you've got Premier, that is a mainstream brand now going into powders.
And so it's bringing in new consumers, and, I mean, I said this in my scripted remarks, but we really think that Premier has the ability to really mainstream the powder segment, similar to what it did to the ready-to-drink segment.
John Baumgartner (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, great. And then as a follow-up, coming back to the promotional discussion for Premier ready-to-drink. The distribution points there are up, like, 40% year-on-year, but the volume velocity is only down slightly, even absent larger promo and advertising spending. Is there anything notable in terms of where these most recent distribution points have been accumulating, or whether it's non-price promotion, that's, you know, elevating the volume more so than you would typically see as you build distribution?
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Most of the distribution gains on Premier are twofold. One is the expanded breadth of the flavors, so getting some of the paused flavors back on, but just continuing to expand. We have launched now—we launched Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough in first mass. Our seasonal flavors are really doing just incredibly well, gathering a lot of consumer excitement. The second piece is the upsizing, upsizes to 12-count in food and mass, which have seen a lot more incrementality than we would have seen. Those distribution points are working harder because they're bigger packs.
John Baumgartner (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks for your time, Darcy.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala from Jefferies. Kaumil, please check your line. Make sure that you are not on mute. If your line is muted, please unmute it, or please rejoin using the call me feature. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Matt Smith from Stifel.
Matt Smith (Director)
Hi, good morning, Darcy and Paul. I wanted to ask a question about when you look at the sales growth outlook in fiscal 2024, how do you balance the rate of household penetration gains against upside to the annual buy rate? When we look at the buy rate, it implies a relatively low frequency of purchasing through the year. So are you looking at your promotional activity to drive frequency with existing users or more to bring new users into the Premier Protein brand?
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Both, actually. I think that what you saw in this last year. If you look at the household penetration that was gained in this last year, about, call it 25%, that is really a result of both getting back to some light. You saw household penetration pop in Q4 of last year and then has continued, and that was a factor of bringing back some light promotions. And then, but it also, but then you also look at the buy rate, so in our supplemental, that also increased.
For the first time, it's been pretty steady throughout the last several years, but it popped up this last year, and that is a result of kind of getting back into promotion, and especially, you know, in our club accounts. So it's really a combination. And that's why, you know, we believe in promotion, and it's mostly because you get out of the aisle and you get new eyeballs, but then also people load up as well, so... And we know that once this brand is in the household, not only do people consume more, but more people in the household consume it. So it really is a combination.
Matt Smith (Director)
Paul, just a follow-up on the guidance outlook. The midpoint now suggests a slightly higher EBITDA margin. What's supporting the higher margin? Is that additional volume leverage, or do you have better line of sight into protein costs in the second half? Last quarter, you talked about some supply ingredient tightness. Has that alleviated? Are you better covered now through the end of year?
Paul Rode (CFO)
So we are, we are slightly more covered than we were back in November, so we do have better visibility. We're not fully covered at this point, so the fourth quarter still has some open, but yeah, we're, we're a little bit more covered. As far as your question around margin, you're right, the midpoint is about 20 basis points higher, and it's a combination of the two things you mentioned. So it's a little bit of leverage on the SG&A, so the higher sales being leveraged on the SG&A line, and then just a little bit better visibility into the protein for the rest of the year. So those are the two main drivers. Nothing really dramatically has changed from our original guidance.
Matt Smith (Director)
Thank you. I can leave it there and pass it on.
Paul Rode (CFO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Holland from D.A. Davidson.
Brian Holland (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Thanks. Good morning. Darcy, you touched on Premier Protein ready-to-drink shakes hitting a new TDP peak this quarter. Just curious, any sense whether that incremental shelf space is coming from other competitors within ready-to-drink shakes or an adjacent category?
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
I can speak to a mass retailer that reset in Q4, and we'll call it maybe indicative of others. It was a combination. So not only did the entire set of Convenient Nutrition gain space, but also the ready-to-drink and powder segments gained space within the set, so bars actually lost space. And then within kind of the ready-to-drink space, there's always a shuffling around. And, you know, we're seeing that performance nutrition and what we call everyday nutrition, those are the parts of the ready-to-drink category that are really kind of you know booming, where some of the others, adult weight, those are not doing as well.
Brian Holland (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Appreciate the color. And then, just curious, you gave some data points on January consumption trends for Premier Protein within ready-to-drink shakes. Just curious what you're seeing from a competitive standpoint around resolution season, if there's any change in promotional activity or anything of the sort. You know, just is anything noticeable, noticeably different or incremental to, you know, this time last year?
