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GM

General Motors Co (GM)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered resilient topline with revenue of $44.0B (+2.3% YoY) and EBIT-adjusted of $3.5B, while margins compressed on warranty, FX and mix headwinds; EPS-diluted-adjusted was $2.78, up 6% YoY .
  • Against Wall Street, GM beat EPS ($2.78 vs $2.67*) and revenue ($44.0B vs $43.4B*); EBITDA was below consensus ($5.17B vs $6.07B*). Bold beats on EPS and revenue; EBITDA miss reduces quality of beat. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Management lowered FY 2025 guidance to EBIT-adjusted $10–$12.5B (prior $13.7–$15.7B), EPS-diluted-adjusted $8.25–$10.00 (prior $11.00–$12.00), and adjusted automotive FCF $7.5–$10.0B (prior $11.0–$13.0B), citing a $4–$5B tariff impact with ~30% offsets targeted .
  • Stock-relevant catalyst: tariff-driven guidance reset, tempered by pricing strength (+0.5% to +1% in North America vs prior -1% to -1.5%), share gains (U.S. market share 17.2%) and disciplined incentives, positioning GM for defensible margins despite policy shocks .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Market share and demand: U.S. market share rose to 17.2% in Q1 (vs 15.4% LY); NA wholesales +2%, broad-based strength in redesigned ICE SUVs and strong EV momentum (Chevrolet fastest-growing EV brand; Cadillac EVs ≈20% of U.S. sales) .
  • Pricing and discipline: Pricing +~$900M YoY; incentives ~300 bps below industry; ICE dealer inventory healthy at 49 days; EV incentives below industry average (78 days EV inventory) .
  • China stabilization: Positive equity income of ~$45M vs $(106)M LY; three consecutive quarters of sequential share growth, NEV sales +53% YoY .
  • Quote: “We are updating our full year EBIT adjusted guidance to a range of $10 billion to $12.5 billion, including a current tariff exposure of $4–$5 billion.” — Mary Barra .

What Went Wrong

  • Margin compression: EBIT-adjusted margin fell to 7.9% (from 9.0% LY); GMNA margin 8.8% (from 10.6% LY) on depreciation, labor and warranty pressures; FX headwind ≈$300M (Mexican peso) .
  • Warranty and mix headwinds: Fixed costs +$400M YoY; voluntary measures on 6.2L L87 engine to drive ~$500M incremental Q2 warranty expense; full-size pickup wholesales lower on scheduled downtime and supplier fire (~7K units impact) .
  • Guidance reset from tariffs: FY 2025 guide cut (EBIT, EPS, FCF) after new U.S. tariff policy; mitigation only ~30% in-year from pricing/cost/supply chain actions .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$43.01 $47.70 $44.02
Net Income Attrib. to Stockholders ($USD Billions)$2.98 $(2.96) $2.78
EBIT-adjusted ($USD Billions)$3.87 $2.51 $3.49
Net Income Margin (%)6.9% (6.2%) 6.3%
EBIT-adjusted Margin (%)9.0% 5.3% 7.9%
Diluted EPS ($)$2.56 $(1.64) $3.35
EPS-diluted-adjusted ($)$2.62 $1.92 $2.78

Segment performance (Q1 YoY):

Segment/KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025
GMNA EBIT-adjusted ($B)$3.84 $3.29
GMNA EBIT-adjusted Margin (%)10.6% 8.8%
GMI EBIT-adjusted ($B)$(0.01) $0.03
China Equity Income ($B)$(0.106) $0.045
GM Financial EBT-adjusted ($B)$0.737 $0.685

KPIs and market metrics:

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025
Wholesale Units (000s) – GMNA792 827
Wholesale Units (000s) – GMI104 85
Wholesale Units (000s) – Total895 912
U.S. Market Share (%)15.4% 17.2%
Fleet Sales (000s)209 239
Fleet Sales (% of Total)15.5% 16.5%
NA Capacity Two-shift Utilization (%)109.7% 109.5%
ICE U.S. Dealer Inventory (days)N/A49
U.S. EV Share (%)N/A10% in Q1; 12% in March

Vs. Wall Street consensus (Q1 2025):

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Billions)$43.41*$44.02 +$0.61B*
EPS-diluted-adjusted ($)$2.67*$2.78 +$0.11*
EBITDA ($USD Billions)$6.07*$5.17*Miss*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
EBIT-adjustedFY 2025$13.7–$15.7B $10.0–$12.5B Lowered
EPS-diluted-adjustedFY 2025$11.00–$12.00 $8.25–$10.00 Lowered
Adjusted Automotive FCFFY 2025$11.0–$13.0B $7.5–$10.0B Lowered
North America Pricing AssumptionFY 2025Down 1% to 1.5% (prior) Up 0.5% to 1% Raised
GM Financial EBT-adjustedFY 2025$2.5–$3.0B (unchanged) $2.5–$3.0B Maintained
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025$10–$11B $10–$11B Maintained
Tariff Exposure (gross)FY 2025Not contemplated ~$4–$5B; ~30% self-help offsets New headwind

