Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Growth in non-M&A corporate finance services: Houlihan Lokey's capital markets business continues to grow significantly, supported by strategic acquisitions like Triago. These acquisitions are expected to have a meaningful impact on growth within the non-M&A areas of corporate finance.
- Increasing sponsor engagement indicates potential uptick in deal activity: The firm is experiencing a steady increase in sponsor conversations, which suggests that financial sponsors are becoming more active. This could lead to increased deal activity and revenue growth for Houlihan Lokey.
- Elevated restructuring activity expected to continue: The restructuring business remains at elevated levels and is expected to stay strong for the next year or two. This sustained demand for restructuring services provides a solid revenue stream for the firm.
- Elongated deal cycles and sluggish M&A recovery: The time frame to close deals remains elongated, with buyers having leverage and causing delays. This sluggish macro environment makes deals harder to close and is taking longer than expected to improve, potentially impacting HLI's financial performance negatively.
- Low Managing Director productivity: Despite an increase in Managing Director headcount, HLI is experiencing low productivity per Managing Director relative to historical levels. While there are expectations for improvements, it's too early to tell if productivity levels will return to previous highs, which could affect the firm's profitability.
- Uncertain macroeconomic environment affecting deal activity: The overall sluggish macro environment and uncertainties, such as interest rate changes, are causing hesitation among clients and making it harder to close deals. This ongoing uncertainty may continue to hamper HLI's growth prospects.
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Restructuring Outlook
Q: What's the near-term outlook for restructuring revenues?
A: We expect restructuring activity to remain at an elevated level for the next year or two, driven by companies needing solutions amid higher interest rates and ongoing technology disruptions. Our restructuring franchise is global, and both we and the industry anticipate an uptick in this area, though it remains our most volatile business. -
M&A Environment Recovery
Q: Can you unpack the sluggish M&A environment?
A: We're making slow but steady progress, growing in headcount, client quality, and mandates. However, the time from mandate to closing remains longer than normal. We expect this year to be better than last, but the sluggish macro environment makes closing deals harder. -
Deal Cycle Normalization
Q: What could drive normalization of deal timelines?
A: As the current buyer's market shifts toward equilibrium, we expect deal velocity to pick up. Buyers presently have leverage to delay deals, but this is changing week by week, and we anticipate faster closures as buyer leverage decreases. -
Sponsor Activity Increasing
Q: How are sponsor dialogues and expectations evolving?
A: Sponsor conversations are steadily increasing across the spectrum. The level of dialogues continues to pick up daily, and while deal velocity varies, there's a clear uptick in activity as we move forward. -
Non-M&A Growth Prospects
Q: How are non-M&A corporate finance businesses performing?
A: Our capital markets business continues to grow nicely and is a strong area for us. With the acquisition of Triago and additions to our PFG business, we expect meaningful growth in non-M&A areas of corporate finance in upcoming periods. -
European Market Position
Q: How has the GCA acquisition enhanced your position in Europe?
A: The GCA transaction has materially evolved our European business, significantly increasing our importance in the marketplace. We are now just steps behind institutions that have operated for hundreds of years, at least from a deal count standpoint. -
Triago Synergies
Q: What are the synergies from the Triago acquisition?
A: With Triago, we can offer an integrated solution to sponsors, ranging from primary and secondary markets to GP and LP stakes and financings. We feel very good about the opportunities ahead, though we don't disclose specific contributions. -
MD Productivity Outlook
Q: How should we think about revenue per MD as activity picks up?
A: Corporate Finance is well-staffed relative to current revenues, so productivity is low on a relative basis. Improvements in average transaction size and fee size are expected to drive productivity as markets recover, though reaching COVID-levels is tough due to factors like resumed travel. -
Mid-cap vs. Large-cap Deals
Q: What's causing divergence between large-cap and mid-cap activity?
A: We focus on the total volume of deals, not deal value. While large-cap deals may get attention, the vast majority of global deals are mid-cap, where we have a small market share. We don't see a meaningful difference in health between large-cap and mid-cap activity. -
Geographical and Sector Trends
Q: Any geographies or sectors showing more acceleration?
A: No specific sectors or geographies are notably stronger or weaker at this time. While there have been some ebbs and flows between the U.S. and Europe, there's no discernible difference currently. Our Asian business remains at a different scale compared to the U.S. and Europe. -
Impact of Rate Expectations
Q: How are clients responding to changing Fed rate expectations?
A: Activity levels are more influenced by the availability of capital than its cost. Capital is currently very available, and clients are aggressively deploying it, which is positive. While pricing affects valuations, availability drives activity more than cost does.