Fortive - Q3 2023
October 25, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
My name is Krista, and I'll be your conference facilitator this afternoon. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Fortive Corporation third quarter 2023 earnings results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After a speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during that time, simply press Star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the pound key. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Elena Rosman, Vice President of investor relations. Ms. Rosman, you may begin your conference.
Thank you, Krista, and thank you everyone for joining us on today's call. With us today are Jim Lico, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Chuck McLaughlin, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We present certain non-GAAP financial measures on today's call. Information required by Regulation G are available on the Investors section of our website at Fortive.com. Our statements on period-to-period increases or decreases refer to year-over-year comparisons, unless otherwise specified. During the call, we will make forward-looking statements, including statements regarding events or developments that we expect or anticipate will or may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks, and actual results might differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make today.
Information regarding these risk factors is available in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date that they are made, and we do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jim.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Thanks, Elena. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'll begin on slide three. In the third quarter, we continued to see the benefits of our portfolio strategy with core growth and margin expansion in all segments.Q3 core revenue growth was 2.5%, tempered by specific headwinds in healthcare and slowing in parts of sensing in China. Strong execution by our teams drove substantial improvement in gross and operating margins, earnings, and free cash flow. Adjusted gross margins expanded by 160 basis points to 59.7%. Adjusted operating margins increased by 150 basis points to 25.9%, and adjusted earnings per share grew 8%, and free cash flow increased 25% to $384 million.
As you can see, our strategy is delivering results with enhanced portfolio positions, innovative new products, and dedication to the Fortive Business System, allowing us to consistently perform despite a mixed macro environment. As we look ahead, our attractive funnel of bolt-on and adjacent M&A opportunities across our three segments and five connected workflows are expected to drive upside in 2024, as exemplified by the acquisition of EA Elektro-Automatik, as well as three other bolt-ons in the quarter. Turning to slide 4, we wanted to highlight how the year is playing out relative to our initial expectations and begin to frame our thinking for 2024. Beginning on the left, hardware product orders were stronger in the first half of the year, as traction on new product launches and leverage to secular drivers provided more backlog to buffer the normalization of supply chains.
Hardware product orders were down mid-single-digit, which we believe reflects continued solid demand, with orders up over 20% on a three-year stack basis in the third quarter. Point-of-sale trends in North America and Western Europe have remained healthy, even as channels normalized, while we did see slowing specifically in China and parts of sensing in the quarter. Software and services continued to demonstrate their resilience, with high single-digit growth across our facilities and asset lifecycle, environmental health and safety, and perioperative customer workflows. The healthcare environment continues to improve. Core growth in the third quarter was constrained by the clearing of channel inventory in ASP and continued weakness in the bioprocessing market in Invetech.
Turning to the right-hand side of the slide, we are delivering 2023 performance ahead of our initial expectations coming into the year, with mid-single-digit core growth, with adjusted operating profit margin incrementals over 60%, delivering nearly 2x the margin expansion planned in the year. We are accelerating our capital deployment in the quarter, with robust free cash flow and ample firepower to front-fund attractive M&A opportunities. Further evidence that our strategy to create a more durable growth company is working is highlighted on slide 5. Our innovation and portfolio strategy continues to build on leadership positions in our connected workflows, benefiting from customer investments in key megatrends, including automation and digitization, the energy transition, and the need for productivity solutions, contributing to our improved through-cycle performance.
We have several good examples across Fortive, including providing customer software solutions to digitize and automate processes and deliver customer success in AI-driven ecosystems. Provation is partnering to enable real-time AI in the GI workflow, contributing to their strong win rates and accelerated mid-teens growth in 2023. In the third quarter, Fluke added Azima DLI, a bolt-on acquisition, accelerating their AI-enabled predictive maintenance capabilities with vibration analytics and remote condition monitoring. Fortive is also helping to solve our customers' toughest energy transition challenges with breakthrough innovations. Fluke and Qualitrol are both benefiting from strong demand in solar, EV storage equipment, and the build-out and modernization of electric grid infrastructure.... In addition, Fluke acquired Solmetric to further solidify their leadership position in the fast-growing distributed energy market with high-precision solar test and measurement products. In this environment, our customers are putting a premium on productivity.
ASP is launching new sterilization monitoring products, broadening their leading position in biological indicators, allowing customers to reprocess surgical instruments with greater speed and efficiency. Further, Gordian acquired NSR, a natural extension of their pre-construction workflow, which provides cost data that will allow them to expand job order contracting in the U.K,. Turning to slide six, we are pleased to announce our agreement to acquire EA Elektro-Automatik, enhancing our leading position in advanced electronic test and measurement solutions. EA specializes in the high-power segment of the market that serves a number of growing end markets, including data centers, energy storage, e-mobility, grid modernization, and hydrogen power alternatives. EA expands Tektronix's addressable market and complements and diversifies their offerings in the fastest-growing areas of the power market, solving for power density and efficiency challenges and creating a more sustainable and electrified world.
With an estimated $175 million of revenue and low 40s operating margins in 2023, EA is expected to be accretive to our growth and margins. Tektronix global scale, including a 10x increase in go-to-market resources, accelerates EA's global market expansion. Further, the Fortive Business System will be a valuable tool in achieving commercial, manufacturing, and operational synergies, creating unparalleled value for customers and shareholders. As a result, we are targeting an attractive double-digit return profile in year five and earnings accretion that ramps as we de-lever, given our robust free cash flow. In summary, the acquisition of EA reflects our commitment to more durable and higher growth and ability to drive higher returns for Fortive for years to come. Turning to slide 7. Fortive Business System continues to be a differentiator for us, enabling our business to drive innovation and profitable growth.
We recently completed our annual CEO Kaizen Week. This event is a hallmark for demonstrating our culture of continuous improvement and our ability to deliver outstanding results in our operating companies in one powerful week. As always, we bring together our most senior Fortive leaders, including our segment leaders and many of our operating company presidents, with a total of 41 teams and over 500 team members, driving significant improvements in growth, margins, free cash flow, and breakthrough innovations. Some Kaizen highlights include: at ISC and Qualitrol, their events realized 100%-125% improvements in productivity. ServiceChannel reduced their time to onboard new customers, and Provation had a 2x improvement in the conversion of marketing leads, both enabling more and faster ARR growth.
