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EI

Evergy, Inc. (EVRG)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered GAAP EPS of $0.34 and adjusted EPS of $0.35, up year over year from $0.25 and $0.27, respectively, driven by recovery on regulated investments and weather‑normalized demand growth despite mild weather headwinds .
  • Full‑year 2024 GAAP EPS was $3.79 and adjusted EPS was $3.81; management reaffirmed 2025 adjusted/GAAP EPS guidance of $3.92–$4.12 and long‑term 4–6% EPS CAGR, expecting to trend to the top half beginning in 2026 .
  • Evergy raised its 2025–2029 capital plan to $17.5B (from $16.2B in Q3) and now targets ~8.5% annualized rate base growth; financing includes $2.8B of equity/equity‑like 2026–2029, with no common stock issuance contemplated in 2025 .
  • Management highlighted a robust >10 GW large‑customer pipeline and “advanced negotiations” with two large data center customers totaling ~1.6 GW, with large‑load tariffs filed in both KS and MO; regulatory momentum includes KS HB 2527 already law and MO SB4 passed the Senate .
  • The Board declared a $0.6675/share dividend (payable Mar 21, 2025); near‑term stock catalysts include large‑load tariff approvals, incremental data center announcements, and progress on MO SB4 and KS/MO resource approvals .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Execution and guidance delivery: “Overcoming weather headwinds, we reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.81 – within our guidance range of $3.73 to $3.93” (CEO) .
  • Strategic pipeline and large loads: Management is “in advanced negotiations with two large data center customers,” as part of an >10 GW opportunity set; pipeline now ~11.2 GW, with ~1.6 GW in finalizing agreements and ~0.8 GW actively building .
  • Regulatory progress and capex visibility: KS HB 2527 enacted; MO SB4 passed Senate to expand supportive tools; five‑year capex increased to $17.5B with ~8.5% annualized rate base growth through 2029 .

What Went Wrong

  • Weather and operating cost pressure: 2024 weather was an estimated $(0.11) below normal for EPS; higher depreciation/interest offset drivers in both Q4 and full year .
  • Equity overhang in out‑years: Updated financing plan includes $2.8B of equity/equity‑like 2026–2029 and convertible dilution headwind of ~$0.04 in the 2025 EPS walk (assumes share price above conversion threshold) .
  • Estimates benchmarking: S&P Global consensus for Q4 was unavailable (data limit), limiting ability to quantify beat/miss vs Street for revenue/EPS; company did not disclose quarterly revenue in the press release .

Financial Results

Quarterly results vs prior periods

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Net Income ($USD Millions)$207.0 $465.6 $78.2
GAAP EPS ($)$0.90 $2.02 $0.34
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.90 $2.02 $0.35
Adjusted Earnings ($USD Millions)$207.0 $465.6 $80.6
Dividend per Share ($)$0.6425 (declared for Sep 2024) $0.6675 (declared for Dec 2024) $0.6675 (payable Mar 21, 2025)

Notes:

  • Company did not disclose quarterly revenue in the Q4 press release/slides; S&P Global consensus estimates could not be retrieved due to daily limit. Therefore, revenue and margin vs estimates are not shown .

Selected KPIs and trends

KPIValuePeriod/Context
Weather‑normalized retail sales growth (Total Retail)1.1%2024 vs 2023
2025 total retail sales growth forecast2.4%2025 vs 2024 (includes ramp of Meta and Panasonic)
Economic development pipeline~11.2 GW total; ~0.8 GW actively building; ~1.6 GW finalizing agreementsQ4 update
2025–2029 capital plan$17.5B (by year: $2.541B, $3.141B, $3.546B, $4.198B, $4.030B)Raised from $16.2B prior
Rate base growth (annualized)~8.5% (2024E–2029E)Updated target
Year‑end rate base (est.)$19.5B (2024E) → $29–$30B (2029E)Jurisdictional mix: KS 52%, MO 32%, FERC 16%
Dividend$0.6675 per sharePayable Mar 21, 2025 (record Mar 10, 2025)

Segment/Jurisdictional allocation (structural context)

MetricDetail
Jurisdictional rate base mixKansas 52%, Missouri 32%, FERC 16%
Five‑year capex mix (2025E–2029E)New Generation $6,170M; Transmission $3,270M; Distribution $4,731M; General/IT/Other $1,304M; Legacy Generation $1,981M (Total ~$17,456M)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted/GAAP EPS2025$3.92–$4.12 (initiated in Q3) Reaffirmed $3.92–$4.12 Maintained
Long‑term EPS CAGR2025–20294–6%; expect upper half starting 2026 Reaffirmed; expect upper half starting 2026 Maintained
Five‑year Capex Plan2025–2029$16.2B (as of Q3) $17.5B Raised
Rate Base Growth (annualized)2024E–2029E~8% (as discussed Q4 call prepared commentary) ~8.5% Raised
Load Growth OutlookThrough 20292–3% (extended through 2029 at Q3) Reaffirmed 2–3% (through 2029) Maintained
DividendQuarterly$0.6675 (increased at Q3) $0.6675 declared for Mar 21, 2025 Maintained
Financing Plan2026–2029Equity needs contemplated for out years (Q3) $2.8B equity/equity‑like; no common issuance in 2025 Clarified

