DTE Energy Company - Q4 2025
February 17, 2026
Transcript
Operator (participant)
At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Matt Krupinski, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Matt Krupinski (Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before we get started, I'd like to remind you to read the safe harbor statement on page two of the presentation, including the reference to forward-looking statements. Our presentation also includes references to operating earnings, which is a non-GAAP financial measure. Please refer to the reconciliation of GAAP earnings to operating earnings provided in the appendix. With us this morning are Joi Harris, President and CEO, and Dave Ruud, CFO. Now I'll turn it over to Joi to start our call this morning.
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm happy to be with you today, and I'm excited to talk about a very successful 2025 and our strong position for 2026 and beyond, all driven by our team's commitment to delivering best-in-class results for all of our stakeholders. In 2025, we remained sharply focused on improving reliability, executing on our growth plan, and achieving solid financial results while maintaining our commitment to affordability for our customers, and I'm proud to say we've delivered exceptional results across all of these priorities. We achieved significant improvements in reliability and have made substantial progress with data centers by executing our first large agreement for 1.4 GW, which will provide significant affordability benefits to our customers.
We're making great progress in advancing our next data center opportunity and are expecting to reach final terms of the agreement in the coming weeks, representing significant upside to our current five-year plan. We are very excited about this opportunity and look forward to providing more details as this project progresses. We had another strong financial year, earning $7.36 per share in 2025, which is above the high end of our guidance range for the year. We are well positioned to continue solid financial performance in 2026. Our 2026 guidance reflects operating EPS growth of 6%-8% over our 2025 guidance midpoint, and we are confident in our ability to deliver at the higher end of the range, driven by RNG tax credits at DTE Vantage.
As we described on the third quarter earnings call, our updated plan includes significant increases in customer-focused utility investment and delivers 6%-8% operating EPS growth through 2030. Again, we are confident we will reach the high end of our guidance range each year, driven by RNG tax credits and the flexibility they provide. And as we have said, we expect additional data center opportunities to provide significant upside to our capital plan, with an additional 3 GW of data center load in advanced discussions. Let me move to slide 5 to highlight our improvements in reliability and the execution of our cleaner energy transition. I'm very proud that over the past year, we continued to deliver meaningful improvements in system reliability for our customers, driven by disciplined strategic investments, impactful process improvements, and more favorable weather conditions.
As a result, we achieved our best all-weather SAIDI performance in nearly 20 years, with a nearly 90% reduction in average outage duration compared to 2023. When storms did occur, our teams executed exceptionally well, restoring power to 99.9% of impacted customers within 48 hours. These results demonstrate that we are firmly on track to meet our long-term reliability goals, reducing the number of power outages by 30% and cutting outage duration in half by 2029. We are confident that we will achieve these reliability goals due to the continued execution of our focused four-point plan. First, we are quickly transitioning to a smarter grid by significantly increasing the technology on our system with more than 2,200 smart devices across our distribution circuits, as we remain on track to effectively automate our entire system by 2029.
Secondly, we are aggressively updating our existing infrastructure, replacing and upgrading poles, cross arms, transformers, and other pole top and substation equipment. The third focus is to rebuild significant portions of our grid. Prioritizing the oldest sections that are most vulnerable have made a significant impact. Customers have experienced a 90% increase in reliability where we have executed this work. And finally, we remain heavily focused on our tree trim efforts. We have trimmed over 40,000 miles of trees since 2015, as this remains one of the most effective methods to improve reliability. We are undertaking these intensive, focused efforts to enhance our system so we can deliver for our customers, and we are seeing the results that demonstrate these investments work. We have also made tremendous progress advancing our transition to cleaner energy.
Last year, we placed 330 MW of solar projects in service, with an additional 745 MW currently under construction. Today, we have approximately 2,500 MW of renewable generation online, advancing our sustainability objectives and delivering lasting value for our customers. We have a number of major projects that are on track to be completed this year, including our 220-MW battery storage project located at the site of our former Trenton Channel Power Plant. We will also be completing the Bell River Power Plant conversion in 2026, converting it from burning coal to a 1,300-MW natural gas peaking resource.... I am fully confident in our ability to successfully execute the significant renewable investments included in our five-year plan.
We will build around 900 MW of renewables on average per year over the next five years, and our team has built an extensive development pipeline to support this growth. We have solid land positions and deep experience moving these projects through the interconnection and permitting processes. Importantly, we have been able to safe harbor investment tax credits through 2029 to support more affordable investments for our customers. Let me move to slide six to provide more details on our long-term plan. We increased our five-year capital investment plan by $6.5 billion compared to the prior plan, driven by investments for the first data center project and the continued need to modernize our utility assets. These additional investments are strategically focused to support data center load growth, advanced cleaner generation, and to enhance distribution infrastructure that will drive continued improvements and reliability.
As I mentioned, we have additional data center opportunities beyond the initial 1.4 GW. We are in advanced discussions with hyperscalers for over 3 GW of new load, and we have a pipeline of 3-4 GW behind that. We also expect longer-term growth opportunities through the expansion of these initial hyperscaler projects. The generation investments needed to support these additional opportunities will be additive to our current five-year plan, providing significant incremental capital investments above the existing plan. I'll move to slide seven to detail our progress on data center development. As I mentioned, we executed and received MPS approval for the contract supporting 1.4 GW of new data center load, and construction has started. This is an important step in our growth strategy and a benefit to our customers.
These contracts include provisions that will protect existing customers, including a 19-year power supply contract with minimum monthly charges and a 15-year energy storage contract. The load will ramp over two to three years, allowing us to plan the necessary infrastructure accordingly. While existing capacity supports the near-term ramp, we are developing new energy storage to meet the full requirement, which drives nearly $2 billion of incremental storage investment, along with additional tolling agreements and the associated FCMs. These projects are progressing well to meet the customer's ramp timeline. In 2025, we advanced discussions with multiple hyperscalers, representing approximately 3 GW of additional load, and those conversations are progressing well. We are expecting to reach final terms of an agreement with an additional customer in the coming weeks.
This next data center agreement will require a combination of new generation and storage resources, providing significant capital upside to our plan. This contract will be the first step towards executing the additional 3 GW of demand in late-stage negotiations, which we have said could drive our operating EPS growth to over 8% later in the plan. As we advance the related contracts and move this next project through the regulatory approval process by mid-year, we will provide more details on the capital upside and the impacts to our long-term plan. Although we will be filing for the approval of a large load customer tariff, we expect the next data center contract to move through the standard MPSC review process for special contracts. The agreement will provide significant benefits and protections for our customers, including meaningful affordability benefits. The agreement will also support significant investment in generation and storage.
I'm looking forward to providing more updates on this project as the contracts and approvals move forward. Beyond the 3 GW that are in advanced discussions, we are engaged with multiple additional opportunities that could add another 3-4 GW of new load, and we expect additional demand from our initial customers as they execute their plans to expand over time. To support this significant demand, we anticipate the need for new baseload generation and storage investments. We have taken steps to prepare for additional combined cycle gas turbine developments that are CCS capable, which could support up to 2.8 GW of new load. Our extensive development expertise and strong land positions give us flexibility to pursue renewable and storage build-outs to support these customers.
These incremental generation requirements will be incorporated into our 2026 Integrated Resource Plan filing, ensuring alignment with our long-term strategy and regulatory commitments. Let's move to slide eight to discuss our commitment to customer affordability. We have a proven track record of executing our investment plans to deliver customer value while managing affordability. As the chart illustrates, our average annual bill increase over the past four years is well below both the national and Great Lakes Region averages, and we remain fully committed to keeping affordability at the center of our strategy as we move forward. We are delivering top-tier affordability through continued superior cost management and operational excellence. We're advancing a number of initiatives designed to continue to provide value and affordability for our customers.
Importantly, near-term data center growth will create substantial affordability headroom, driving $300 million of annual benefits for our existing customers once fully ramped, which is a significant savings for our customers. Our culture of continuous improvement ensures that O&M and capital investments remain efficient and disciplined. A key area where we expect to create substantial value for our customers is through the use of new technologies. Our advanced analytics models are uncovering opportunities that will drive significant operational efficiencies, that lower costs, and further improve how we serve our customers. These opportunities include automating back-office work to more effectively manage preventative maintenance and storm response. Driving customer-focused efficiencies through technology is a top priority for me and our entire team, and I look forward to delivering on this commitment.
In addition, the transition from coal to natural gas and renewables further reduces O&M costs, while our diverse energy mix delivers stable fuel costs for our customers. And finally, the Inflation Reduction Act supports our transition to cleaner energy, helping to make these investments more affordable for customers. Today, our residential electric bill has become less than 2% of the median household income of our customers, and our residential bills are 18% below the national average. Importantly, we continue to expand our customer assistance programs for our most vulnerable customers, who we know need the most support. In 2025, DTE helped vulnerable and income-qualified customers access $125 million in energy assistance through partnerships with nonprofit agencies across Michigan.
DTE donated $15 million to the Heat and Warmth Fund, the Salvation Army, and the United Way to provide critical support to those in need across the state. All of these efforts I've described demonstrate our ongoing commitment to delivering safe and reliable energy, with a clear focus on affordability for all of our customers. With the upcoming gubernatorial election in 2026, there has been some discussion on the impact of energy costs on overall affordability in Michigan. As you can see, DTE continues to deliver meaningful, measurable value for customers while maintaining a strong focus on affordability. We will ensure that our customers and stakeholders understand the value we provide in our progress on delivering safe, affordable, reliable, and cleaner energy. So to wrap up, we had an extremely successful year in 2025 and are well positioned to deliver another great year in 2026.
I'm genuinely excited about our long-term plan and the opportunities ahead to deliver for all stakeholders, including providing exceptional service to our customers and communities, and driving continued strong financial performance for our investors. With that, I'll hand it over to Dave. Dave, over to you.
David Ruud (CFO)
Thanks, Joi, and good morning, everyone. Let me start on slide nine to review our 2025 financial results. Operating earnings for the year were $1.5 billion, which translate to operating EPS of $7.36 per share. This is above the high end of our 2025 guidance range. You can find a detailed breakdown of operating EPS by segment, including our reconciliation to GAAP reported earnings in the appendix. I'll start the review at the top of the page with our utilities. DTE Electric operating earnings were approximately $1.2 billion for the year, which is $112 billion higher than 2024. The main drivers of the earnings increase were implementation of base rates, weather favorability, lower storm expenses, and higher earnings from our clean energy projects.
This was partially offset by higher O&M and rate base costs. Moving on to DTE Gas. Operating earnings were $295 million, $32 million higher than 2024. The earnings increase was driven by colder winter weather and implementation of new base rates, partially offset by higher O&M and rate base costs. As we mentioned last quarter, O&M at DTE Gas was higher in 2025 than it was in 2024, as O&M returned to more normalized levels following one-time lean operational measures and other unsustainable reductions that were implemented over the past few years in response to the warmer weather we were experiencing. Let's move to DTE Vantage on the third row. Vantage had another strong year in 2025, with $162 million of operating earnings.
The increase from 2024 was primarily due to RNG production tax credits and new project development in the custom energy solution space, partially offset by lower investment tax credits than in 2024 and lower steel-related earnings. On the next row, you can see energy trading finished the year with operating earnings of $114 million. The strong performance in our contracted and hedged physical power and physical gas portfolios that we experienced in 2024 continued into 2025, as was expected. This resulting strong performance allowed us to leverage the favorability across the company to support future years. Finally, Corporate and Other was unfavorable by $73 million year over year, due primarily to higher interest expense and one-time tax items.
Overall, DTE earned $7.36 per share in 2025, delivering above the high end of our 2025 original guidance range. Let's move on to slide 10 to discuss our 2026 outlook. As Joi mentioned, we are well positioned to deliver another strong year in 2026. Our 2026 operating EPS guidance range is $7.59-$7.73 per share, which provides 6%-8% growth over our 2025 guidance midpoint, and we are confident that we will deliver at the high end of the guidance range. Utility growth will be driven by customer-focused investments, including distribution and cleaner generation investments at DTE Electric, and main renewal and other infrastructure improvements at DTE Gas.
DTE Vantage will see growth from the development of new custom energy solutions projects and continued contributions from RNG production tax credits. At Energy Trading, we continue to see strength in our structured physical power and physical gas portfolios, giving us confidence in achieving our targets for 2026. At Corporate and Other, the change is driven by higher interest expense as we continue to fund our valuable investments across the company. Let's turn to slide 11, discuss our balance sheet and equity issuance plan. We continue to focus on maintaining solid balance sheet metrics. To support the significant increase to our capital investment plan that we need to execute for our customers, we are targeting annual equity issuances of $500 million-$600 million in 2026 through 2028, with similar levels through 2030.
This level of equity supports the increased capital in our plan, including the storage investments related to our data center agreement, while maintaining our strong credit metrics. We will continue to maximize the use of internal mechanisms to issue equity, but we'll also incorporate manageable external issuances. We have established an equity ATM program to effectively manage a portion of our total equity needs. Our five-year plan fully incorporates these equity needs and continues to deliver 6%-8% operating EPS growth with a bias at the upper end each year through 2030. Our long-term plan also includes debt refinancing and new debt issuances. We expect to strategically utilize hybrid securities to support our financing plan, and we will continue to manage future debt issuances through interest rate hedging and other opportunities.
Importantly, we remain focused on maintaining our strong investment-grade credit rating and solid balance sheet metrics as we target an FFO to debt ratio of approximately 15%. Let me wrap up on slide 12, and then we'll open the line for questions. DTE continues to consistently deliver for all our stakeholders. We delivered solid results in 2025, achieving operating earnings of $7.36 per share, which is above the high end of our guidance range. Our 2026 guidance reflects operating EPS growth of 6%-8% over our 2025 guidance midpoint, and RNG tax credit gives us confidence that we will deliver at the higher end of that range.
Our five-year plan provides high quality, long-term, 6%-8% operating EPS growth through increased customer-focused utility investments, with utility operating earnings making up 93% of our overall earnings by 2030. Our capital investment plan increased by $6.5 billion over our previous plan, to $36.5 billion over the five-year period. This increase is driven by the recent data center transaction and the continued need to modernize our utility assets and provide cleaner generation. We are confident we will reach the high end of our guidance range in each year, driven by RNG tax credits and the flexibility they provide. Additional data center opportunities will provide upside to this five-year capital investment and operating EPS growth plan. Overall.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. We'll go first to Shar Pourreza at Wells Fargo.
Shar Pourreza (Managing Director and Head of North American Power, Infrastructure, and Utilities)
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Good morning.
David Ruud (CFO)
Hi, Shar.
Shar Pourreza (Managing Director and Head of North American Power, Infrastructure, and Utilities)
Good morning, guys. So just, just to build a little bit on the prepared, so obviously the data center announcement is on schedule. It sounds like it'll come with material CapEx and accretive to earnings. And obviously, Joi, you mentioned it's significant upside in your prepared. Can you just maybe elaborate as we're thinking about the 6%-8% that's been out there, could this sort of new customer actually step function, change the trajectory or lengthen and strengthen the top end? Or do you need to see more deals materialize before revising the longer-term projections? Thanks.
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Yeah, as we included in the deck, Shar, and we said all along that 3 GW of incremental data center load would take our compound annual growth rate above 8% between 2027 and 2030. This additional data center, which is a part of that three, we believe will take us to at least 8% in that timeframe. And so the capital would begin coming into the plan in the 2027 timeframe and continue from there. So we feel really great about our 6%-8% and the potential that this, we have to reach the high end each year with our current plan, and this new data center would have the opportunity to take the compound annual growth rate between 2027 and 2030 to 8%, and then anything above that, approaching that 3 GW, gets us 8%+.
Shar Pourreza (Managing Director and Head of North American Power, Infrastructure, and Utilities)
Okay, that's helpful clarity there. And then just, do you think you'll see that third deal announced by Q3 EEI timeframe?
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Yeah, we're working on the second deal, so we got to get that one nailed down.
Shar Pourreza (Managing Director and Head of North American Power, Infrastructure, and Utilities)
Yep, yep.
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
We're continuing discussions with the hyperscalers, and, you know, we are working hard to see if we can get yet another deal behind that one. But the way this will work out with the second deal and any deals that we achieved in that time frame, we would update our plans and then potentially give you all some indication in Q2. We're going to use the standard process for approval of the contracts associated with this deal, so that'll play out over the course of the summer, and we've got to let that process play out. But we figure by Q2, at the latest, Q3, we'd be able to communicate how much capital we'd be putting in our plan and, of course, have detailed conversations at EEI.
Shar Pourreza (Managing Director and Head of North American Power, Infrastructure, and Utilities)
Got it. Perfect. And then just, lastly, I mean, obviously there's been some data center pushbacks in Michigan and some of the surrounding states, and obviously we saw one data center pull out despite having sort of an assigned ESA. I guess, any specific lessons learned, Joi, around the Oracle process? And just remind us if you need final MPSC approval to count this load in the IRP or just final terms. Thanks.