Tektronix deployed a copilot, leveraging AI to bring technical expertise to customers and internal automation to significantly improve their efficiency and customer experience. Fluke Health Solutions had breakthrough results in dosimetry reporting, reducing customer response time by more than 50%. In summary, this year's event continued to emphasize the power of the Fortive Business System and the breadth of applications across our portfolio, driving sustained results. I will now provide more details on each of our three segments, beginning with Intelligent Operating Solutions on Slide 8. IOS grew core revenue by 4%, with good growth in most regions. Margins continued to benefit from our portfolio evolution, with high-margin software growth, as well as price realization and productivity benefits, driving 230 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion.
Highlights in the quarter included: Fluke core revenues were up low single-digit, as solid core demand and NPI traction buffered expected channel normalization. EMA continued its strong performance with another quarter of double-digit revenue growth. Fluke secured a number of wins in secular growth markets, including a sizable calibration order from an aerospace and defense customer. Fluke also continues to see success with new product introductions, with the recent launch of MecQ, a first-to-industry acoustic imager for diagnosing mechanical failures. EHS revenues grew mid-single-digit, with double-digit iNET growth at ISC and another strong quarter for SaaS and Intelex, with over 50% growth in ACV customer bookings in the quarter. In addition, Marathon Petroleum, our largest iNET and Safer Systems customer, recognized Industrial Scientific with their Corporate Exceptional Partnership Award. Facility and asset lifecycle revenues grew high single-digit, driven by continued strength in SaaS.
Gordian continues to drive market penetration as more customers utilize their job order contracting platform to procure and manage their large infrastructure projects. Accruent secured an agreement with Xavier University to provide its facility management software, which included cross-selling with Gordian, and Service Channel launched several innovations for both subscriber and provider software releases, contributing to strong overall growth. Turning now to Slide 9, Precision Technologies reported 1% core revenue growth and adjusted operating margins of 26.5%, expanding 60 basis points, reflecting strong price realization and productivity benefits. Some highlights in the quarter include Tektronix is executing on robust backlog in power and digital test and measurement solutions and delivering low single-digit core growth and outstanding operating margin expansion.
This included over 20% revenue growth in North America, reflecting continued customer investments to solve the proliferation of new power design challenges for batteries, EVs, and industrial applications. Tek orders continued to normalize off a 40% two-year stack at the end of 2022. Double-digit order declines at Tek were greatest in China. However, we did see weekly patterns improve sequentially as we moved through the quarter. Further, we expect continued lead time improvement and channel normalization. With orders returning to growth in the coming months, as customers continue to prioritize investments in semiconductor advancements, AI-enabled compute, and electrification of everything. Sensing Technologies saw another quarter of strong orders and revenue growth at Qualitrol. This included a meaningful deal in the quarter from a large U.S. utility customer for full transformer asset monitoring solutions.
Elsewhere in sensing, slowing in China was reflected in lower than expected orders and revenue. Lastly, Pacific Scientific EMC reported another quarter of double-digit sales growth as it benefits from Kaizen activity to improve manufacturing capacity and operational execution to deliver on record backlog. Moving now to Slide 10 in Advanced Healthcare Solutions. Core revenues were up 2%, reflecting improved underlying sterilization demand, partially offset by higher than expected U.S. channel inventory in ASP. For the third quarter, the total impact resulted in $11 million in less revenue, impacting AHS core growth by over 300 basis points and adjusted operating margins by almost 200 basis points. Elsewhere, high-growth markets saw revenues of high single digits, driven by robust growth in Latin America, as well as good growth in Asia. Adjusted operating profit margins increased by 200 basis points year-over-year.
We are seeing traction on pricing actions, as well as the benefits of the productivity initiatives reflected in higher margins. Additional highlights in the quarter include: Censis continued to grow its subscription revenue, with its CensiTrac SaaS business increasing mid-teens, benefiting from continued traction in both new logo expansion and cross-selling opportunities as customers standardize on their leading instrument tracking software solution. Fluke Health Solutions revenue increased slightly, as high single-digit growth in its core dosimetry business was partially offset by project timing. We also saw a continued market weakness in Invitech, accounting for approximately half of the slower than expected growth in the segment in the third quarter. Lastly, Provation had another quarter of excellent growth, over 20%, driven by continued APAC SaaS adoption and new logo success. Previewing the fourth quarter, the ASP channel transition is now complete, and we expect growth to accelerate in AHS.
This includes the initial ramp of ASP's recently launched portfolio of steam sterilization monitoring products, which will further build over several quarters as they expand their global reach. We continue to expect margins to ramp in Q4 and 2024, driven by consumables growth, price realization, and productivity actions. With that, I'll pass it over to Chuck, who will provide more color on our third quarter financials and our 2023 outlook, starting on slide 11.
Charles E. McLaughlin (SVP and CFO)
Thanks, Jim, and hello, everyone. We generated year-over-year Core Revenue Growth of 2.5%, which included single-digit growth in North America. As Jim mentioned, we saw 20% growth in Tektronix and acceleration in our software and recurring revenue streams, which more than offset moderation in some of the sensing businesses. Western Europe revenue was up slightly as growth in software was offset by normalizing growth in hardware products. Asia saw continued strength in India, up mid-teens, and Japan up high single digits, which was more than offset by low double-digit decline in China. We had anticipated growth in China would slow in the second half as we lapped outsized growth in prior years. For example, Tektronix was down over 20% in China in the quarter. However, it was still up 20% on a two-year stack basis.
We also saw continued slowing in sensing, given the current macro environment, while AHS grew high single digit as electric procedure volumes improved in the quarter. Turning to Slide 12, we show operating performance highlights for the third quarter. Adjusted gross margins increased 160 basis points to a record 59.7%. On a two-year stack basis, they are up an impressive 240 basis points, driven by the benefits of our portfolio evolution, the continued application of FBS initiatives, and strong price realization. Adjusted operating margins expanded 150 basis points to 25.9% or 300 basis points over the last two years, reflecting higher gross margins and the benefits of the productivity initiatives we executed earlier this year. Adjusted earnings per share increased 8% to $0.85, despite higher year-over-year interest and tax expense.
Earnings are up 30% on a two-year stack basis, and free cash flow was $384 million, reflecting a 25% increase over the prior year and over 50% growth the last two years as we continue to grow earnings and effectively manage working capital. Turning now to the guide on Slide 13 and the outlook for the remainder of the year. For the fourth quarter, we are adjusting our range to reflect caution around the macro in China and delayed recovery in Invetech. Core revenue growth is expected to be in the range of 1.5%-3%.
