Diana Shipping - Q1 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello, and welcome to the Diana Shipping Inc. First Quarter 2024 conference call and webcast. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. You may be placed in the question queue at any time by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Ed Nebb, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Ed.

Edward Nebb (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Kevin, and thanks to everyone who is joining us for the Diana Shipping Inc. 2024 first quarter conference call. Leading the call today is Semiramis Paliou, Chief Executive Officer, and she will now introduce the other members of the management team. I will turn the call over to Ms. Paliou.

Semiramis Paliou (CEO)

Thank you, Ed. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Diana Shipping Inc.'s First Quarter 2024 financial results conference call. As I said, I am Semiramis Paliou, the CEO of the company, and it's my pleasure to present alongside our esteemed team, Mr. Stacy Margaronis, Director and President, Mr. Ioannis Zafirakis, Director, CFO, and Chief Strategy Officer, Mr. Lefteris Papatrifon, Director, and Ms. Maria Dede, Chief Accounting Officer. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone to review the forward-looking statements on page four of the accompanying presentation. The first quarter of 2024 started unusually strong, with Capesize earnings being the highest in 14 years and pulling along the other sectors. Even though the market has softened since, the sentiment is still strong for the balance of the year.

In this background, we announce a cash dividend for the first quarter of 2024 of $0.75 per common share. Turning to slide five, I will review with you the company's snapshot as of today. Our fleet comprises of 39 dry bulk vessels in the water, with a total deadweight of approximately 4.4 million tons. The company is also expecting to take delivery of two Methanol Dual Fuel new building Kamsarmax dry bulk vessels. Our fleet utilization has remained consistently high, reaching 99.1% for the first quarter of 2024, attributed to our prudent and efficient management of our vessels. Additionally, as of the end of March, we employed 993 people at sea and the shore. Moving on to slide six, let's go over the key highlights for the first quarter and recent developments.

In February 2024, the company executed the contract for the acquisition of two 81,200 deadweight methanol dual fuel new building Kamsarmax dry bulk vessels built at Tsuneishi Group for a purchase price of $46 million each. These vessels are expected to be delivered to the company in the second half of 2027 and the first half of 2028, respectively. We take pride in our role as an industry leader, continually striving to enhance our fleet and operations for the benefit of our stakeholders and the environment. In addition, the joint venture entity, Windward Offshore, increased its investment from 2-4 high-spec commissioning service operation vessels, CSOVs, to be built at VARD as a result of exercising its option to construct two additional vessels.

The continued participation in this venture is another reflection of the company's commitment to a greener and more sustainable shipping industry. These investments also underscore our focus on seeking new opportunities for the company and our shareholders that may arise from the transition to new energy solutions. Furthermore, continuing the renewal and modernization of our fleet, one vessel has been sold to an unaffiliated third party. m/v Houston was sold at a net sale price of approximately $23.3 million. In December 2023, we completed the pro rata distribution of warrants to holders of the company's common stock, of which, as of May 20, 3,284,372 were exercised. The warrant distribution provided us with an opportunity to raise equity in a non-dilutive manner for our, existing shareholders.

As of May 2024, the company has secured revenue for 66% of the remaining ownership days of the year 2024, amounting to approximately $96.8 million of contracted revenues. Additionally, the company has secured approximately $48.8 million of contracted revenues for the year 2025, representing 18% of the available ownership days for the entire year. Yannis will provide a more detailed analysis of our cash flow generation potential based on the current market environment further on. As mentioned earlier, we are pleased to declare a quarterly cash dividend of $0.075 per common share, totaling approximately $9.1 million.

Finally, we are happy to share that our company has been honored with a Gold Environmental Leader Award and Gold Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Leader Award at the 2024 ESG Shipping Awards International. Moving on to slide seven, let's review a summary of our recent chartering activities. So we have continued to implement our disciplined chartering strategy by securing profitable time charters for four vessels since our last earnings presentation in February 2024. To provide some detail, we have chartered 1 Ultramax vessel with a weighted average daily rate of $16,500 for an average period of 452 days.

