Diana Shipping - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Transcript

Speaker 0

Thank you for standing by. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Diana Shipping Inc conference call on the third quarter 2025 financial results. We are joined by the company's Chief Executive Officer, Ms. Semiramis Paliou. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a Q&A session. To ask a question, press star then one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. Please note that this conference is being recorded. We now turn the floor over to Ms. Semiramis Paliou. Please go ahead.

Semiramis Paliou (CEO)

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Diana Shipping Inc's third quarter 2025 financial results conference call. I'm Semiramis Paliou, the CEO of the company, and it's my pleasure to present alongside our esteemed team, Mr. Stacy Margaronis, Director and President, Mr. Ioannis Zafirakis, Director, Co-CFO, and Chief Strategy Officer, Mr. Eleftherios Papatrifon, Director, and Ms. Maria Dede, Co-CFO. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone to review the forward-looking statement on page four of the accompanying presentation. The dry bulk market posted a solid performance in Q3. Cape, once again, has performed especially towards the end of the quarter. Yet, after a lackluster first half of the year, we finally saw some tailwinds in the Panamax sector. The main reason for this was the fact that China imported no soybeans from the U.S.

In September, which marked the first time since November 2018 that shipments fell to zero. This impact was somewhat offset by the fact that South American shipments surged from a year earlier, therefore increasing turn miles and providing upward pressure on the Panamax sector. Overall, bulk carrier markets picked up after a softer first half of 2025 due to a record September for Chinese imports reaching 200 million metric tons. Subsequently, Q3 achieved record Chinese imports of nearly 580 million metric tons. The quarter also saw continuing war-related activity in both the Red Sea and the Black Sea. This situation remains volatile, and avoidance of the area is likely to continue.

Because of the Capesize resilience and the improvement in the smaller sizes, we were able to secure several charters across all segments in the fleet at higher levels than previously, and again at a considerable premium over the spot market. Turning to slide five, let's review our company snapshot as of today. Diana Shipping Inc, founded in 1972 and listed on the New York Stock Exchange since 2005, operates a fleet of 36 dry bulk vessels, one of which is mortgage-free. Our fleet has an average age of just under 12 years and a total deadweight capacity of approximately 4.1 million tons. We anticipate the delivery of two methanol dual-fuel new-building Kamsarmax dry bulk vessels at the end of 2027 and early 2028, respectively. Fleet utilization reached 99.5% for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting our effective vessel management strategy.

As of the end of September, we employed 960 individuals at sea and the shore. Financially, our net debt stands at 54% of market value, supported by $140 million in cash reserves as of quarter end and total secured revenues of approximately $150 million as of November 12. Moving on to slide six, let's go over the key highlights from the second quarter and recent developments. In June, continuing the renewal and modernization of our fleet, we announced the sale of motor vessel Selina for a purchase price of approximately $11.8 million before commission. She was delivered to her new owners in July 2025. In September, we signed a term loan facility with National Bank of Greece, secured by five vessels, and drew down $55 million. In September, we released the company's 2024 ESG report, highlighting our ESG strategy and commitment to sustainable practices.

You can find a copy of that on our website. As of September 29, 2025, we have acquired 14.9% of Genco Shipping & Trading Limited issued and outstanding common shares. As of November 12, 2025, we have secured $25.4 million of contracted revenues for 87% of the remaining ownership days of the year 2025 and have secured $118 million of contracted revenues for 50% of the ownership days of the year 2026. Finally, we are pleased to declare a quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per common share with respect to the third quarter of 2025, totaling approximately $1.16 million. Slide seven summarizes our recent chartering activity.

From July 1st, 2025, until November 12th, 2025, we have secured time charters for 14 vessels, six Ultramax vessels at an average daily rate of $13,800 for an average of 333 days, for Panamax, Kamsarmax, and Post-Panamax vessels at an average daily rate of $12,900 for an average of 331 days, and for Cape and Newcastlemax vessels at an average of $24,500 for an average of 380 days. Slide eight highlights our disciplined chartering strategy. We focus on staggered medium to long-term charters to avoid clustered maturities, ensuring earnings visibility and resilience against market downturns. This disciplined chartering strategy has secured approximately $149 million in contracted revenues, resulting in an average time charter rate of $16,200 per day, with an average contract duration of one year and 1.17 years. For the rest of 2025, only 13% of days remain unfixed.

