af85f62d817abde5162a1328290f67fda8749381c91b24ae6b9c78baf85e85a9

Adjustments for Non-Cash Items

Stock-Based Compensation

Changes in Working Capital

Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

Proceeds from / Repayments of Debt

Share Repurchases

Dividend Payments

Net Change in Cash

e9d221e3c361869787877916c2489263c3c59d6303241945f7ac56c1d6a5835f

8f1d9a92141efc860e1979d06de55314b3a0c4870921ca38003ff8627404b086

| Metric (USD Million) | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 |
|----------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| Brazil               | **1,300.6**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**  | **1,367.3**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**  | **1,659.3**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**  | N/A     | **852.8**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**  | **1,037.9**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**  | **1,350.8**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**  | N/A     |
| Canpotex             | **431.3**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**  | **300.8**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**  | **209.9**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**  | N/A     | **220.8**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**  | **222.0**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**  | **217.3**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**  | N/A     |
| Canada               | **81.1**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**   | **134.8**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**  | **58.8**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**   | N/A     | **142.0**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**  | **147.2**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**  | **68.2**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**   | N/A     |
| China                | **145.4**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**  | **89.4**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**   | **123.8**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**  | N/A     | **124.0**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**  | **112.8**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**  | **149.7**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**  | N/A     |
| India                | **121.4**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**  | **89.5**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**   | **80.3**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**   | N/A     | **7.2**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**    | **12.0**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**   | **31.3**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**   | N/A     |
| Paraguay             | **45.6**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**   | **51.2**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**   | **80.2**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**   | N/A     | **36.9**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**   | **45.0**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**   | **58.1**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**   | N/A     |
| Argentina            | **18.9**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**   | **24.2**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**   | **27.2**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**   | N/A     | **11.2**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**   | **30.3**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**   | **28.4**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**   | N/A     |
| Japan                | **38.5**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**   | **59.5**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**   | **33.1**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**   | N/A     | **41.3**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**   | **28.1**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**   | **33.7**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**   | N/A     |
| Colombia             | **39.0**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**   | **23.4**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**   | **16.8**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**   | N/A     | **32.6**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**   | **26.0**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**   | **23.8**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**   | N/A     |
| Australia            | **20.3**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**   | **7.1**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**    | **20.4**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**   | N/A     | **16.9**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**   | N/A         | **21.1**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**   | N/A     |
| Peru                 | **6.7**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**    | **15.3**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**   | **30.2**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**   | N/A     | **11.6**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**   | **7.4**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**    | **20.2**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**   | N/A     |
| Mexico               | **77.7**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**   | **13.4**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**   | **27.7**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**   | N/A     | **22.4**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**   | **7.2**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**    | **9.8**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**    | N/A     |
| Honduras             | **8.0**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**    | **12.3**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**   | **4.9**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**    | N/A     | **5.0**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**    | **8.7**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**    | **7.7**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**    | N/A     |
| Dominican Republic   | N/A        | **8.0**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**    | **2.0**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**    | N/A     | N/A        | **4.0**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**    | **6.2**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**    | N/A     |
| Other                | **21.1**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**   | **17.9**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**   | **18.8**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**   | N/A     | **10.5**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**   | **13.2**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**   | **30.9**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**   | N/A     |
| Total International  | **2,355.6**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**  | N/A       | **2,393.4**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**  | N/A   | **1,535.2**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**  | N/A       | **2,057.2**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**  | N/A     |
| United States        | **1,248.7**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**  | **1,179.9**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**  | **1,154.9**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**  | N/A | **1,144.2**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**  | **1,114.8**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**  | **753.7**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**  | N/A     |
| Consolidated Total   | **3,604.3**  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:27]**  | **3,394.0**  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:30]**  | **3,548.3**  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**  | **3,149**  **[0002004032-24-000003_performancedataq42023-ex992.htm:1]**  | **2,679.4**  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**  | **2,816.6**  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:28]**  | **2,810.9**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]**  | N/A     |