Adjusted operating profit margins are anticipated to increase by approximately 150 basis points, and adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $0.92-$0.95, representing 5%-8% growth, and includes $5 million of one-time additional corporate expense related to the remediation plans following a cybersecurity incident in early October. We also plan to proactively fund an incremental $35 million of productivity initiatives in the fourth quarter, which are excluded from our adjusted EPS outlook, with accreted benefits expected in 2024. Finally, we expect free cash flow of $415 million, representing conversion of approximately 125% of adjusted net income.
Turning to the full year recap, we are reiterating the midpoint of our earnings guidance for 2023, which is coming in at the high end of the outlook we set at the beginning of the year. Things have largely played out as we expected, with some upside driven by secular tailwinds, driving market expansion, new customer innovations, resiliency of roughly 40% of recurring revenue, elevated backlogs, and carryover pricing in our hardware products businesses, buffering moderating demand as order rates normalized throughout the year. As a result, we have core growth and margin expansion in each of our segments. Core growth for the year reported is now expected to be approximately 5%, with adjusted profit margins anticipated to increase approximately 150 basis points.
Adjusted diluted earnings per share is now expected in the range of $3.37-$3.40, having raised our guidance twice in the year, and we continue to expect free cash flow of $1.25 billion, representing a conversion of 105% of adjusted net income and 21% free cash flow margin. With that, I'll pass it back to Jim to provide some closing remarks.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Thanks, Chuck. I'll start the wrap up on slide 14. Consistent with 2023, we believe we will see sustained core growth and robust margin expansion and free cash flow growth in 2024, despite the evolving macro environment. What continues to differentiate Fortive is our ability to deliver mid-single-digit through-cycle growth, reinforcing our portfolio durability and the power of FBS to deliver strong margin expansion. The consistency of our execution reflects the strength of our product vitality and alignment to high-growth secular trends, continued solid customer demand, and the buffer of excess backlog, adding to a resilient growth profile. In healthcare, we expect a continued modest pace of industry recovery to drive stronger growth and incremental margins as we lap discrete 2023 headwinds.
Lastly, in software and other recurring, our efforts to increase demand generation and strengthen our go-to-market capabilities is expected to drive strong SaaS and licensed revenue growth in 2024. This brings me to slide 15 and how we drive differentiated performance and value creation for our shareholders. As we finalize 2023, we are demonstrating another year of strong execution, delivering record gross margins, operating margins, and free cash flow. These sustained results underscore the power of the Fortive Business System to relentlessly drive continuous improvement throughout our portfolio. As we showed at our Investor Day in May, by executing the Fortive formula, we expect to roughly double our earnings per share and generate more than $8 billion of free cash flow over the next five years.
Our acceleration of capital deployment, as demonstrated this quarter, further positions Fortive as a higher growth cash flow compounder and a premier company delivering exceptional value to shareholders. With that, I'll turn it back to Elena.
Thanks, Jim. That concludes our formal comments. Krista, we are now ready to take questions.
Operator (participant)
As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on the telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell (Managing Director, U.S. Industrials Equity Research)
Oh, hi, good morning. Maybe just wanted to start with the precision business, just how the guidance sort of has moved around at Tektronix. So it seemed like the test and measurement market was getting worse a few months ago, and you raised the Tektronix revenue guide for the year, and now it's come down. So maybe just help us understand, was it simply China suddenly getting very bad in late Q3 that caused such a revision? And, you know, maybe give us some context now with that PT segment being down organically in Q4, what sort of history tells us the duration of that sales downturn should be for the PT segment?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah. Good morning, Julian, it's Jim. And I think, you know, when you look at it, you're right. When we look at kind of where we're at now, we're back to where we were, and I think that at high single-digit, I think for the year for, for tech. You know, I think we're really what we saw, and you, you sort of answered it in the question, is probably a little bit more of a step down in China. We obviously have good strength in China on a two-year basis. I think in the third quarter, you know, I think we're, like, 30% on a two-year stack.
But I think what we saw in China was a little bit of inventory, a little bit of cautiousness on the part of a number of distributor and customers and direct customers around all around China. Not really necessarily industry-based, maybe more broad-based. I would call it more caution than anything. That's probably the single biggest aspect to it. We did have some pushouts, a little bit from a couple of large orders that, you know, that we saw as well. But I would say the big Pareto bar on that conversation related to tech is really, is really what is really China.
The good news on it, and you know, what we've seen, as you know, over the last several quarters, with PMIs, where they've been, semiconductor index down, number of factors that would suggest that, you know, some. We were coming into what we've been calling normalization. I think we've been consistent in that regard. We'll see tech get a little bit better in orders in the fourth quarter, than they were, than they were in the third. And, our 90-day funnels actually look better now than they have been. So, I think point of sale, in a number of places, in North America and in Europe, as an example, we're good, and we'll probably continue to be pretty good. We actually, China POS was actually decent in Q3 as well.
So, if I were just to say, stay high-centered on tech, I'd say high bar for our China trend, third quarter, probably the low point in many respects, will start to get a little bit better as we get towards the end of the year.
Julian Mitchell (Managing Director, U.S. Industrials Equity Research)
Thanks. And then any broad thoughts on sort of PT overall? You-
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah
Julian Mitchell (Managing Director, U.S. Industrials Equity Research)
You've got down organic sales this quarter. You know, how quickly are you assuming that flips positive?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah, I think what we've been talking about strategically around PT has been, you know, that we thought we've done, we've done a lot of work in tech to try to move that growth rate, make it less cyclical. Our service business, as an example, in the third quarter, was up 3%, which is, I think, a good, good environment relative to to sort of stabilizing the business a little bit. We haven't done as much work in sensing. We've called that a low single digit business. And as you know, we've you know, we've had double-digit growth there here for a couple of years. So we anticipated that a normalization there. I think what we've seen over the last sort of 60-90 days is what I would call more slowing.
And so the PT number really in Q4 is really around sensing. Some of that's China, some of that's some direct OEMs that have sort of pushed out blanket orders into 2024. Typically, some of that is our lead times coming down. Some of that, I think is a little bit of slowness. We talked about it on the second quarter call, automation, principally in Europe, that continues. HVAC, U.S. and Europe, also a little slower, and then, as I mentioned, China. So that really is the PT story in the fourth quarter, relative to kind of the change in the guide.
