Everest Group - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Executive Summary

• Everest took decisive reserve strengthening actions in Q4 2024 totaling $1.7B pre-tax, primarily in U.S. casualty across Insurance and Reinsurance, and formed a new “Other” segment to isolate non-core/run-off exposures.
• Management withdrew detailed forward guidance and introduced a new target objective to deliver mid-teens total shareholder return over the cycle; they emphasized prudence via added risk margins above actuarial central estimates.
• Reinsurance favorable development in well-seasoned property and mortgage largely offset U.S. casualty reserve strengthening in that segment, underscoring embedded margin and portfolio construction quality.
• The Insurance division is undergoing aggressive remediation of U.S. casualty, with management targeting completion by end-2025 and acknowledging a “just over 100” accident-year combined ratio starting point for 2024; mix shift toward short-tail and international is expected to be a tailwind.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Favorable reserve development in Reinsurance property and mortgage lines (~70/30 split) fully offset U.S. casualty reserve strengthening, reflecting embedded margin and strong cedent quality; management added $180M risk margin on top of actuarial estimates for conservatism.
• International insurance expansion performing “at an exceptional level,” with excellent technical margins and improving expense ratios as scale builds; leadership highlighted strong broker/client demand across Europe, LatAm, and APAC.
• Clear, decisive pivot in U.S. casualty underwriting: non-renewed 33% of U.S. casualty GWP in 2024, aiming to remediate each account in one renewal or exit; management reported strong rate gains (e.g., auto low-20s, GL/excess mid-teens in Q3) and a pipeline of marquee loss-sensitive accounts.

What Went Wrong

• Elevated social inflation drove higher loss emergence in U.S. casualty lines, necessitating $1.278B adverse development in Insurance and $684M strengthening in Reinsurance U.S. casualty; “Other” segment added $425M adverse development tied to sports & leisure, A&E, and discontinued lines.
• Management cited increased frequency of high-severity claims, litigation funding, plaintiff tactics, and erosion of tort reform as structural drivers of social inflation; underwriting choices (large guaranteed-cost programs, exposure to habitational/sports) magnified impact.
• Expense ratio expected to be “stickier” in 2025 as casualty premiums shrink during remediation and growth in other areas offsets; near-term mixed growth dynamics may pressure premium scale and expense leverage.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, and welcome to the Everest Group, Ltd. Fourth Quarter 2024 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star and then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Matt Rohrmann, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Matthew Rohrmann (SVP, Finance and IR)

Thanks, Dave. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Everest Group Ltd. fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. The Everest executives leading today's call are Jim Williamson, our President and CEO, and Mark Kociancic, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President. We are also joined by other members of the Everest management team. Before we begin, I'll preface the comments by noting that today's call will include forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update forward-looking statements. Management comments regarding estimates, projections, and similar are subject to the risks, uncertainties, and assumptions as noted in Everest's SEC filings. Management may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Full explanations and reconciliations to GAAP can be found in our earnings release and financial supplement on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

Jim Williamson (President and CEO)

Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin by addressing two recent tragedies: the wildfires in California and the plane crash in Washington, D.C., last Wednesday. The human toll of both events is devastating. Our thoughts and prayers are with the people, families, and communities affected. We are particularly grateful to the first responders who worked tirelessly during and in the aftermath of these events. Everest stands ready to put its financial resources to work and fulfill its societal mission of aiding recovery. Both of these events remain ongoing from a loss assessment perspective. Regarding the L.A. wildfires, I would expect Everest to take a pre-tax net loss for the group of between $350 and $450 million, equating to a 1% market share. Most of this loss will impact our reinsurance division.

We are confident in the underwriting of this exposure by both our insurance and reinsurance teams, and our share of loss reflects careful client selection. Most Cedants are unable to provide expected loss ranges except in those cases where a total loss to their reinsurance program is nearly certain. As a result, this loss estimate remains a broad range based on the most widely used industry loss figures. Specific to the aviation tragedy, it's too early to provide a loss estimate for the event, but we expect it to be well-managed in our Q1 results. Moving on to our fourth quarter results. As we discussed last week, Everest's decisive reserve action added $1.7 billion to net reserves, including over $200 million of additions to our 2024 loss picks.

Worth emphasizing that despite the impact of our reserve strengthening, Everest earned $1.3 billion in operating income for the year and achieved a 9% operating return on equity. While these results are not consistent with the goals for our company, they speak to the resilience of our business, as strong income streams and reinsurance and investments more than offset needed reserve strengthening, predominantly in U.S. casualty lines. Putting aside the reserving action for a moment, let me unpack our current period's business performance, starting with reinsurance, where results were once again excellent. Despite an elevated CAT year, including a major hurricane in the fourth quarter, we earned $286 million and $1.2 billion of underwriting income for the quarter and year, respectively.

