Green Plains - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 delivered positive EPS ($0.17) and net income ($11.9M), supported by $36.0M gain on asset sale and recognition of 45Z tax credits; revenue fell 22.8% YoY to $508.5M and Adjusted EBITDA was $52.6M, roughly flat YoY.
• Balance sheet de-risking: sale of Obion repaid $130.7M junior mezzanine debt; converts extended via $200M exchange/subscription; total debt fell to $353.4M at 9/30/25.
• Carbon capture operational in Nebraska: York fully online; Central City and Wood River ramping; company expects $15–$25M 45Z monetization in Q4 2025 and $40–$50M of 45Z-related Adjusted EBITDA for FY 2025.
• Operational performance: 101% plant utilization across nine operating plants; consolidated ethanol crush margin improved slightly YoY to $59.6M.
• Street consensus via S&P Global was unavailable in our tooling; we could not assess beats/misses vs estimates (S&P Global data unavailable).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Carbon capture launch at York and commissioning of Central City/Wood River, enabling monetization of 45Z credits; CEO: “Our Advantage Nebraska strategy is operational… carbon is delivered to the pipeline and we’re generating credits”.
  • Balance sheet actions (asset sale and debt exchanges) eliminated near‑term mezzanine overhang and extended converts; CFO: “We now have no significant debt maturities for the next several years”.
  • Operational excellence delivered 101% utilization and strong crush margin; CEO: “Our plants… delivered outstanding performance, with strong utilization running at 101%”.

• What Went Wrong

  • Revenue declined 22.8% YoY to $508.5M due to lower volumes/prices and exiting a third‑party marketing agreement; ethanol gallons sold fell 10.5% YoY to 197.3M.
  • Net income down vs prior year largely on $35.7M non‑recurring interest expense from mezzanine note extinguishment; interest expense surged to $47.8M in Q3.
  • Ethanol production operating income dropped to $4.4M from $35.2M YoY; segment Adjusted EBITDA declined 48.9% YoY to $28.7M amid weaker margins.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning and welcome to the Green Plains third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Following the company's prepared remarks, instructions will be provided for Q&A. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. I will now turn the call over to your host, Phil Boggs, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Boggs, please go ahead.

Phil Boggs (CFO)

Good morning and welcome to the Green Plains third quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining me on today's call is Chris Osowski, President and Chief Executive Officer, and other members of our leadership team. There is a slide presentation available and you can find it on the investor page under the Events and Presentations link on our website. During this call we will be making forward-looking statements which are predictions, projections, or other statements about future events. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could materially differ because of factors discussed in today's press release, in the comments made during this conference call, and in the risk factors section of our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Chris Osowski.

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Thanks Bill and good morning everyone. This has been a milestone quarter for Green Plains, one defined by operational excellence, discipline, and execution. I want to first thank our employees for their hard work and dedication through what has been a very, very busy quarter. Also to our Board of Directors for their confidence in me and our leadership team, and finally to our shareholders for their continued support of Green Plains. I'm proud of what we have been able to accomplish and am confident that we can and will continue to deliver sustainable, profitable results for the first time in years. We entered the fourth quarter with no near term debt concerns. Our balance sheet is restructured, our carbon capture systems are up and operational in all three Nebraska locations, and our plants continue to perform at record levels.

We built a simpler, fundamentally restructured business allowing us to focus on value creation and strong consistent cash flows. In order to recap the major activities since our last call, we want to highlight the following. The first, we executed on the sale of the Obion, Tennessee facility and concluded our strategic review process. We used those funds to fully repay approximately $130 million of high cost debt. Next, we refinanced most of our 2027 convertible debt with a new $200 million facility due in 2030. We also executed on our first 45Z clean fuel production tax credit monetization agreement. Finally, we commissioned and started up the carbon capture facility at York, Nebraska with the Wood River and Central City, Nebraska locations currently in the process of ramping up capture rates as we speak.