Julian Mitchell (Managing Director, U.S. Industrials Equity Research)
Thanks a lot. Just one very quick follow-up, healthcare. You know, it's been a sort of a litany of issues for a few years. Once we get through the channel transition, which it sounds like that's finished, you know, do we get back to sort of mid-single digit plus growth in 2024? Is that the sort of natural entitlement as you see it without any one-time negatives?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah, I mean, we'll get out of guiding for 2024, but I do think we'll see mid-single digit for sure, maybe just to sort of characterize what we saw from an ASP perspective. Obviously, this channel transition, we called out about $10 million. It was about $6 million more than we anticipated in the third quarter. And some of it is really why we have the strategy to go direct. It was really about the lack of visibility we really had on natural demand. When we take out those sort of adjustments for channel inventory in the second and the third, what we see is on a two-year stack, mid-single digit growth in the second, third, and fourth. So we really see more consistency. Obviously, some noise there we would prefer not to have as well.
But I think where we stand into the fourth quarter, the channel situation behind us, we feel good about that. We feel good about the work the team's done. Obviously, a little bit more... You know, we're not proud of, of a little bit more noise than anticipated. We'll certainly, we'll certainly take, you know, take that. But, but where we stand today, I think is in a much better position strategically, should set us up well for 2024. And quite frankly, that when you see the, the margin expansion in, in health in the, in the third, 200 basis points, we've talked about that margin continued improvement. I think even on a little bit less revenue, we had good margin expansion.
So really, when you look at it, it's kind of a good walk into Q4 and certainly sets us up for what we think will be a much better 2024.
Julian Mitchell (Managing Director, U.S. Industrials Equity Research)
Great. Thanks so much.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Thank you, Julian.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Hi, Steve.
Steve Tusa (Managing Director)
Hey, guys. How's it going?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Great.
Steve Tusa (Managing Director)
So, just on the hardware backlog you guys have talked about in the past, where do we stand on all that? The one that was like, you know, 350 at one point. What's the status of the hardware backlog?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah, I think you tried to take us up last quarter from 330 to 350, but, you know, I think, Steve, it's come down. I think that's a, that's a fair statement. You know, we sort of said we might end the year in the 200 range-ish. We thought, and that's what I said in the second quarter, we think that's maybe more between 100 and 150-ish. Depends on how the order rate. Some of that is just blanket orders that pushed into 2024, so it doesn't necessarily mean, you know, as dramatic as that number. But we'll still walk into 2024 with an excess backlog of over $100 million. So not as much as we anticipated, and that's principally in sensing.
A little bit of talk, really in China, related to China, the conversation I just had around the answers to Julian's questions. But I think where we stand today is still with a $100 million+ of backlog. That doesn't include EMC, which obviously has a very, very high backlog. So I think, you know, we still have an insurance policy going into going into 2024.
Steve Tusa (Managing Director)
What happened at Invitech? Can you just maybe discuss a little more of the drivers of that business for the quarter?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah, you know, we - that business is really mostly around, you know, high centered on design, engineering, and manufacturing for the diagnostic and bioprocessing market. Certainly, you've heard over the last couple of days how that's taken a step down to some extent. We thought we - Well, we thought our guide, you know, I would own this one. We thought the second half guide was sort of bottom for us, and I think as it turned out, it was not bottom and a little bit more, you know, more. We think now we've taken that down to where we think that is. But certainly, we were, you know, we're certainly a little bit overzealous. It's not our core healthcare market. As you know, the core healthcare market really centered around hospitals.
But I think where it stands today, the engineering resources, we've certainly seen some customers sort of push projects into 2024, that's what the guide reflects.
Steve Tusa (Managing Director)
One last one for you. Does this feel recessionary to you, and are you guys, do you have a, you know, playbook for costs, if so?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, Steve, and thanks for the question, because I think at the end of the day, it really, I don't know yet if this is recessionary in full. I think four quarters of PMI being where it's been and a number of other indexes around, you know, industrial production and some of those things having been slow. I think we've seen pockets of that, and that's been reflected in some of the order rates that we've described over the last couple of quarters. But I think if we come back to the original guide of the year, we're on that number. We prepared for slowing in some places. That's why margin expansion was so good in the second and the third quarter, following on a, you know, a little bit less revenue.
As, as we said in the prepared remarks, we've upped our productivity view of a little bit, and again, in a, maybe a little bit of abundance of caution, but to be prepared for any environment. And, and we still think next year can be good. I think it, you know, as we, as we said, a number of the things that have played out in the strategy. Software was really good in the quarter, it continues to be strong. Our services businesses continue to be good. You saw Fluke in, in better shape, I think, than maybe if we were in a recession, and their point of sale is pretty good. So, so I, I wouldn't call it necessarily yet, but I think there's pockets of things, and, and we'll be prepared for it.
Steve Tusa (Managing Director)
Great. Thanks a lot.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Thank you, Steve.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Jeffrey Sprague (Managing Partner)
Hey, Jeff. Thank you. Hey. Hello, everyone. Hey, can we just kind of maybe come back to tech first? So, orders are down in the quarter, but you're expecting them to inflect positively in Q4. Can you just maybe elaborate on what's driving that, or is that just, you know, the comps now moving the other way? Like, what kind of visibility do you have on improving orders at tech?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah, it's a couple- it's a couple things. I think number one is, you know, we've, we've seen slowing in tech orders, you know, for a few quarters now. And so some of it is comp. You're right, we started to see some slowing. The two and three-year stacks are still really strong. So, you know, we're working off a level of order, you know, just raw order dollar numbers that are still very, very good, but frankly, unprecedented in the history of the company over the last few years. So in that sense, it really- there is much of a comp issue. We started to slow in the fourth quarter of last year. So yeah, that's it. And then there's a, a little bit of, we think, you know, China maybe gets a slight- slightly better.
It was pretty dramatic in the quarter, but we, you know, even in. You know, we've seen some early signs that maybe that gets a little bit better. I wouldn't call it good. I'd just call it a little bit better. So, we had some order push from Q3 to Q4. We think we'll see those things as well. So, the majority of it is, you know, is comp. We're not, we're not counting on a big step-up improvement. And, but, but we, we are seeing some things that might suggest things might be a little bit better, and that's reflected in, in how we're talking about it.
Jeffrey Sprague (Managing Partner)
On this inventory realignment and ASP, so you misjudged it a bit in Q3. Like, what is your kind of visibility that, you know, you totally understand what's in the channel, and we don't have some additional hangover into Q4, or maybe there's some hangover baked into your Q4 numbers still? Hey, Jeff, this is Chuck. No, we don't have anything baked into Q4. We're done shipping to the distributors, and if there's some... We're confident that we've worked through everything. It was bigger than we had visibility to, which, as Jim mentioned a few minutes ago, is why we wanted to make this—one of the reasons we wanted to make this change.
