Kinder Morgan - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the quarterly earnings conference call. Your lines are in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session of today's conference. At that time, you may press star followed by the number one to ask a question. Please unmute your phones and state your first and last name when prompted. Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Mr. Rich Kinder, Executive Chairman of Kinder Morgan. Sir, you may begin.

Rich Kinder (Executive Chairman)

Okay, thank you, Michelle. And before we begin, I'd like to remind you, as usual, that KMI's earnings release today and this call include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as well as certain non-GAAP financial measures. Before making any investment decisions, we strongly encourage you to read our full disclosures on forward-looking statements and use of non-GAAP financial measures set forth at the end of our earnings release, as well as review our latest filings with the SEC for important material assumptions, expectations, and risk factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated and described in such forward-looking statements.

In my remarks at the beginning of our second quarter investor call, I talked about future demand for natural gas and why that makes us bullish about the future of KMI. The biggest portion of that growth in demand is attributable to LNG. So let me follow up on this call by reviewing the latest estimates regarding future U.S. feed gas demand to serve the country's LNG export facilities. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates LNG feed gas demand at 13.1 BCF a day for 2023, and projects that it will grow to 24.7 BCF a day in 2028 and to 27.5 BCF a day in 2023. IEA estimates that U.S. LNG exports as a share of global LNG supply will grow from 20% in 2022 to almost 30% in 2026.

All of these numbers demonstrate incredible growth, which is driven, of course, by new LNG export facilities that have been FID, most of which are currently under construction. Now, how does this increased demand affect the midstream energy segment, and specifically, Kinder Morgan? To meet this increased feed gas demand, the country is going to need additional pipelines and not just header pipelines to the export terminals, but also significant expansion of the pipeline infrastructure upstream from those header systems and terminals. While we believe Haynesville production will grow to supply a portion of this demand because of its proximity to the LNG facilities in Louisiana and Southeast Texas, it will not be able to fulfill all these growth volumes, and additional takeaway capacity from multiple basins will be required. Access to multiple basins is also important to help solve the excess nitrogen problem confronting LNG export facilities.

While there are other midstream players who will also benefit, we think Kinder Morgan, which is currently transporting a little less than half of all U.S. LNG feed gas, is in excellent position to take advantage of this tremendous opportunity because of the extensive footprint of our pipeline network, particularly in Texas and Louisiana, where so much of the additional demand will occur. With that, I'll turn it over to Kim and the team.

Kim Dang (CEO)

Okay, thanks, Rich. I'll make a few overall points, and then I'm going to turn it over to Tom and David to give you more details. We had a solid quarter financially. We continued to find opportunities to add to our backlog. We repurchased $73 million in shares at an average price of $16.77. That brings us to $472 million of share repurchases year to date at a very attractive price of $16.58. Financially, our portfolio of assets performed well, with contributions from the segments up 5%, driven by increases in natural gas, products, and terminals. Products had a particularly strong quarter, up 22%. Overall, our results were largely flat because of increased interest expense and sustaining CapEx, which we anticipated in our budget.

For the year versus our budget, our expectations remain the same as what we communicated last quarter, slightly below our guidance, which can all be attributed to lower commodity prices. Versus the guidance we gave you last quarter, we have seen some benefit from improved commodity prices, but that was largely offset by other moving pieces. For example, delays in our ETV projects, all netting to leave us approximately in the same place for the full year that we discussed with you last quarter. We continue to see good opportunities to add to the backlog, and we're more than able to more than offset the projects that went into service with new additions. The backlog now stands at $3.8 billion, with an average multiple of 4.7x. We see opportunities beyond the backlog, especially in natural gas.

As Rich said, demand is expected to grow by more than 20%, and the biggest driver of that growth is LNG, where many LNG exporters are interested in capacity further upstream to secure more competitively priced and diverse supply. Power demand and exports to Mexico also provide opportunities. We're seeing incremental power demand from new peaker plants in Texas and conversions from coal to natural gas, and that benefits our existing business as well as provides future opportunity. Tom will have more details on this in a minute. We also see additional opportunities for renewable diesel on the West Coast and are actively talking to customers about projects. We're delivering according to the strategy we laid out many years ago. One, maintain a solid balance sheet. We ended the quarter at 4.1x, continuing to maintain some cushion versus our 4.5x long-term target.