Operationally, we're continuing to deliver record performance with our network of plants hitting over 101% capacity utilization, the highest level we've reported in over a decade. This has been driven by our Operational Excellence programs that have been working in the background to improve fermentation yields and reduce plant downtime. We are seeing the results of what a focused effort can do with record or near record yields for this group of plants in ethanol, corn oil and protein. Financially, this quarter's results, including $52.6 million in adjusted EBITDA and $11.9 million in net income, reflect the new foundation we've laid. This is just the start.

During the quarter we began realizing benefits from the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit and we recognized $25 million of production tax credit value net of discounts and costs during the quarter and we anticipate another $15 million-$25 million of benefit in the fourth quarter as we look to 2026. We anticipate these values to grow as we expand the program to all of our plants and see the impact from policy changes going into effect January 1. We're proud of the progress that we've made to deliver on what we said we would do, which is positioning us to provide solid, transparent results in the fourth quarter and beyond. With that, I'll hand it back over to Phil to review the detailed financial results and then I'll come back with a strategic update and commercial outlook.

Phil Boggs (CFO)

Thanks Chris. For the third quarter of 2025 we reported net income attributable to Green Plains of $11.9 million or $0.17 per share versus Q3 of 2024 of $48.2 million or $0.69 per diluted share. This quarter includes $35.7 million in non-recurring interest expense tied to the extinguishment of our high-cost junior mezzanine debt. The result also includes $2.7 million in one-time restructuring charges related to our cost reduction and efficiency improvement programs. Adjusted for restructuring charges, non-cash charges and inclusive of the production tax credit benefits, Q3 2025 adjusted EBITDA ended at $52.6 million compared to Q3 2024 $53.3 million. During the quarter we strengthened our balance sheet and liquidity through the sale of our Obion asset in Tennessee. We used the proceeds to fully retire the junior mezzanine debt and enhance our liquidity.

We also refinanced most of our 2027 convertible notes through a new $200 million convertible note due in 2030 and used $30 million from that transaction to buy back stock. We now have no significant debt maturities for the next several years. Revenue for the quarter was $508.5 million, down 22.8% year over year. Like last quarter, our Q3 revenue was lower because we exited ethanol marketing for Tarleton earlier this year and placed our Fairmont ethanol asset on cold maintenance in January of this year. These items naturally reduced the gallons we had to market. SG&A totaled $29.3 million, which is $2.6 million higher than the prior year. Q3 last year's results benefited from some one-time true-ups related to compensation-related adjustments and payroll tax incentive refunds, while this quarter's results included some one-time expenses related to the final earnouts at our FQT business.

We continue to expect SGA to improve on a go forward run rate and remain on track to exit the year at a corporate and trade SGA target at the low $40 million area with full company consolidated SGA run rate in the low $90 million range, significantly improved from the $133 million and $118 million we incurred in 2023 and 2024.

Q3 2025 depreciation and amortization finished at $25 million compared to $26.1 million in the prior year. Quarter interest expense rose to $47.8 million including one-time charges totaling $35.7 million tied to the extension and then the retirement of the mezzanine notes. With that behind us now, we anticipate our recurring interest costs will fall significantly in Q4 and into 2026. We had an income tax benefit of $25.6 million. Our 45Z clean fuel production tax credits are recorded here under ASC 740 as deferred tax assets and then adjusted with a valuation allowance to recognize the likelihood of monetization resulting in the benefit. As a result, we recorded year to date production tax credits in 3Q 2026 of $26.5 million net of discounts to match our view of operating performance. We've included the production tax credits in adjusted EBITDA at the end of the quarter.

Our federal net operating loss balance of $200.5 million will provide future tax efficiency. Our normalized tax rate going forward is expected to remain in the 24%-25% range on the balance sheet. Our consolidated liquidity at quarter end included $211.6 million in cash equivalents and restricted cash, $325 million in working capital revolver availability, which is designated primarily for financing commodity inventories and receivables. Within our business, we had $136.7 million in unrestricted liquidity available to corporate capital. Expenditures in Q3 were $4 million, including maintenance, safety, and regulatory investments. For the remainder of 2025, we expect capital expenditures to be approximately $5 million-$10 million, which excludes the carbon capture equipment for our Nebraska operations which are already fully financed. Our balance sheet reflects the increase in the carbon equipment liability as anticipated as a natural result of progress that is occurring on the project.