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Large load/data centers (AI/Tech)Highlighted Google/Meta wins; >6 GW pipeline; exploring rate design; active negotiations (Q2/Q3) Pipeline ~11.2 GW; in advanced negotiations with two data center customers (~1.6 GW); large‑load tariffs filed KS/MO Strengthening pipeline; nearer‑term tariff progress
Demand growthForecast 2–3% through 2028 (Q2); extended to 2029 (Q3) Reaffirmed 2–3% through 2029; 2025 growth forecast 2.4% Sustained higher trajectory
Regulatory/legislativeKS HB 2527 (PISA/CWIP) enacted; MO PISA expansion under discussion (Q2/Q3) MO SB4 passed Senate; KS rate case filed; large‑load tariffs filed Positive momentum
Generation resource planAnnounced two 705 MW CCGTs and 3 solar farms (Q3) Added combined‑cycle allocation to MO West; CCN/predetermination dockets in process Advancing approvals and scheduling
Financing and equityNo equity through 2026 (prior plan); future equity expected (Q2/Q3) Equity/equity‑like ~$2.8B (2026–2029); potential ATM setup; no 2025 issuance Higher out‑year equity, more visibility

Management Commentary

  • “2024 marked a turning point for our company … we are in advanced negotiations with two large data center customers, reflecting the vitality of our region and the exciting opportunities ahead.” – David Campbell, CEO .
  • “We are reaffirming our 2025 adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.92 to $4.12 per share … From 2026 to 2029, we anticipate being in the top half of our 4% to 6% target range.” – David Campbell .
  • “Our projected capital investments over the five years through 2029 now stand at $17.5 billion … our forecasted equity issuances across 2026 to 2029 is now forecasted to be $2.8 billion … Our 2025 guidance does not contemplate new equity issuances this year.” – Bryan Buckler, CFO .
  • “Based on these announcements, we are reaffirming our weather‑normalized demand growth forecast of 2% to 3% through 2029.” – David Campbell .

Q&A Highlights

  • Timeline and sizing for large‑load wins: Management expects announcements later in 2025; the two advanced projects have grown to ~1.6 GW (aggregate), with load impacts beginning 2027–2028 depending on agreements .
  • Kansas rate case capital structure: The commission will address cap structure within the body of the case; Evergy will pursue a constructive settlement as in the prior case .
  • Missouri SB4 impact: Seen as “transformative” for enabling dispatchable generation and CWIP; passed the Senate, moving to the House; session ends in May .
  • Financing cadence and equity: Equity/equity‑like ~$2.8B across 2026–2029; possible ATM setup in 2025 but settlements not earlier than 2026; no common issuance in 2025 .
  • Load/demand mapping to resources: Actively building category ~800 MW; ‘finalizing agreements’ could add ~600 MW by end 2029; resource plans and filings are being aligned to serve this trajectory .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to a data‑access limitation on the day of retrieval; as a result, we cannot quantify beat/miss versus Street for the quarter at this time .
  • Management reiterated 2025 EPS guidance of $3.92–$4.12 and long‑term 4–6% EPS CAGR, supporting a stable estimates backdrop anchored by regulated investment recovery and measured O&M/D&A/interest headwinds .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core earnings in line: Adjusted EPS of $3.81 in 2024 within guidance despite mild weather; Q4 adjusted EPS rose to $0.35 YoY, supported by new rates, FERC investments, and demand .
  • Guidance confidence sustained: 2025 EPS $3.92–$4.12 reaffirmed; long‑term 4–6% EPS CAGR expected in top half from 2026 as large‑customer loads ramp .
  • Capex/Rate base up: Five‑year capex raised to $17.5B with ~8.5% rate base CAGR 2024–2029, enhancing long‑term earnings power, subject to financing and regulatory execution .
  • Load catalysts: ~11.2 GW pipeline and two advanced data center negotiations (~1.6 GW) present upside to load growth beyond the already embedded Google/Meta/Panasonic ramps .
  • Financing watchpoints: Equity/equity‑like needs of ~$2.8B (2026–2029) and expected $0.04 EPS dilution from convertibles embedded in 2025 plan; 2025 has no common issuance contemplated .
  • Regulatory milestones: KS rate case filed ($196M request, 10.5% ROE, ~52% equity ratio) with resolution targeted by late Q3; MO SB4 passage in the House and KS/MO large‑load tariff outcomes are key 2025 catalysts .
  • Near‑term trading implications: Stock should be sensitive to (1) confirmation of large‑load tariffs, (2) any announced data center wins (~1.6 GW), and (3) MO SB4 legislative progress—each raising visibility on capex deployment and earnings trajectory .
Disclosure: All figures, quotes, guidance, and qualitative statements are sourced directly from Evergy’s Q4 2024 8‑K/press release, earnings slides, and Q2/Q3/Q4 transcripts as cited in brackets. S&P Global consensus data for Q4 2024 was unavailable due to a daily access limit at time of retrieval.

Sources:

  • Q4 2024 8‑K and Exhibit 99.1 press release:
  • Q4 2024 press release (Business Wire):
  • Q4 2024 earnings call transcript:
  • Q4 2024 earnings slides:
  • Q3 2024 press release:
  • Q3 2024 earnings call transcript:
  • Q2 2024 press release & transcript:
  • Oct 21, 2024 press release (CCGTs):