Q4 2024 Summary
Published Feb 27, 2025, 9:16 PM UTC- Evergy anticipates significant load growth from large new customers, potentially increasing their load growth projections from 2%-3% to 4%-4.5%, driven by finalized agreements totaling 1.6 gigawatts of demand, which could substantially boost revenues.
- The company's increased capital expenditure plan of $17.5 billion over the next five years, primarily focused on grid modernization and new generation capacity, is expected to result in an annualized rate base growth of approximately 8.5% through 2029, higher than previously forecasted, supporting higher earnings growth.
- Evergy expects that the addition of these large customers could reduce their equity financing needs by hundreds of millions of dollars over the five-year period, improving financial flexibility and potentially enhancing shareholder returns.
- Significant Equity Issuances May Dilute Shareholders: Evergy plans to issue approximately $2.8 billion in equity from 2026 to 2029, an increase of $600 million over the previous forecast, to fund its expanded $17.5 billion capital plan. This significant equity issuance could dilute existing shareholders and pressure EPS growth.
- Dependence on Unfinalized Large Customer Agreements: The company's growth projections rely heavily on securing large new customers, with an expected additional 1.6 gigawatts of load. Delays or failures in finalizing these agreements could impact Evergy's projected 2% to 3% load growth and potentially increase equity needs.
- Regulatory Challenges in Kansas May Impact Financials: Evergy is facing regulatory uncertainties in Kansas regarding the capital structure in its rate case. The Kansas Corporation Commission rejected the company's procedural request, indicating that substantive issues will be addressed in the rate case, which could affect allowed returns and financial planning.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +6% (from $1,187.9M to $1,257.4M) | Total revenue increased by approximately $69.5M (6% YoY), suggesting that improved market conditions and favorable rate adjustments—similar to those seen in prior initiatives—helped drive higher retail and wholesale performance. This recovery builds on earlier efforts that laid the groundwork for revenue growth. |
Operating Income | +23% (from $180.6M to $222.2M) | Operating income rose by about $41.6M (23% YoY), indicating improved operational efficiencies and revenue quality. This change partly reflects a rebound from previous period challenges such as regulatory liabilities or higher depreciation expenses, with ongoing cost-control measures supporting higher margins. |
Net Income | +33% (from $61.1M to $81.3M) | Net income increased by roughly $20.2M (33% YoY), driven by a stronger bottom line through enhanced operational performance and potential tax benefits. The improvement suggests that earlier period expense issues were largely resolved, positioning the company for continued profitability. |
EPS – Basic/Diluted | +35%+ (from $0.25 to $0.34) | EPS grew by $0.09, more than 35% YoY, reflecting the combined effect of higher net income and effective expense management. This result benefits from the resolution of non-recurring charges seen in the prior period and reinforces the company's focus on improved profitability metrics moving forward. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
2025 Adjusted EPS Guidance | FY 2025 | Range: $3.92–$4.12 per share, Midpoint: $4.02 per share | Range: $3.92–$4.12 per share, Midpoint: $4.02 per share | no change |
Long-Term Adjusted EPS Growth Target | FY 2025 | 4%–6% CAGR through 2029 | 4%–6% annually through 2029 | no change |
Weather-Normalized Demand Growth Forecast | FY 2025 | 2%–3% CAGR through 2029 | 2%–3% annual growth through 2029 | no change |
Capital Investment Plan | FY 2025 | $16.2 billion in investments from 2025 through 2029 | $17.5 billion over the 5 years from 2025 to 2029 | raised |
Rate Base Growth | FY 2025 | CAGR of approximately 8% through 2029 | Expected annualized growth of 8.5% through 2029 | raised |
Equity Issuance Forecast | FY 2025 | No common stock issuance for 2025; planned issuances of $400M in 2026/2027 with higher amounts in 2028/2029 | Total equity issuance forecast of $2.8 billion across 2026–2029; no common stock issuance in 2025 | no prior guidance |