Now I'll pass the floor to our Co-CFO, Maria Dede, for a more detailed financial analysis.

Maria Dede (Co-CFO)

Thanks, Semiramis. Good morning and welcome to all. I will begin with an overview of our financial performance for the third quarter and the nine-month period ending September 30, 2025, followed by a discussion of our capital structure, break-even analysis, and dividend policy. We start with the financial highlights for the third quarter of 2025. Time charter revenues were $51.9 million, slightly lower than $57.5 million in the same quarter last year. This decline reflects the sale of two vessels earlier this year and one vessel in September 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was $20.3 million compared to $23.7 million in the third quarter last year, consistent with the smaller fleet. Net income, however, nearly doubled to $7.2 million from $3.7 million in the third quarter of 2024.

This was driven by lower expenses and the $10.6 million gain from the valuation of our investment in Genco, partly offset by a loss in ocean value. Diluted earnings per common share were $0.05, up from zero in the third quarter of 2024. On the balance sheet, cash decreased to $133.9 million as of September 30, 2025, from $207.2 million as of December 31st, 2024. This reduction reflects cash deployed in strategic investments during this nine-month period, including $103.5 million paid for the acquisition of 14.93% ownership interest in Genco, $23 million invested in share repurchases of our common stock, and $12 million invested in Wingwood and Echo Gulf, two of our equity method investments. To strengthen liquidity, we sold two of our older vessels in the fleet, generating approximately $23 million, and drew down $55 million under a new loan facility with National Bank of Greece.

By optimizing capital through vessel sales and the new loan, we strengthened liquidity while fine-tuning our fleet for efficiency. As a result, long-term debt increased slightly to $651.1 million as of September 30, 2025, from $637.5 million at year-end 2024. Operationally, this quarter was smooth with no surprises and with results reflecting the smaller fleet. During the quarter, we operated an average of 36.2 vessels compared to 38.7 vessels in the same quarter last year, following the sale of Houston in September 2024, Artemis in March, and Selina in July 2025. This reduction affected ownership, available, and operating days. Time charter equivalent averaged $15,178 per day, a 1% decrease compared to $15,333 per day in the third quarter last year due to softer charter rates. Fleet utilization remained strong at 99.4%.

Vessel operating expenses for the quarter decreased by 6% to $20 million compared to $21.2 million in the third quarter last year due to the smaller fleet size. On a per share basis, daily operating expenses rose 1% to $6,014 compared to $5,964 last year, mainly due to higher crew costs. For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, time charter revenues dropped by 6% to $161.5 million, from $171.1 million for the same period last year. Net income surged to $14.7 million compared to $3 million in the same period last year, an increase driven by non-operating gains compared to losses in the same period last year and the absence of debt extinguishment losses seen in 2024. Time charter equivalent improved to $15,473 per day compared to $15,162 per day in the same period last year. Fleet utilization remained high at 99.5%.

Daily operating expenses for the nine-month period rose slightly to $5,941 compared to $5,910 for the same period last year, again due to higher crew costs. The average age of our fleet is approximately 12 years. In the next slide, you can see our debt structure and our amortization schedule. We maintain a disciplined approach to leverage. Our debt structure includes both fixed and variable-rate instruments, with projected loan balances declining steadily through 2032. Our $175 million senior unsecured bonds and other loan maturities coming due in 2029 and beyond will be addressed well in advance to ensure liquidity stability and minimize the financing risk. In the next slide, we compare our free cash flow break-even levels against estimated revenues for the remainder of 2025 and 2026. As of September 30, 2025, our cash flow break-even rate stood at $16,806 per day.