James Lico (President and CEO)
We wish we'd been able to size it properly out of the gate, but as I said, that's why we make the change, but nothing in Q4. And so what we are gonna see is ASP to be in mid-single digit in Q4.
Jeffrey Sprague (Managing Partner)
Maybe just a quick one. This cyber issue, is this totally wrestled to the ground, or we- do we have some kind of open-ended issue we're dealing with there?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah, you know, we experienced a network infrastructure disruption, you know, from what we're calling a cyber incident in the quarter. We talked about some costs to mitigate that, roughly $0.01, around $5 million. That's in the guide. That's what we called out. We did have some downtime in some North American facilities. Those are back up and running. We definitely think we can mitigate that. We've mitigated the issues relative and, you know, first contained the issues, we mitigated them. We've completed the investigation. We're implementing the final remediation measures. So, you know, we don't believe this incident has a material impact on the quarter. So that's where we stand, right? You know, that's where we stand. Great. Thank you.
Thank you.
Jeffrey Sprague (Managing Partner)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Dean Dray from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray (Managing Director)
Thank you. Hi, everyone.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Hey, Dean.
Deane Dray (Managing Director)
Hey, can we start with the EA acquisition? One of the things that struck me in the release is you talked about how you want to leverage the Tektronix franchise, and maybe just kind of elaborate on that. Is it distribution? You're looking at the products, there's a lot of kind of similarities in terms of benchtop, but it doesn't seem to me there's a lot of product application overlap, and maybe I'm wrong there. So how does the leveraging the Tek franchise play out here?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah, there's not a lot of product overlap, Dean. You're right, but there is a bunch of application overlap. We've talked about the power market at Tektronix, you know, for a number of years and how that's really been driving growth. Even in the quarters we were just describing, we've continued to see strength. And that's really been on the backs of our mainstream oscilloscopes and probes, and our Keithley source measuring units. And almost in every one of those applications is also a, you know, an EA-type product, if you will. So we'll 10x their go-to-market. They were mostly direct in Germany and parts of Europe, mostly with distributions in countries around the world. We'll 10x that with our own go-to-market from a capability, both direct and channel capability. We think that's a tremendous leverage point.
It is at the call point we're at, and we see a lot of those applications relative to seeing EA right there in many cases, or in many cases, seeing others and understanding that we can be a partner to EA in that regard, relative to the go-to-market. So we feel good about the synergies. It's obviously a very good business. You know, it's had very strong growth. It's got software-like growth and software-like margins, and we think we can, you know, really help accelerate the continued market expansion of the product lines.
Deane Dray (Managing Director)
Great. That's good to hear. And then just as a follow-up in some of the themes about what are you seeing that might be recessionary or not, two areas I'd be interested in hearing: the typical Fluke sell-in versus sell-through, how that is the cadence there, and then broadly, the cadence for the quarter. You know, if you broke out revenue growth or orders, how did it play out in the quarter by month? And, you know, did you exit in a more deteriorating fashion or not?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah, I mean, I think when we look at Fluke POS as an example, and North America is probably the best place to think about the U.S. economy, it played out pretty consistently. Although order-point of sale came in pretty consistently. We got to look at 2-year stacks because, you know, as we fulfill backlog over the last 12-18 months, it does, in some respects, distort it a little bit. But by and large, pretty consistent. I think when we looked at China, it was probably a little slower as we went through. But I think we have a good understanding of where that was and that kind of thing. And that's broadly China, not just, not just Fluke. So I would say that's how I anticipated.
Tech, on the other hand, was, you know, their order growth was actually better in September than it was through the early part of the early part of the quarter. I would say, though, we did see a little bit later in the month, and so there was maybe a little bit of a dynamic in a few places. But I think, you know, that's really what the biggest change in really how we think about the second half, though, is really coming back to less, you know, maybe really specific OEM customers within sensing in those markets I described and China. I think those are the two big changes that we really saw.
Deane Dray (Managing Director)
Great. Thank you.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin (Managing Director)
Hi, guys. Good morning.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Good morning.
Andrew Obin (Managing Director)
Hey, hey, how are you? Yeah, just, I guess the question on PT and the decision to sort of buy EA. You know, I think for years, and I, you know, we love tech, but, you know, it was like one of the acquisitions back at Danaher. This is the one that didn't go well. And, you know, there were questions, and all of a sudden, there's a lot of attention being paid to it, right? You know, press reported NATI, you know, clearly you're making a bet here with EA. Can you just talk about the evolution of the company's thinking about sort of tech and how you're thinking about the business overall, where this is all of a sudden a key area for capital deployment?
What it is you're seeing, 2, 3 years down the road that gets you excited?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah. Thanks, Andrew. I would say, number one, when you look at the returns of tech from back, you know, a while ago, those returns are good now. Yeah, we had a little bit of challenge in the early days, that's exactly right, but that's a little bit of old tape. The returns now are good, and I think we feel good about the business, and I think the performance in the business over the last several years and the profitability that's come with that has been very good because of the strategy of getting out of some businesses that were much more volatile, the video business being one of them, but a few others. Getting into more services, which give us the higher attach rate and less volatility, and you've seen that play out over the last couple of years.
I think, you know, as a large business within the company, we've been very specific, and we think we've been very deliberate in terms of our narrative, that the power market was a very good market for us. It had good trajectories relative to secular drivers around electrification. That's not just EVs. Sometimes people think of that as mobility. That's much more around storage. It's much more around the use of renewable energy and the challenges that that brings to the grid, the challenge it brings to data centers, the challenge it brings on storage. And we've had exceptional success in those markets over the last few years. We talk about that relative to our own success as the mainstream oscilloscope line in that platform and the success that that's had.
So a natural extension of that is what we see at EA, and that's an opportunity for us to have a high-value bolt-on. It accretes immediately to Tektronix's growth rate and profitability. And I think investors hopefully will—I think, and we've had good. It's interesting, I've had industry people that I've known for decades tell me over the last 48 hours what a great deal that is. We obviously got to continue to talk to folks about it to help them understand the company. But I think when you see it for what it is financially and what it is strategically, and the fact that we can get the kind of returns that we've described, I think it's a very good addition and a very good addition to tech, and we're excited about it.