Dividend Growth | FY 2025 | 4% increase resulting in an annualized dividend of $2.67 per share | Annualized dividend of $2.67 per share reflecting a 4% increase | no change |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EPS | FY 2024 | $3.73 to $3.93 per share | 3.79 per share (sum of Q1 2024 EPS 0.53, Q2 2024 EPS 0.90, Q3 2024 EPS 2.02, and Q4 2024 EPS 0.34) | Met |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
Large New Customer Demand Growth and Load Additions | Across Q1–Q3, Evergy repeatedly highlighted major economic development wins (Google, Panasonic, Meta) supporting a 2%–3% weather‐normalized demand growth outlook, with evolving pipelines and phased load add-ons ( ). | In Q4, the call detailed advanced negotiations with large customers adding significant load (800 MW confirmed; 1.6 GW in advanced talks and up to 9 GW in discussions), with clear forward-looking projections for load growth starting in 2027/2028 ( ). | The theme remains consistently bullish, with expanded pipeline details and further forward guidance—demonstrating stronger momentum with modest timing risks. |
Capital Expenditure Expansion and Grid Modernization Investments | Q1–Q3 discussions outlined evolving capital plans—from a $12.5 billion investment in Q2 to a $16.2 billion plan in Q3—and notable grid modernization spending (e.g. $2.3 billion in modernizing the grid), emphasizing infrastructure upgrades for reliability ( ). | Q4 presented an upgraded 5‐year capital plan of $17.5 billion with increased emphasis on transmission/distribution projects and balanced financing approaches to support sustained rate base growth ( ). | Investments are steadily rising, reinforcing a more aggressive and optimistic infrastructure strategy with increased scope and financial commitment. |
Equity Issuance and Shareholder Dilution Risks | In Q1–Q3, the company maintained a cautious stance—forecasting no new common stock issuance through 2026 and considering alternative equity instruments to mitigate dilution while managing a stable credit profile ( ). | Q4 continued this cautious approach but added nuance by addressing a $1.4 billion convertible debt impact and revising forecasted equity issuances (totaling $2.8 billion for 2026–2029), signaling a balanced concern over dilution risks amid a more aggressive capital plan ( ). | The sentiment remains cautious but shows increased detail; while the risk of dilution persists, efforts to moderate equity needs through improved load growth are evident. |
Regulatory Uncertainty and Rate Case Challenges | Q1 discussions emphasized HB 2527’s benefits and planned workshops to address regulatory lag, with Q2 and Q3 further discussing rate case pacing and capital structure challenges in Kansas ( ). | Q4 provided more granular details, including a formal rate review filing for Kansas Central seeking a $196 million revenue increase and outlining a clear schedule for staff, testimony, and settlement conferences ( ). | This recurring challenge is being managed constructively—the latest update shows a move toward greater specificity and proactive scheduling in a traditionally complex regulatory environment. |
Operational Execution and Timing Risks for Securing New Customer Agreements | Earlier calls (Q1–Q3) acknowledged timing uncertainties and complexities in negotiations with large customers, with Q3 featuring CEO comments on complex, multi-party discussions affecting the timing of announcements ( ). | Q4 expanded on these risks by noting that finalizing agreements (including a potential 1.6 GW opportunity) may be delayed pending tariff clarity, while emphasizing robust operational execution measures to maintain service reliability ( ). | While overall execution remains optimistic, there is a more nuanced recognition of timing risks and the need for balanced tariff frameworks to align new customer agreements. |
Infrastructure Constraints and Capacity Expansion Challenges | Q1 highlighted concerns over transmission, substation, and permitting lead times to support new loads, with Q2 and Q3 explicitly referencing “capacity constraints” and challenges in accommodating additional load amid aggressive growth ( ). | Q4 did not explicitly discuss capacity constraints, with the focus shifting toward the increased capital plan and broader infrastructure investments, implying that such constraints may be being addressed more proactively. | This topic has been de‐emphasized in Q4—suggesting that while capacity challenges remain a background issue, aggressive capital investments are seen as mitigating these constraints. |