0686cb4465c8d9ae755f2c638070463a31016de073883af9a4a0fdb5798ca6de

**Average Finished Product Selling Price (USD/Tonne)**

**Brazil MAP Price (USD/Metric Tonne)**

**Average Cost per Unit Consumed (Ammonia) (USD)**

**Production Volume (Phosphate) (Thousand Metric Tonnes)**

**Potash Operating Rate (%)**

**Average Potash Selling Price (MOP fob mine) (USD/Tonne)**

**Average Potash Selling Price (Finished Product) (USD/Tonne)**

**Phosphate Operating Rate (%)**

**Brazilian Phosphate Rock Production (Thousand Tonnes)**

d917169178acbc3a0d862e42378a2b2bd63f8602735f19960788aba1c7c846b6

3852ffd186d0b501d5c122306eb23bf98d437672f9897911437e6763293bc771

The Mosaic Company is a leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, serving customers in approximately 40 countries **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:3]**. The company operates through three main business segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes, producing and selling crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and industrial products **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:3]** **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:134]** **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:186]**. Mosaic accounts for approximately 12% of global annual phosphate production and 13% of global annual potash production **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:3]**.

1. **Potash** - Operates mines and production facilities in Canada and the U.S., producing potash-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and industrial products. Sells Canadian potash outside the U.S. and Canada through Canpotex **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:3]** **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:134]** **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:186]**.
2. **Phosphates** - Includes mines and production facilities in Florida and Louisiana, a 75% interest in the Miski Mayo Phosphate Mine in Peru, and a 25% interest in the Ma’aden Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company in Saudi Arabia. Produces phosphate crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:3]** **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:134]** **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:186]**.
3. **Mosaic Fertilizantes** - Primarily operates in Brazil, including five phosphate rock mines, four chemical plants, and a potash mine, along with distribution operations in South America **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:3]** **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:134]** **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:6]** **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:186]**.
4. **Crop Nutrient Blends** - Offers a variety of blended crop nutrient products tailored to specific agricultural needs **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:232]**.
5. **Performance Products** - Provides specialized products designed to enhance agricultural productivity and efficiency **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:232]**.

3df2f48184dccbc8dddc719caf20234df08bed06c0d0d62f958cab7d72ed7e45

| Metric (USD Million) | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 |
|----------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| Phosphate            | 1,310  **[0001243786-23-000008_performancedataq42022-ex992.htm:3]**  | 1,088.9  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:26]**  | 964.0  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:29]**  | 986.4  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:28]**  | 1,070  **[0002004032-24-000003_performancedataq42023-ex992.htm:3]**  | 1,168.7  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**  | 989.2  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:27]**  | 1,005.3  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:27]**  |
| Potash               | 1,136  **[0001243786-23-000008_performancedataq42022-ex992.htm:3]**  | 900.4  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:26]**  | 835.9  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:29]**  | 719.9  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:28]**  | 1,192  **[0002004032-24-000003_performancedataq42023-ex992.htm:5]**  | 643.1  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**  | 655.1  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:27]**  | 525.7  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:27]**  |
| Mosaic Fertilizantes | 1,910  **[0001243786-23-000008_performancedataq42022-ex992.htm:3]**  | 1,343.3  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:26]**  | 1,418.8  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:29]**  | 1,730.6  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:28]**  | 758  **[0002004032-24-000003_performancedataq42023-ex992.htm:4]**  | 886.4  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**  | 1,048.9  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:27]**  | 1,399.2  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:27]**  |
| Corporate, Eliminations and Other | 125  **[0001243786-23-000008_performancedataq42022-ex992.htm:1]**  | 271.7  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:26]**  | 175.3  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:29]**  | 111.4  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:28]**  | N/A | (18.8)  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**  | 123.4  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:27]**  | (119.3)  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:27]**  |
| Total Net Sales      | N/A     | 3,604.3  **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:26]**  | 3,394.0  **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:29]**  | 3,548.3  **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:28]**  | N/A     | 2,679.4  **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:26]**  | 2,816.6  **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:27]**  | 2,810.9  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:27]**  |