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Yeah. So, you know, we recognize the concerns that have been raised by some of the large data center projects, and we've been really clear that, you know, for our customers, reliability always comes first, and we're always working on affordability. That said, in all of our discussions with the data centers, we've made it clear that these contracts have to be structured in a way that the revenues fully support their load and cover all the associated costs. So at no time will our customers be burdened with the cost of bringing on new data centers. And if you recall, obviously, this Oracle deal gives our existing customers $300 million annually of affordability benefits once they reach the full ramp.
We're encouraging the data center developers to become more engaged at the local level, and that's where we think that, this, the concerns can be best addressed. So we're seeing projects that are making its way through zoning and also site plans, which tells us the right conversations are happening. But again, we remain committed to transparency, collaborations, and really protecting the interests of our communities and our customers along the way. As for, do we need to see this get approved in the IRP, or do we need to see this get approved by the commission? Yes, we'd have to get the approval from the commission before we would add this into our plan. Data center load is but one of many inputs that we intend to incorporate into our Q3 IRP filing.
Shar Pourreza (Managing Director and Head of North American Power, Infrastructure, and Utilities)
Got it. Perfect. Thank you so much, Joi, for the concise response. Congrats.
Operator (participant)
We'll move next to Michael Lonegan at Barclays.
Michael Lonegan (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Morning. Thanks for taking my question. So to piggyback on that pushback question on data centers, you know, obviously, Michigan is seeing a significant number of moratoriums in local communities. Just wondering if any of the potential projects in your pipeline are located in any of these areas with a moratorium, if you see any risk to advancing these projects or delays?
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
The contract that we are working on right now, we don't see any potential delays. Let me just say, the moratorium, some of the moratoriums that you're hearing about, the communities are not suitable for large load data centers to begin with. So there really is no impact to the pipeline. The folks that we've been talking to have land positions. Some have made it through the zoning process already and are working on site plans, and like I said before, they're engaging the local communities, and we believe that's the game changer, and really shifting the sentiment so that the communities understand the benefits that they will realize once these data centers land in their backyard.
Michael Lonegan (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great, thanks. And then secondly, for me, so obviously affordability, you know, is a concern across the country, but, you know, particularly a lot of rhetoric, you know, from the midterm election candidates in Michigan, you know, talking about rate freezes and the like. You know, in this context, how are you feeling about heading into the final decision in your electric rate case? You know, what gives you confidence you will land a constructive outcome there?
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
So I'll tell you that, you know, we always put affordability as the governor for our growth plans and our investments, and affordability remains top of mind for us, which is why, as we make these investments, we're trying to keep the bills as low as possible and deliver the reliability improvements and then continue our work to transition to cleaner generation. We've seen support of our investments in the staff testimony. In particular, they supported the expansion of the IRM to roughly $1 billion over the next couple of years. And in fact, they even recommended that we pull forward $200 million worth of pole top maintenance into 2026. We feel really good about the prospects for a constructive outcome.
There, the staff position was generally at what we expected, and, we are waiting, anxiously awaiting the nineteenth, so we can have a full view of their support. But at this point, we know that affordability is top of mind, and we're going to work hard to make sure that our customers, particularly those in need, get the support, and these investments continue to deliver value.
Michael Lonegan (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks for taking my question.
Operator (participant)
We'll move next to Julien Dumoulin-Smith at Jefferies.
Eva Nagovich (Equity Research Associate)
Oh, hi. Hi, it's Eva Nagovich for Julien. I just had a question that, you know, given the utility CapEx increases and financing needs, you know, how—and especially, you know, if you're expecting additional couple of megawatts or gigawatts of load, how does that change the thought process on asset rotations and monetization for Vantage?
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Yes. So Vantage has, you know, served us well for over 20 years, and they continue to have a very strong development pipeline. In fact, we've got a data center opportunity that we're looking to close out in the near term here, that really represents a really nice vertical in light of the tightness that exists in the market all across the country. That said, we are always looking to deliver value for our shareholders, and we have really big investments that we have to make in our utilities, and you've seen that we've made this strategic shift, where we're doubling down in our utilities and holding Vantage essentially flat. But they've got a really solid growth pipeline that we wanna continue to explore, particularly around data centers. And as always, we'll continue to examine opportunities to deliver value for our shareholders.