This now stands at $117.5 million, up from $82 million in the prior quarter. As the project reaches full completion, this will be reclassified to debt in future periods. With that, I'll turn the call back to Chris to provide some strategic updates and a commercial outlook.

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

The balance sheet transformation we executed on earlier this year has fundamentally changed how this company operates. The sale of the Obion plant allowed us to fully retire a high cost mezzanine debt and simplify our capital structure. In October we completed $200 million in privately negotiated exchange and subscription agreements to extend the maturity of our converts and further de-risk the business. We ended the third quarter with $353 million in total debt, down over $220 million from year end 2024. While our carbon capture liabilities will move to debt in the near future, we have no near term debt maturities on the horizon other than the small remaining balance of the 2027 converts, leaving us plenty of runway to focus on operational excellence initiatives and delivering value for our shareholders.

One of the significant operational excellence initiatives we recently implemented is an overhaul of our CapEx policy and requirements for project justification and returns. This new rigor is aligned with our desire to be a data driven organization that measures twice and cuts once. Going forward, we will apply these new processes as we prioritize our capital allocation strategy which will be focusing on number one, strengthening our plant assets and maintaining or improving throughput, reducing our plant's carbon intensity through projects such as low energy distillation or combined heat and power, debottlenecking plant assets or incrementally expanding capacity, delevering the balance sheet through targeted debt reductions, and also options for returning capital to shareholders over time. We're developing a clear capital allocation matrix that weighs returns across each of these options so we can deploy capital where it drives the most long term value.

This is just one of the significant operational excellence initiatives we executed on during Q3. We've also completely revamped our plant financial models taking into account all production scenarios and corresponding carbon intensity and P&L impacts. At the same time, we implemented a cross functional sales and operations planning process and updated forecasting process that has equal involvement from our commercial operations and finance teams. While in Q3 we delivered results marked by strong operational execution and one of our core expectations is continuous improvement. Previously we mentioned in Q3 our plants achieved above 100% capacity utilization and we feel it's time to raise the bar. As we complete our budget cycle, we will be reviewing the capacity of our fleet with an eye towards updating our baseline capacity numbers for 2026 with a focus on operational excellence.

We are happy to be in a position to have to make this change. From the commercial perspective, the overall margin structure improves significantly through the second half of the third quarter and early part of the fourth quarter, driven by tighter ethanol supplies, lower input costs, and stronger corn oil values. Ethanol prices rallied roughly $0.25-$0.30 per gallon in August and September off of the early summer lows, while corn prices stayed subdued despite earlier expectations of a tight balance sheet. Favorable weather ultimately supported larger yields in a more balanced corn outlook. Corn oil prices increased early in Q3 following the 2026 RVO ruling before moderating late in the quarter. By contrast, DDGS and high protein values remained under pressure through much of the quarter given ample supply and typical seasonality.

Looking ahead with fall maintenance and peak summer driving behind us, ethanol prices have returned to more historical levels. Margins in the fourth quarter still remain attractive and we are set up for a solid Q4 performance. We're about 75% hedged on crush in the fourth quarter and have put positions on for Q1 in 2026 following our disciplined hedging strategy that we've been executing on for several quarters now, demand drivers are in place with healthy export volumes and a growing acceptance of E15, although we do expect to see typical seasonal volatility as we move through the back half of Q4 into traditional weaker margin winter months. Before we move on to Q&A, I want to leave you with this perspective. Green Plains is no longer approaching an inflection point. We're right in the middle of it.

With all three of our Nebraska facilities, Central City, Wood River and York now capturing CO2, this isn't a future promise anymore. It's happening today. The equipment is running across all three locations, carbon is delivered to the pipeline and we're generating credits. Our Advantage Nebraska strategy is operational and our overall decarbonization strategy has expanded to our entire operating platform. In closing, a lot of the heavy lifting has been done. We are entering a new chapter built on operational excellence, discipline and execution. We've simplified our business, strengthened our liquidity, and are proven to deliver our ability to deliver. Our carbon strategy is now a reality. Physical CO2 is being captured and monetized, and the earnings power of Green Plains is being transformed. We're confident in the path ahead as we finish 2025 on a strong note and look forward to 2026 and beyond. Operator, we'll now take questions.