2, invest in high return projects that we internally fund. Since the second quarter of 2022, we've added almost $1.2 billion to the backlog, and we continue to find good prospects. And 3, return capital to our shareholders through a well-covered dividend and opportunistic share repurchase. We've returned $17.1 billion to our shareholders over the last 8 years, which is about 45% of our market cap. With that, I'll turn it over to Tom.

Tom Martin (President)

Thanks, Kim. So starting with the natural gas business unit, transport volumes increased by 5%, which is about 1.9 million dekatherms per day for the quarter versus third quarter of 2022, driven by EPNG's Line 2000 return to service, increased natural, LNG feed gas demand, increased power demand, and increased industrial demand. These increases were partially offset by decreased exports to Mexico. Our natural gas gathering volumes were up 11% in the quarter compared to the third quarter of 2022, driven by Haynesville volumes, which were up 23%, Bakken volumes, which were up 13%, Eagle Ford volumes were up 7%. For the year, we expect gathering volumes to be up nicely, 16%, but about 4% below our plan, driven primarily by egress project delays and an asset sale.

As you can see from the overall growth in transmission and gathering volumes, the gas markets continue to be robust. Power demand was particularly notable this quarter. We set a new network peak demand day record of 11.1 million dekatherms per day on August 24, and monthly total demand records both in July and August of 9.35 and 9.81 million dekatherms per day, respectively. Sixteen of our 20 highest all-time network power demand days occurred this quarter. These statistics reinforce the critical role that our natural gas pipelines and storage assets play in support of the power sector. In our products pipeline segment, refined products volumes were up slightly for the quarter versus third quarter 2022. Gasoline volumes were up 1%, while diesel volumes were down 2% for the comparable quarter last year.

Diesel volumes continued to be lower, primarily in California, as the growing renewable diesel volumes, displacing conventional diesel, were initially transported by methods other than pipeline. However, the reduction in conventional diesel volumes does not reflect the true economic picture for us, as the RD hub projects we placed in service earlier this year are largely underpinned with take-or-pay contracts. So we get paid most of our revenue, even if the volumes do not flow. That said, renewable diesel volumes on our pipelines have been ramping up considerably since the RD hubs came online, up from 700 a day in Q1 of this year to 24,000 a day in Q3. Overall, jet fuel volumes increased 5% for the quarter versus third quarter 2022.

Crude and condensate volumes were up 5% in the quarter versus third quarter 2022, driven by higher Bakken and Eagle Ford volumes. In our terminals business segment, our liquids lease capacity remains high at 95%, excluding tanks out of service for required inspections, approximately 96% of our capacity is leased. Utilization at our key hubs at Houston Ship Channel and New York Harbor strengthened in the quarter versus third quarter 2022, and we continue to see nice rate increases in those markets as the fundamentals improve. Our Jones Act tankers were 98% leased through 2024, assuming likely options are exercised. On the bulk side, overall volumes were down 5% from the third quarter 2022, primarily from lower coal, grain, and metals tonnage, partially offset by increases in pet coke and soda ash.

Grain volumes have minimal impact on our financial result, results, so excluding grain, our bulk volumes are down about 3%. Financial results benefited from rate escalations in the quarter. The CO2 segment experienced lower overall volumes and prices on NGL, CO2, and oil production versus the third quarter 2022. Overall, oil production decreased by 2% from the third quarter last year, but was above our plan for this quarter. For the year, we expect net oil volume to exceed our plan, largely due to better-than-expected performance from projects, as well as strong volumes post the February outage at SACROC. These favorable volumes relative to the 2023 plan help offset some of the price weakness that we've experienced. With that, I'll turn it over to David Michels.

David Michels (VP and CFO)

All right. Thanks, Tom. So for the third quarter of 2023, we're declaring a dividend of $0.2825 per share, which is $1.13 per share, annualized, or 2% up from last year's dividend. Before I get into the quarterly performance, a few highlights. We've continued with our opportunistic share repurchase program, as Kim mentioned, bringing our year-to-date total repurchases to 28.5 million shares at an average price of $16.58 per share, creating very good value for our shareholders. We ended the third quarter with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 4.1x, which leaves us with good capacity under our leverage target of around 4.5x, despite $472 million of unbudgeted share repurchases during the year.

