Executive Summary

Q4 2024 EPS was $0.64 GAAP and $0.64 adjusted, up vs Q4 2023 ($0.62 GAAP, $0.60 adjusted). Revenue was $5.47B, up slightly vs Q4 2023 ($5.37B), with operating margin ~20.0% supported by rate increases and tax repairs at PECO and PHI; ComEd headwinds from lower allowed ROE and pension asset return absence persisted .
2025 adjusted EPS guidance initiated at $2.64–$2.74 and dividend guided to ~$1.60 (~60% payout), with a raised four‑year capex plan to $38B (2025–2028), ~10% above prior plan, implying 7.4% rate base CAGR and 5–7% EPS CAGR target through 2028 .
Financing updated: ~$1.4B incremental equity to fund ~40% of $3.5B capex increase (implies ~$700M/year 2025–2028); S&P upgraded Exelon corporate senior unsecured rating to BBB+ (Feb 7, 2025), citing FFO/debt trajectory of 13–14% through 2028 .
Operational reliability remained top quartile across all utilities; Pepco and ComEd were top decile in 2024 SAIFI/SAIDI; ~90% of rate base now covered by established recovery mechanisms through 2026–2027 following DC, PA and IL orders .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Reliability and safety: “All utilities sustained top quartile or better performance… Pepco Holdings in the top decile” (ComEd best in class since 2017), supporting premium value narrative .
- Regulatory wins: Final Q4 orders across Pepco DC (MYP), PECO electric & gas, ComEd Refiled Grid Plan/MRP enhance cost recovery visibility; ~90% rate base under mechanisms through 2026–2027 .
- Strategic growth: Capex plan lifted to $38B (2025–2028), with transmission driving >80% of the increase; expected EPS CAGR 5–7% with midpoint or better, dividend payout ~60% .
- Quote: “Exelon has delivered against our financial goals for the third straight year… positioned us as a leader in the energy transformation” — CEO Calvin Butler .
What Went Wrong
- ComEd earnings pressure: Lower allowed ROE, no pension asset return, and lower carrying cost recovery on CMC regulatory asset weighed on distribution earnings timing .
- Higher costs: Increased depreciation/amortization and interest expense at BGE and PHI; holding-company interest costs stepped up YoY .
- Estimate context unavailable: Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) not retrieved at time of query, limiting formal beat/miss assessment. S&P Global estimates were unavailable due to request limit; comparisons to consensus cannot be provided.

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$5,368	$6,154	$5,471
GAAP EPS ($)	$0.62	$0.70	$0.64
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.60	$0.71	$0.64
Operating Income ($USD Millions)	$1,092	$1,196	$1,097
Operating Income Margin (%)	20.3% (calc from cited figures)	19.4% (calc from cited figures)	20.0% (calc from cited figures)
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$617	$707	$647
Net Income Margin (%)	11.5% (calc from cited figures)	11.5% (calc from cited figures)	11.8% (calc from cited figures)

Segment breakdown (Q4 2024):

Segment	Operating Revenues ($USD Millions)	GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)
ComEd	$1,816	$243
PECO	$998	$195
BGE	$1,157	$175
PHI (Pepco, DPL, ACE)	$1,509	$138

Key drivers (Q4 2024): Higher utility earnings from distribution/transmission rate increases (BGE/PHI), PECO tax repairs deduction, lower storm/contracting costs; offset by ComEd lower ROE, pension asset return absence, and lower carrying costs on CMC regulatory asset; higher D&A and interest at BGE/PHI .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EPS	FY 2025	N/A (new)	$2.64–$2.74 per share	Introduced
Dividend	FY 2025	$1.52 FY 2024 (actual)	~$1.60 FY 2025 target (~60% payout)	Raised
Quarterly Dividend	Q1 2025	N/A	$0.40 per share declared (payable Mar 14, 2025)	Set
Capex Plan	2024–2027 vs 2025–2028	$34.5B (2024–2027)	$38.0B (2025–2028), +10% vs prior	Raised
Equity Issuance	2024–2027 vs 2025–2028	$1.6B total (2024–2027)	+$1.4B incremental for 2025–2028; implies ~$700M/year	Raised
Rate Base Growth	2023–2027 vs 2024–2028	~7.5% (2023–2027)	~7.4% (2024–2028)	Maintained ~flat