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
I mean, it's only a few weeks in, but, you know, I think that, you know, our business is moving. We are seeing more promotion, actually across the whole category. And actually, we saw it in Q1 as well, which was not normal to have promotion in that kind of October, November, December time frame. So are seeing some enhanced promotion, more so on a little bit more so on the powder side of things, but also on the ready-to-drink side. Still a few people taking pricing within ready-to-drink this last quarter. And then, just, you know, consumption is just incredibly strong on ready-to-drink in January.
Brian Holland (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Helpful. Thanks.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Jim Salera from Stephens.
Jim Salera (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking our question.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Good morning.
Jim Salera (Equity Research Analyst)
I wanted to ask, I think historically, you've mentioned on the ready-to-drink shakes, like around 60% of the use occasion is breakfast, like a meal, like breakfast replacement. As you've increased the number of households, has that use occasion kind of held steady, or have we seen a different consumer that is maybe using it, you know, as a lunch replacement or as a supplement after a workout? Maybe just start there.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
The bulk of our consumption is still breakfast, so that has stayed constant. You know, one area. This is where innovation can help and even new flavors. So when we launched Café Latte, for instance, that has the equivalent, the amount of caffeine as a cup of coffee, and so people started using that as a replacement for that kind of afternoon latte. So that's an example where we purposely used innovation to expand the occasions. But at the, at the end of the day, still the bulk of the consumption is a breakfast replacement.
Jim Salera (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. And then if I think about when I go through the store in my area, I've seen a lot of your products placed kind of just in the middle of the aisle, you know, as you're walking through some of the main aisles, obviously, highly visible, you know, good place for an impulse purchase. If the product is kind of part of daily consumption and you're seeing increase in household uptake, could we think about that as being part of the display throughout the year and not just around kind of the, you know, new year, new you season?
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
For sure. For sure. I mean, our focus, you know, our entire sales team is focused on getting display. We, you know, quality merch is the focus, because, I mean, and I said this earlier, but it's less about, you know, cents off or TPRs, that's gonna drive the business, but it's the display because it's a mainstream product that has low household penetration and still fairly low awareness. So, and just by... Because protein's hot. It's convenient, and you put it out in front, and you kind of put it out in front of people's eyes, and all of a sudden they consider it.
I think that absolutely, the goal is to get more display, get our products out where, you know, they think about it up at the cash register, in coolers, on end aisle, and really increase the awareness of it.
Jim Salera (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, great. Thanks. I'll hop back in the queue.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Thomas Palmer from Citi.
Thomas Palmer (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Morning, and thanks for the question. Maybe just follow up first on just the cost environment as we think about the balance of this year. I think a quarter ago, you kind of indicated the first half was expected to be more favorable. It sounds like you have visibility at least stretching through three Q and maybe into four Q. How does that favorability, I guess, progress as we think about the second half of the year?
Paul Rode (CFO)
Yeah, again, our thoughts haven't changed too much from the November guidance. So you're correct that we expect more protein favorability in the first half, and then that starts to moderate as we go into the second half. What we've seen recently is there's been net, it's slightly favorable from where it was, but we've seen some puts and takes within the protein complex, so some are up, some are down. But net, we still expect our favorability to start to moderate as we get into the second half. So cost will go up in the third and fourth quarter sequentially as we go forward.
Thomas Palmer (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. No, thanks for that. And then I know you, when Pam had asked, you kind of answered on the promo flexibility or, you know, the commitment to it. What about marketing dollars? Because that is more back half weighted. There's probably more of an element of discretion there, I guess. Is there a thought of kind of flexing that a bit if demand is so high that you don't really need the incremental demand to build, or are marketing decisions maybe more long-term oriented where that's not as much of a consideration as we think about this year?
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
We definitely have more flexibility on marketing, because, yeah, it's in our control. We are already supporting our powder side of the business, as well as we are doing some support around bottles because we don't have constraints there. So but as for kind of the broader equity support around the Tetra side of the business, which is the lion's share, we do have flexibility. We're currently developing our campaign that we plan to launch in Q4. And I mean, as you guys know, the impact of marketing isn't always immediate. It's more of a long-term play. So we'll make those decisions later, you know, you usually have to make those decisions within kind of a, you know, couple months of launch.
We have a little time to evaluate if we're going to launch as expected, you know, maybe go a little lighter or or wait.
Thomas Palmer (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Bryan Spillane from Bank of America.
