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LV

LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP (LVS)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 net revenue was $2.86B (-3.3% YoY) with consolidated adjusted property EBITDA of $1.14B; diluted EPS was $0.49 and adjusted EPS was $0.59 .
  • Marina Bay Sands delivered record adjusted property EBITDA of $605M at a 52.0% margin, while Macao operations generated $535M, modestly impacted by low rolling hold (-$10M) .
  • Board increased remaining share repurchase authorization to $2.0B; LVS repurchased $450M during the quarter and paid a $0.25 dividend .
  • Management underscored Macao competition and base mass softness but expects Londoner ramp and portfolio scale to drive revenue/margin recovery; reiterated confidence in Singapore growth trajectory with upgraded suite product and sustained high-value tourism .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Marina Bay Sands posted record adjusted property EBITDA of $605M and margin of 52.0%, supported by high-value tourism, premium mass strength, and renovated suites; ADR rose to $925 and RevPAR to $884 .
  • Portfolio capital and liquidity remain strong: $3.04B in unrestricted cash and $4.44B of revolver capacity; weighted average borrowing cost declined to 4.9% (vs 5.0% prior year) .
  • Capital returns accelerated: $450M repurchased at $44.59 WAP and authorization increased to $2.0B; dividend of $0.25 declared .
    “Marina Bay Sands continued to deliver outstanding financial and operating performance. Our new suite product and elevated service offerings position us for additional growth as travel and tourism spending in Asia expands.” — CEO Robert G. Goldstein .

What Went Wrong

  • Macao net revenues fell to $1.709B (from $1.811B), with aggregated adjusted property EBITDA down to $535M (from $610M), reflecting lower non-rolling table revenues and competitive pressure; Venetian Macao EBITDA margin fell 540 bps YoY to 35.3% .
  • Effective tax rate rose sharply to 13.4% (vs 2.8% prior year), driven by a 17% statutory rate on Singapore operations; net income fell to $408M (vs $583M prior year) .
  • Company emphasized Macao market growth “softened” and base mass demand lagged; sequential share losses and lower spend per head noted at Venetian; Londoner ramp timing extended (~6–12 months) .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.959 $2.896 $2.862
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$717 $590 $609
Net Income ($USD Millions)$583 $392 $408
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.66 $0.45 $0.49
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$0.73 $0.54 $0.59
Consolidated Adjusted Property EBITDA ($USD Billions)$1.207 $1.108 $1.140
Adjusted Property EBITDA Margin % (Total)40.8% 38.3% 39.8%
Effective Tax Rate %2.8% 15.0% 13.4%

Segment Breakdown (Net Revenues and Adjusted Property EBITDA)

SegmentNet Revenues Q1 2024 ($MM)Net Revenues Q1 2025 ($MM)Adj. Prop. EBITDA Q1 2024 ($MM)Adj. Prop. EBITDA Q1 2025 ($MM)
The Venetian Macao$771 $638 $314 $225
The Londoner Macao$562 $529 $172 $153
The Parisian Macao$230 $227 $71 $66
The Plaza & Four Seasons Macao$142 $208 $36 $74
Sands Macao$76 $75 $12 $10
Ferry Ops & Other$30 $32 $5 $7
Macao Operations Total$1,811 $1,709 $610 $535
Marina Bay Sands$1,158 $1,163 $597 $605

KPIs (Selected)

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025
MBS ADR ($)$713 $925
MBS RevPAR ($)$677 $884
MBS Rolling Chip Win %4.52% 3.70% (updated expectation)
Venetian Macao Non-Rolling Drop ($MM)$2,414 $2,260
Venetian Macao Rolling Chip Win %6.71% 2.18%

Results vs Estimates (S&P Global Consensus)

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD)$2,889.8M*$2,862.0M Miss ~$27.8M (≈1.0%)*
Primary EPS ($USD)$0.5685*$0.59 Beat $0.0215 (≈3.8%)*

Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance/AssumptionCurrent Guidance/AssumptionChange
Rolling Chip Expected Win % (MBS)Ongoing3.30% expectation3.70% expectation (updated due to player preferences over last several years) Raised assumption
Share Repurchase AuthorizationOngoingRemaining $1.10BIncreased to $2.0B authorization Raised
Quarterly DividendMay 14, 2025$0.25/share$0.25/share (declared) Maintained