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (Prior-2)	Q3 2024 (Prior-1)	Q4 2024 (Current)	Trend
AI/Data centers & large load	Strong interest across jurisdictions; ComEd: 5 GW in engineering; deposits to protect customers; pipeline disclosure prudence	Pipeline grew from 6 GW to 11 GW; deposits reduced rate base in 2024 by ~$400M; transmission up $700M at ComEd plan-over-plan	17+ GW anticipated large load growth; >$1B transmission not yet in guidance; ComEd won 15 major projects	Accelerating
Co-location & FERC clarity	205 filings to clarify tariff treatment; not against co-location, but cost allocation and network load fairness	Continued push for clarity; rate design/reliability/resource adequacy buckets identified	Awaiting near-term decisions (e.g., by ~Feb 24); engaging PJM/FERC; supportive of reforms (ER25-712, ER25-778 approvals)	Policy momentum
Resource adequacy & PJM capacity	Address affordability; more generation & transmission; expand EE/DG programs	Legislative urgency; double-digit bill impacts possible at BGE; accelerate transmission procurements	States working on 45+ bills; exploring longer-term contracts, utility build, IRP structures; balance affordability & security	Intensifying
Regulatory outcomes	ComEd refiled grid/MRP on track; PECO EL/GAS settlements recommended; Pepco DC order expected	Proposed orders favorable (ComEd ALJ PO, PECO RD); Pepco DC in Q4; ~90% rate base coverage anticipated	Final orders achieved Q4 (DC, PA, IL), solid recovery mechanisms through 2026–2027	Delivered
Cost management & O&M	O&M growth managed ~2% despite inflation	Continued cost discipline; TSA billing offsets	~$100M sustainable savings in 2024; ~$550M customer O&M savings vs inflation baseline since 2016	Executing

Management Commentary

Strategic message: “Exelon has delivered against our financial goals for the third straight year… leader in the energy transformation… excited to continue our journey of innovation” — CEO Calvin Butler .
Financial stance: “Initiating 2025 adjusted operating earnings guidance of $2.64–$2.74… expect 5–7% annualized earnings growth through 2028” — CFO Jeanne Jones .
Balance sheet: “S&P upgrade… FFO/Debt outlook 13–14% through 2028; ~$2.8B equity 2025–2028 implies ~$700M/year, plus ~$3B corporate debt” .
Reliability & customer value: “Top quartile reliability across utilities; Pepco Holdings top decile; customer rates ~21% below largest U.S. cities” .

Q&A Highlights

Maryland reconciliations: Outcome expected by H1 2025; multiyear plans viewed as aligning investments with policy while keeping distribution rates competitive .
FERC 205/co-location: Seeking near-term clarity; supportive of reforms enabling shovel-ready projects and surplus interconnection services; principles: network load treatment, proper cost allocation, reliability studies .
Large-load deposits: Deposits materially reduced 2024 rate base (~$400M); protects existing customers; as projects progress, capex and load additions rise in parallel .
CMC regulatory asset: Lower carrying cost recovery at ComEd is a headwind; Illinois solutions pursued with stakeholders amid broader energy security efforts .
Speed to connect & capacity: Utilities generally able to meet large-load timing with creative solutions; interconnection queue and system capacity dictate timelines .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue estimates were unavailable at time of query; a formal beat/miss vs Wall Street consensus cannot be assessed. S&P Global estimates were unavailable due to request limits.
Reported results: Q4 2024 GAAP and adjusted EPS $0.64; revenue $5.47B. Drivers were rate increases (BGE/PHI), PECO tax repairs, and lower storm/contracting costs; ComEd headwinds included lower allowed ROE and pension asset return absence .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Visibility improved: With DC, PA and IL final orders, ~90% of rate base benefits from established recovery mechanisms through 2026–2027, supporting execution of a larger capex plan and earnings growth trajectory .
Growth skew to transmission: $38B (2025–2028) capex with >80% of the plan-over-plan increase driven by transmission needs (large load, generation mix changes, resilience), positioning EXC for regulated growth at 7.4% rate base CAGR .
Financing balanced: ~$700M/year equity (2025–2028) and ~$3B corporate debt contemplated; S&P upgrade to BBB+ provides flexibility as FFO/debt trends 13–14% by 2028 .
Reliability/affordability edge: Top-quartile reliability and disciplined O&M underpin customer-rate competitiveness; management targets dividend growth consistent with ~60% payout and 5–7% EPS CAGR .
Near-term catalysts: FERC decisions on co-location/tariff clarity (around late Feb 2025), Maryland reconciliation outcomes (H1 2025), pace of large-load/data center commitments and associated deposits/capex shaping; watch guidance cadence and equity issuance timing .
Risk watch: ComEd ROE/pension-asset return dynamics; interest expense drift across OpCos; execution risks on accelerated transmission programs; potential affordability pressures from PJM capacity outcomes mitigated via EE/DG and transmission solutions .

References:

Q4 2024 8‑K and press release: .
Q4 2024 earnings call transcript: .
Prior quarters: Q3 2024 8‑K and transcript: ; Q2 2024 transcript: .

EXELON CORP (EXC)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary