Ma'aden Investment Valuation
Q: How do you view the $1.5 billion valuation of Ma'aden?
A: Management believes the $1.5 billion valuation for their Ma'aden investment is fair and attractive, representing twice their initial investment. " They expect valuation multiples to be consistent with historical levels during their ownership period. "

Ma'aden Hedging Strategy
Q: Can you hedge or lock in Ma'aden's value now?
A: Management acknowledges the importance of protecting the Ma'aden investment and is evaluating options, considering factors like market liquidity, but is not ready to provide specifics. "

Ma'aden Transaction Rationale
Q: Why was this Ma'aden deal the best option?
A: The transaction brings transparency to the investment's value and provides capital flexibility. " It satisfies objectives for both parties, including Ma'aden's desire to consolidate JV ownership. "

Financial Impact of Ma'aden Deal
Q: What's the impact on free cash flow and EBITDA?
A: The transaction will have minimal impact on Mosaic's EBITDA and free cash flow. " Historically, cash distributions from the JV are included, and future equity earnings will continue to be recognized similarly. "

Phosphate Market Tightness
Q: Why is phosphate supply-demand compelling?
A: Phosphate markets are tight due to reduced Chinese exports, down 70% in Q1, reducing supply by 1 million tonnes. " Demand has recovered, and structural changes in China are further tightening agricultural phosphate supply. "

Potash Market Balance
Q: Why isn't potash supply-demand as tight?
A: Potash markets are balanced as Russian and Belarusian production returns to pre-war levels, and new supply from Laos emerges. " Demand growth is expected at 1–2% annually, keeping supply and demand in equilibrium. "

Phosphate Cost Improvements
Q: Are cost trends improving profitability?
A: Yes, lower raw material costs, including ammonia and sulfur, will enhance stripping margins throughout the year. " Despite seasonal price pressures, margins are expected to remain strong at decade-high levels. "

Phosphate Production and Reserves
Q: How sustainable are cost improvements and reserves?
A: Achieving a 2 million-tonne run rate will reduce costs by $20 to $30 per tonne. " Rock costs will improve, and Mosaic has 30–40 years of phosphate rock reserves in Florida, supporting long-term cost benefits. "

Impact of Turnarounds on Supply
Q: Do turnarounds affect supply and prices?
A: Turnarounds are necessary maintenance but do not significantly influence market prices. " Increased production will meet demand without materially impacting market tightness. "

Phosphate Import Duties
Q: How do duty changes affect Mosaic and consumers?
A: Duties level the playing field and eliminate unfair subsidies, leading to a healthier industry and more competition for U.S. farmers. "

Potash Sales and Contracts
Q: Breakdown of potash sales and contract assumptions?
A: Potash sales are 45% domestic and 55% offshore. " The India contract is expected to settle soon due to strong demand and low inventories; China is likely to settle later in Q2. "

Fertilizer Price Expectations
Q: Will you be disappointed if prices don't rise in H2?
A: Management includes expected contract prices in forecasts and believes fundamentals support higher prices in the second half. " They would be surprised if prices do not reflect these market fundamentals. "

Fertilizantes EBITDA Outlook
Q: Where can Fertilizantes EBITDA get to in coming years?
A: Management sees EBITDA improving through increased distribution volumes at $30 to $40 margins, cost reductions of $20 to $30 million, and growth from biosciences starting in 2025. "