No formal revenue/EPS/EBITDA forward guidance was provided; management reiterated focus on Londoner ramp, margin expansion, and Marina Bay Sands investment-driven growth .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Macao competitive dynamics & base massRecovery resilient; day-tripper skew; base mass lag; Londoner disruption; strong premium segments “Competitive market…not grown as anticipated”; lower spend per head; sequential share loss; ramp Londoner over ~6–12 months Competitive intensity elevated; base mass still soft; ramp underway
Londoner ramp & portfolio optimizationLondoner Grand phased openings; keys out of service; arena upgrades All 2,405 Londoner Grand rooms/suites now available; expect ramp to drive revenue/EBITDA and margins Positive product cycle; 6–12 month ramp
Singapore growth & marginsDisruption from renovations; ADR rising; IR2 scope includes gaming; premium mass strength Record MBS EBITDA; normalized quarter; mass-driven story; updated rolling theoretical to 3.7% Strengthening; sustained high-value tourism
Capital returns$450M repurchases; dividend to $1.00/year in 2025 (Q3 announcement) $450M repurchased; buyback authorization raised to $2.0B; $0.25 dividend paid Increasing buybacks
New York developmentActively exploring; timing/licensure uncertainties; online gaming concerns Decided not to bid; may transact opportunity to third party; capital best used for repurchases Strategy shift away from NY
Non-gaming programming (arenas/events)Venetian arena upgrade; Londoner arena shows driving traffic Continued emphasis; programming to drive premium mass visitation Ongoing driver

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered $535 million of EBITDA for the quarter in Macao… our objective is to grow our share of EBITDA… we have a unique product advantage in terms of scale, quality and diversity.” — CEO Robert G. Goldstein .
  • “MBS’ EBITDA was $605M at a margin of 52%… we have updated our expectation for hold on rolling play at MBS to 3.7%.” — President & COO Patrick Dumont .
  • “We repurchased $450M of LVS stock… Our Board has increased our share repurchase authorization to $2 billion… we have decided not to bid for a casino license in New York.” — Patrick Dumont .
  • “We’re disappointed by our results… We can do better… Londoner is open… introduces opportunities to maximize that asset and grow again.” — Robert G. Goldstein .

Q&A Highlights

  • Capital allocation and repurchases: Management sees value in both LVS and SCL, targeting higher ownership in SCL and being aggressive on buybacks given valuation .
  • Macao margin/OpEx dynamics: Negative operating leverage from lower non-rolling table revenue and higher payroll with new assets; expect reversal as revenues recover .
  • Premium mass and side bets: Industry trend toward side bets improves hold, with smart tables increasing measurement precision; mass segment is the key MBS outperformer .
  • Londoner ramp timeline and impact: Keys fully online in mid-April; ramp expected over ~12 months; focus on recapturing EBITDA share and revenue growth across portfolio .
  • Capital markets and refinancing: Plan to address $500M LVS bonds in 2025; SCL revolver/term loan provide flexibility for maturities and growth .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue: Actual $2.862B vs S&P Global consensus $2.8898B → miss ≈1.0%*.
  • EPS: Adjusted/diluted EPS actual $0.59 vs S&P Global primary EPS consensus $0.5685 → beat ≈3.8%*.
  • EBITDA: Note that S&P Global “EBITDA” definitions may differ from LVS’s “consolidated adjusted property EBITDA,” which was $1.14B; caution in comparability .

Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Singapore is the near-term engine: Record MBS EBITDA and rising ADR/RevPAR validate investment-driven premium mass thesis; margin durability appears strong .
  • Macao recovery requires base mass: Portfolio scale and Londoner ramp should lift revenues/margins; watch non-rolling tables at Venetian and spend per head normalization .
  • Capital returns are accelerating: $2.0B buyback authorization and disciplined repurchases create support; dividend maintained at $0.25 quarterly .
  • Estimate dynamics: EPS beat vs consensus despite revenue slight miss; future estimate revisions likely reflect MBS margin strength and Londoner ramp cadence*.
  • Hold assumptions updated: MBS rolling theoretical raised to 3.7%; management will continue to disclose illustrative hold impacts—reduces quarter-to-quarter noise .
  • Liquidity and leverage manageable: $3.04B cash and ample revolver capacity underpin capex and returns; borrowing cost modestly lower YoY .
  • Stock reaction catalysts: Buyback scale, sustained Singapore outperformance, and visible Macao ramp milestones (room keys, arena programming) are key near-term drivers .