Bryan Spillane (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Hey, thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Just, I think, just a couple of quick ones for me, really for you, Paul. Is one, just I guess, as we're thinking about the cadence on pricing, will it, you know, like, just whether Q2 would be down the most, I guess, of the quarters of the balance of the year? Just if you can give us some sense, even just at a total company level, how we're thinking about the cadence on pricing over the balance of the year.
Paul Rode (CFO)
Yeah, absolutely. The second quarter should be the biggest impact from pricing as we have significant promotions going on in most of our channels. So that would certainly be the biggest pricing headwind from as you go through the quarters. The rest of quarters are fairly balanced, slight headwinds, but that's really the second quarter where it's the most meaningful.
Bryan Spillane (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Okay. And then is this year—should this be a pretty good year as we're kind of modeling the out years and thinking about, you know, the timing of promotions? You know, there is some seasonality. Just, is this sort of a normal year as we're beginning to kind of do the out year model the out years in terms of just the flow of promotions and the seasonality in the business?
Paul Rode (CFO)
Yes. You know, as we go forward, we'd expect the second quarter will always be kind of the heaviest, the heaviest period, as that's just when a lot of consumers come into the category. And so, so yeah, we'd expect the second quarter is typically the heaviest promotional period. The fourth quarter is kind of the next. We don't typically promote much in the first quarter. That's a seasonally low consumption period. And then the third quarter is kind of somewhere in between. Not usually a lot of promotion in the third quarter. I'd say the only difference from from how this year is playing out is we typically also spend heavier marketing behind our shakes in the second quarter. We are not doing that, as we've talked about earlier on this call, with-
... just as we're continuing to manage supply and demand, but we do expect that to ramp up in the fourth quarter. So that's the only difference, but from a promotional calendar, yes, it's primarily heavy Q2, a bit in Q4, and then Q1 and Q3 are typically fairly light.
Bryan Spillane (Managing Director of Equity Research)
All right, cool. And then just, just one last one. Just, I think you said earlier that, 2Q SG&A as a percentage of sales is gonna be higher. And I just, I just wasn't sure, is it higher than the first quarter, higher versus last year? Just, just wanted to clarify that.
Paul Rode (CFO)
Yeah, the comment was higher than last year.
Bryan Spillane (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Okay, so year-over-year percentage, as a percentage of sales, it'll be higher this year than last year.
Paul Rode (CFO)
Honestly, higher, correct.
Bryan Spillane (Managing Director of Equity Research)
All right, cool. All right, that's it for me. Thank you.
Paul Rode (CFO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Bill Chappell from Truist Securities.
Bill Chappell (Managing Director)
Thanks. Good morning.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Good morning.
Bill Chappell (Managing Director)
Darcy, just trying to get arms around where we go from here in terms of household penetration, and I think for ready-to-drink shakes, you said Premier's now at 17%, which is almost, you know, one in five households, and some would say not one in five households actually eat breakfast each morning. So I'm cur-- when you look at the next kind of eight points, you know, get to 25%, does that come from bar users? Does that come from energy drink users? Does that come from lunch or dinner? Or, you know, or is, is... Do you see a lot of kind of backfill of these households who are, the 17%, are having two shakes a week, need to go to three shakes or four shakes or five shakes?
How do you see that gonna play out over the next few years?
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
I mean, historically, our about 80% of our growth is coming from outside of the category. So, I'm not sure I can tell you. And when I say outside of the category, I mean outside of the Convenient Nutrition category. So, these are people who are trying to make a better decision and trying to be healthier. And so it, you know, whether they drink energy drinks or not, it's just outside of the category. And then, that's, I mean, we believe that there is a ton of upside. I mean, you look at the household penetration of just the category and of liquids or Ready-to-Drink, it's about 45%. You know, bars is about 54, energy drinks is 69%. So, you know, I think that...
Most mature, you know, CPG companies are up in the 80-90, some, some even higher. So we think that there's a ton of room to grow within just adding people, given all the macro trends that are going on around protein is good for you, healthy eating, convenience, and not even to mention, you know, everything going on with GLPs. So we think there's a ton of tailwinds, more people leaning into the category, and we're positioned well.