Fourth quarter all-in combined ratio, excluding the impact of prior year favorable CAT development and profit commissions due to reserve releases in our mortgage book, is 91.5%. This result clearly demonstrates Everest's ability to absorb significant CAT activity and still deliver. Premium growth in the quarter, excluding the impact of reinstatement premiums, was 12.6%. This is a result of strong execution with our core clients, particularly in property lines, as well as selective expansion in some of our specialty underwriting areas and international business. This growth was offset by the effects of the discipline we're exercising in U.S.-exposed treaty casualty. Our casualty pro rata book was down more than 7% in the quarter, which really understates the extent of our discipline actions, which were offset by growth in non-U.S. casualty.

Everest has been an early and consistent voice regarding the changes needed in the U.S. casualty quota share market. Ceding commissions are too high, and capacity is generally available regardless of the quality of the Cedant. Faced with those conditions, we've maintained our singular focus on underwriting discipline and Cedant selection. To highlight the point, since the January 1st, 2024, renewal, we've walked away from nearly $750 million in North American casualty quota share business. Our approach in this line is simple. We conduct a thorough ground-up underwriting and loss cost review of each treaty, and we cut back anything that doesn't meet our return expectations. Period. Moving on to the January 1st, 2025, renewal, where our team again executed at the highest levels.

Overall, our total reinsurance division bound premium was down by about 3% during the renewal, driven mostly by the aforementioned casualty discipline, which was offset by growth on the very best deals in the market, mostly in property and specialty lines. Although property cat prices were down generally between 5% and 15% for loss-free programs, overall rate levels remain above what we need to be willing to deploy capacity in most markets. An exception to my view on the property cat market is continental Europe. European cat activity in the form of severe convective storm, hail, and flooding is clearly a rising trend. Those events drove significant annual losses. France, Germany, Italy, and Eastern Europe have all been particularly affected over the last several years.

After a thorough review of our modeling and analytics for these perils, we reached the conclusion that we needed to charge more for European CAT exposure, in some cases significantly more. As a result, our average modeled loss costs increased by about 10%. We fully exited over 20 deals, significantly cut back on many others, while increasing moderately on the most profitable layers and programs. Going forward, we expect the California wildfires to serve as a reminder, as if one was needed, to all property reinsurance underwriters of the need to maintain pricing discipline and achieve adequate rate. The global property cat reinsurance market overall remains attractive for Everest's capacity.

As I have said, our customers prefer to do more business with Everest when they can, which means we will continue to enjoy the option of choosing where to put our capacity to work. Moving to insurance, overall gross written premium was down marginally due to our casualty remediation, offset by growth in short tail and specialty lines. Of course, the published combined ratios for the quarter and year are unacceptable. But if you look at it purely on a current period basis, our 2024 combined ratio is 100.7%.

That is certainly not good, but it gives us a launching point for our portfolio remediation that we can work with. Our international operation continues to grow, with a strong overall written premium increase in P&C, short tail, and specialty lines. Despite substantial investments in people and infrastructure, the international insurance business earned an underwriting profit in 2024. Our loss ratio in that business is excellent, and consistent actual versus expected data in what is largely a short tail portfolio gives us confidence in our loss picks. In 2025, we're focused on increasing scale in the 12 markets we're operating in. We do not expect to enter additional markets this year, which will result in greater premium leverage against expenses as we move forward. Finally, our North American insurance business is making breakthroughs in remediating our casualty portfolio.

Consistent with our actions in Q3, 40% of our casualty premiums in the fourth quarter were not renewed, including actions in our Eversports portfolio now captured in our other segment. In our ongoing insurance business, this results in a premium reduction in our U.S. specialty casualty business of approximately 23%. This is despite accelerated rate achievement in GL, auto liability, and umbrella excess ranging from 14%-27%. Loss cost inflation remains steady at an elevated level, and as we discussed last week, we will be assuming 12-plus points of average trend across those lines. Also, the last quarter was affected by the runoff of our medical stop-loss business. Impact in the quarter was $75 million. Our team in the field has done a good job pipelining and underwriting a number of large risk management accounts.

These are well-structured, with sophisticated clients who understand the need to manage exposure in a heavy social inflation environment. Recent wins in this business include a multi-line solution for a leading global industrial firm, property cross-sell to an existing casualty account in the public advocacy arena, and a large deductible casualty program for a consumer products company. We set ourselves apart from the competition on these deals through the quality of our relationships, breadth of our offering, and specialized services. Results of our portfolio remediation, coupled with the targeted growth, are already being reflected in our data.

Our specialty casualty business made up 25% of our global insurance premiums in Q4, down from over 30% one year ago, and the quality of the accounts has improved dramatically. As I said on our pre-release call, we will take no credit in our loss picks for this, but I certainly expect it to yield increasing margin over time. And now I'll turn it over to Mark to discuss the financials in more detail.