And while, as Kim mentioned, we are forecasting to be slightly below budget on full year DCF and EBITDA, more than all of that can be explained by lower than budgeted commodity prices. Meanwhile, we continue to see better than budgeted performance in both our natural gas and terminals businesses. Now, on to the quarterly performance. We generated revenues of $3.9 billion, which is down five, down from $5.2 billion in the third quarter of 2022, which is down $1.3 billion. Cost of sales was also down $1.3 billion, and that is due to the large decline in commodity prices from last year to this year.

As you'll recall, we entered into offsetting purchase and sales positions in our Texas intrastate natural gas pipeline system, and that results in an effective take-or-pay transportation service, but it leaves our revenue and cost of sales both exposed to price fluctuations. While, meanwhile, our margin is generally not impacted by price. Interest expense was higher versus 2022, as we expected, driven by the higher short-term rates, which impacted our floating rate swaps. We generated net income attributable to KMI of $532 million, down 8% from the third quarter of last year. Our earnings per share was $0.24, which is $0.01 down from $0.22. Our adjusted earnings was $562 million, down 2% compared to the third quarter of 2022, and our adjusted EPS was flat with last year.

Excluding the impact from interest expense, we would have been favorable to last year. Our share count was down $23 million, or 1% versus the third quarter of 2022, due to our share repurchase efforts. On our business segment performance, improvements in our natural gas terminals and product segments, which were all up, were partially offset by lower contributions from our CO2 segment. The favorable natural gas segment performance was driven by greater sales margin on our Texas intrastate system, favorable rates on recontracting at our Midcontinent Express Pipeline, as well as contributions from EPNG. Those were partially offset by unfavorable recontracting impacts on our South Texas assets. Our product pipeline segment was up due to unfavorable pricing impacts in the second quarter of last year, as well as rate escalations across multiple assets.

Our terminal segment was up mainly due to improved contributions from our Jones Act tanker business and expansion project contributions. Our CO2 segment was down due to lower CO2 and NGL price and volume, as well as higher power costs. And those were all partially offset by contributions from our renewable natural gas business. Our adjusted EBITDA was $1.835 billion for the quarter, up 3% from last year. Our DCF was $1.094 billion, down 2% from last year, and our DCF was $0.49, equal to last year. Again, excluding interest expense, we were favorable to last year. Moving on to our balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with $30.9 billion of net debt.

Our net debt has decreased $9 million since the beginning of the year, and on a year-to-date basis, the reconciliation is as follows: We've generated $4.17 billion of cash from operations. We've paid out $1.9 billion in dividends. We've also funded $1.85 billion in total capital expenditures, and that includes growth, sustaining, and contributions to JVs. Settled through the third quarter, we had stock repurchases of $389 million. That gets you pretty close to the $9 million change in net debt year to date. With that, I'll turn it back to Kim.

Kim Dang (CEO)

I think, David, on the share count, you meant it was down 23 million shares.

David Michels (VP and CFO)

Yeah, that's right.

Kim Dang (CEO)

Okay. With that, we will take questions. We ask that when it is your turn to ask questions, you limit it to one and a follow-up, consideration of others waiting in the queue. But you're welcome to get back in line if you have additional questions after that. So, operator Michelle, would you please open it up for questions?

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, you may press star one. Please unmute your phones and state your first and last name when prompted. To withdraw your question, you may press star two. One moment, please. Jeremy Tonet with JP Morgan, you may go ahead, sir.

Jeremy Tonet (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, good afternoon.

Kim Dang (CEO)

Hello, Jeremy.

Jeremy Tonet (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Just want to start off with a high-level question, if I could. Just coming back to some of the commentaries you said in the past, given that the business has worked through a lot of, I guess, adverse contract roles and other kind of headwinds are in the past. If you think about the current portfolio, how do you think, the EBITDA growth generation is for this asset base? Do you see this as low single-digit EBITDA growth, mid-single digit EBITDA growth, or any other, I guess, framework that you could provide for us would be helpful?

Kim Dang (CEO)

Sure. So I think, you know, we will go through our 2024 budget, in the next six weeks or so. I think that'll give us a better idea for 2024. But just, you know, at a high level, you're right that, we have had some contract rollovers. We, we published those for you for the last couple of years in our analyst conference, and, we stopped doing that because, the headwinds, with respect to rollovers, et cetera, were not, were no longer material. So, you know, I think the, the network and natural gas, as you know, the pipes have filled up. Average utilization has gone much higher. You know, that allows you, to charge higher rates. That also means that your customers need ancillary services.