Operator (participant)

At this time, I would like to remind everyone that in order to ask a question, you may press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. We will pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Okay, so your first question comes from the line of Manav Gupta with UBS. Your line is open.

Manav Gupta (Senior Equity Analyst)

Morning, Chris and team. You came in at a very challenging time and you have seemed to turn this boat very quickly and very efficiently. I want to congratulate you on that. My question here is, sir, as you look forward for the next nine to 12 months, what are your key challenges that you still think you have to encounter to, you know, get GPRD back at a run rate where it was probably three or four years ago?

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Yes, and thank you for the question. We really feel good about the actions taken over the last six to nine months to manage costs in our network. You know, we're really focused on making sure that our plant assets are competitive. The results of the operational excellence initiatives are really coming to fruition. Whether it be looking at improved plant yields or reduced plant OpEx, we see these plants, you know, coming into a very competitive position. In terms of, you know, other obstacles going forward, we are going to focus on the things that are within our control and we need to deliver, you know, on the opportunities that carbon, the carbon program is going to provide us. We still have to run the plants, we still have to put gas in the pipe, and we still have to monetize the tax credits.

On top of being great at what we do day to day, which is buying corn, running plants efficiently, and marketing our products to our client base.

Manav Gupta (Senior Equity Analyst)

Perfect. My very quick follow up is as you move along this journey, it's becoming increasingly clear you are going from a state of cash burn to probably significant cash generation once all these plants start up and there is more policy clarity. Help us understand what could be the uses of some of those cash. As you said, you do not actually have any near term maturity, so help us understand what could be the possible uses of this cash as you generate it in 2026 and 2027.

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Yeah, sure. You know, first and foremost we are going to maintain the health of our operating assets. We are going to ensure that our plants can produce at a competitive position and we want to drive those plants into the top 25% quartile of the industry. Next, you know, we have numerous opportunities to further reduce our carbon intensity scores in plants. You know, whether it be moving toward low energy distillation technologies to further reduce natural gas or electrical consumption in plant or considerations for combined heat and power in plants, there are a lot of opportunities that are still available to us and then debottlenecking and adding capacity where it makes sense. These are some of the opportunities along with further debt reduction and returning value to shareholders.

Manav Gupta (Senior Equity Analyst)

Thank you so much and congrats on a very strong quarter.

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Phil Boggs (CFO)

Thanks, Manav.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Pooran Sharma with Stephens Inc. Your line is open.

Pooran Sharma (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Good morning and thanks for the question. Just wondering if maybe we could talk about some of the incremental unlocks beyond your Advantage Nebraska strategy. Apologies if I missed the details in your prepared remarks, but I think the last time, you know, last quarter the plan was to get about $50 million of EBITDA contribution from these assets that are non-Nebraska. You kind of went into detail on some of the initiatives you're working on. Now that we've gotten some visibility into 45Z contribution on Nebraska, was wondering if you could maybe peel the onion a little bit in terms of what can you do to unlock 45Z credits in your other assets beyond Nebraska and how do you get to that $50 million essentially?

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Yeah, that's a good question. I appreciate that for the non-pipeline plants or let's say non-Nebraska locations, you know, we have worked very diligently to improve the efficiency of those operations and effectively lower their CI scores to the point where we expect them to be sub 50, effectively earning 5 percentage points of CI reduction going forward. You know, there are opportunities to further make those plants more efficient with additional technologies that we have opportunities to implement. You know, we previously gave guidance around a $50 million P&L impact for those locations. We need to adjust that now that the Obion plant is not part of the fleet. Our adjusted number is around $38 million of P&L impact just based on a 120 million gal plant with 5 percentage points of CI reduction.

That is really where we sit and there is just opportunities to grow that here going forward.