Mark Kociancic (CFO and EVP)

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. As we discussed last week, 2024 was a pivotal year of transformation for Everest. We took decisive action to fortify our U.S. casualty reserves following a comprehensive reserve review, and it's reflected in our fourth quarter 2024 results. Looking at the group results, Everest reported gross written premiums of $4.7 billion, representing 7.2% growth in constant dollars and excluding reinstatement premiums. The combined ratio was 135.5% for the quarter. This includes unfavorable development of prior year loss reserves of $1.5 billion, or 37.6 points on the combined ratio. We also strengthened current accident year losses by $229 million, with total strengthening of $1.7 billion for the full year and fourth quarter 2024. Cat losses in the quarter contributed 5.3 points to the combined ratio, largely driven by Hurricane Milton.

We also had releases on prior year events, largely driven by Hurricane Ian, which partially offset cat losses this quarter, which, as a reminder, run through the catastrophe line in the segment P&L. I would also note that the prior year quarter had much lower than average cat capacity. The group attritional loss ratio was 63.9%, a 490 basis point increase over the prior year's quarter. This reflects the current accident year strengthening I mentioned a few moments ago, primarily within our insurance segment, the group's commission ratio was 21.2% when excluding the impact of 1.8 points from the profit commissions associated with favorable reserve development in the reinsurance segment related to the mortgage business and consistent with the prior year.

The group expense ratio was 6.2% in the quarter as we continue to invest in talent and systems within both franchises. Moving to the segment results and starting with reinsurance. Reinsurance gross premiums grew 12.6% in constant dollars when adjusting for reinstatement premiums during the quarter. The strong growth was primarily driven by strong double-digit increases in property pro rata and property CAT XOL, partially offset by continued discipline in casualty lines. For the full year 2024, property CAT XOL grew approximately 26.2% versus the prior year. Combined ratio was 90.4% in the fourth quarter. The prior year fourth quarter combined ratio of 78.9% included 15.3 points of favorable prior year reserve development. As you saw in our press release last week, favorable development in property and mortgage lines fully offset reserve strengthening in U.S. casualty lines.

Catastrophe losses contributed 5.4 points to the combined ratio in the quarter, consistent with the prior year. This quarter's CAT losses were largely driven by $275 million of losses from Hurricane Milton and were partially offset by $125 million of releases on prior year events, namely Hurricane Ian. Attritional loss ratio improved 90 basis points to 56.9%, which was primarily driven by mix as we continue to grow strongly in property CAT XOL and reduce our casualty pro rata business. Attritional combined ratio improved 140 basis points to 83.7% when excluding the impact of $68 million in profit commissions associated with favorable mortgage reserve development this quarter. The prior year quarter included $94 million of profit commission related to loss reserve releases in mortgage lines.

Normalized commission ratio was 24% when you exclude the 2.3 points attributed to the profit commissions associated with favorable development and reinsurance. The underwriting related expense ratio was 2.5%, consistent with the prior year. Moving to insurance, gross premiums written decreased 1.6% in constant dollars to $1.4 billion, driven by our decisive actions to shed underperforming U.S. casualty business. We are targeting growth in the most accretive lines to improve the portfolio quality and further diversify the book. We made meaningful progress this quarter with property and specialty lines each growing above 30% in the quarter. This growth was offset by the aggressive underwriting action we are taking in specialty casualty lines, centered around U.S. casualty lines, as well as the runoff of our A&H medical stop-loss business, which was completed in Q4.

As you saw in our press release last week, we strengthened U.S. casualty prior year reserves in our recently redefined insurance segment by approximately $1.1 billion in the quarter. We also strengthened current accident year losses by $206 million, which is reflected in the increased attritional loss ratio of 84% this quarter and 68.1% for the full year 2024. The combined ratio also included 5.3 points of catastrophe losses, primarily driven by losses from Hurricane Milton, while the prior year fourth quarter benefited from a relatively benign level of cat losses.

Commission ratio increased 100 basis points, largely driven by business mix, and the underwriting related expense ratio was 17.9%, with the increase largely driven by the continued investment in our global platform and slower earned premium growth as we rationalize our U.S. casualty portfolio. We recently formed our other segment to enhance disclosure around non-core lines of business. We strengthened reserves by $425 million in the quarter, which includes an increase of $22 million to current accident year losses. The other segment includes $1.1 billion of net reserves.

Moving on, net investment income increased to $473 million for the quarter, driven primarily by higher assets under management. Alternative assets generated $41 million of net investment income, which was in line with the prior year. Overall, our book yield was stable at 4.7%, and our reinvestment rate is just north of 5%. We continue to have a short asset duration of approximately 3.1 years, and the fixed income portfolio benefits from an average credit rating of AA-. Our investment portfolio remains well-positioned for the current environment. For the fourth quarter of 2024, our operating income tax rate was minus 16.6%, which was lower than our working assumption of 11%-12% for the year due to the net operating loss this quarter. However, the full year operating effective tax rate was 9%, which is closer to our expected range.