Storage rates have increased significantly, so we're able to charge more for storage. Obviously, on our contracts and products and terminals, we have inflation escalators, which help increase the EBITDA in those businesses. We've seen some nice rate increases, especially as a result of improving markets on the terminal side, especially in the New York Harbor. And so those businesses have some nice tailwinds. I think in CO2, obviously, the forward curve right now is that it's a little bit below where we are right now, but I think on average, it is above where we have been. The 2024 curve is above 2023. I think rent prices in 2024 are above 2023 right now.

We will have these projects that are in service. So I think, you know, we have a lot of tailwinds coming in this business. I would say, you know, the one thing that we have to manage is just the regulatory environment, which, you know, we've seen increase over the last couple of years. And so those are things we'll address as we go through the 2024 budget. But it's, we've got a lot of project opportunities also on gas, to, you know, some, a lot of which we have added to the backlog, but there's still many, many more that aren't in the backlog yet. And I went through some of those in my opening commentary.

It's hard to boil it all down to a rate until we get very specific on numbers. I think, you know, in terms, the tailwinds right now are very nice.

Jeremy Tonet (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful. Thanks for that. And maybe just kind of pivoting gears a little bit here towards capital allocation and see that the leverage is still at 4.1, which I think is below the long-term target here. And it seems like most of the buybacks have been done below $17. And so when you think about capital allocation, do you think this buybacks below $17 send a message to the market on how management thinks about the value of the stock, or do you see more value in retaining dry powder for acquisitions or growth CapEx? Just wondering if you could update us on your thoughts there.

Kim Dang (CEO)

Sure. I mean, I think that where we have our return set with respect to projects, as we've stated a lot of times, is in the mid-teens. And we move up and down from that depending on the risk of the project. And so, you know, those are gonna be very nice returns, and well above our cost of capital. And so the priority when we have our target returns set at that threshold are gonna take priority over share repurchase. That being said, when we have excess cash flow, and we will do opportunistic share repurchase. And so we don't have unlimited cash flow to do share repurchases, and so we want to make sure that when we do those, we're getting a very attractive price.

Jeremy Tonet (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next caller is Jean Ann Salisbury with Bernstein. You may go ahead.

Jean Ann Salisbury (Senior Analyst)

Hi. I think mine are for Tom. I know you've talked a bit on prior calls about rates for gas storage rising and getting close to $3. I wanted to understand how much of KMI's 700 BCF of storage should eventually be able to reset up to these higher rates and the timeline of that occurring.

Tom Martin (President)

Yeah, I mean, I'll give you a high level, and then let Steve step in for more clarity. But yeah, I mean, much of that capacity is a single cycle reservoir storage. You know, a smaller percentage of that is salt storage, which is really what the multi-cycle storage facilities, which garner those higher rates. As you know, part of our storage is in regulated services, so there's limits as to what rate increases we can charge for those services. But what we're seeing in those instances, we're getting, you know, much longer term. And, you know, we also have, as you know, PAL services, which are, you know, another way where we can extract additional value that may not be, you know, limited by regulatory caps.

And so, you know, it's hard to put a number to answer your question, but I, you know, we do think whether it's through salt service that we sell, fee for service, or these opportunistic PAL services, both short-term and long-term, that we do, as well as getting additional duration on our single cycle storage services, we're getting additional value out of this growing trend in storage. Anything more-

Jean Ann Salisbury (Senior Analyst)

Okay, that makes sense.... Great. And my other question was about the Wyoming Interstate project that I saw in the release. Is that basically just using currently unused capacity on WIC for the 400 MMcf/d? I was wondering if there's any material CapEx associated with that, or it's just, you know, you just start moving flow on an empty pipeline.

Sital Mody (VP and President of Natural Gas Pipelines)

Hi, Jean Ann, this is Sital. So really from a Kinder standpoint, we've got the minimal capital, mostly interconnect capital. You know, we see Bakken GOR rising significantly.

Jean Ann Salisbury (Senior Analyst)

Yeah.

Sital Mody (VP and President of Natural Gas Pipelines)

This is an example of a collaborative project that maximizes infrastructure that's in existence today, and on our side, very little capital.

Jean Ann Salisbury (Senior Analyst)

Great. That's all for me. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next caller is Brian Reynolds with UBS. You may go ahead, sir.