Additionally, two Panamax vessels have been chartered at a weighted average daily rate of $14,573 per day for an average period of 472 days, and one Capesize vessel has been chartered with an average daily rate of $27,150 and a remaining average period of 543 days. Slide eight illustrates our commitment to strategically charter our vessels in a staggered manner. Our emphasis is on securing positive free cash flows through our disciplined employment strategy and positioning ourselves in a balanced way to participate in the market efficiently. I will now pass the floor to loannis to provide a more detailed analysis for our financials.

Ioannis Zafirakis (CFO and Chief Strategy Officer)

Thank you, Semiramis. As you can see in this simplified slide simplified call from the previous one, the time charter revenues for the first quarter of 2024 were in the vicinity of $58 million, compared to $52.56 million in the same quarter previous year. Our EBITDA also was at $27.8 million, compared to $45.9 million, and the net income stood at $2.1 million, compared to $22 million at the first quarter of 2023. This is why the earnings per common share on a diluted basis is at 0.01 at $0.01, compared to $0.22 in the same quarter last year.

However, the cash position of our company, together with the restricted cash, is at $100 million, and the long-term, debt and finance, liabilities is at $628 million, compared to $642 million at the same quarter the previous year. Looking at the summary of the selected financial and other data, I think, what we should look at is that the number of vessels has decreased to 39.7, the average from 41.5, and the same applies for the ownership days, which is slightly lower than the previous same quarter last year. So our time charter equivalent is at $15,000 approximately, compared to 18.5 at the same quarter of the previous year.

Daily operating expenses, this, they are at $5,800 approximately, compared to $5,400. This is a particular trend for this quarter we do not expect to continue for the other quarters, and the average for the year probably is going to be lower. If we move to the other slide, which has the amortization profile and the balance profile of our debt, you can see clearly that the company has managed very well the facilities, and we have no maturities for the remaining of 2024, the entire 2025, and we have the bond maturing in 2026 only.

And, looking at the balance profile at the bottom, you can see how well positioned the company is as regards the remaining amount of debt going forward. Very well balanced and controlled. The break-even rate of ours, you can see that there is the ability of the company based on the unfixed days that we have to improve our revenues and end up with around $4 million above our break-even for the remaining of 2024. And, for 2025, based on the existing FFAs, this can be close to $14 million. There is a leeway on a per day basis for 2025, close to $1,000.

Of course, all of these are based on the current FFA curve. Something that we need to point out, something that we keep forgetting mentioning to our shareholders is how well we did as regards with the dividends that we paid since the third quarter of 2021. We have managed to pay around $2.56 per share, either as a cash dividend or dividend in kind. Of course, the $0.075 that we are paying now is a continuation of that particular policy. With that, I will pass the floor to Stacy Margaronis for the dry bulk market overview. Stacy?

Anastasios C. Margaronis (President)

Thank you, Yanni. A warm welcome to the participant of this quarterly earnings call of our company. If we cast our sights back to the beginning of the year, the bulk carrier market has so far been strong compared to 2023 and its ten-year earnings average. The Clarksons average bulk sector earnings were $15,500 per day from January through the end of April, and above $17,500 a day by mid-May. The main factors supporting this strength were firstly, the demand growth in the Atlantic for cargo such as iron ore from Brazil and bauxite from Guinea. Secondly, the Red Sea disruption, which increased the ton mile demand through alternative routing, about 0.7% for Capesize and 2.9% for Kamsarmaxes and smaller.

Thirdly, the Panama Canal restrictions due to low water levels have again increased ton miles. Increased demand for shipments of bulk commodities to India and China. Related, in some cases, contributing to the above mentioned factors were the following events: We saw a return of growth of steel production outside China, a return of growth in global grain trade, and finally, China's contraction of domestic coal production. Government decisions also influence rates in less direct ways. An example is the recent announcement that the Chinese government will spend $42 billion to buy unsold homes. A remarkable decision, impossible to imagine happening outside China, which will have a profound effect on the absorption of the huge surplus of residences remaining unsold following the building boom of a few years ago.