And we're excited about not only what it happens in 2024, but quite frankly, what it really brings to the business. And, and we- you know, we've talked a little bit about this, but, you know, as we highlighted our 2028 targets for EPS and free cash flow, EA gets us about 30-35- about 40% actually, of the M&A EPS target. So when you look at that at, at a multiple that we- we're trading at today. So we feel really good about the deal, and we feel good about the opportunity to, to really, to bring that team on. It's an outstanding team, and we think it'll be a great addition to Tektronix and to Fortive.
Andrew Obin (Managing Director)
Got you. And just to follow up on just software, but specific, I guess, facility and asset life cycle, right? We sort of slowed down to high single-digit growth. And I apologize if I missed it, but what were the key headwinds that sort of took it down from double digits to high single digits? And how much visibility do we have on this business reaccelerating into year end and into 2024? Thank you.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah, I think FAL is in great shape. We, you know, it's a great story relative to iOS margin expansion that we had. We obviously we've had a great year to date in iOS margin expansion, and FAL is a great part of that story. You know, we had a little, I would call it a little bit of slowing at Gordian, but that is really not slowing. It's just really we had an exceptional first half, and, and so it's a little bit of moderation more than anything, but I wouldn't read anything into it. That business has never been as good a shape as it is right now. So I think at the end of the day, we Service Channel is on a great trajectory. We talked about a number of the good things are going on in Accruent.
I wouldn't read anything into FAL other than we feel really good about it. It's, it's... You know, we're in a good place. It's gonna be a good setup for 2024. The business is really humming along.
Andrew Obin (Managing Director)
10%+ is still a good placeholder for this business long-term?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah, I think we've said high, you know, sort of high single to low double, and, you know, it might move around a little. You know, you do have a little bit of non-recurring service business in that, a little bit that plays out every once in a while. You get a little bit on the comps, but yeah, I mean, it's gonna, it's gonna be that way in the, you know, the 9, 10, 11 kinda %, probably you can dial that in for strong success in the years to come.
Andrew Obin (Managing Director)
Thanks so much.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Davis from Melius Research. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, good morning, I should say, everybody, Jim, Chuck, and Elena.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Good morning.
Scott Davis (Chairman and CEO)
Can you guys hear? Oh, okay, good.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah.
Scott Davis (Chairman and CEO)
I got disconnected earlier—or yeah, I got disconnected a little earlier. So if someone asked this question, I apologize. But can you clarify on this channel adjustment, you know, going direct, is there a margin payback? I would imagine you capture some of that margin that distributors were getting, but are we gonna see that in the numbers, or did you have to add costs in, you know, proportionally to that, to that change?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Scott, it is Chuck. Yeah, there's, there's a margin component to that. It's about 7% on the, on the revenue that was going through the North American distributor. And you will start to see that show up in price in Q4.
Scott Davis (Chairman and CEO)
Okay, good. And when you guys think about kind of your, your pricing strategy, and I imagine it's dynamic by, by SKU, but is, is this new world we live in, one where you can go out every January one, you think, with some sort of, you know, placeholder price increase and, and capture it in the marketplace, or is that not, not how to think about it?
James Lico (President and CEO)
No, I think, you know, whether it's... You know, we probably have several dates. If I were to think about the hardware businesses, which have obviously had unprecedented price over the last few years, but we will continue to have good price. We always think about it as value capture more so than price. We think about our innovation capability, and if we can bring on higher innovation, ultimately, we'll be rewarded for that from a gross margin perspective. You know, I think our gross margin trajectory over the last few years is really not only a good testament to FBS, but it's also a good testament to innovation and our ability to launch products that have tremendous value. So I think the pricing environment is gonna be better going to, you know, in 2024 than normal.
But I would say I wouldn't say it's better than 2023, I would just say it's better than normal. And we would anticipate continuing to look for those pricing opportunities. You'll see that a little bit on the software side and built into net dollar retention. And then, you know, our pricing metric that we often talk about is really more related to the hardware businesses. But as Chuck mentioned, we'll get a little bit more price in healthcare. We've been getting more price in healthcare over the last few quarters. We think that will continue as well into 2024. So a number of things that'll be that we feel optimistic about. We're not in a guide scenario just yet for 2024, but we are optimistic we can continue to get price.
Scott Davis (Chairman and CEO)
Super helpful. Best of luck, for the rest of your guys.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah. Thanks, Scott.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
Hi, thanks, guys.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Good morning.
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
Good morning. So just look on this Q4, just mathematics here. Look, obviously, $0.01 on corporate with the Fortive.
Seems like maybe a penny or two on FX. Just confirm that move in FX about a penny or two on 4Q. But I'm just curious on Texas Instruments. You know, you know, there's obviously you know pretty weak forward guidance from them. And I think we're trying to all figure out you know whether this is deterioration in short cycle demand or whether you know consumers of chips like yourself are just destocking. You know you've been obviously holding buffer inventory and destocking. So any perspective you have on that, Jim, would be helpful.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Hey, Nigel, why don't I take the first one? I think there is a little bit, I wouldn't say $0.02 impact on FX in the fourth quarter. I think, you know, it's probably a little less than $0.01, but there is some effects. You know, just to close that one off, and you did note there is $0.01 in corporate cost for the remediation or efforts on the cyber.
Hey, Nigel, a little bit. I think I caught your question on TI and a little bit about inventory in the channel and things like that. I didn't tear apart their everything they said, but I did read a little bit about it. I would just say from a Tektronix perspective, broadly around maybe components and kind of the market, if you will, I think the biggest place we saw some level of inventory correction was in China. We do track inventory levels. Embedded in our guide is some lowering of inventory in China over the next couple of quarters. We are. I wouldn't say we're at elevated inventory levels. As demand comes down a little bit, lead times come down. We are managing with individual channel partners relative to inventory.
But I think in general, we feel like we're in a pretty good place with the guide of where that all sets up. Obviously, the biggest decision in that is really where the demand goes. And but we think we've dialed in the kind of demand. The order projections that I was describing earlier in the call really embedded a number of those things into those complex regional complexities into how we're talking about Tektronix. So if that's the answer, let me know, but if I missed it, let me know.
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
No, no, I just, I'm just curious if you were, like, taking down chip inventories, in particular. But,
James Lico (President and CEO)
Oh, I was taking down our inventories.
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
Yeah.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah.
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
Okay.
James Lico (President and CEO)
You know, the one thing about us, and you know this because our working capital performance has been so good, we really didn't build a lot of inventory into the company. We certainly will be taking, you know, actions on inventory, given we've you know, our revenue guide for the fourth quarter is a little different than it was, so we're certainly working on that. But in terms of, you know, having big inventories on our own, we we haven't necessarily been building big inventories. You know, that's the benefit of lean manufacturing, quite frankly. So sorry, I missed that. It's a really good question.
