Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- Emerson expects continued high single-digit sales growth in China, anticipating mid- to high single-digit growth for the year, driven by strong performance in the core process hybrid business, particularly in power and chemical sectors.
- Confidence in achieving the 31% margin target for test and measurement by year 5, with accelerated synergy actions increasing cost synergies by $20 million to $185 million, with no offsets anticipated.
- Recovery in discrete automation markets expected in the second half, with orders and sales turning positive in Q3 and Q4 respectively, indicating improved performance and growth in this segment.
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NI Acquisition Synergies and Margins
Q: Why accelerate NI synergies and impact on margins?
A: Emerson increased cost synergies from the NI acquisition by $20 million, accelerating the time frame from 5 years to 3 years. Despite higher synergies, the 31% margin target remains unchanged, as they may invest in growth opportunities. Management is confident in faster execution due to cultural similarities and effective integration. -
Organic Order Visibility and Growth Outlook
Q: Can you sustain mid-single-digit organic order growth?
A: Emerson expects to finish the year with mid-single-digit order growth, supported by a strong MRO business (about 65% of Q1 revenue) and a robust project funnel. They booked approximately $400 million across over 90 projects in Q1, with continued activity in energy transition, sustainability, and metals and mining. -
Discrete Market Recovery Outlook
Q: When will discrete markets recover?
A: Emerson anticipates a recovery in discrete orders in the second half of the year, with orders improving in Q3 and Q4 and sales turning positive in Q4 due to easier comps. -
Process and Hybrid Markets Strength
Q: Are process markets lagging discrete softness?
A: Management believes process and hybrid markets are supported by robust secular drivers like energy security and sustainability, and are not expected to follow discrete market softness. They did not experience a boom-bust cycle and see disciplined capital spending by customers. -
Impact of LNG Export Permitting Decision
Q: How does halted LNG export permitting affect you?
A: Although disappointed by the U.S. decision to hold LNG export permits, Emerson doesn't foresee a meaningful impact on 2024 projects. Global activities in Qatar, Mozambique, and Guyana provide ample opportunities, and current North American projects have necessary approvals. -
China Sales and Outlook
Q: What is the outlook for China sales?
A: Emerson grew China sales by high single digits in the quarter and expects mid- to high single-digit growth for the year. They remain robust due to secular drivers, with power and chemical sectors driving growth. -
Margin Expectations and Incrementals
Q: Why did incremental margin guidance lower despite beat?
A: The full-year incremental margin guidance decreased due to foreign exchange impacts, which added one point with lower profitability. Core drivers like volume leverage and price/cost remain the same. -
Free Cash Flow Guidance
Q: Why maintain free cash flow guidance despite better outlook?
A: Emerson maintained its free cash flow guidance at $2.6 to $2.7 billion. While earnings and sales increased, yielding about $50 million more cash flow, it still falls within the guided range. Acquisition-related costs and elevated CapEx are tracking as expected. -
Supply Chain Normalization
Q: Are supply chains normalized now?
A: Supply chains have normalized, improving Emerson's ability to procure electronics and increase production. The Measurement and Analytical business is the last to normalize, with overdue backlog shipping through Q2. -
R&D Transformation at Test and Measurement
Q: How are you transforming R&D at Test and Measurement?
A: Emerson is prioritizing projects to focus on critical growth opportunities in key markets like EVs and semiconductors. By bringing discipline to resource allocation, they aim to drive more innovation at a better cost. -
Revenue Synergies from NI Acquisition
Q: What are expectations for NI revenue synergies?
A: Emerson is exploring revenue synergies in markets like EV batteries and semiconductors, leveraging customer overlap and joint capabilities from R&D through production. While not ready to quantify, they are actively working on opportunities. -
Project Funnel and Profitability
Q: Any differences in profitability or service attachment?
A: There are no significant differences in profitability between growth platforms and traditional projects. Emerson manages a $150 billion installed base, with service contracts and commitments for replacements and maintenance. -
Price/Cost Expectations and Material Inflation
Q: Has price/cost expectation changed for the year?
A: Price contribution remains at 2 points for both the quarter and the year, with no change expected. Net material inflation is improving due to opportunities on direct materials and lower logistics costs. -
Measurement and Analytical Business Growth
Q: What's driving strong growth in Measurement and Analytical?
A: The 28% sales growth is driven by supply chain normalization and easier comparisons due to prior challenges. Orders are up high single digits, reflecting a healthy demand environment. -
Impact of Foreign Exchange on Margins
Q: How did FX affect margin guidance?
A: Foreign exchange assumptions added one point to the leverage number with lower profitability, leading to a lower incremental margin guidance despite a Q1 beat. -
National Instruments Sales Guidance
Q: Is NI turning slower than expected?
A: The full-year NI sales guidance remains at $1.5 to $1.6 billion, consistent with prior guidance. The previously mentioned $1.6 billion was rounded, and there's no indication of slower performance. -
Backlog and Order Activity
Q: How is your backlog and order activity trending?
A: Backlog stands at $7.6 billion, up significantly. Emerson booked about $400 million in projects in Q1 and continues to see strong order activity supported by MRO business and project funnel growth. -
Sales Synergies Timeline from NI
Q: When will you realize sales synergies from NI?
A: Emerson is working on customer-specific sales synergies but is likely 3 to 6 months away from publicly detailing plans. Focus is currently on integrating cost synergies. -
Outlook on Last 9 Months Organic Growth
Q: Any change in organic growth expectations?
A: No change in organic outlook; Emerson remains positive due to a strong environment and execution. -
SAF Win with DG Fuels Scope
Q: What is included in the DG Fuels SAF win?
A: The win includes the entire automation stack: final control elements, sensing elements, DeltaV control system, and analytics packages—a holistic, full-package 100% Emerson solution. -
Second Quarter EPS Guidance
Q: Why is Q2 EPS only slightly up sequentially?
A: The modest increase in Q2 EPS is due to lower test and measurement earnings sequentially, with no significant changes in the base business mix or trajectory.