Sign in

    Emerson Electric Co (EMR)

    Q4 2024 Summary

    Published Jan 28, 2025, 9:22 PM UTC
    Initial Price$111.06June 30, 2024
    Final Price$109.37September 30, 2024
    Price Change$-1.69
    % Change-1.52%
    • Emerson is evolving towards software-defined automation with a three-phase approach over a 3 to 5-year journey, applicable to both brownfield and greenfield environments, opening significant growth opportunities.
    • Power generation represents approximately 9% of Emerson's revenue, experiencing order acceleration into the mid to high single digits, driven by investments in data centers, grid infrastructure, and rejuvenation of nuclear facilities, with expectations for continued growth in 2025.
    • Emerson's backlog remains strong at $7.2 billion, providing a healthy level to support next year's guidance, indicating confidence in the order and sales environment going into 2025.
    • The transition to software-defined automation is a multi-phase journey that could take 3 to 5 years per phase, depending on customer adoption rates, introducing uncertainty and potential delays in achieving strategic objectives.
    • Test & Measurement sales growth is expected to ramp in the second half of 2025 after consuming backlog this year, indicating potential near-term weakness in demand and reliance on future orders growth.
    • The shift towards software-defined automation may face challenges in brownfield environments, as implementing new systems in existing facilities can be complex, potentially hindering adoption rates.
    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Net Sales Growth (y/y)
    Q4 2024 vs. Q4 2023
    ~15% for FY 2024
    Grew from 4,09To 4,619(≈ +12.9% year-over-year)
    Missed
    Adjusted EPS (FY)
    Full Fiscal Year 2024
    $5.45 to $5.50 for FY 2024
    Summed Q1–Q4 EPS: 0.25+ 0.87+ 0.57+ 1.74≈ 3.43 (reported basis)
    Missed
    Test & Measurement Sales (FY)
    Full Fiscal Year 2024
    $1.45 billion to $1.50 billion for FY 2024
    Q1: 382+ Q2: 367+ Q3: 355+ Q4: 36= 1,140 (millions of USD)
    Missed
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Test & Measurement

    Faced weaker demand and backlog reduction; synergy benefits noted; recovery shifted to second half of 2025.

    Expected mid-single-digit sales growth and high single-digit order growth in 2025; segment EBITDA margin at 24% aided by $100M synergies.

    Consistently mentioned with improving outlook and continued synergy execution.

    Discrete automation

    Experienced softness with orders down mid-single digits, slower recovery expected; signs of positivity by Q4 or early 2025.

    Orders turned positive in Q4; recovery expected in 2025.

    Bearish sentiment improving as orders turn positive later than initially forecast.

    Semiconductor market

    Listed as a weak spot delaying T&M recovery, with optimism for turnaround in 2025.

    One of four T&M markets showing good momentum; appears to have bottomed, supporting H2 2025 recovery.

    Sentiment shifting from weak to improving as bottoming signals emerge.

    Chemical market

    Varied performance: strong in Q2, weaker in Q3, and anticipated to pick up globally.

    Continues to be weaker in China; potential recovery expected in 2025, especially in the Middle East.

    Mixed mentions but with an expectation of improving demand next year.

    Process & hybrid markets

    Consistently strong, driven by energy, LNG, sustainability, and capital investments; mid-single-digit order growth persisted each quarter.

    Grew mid-single digits for the year; active in LNG, decarbonization, life sciences; expecting moderated but sustained growth.

    Stable strength across all quarters, supported by secular drivers.

    Aerospace & Defense (ADG)

    Generally strong due to government spending; noted as a bright spot within T&M. No mention in Q1.

    Among three T&M markets with favorable momentum; contributes to H2 2025 recovery.

    Consistent positivity within T&M, continuing to offset weakness elsewhere.

    Industrial automation

    Faced discrete market challenges; process and hybrid businesses performed better; delayed recoveries in factory automation segments.

    Emphasized software-defined automation strategy; alignment with AspenTech for enterprise control solutions.

    Continued focus on software integration despite slower discrete recovery.

    China market outlook

    Reported sluggish performance across most segments; recovery timing pushed out, especially for T&M.

    -3% in 2024; chemical and discrete both weak, with expected low to mid-single-digit growth in 2025.

    Sentiment remains cautious but forecasts modest rebound next year.

    Operating leverage & margin

    Ranged from mid-30s to high-40s; improved gross margins above 50%; synergy actions drove higher profitability.

    FY24 leverage at 47% (ex-T&M); 26% adj. segment EBITDA margin; mid-40s leverage expected in 2025.

    Sustained margin expansion with synergy-driven leverage.

    Free cash flow

    Strong FCF performance each quarter; year-end targets consistently raised due to higher earnings and improved working capital.

    $2.9B in FY24 (16.6% margin), up 23% y/y; guiding $3.2–3.3B in FY25.

    Persistent improvement with robust returns to shareholders.