Shareholders' equity ended the quarter at $13.9 billion, or $14.7 billion excluding net unrealized depreciation on available-for-sale fixed income securities. At the end of the quarter, net after-tax unrealized losses on the available-for-sale fixed income portfolio equates to approximately $849 million, an increase of $629 million as compared to the end of the third quarter, and this was driven by increases in the treasury yield curve. Cash flow from operations was $780 million during the quarter, and approximately $5 billion for the full year. Book value per share ended the quarter at $322.97, an improvement of 8.7% from year-end 2023 when adjusted for dividends of $7.75 per share year-to-date. Book value per share excluding net unrealized depreciation on available-for-sale fixed income securities stood at $342.74 versus $320.95 per share at year-end 2023, representing an increase of approximately 6.8%.

Our full year 2024 total shareholder return was 9.2%.Net debt leverage at quarter-end stood at 15.6%, modestly lower from year-end 2023. Everest continues to have a strong financial position. We are focused on achieving our mid-teens total shareholder return over the cycle. We are well-positioned to execute our strategic initiatives, and we will look to continue to opportunistically repurchase shares this year and this quarter specifically, and with that, I'll turn the call back over to Matt.

Matthew Rohrmann (SVP, Finance and IR)

Thanks, Mark. Dave, we are now ready to open the line for questions. We do ask that you please limit your questions to one question plus one follow-up, then we join the queue for any additional questions.

Operator (participant)

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press Star then 1 on your touch-tone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press Star and then 2. Our first question comes from Gregory Peters with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Gregory Peters (MD and Equity Research)

Good morning, everyone. For my first question, I'm going to focus on the insurance segment, and I'm wondering if you could give us some additional detail on how you plan to manage volatility, considering that you're non-renewing all this casualty business and you'll have rising exposures to the property short-tail business in the international segment.

Jim Williamson (President and CEO)

Yeah, Greg, this is Jim. Thanks for the question. Look, it's pretty straightforward. I mean, we're very diligent around P&L management in each of our divisions, and we're very careful about how we plan for the coming year, for example, and where we're going to deploy capital and at what terms and conditions. We also very strategically, as you can imagine, in our insurance business, leverage the use of outbound reinsurance to manage per risk as well as overall volatility.

And so while the short-tail book in the insurance division is growing very nicely, as you would have seen in this quarter, and we're happy about it, we're happy about the pricing levels and the quality of the accounts we're writing, in terms of moving our overall group risk profile, it's really not moving the needle at this point. As it continues to grow, we'll just manage it within our general P&L framework. Not something that is outside of our ability to very thoughtfully approach.

Gregory Peters (MD and Equity Research)

Okay. My follow-up question is on the capital management comments. Mark, you, well, in the press release, you acknowledged that you didn't buy any stock back during the quarter. I assume that's because of the review issue. Can you give us sort of some framework about what your budget looks like for capital management activities? Should we think about it in terms of a payout ratio with dividends and share repurchase on total income for the year, or perhaps just give us some framework on how we should be thinking about that?

Mark Kociancic (CFO and EVP)

Greg, it's Mark. Thanks for the question. I think there's a lot of factors that go into it. So you start with, obviously, the fact we have, I think, still a strong financial position coming out of year-end 2024 despite the significant reserve charge. And we've got a very good earnings engine in the company. Last week, we gave the guidance of mid-teens total shareholder return over the cycle. We feel confident about that as an immediate objective and something that's set for 2025. A few other points. I think the growth rate of the company is one factor that goes into the equation, being able to execute our organic plan. That's something we feel confident with.

You're seeing us be cautious with casualty on the reinsurance side, disciplined in particular on the insurance side. And property remains very attractive as do other specialty lines. So what I do think you'll see less overall growth than in some prior years, and that will free up resources, I think, for more capital management-type actions. And then lastly, I think when you get into the equation, obviously, the attractiveness of our share price at the present time creates a very compelling incentive to buy back. And so, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, I fully expect us to be active this quarter.

Gregory Peters (MD and Equity Research)

Thank you for the answers.

Operator (participant)

And the next question comes from Meyer Shields with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Please go ahead.

Meyer Shields (Managing Director)

Thanks and good morning. Jim, I want to drill down a little bit in terms of, I guess, what on the outside we can expect in terms of insurance segment loss ratio progress. In other words, I understand the sustained 12% plus loss trend for casualty lines, but should we expect things like the runoff of the weaker portfolios or other business mix issues, is that going to show up in 2025?

Jim Williamson (President and CEO)

Yes, Meyer, it's Jim. Thanks for the question. So we definitely provided a little bit of insight around this during the pre-release call. And I think there are two key points. Number one, the prudence that we applied in the construction of the reserve actions that we took, as well as the topping off of the 2024 loss picks, is a level of prudence that we plan on continuing in 2025. And you'll see that in how we select our casualty loss picks during this year. But we also indicated, I think it is very important that mechanically, mix is moving quite quickly.

And of course, as I indicated in my prepared remarks, that aspect of it in terms of the shift of mix is already showing up in our data. And so, yeah, as mix improves the total loss ratio, obviously, that's a very positive tailwind for us to think about as we move through 2025.

Meyer Shields (Managing Director)

Thank you for clarifying.

