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    METLIFE (MET)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025
    Pre-Earnings PriceN/ADate unavailable
    Post-Earnings PriceN/ADate unavailable
    Price ChangeN/A
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Group Benefits margins

    Adjusted earnings were $466M, up 19% year-over-year. Favorable life underwriting margins, with a strong performance in voluntary products and solid persistency highlighted. The company expected a higher mortality ratio in early 2024.

    Adjusted earnings were $431M, down 11%. Some pressure in nonmedical health, but pricing actions in dental are expected to drive margins back to target by 2025. Overall sentiment improved on the outlook for recovery.

    Margins remain a key focus, with sentiment shifting from cautious to more optimistic.

    Retirement and Income Solutions

    Adjusted earnings were $421M, up 10%. Spreads compressed further, mainly from rate movements, but pricing stayed healthy. Variable Investment Income (VII) remains a key uncertainty. Overall sentiment was still negative given the slow VII recovery.

    Adjusted earnings were $368M, down 10% on lower recurring interest margins. The expiration of rate caps pressured spread, but management expects stabilization in Q4. Overall sentiment remains cautious due to macro headwinds.

    Sentiment remains negative, though spreads are expected to stabilize going forward.

    FX volatility in Japan

    Not specifically mentioned in Q4 2023.

    FX volatility impacted foreign currency product sales, causing some customers to wait on the sidelines. Year-over-year sales of single-premium FX products declined.

    No longer mentioned.

    Asia growth

    Adjusted earnings reached $296M, up 12% year-over-year, contributing to a 13% full-year sales increase. Mid-single-digit earnings and AUM growth anticipated near term.

    Sales declined 1% on a constant currency basis, driven by a 7% drop in Japan but offset by 10% growth in other Asian markets (e.g., India, China). Adjusted earnings were down 6% overall.

    Growth sentiment improved, with stronger performance noted by year-end.

    Pension Risk Transfer pipeline

    Market remains active and broad-based, with a strong pipeline extending into 2024 and beyond. MetLife sees high levels of activity in the jumbo segment, supported by funding levels and plan derisking trends.

    $5.6B in PRT sales year-to-date, plus $1.5B closed in October. The pipeline remains robust, with many companies looking to fully divest their defined benefit plans within a few years.

    Newly emphasized in Q4; significant near-term growth opportunity.

    Strong capital position

    Ended the year with $5.2B in holding company liquidity and an RBC ratio near 400%. The $19B reinsurance deal will free $3B+ of capital over time, providing greater financial flexibility.

    Returned nearly $1B to shareholders and held $4.5B in holding company liquidity. Emphasized balance sheet strength and disciplined capital deployment.

    Newly highlighted in Q4 as a major future enabler of strategic plans.

    Asbestos claims

    Reserves increased by $76M (after tax), with a higher frequency of severe claims than anticipated. This was tagged as a notable item in Corporate & Other.

    No mention in Q3 2024.

    Newly disclosed in Q4, could pose litigation risk.

    Variable Investment Income

    VII was $63M in Q4, finishing the year at $419M, below the $2B target. Private equity and real estate equity funds contributed almost zero in Q4. Some improvement is expected in later quarters of the following year.

    Remained low due to lagging private equity returns, though real estate funds improved slightly. Management expects modest pickup but remains cautious.

    Continues to be below trend, with a potential rebound in late 2024.

    1. IRR and ROE Outlook
      Q: Do improving IRRs indicate rising ROE?
      A: Management affirmed that the improving internal rates of return (IRRs), particularly from high-return businesses like Group Benefits and Latin America, suggest an upward trend in return on equity (ROE). They noted that the shift in business mix, capital optimization, unit cost improvements, and the runoff of low-ROE MetLife Holdings all contribute to this positive trajectory.

    2. RIS Spreads Outlook
      Q: Will RIS spreads stabilize in 2025?
      A: The company expects Retirement and Income Solutions (RIS) spreads to stabilize in the fourth quarter and potentially into 2025, contingent on the interest rate curve. They noted that after some volatility, spreads are now showing more stability.

    3. Group Benefits Margins
      Q: What's the outlook for group benefits margins?
      A: Despite some one-time unfavorable items totaling about $20 million post-tax in the quarter, management expects group benefits margins, particularly in dental, to return to target levels by 2025. They've been implementing rate increases and can reprice about 80% of the dental business annually.

    4. VII Outlook
      Q: How will variable investment income trend?
      A: Variable investment income (VII) is expected to improve slightly in the fourth quarter but may not reach second-quarter levels. Management cited adjustments to higher rates and market volatility as factors, but performance has been relatively strong, with positive returns in private equity and real estate funds.

    5. Real Estate Outlook
      Q: What's the view on commercial real estate?
      A: Management sees signs of a positive outlook in commercial real estate, noting that fundamentals are healthy and transaction activity is increasing. They reported gains from property sales and believe that non-office sectors may have hit the trough.

    6. Interest Rate Exposure
      Q: How does the yield curve affect you?
      A: A steeper yield curve and higher rates are favorable for the company. They are well matched on floating-rate assets and liabilities, and a lower short end of the curve benefits them.

    7. Risk Transfer Strategy
      Q: Will you pursue long-term care risk transfers?
      A: Management is actively assessing risk transfer options in the long-term care market. They observe increased activity and narrowing bid-ask spreads, but any deal must create long-term shareholder value, with price and structure being critical factors.

    8. Return Enhancement Strategy
      Q: How will you enhance returns?
      A: The company plans to enhance returns by growing high-return businesses and maintaining pricing discipline. They also focus on reducing unit costs, contributing to overall return improvements.

    9. Japan Sales
      Q: Will Japan sales remain weak?
      A: While foreign currency volatility has impacted dollar-denominated product sales in Japan, the company expects full-year sales for Asia to be close to flat year-over-year. They've launched new yen-denominated products to mitigate the impact.

    Research analysts covering METLIFE.