Bill Chappell (Managing Director)
Okay. And then just second, and I know you've explained this before, but the importance of the Tetra Pak packaging, because I think you just said on the last one, obviously you don't have capacity constraints on the bottles. And so why would not just go all bottles? I mean, help us understand the kind of the importance of that on the packaging and to the brand and to the story.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Well, part of it is just numbers. So if you think of, you know, when I say we don't have capacity constraints on bottles, the overall network of bottles is constrained, but we... I mean, bottles are 10% of our business, so it's virtually-
Bill Chappell (Managing Director)
Right.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
I mean, impossible to convert the entire business to bottles. There just isn't enough. We find that, you know, our consumer really likes the Tetra Pak. Now there are also consumers that like bottles. So I think that it's less about. What's important is what's inside the bottle, what's inside the package. And I think that so it's less about. We will get to—we have invested in our Tetra Pak network, and, you know, I feel like we are in kind of spitting distance to be, you know, unconstrained. Which, you know, I think we expect that by the time we get into 25, we will be managing to a demand number and not a supply number.
So again, you know, I think that they both have their place, but our consumers consistently say that they, they do like the Tetra.
Bill Chappell (Managing Director)
Great. Thanks so much.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Matt McGinley from Needham.
Bryan Spillane (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Great, thank you. With your seasonal flavors in Premier, do you expect to see more seasonal ebbs and flows in TDPs and ACV related to those limited time flavors? And over time, would you expect the shipments related to the seasonal flavors to create a little more seasonality in your sales volumes? Or do you think your core SKUs really just pick up the slack whenever those seasonal flavors get depleted at your customers?
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
... You know, what's great about our seasonal strategy now is we have one for every season. So in essence, it's just a rotating spot, and consumers, you know, get excited. So we basically go from, you know, or beginning at Winter Mint Chocolate to a summer seasonal. It was Root Beer Float, it's now Salted Caramel Popcorn. It then goes into Pumpkin Spice and then rotates around again. So the idea is that we, in essence, always have a seasonal flavor out there, although what that flavor is may change.
Matt McGinley (Managing Director)
Got it. Got it. And last quarter, you noted that your—the biggest factor for you to hit the high end of your guidance would likely be the timing of production. Is the timing or ramp or production capacity still the critical factor to reach the high end of your new guidance? Or is the high end of the guidance now more contingent upon the effectiveness of marketing or promotion that you just might have less visibility into?
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Still production scale-up.
Matt McGinley (Managing Director)
Got it. Thank you very much.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala from Jefferies.
Kaumil Gajrawala (Managing Director)
Any better now? Can you guys hear me now?
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
We can hear you.
Kaumil Gajrawala (Managing Director)
Okay. Sorry about that last time. I want to talk about... You maybe not so quietly been talking about being the powders side. Seems like every time we chat, you're talking about it a little bit more. Can you maybe just talk about the differences in the consumers that you're bringing in on powders, how it interacts with the core product, maybe anything on incrementality? Just any more color there would be helpful.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Yeah, ready-to-drink and powders are very complementary. For the most part, one is a little bit more on the go, being ready-to-drink. The other one, powder, is used mostly in the house. And then just from an occasion standpoint, I talked about the occasion for the most part of ready-to-drink is a breakfast replacement, whereas powders are more used after a workout. The consumer also can be, you know, most powders are going more toward the athlete. However, that's the opportunity for Premier, is really bringing in those mainstream consumers.
The other piece is powders are more often used, with other foods, so making smoothies or throwing it in pancakes to make a high-protein pancake, whereas ready-to-drinks aren't used that way, usually just consumed, you know, right out of the Tetra or the bottle.
Kaumil Gajrawala (Managing Director)
Okay.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
So very complementary.
Kaumil Gajrawala (Managing Director)
Understood. And then on convenience stores, it's been a you know small piece of the rollout store or the distribution story. Have you thought about or are there opportunities to find a DSD partner or some other partner that can really sort of step distribution up in a much more meaningful way?
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Yeah. So convenient, just to put it in perspective, when you look at all of the retail sales of RTDs, the entire category, convenience represents about 10%. So the channels we compete in are around 90% of the retail sales. We still believe that, you know, our, especially food, mass, e-com, are very underdeveloped, and it's also where our target consumer shops. So as we go through all of the opportunities for this brand, we and we rank them, convenience is just lower. It's still an opportunity, but it is just lower. And it's lower because of, A, the size of the opportunity, the cost and the complexity of it. You talked about a DSD partner, which we would, which we would need.
So these are areas where it is in the long-term plan, but we see a lot of other opportunities that are currently bigger and can accomplish all our goals. And like I said, we're already in 90% of the category already.
Kaumil Gajrawala (Managing Director)
Got it. Thank you very much.
Darcy Davenport (President and CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. At this time, I'm showing no further questions. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