Mark Kociancic (CFO and EVP)

Just one point to Jim's remarks. So if you look at our financial supplement on the insurance segment, you'll see a current year loss ratio, attritional loss ratio of 68.3%. And that obviously takes into account the current year strengthening for 2024. And that's with remediation underway in the casualty segment and a mix of business that is moving towards a more balanced portfolio as we shed some of the casualty numbers. So I think that's kind of the starting point for where the portfolio was. Now, to your point, obviously, there's still in-force premium that is earning out into 2025 with some of the older casualty business that we likely will non-renew.

And that will be a bit of a drag in 2025, but that's something we've expected, we've forecasted, and we clearly have two other pieces that I would say are favorable. So one is the mix of business aspect that Jim mentioned, and then the second is really the approach we're taking to the casualty account renewals and new business in general in terms of rate. So I see those as two favorable impacts that will help that loss ratio development improve year over year and still respect the loss trend assumption we gave last week, plus the prudence actions that we indicated that are going to be taking place in U.S. liability in particular.

Meyer Shields (Managing Director)

Okay, perfect. Thank you both. That's very helpful. Second question, it sounds like some casualty lines are improving rapidly. When you look at that, there may be business you don't want to write in 2025, but maybe by 2026, it's good enough. So are you maintaining, I guess, full run rate expenses in anticipation of eventual profitability? I'm not sure how that aspect of expense management plays in?

Jim Williamson (President and CEO)

Well, yeah. So if your question is, are we continuing to invest in our business very thoughtfully, the answer is yes. Now, we're also very prudent expense managers, as you clearly see in the overall group expense ratio in our reinsurance business. Obviously, insurance expense ratio is elevated slightly because of the investments we're making, as well as the impact the remediation has on earned premium.

But as we go forward, I'd expect that phenomenon to sort of persist for a while because there are great opportunities for us to make prudent investments in the business, and the remediation puts a little bit of a lid on some earned premium. But we're going to manage it very carefully, Meyer, and on a quarter-by-quarter basis to ensure that the level of investments we're making is consistent with our ability to generate the margin we need.

Meyer Shields (Managing Director)

Perfect. Thanks so much.

Operator (participant)

And the next question comes from Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Joshua Shanker (Insurance Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, thank you for taking my question. In the prepared remarks and whatnot, in addition to the Eversports being sold, you're also exiting the medical stop-loss business. Why or why not is the medical stop-loss business a business that can't be taken care of in a one-renewal type methodology like the rest of the businesses? Why can't you just raise the price in the business that sticks, and what leaves, leaves?

Jim Williamson (President and CEO)

Yeah, Josh, it's Jim. Thanks for the question. We essentially non-renewed a major block, the block that was causing us difficulties in our medical stop-loss business at the beginning of 2024, and it is a block, but it has renewal dates that occur throughout the year, so it wasn't a matter of getting increased price. We didn't want to be on the business. We non-renewed it, and it just takes the year for the full impact to the financials to run through, which is now done, so we won't be talking about the runoff of medical stop-loss in 2025.

Joshua Shanker (Insurance Equity Research Analyst)

All right. And another quick one. Obviously, I think it's very clear your thoughts about the wildfire as it regards your book. As a general rule, should we think about Eversports being a 1% market share loss of major global events, or is there more ground-up sort of analysis in how you're thinking about your exposure to California wildfires?

Jim Williamson (President and CEO)

Sure, Josh. Jim again. Good question. Look, this 1% market share that we've indicated for this event is the result of exceptional underwriting. The simple fact is there are a number of large contributors to what will be an industry loss of pick whatever number you like. We're kind of in the 35-45 range. Some others like different numbers. That's fine. But a number of the major contributors to that industry loss are not clients of Everest. And the reason they're not clients of Everest is because we assessed the programs on offer and did not believe they offered us an adequate risk-adjusted return for the exposure involved. So we said no, and others said yes. And so you'll see different market shares, etc., which is a ground-up result of the underwriting actions that get taken.

There could be an entirely different loss in an entirely different market where we get different opportunities, and it'll result in a different market share of the loss. It's not about trying to create peanut butter and outcome. It's pursuing the best quality deals for all of the perils we take and all the different geographies we compete in all day, every day. And that's what we do here.

Joshua Shanker (Insurance Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you for the clear answers.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Alex Scott with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Alex Scott (Insurance Research Analyst)

Hi, good morning. I thought I'd ask you what your view is of the impact of the wildfires just on reinsurance pricing. And as you kind of head into mid-year, what do you anticipate? I mean, maybe also any comments you have on how it affects your aggregate treaties headed into wind season?

Jim Williamson (President and CEO)

Sure. Yeah, Alex, it's Jim. So look, I think obviously this is a big event, and whether you like the $35 billion number or $45 billion number or you prefer a number bigger than that, this is a major event. That certainly you would expect it to have a positive impact on prices. What I tend to hear from people is that if there was a move to decrease rates in a reasonable fashion at 1-1, which I indicated, we've seen 5%-15% off loss-free programs, that that's probably ameliorated. Obviously, it'll take time for that to play out, but look, I think you add that with the fact that a lot of our clients are looking to buy more overall cover. There's a lot of increased demand in the market.