Pooran Sharma (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Great. Thank you for that color there. I guess on my follow up, just, you know, maybe wanted to see if you could walk through the rationale on the converts. I mean, I imagine there's a tad bit of a, like a, you know, tug and pull between potential dilution, but then also just cleaning up your balance sheet and making sure that you all have a good runway to operate. Was just wondering if maybe you could just provide some rationale on that move.

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Yeah, I mean, I think in general we talked about Green Plains being an inflection point and with a desire to eliminate debt overhang and then provide the organization the opportunity to focus on execution in running the day to day business. You know, we want our employees focused on being great at buying corn, being great at running plants and being great at selling products. You know, the rationale behind the finance moves are really just to give us the opportunity to focus on the day to day business operations.

Pooran Sharma (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Right. Thank you for the caller.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with TPH. Your line is open.

Matthew Blair (Managing Director of Refiners, Chemicals, and Renewable Fuels Research)

Great, thanks for taking the question. And congrats on the strong utilization. 101% in the quarter. Could you talk a little bit more about the changes you were making at the plants? You know, we're noticing that your CapEx is, is pretty low here. So it seems like this is more process changes rather than throwing a lot of new money at the plant.

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Yeah, and that's a great, great question. You know, I think what you're seeing is the results of a focused effort. You know, we are not in the process of starting up new technologies or adding complexity to our business. You know, our teams are focused on, you know, the blocking and tackling of running and operating the plants, driving higher yields. So we're operating at higher yields than, you know, historically would have been anticipated when these plants were built. At the same time, a focused effort on reliability centered maintenance to reduce planned and unplanned downtime and putting in technical solutions to the things that cause us to shut down. That's really what's driving the improvements in capacity utilization to the point now where we want to rebaseline the performance of the plants for the, for the future.

It's a lot about, you know, setting expectation and improving the technical capabilities of both our, you know, corporate operations team and the plant management teams to run the assets as best we can.

Matthew Blair (Managing Director of Refiners, Chemicals, and Renewable Fuels Research)

Sounds good. And then for the $15 million-$25 million to 45Z credits in the fourth quarter, is that all coming from the Trailblazer plants or is there some contribution from the non-trailblazer plan as well? And then also why, you know, the range seems a little wide. What would put you at the lower end of the range versus the upper end of the range for the fourth quarter here?

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Sure, that's also a great question. It's important to note that we still need to execute on the remainder of the fourth quarter. You know, we've got the York, Nebraska plant up and fully operational at a very high capture efficiency, and we are in the process of getting Central City and Wood River ramped up in terms of capturing all the CO2 produced and putting it into the pipeline. It's still a work in progress, but we are very confident in our ability to execute on that piece. We just have to deliver here the remainder of the fourth quarter. To comment on the non-pipeline plants contributing to 45Z, we are working through PWA compliance for those locations that are currently operating at a sub 50 CI score.

It is really just about, you know, executing on that piece and managing the energy consumption for those plants to drive those credit values higher.

Matthew Blair (Managing Director of Refiners, Chemicals, and Renewable Fuels Research)

Sounds good, thank you.

Operator (participant)

Your next question from the line of Eric Stine with Craig-Hallum. Please go ahead.

Eric Stine (Analyst)

Good morning everyone.

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Morning.

Eric Stine (Analyst)

Morning. Morning. Hey, so you're just talking about the other plants, you know, the non-pipeline connected plants, and you mentioned the $38 million in potential 45Z. But can you give an idea of just what the investment might be? I know you're considering a number of things. I know some of those plants are already sub-50, but just some thoughts, you know, maybe, I know it's early days, but some thoughts on what that investment might look like.

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Yeah, good question. We do not have a specific investment plan, you know, for any of those plants, but we do have numerous technologies we can deploy at any location now. Because effectively starting January 1 with the removal of the ILUC or the indirect land use calculation on the CI score, you know, we are going to see all of those plants effectively capturing 45Z value. Each technology that is available to our plants has an equal footing regardless of pipeline status in terms of how it can deliver. We have a lot of options in front of us and we are just focused on delivering this fourth quarter, generating free cash flow to give us the opportunity to then reinvest into the business.

