Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- Destocking in bioprocessing is largely complete, with order patterns returning to pre-pandemic levels and orders growing high single digits sequentially. The company expects to exit 2024 with high single-digit or better growth in bioprocessing.
- Non-respiratory reagents grew mid-teens, with virology assays up 20% in Q2. The company continues to expand its installed base and menu at Cepheid, indicating strong growth potential in its Diagnostics segment.
- The company is confident in its portfolio and future growth, choosing to execute share buybacks that generate attractive financial returns, while maintaining a strong bias towards M&A. They believe their adjusted operating margin should be in the low 30% range in a normal environment.
- Broad-based slowdown in China with decreased funnel velocity, leading the company to not expect conversion to orders until 2025, which may impact growth in that market. ,
- Book-to-bill ratio in bioprocessing remains below 1 at 0.9, indicating orders are not keeping pace with sales, and the company needs to maintain this ratio to meet full-year guidance.
- Competitive pricing pressures in bioprocessing are leading to lower price increases, with expectations of about 2.5% price increase for the full year compared to 4-5% in prior years, potentially impacting margins.
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Bioprocessing Recovery and Guidance
Q: How confident are you in bioprocessing recovery and exiting at high single-digit growth?
A: We are confident because destocking is largely behind us, with order patterns returning to pre-pandemic levels. In Q2, our core revenue improved nearly 1,000 basis points from down high teens to down high single digits. Orders grew high single digits sequentially, showing strength in both consumables and equipment. Large customers with on-market drugs continue to grow, and development pipelines, especially Phase III, remain strong. We expect to exit 2024 with high single-digit or better growth. -
China Stimulus Impact
Q: When will China stimulus funding impact orders and revenue?
A: Increased activity levels in our China funnel are due to customers preparing for stimulus funding with shovel-ready projects. However, customers are delaying purchasing decisions as they await financing terms, decreasing funnel velocity. We don't expect this to convert into orders in any meaningful way in 2024; we view that more as a 2025 event. The slowdown is broad-based, particularly affecting our Life Sciences equipment with research and academic focus. -
Capital Allocation and Share Buyback
Q: What's the rationale behind the share buyback, and how does it relate to M&A activity?
A: While we maintain a strong bias towards M&A, in today's environment, the relative value of a buyback generates attractive financial returns. We're buying a great business we know well, confident about its future, while maintaining a meaningful M&A envelope. Our free cash flow is nearly $6 billion, and net leverage is about 2 turns, positioning us well with various alternatives. From a return perspective, we're getting as good of a return, if not better, on the buyback than some current M&A multiples. -
Pricing Environment in Bioprocessing
Q: Are you seeing any changes in the competitive pricing environment?
A: Overall pricing was up 100 basis points in Q2, and for 2024 as a whole, we expect to be a little above our historical average of 75 to 100 basis points. In bioprocessing, we achieved about 2.5% price increase in the quarter, which is a good marker for the full year. We are not seeing significant price pressures from a competitive perspective. -
Sequential Guidance and Seasonality
Q: What's driving the sequential step-down in bioprocessing revenue guidance for Q3?
A: We are returning to normal seasonality patterns, with an expected mid-single-digit sequential decline from Q2 to Q3 in bioprocessing revenue. Prior to the pandemic, we typically saw a mid-single-digit step-down between Q2 and Q3. With destocking largely behind us and order patterns normalizing, we are planning for that seasonal decline in our guide. -
Life Sciences Instruments Outlook
Q: What is the outlook for Life Sciences instruments and the replacement cycle?
A: In Life Sciences, capital equipment remains more constrained, particularly in China, while consumables and services hold up comparatively better. The additional funding and market subsidies during the pandemic pulled forward demand, replacing a lot of equipment. We are now experiencing a normalization period, and the replacement cycle is expected to return to normal by 2025. -
Diagnostics Business Performance
Q: How is the Diagnostics segment performing outside of respiratory testing?
A: We saw mid-single-digit growth in our non-respiratory businesses, with good customer activity globally. At Cepheid, non-respiratory reagents were up mid-teens, with virology assays up 20% in Q2. Beckman Diagnostics grew low single digits, with recurring revenue growing at mid-single digits. The moderation is related to challenging equipment comps, but overall, our Diagnostics businesses are poised well with a full innovation pipeline. -
New Modalities Impact
Q: How are new modalities affecting your bioprocessing business?
A: New modalities are exciting but represent a small part of our business and the overall market. Our business is driven by protein therapies in their various forms. Smaller biotech customers working on advanced modalities have been disproportionately impacted by funding contractions, but that's improving. With our broader portfolio skewed towards commercialized drugs and late-phase therapies, we feel good about our growth expectations. -
Yield Improvements and Capacity in Bioprocessing
Q: How do yield improvements and industry capacity affect your bioprocessing business?
A: Improving customer yields is a focus for us, helping lower manufacturing costs and improve drug accessibility. We don't view yield improvements as an inhibitor to growth; rather, they create opportunity for differentiation. We believe capacity, especially for commercial production and Phase III, needs to increase, and we expect capacity to continue to expand, supporting equipment order growth. -
Book-to-Bill Ratio in Bioprocessing
Q: Has the bioprocessing book-to-bill crossed 1 in Q3?
A: Our book-to-bill is 0.9, and to meet our full-year guidance of bioprocessing being down low single digits, we need to maintain that ratio. This has been consistent in the first half, and we are confident it will continue. The guide assumes that with a 0.9 book-to-bill for the year, we'll exit with high single-digit or better growth. -
Respiratory Testing Trends
Q: What are the expectations for respiratory testing revenue in Q3?
A: We are assuming $200 million of respiratory revenue in Q3 versus $300 million in Q2. This contributes to the step-down in revenue and impacts operating margins, as respiratory has a higher margin profile. -
Capital Equipment Constraints
Q: How are capital equipment sales performing in Life Sciences?
A: Capital equipment is more constrained, particularly in China. Consumables and services are holding up better, but capital equipment remains soft due to customers delaying purchases awaiting stimulus funding. We don't expect significant improvement until 2025. -
M&A Environment
Q: What is holding back M&A activity, and what's your confidence in deploying capital?
A: We like our portfolio and how we're positioned for the future. In today's environment, we observe a disconnect between our trading multiples and current M&A multiples. From a return perspective, the buyback made sense now, but our bias still is towards M&A, and we are confident in deploying capital when conditions are favorable. -
Competitive Positioning in Bioprocessing
Q: How does your bioprocessing business compare to peers who reported declines?
A: Each competitor has different positioning by product category, geography, and customer type. We have one of the broadest and deepest portfolios, both upstream and downstream. While it's hard to have a perfect read across, our business is recovering as expected, and we're confident about the future. -
Operating Margin Expectations
Q: What are your expectations for operating margins moving forward?
A: Over time, we expect 35% to 40% incremental fall-through, and in normal times, our adjusted operating margin should be in the low 30s. We have optimized our cost structure to sustain these margins as we return to growth in bioprocessing.