And then you further look at the fact that those clients, if they have their choice, would rather do more of that cover with Everest. I think that means there's a terrific opportunity for us to continue to be very selective in the deals we're writing and to get terrific economics, which I think is a very favorable thing. Now, you mentioned aggregate deals. I don't know if you meant just our total exposure or you meant aggregate specifically. We're not a writer of aggregate covers for the most part. In terms of our total deployed capacity, if pricing is very attractive, we're ready, willing, able to do more for sure. If pricing is not as attractive, we do less. I mean, again, that's how we manage our renewal cycles as they come.

Alex Scott (Insurance Research Analyst)

That's really helpful. Thank you. Second one I wanted to ask was just around as we approach the Schedule P type disclosures that you all provide in your 10-K. And also just thinking through some of the conversations you've probably had with your investor base coming away from the initial pre-announcement of the reserve actions. I mean, is there anything that you would point to us that we should focus on beyond just some of the basics around pay to incurreds and trying to understand some of those things? As we go in and we're comparing and contrasting all of that, what do you think is the key to focus on and sort of, I guess, proof points around the actions that have been taken being enough?

Mark Kociancic (CFO and EVP)

Alex, it's Mark. So look, I think there's several factors to take into account. We tried to outline a bunch of them last week in our pre-call presentation and narrative. So several metrics on IBNR, the ultimate loss ratios. Ultimately, the global loss triangles, I think, supply the best granular data that you can use to compare. So for me, I mean, that's the best place to start. You'll get probably a bit more out of the K, but that part's going to give you, I think, what you ultimately will need. The second thing is really the commentary we've given on highlighting how that book has developed. So specific classes of business that were problematic, how we've gone about shaping the portfolio going forwards.

And I think that discipline and the commentary we're giving on a quarterly basis that reinforces the execution of our plan here on the remediation is critical to getting the confidence. And then when you get these quarterly measurements such as the K or the Q or the GLTs on an annual basis, you'll be able to see more clearly how the IBNR outstanding stacks up, how the ULRs are looking, just the overall business performance. And so I think that will give you that combination will give you the confidence level you're going to need over time.

Alex Scott (Insurance Research Analyst)

Thank you. And the next question comes from David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

David Motemaden (Senior Equity Research Analyst, Insurance and Business Services)

Thanks. Good morning. I had a question. It sounds like we've heard as well from some of your peers just the conditions and the casualty remarket have caused you guys to step back, which makes sense. I guess I'm wondering, it sounds like you guys non-renewed $750 million throughout the course of 2024. Sounds like that's continued here at 1-1. I'm wondering if you can help us think through just holistically what sort of catload we should be thinking about for Everest now that there's been a bigger shift towards property and short-tail lines from casualty.

Mark Kociancic (CFO and EVP)

So David, it's Mark. The catastrophe load is still broadly consistent in the multi-year approach we've taken since 2020. What we have done, and we started a couple of years ago, is really trying to make more of our gross exposure net. And so we had a fairly large reliance or impact from our cat bond issuance over the last several years and prior to 2020. And so we've reduced our reliance on those, and we're taking more of the gross on a net basis now. So you're seeing that appetite expand naturally because we believe the expected returns are still very attractive. I don't think the gross is growing very much. It's really more of a net that is expanding primarily because of the cat bonds.

Jim Williamson (President and CEO)

Yeah, David, this is Jim. I think that's spot on. Let me just step back for a moment, though, and approach it a little bit in terms of how we think about the cat book itself. Because the way we do this is really straightforward. I mean, we're trying to build a cat book that is high margin and also very resilient to loss so that in the event that there is an outsized cat loss somewhere in the world or you have a pretty big cat like a California wildfire that you don't necessarily expect a wildfire to be $40 billion or $50 billion, etc., you can still have a book that can earn a profit.

And in my mind, yes, the fact that there's less casualty in the denominator can move the percentage of how you think about the catload. But the fact is what we're trying to do is build a cat book that can manage its own losses and still turn a profit. And we've had multiple years now where there have been really outsized industry losses. And the year of Ian is a good example where we essentially in that year, which was a big year for cat losses, we got to a break-even point in our cat book. And that's at the core of what we're doing here. So I get the modeling aspects and the earned premium aspects, but it's about cat management to get to the outcomes we want.

David Motemaden (Senior Equity Research Analyst, Insurance and Business Services)

Got it. Understood. I appreciate that color. My follow-up question also just on the casualty reinsurance book, and it sounds like some of your peers have made an effort to enhance the flow of information and data capture with their cedants. Have you guys been doing something similar and stepped up your engagement with your cedants? If so, how far along in that process are you? Any findings you can share would be helpful.