Brian Reynolds (Director and Senior Midstream Energy Analyst)

Hi, good morning or good afternoon, everyone. Maybe to start off a little high level, you know, on Kinder's positioning to support this 20% increase in natural gas demand by 2028 that you put in the release. You know, it seems like Kinder is well positioned for this growth, but we could see CapEx trend higher to of that $1 to 2 billion range. So, you know, some of these projects that are helping debottleneck the Texas-Louisiana Corridor, GCX expansion, and potential more Permian greenfield that's needed. Just kind of curious, high level, you know, can you talk about the opportunity set, that Kinder has, you know, just given Kinder's prior comments of looking to maintain that 50% market share around LNG supply going forward? Thanks.

Kim Dang (CEO)

Yeah. I'll make a couple of high-level comments about the opportunity set, and then Sital and Tom can add in. I think, you know, there's multiple opportunities on the LNG front. So you've got the NextDecade down in South Texas, so that, you know, is gonna require incremental pipeline infrastructure, probably. You've got multiple facilities coming in, you know, along the Texas-Louisiana border. And those—a lot of—some of those have existing header pipes, some of them don't. Some of them are wanting to reach further back.

As a result of the sucking sound of LNG on the Gulf Coast, you have a Southeast market that is short supply, and so there's opportunities to try to expand pipeline capacity into the Southeast to help meet some of the demand there. There is opportunities for exports to Mexico. I think they're building a number of new power plants, which don't have supply yet. Some of that's out on the West Coast of Mexico. So there's opportunity to serve that new power plant load. There's also LNG facilities that are going on the West Coast of Mexico, and so there's incremental opportunity there. In California, they've just announced that they're extending the life of their natural gas facilities, and they're increasing the capacity of Aliso Canyon.

And so I think people are understanding that natural gas is gonna, is going to play a big role for a longer period of time, than what some people out there previously thought. You know, we're seeing, as you know, Tom talked through all the power demand, you know, we're still seeing some coal conversions to natural gas, which is driving demand. And then there's industrial growth on the Texas Gulf Coast. And so I think there are a number of different factors driving the growth, but I think, you know, most of it is in the southern market. It's really hard to get infrastructure built into the Northeast.

You know, Wood Mackenzie shows 90%-95% of the gas demand growth in natural gas occurring in Texas and Louisiana.

Sital Mody (VP and President of Natural Gas Pipelines)

I think the only thing I'll add to that, you know, we're what—when you think about the competitive landscape, we're heavily competitive, right? And so I think what differentiates us is our network. I think what we, what we'll bring to the table is our on-system storage, our balancing capabilities, and then, and then more recently, we've been focused on expanding our ability to aggregate nitrogen. And I think that's what's gonna help differentiate us from the competition.

Kim Dang (CEO)

Yeah. The other thing I'd say is, that helps differentiate is the fact that we can provide, shippers with multiple different outlets. So if, you know, an LNG, shipper, if the international markets change and the ships go somewhere else, you know, we can, given the pipeline system that we have, can help them redirect those flows, if they have storage services, into storage, but if they don't have storage service, to other markets.

Brian Reynolds (Director and Senior Midstream Energy Analyst)

Great. Thanks for all of that. Maybe as my follow-up, to touch on just the CapEx backlog build multiple. It's got a lot of focus over the previous few quarters, so you know, it seemed to trend a little bit higher this quarter, you know, with an increase of the backlog as well. So just kind of wondering if you can talk about the moving pieces there, whether it's new projects driving it, or whether the rising rate environment is having an impact on future returns. Any color would be helpful. Thanks.

Kim Dang (CEO)

Sure. Absolutely. So one, let me start with the fact, and we talked a little bit about this last quarter, that, you know, the backlog multiple is not our focus. What we focus on is the return on projects. And so. You know, and we run a long-term cash flow and assume a terminal value or not, and assume a renewal or a partial renewal or not. And for you guys, what we do in the backlog is we just look at first year EBITDA and translate that into a multiple to try to help you understand sort of what these projects are gonna generate. But the way. So all I'm saying is that. The multiple may move up or down on the backlog, and these are still very attractive projects.

So it's not like we only do projects that come into the backlog at 3x. And we're dealing with kind of a mid-teens average unlevered IRR, and we're adjusting up or down from that slightly based on cash flow risk. But this quarter, what we saw was the projects that went into service were about roughly 3x multiples. The projects that we placed into the backlog, so that the added projects were about a 4x multiple. And then, on one of the existing projects in the backlog, we decreased the year one EBITDA. And the reason we did that was, because we think that project's going to take a little longer time to ramp into the EBITDA. And so we'll get—we think we'll get to the EBITDA that was in the backlog.

It just won't happen till later in time. It won't be year one. Now, even if we never ramped on that project, that project is still a very attractive return, and I think we feel pretty good that we are going to add incremental volume there.

Brian Reynolds (Director and Senior Midstream Energy Analyst)

Great. Makes sense. I'll leave it there. Enjoy the rest of your evening. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Our next caller is Tristan Richardson with Scotiabank.

Kim Dang (CEO)

Hey, Tristan.

Tristan Richardson (Analyst)

Hey, good morning. Good evening. Just appreciate it, Kim. I guess just given the growth you guys are seeing in the core transport business, and certainly volumes are growing in midstream, but as you said, volumes are a little below plan, you guys are working on asset sales. I mean, do you see midstream continuing to contribute less to the business, maybe as a percent over time, especially as we kind of look into next year?

Kim Dang (CEO)

So when you say midstream, are you separating out the gathering and processing from, you know, all the Texas intrastate business, which is also in midstream?

Tristan Richardson (Analyst)

Correct.

Kim Dang (CEO)

Specifically focused on gathering and processing.

Tristan Richardson (Analyst)

Yes.

Kim Dang (CEO)

Do I think that gathering and processing is going to decrease as a percentage of the overall business? I don't know the answer as a percentage of the overall business. What I can tell you is I don't anticipate that gathering and processing, the EBITDA from gathering and processing on the natural gas side, is going down, because, you know, natural gas demand is growing, and we're going to continue to need more natural gas molecules. And our biggest position is in the Haynesville and in the Eagle Ford, and those are two places that are very close to the LNG demand. And as Rich and Sital have both mentioned, you know, Eagle Ford has some gas, has some very nice characteristics in that it has low nitrogen.

So I think that, you know, I think I would continue to expect to see growth in the volumes coming out of those basins.

Sital Mody (VP and President of Natural Gas Pipelines)

Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, the relative comparison, you know, if you secure some of these large projects, you might see a differential in overall percentage. But I think Kim's right. When we look at our gathering and processing systems, you know, Bakken constrained, Eagle Ford approaching full processing capacity, and then the Haynesville, we're trying to keep up. And so I think that trend will continue as we see these LNG facilities come on. And then as far as the proportionate, the relative proportion, it all depends on if we're successful in getting these big LNG feeder projects in or not, because those are obviously material.

Kim Dang (CEO)

So on the Haynesville being constrained, that means there's going to be opportunities for new projects as that volume increases. On the processing capacity being at capacity on processing in the Eagle Ford, you know, there may be opportunities to charge incremental rate there. So just to clarify what Cecil was saying.

Tristan Richardson (Analyst)

Appreciate it. Then quick follow-up, just on the energy transition ventures side, maybe top of the funnel commercial activity you're seeing around RNG and just a sense of overall potential capacity projects out there, particularly as you get past 2024 and Autumn Hills comes online.

Anthony Ashley (VP, President of CO2 and Energy Transition Ventures)

Yeah. Hey, Tristan, it's Anthony. Yeah, so as we look, you know, 2024 and beyond, we do have some additional projects within the North American acquisition, landfill gas to electric projects, which are potential RNG conversion opportunities. And so now we've got a little bit more clarity from the EPA on the D-3 RINs potential. We are now looking at those potential projects again. And we have a few other ones I would say that we're looking at in terms of organic growth potential. But our focus has really been, you know, getting our existing projects up and in service and operating well and going through the RIN generation part, process. But yes, we do have some potential opportunities beyond Autumn Hills.

Kim Dang (CEO)

Yeah. And just on the, on the facilities, I mean, for an update there, you know, two of the three that we're bringing in service this year, are in service. One, we've had a few operational issues we think we've largely worked through. The other one is ramping up, and the third one we expect to be on by the end of the year.

Tristan Richardson (Analyst)

Appreciate the update. Thank you, Kim.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next caller is Neil Dingmann with Truist Securities. You may go ahead.

Neal Dingmann (Managing Director)

... Afternoon, all. You talked a bit about M&A. I guess my question is just perhaps on near-term M&A. I'm just wondering how you all would think about potentially, adding natural gas pipelines, various other assets? I'm just wondering, given your current footprint, is there a preference or, you know, are you sort of agnostic on when looking at various assets?

Kim Dang (CEO)

Yeah, I think that, you know, acquisitions are easy to imagine and hard to do. And so, you know, I think that, it's more, acquisitions are more opportunistic, is what I would say for the most part. And yes, we are always interested in acquisitions and have been since our inception, and we have a pretty disciplined process around looking at it. You know, there are three criteria that are core for us to do an acquisition. One, you know, the asset has to fit our strategy, so it needs to be fee-based, you know, energy infrastructure. Two, you know, it needs to have the right attractive economics around it, which means it needs to be accretive to DCF per share and have an attractive unlevered after-tax return.

And three, you know, it can't be, you know, we prefer that it not be dilutive to our long-term debt metric of 4.5 times debt to EBITDA. And generally, I don't think we would do something that is dilutive to that debt metric. It would have to be something that was very, very special.

Neal Dingmann (Managing Director)

Good. That all makes sense. And then, Kim, I think you mentioned earlier, you mentioned something about the RIN price. I'm just wondering, did you say you saw this increase in, or maybe also, could you speak to the direction of the D-3 RINs?

Kim Dang (CEO)

On the D-3 RINs, they have gone to $3.40 right now, I think. So, you know, they were below $2 before June, when the EPA came out with the new RVOs. Post that, they traded in and around three bucks, and in the last week or so, we've seen them go up to $3.40. And you know, hard to pinpoint exactly what that is, but, you know, think there may be people out there that haven't satisfied their 2022 obligations yet, and that could be driving some of the, the 2023 pricing. So I think, you know, RINs prices right now, look, look pretty good for 2024.

Neal Dingmann (Managing Director)

Yeah, it sounds encouraging. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next caller is Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research.

Keith Stanley (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, good afternoon. Sorry if I missed this, but hey, Kim, any updated comments on the potential to expand Gulf Coast Express and where things are in discussions with customers, and how soon that could move forward?

Kim Dang (CEO)

Yeah. I mean, we continue to have discussions with customers and, you know, which is kind of where we were last quarter at this time. And I think there are people that are interested in that, but we don't have anything to announce yet.

Keith Stanley (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Second question, just on the 2023 commentary of being slightly below plan, it just seems to me like the company was pretty much on budget in the first half of 2023 on the EBITDA line anyway. And Q3, maybe less than $50 million below budget. I mean, are we talking when we're saying slightly below plan, that maybe even like less than 1% below the EBITDA target? It just seems kind of small, with you guys calling it out.

David Michels (VP and CFO)

Yes. Hey, Keith, it's David. Yeah, it's-- that's why we said slightly below. It's not a material amount below. It's disappointing that we are below because we're having really strong performance across a number of categories in our base business. The commodity price impact is less impactful now that we've seen some improvement. But as we go through the year, we put on additional hedges and so forth, so we have less upside as the later part of the year improvement in commodity prices materialize. And we've continued to have some weakness in other parts of the business that offset some of that commodity price improvement. So, you know, net-net, it's unfortunately don't have additional detail for you with regard to a slightly determination.

But yes, it's disappointing that we're still a little bit down, but it's not much.

Keith Stanley (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Gabe Moreen with Mizuho. You may go ahead, sir.

Gabriel Moreen (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Just a quick question on the fixed to floating and then back to fixed hedges, which you've got on some of which are expiring soon. Just wondering how you're thinking about that, with some of the hedges expiring in the near, not-too-distant future for interest expense for next year?

Kim Dang (CEO)

Sure. So, we have about 25% of our debt that floats. For 2023, we locked in about half of that. So our floating rate for 2023 was about 13%. Those hedges that we put on in 2023 expire at the end of 2023. And so you would expect us to go back to 25%. But we do have swaps that roll off in 2023 and swaps that roll off in 2024. Those swaps total $2.75 billion. You know, we have not made a decision yet as to whether we will put swaps on when those expire, or just stay more fixed.

If we just let all those swaps expire, did not put on any new swaps, we would be at 15%-16% floating percentage. You know, our long-term strategy has been to float on a portion of our debt because the forward curve has generally overestimated future floating rates… And so we've made, through last year, we've made $1.2 billion over the last 10 years on those swaps. This year, we gave back about $200 million, so we made about $1 billion. You know, the one exception to that we've seen in the charts to the forward curve over-predicting floating rates has been when you've been in a rate hike cycle.