In this short presentation, we will try to establish which of the above factors will continue supporting the bulk market, which might drop out, and which new ones might emerge due to seasonal and other factors. The Panama Canal restriction is the most likely factor to drop out of the list over the short to medium term, while the Red Sea disruption remains a wild card. Meanwhile, continued demand for bulk commodities from China and India will depend on factors that we mentioned later on. Looking quickly at macroeconomic factors, GDP growth forecast for major economies have not changed much since our last report. According to the April 2024, I beg your pardon, the forecast of the IMF, world GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% this year, and in 2025, the same rate.

Which with China growing by 4.6% this year and 4.1% in 2025. India by 6.8% this year and 6.5% next year, and the U.S. by 2.7% this year and 1.9% in 2025. The Euro area is expected to grow by just 0.8% this year and by 1.5% in 2025. Let's look at demand now. It is encouraging to note that according to Commodore Research, year-on-year steel production outside China remains strong for this year and is expected to continue showing strength as GDP growth increases. Global steel production last year was just under 1.9 billion tons, up 0.1%, while Chinese steel production shrank by about 1% during that period.

Strong manufacturing output in China has continued to contribute to significant steel consumption to help counter weakness in demand from the construction industry. The iron ore trade is expected to increase this year by 1% and remain stable in 2025. Brazilian exports are expected to grow by 5% this year and reach nearly 400 million tons, and Australian exports are expected to remain flat. Coal exports, both coking and steaming coal combined, are expected to show very small increases with China, India, Indonesia, Europe, and Australia, each having their effect on total shipments, which are expected to reach about 1.3 billion metric tons. Chinese demand will slow down and European demand will continue to decline. In China, hydropower production is starting to increase rapidly, and at the same time, China's coal-derived electricity generation growth has continued to exceed domestic coal output growth.

India is expected to import record volumes of coal as electricity demand is once again outpacing domestic coal production growth. Grain exports are expected to grow by 3% this year and the next, reaching about 559 million metric tons during the next grain season. Soybeans from the U.S. to China will be negatively affected due to better priced products from Argentina and Brazil. Minor bulk trades are expected to grow by 4% this year and 3% in 2025, reaching 2,284 million metric tons. As we know well, this trade is highly correlated to global GDP growth. Bauxite and other metals such as nickel, manganese ore, and scrap are expected to play a major role in supporting the increased trade going forward.

Their shipments are expected to increase by 6% this year and by 4% in 2025. Soy meal, rice, and fertilizers are expected to show strong volume gains as well. Most of the above-mentioned commodities are shipped in Ultramax sections, such as those in our fleet. Turning to the supply side, according to Clarksons, the new building order book remains low at around 9.3% of the existing fleet. In the Cape sector, the ships on order are about 6.2% of the existing fleet. For Panamax, Kamsarmaxes, it stands at 12.6%, and for Handymaxes, around 11% of the fleet. New building contracting of bulk carriers this year is about 130 vessels, according to Clarksons, which is 44% fewer than at this time last year.

Considering expected deletions and additions to the fleet, the Cape fleet should increase by 1.5% this year and by only 1% in 2025. The Panamax and Kamsarmax fleet is expected to grow by 3.5% this year and by 3% in 2025. The equivalent numbers for Handymaxes are 4% for 2024 and 3.3% for 2025. Looking to the end of this year, demand for bulk carriers is expected to be 3.6% higher than in 2023, and supply of bulkers is expected to be 3% higher than last year. Look at the fleet age structure. Looking at the age of the bulk carrier fleet, 25% of Handymaxes are 15 years or older, while for Panamax, this percentage goes to 27%, and for Capes it is 16%.

Any weakness in earnings going forward will most certainly lead a number of these aging ships to the scrapyard. Looking at the age structure of the fleet, it is interesting to keep in mind that a significant number of large bulk carriers will become 15 years old in 2026 and will face their first Special Survey. Their future will much depend on their condition and how environmentally friendly they can become with retrofits and other interventions. Undoubtedly, another pool for potential scrap candidates, depending on then prevailing market conditions. About 25% of the bulker fleet capacity are estimated to have a D or E rating for CII as of the end of 2023. So as mentioned earlier, slower operating speed, increased ESG retrofitting, some demolition of the older units, and increasingly clear markets are factors that will influence the freight market going forward. Turning to demolition.