For the remainder of 2025, potential revenues, including estimated revenues for the unfixed days based on FSAAs, could reach $29.1 million at an estimated average time charter rate of $16,189 per day. For 2026, potential revenues could reach $224.7 million at an average time charter rate of $17,102 per day. While projected revenues for 2025 may not fully cover break-even, the outlook for 2026 looks positive, supporting a return to cash flow profitability. This slide highlights dividend distributions. Since the third quarter of 2021, the company has consistently delivered quarterly dividends in both cash and shares. In line with this policy, we declared a dividend of 1% per share for the third quarter of 2025, bringing cumulative dividends paid since 2021 to $2.69 per common share. In summary, despite a smaller fleet, we delivered strong profitability, optimized our capital structure, and maintained high operational efficiency.

Our liquidity actions and proactive debt management provide resilience and flexibility for future opportunities. I will now hand over to Stacy Margaronis, who will provide an overview of the dry bulk market.

Stacy Margaronis (Director and President)

Thank you, Maria, and welcome to the participants of this latest quarterly earnings call of Diana Shipping Inc. Starting with the geopolitical and trade developments in bulk shipping, the bulk carrier market has weathered well the continuous announcements of new tariffs as well as several changes in the U.S. tariff regime with its trading partners. As of November 18, the 12-month time charter rate for a typical Cape without scrubbers stood at around $24,000 a day. The equivalent rate for a Kamsarmax was $15,600 per day, and for an Ultramax, about $15,900 per day. All these rates were up on the levels we saw at the beginning of the year and from three months ago. On November 19, the BCI stood at 3,636, and the Baltic Panamax Index at 1,895.

In the meantime, the 5TC route weighted time charter average for Cape stood at $30,154 per day, while the Panamax 5TC route average rate stood at $17,057 per day. As a result, sentiment remains high, and some new building orders are already appearing across the size spectrum, most of them for ships with deliveries from 2028 onwards. As mentioned by Clarkson, the recently announced U.S.-China trade war troops include the U.S. pledge to reduce tariffs on imports from China from 30% to 20%, the resumption of China's purchases of U.S. soybeans, the rollback of China's export restrictions on rare earths, and most notably, the suspension for a year of the introduction of the USTR's port fees and reciprocal port fees for some U.S.-linked vessels entering China.

According to Komodo Research, the purchase of U.S. soybeans by China represents a supporting factor for mid-size bulkers for the rest of the year and into 2026. Exports to China will be much stronger over the next few months, and this will be a very helpful tailwind for the dry bulk carrier market. This is according to Clarkson, even though China had earlier this year sourced soybeans for purchase to replace U.S. produce from Brazil, which involved a longer laden voyage than from the U.S. Lower volumes, though, were shipped, which can be partly explained by the fact that China has been relying on the drawing down of elevated domestic stocks. In the next slide, we look at the macroeconomic developments and considerations. Economies around the world are showing signs of a relatively steady growth going forward.

Latest growth forecasts provided by the IMF and the OECD predict growth in Chinese GDP at around 4.8% this year and 4.2% in 2026. The equivalent figures for India are 6.6% and 6.2%. For the U.S., 2% for this year and 2.1% for 2026. For the euro area, 1.2% this year and about the same for next year. For the world, the figures stand at 3.2% for this year and 3.1% in 2026. Let's look at the main commodities now that are being shipped in bulk. Global steel production, according to Braemar, is down by 1.2% year to date, at 1.373 billion metric tons. This has been having its effect on demand for metallurgical coal and iron ore. Chinese steel product exports are increasing strongly by over 5% year-on-year so far, which could help partially explain the continued demand by China for iron ore.

Braemar reports that it is heavy engineering and ambitious investments in energy and industrial parks driven by AI that will probably support steel demand in China going forward, as opposed to traditional construction demand on real estate and infrastructure projects. For iron ore, Clarkson predicts a slight increase of about 1% per annum in total imports at 1.621 billion tons for 2026. The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea has exports starting this month, and volumes are expected to build up from this year to 2028. Long-haul exports to China should support online demand. However, Clarkson reminds us that uncertainty remains around how the iron ore market will absorb the new volume going forward.