a8d105e2e09dd049979dd1e854fe3840e57e0c3d74a7793bf405348857701d03

| Metric/Quarter | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 |
|----------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| **Average Finished Product Selling Price (USD/Tonne)** | $610 **[0001243786-23-000008_performancedataq42022-ex992.htm:4]** | $717 **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:32]** | $634 **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:36]** | $569 **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:35]** | $658 **[0002004032-24-000008_performancedataq12024-ex992.htm:4]** | $677 **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:32]** | $667 **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:34]** | $651 **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:33]** |
| **Brazil MAP Price (USD/Metric Tonne)** | $663 **[0001243786-23-000008_performancedataq42022-ex992.htm:5]** | $669 **[0001243786-23-000152_performancedataq32023-ex992.htm:6]** | $653 **[0001243786-23-000152_performancedataq32023-ex992.htm:6]** | $533 **[0001243786-23-000152_performancedataq32023-ex992.htm:6]** | $580 **[0002004032-24-000003_performancedataq42023-ex992.htm:5]** | $581 **[0002004032-24-000008_performancedataq12024-ex992.htm:6]** | $596 **[0001628280-24-046819_performancedataq32024-ex992.htm:5]** | $601 **[0001628280-24-046819_performancedataq32024-ex992.htm:5]** |
| **Average Cost per Unit Consumed (Ammonia) (USD)** | $653 **[0001243786-23-000008_performancedataq42022-ex992.htm:3]** | $605 **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:32]** | $441 **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:36]** | $353 **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:35]** | N/A | $404 **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:32]** | $623 **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:40]** | $482 **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:33]** |
| **Production Volume (Phosphate) (Thousand Metric Tonnes)** | 1,602 **[0001243786-23-000066_performancedataq12023-ex992.htm:3]** | 1,836 **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:32]** | 1,660 **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:36]** | 1,593 **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:35]** | 1,479 **[0002004032-24-000008_performancedataq12024-ex992.htm:4]** | 1,577 **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:32]** | 1,675 **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:34]** | 1,625 **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:33]** |
| **Potash Operating Rate (%)** | 80% **[0001243786-23-000008_performancedataq42022-ex992.htm:5]** | 69% **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:34]** | 69% **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:40]** | 66% **[0001243786-23-000152_performancedataq32023-ex992.htm:5]** | 60% **[0002004032-24-000003_performancedataq42023-ex992.htm:3]** | 81% **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:35]** | 78% **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:38]** | 66% **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:37]** |
| **Average Potash Selling Price (MOP fob mine) (USD/Tonne)** | $581 **[0001243786-23-000008_pressreleaseq42022-ex991.htm:3]** | $421 **[0001618034-23-000008_mos-20230331.htm:34]** | N/A | N/A | $243 **[0002004032-24-000003_pressreleaseq42023-ex991.htm:1]** | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| **Average Potash Selling Price (Finished Product) (USD/Tonne)** | N/A | N/A | $392 **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:39]** | $324 **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:38]** | N/A | $297 **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:34]** | $283 **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:37]** | $263 **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:36]** |
| **Phosphate Operating Rate (%)** | 87% **[0001243786-23-000008_performancedataq42022-ex992.htm:5]** | 78% **[0001243786-23-000066_performancedataq12023-ex992.htm:5]** | 74% **[0001243786-23-000152_performancedataq32023-ex992.htm:6]** | 81% **[0001243786-23-000152_performancedataq32023-ex992.htm:6]** | 77% **[0002004032-24-000008_performancedataq12024-ex992.htm:6]** | 79% **[0002004032-24-000008_performancedataq12024-ex992.htm:6]** | 68% **[0001243786-24-000045_performancedataq22024-ex992.htm:3]** | 78% **[0001628280-24-046819_performancedataq32024-ex992.htm:5]** |
| **Brazilian Phosphate Rock Production (Thousand Tonnes)** | N/A | N/A | 1,100 **[0001618034-23-000015_mos-20230630.htm:43]** | 2,900 **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:43]** | N/A | 324 **[0001618034-24-000006_mos-20240331.htm:36]** | 1,000 **[0001618034-24-000013_mos-20240630.htm:41]** | 1,000 **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:40]** |

9a1349bcc8aa8033fce0397168bae1a746f2acd427308ceed2b6e1ae57b979f8

1. Given the repeated operational challenges due to hurricanes and electrical issues affecting your phosphate production, how confident are you in achieving the annualized run rate of **7.8 to 8.2 million tons** by year-end, and what specific measures are you implementing to mitigate future weather-related disruptions?