Eric Stine (Analyst)

Got it. So I mean, just as the calendar turns to 2026, it sounds like you do anticipate that you will start to capture some of that $38 million. It's just that there would be additional steps that you would need to take to fully capture it. Is that the way we should think about it?

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Oh, no. We expect to get the $38 million. That is our expectation for a 2026 run rate independent of any additional CapEx to drive CI scores lower.

Eric Stine (Analyst)

Got it. That is very helpful. Thanks for that. Maybe second one for me. You know, this is, I mean, gosh, the balance sheet and the flexibility you've got, you haven't had for a long, long time. I know you sold Obion. I mean, any thoughts? Do you kind of feel like now with your nine plants, this is where the platform should be, or. I mean, is it still kind of. You've got a portfolio and depending on your options, you know, there may be other asset sales?

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

With respect to our portfolio of plants, I mean, we feel good about the assets that we have, especially with respect to the rate of improvement we're seeing in those plant assets. You know, at the same time, we've done a lot of work to manage our, you know, total corporate SG&A. I feel like we've gotten the organization to its fighting weight, so to speak, such that we can be competitive in the ethanol space with the assets we have. You know, in terms of whether it be growth of business, you know, we have opportunities to grow volume in our existing footprint if and when we make that sort of decision. No, really anticipation of significant changes at this point in time.

Eric Stine (Analyst)

Okay, thank you.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Salvator Tiano with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Good morning, this is Hakeem on for Salvator. Quick question on the 45Z agreement on with Freepoint this year. Is it subject to any contingencies, and have these credits, when finalized and audited? Lastly, have you received any cash, and if not, when do you expect to receive cash flow? Thank you.

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Yeah, thanks for the question, Salvatore. Yeah, we earlier announced, you know, the completion of the 45Z production tax credit monetization agreement with Freepoint. And this is for effectively all of the carbon credits that we would generate during 2025. And we are, you know, actively marketing credits for 2026. And we feel good about the relationship with Freepoint in terms of the cash flow. I mean, that is one that is at our discretion depending based on our relationship with Freepoint. And we'll leave it at that.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Carol Jiang (Analyst)

Good morning, team. This is Carol Jiang for Lawrence Alexander. Could you add a bit more color on the status of clean sugar technology. Like what is the status and the near term monetization path for CST given the prior comments about wrapping up the effort. What are the 2026 cash cost implications if commercialization is kind of like deprioritized. Thank you.

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Yeah, very good question with respect to CST. As previously mentioned on earnings calls, you know, the CST technology does work and it is functional. The issue we have is additional CapEx requirements to debottleneck the technology to get the full earnings potential out of that process. You know, with the recent policy changes with respect to 45Z, now we see a shift in focus in terms of putting any available cash that we have to the places where it can generate the best possible returns. As it pertains specifically to the Shenandoah plant, we expect to, we're in a position of capturing 45Z tax credits today based on how efficiently that plant is operating in terms of ethanol yields and total plant throughput. We have to take that into account when it comes to justifying additional CapEx in CST.

As we mentioned, I think in last earnings call, we're going to reevaluate that mid-2026 in terms of the path forward. Once again that additional capital investment is going to have to compete with all the other opportunities we have to invest in our plant network.

Carol Jiang (Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Strelzik with BMO. Please go ahead.

Andrew Strelzik (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I'm sorry if I missed this, but in the prepared remarks you closed with a comment about the earnings power being transformed. I was just curious, you know, with the operational improvements you've done, the cost savings, these tax credit benefits, you know, how do you think about the earnings power going forward? How would you frame that?

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Yeah, if I think, you know, to frame up the ongoing earnings power. You know, a couple of comments, you know, we've talked about the Advantage Nebraska program delivering $150 million of P&L impact on a run rate basis. You know, just recently we discussed the non pipeline plants, you know, providing around a $38 million, you know, P&L impact. That's a significant shift for us. At the same time, you know, we also discussed reductions in SG&A on a year over year basis that are significant. We talked earlier in this year about achieving over a $50 million cost reduction target that on top of plant OpEx is reducing by more than $0.03 in 2025 relative to 2024.