According to Clarksons, 5.4 million deadweight worth of bulkers were scrapped in 2023, and so far, 1.5 million deadweight has been scrapped this year, still on par with last year. For 2025, this is expected to increase to about 7 million deadweight tons. This year, about 1.8 million deadweight of Capesize vessels are expected to be scrapped and about 2.4 million deadweight in 2025. Panamax and Kamsarmax are expected to be scrapped in the tune of about 2.5 million deadweight this year and 3.7 next. A look at asset values. Newbuilding prices, according to Clarksons, have increased by 3% this year, with Newcastlemax prices having gone up by 6% and Ultramax newbuilding prices having gone up by 3%.

Smaller ship prices have been more or less steady. Secondhand ship prices have been going up across the board, particularly since early this year. The 3-month trend for 5-year-old Capes is up 12%, and for older 10-year-old ships, as much as 21%. For Kamsarmax, prices of 5-year-old vessels have increased by 9% and 10-year-old ships by 14%. We have witnessed similar increases in the prices of secondhand Ultramax. Finally, let's look at the outlook. Apart from unexpected factors such as adverse weather, which can have a negative effect on the supply-demand balance of bulkers, we are cautious about 2025. We agree with Clarksons that the bulk carrier sector supply-demand balance initially appears somewhat softer in 2025, which could lead to a softer freight market.

Dry bulk demand is expected to increase by about 1.6% in ton miles, assuming Red Sea disruption has eased by the end of this year. Meanwhile, fleet growth is expected to come in at around 2.5% in 2025. Even slower operating speeds, increased ESG refitting, increased demolition of older units will all influence the market in 2025, hopefully counterbalancing this negative effect of surplus tonnage mentioned above. So to summarize, we should be focusing on the following positive and negative factors, which may affect the dry bulk industry over the next few quarters. On the positive side, relatively low new building order book with deliveries spread over the next four years....

Secondly, continued sailing restrictions in the Panama Canal, Red Sea risks of attack, increasing ton-mile demand, China's contraction of domestic coal production, an increase in congestion, even slower operating speeds, and continued growth in Asia outside China. On the negative side, we have to look for new, new geopolitical disruptions in and tight monetary policies leading to a worldwide recession. Secondly, reversal of higher congestion trends, easing of tensions in the Middle East, allowing again free and safe transit through the Red Sea. A large increase in new building ordering due to excessive optimism, and finally, development of a trade war between major trading nations such as the U.S. and China. At this point, I will pass the call to our CEO, Semiramis Paliou, for the highlights of our company's business strategy going forward.

Semiramis Paliou (CEO)

Thank you, Stacy. Before we open the call up to our questions and answers session, I would like to summarize the key points from today's presentation. We adhere to our strategy of providing relative stability in a cyclical business and aiming to maximize long-term shareholder value. A cornerstone for executing this strategy is the prudent and active management of our balance sheet. We are continuously renewing and modernizing our fleet and enhancing our ecological footprint with greener investments. This aligns with our commitment to sustainability and environmental responsibility. Our focus is on generating and securing positive free cash flows. We also remain committed to rewarding our shareholders with attractive cash and in-kind dividends whenever possible. Lastly, we're keeping abreast of developments in the shipping and energy sectors for potential attractive opportunities presented to us.

With that, thank you all for joining us today, and we look forward to addressing your questions during the Q&A session.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to be placed into question queue, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing star one. Once again, that's star one to be placed into question queue. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Once again, that's star one to be placed into question queue. We've reached the end of our question and answer session. I'll turn the floor over to management for any further closing comments.

Semiramis Paliou (CEO)

Okay, well, with that, I would like to thank you again, and we look forward to catching up on our next call with our next financial results. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.