Dividend actions:

  • Dividend raised to $0.15/share (from $0.12) on April 29, 2025 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024 and Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Tariffs/MacroWatching potential tariff scenarios; resilient pricing and share; China restructuring charges in Q4 $4–$5B tariff impact; offsets via pricing, cost and footprint; updated guidance provided post-presidential actions New macro headwind; agile mitigation
Pricing DisciplinePricing +$900M YoY; incentives < industry; targeted inventory Pricing raised vs prior guide; incentives well below industry; inventory healthy Sustained strength
EV Strategy & ProfitabilityVariable profit positive targeted in Q4; training and expansion of EV portfolio EV volume +~90% YoY; ~50% of entries variable profit positive; production aligned to demand Disciplined scaling
Supply Chain & ManufacturingHurricane disruptions; capital efficiency, conversions Supplier fire mitigated (~7K units impact); added Fort Wayne capacity (+50K annualized); increase U.S. content Execution agility
AI/TechnologyBattery JV scale; SDV roadmap; potential collaborations NVIDIA collaboration; expanding Super Cruise; L3/L4 focus; new Head of AI Increasing emphasis
ChinaChallenging market; planned restructuring; large Q4 charges Positive equity income; NEV sales +53% YoY; ongoing restructuring Early stabilization

Management Commentary

  • “We are updating our full year EBIT adjusted guidance to a range of $10 billion to $12.5 billion, including a current tariff exposure of $4 billion to $5 billion.” — Mary Barra .
  • “Pricing was up around $900 million year-over-year… FX was a headwind of around $300 million… Fixed costs were up $400 million… we expect warranty to still be a slight year-over-year tailwind in 2025.” — Paul Jacobson .
  • “We have moderated EV production to ensure that we stay aligned with consumer demand… focusing EV investments on greater efficiency and cost reductions.” — Mary Barra .
  • “Beginning in early April, a 25% vehicle import tariff was imposed… One action will provide a tariff offset… The other will ensure that tariffs on parts don't stack.” — Paul Jacobson .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tariff mitigation and timing: Three-bucket approach (go-to-market pricing, cost reductions leveraging COVID playbook, footprint/supply chain moves); offsets will take time to implement .
  • Pricing posture: No assumption of incremental pricing beyond YTD; discipline maintained despite competitor discounting .
  • SAAR and volume: Planning around ~16M SAAR for the remainder of the year; flexibility to adjust footprint; excess U.S. capacity enables faster shifts .
  • EV investment focus: Emphasis on cost efficiency; compliance with evolving regulatory environment; capital within $10–$11B envelope .
  • Super Cruise scale: Fleet grew >100% YoY; targeting >700,000 Super Cruise-equipped vehicles by year-end .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 consensus vs actual: EPS $2.67* vs $2.78, Revenue $43.41B* vs $44.02B; EBITDA $6.07B* vs $5.17B*. Bold beats on EPS and revenue; EBITDA miss suggests lower operating leverage than modeled. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Near-term revisions: FY 2025 EPS, EBIT, FCF estimates likely to reset lower in line with tariff-driven guidance cut, partially offset by raised North America pricing assumption and continued cost discipline .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Guidance reset is policy-driven, not demand-driven: Expect estimate cuts centered on tariffs; watch subsequent relief and offset progress quarter by quarter .
  • Pricing discipline remains intact and is a key defense: Raised NA pricing outlook and below-industry incentives support margins despite macro headwinds .
  • Execution agility on supply chain/footprint: Rapid mitigation of supplier fire and production reallocation underscore operational resilience .
  • EV trajectory is paced to demand with improving economics: ~50% of entries variable profit positive; focus on cost-out and SDV/AI capabilities .
  • China is showing green shoots: Positive equity income, NEV growth; monitor sustainability of sequential share gains .
  • Capital allocation steady but prudent: Capex unchanged; buybacks paused pending operating clarity; dividend raised to $0.15/share .
  • Trading implications: Near-term—volatility around tariff developments and estimate resets; Medium-term—pricing strength, inventory discipline, and supply chain localization are potential rerating catalysts if offsets deliver as planned .

Additional Primary Source Notes

  • Non-GAAP adjustments in Q1 include $26M for HQ relocation and a $593M preferred shareholder return related to Cruise redemption, impacting EPS-diluted-adjusted reconciliation .
  • Automotive operating cash flow was $2.4B; adjusted automotive FCF $0.81B in Q1 (YoY down on capex and working capital timing) .
  • GM Financial Q1 net income $499M; originations $14.5B; liquidity $37.8B .
  • Senior unsecured notes $2.0B priced May 5 to support refinancing and Ultium Cells loan facility .