Eva Nagovich (Equity Research Associate)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Next, we'll go to David Arcaro at Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro (Executive Director of Equity Research)
Oh, hey, thank you. Good morning. Maybe just to follow up on that Vantage opportunity you just mentioned, Joi. I was just curious if you could give any other details around, you know, how big of a potential data center project Vantage is going after here. What's kind of the profile of the different opportunities that you're seeing, you know, is this on-site power, you know, behind the meter-type power project?
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Yeah. Yeah, David, it is behind the meter, primary power. Think of it as several hundred megawatts of load, and we see these types of opportunities across the country. In fact, when we started this work, I thought it was gonna be the unicorn, and clearly it is not. So there is a pipeline that the team is exploring. We are looking to close out the discussions with the counterparty. Still too early, but we're down to some final terms that we're ironing out. Really excited about it, and the team has come up with, I think, a very creative solution that could be applied to other similarly situated co-locators across the country. So it could be a differentiator for us.
David Arcaro (Executive Director of Equity Research)
Okay, excellent. Thanks for that. Is that, is that an opportunity that you'd be able to kinda quantify in terms of the CapEx investment here, also similar to the other, you know, regulated data center opportunity, for a CapEx addition mid-year?
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Yeah, that would be the ideal time to give you an update on the capital for that particular investment. Yes.
David Arcaro (Executive Director of Equity Research)
Okay, great. Got it. Then I was just wondering if you could comment on, you know, we've seen some very widely varying ALJ recommendations when it comes to ROEs in Michigan. I was wondering if you could give your latest perspective on, you know, how do you interpret the latest recommendation, the 8.2% ROE that we saw recently? Just feedback or what you're expecting from the commission in terms of overall, you know, direction of travel with regard to regulation and ROEs in the state.
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Yeah. If you recall, the chair of the commission has already stated that, you know, ROEs are where he would like to see them, given the macroeconomics, and that they felt appropriate. So we're anticipating that in our case, we will see our ROE remain flat. And if you recall, the ALJ in our case even recommended a 9.9 ROE. So I think we feel really good about our position, and I believe that, you know, given the current borrowing costs, we, you know, the recommendation for a 8.2 ROE is simply not a reasonable benchmark under these conditions. But like I said, we've gotten all the positive indicators that we could possibly hope for in our case, and we'll know for sure on Thursday.
David Arcaro (Executive Director of Equity Research)
Okay, great. Thank you for the call, though.
Operator (participant)
We'll go next to Michael Sullivan at Wolfe Research.
Michael Sullivan (Director of Equity Research)
Hey, good morning.
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Good morning!
Michael Sullivan (Director of Equity Research)
Hey, hey, Joi. Wanted to ask on just the resource planning for some of these incremental load opportunities that you have, particularly, with regards to new gas. Can you just-- It sounds like you got a couple gigawatts in the hopper on top of what's planned to replace Monroe. But yeah, can you just square, like, the timing of when you think you can get new gas to serve some of these load opportunities?
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Yes. So just given some of the lead times, we've taken steps to get into MISO queue and put down payments on turbine so that we are well positioned toward the tail end of our plan to bring on the replacements of Monroe and address any other new load that may come into our plant. That said, the IRP will be the ultimate determinant of the resource mix that is required to serve new load, and that process will begin in Q3 when we file our next case. But I will tell you from our last op run of our IRP, we know that we have to have a large dispatchable 25, 24 by seven resource.
Once Monroe retires, which is why we've set ourselves up for CCGT, that's CCS capable, and we'll begin the work of vetting that with interveners, stakeholders, as we file our IRP.
Michael Sullivan (Director of Equity Research)
Okay, great. Thanks. Maybe this one's for Dave. Just given some of the weather to start the year, and volatility and power prices across the country, are we potentially looking at another year of trading outperformance or any color you can give there?
David Ruud (CFO)
Yeah, as you saw, trading had a great year in 25, as we saw some of those good margins continue in gas and power. We do see some of that because some of those contracts are one to three years, some of that continues into 2026. We're still, you know, we guide to the $50 million-$60 million for trading, but there are some tailwinds, as you mentioned, based on some of the contracts that we've had in place that are, you know, fully structured and hedged through the year.
Michael Sullivan (Director of Equity Research)
Okay. If I could just sneak one more in, sticking with you, Dave, just remind us how much incremental equity as a percent of increased CapEx, general rule of thumb?
David Ruud (CFO)
Yeah. Any incremental equity we bring in is approximately 40% of the CapEx that we would have. You know, that always will vary in some of the years based on the timing of the cash flows and tax credits, but over time, it does work out to about 40% of equity for the additional capital that will come in.