Legislative and Policy Developments Impacting Investment Returns | Throughout Q1 to Q3, HB 2527 was repeatedly mentioned as a legislative tool to reduce regulatory lag and improve return competitiveness, with planned workshops to discuss capital structure further ( ). | In Q4, in addition to reaffirming the positive impact of HB 2527, Evergy introduced details on Missouri Senate Bill 4, broadening the policy discussion and its impact on CWIP and cost recovery mechanisms ( ). | Legislative developments remain a constant positive catalyst—with Q4 adding state-specific updates that further reinforce the constructive regulatory environment for improved investment returns. |
Earnings Growth and Rate Base Expansion Dynamics | Q1 and Q2 set the stage with an annual adjusted EPS growth target of 4%–6% and a relatively modest rate base growth (approximately 6%), with some concerns about lag effects requiring mechanisms like PISA ( ). | Q4 maintained the 4%–6% EPS growth target but showcased an improved outlook through an increased capital plan and a higher expected average rate base growth of about 8.5% from 2024 to 2029 ( ). | The outlook has become more bullish—upward revisions in capital spending and rate base expansion dynamics signal enhanced growth potential while maintaining steady earnings targets. |
-
Load Growth and Guidance Updates
Q: When will you finalize 1.6 GW agreements and update guidance?
A: We expect to finalize these agreements over the course of the year. Typically, we provide updates in the third quarter call or at year-end, depending on customer activity. We include new agreements in our guidance once customers make their announcements. -
Equity Needs Reduction from New Load
Q: How will new 500 MW customer impact equity needs?
A: Adding a 500 MW customer could reduce our equity needs by hundreds of millions of dollars over the five-year period. Load growth could increase from 2–3% to 4–4.5% with the addition of these loads. -
Missouri Legislation SB4 Impact
Q: What's the timeline and impact of SB4 legislation in Missouri?
A: The SB4 legislation is expected to pass by May and is transformative. It allows CWIP for new generation, including natural gas, which hasn't been permitted in Missouri for 50 years. This positions Missouri to support infrastructure investment and growth. -
Large Load Tariff Protections
Q: What protections are included in the large load tariff?
A: The tariff includes minimum bill requirements, 15-year contract periods, and exit fees. These protections ensure a win-win for existing and new customers and are consistent with other jurisdictions. -
Announcing Agreements Before Tariff Approval
Q: Do you need tariff approval before announcing 1.6 GW agreements?
A: No, it's common to proceed while tariffs are negotiated in parallel. Announcements are not dependent on finalized tariffs, as seen with previous customers like Panasonic. -
CapEx Impact from New Generation Needs
Q: How does new load affect generation plans and CapEx timing?
A: We added 50% of a CCGT coming online in 2030 to our capital plan. We're developing transmission and generation plans to serve new customers, which will affect CapEx. Some customers may bring renewable options like solar or storage, impacting capacity needs. -
Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Updates
Q: Will you amend the IRP for new generation needs?
A: Yes, we will update our IRP filings in March and April to incorporate changes. This includes additional generation capacity and timelines requiring action sooner rather than later. -
Load Forecast and Generation Matching
Q: How does existing generation cover projected load growth?
A: We've included 500 MW from actively building customers in our 2–3% load growth forecast. If we reach 1.1 GW by 2029, it would be additive, and we'll need to ensure transmission and generation capacity to serve that load. -
Kansas Rate Case and Capital Structure
Q: What's next for the capital structure issue in Kansas GRC?
A: The issue will be addressed in the rate case proceeding. We aim to reach a constructive settlement, as we did previously. -
Considering New Corporate Structures
Q: Are you considering new structures to handle large investments?
A: While we have not announced plans for a Genco-type structure, we are open to creative solutions given the growth opportunities.