For coal, we have coking coal shipments, which are expected to remain more or less flat in 2026 and 2027, with support coming mainly from Indian demand as domestic coking coal reserves deplete and steel production keeps increasing. Thermal coal shipments are expected to go down by between 3% and 1% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Coal imports to China have continued to go down, about 10% so far this year, with demand being partially satisfied by imports from Mongolia and produce from domestic mines. Indian imports are projected to drop by 6% in 2025 due to increased domestic production. In the medium term, demand will pick up as new thermal energy capacity outpaces domestic mining outputs. For grain exports, according to Clarkson's Seabourn grain trade, it is expected to grow by 2% in 2025 and by about the same in 2026 to reach 566 million tons.

Brazilian grain exports and increased soybean exports from the U.S. should keep supporting this trend, hopefully well into 2027. As regards the minor bulk trades, according to Clarkson, these trades are expected to grow by about 4% this year and by a further 2% year-on-year in 2026 at 2.4 billion metric tons. Approximately similar growth rates are expected for 2027, depending on key macroeconomic trends and geopolitical tensions. Bauxite, cement, seed products, and forest products are expected to be the main commodities shipped in large volumes going forward. Turning to the next slide on tonnage supply, according to Clarkson, the bulk carrier fleet is forecast to grow by 3.1% this year and by 3.4% in 2026. For Cape, the projected tonnage increase is for only 1.4% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026. For Panamaxes, the fleet projected increase is 3.5% this year and 4.6% in 2026.

According to Braemar, the bulk carrier fleet order book stands at 106.2 million deadweight tons, which represents 10.9% of the existing fleet. This total is made up of 37.8 million deadweight worth of Capes, which is about 9.3% of the fleet, 38.2 million deadweight of Panamax Kamsarmaxes, about 14.1% of the fleet, and 28.4 million deadweight in Handymaxes, which are about 11.2% of the fleet. For Capes, the order book is certainly manageable going forward, and so it is for Handymax. The Panamax fleet, where the order book is higher, includes, however, 467 ships dated from 2005 and earlier. On the recycling side, according to Clarkson's, the recycling market has been dominated for most of the year by low activity and cautious sentiment. Softening steel prices, particularly in India, have dampened the appetite for tonnage by major scrap buyers.

The average price for a hand-sized bulker offered for demolition has dropped to around $400 per light-ton displacement. The forecast for dry bulk carrier demolition trades this year is for about 4.6 million deadweight tons for 5.3 million in 2026 and about 7 million in 2027, when various regulations and aging of large sections of the bulk carrier fleet take their toll. The average age of dry bulk demolition candidates has gone up from 25.2 years in 2015 to 29.3 years in 2025. Turning to asset prices now, as Hartland Shipping Services points out, the combination of less ordering this year and more potential output at yards may have implied a crash in new building prices. This has not occurred.

New building prices have softened during the last quarter by just 1% and by between 3%-4% year-on-year across the size spectrum, with Cape new buildings being quoted at around $73 million, Kamsarmaxes at around $36.25 million, and Ultramaxes for 2028 delivery at around $33.25 million. Second-hand bulk prices have crept up during the last quarter. The price of a five-year-old Cape has moved up by about 4% to $65 million, a Newcastlemax at around $72 million, and Kamsarmaxes of the same vintage have also gone up by 4% to $33 million, while Ultramax prices have increased to $32 million. Finally, let's look at the outlook for our industry. According to Clarkson, 2025 should prove to be a slightly softer year for bulk carrier earnings than 2024, with the fleet projected to grow by 3% and demand by not much more than 1%.