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
No, that's right. Yeah. I mean, and my follow-up question, I think this is a quick one. Yeah, I thought slide 14 was a good slide showing the variability in revenue growth, but, you know, ultimately, around a mid-single-digit type of growth rate, and 2024 sort of recapping to that. So I'm just curious, you know, does the same thing, you know, as we frame 2024, does the same apply to incremental margins? And the spirit of the question is, we're coming off a really big year for incremental, so I think we're north of 60%. You know, does that mean that 2024 might be sort of below natural levels, or are you confident you can build on 23 margins in a 40%-50% range, perhaps?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Nigel, a couple of things to think about. As 2023 margins are very good, and normally, we'd think about 40% incrementals, and I think it's been 60%. That has to do more with the productivity things that we did early in the year, and then you saw us do some more. So, no, we would always expect 40% incrementals, you know, moving forward, and then it'll be a little bit more elevated because of the actions that we're taking right now. So we will build on what we've done here, and we would expect them to be, you know, elevated from what they would be because of those actions that we're taking here in the second half.
Nigel, relative to core growth, I think hopefully that slide is helpful because what we were trying to articulate is, you know, we, what we really said is mid-single-digit through the cycle. So after a couple of years of 10% like growth, we would anticipate having a little bit of normalization. We've been talking about this for Q3. We have a little bit of normalization. We've talked about that consistently in the second half of the year. We're seeing, you know, we're seeing that, mostly very, very consistent with what we talked about. I think a little bit of difference in sensing, a little bit of difference in China relative to what we talked about.
But again, I think, you know, we're seeing that normalization here in the second half of the year, and, you know, I think that that's very consistent with how we would look at a mid-single-digit grower through the cycle. And as Chuck just mentioned, the fact that we've been prepared for things means we've been able to drive, you know, really good margin expansion, even with the, you know, even with some slowing in the second half of the year because of our preparation and because of how we run the business.
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
That's great. Thank you.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Andy Kaplowitz (Stock Analyst)
Good morning, everyone.
Charles E. McLaughlin (SVP and CFO)
Hey, Andy.
Andy Kaplowitz (Stock Analyst)
So I think one of the keys for ASP as you go into Q4 2023 and 2024 is consumables coming back and being relatively strong. I think you've talked about underlying elective procedures improving. I would surmise that's the case in the U.S., and I, I guess in China at this point. But what is your visibility into the consumables ramp up, and if anything, would stop ASP from recording the stronger, consumables demand?
Charles E. McLaughlin (SVP and CFO)
Well, so Andy, a couple of things, you know, just from elective procedures, generally in Q2, we thought we were at 95% around the world. A little bit slowed in China, because of the anti-corruption stuff, probably to 90%, but definitely improving, over around the world. We do have this inventory adjustment transition in North America. But when you look through that, the actual consumables and growth is already there. It's there in Q2 and Q3, when you understand how the customers are using our products, and that's where when Jim talks about the two-year stack, you know, we're up eight-9% from Q2, Q3, Q4, rather consistently, when you just take that one thing out. So we think we're already seeing that, and what's actually getting used at the hospitals.
Let me stop there and see if that made sense.
Andy Kaplowitz (Stock Analyst)
Yeah, no, that totally makes sense, Chuck. Thanks. And then maybe just shifting gears, Jim, could you talk a little bit more how you're thinking about M&A now? You know, after the announcement of EA, and you had the three small bolt-ons. How are you balancing thinking about the higher rates environment in terms of your own M&A strategy? And should we expect a higher tempo of M&A from Fortive over the short to medium term?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Well, I think, you know, Andy, it's really—'cause, you know, when we had our Investor Day in May, what we tried to outline was the opportunities in front of us. And what I think what I tried to really try to communicate then and consistently is really around the fact that we were active. That we... You know, I think I said the second quarter call, I thought we'd get some things done in the second half. But maybe I had—you know, I probably had four of the five cards already drawn at that point. But, you know, I think we've been busy, we've been active, we've been looking for unique situations. I think everybody was looking for a step down and, you know, massive price differences.
We've seen a number of peer companies pay, you know, robust prices. I think what we've been able to do is find those unique situations. Those three bolt-ons were, you know, unique situations, places like Azima, where we've had a long-term relationship with them and a little bit of a partnership. Solmetric, which is a, you know, a solar tool company. These are unique things that we're able to do that are really product extensions with high ROICs. And as I was mentioning earlier in the call, EA is really, you know, very similar. It's a business we've known for a while. We've known it in the market.
They actually are well known amongst all test and measurement players for their technology and their ability to sort of play in the really good, high growth applications. And so I think we'll continue to look for those opportunities that are there, and we think they are. We'll continue to do that, but we'll also do that within the context of looking for strong returns, and that's what you'll see. And I think what makes us I think what, you know, we've been trying to talk about is that we would demonstrate these things. They're hard to plan out, so sometimes they come in bunches like they did in this quarter.
But we will remain active, but we'll be looking for those opportunities that are, I think, very similar to what we've seen over this quarter, which is unique situations where we really have an opportunity to get high returns.
Andy Kaplowitz (Stock Analyst)
That's great, Jim. And, Chuck, just to sort of follow up on my first question, you don't need a consumables ramp up to make your Q4 margin, right? You already have it. It's just the other thing getting better.
Charles E. McLaughlin (SVP and CFO)
Yes, that's exactly right.
Andy Kaplowitz (Stock Analyst)
Got it. Thanks, guys.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Thanks, Andy.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Giordano from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Joe Giordano (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions here.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Hey, Joe.
Joe Giordano (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
I want to start on AHS. Like, you know, if I look back, right, like going back to 2018, the average growth is something like, you know, high 2% range, and this year is gonna be kind of maybe a little bit below that. So I, I know there's a lot of different things, and you're certainly not the only people to get kind of surprised by what's going on in healthcare now. I mean, that's pretty much everybody. But, like, what makes us really confident modeling forward, that the entitlement is, like, mid single digits plus, when that's really only happened one time since 2018, despite portfolio changes there?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Well, I think it embedded in what the comment Chuck just had about consumables is number one. You know, we've obviously a little bit of noise, but, you know, we had COVID for several years, and that certainly created a lot of noise, given the fact that it was a regional situation. We were kind of behind it in the U.S. for a while, and then China and all that. I won't reiterate all that. You know it. I think where we stand today and what Chuck just described is, as you sort of look through kind of these one-time channels situation, which we really believe was the right thing to do strategically, we're seeing that growth now.
