Q3 2024 Summary
Published Jan 28, 2025, 9:22 PM UTCMetric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | Q3 2024 | $12.5B to $13.5B | $13.284B | Beat |
Gross Margin | Q3 2024 | ~38% | ~15% (calculated from Revenue: 13,284Minus COGS: 11,287) | Missed |
EPS | Q3 2024 | -$0.03 | -$3.90 | Missed |
-
Gross Margin Outlook
Q: What caused Q3 gross margin upside and why is it declining in Q4?
A: The Q3 gross margin of 41% was better than expected due to better sell-through of previously reserved inventory, which won't repeat in Q4. In Q4, margins will be pressured by increased start-up costs associated with 18A, guiding to a 39.5% gross margin , which serves as a clean starting point for 2025 gross margins. -
2025 Revenue and Margin Expectations
Q: How should we think about 2025 sales growth and gross margins?
A: They're managing investments to a 3% to 5% growth rate next year. The 39.5% gross margin guide for Q4 is a starting point for 2025. They expect more headwinds in the second half due to Lunar Lake becoming a meaningful part of volume, which pressures gross margins in 2025. -
Foundry Business Revenue Growth
Q: How large is external foundry revenue currently, and how will it grow?
A: External foundry revenue will be a modest portion for the next few years, dominated by internal products. They aim for $15 billion-plus in external foundry revenue by the end of the decade. Majority of foundry revenues will come from internal products in the near term. -
18A Defect Density and Yields
Q: How does 0.4 defect density on 18A translate to yields?
A: A defect density of less than 0.4 is healthy at this development phase but not yet at high-volume production levels. Defect density needs to be markedly lower for high-volume production planned for the second half of next year. They're on track and see all necessary signs to achieve this. -
Impact of Lunar Lake on Margins
Q: How much does memory packaging in Lunar Lake affect gross margins?
A: Lunar Lake, with memory in the package, significantly impacts gross margins. Originally expected to be one-third of volume next year, they've increased volume due to the AIPC market , which puts pressure on gross margins in 2025. -
Intel's AI Strategy
Q: Without a competitive AI product, is being CPU-centric enough?
A: The CPU plays an increasing role in data center AI compute. Intel's strategy is CPU plus accelerator or CPU plus Gaudi. They've seen good early interest in Gaudi 3 and are focusing on the x86 ecosystem, which has significant industry interest. -
Recapturing Server CPU Share
Q: How do you plan to stabilize or recapture server CPU market share?
A: The goal is to stabilize position and grow from there. With Xeon 6, Granite Rapids, and Sierra Forest fully shipping, they aim to hold share and then regain it. The AWS deal reinforces Xeon and their customization role. -
Capacity Optionality and 18A
Q: If 18A gets delayed, what capacity options do you have?
A: They have optionality in the product portfolio and more resilience in their supply chain than competitors. They value the relationship with TSMC and have flexibility to scale up if market conditions require. -
CapEx and OpEx Flexibility
Q: How much flexibility is there in CapEx and OpEx in '25 and '26?
A: The $17.5 billion for OpEx is a firm plan with little variability. CapEx has flexibility in capacity investments based on demand and cash flow. The goal is to generate free cash flow and adjusted free cash flow next year and onwards. -
Panther Lake Production Plans
Q: Are most Panther Lake tiles still being outsourced?
A: Some tiles are external, but over 70% of the silicon area is back in-house. The majority of Panther Lake wafer capacity is coming back inside. For Nova Lake, the large majority is committed to Intel's internal production or foundry. -
Demand for Foundry Packaging Services
Q: Why aren't we seeing more interest in your packaging services?
A: They see significant interest, but moving supply chains is complicated and takes time. They've made progress with design wins included in their lifetime deal value and have a strong pipeline of additional designs. Advanced packaging was profitable this quarter. -
Narrowing Product Focus
Q: What does narrowing product focus and prioritizing x86 mean?
A: They're simplifying product lines and reducing SKUs to focus on core investments. Actions include consolidating products and leveraging investments to meet the $17.5 billion OpEx target while aiming for profitable growth. -
IDM 2.0 Model Considerations
Q: Does prioritizing x86 change the IDM 2.0 model?
A: External foundry requires a different management approach, but wafers and cash flows come from internal business. The subsidiary model is key to drive cultural transformation while maintaining a leading-edge foundry model. -
"Better Together" Strategy Rationale
Q: Explain the rationale for the "Better Together" strategy.
A: Moving to a subsidiary model for foundry aims for operational integrity and clearer communication with customers. The synergies of co-development and customer relationships are substantial, and the success of the foundry is tied to internal products.