Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- Disney's studio is refocusing on quality over quantity, reducing volume and emphasizing strong franchises, leading to a robust lineup of upcoming releases including "Moana 2", "Deadpool 3", "Planet of the Apes", and "Mufasa". CEO Bob Iger expressed confidence in the studio's trajectory.
- Disney plans to invest over $40 billion in new parks and attractions, representing 70% of its $60 billion CapEx over the next 10 years, adding capacity across all locations with openings starting in 2025, and building three new cruise ships, indicating significant growth in their experiences business.
- Disney is strategically advancing its sports and streaming businesses, including the launch of a stand-alone ESPN streaming service in August 2025, and forming a sports joint venture with Fox and Warner Bros. Discovery to create a sports-centric streaming bundle, aiming to maintain ESPN's leadership position and attractiveness to advertisers and sports leagues. They also target reaching double-digit margins in streaming, showing confidence in the profitability of their direct-to-consumer businesses.
- Launch of ESPN's standalone streaming service could accelerate cord-cutting, potentially cannibalizing traditional pay TV subscribers and impacting revenue from existing distribution partners. Concerns were raised about how offering ESPN direct-to-consumer might lead to a decrease in traditional subscribers who would save money by switching to the streaming option.
- Recent underperformance in theatrical releases led to lower content sales, licensing, and other revenues, which came in below guidance and prior year figures due to the performance of theatrical titles in the quarter. Additionally, there are no new key theatrical releases in Q2 due to production delays stemming from strikes, which may further impact revenues.
- Hulu Live TV has stopped growing and is being outpaced by competitors like YouTube TV, which is now twice its size. This raises concerns about Hulu Live's competitiveness and its fit into Disney's long-term strategy, especially with plans for direct-to-consumer ESPN and new sports bundles.
-
ESPN's Direct-to-Consumer Strategy
Q: How will ESPN's DTC plans impact cord-cutting and your business?
A: We are launching a new sports service that will be substantially less expensive than the big cable bundle, aiming to attract sports fans who haven't subscribed to pay TV or have left it. We'll get paid in this joint venture at levels commensurate with the multichannel ecosystem, so if consumers shift from traditional pay TV to our DTC service, our revenues remain intact. While there may be minimal economic impact from cord-cutting, we're well-positioned to withstand challenges due to our content's presence on Hulu and Disney+. We see this as low risk and potentially accretive by signing up sports fans who've never subscribed to the bundle or may no longer want it. -
Streaming Profitability Targets
Q: How will you achieve double-digit margins in streaming?
A: Our goal is to build a good business with attractive margins. We'll get there by growing subscribers, implementing some pricing, and gaining leverage from marketing, content, and technology spend. Key drivers include paid sharing initiatives, lower churn through bundling, and international growth opportunities. While we won't specify a time frame, we feel urgency to reach double-digit margins and will operate the business accordingly. -
Hulu's Future and Buyout Timing
Q: How does Hulu Live fit long-term, and when will you resolve Hulu ownership?
A: Hulu Live offers a bundle of channels similar to other services, but the critical part is Hulu itself. The new sports service may compete with Hulu Live, but not with Hulu, which will benefit from bundling with our sports offerings. Regarding Hulu's ownership, the process will take time to value the business, but we expect to have it figured out and closed before the end of the year. -
Capital Expenditure in Parks and Resorts
Q: Can you provide timing and location for the over $40 billion in new parks investments?
A: We're hard at work determining where to place our new investments, and they will benefit every location, including our cruise ships where we're building three more vessels. While we can't provide specific timing, we're already conceiving and building projects that will start opening in 2025, with a cadence of additional capacity every year. -
Paid Sharing Crackdown Impact
Q: Have you sized the number of account borrowers for paid sharing?
A: We've sized it but won't disclose specific numbers. The opportunity is likely similar to what our competitor found. We're taking actions including changes to user agreements and communicating with accounts involved in unpaid sharing. Later this year, account holders can allow additional individuals access for an additional fee. This gives us confidence in our subscriber growth projections.
Research analysts covering Walt Disney.