Jim Williamson (President and CEO)

Yeah. I mean, absolutely. That's been a discipline of ours very consistently over the last several years, ensuring best quality data from all of our customers. And look, I think it goes well beyond just making sure that the renewal submissions are complete. For us, it's about having direct actuary-to-actuary discussions with incremental data sharing so that we can really understand the trends that are affecting our cedents' books. It's claims-to-claims conversations during the course of the year so that we understand how they're managing their claims volumes, what they're seeing in that underlying data. We obviously study all publicly available data very carefully. So it's multifaceted. It's been a consistent discipline of ours. Obviously, we welcome our competitors joining in that approach because it just will further enhance the data available to everyone.

But I think fundamentally, if we really want to move the needle on data quality and availability further, it's going to be about making sure that we're only deploying capacity to those clients who can demonstrate in their data that they're doing a good job managing their portfolios. Where we don't see that, we're moving away. Whether that's the data itself doesn't look good or the data doesn't exist, that's not for us. And so that's very fundamental to the discipline we're exercising.

David Motemaden (Senior Equity Research Analyst, Insurance and Business Services)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

And the next question comes from Brian Meredith with UBS. Please go ahead.

Brian Meredith (Managing Director)

Yes, thanks. Hey, Mark, any updates on what you think the tax rate will look like in 2025?

Mark Kociancic (CFO and EVP)

Yeah, so I would estimate a range clearly that's higher than the 11%-12% as we have a 15% rate coming into Bermuda. I would estimate our working range to be somewhere in the 17%-18% effective tax rate for the group as a whole. And that would assume kind of a normal distribution of geographic income. Obviously, cat vol or any other kind of large loss type impacts can skew it, but I'd say it's something like that. And that's the overall tax rate.

Brian Meredith (Managing Director)

Appreciate it. That's helpful. And then second question also, just any thoughts on what cash flow could look like this year given some of the actions you're taking with the portfolio expected to be below 2024?

Mark Kociancic (CFO and EVP)

I think we'll be in a similar range. We have outperformed our expected cash flow forecasts for the plans the last few years. I've been pleasantly surprised with that. I'd say one of the biggest factors is really natural catastrophes. I think our reserve or loss payment patterns are pretty good in that respect for what we're projecting in 2025. And it's probably the cat load that'll determine whether or not we hit something close to the $5 billion this year.

Brian Meredith (Managing Director)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

And the next question comes from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Elyse Greenspan (MD, Equity Research and Insurance)

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question is on the California fire losses, right? So you guys came out with a range that's a little bit less, right, from what we saw from some other reinsurers that have gone as high as $50 billion. I'm just trying to get a sense of what would be the discrepancy between your insured loss estimate and others. And I thought, I'm assuming you guys I think you said you don't have a lot of losses from cedents right now. So can you just verify that last comment and then just help us reconcile why your insured range might be a little bit less than what some other reinsurers are seeing?

Jim Williamson (President and CEO)

Yeah, Elyse, it's Jim. Well, I don't know how other people get to their numbers, so I can't really reconcile it for you. But what I can say is if you look at the industry loss estimates that are floating around, there's a pretty broad range on it. I think we're kind of on the upper end of the types of numbers I've seen. If you like $50 billion better than our loss, I would expect it to be roughly $500 million. The reason why I'm feeling pretty good about the range that I described earlier, and I feel great about the performance of our team vis-à-vis that market share number, is because of the quality of the underwriting that took place. And I can't emphasize this enough.

We passed up deliberately for very specific reasons on a number of deals that got completely clobbered in this event. And that's how you ladder upgrade underwriting over time. So very proud of what the team has done that way. And look, obviously, we're in conversations with our cedents. I think the issue is loss adjusting. An event like this is very challenging. There have been public access issues that are pretty well described. I think it'll take time for people to home in on their own numbers, which is why we're still working with a range and not a point estimate. But I'm pretty confident given what we are on and what we are not on in the numbers that I shared with you earlier.

Matthew Rohrmann (SVP, Finance and IR)

Thanks. And then my follow-up was on reserves. I'm looking at the presentation that you guys provided last week on your reinsurance casualty reserves and then also on your insurance casualty reserves. And it does look like the accident year loss picks for recent years in your casualty reinsurance book are being booked substantially better than casualty insurance. Can you just kind of talk through what would be causing the difference between those? Maybe it's business mix, just trying to reconcile why you'd be booking U.S. casualty reinsurance significantly better than insurance. And then have you guys said what loss costs you're assuming for your casualty reinsurance book?

Jim Williamson (President and CEO)

Yeah, Elyse, it's Jim again. Look, I mean, the explanation is pretty straightforward, and I'm going to be blunt. Our clients for our reinsurance portfolio, we've been very selective in our ceding selection process. They are top quartile underwriters of casualty. And they've demonstrated very consistently that they outperform the average loss ratio in the market by a substantial margin. We've seen that in our data. We see that in the submissions for the renewals. And obviously, wherever we don't continue to see that, we move away, which is why we've moved away from $750 million of business. And that's why you get to a loss ratio that looks the way it does. And then you contrast that with our insurance business, was not top quartile, overconcentrated in certain classes, etc., that get you to a much worse outcome.