I think we're going to be flexible as to when we put new swaps back on. So I think there's a reasonable likelihood that we may be at a lower floating percentage than 25% in 2024, and may wait for a period of time to put some new swaps back on. But in the future, in the longer term, we may decide to put some of those swaps back on, but in no event do I think we would go above the 25%.

Gabriel Moreen (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks, Kim. And then maybe if I can follow up with another question around the LNG opportunity and whether Kinder Morgan sees the need to perhaps develop more of a marketing presence outside the intrastates to aggregate supply for some of these pipeline opportunities around LNG, and similarly, whether there's any thought to taking stakes in LNG export facilities yourselves, to sort of marry up that integrated approach?

Tom Martin (President)

Yeah. So, we actually do have a small gas marketing business right now, and not really focused on LNG opportunities exclusively, but really just opportunities across the domestic market, largely off of our assets. You know, we'll see if there's incremental opportunities there. We may consider that as you suggest, but I mean, you know, we don't—I don't see us going into an international market. That really hasn't been our footprint and our strategy. But you know, we'll be open to consider things as opportunities develop, and we'll see where things go from there. As far as around LNG taking space out in an LNG facility, again, you know, there's a lot of capital and a lot of risk related to doing that.

And so we have tended to be more fee for service and provide LNG both capacity, transportation capacity, and as it pertains to Elba Island, you know, export facility for our customers to play in the international markets. And I, and I don't see that changing much, if at all.

Gabriel Moreen (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks, Tom.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next caller is Zack Van Everen with TPH & Co. Please go ahead, sir.

Zack Van Everen (Director of Infrastructure Research)

Perfect. Thanks for taking my question. Just want to go back up to the Bakken after seeing the announcements on the gas side. Have you guys looked into or considered converting the Double H Pipeline to an NGL pipe to help diversify some of the takeaway options up there?

Dax Sanders (President of Products Pipelines)

We have, yeah. We've looked at several different options for repurposing, that being one of them. And this is Dax. We are, you know, we continue to transport crude on the pipe. It's becoming more largely, we've got about 30 a day of residual contracts on that. You know, it's becoming, as those contracts roll, it's becoming more of a basis pipeline, which obviously has an incremental element of risk around it, but that's certainly something we would consider with the right deal.

Zack Van Everen (Director of Infrastructure Research)

Gotcha. And then if you were to convert that, could we assume it's a similar capacity with NGLs? And are there any opportunities to, you know, expand that at all, if you were to go that route?

Dax Sanders (President of Products Pipelines)

It depends on what you put it in, but, you know, ultimately, I think if it's still in liquid service, if you do NGLs, maybe a little bit more capacity with some pump adds, but still early.

Kim Dang (CEO)

Yeah. It's just like anytime we have an underutilized asset, we're looking for other opportunities to utilize that. I think this one's pretty early.

Zack Van Everen (Director of Infrastructure Research)

Okay. Perfect. Thanks, guys.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Sunil Sibal with Seaport Global Securities, you may go ahead.

Sunil Sibal (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Yeah. Hi, good afternoon, everybody. And, apologize if I missed this, but I just wanted to touch upon, you know, what kind of sequential trends you saw in Q3 with regard to your gas gathering volumes in various basins and also on the crude and condensate systems?

Kim Dang (CEO)

Sequential volumes? Hang on just a second. Sequential volumes on gas gathering, they were down 1%, and they were down 1% on crude. So kind of flattish on sequential basis.

Sunil Sibal (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

That's fairly representative across the basins?

Kim Dang (CEO)

They're different basins, and so that is total for Kinder Morgan. So on gas, that would be, you know, the primary basins would be Eagle Ford, Bakken, Haynesville. And some of those were up a little bit, and some were down a little bit. And you net, I mean, minus 1, I'd say that's kind of flattish, but down slightly. And on the crude, it's primarily Bakken.

Sunil Sibal (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Got it. Thanks for that.

Operator (participant)

At this time, I am showing no further questions.

Rich Kinder (Executive Chairman)

Okay. Michelle, thank you very much, and everybody have a good day and a good evening. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may go ahead and disconnect at this time.