I think the 200 basis points of margin expansion in the third quarter in the segment really speaks to the fact that ASP's margins are starting to get up better, because the rest of the margins in the segment are very strong. So, we feel good about the launch point relative to what, how we've just described it. And, you know, 2024, as I said earlier in the year, 2023, the healthcare market would be a little bit better. It wouldn't be great, but it would be better, and 2024 would be better than 2023, and 2025 would be better than 2024. So we continue to think that we continue to see that. So that's what gives us the confidence.
And again, I understand, given, you know, the fact that this, inventory situation in the third quarter was a little bit more than we anticipated, but... So obviously, that puts some skepticism in, in, the nature of the question. But I think as we stand here today, you know, with what we've got going, we, you know, we saw good equipment growth. High growth markets, growth in the quarter was 10%. So, you know, I think we've got other parts of the world in a- in better shape, and now we've got to-- we've needed to get North America in a better shape.
That's really been the drag on the business in the last few years, and we feel that we needed to do the channel change in order to make that happen, and that's, you know, that's now behind us, and we walk into the fourth quarter and into 2024 with a number of those things behind us.
Joe Giordano (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Fair enough. And then just last for me on, on the hardware backlog that you talked about. I think you said like, what it was 350 or so last quarter, probably ending around 150-ish.... give or take at the end of the year. So, you know, I guess rough numbers, we're talking like orders under revenue by, like, $100 million a quarter right now, and then we exit the year. That's a pretty small percentage of, like, the total business there. So, like, we need to see when does dollars have to- like, dollars of orders rather than percentage of orders, have to start inflecting before, like, the revenue catches to the- catches down to the orders?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah. Well, yeah, a couple of things. Number one is just remember, we've created $300 million over three—that 330 is an excess backlog number, not a backlog number. So in-
Joe Giordano (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Got it
James Lico (President and CEO)
... in a couple of years, we created 330 just to and, you know, we said we'd end the we naturally deplete under normal circumstances, you know, we would deplete backlog in the second half of the year. That's pretty natural. We had said that was likely to get us from $330 to $200. We now think that's about $125-ish, call it $100-$150, maybe, 'cause I don't think we can be super precise here. I- and so it's call that at about, you know, somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 to 100 difference. We think some of that already got pushed into 2024, and some of it probably is inventory corrections, mostly in China.
And it's, it's really the sensing story that I talked about earlier in the call. So hopefully, I reconciled a little bit of that for you from a numbers perspective.
Joe Giordano (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
It does. Thank you.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Joe O'Dea from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Joe O'dea (Stock Analyst)
Hi, thanks for taking my questions.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Hey, Joe.
Joe O'dea (Stock Analyst)
I wanted to start on the just kind of inventory rationalization, and could you explain a little bit more kind of the differences between Fluke versus tech and sensing? And so, you know, I think you're seeing it in Fluke as well, but it seems like you're seeing it in ways which it isn't surprising. And so, you know, whether that's a function of there were longer lead times in tech and sensing that led to more forward buying, whether that's more tied to the end market they're serving, just trying to understand why they might be marching down a little bit of different paths in terms of managing through some of the destock effect.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah, Joe, are you talking about inventory or backlog?
Joe O'dea (Stock Analyst)
I'm talking about inventory.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Okay. Well, I don't think we had a big inventory correction here. If I might have miscommunicated that, but I think what we're really saying, the backlog answer I just had is really the story relative to our order rate. And I would say most of that in sensing is not really inventory as much as it is it could be inventory, but it's really it really is much more OEMs really pushing out. I think it's much more of a demand issue than an excess in specific verticals. The majority of that backlog reduction, which you could think of that as the order, kind of, order is changing, is really in three specific verticals, as we talked about.
One being in sort of in automation, industrial automation, mostly with European OEMs, semiconductor, really two equipment companies that we supply, HVAC, kind of on a global basis in China, and a little bit of medical with some specific customers. So that's really the big change in our backlog, our excess backlog number that I was just suggesting to Joe, and that's really mostly in sensing. A little bit of tech, a little bit of Fluke, but not, but really a big story. And relative to inventory in channels, what I was trying to suggest is, yeah, a little bit at tech relative to China, but in North America and Europe, we still have pretty good POS, and I would anticipate that if demand, you know, demand's really normalizing a little bit more.
So if we continue to see that, we'll see some normal changes in inventory as lead times come down, but nothing. We don't anticipate, at this point, anything dramatic.
Joe O'dea (Stock Analyst)
That's helpful. And then wanted to ask on EA and just how to think about the revenue growth potential and incrementals there over the next kind of five years, what you're thinking about. To get to that kind of ROIC target, I mean, it seems like we're looking at maybe solid double-digit revenue growth and some really strong incrementals, and you know, the 10x go-to-market is pretty compelling. But maybe any details there in terms of kind of what you see for that revenue growth over the next number of years?
James Lico (President and CEO)
Yeah, Joe, we think it's gonna be, you know, low double-digit, you know, for over the next 5 years. Really strong incrementals here, like, we've got some other examples of that, about 60% flow-through. That gets us, I think, we talked about or Jim mentioned earlier, you know, with 20% of our next 5-year free cash flow, we're gonna get $0.40, you know, of EPS, out in 2028. That's the math that we've given out.
I would just add, you know, that's obviously a lower growth rate than they've anticipated. We think there's upside opportunity as well, given the synergy in the go-to-market expansion. So we like the business, and we'll look forward to continuing to talk about it in the near term.
Joe O'dea (Stock Analyst)
Thank you.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Jim Lico for closing remarks.
James Lico (President and CEO)
Well, thanks, Krista. Thanks, everyone, for taking the call. We, we appreciate the time and energy and enthusiasm of the questions. We, we obviously have some- we'll have some follow-up with many of you, and we'll look forward to that. I think what you saw in the quarter, obviously a few changes on the revenue line, but I think what we've tried to say from day one is that we'd see some normalization in the second half. We saw that maybe a little bit more in the third than we anticipated. But what we also said is that we've continued to drive margins and continued to set the business up for long-term sustainability and success. And I think the margin expansion you saw, the free cash flow, the number of deals that we did, that's very consistent with the strategy we've outlined.
We think we continue to set up for 2024, well. We'll obviously get to a guide here in the next few months. We look forward to finishing the year out here strongly. We'll see you on the road, and we'll look forward to taking your follow-up. Thanks, everyone. Have a great day.
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.