As Clarkson also points out, dry bulk trends have firmed in recent months amid a rebound in the coal trade and strong iron ore, bauxite, and grain export volume. In a nutshell, dry bulk demand trends have firmed in recent months. Looking out to 2026, Clarkson sees the base Cape outlook of another moderate year for bulk carrier earnings, possibly late 2025 level. Dry bulk trade is currently projected to grow by about 2% in some miles, slightly below fleet growth of about 3%. Markets could be balanced with support from special surveys and falling vessel speed. The Capesize market is expected to outperform the smaller segments. Looking further ahead, projections are much less reliable, even though the supply-demand numbers for 2027 are similar to those of 2026.

Factors such as Chinese demand trends, the impact of environmental policy, Red Sea danger zone development, and demolition trends will continue to influence the supply-demand balance going forward. In the last slide, slide 18, we can have a quick look on factors which, according to analysts, are going to affect the market on the positive and the negative side. On the positive side, we have strong South American grain exports and increased soybean exports from the U.S. to China. We have a gradual resolution of reciprocal tariffs between the U.S. and its trading partners. Red Sea rerouting is expected to continue for the rest of the year and well into 2026. Strong steel product exports by China and the commencement of iron ore shipments from Simandou in Guinea. On the negative side, though, we have worldwide lower steel production that's outside India.

Bulk carrier fleet growth is outpacing demand for both this year and next, less so in the Cape sector. Increase in wind, nuclear, and solar power production, particularly in China. Anticipated long-term reduction in coal imports by China and possible failure in trade talks between the U.S. and the trading partners, leading to higher tariffs and trade disruption. On this note, I will pass the call to our CEO, Semiramis Paliou, for some important takeaway points from this earnings call. Thank you.

Semiramis Paliou (CEO)

Thank you, Stacy. Before concluding today's presentation, I'd like to highlight our ongoing ESG initiatives. Diana Shipping Inc is committed to promoting eco-friendly technologies and modernizing our fleet, transparently sharing emission data to ensure accountability, building on partnerships and collaborations to advance our sustainability goals, and developing an equitable, diverse, and inclusive program while continuously investing in our people.

In summary, moving on to slide 20, Diana Shipping Inc stands on a strong foundation built on over 50 years of industry experience and 20 years on the New York Stock Exchange. It is a seasoned management team adept to addressing industry challenges, has a strong stakeholder relationship and a disciplined strategic approach, a solid balance sheet with a strong cash position and account cyclical mindset, and an ongoing fleet modernization effort, a focus on rewarding our shareholders when possible, and a strong ESG strategy. With that, thank you for joining us today. We now look forward to addressing your questions during the Q&A session.

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys.

If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Again, it is star, then one to ask a question. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Kristoffer Barth with Arctic Securities. Please go ahead.

Kristoffer Barth (Equity Research Analyst)

Hello, good afternoon, and thank you for the presentation. How should we think about your quite significant stake in Genco now? Is there any sort of dialogue with the board? You previously mentioned that the holding is of a strategic character, but I mean, they tightened the poison pill with the 15% threshold now recently. How does that impact your thoughts on sort of further dialogue here? If you are just sort of opting for a passive stake, would you consider a board seat?

Ioannis Zafirakis (Director, Co-CFO, and CSO)

Hi, Kristoffer.

This is Ioannis Zafirakis speaking. As we have said in the past, our position in Genco has a strategic value. Nevertheless, we are observing at the moment, and we are examining our various options on what to do and how to do it. We are not in contact with the current management of Genco, and we are observing the development.

Kristoffer Barth (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you very much, Ioannis. Just a second question for me, if that's okay. Can you just comment a bit around the recent development in OceanPal? Do you still have a holding there, and what's the percent if that's the case?

Ioannis Zafirakis (Director, Co-CFO, and CSO)

Diana Shipping's interest in OceanPal is very minimal after the latest raising of equity that they did, the one before the Sovereign one. It is certainly not material at this stage, so there is nothing to comment.

Kristoffer Barth (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, thank you very much.

That's it for me.

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ms. Semiramis Paliou for any closing remarks.

Semiramis Paliou (CEO)

Thank you for joining us for Diana's third quarter 2025 financial results. We look forward to presenting to you again in the next quarter. Thank you.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.