Michael Sullivan (Director of Equity Research)
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Next, we'll move to Travis Miller at Morningstar.
Travis Miller (Senior Equity Analyst)
Good morning. Thank you.
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Good morning.
Travis Miller (Senior Equity Analyst)
The answer to that question just brought up another quick question for me, and then I had my original question. But on that 40% of equity, is that in line... If we tie that to the data center contracts, is that in line with the way the data center financing portion of the contract is, or is that extra leverage relative to the data center contract? Does that make sense?
David Ruud (CFO)
Well, I think for the capital, we would bring in 40% of that, would be—we would see as equity. No, I don't follow the data center contract part of that, but I think as we brought the capital in, it would be 40% would be equity over time.
Travis Miller (Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. I was just tying back the implied return on capital within the data center contract, but that makes sense. Okay. Original question was: how does the data center growth impact your rate case cadence, do you think, over the next four or five years with the ramps coming on? Any change to that, since it sounds like a lot of the CapEx is covered in the data center contracts themselves?
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Yeah, John. I mean, this will have to play out over time. Listen, the biggest way for us to stay out of rate cases is to grow the IRM. That's the biggest lever that we have before us, and we're continuing to work that with the commission staff, and they seem supportive of at least our first go-round of expanding the IRM. And of course, as we bring on data center load, that gives us more opportunities as well, to potentially look at putting distance in rate cases.
Travis Miller (Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay, great. That's all I had. Thanks so much.
David Ruud (CFO)
Thanks, Travis.
Operator (participant)
Next, we'll move to Anthony Crowdell at Mizuho.
Anthony Crowdell (Senior Analyst)
Hey, hey, good morning, team. Congrats on the quarter. Quickly, just where did you end the year on, FFO to debt?
David Ruud (CFO)
Yeah, we ended the year at 15%, almost 15.5%, 15.4% FFO to debt.
Anthony Crowdell (Senior Analyst)
And then just Joi or, you know, or Dave, I, I know Dave gets upset when I only ask him the question. Just you have a big gubernatorial race going on there. I think there's 10 candidates. Just any conversations, any color you could have on, you know, DTE's position with the large slate of candidates?
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Yes. Well, let me start by saying DTE is always committed to a bipartisan approach for policymaking, which means we've had strong relationships on both sides of the aisle and really durable policies. Obviously, affordability is a top question on the campaign trail, and we take it very seriously for obvious reasons. What we're seeing in the latest round of data is that Americans clearly are concerned about the cost of groceries, healthcare, housing, and utilities in that order. And as you've heard in my opening remarks, we're ramping up our outreach to the candidates. We're delivering solid, focused messages around our achievements, particularly as it relates to reliability and the fact that DTE Electric bill growth since 2021 has been top decile at only 3%, when the national average is at more like 24%.
These investments are working, and that also drives down the emergent costs related to storms, and we had the best year we've had in 20 years for reliability. Lastly, we talked to them about, you know, the things that we're doing to protect our, the most vulnerable around us, and that's advocating for energy assistance. But the biggest lever we have to address affordability is economic development that comes with load growth done right. And case in point, the Oracle deal is going to yield $300 million worth of affordability benefits once they reach their full ramp. That's the kind of conversation that we're having. These are the solutions that we want to address, among other things, and I think the candidates are receiving the message well, and we're going to continue those conversations as the elections unfold.
Anthony Crowdell (Senior Analyst)
Great. And then hopefully, just one last one. I don't know if you could comment on it. I do believe the Michigan Attorney General was looking to have the Public Service Commission look into some of the data center special contracts.
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Yes.
Anthony Crowdell (Senior Analyst)
Do you know if there's a timing or a deadline on when they, the commission will get back to the attorney general?
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Yeah, there will be a 21-day period, I believe, that the commission has to file their response to the attorney general's request.
Anthony Crowdell (Senior Analyst)
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
Operator (participant)
That concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference call back over to Joi Harris for closing remarks.
Joi Harris (President and CEO)
Well, thank you everyone for joining us today. I'll close by saying that DTE had a great year in 2025 and is well positioned to achieve our goals in 2026. I'm super excited about our long-term plan and the opportunities ahead, and I look forward to seeing many of you on the road throughout the year. Have a great morning. Stay healthy and safe.
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.