We've got a lot of good news to share and we're very excited about being able to bring it to fruition here in 2026.

Phil Boggs (CFO)

Andrew, this is Phil. I'll just add to that, you know, on the balance sheet front, forward interest expense for the next 12 months looks to be, you know, more in that $30 million-$35 million range with the restructuring of the balance sheet that we've done, so much improved from that standpoint as well. You know, as Chris noted, significant improvement in core operational expenses with that $50 million, and then that combined $188 million of carbon-related 45Z production tax credits and voluntary tax credit earnings power for the full year of 2026. We do believe that we're in a significantly transformed earnings position going forward.

Andrew Strelzik (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, that's good color and super helpful. My other question kind of on the core underlying ethanol fundamentals, I think you said you're 75% hedged for the fourth quarter. How hedged are you for the first quarter? In addition to that, how are you guys thinking about potential contributions next year from ethanol exports and E15? Obviously a lot of headlines, trade agreements, those types of things. Can you kind of frame what a reasonable expectation around those two dynamics would be? Thank you.

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Yeah. With respect to position taking, we do not get into too much detail on where we sit, but we have talked about, you know, having a disciplined strategy and, you know, effectively we are going to be in the market every day looking for opportunities to lock in margin when the, you know, market provides that to us. We are active in Q4 and Q1 of 2026. You know, with respect to questions around demand drivers, you know, we see export demand strengthening on the basis of strong numbers, 2 billion+ gal in 2025. We expect that to grow with, in particular, demand coming from Canada, the EU, and India based on, you know, government mandates in those countries. Also, with respect to, you know, E15, acceptance in all 50 states is also an important driver of demand.

We don't really anticipate that to materialize until probably the second half of 2026 into 2027 based on the needs of developing infrastructure in that part of the world.

Andrew Strelzik (Equity Research Analyst)

Great, thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Final question from the line of Craig Irwin with Roth Capital. Your line is open.

Craig Irwin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Good morning and thanks for taking my question. You were very clear that the sequestration equipment is working and you're putting carbon in the pipeline. Can you clarify for us whether or not Trailblazer is injecting the carbon in the sequestration wells and is there any uncertainty around, you know, some of the delays there impacting the value of credits that you announced the sale of today?

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Thanks for the question, Craig. With respect to, you know, status of pipeline, just to recap, we have the York asset fully operational. We've got Central City and Wood River where we fully commissioned all of the equipment and are in the process of ramping up capture rates. Right now the pipeline team is working on basically operationalizing the entire pipeline, you know, sending the gas to Wyoming. There's a little bit of a time delay in between getting equipment commissioned on the capture side of things and the actual sequestration well itself. Like I mentioned, there's a little bit of time delay, but we are confident in our partner's ability to execute on the startup and commissioning of that equipment. We really feel good about where we're positioned.

Craig Irwin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, so the second question then is, do you face a potential limit on the inventorying of the carbon that you're putting into the pipeline given that there is a little bit of uncertainty around the injection at those wells in Wyoming, or is there fairly substantive potential to continue to put carbon into the pipeline?

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

Yeah, there's plenty of capacity, you know, for all of our plants to put the gas in the well. You know, the range we provided in terms of carbon anticipated value in Q4 is really based around the timing and the capture efficiency of our assets and also the execution of our base plant operations through the balance of Q4.

Craig Irwin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, fantastic. Thank you for taking my question.

Phil Boggs (CFO)

Thanks Greg.

Operator (participant)

Thank you everyone. That concludes our Q&A session for today. I will now turn the call over back to Mr. Chris Osowski for closing remarks. Please go ahead, Mr. Osowski.

Chris Osowski (President and CEO)

All right, thank you everyone for your time today and we look forward to updating you on our operational performance and financial results next quarter. If you have any follow up questions for us, please reach out and we'll find time to connect.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect. Have a nice day ahead everyone.