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    Gray Television Inc (GTN)

    Q1 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 18, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$6.66Last close (May 6, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$6.97Open (May 7, 2024)
    Price Change
    $0.31(+4.65%)
    • Gray Television is experiencing sustained growth in core advertising revenue, surpassing 2019 levels, due to a more diverse advertiser base, strong investments in sales training, and a focus on new local direct business, indicating that this growth is sustainable. ,
    • The company is expanding into fast channels and connected TV offerings with an ad sales model, expecting significant growth over the next few years as more stations are rolled out on these platforms, unlocking new revenue streams. ,
    • Gray Television stands to benefit from the rollout of ATSC 3.0 (NextGen TV), expecting to start generating revenues from this new technology as early as the first quarter of next year, with meaningful contributions in a few years, enhancing future profitability.
    • Management is uncertain about the timeline and materiality of monetizing their extra spectrum via ATSC 3.0 (NEXTGEN TV), stating that while revenues may start next year, significant revenues are "a matter of years" away and difficult to forecast.
    • The company's deleveraging strategy relies solely on organic free cash flow without asset sales or dividend cuts despite high leverage ratios, which may raise concerns about the speed and effectiveness of debt reduction. The CEO stated, "We don't intend to sell any assets... We are generating a huge amount of free cash flow. And we will use that to deleverage the company."
    • Core advertising growth faces uncertainties due to tough comparisons and volatility in certain categories, such as gambling, which management describes as "a little sort of lumpy... Some quarters it's up, some quarters it's down."
    1. Deleveraging and Capital Allocation
      Q: Will you consider asset sales or dividend changes to deleverage?
      A: We do not intend to sell any assets or cut the dividend. Our Board hasn't even considered cutting the dividend. We generate a huge amount of free cash flow and will use that to deleverage organically. We see no panic and are not concerned. We're going to reduce our debt just like we've done for the last 30 years.

    2. Net Retransmission Revenue Outlook
      Q: Will net retransmission revenue resume growth in 2025 and 2026?
      A: After we finish the remaining roughly 30% rate renewals this year, we have about 18 months with no retrans agreements up for renewal. Retrans should be more stable in 2025, and as we get past 2025 into 2026 and 2027, we have an opportunity to grow. We expect to reset fees in 2025 when we renew our network affiliation agreements, which should allow us to return to net retrans growth.

    3. Core Advertising Sustainability
      Q: Is your outperformance in core advertising sustainable?
      A: Yes, we think we can continue to grow. Being ahead of 2019 now is remarkable. We have a more diverse basket of advertisers, and our investment in training and focusing on certain categories and verticals is paying dividends. Services are a huge part of our revenue now, and we're in much better shape.

    4. Debt Repurchase and Deleveraging
      Q: Will you repurchase discounted debt to accelerate deleveraging?
      A: It's a balanced approach. While we need to address the short maturities in due course, we're aware of debt trading in the 60s and would like to capitalize on that to accelerate deleveraging, without sacrificing our liquidity position or the need to reapproach the markets for refinancing.

    5. Sports JV Misunderstanding
      Q: Can you clarify how the Sports JV impacts your business?
      A: The Sports JV shouldn't disintermediate us; it should help us going forward. Some thought the reference to Fox and ABC meant national networks, which don't exist. Broadcast networks work via local TV stations. A virtual MVPD that carries local affiliates will compensate them for their signals. If successful, it's incremental revenue for all of us.

    6. Assembly Atlanta Project Revenues
      Q: When will Assembly Atlanta start generating full revenues?
      A: We anticipate being more fully leased out at 100% sometime during 2024. We've had a lag in commitments due to potential strikes but expect the issue to be resolved by the end of May, leading to a boom. We have a long-term lease with Universal Production Services, creating a financial 70% occupancy rate for our studios.

    7. Monetizing ATSC 3.0 NEXTGEN TV
      Q: When will you start monetizing ATSC 3.0?
      A: We'll start seeing revenues probably in the first quarter of next year. Material revenues will come in a matter of years, and I think it will be sooner than the end of the decade. The money will be meaningful in a few years.

    8. Feedback on Local Sports Distribution
      Q: What feedback have you received on airing local games?
      A: The feedback has been extraordinary from fans and teams. Audiences are significantly above former levels—up 70–80% in Phoenix, and in some markets, ratings were up over 200%. Fans are able to see their team, and advertisers are excited about reaching larger audiences.

    9. National Advertising Improvement
      Q: Why is national advertising better for you now?
      A: We had a good quarter for national advertising, with categories like consumer goods up high single digits. National is a smaller piece for us, but this quarter was very good due to a broad set of key categories being up.

    10. Leverage Levels by Year-End
      Q: Will leverage get under 5 by the end of this year?
      A: We don't think we'll quite get below 5x, but we should be getting into the low 5s by the end of the year.

    11. Cord-Cutting Impact on Retrans Revenue
      Q: How does cord-cutting affect your retransmission revenue?
      A: Traditional MVPD subs are declining double digits, and virtuals and DTCs are growing at a healthy clip. We're exposed at the same level as everyone else but perhaps a bit more due to the price difference between traditional subs and virtual subs. Our traditional rates are at the high end of the industry, so when subs move to virtual platforms with lower rates, it impacts us more.

    12. Economic Model for Fast Channels
      Q: What economic model are you pursuing for fast channels?
      A: It's an ad sales model. While it's a small number today, we expect it to grow dramatically as we roll out more of our stations on fast platforms. We're in the early stages of rollout right now.

    13. Agency Business Increase
      Q: Will agency business become a greater percent of revenue?
      A: We don't think our agency share of revenue will grow significantly going forward. Because we skew to midsize and smaller markets, we have a lower percentage of agency business than most groups. The area we control better is local direct.