    Acquisition synergies

    NI synergy guidance increased during the year; AspenTech synergy focus on integrated software solutions for sustainability, process industries.

    National Instruments: $100M realized in 2024, targeting $200M over three years. AspenTech: integration for cost efficiencies, neutral EPS impact in 2025.

    Accelerated cost synergy actions; continued integration efforts.

    Backlog levels & order funnel

    Generally strong backlog with seasonal fluctuations; $7.4B in Q3, also stable in Q2–Q1; funnel repeatedly expanded with substantial project wins.

    Backlog at $7.2B entering FY25, T&M at $400M. Large project funnel at $11.2B, driven by LNG, life sciences, sustainability.

    Stable backlog with growing large-project pipeline.

    Sustainability & decarbonization

    Consistent references to biofuels, hydrogen, carbon capture, and broader energy transition projects across quarters.

    Major focus on carbon capture (e.g., Orthos North Sea) and other energy transition segments.

    Continual emphasis as a top growth driver.

    Regional project activity

    Similar outlook: Middle East LNG momentum, Europe energy and sustainability, North America life sciences projects; stable or growing each quarter.

    Middle East spurred by LNG and chemicals; North America strong in power/life sciences, paused LNG awards; Europe invests in energy transition.

    Robust across geographies driven by large-scale projects and sustainability.

    Energy security & digital transformation

    Cited in Q1 and Q2 as macro drivers supporting growth, particularly in LNG, process industries, and digital solutions.

    Highlighted as secular trends driving automation and MRO demand; focus on digitalization for plant efficiency.

    Reaffirmed as core themes underpinning multi-year growth.

    MRO business

    Consistently near mid-60s mix; slightly softer in North America in Q3 but generally robust.

    Stable at ~64% of sales, driven by capital/MRO investments in multiple verticals.

    Remains a steady base of revenue with modest fluctuations.

    1. AspenTech Acquisition Impact
      Q: Will AspenTech be EPS neutral in FY '25?
      A: Management expects the acquisition of AspenTech to be EPS neutral in fiscal 2025, considering synergies and the seasonality of AspenTech's business, which is weighted toward the back half of the year.

    2. Discrete Recovery Outlook
      Q: Are you confident in discrete recovery in FY '25?
      A: Discrete automation orders turned positive in Q4, indicating a bottoming out and setting up for recovery in 2025. Test & Measurement orders were down 7% last quarter but showed sequential improvement. Management sees early signs of market recovery, giving confidence for the second half of 2025.

    3. China Growth Expectations
      Q: What are your assumptions for China's recovery?
      A: The power segment in China is performing well. Management anticipates low to mid-single-digit growth in China next year, expecting chemical recovery in the first half and discrete recovery in the second half of 2025, aided by economic stimulus and green shoots in the chemical space.

    4. Power Business Growth
      Q: Can you provide details on power business outlook?
      A: Power generation represents approximately 9% of company revenue. They've seen order acceleration into the mid- to high single digits over the year. Growth is driven by data center power demands, extending life of existing facilities, reactivating mothballed nuclear plants, and building new combined cycle facilities. Nuclear constitutes about 20% of the power business.

    5. Test & Measurement Guidance
      Q: What is embedded for Test & Measurement in FY '25?
      A: Test & Measurement sales are expected to grow mid-single digits in 2025, with orders growing at a higher rate. The plan includes high single-digit order growth and sales ramping in the second half, following backlog consumption this year.

    6. Customer Delays and Project Approvals
      Q: Have you seen any customer delays or hesitancy?
      A: Management has not observed any delays or hesitancy from customers in the Middle East, North America, or Europe. All project shipments planned for Q4 were shipped, and the capital cycle remains strong in energy, energy transition, power, and LNG sectors.

    7. Backlog and Book-to-Bill
      Q: How are you thinking about backlog and book-to-bill for '25?
      A: The backlog decreased from Q3 due to seasonality but remains at a healthy level of $7.2 billion, supporting the guidance for next year. Management expects book-to-bill to remain stable going into 2025.

    8. Software-Defined Automation Evolution
      Q: What's the timeline for software-defined automation?
      A: Management outlines a three-phase, multi-year journey toward software-defined automation, starting at the site level and progressing to enterprise-wide implementation. Each phase may take 3 to 5 years, depending on adoption rates. Solutions will be applicable to both brownfield and greenfield environments.

    9. Safety & Productivity Exit Options
      Q: Any updates on exploring exit options for Safety & Productivity?
      A: Management is considering all opportunities, including a cash sale and other creative options, but won't comment further on the structure at this time.

    10. Megaprojects and Chemical Sector
      Q: Any acceleration in large project starts, especially in chemicals?
      A: Chemical activity is strong in the Middle East and expected to return in North America post-elections. While China is watched cautiously, economic stimulus may boost chemical activity there and in Southeast Asia. The current plan doesn't heavily rely on chemical recovery but would benefit if it materializes, particularly in Europe and China.