So there's really not a linkage between the two that you should have in your mind. It's two entirely different portfolios. In terms of expected trend level, I mean, we are very prudent across both divisions. And I would say consistent across both divisions. That doesn't mean the number will always be the same, but the approach is very consistent. It's based on the data. It's based on, I think, a very conservative view of the development of the casualty market.

Mark Kociancic (CFO and EVP)

Yeah. Elyse, just a couple of points on that last piece on the loss trend. So we gave a figure last week in the call on Tuesday, roughly an average of 12% for excess umbrella, GL, and Commercial Auto. So depending on the mix of business, it's something approaching that for both sides of the equation, reinsurance and insurance.

Elyse Greenspan (MD, Equity Research and Insurance)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

And the next question comes from Michael Zaremski with BML. Please go ahead.

Michael Zaremski (Research Analyst and Casualty Insurance)

Hey, good morning. Thanks. Dan on for Mike. Just maybe going back to the insurance loss ratio, we could see looking at the deck last week, it's running about low to mid-90s now. Just wondering if you could maybe quantify how much worse of a loss ratio is associated with the non-renewed business versus the retained business. Thanks.

Mark Kociancic (CFO and EVP)

Mike, it's Mark. It really varies by line. I will say, let me break it down into a few components for you. So I would start with the other segment, which contains that sports and leisure book that we essentially put into runoff. That for us, I think, was the most disappointing. And you're looking at a triple-digit type of loss ratio. It's predominantly excess and GL lines of business. And then when you get into some of the other classes of business, having the insurance segment, you've got a varying range of ultimate loss ratios.

So in some cases, you're dealing with the triple digits, the 100, 110, 120 type levels. You've clearly got other classes of casualty that are performing much better than that. It really varies. And clearly, we're focused on rate adequacy there. So in terms of the renewal process going forward, we're on this with just a laser focus in making sure that it's either non-renewed or it's renewed with the rate that's necessary.

Michael Zaremski (Research Analyst and Casualty Insurance)

Thanks. Then maybe could you walk through that same dynamic maybe for the $750 million you walked away from in reinsurance casualty?

Jim Williamson (President and CEO)

Yeah. Yeah, sure, Dan. It's Jim. Look, it's going to vary very much by deal. And I'm not going to characterize it in terms of a number. But I will tell you, in some cases, because remember, we started with a pretty high-quality book of cedents. So we're not dealing with the types of challenges that Mark described relative to our insurance business. It's more of just when you evaluate the whole portfolio, there's clearly cedents who, from our perspective, maybe they're not keeping up with trend, or there's something in their claims process that we feel is not fit for purpose at this moment in the casualty cycle and with the challenges of social inflation. It could be they've expanded their appetite in a way that we don't think is favorable.

So it's not always that there's this major distinction or inferior loss ratio relative to our average portfolio. It's the underwriting that indicates to us that we're not going to have the confidence we want to have going forward, but not nearly the same deltas in performance as what Mark described.

Operator (participant)

And the next question comes from Wes Carmichael with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Wes Carmichael (Senior Analyst and U.S. Life Insurance)

Hey, thanks. Good morning. In your commentary on capital management, Mark, I think there was a high-level comment on less growth overall, which I guess is understandable currently. But is there any framing you can do on how you're thinking about top line going forward, especially if you're thinking about the potentially non-renewed business? What's the kind of underlying growth you're thinking about going forward?

Mark Kociancic (CFO and EVP)

So we're not providing guidance. I think from a qualitative standpoint, you've seen us be pretty disciplined on the casualty shedding or underwriting in terms of the reinsurance segment. That's going to continue. Clearly, there are pockets of casualty I expect us to add in the normal course of business. It's not all a shedding story. Both sides, reinsurance, insurance. Property remains very attractive. I mean, the rate adequacy is clearly there. That's something we definitely want to lean into where it makes sense. I just don't see the same level of growth that we had, for example, a couple of years ago in both sides. Last point, our international insurance business has been growing double digits for quite some time.

Broadly speaking, lion's share of it is a short-tail book. It's been performing very well. I would expect that type of natural growth to continue as we're relatively small in the market and starting from a small base. So that's something that I would expect to be a positive for us in 2025.

Wes Carmichael (Senior Analyst and U.S. Life Insurance)

Thanks. That's helpful, and I think there was a release last for Everest. Can you just talk about how strategic it is for Everest to maintain its current ratings?

Mark Kociancic (CFO and EVP)

Sorry, you cut out for a second. Wes, a release, you said?

Wes Carmichael (Senior Analyst and U.S. Life Insurance)

Yeah. I think S&P changed its outlook to negative. I'm just wondering how maintaining ratings right now is to Everest strategically?

Mark Kociancic (CFO and EVP)

It's fundamental to offer the A-plus financial strength rating. That's clearly secure, not in danger at all. The S&P negative outlook, it's something we respect. We'll work with them. Not something that concerns us very much, but clearly something we have to manage. The overall financial strength is in a solid spot.

Wes Carmichael (Senior Analyst and U.S. Life Insurance)

Understood. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

This concludes our question and answer session. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.