2. With the recent improvement in Brazilian farmer economics and activity, how sustainable do you believe this recovery is considering the past headwinds from commodity prices and credit constraints, and what strategies are you employing to mitigate ongoing credit risks in this key market?

3. Despite supply from Russia and Belarus returning to pre-war levels, you mentioned that potash prices have likely hit bottom and are beginning to trend higher. What gives you confidence in a price recovery, and how would prolonged low potash prices impact your financial performance and strategic plans?

4. You've initiated a strategic review of your Carlsbad New Mexico potash mine and are converting your MWSPC joint venture into Ma'aden's shares valued at **$1.5 to $1.6 billion**. Can you elaborate on your capital allocation priorities, and how do these actions align with your long-term growth strategy, especially in light of recent operational challenges and the need for cost reductions?

5. Mosaic Biosciences is highlighted as a rapidly growing segment, covering **9 million acres** and positioned as a future growth engine. Could you provide more details on its current revenue contribution and profitability, and what level of investment is required to scale this business meaningfully within your overall operations?

4b9dc437f524b71ff28531d2cf7266d2bade2af236fdd1d4dc008a19d797bb58

e6da9f1a1cdd310d1f0ca410587b8ed428e46d251d4e6ed373d9fb9176f7ea24

### Q3 2024 Earnings Call
- **Issued Period**: Q3 2024
- **Guided Period**: Q4 2024
- **Guidance**:
  1. **Potash Segment**:
     - Sales Volumes: **2.2 million to 2.4 million tons**
     - Prices: **$200 to $220 per ton**  **[MOS_3407852_3]** .
  2. **Phosphates Segment**:
     - Sales Volumes: **1.6 million to 1.8 million tons**
     - Prices: **$570 to $590 per ton**  **[MOS_3407852_3]** .
  3. **Phosphate Production Run Rate**: **7.8 million to 8.2 million tons** by year-end  **[MOS_3407852_1]** .
  4. **Cost Management**: **$150 million annual run rate cost savings target** by the end of 2025  **[MOS_3407852_1]** .
  5. **Capital Expenditures**: **$200 million reduction in CapEx** for the year  **[MOS_3407852_1]** .
  6. **Mosaic Biosciences**: Biological products used on **9 million acres**  **[MOS_3407852_1]** .

### Q2 2024 Earnings Call
- **Issued Period**: Q2 2024
- **Guided Period**: FY 2024
- **Guidance**:
  1. **Phosphate Production**: **7.8 million to 8.2 million tons** annual production  **[MOS_3397162_2]** **[MOS_3397162_10]** .
  2. **Cost Reductions**: **$150 million expense reduction** and **$200 million reduction in capital expenditure**  **[MOS_3397162_2]** **[MOS_3397162_13]** .
  3. **Distribution Margins**: **$30 to $40 per ton** in Brazil  **[MOS_3397162_5]** **[MOS_3397162_17]** .
  4. **Fertilizer Shipments**: Phosphate **73 million to 76 million tons**, Potash **70 million to 73 million tons**  **[MOS_3397162_15]** .
  5. **Cost Savings**: **$20 to $30 per ton conversion cost savings**  **[MOS_3397162_4]** **[MOS_3397162_10]** .
  6. **Brazil Operations**: Strong performance and EBITDA contribution  **[MOS_3397162_24]** **[MOS_3397162_17]** .

### Q1 2024 Earnings Call
- **Issued Period**: Q1 2024
- **Guided Period**: Q2 2024
- **Guidance**:
  1. **Phosphate Sales Volumes**: **1.6 million to 1.8 million tonnes**  **[MOS_3382329_3]** .
  2. **Phosphate Average FOB Prices**: **$530 to $580 per tonne**  **[MOS_3382329_3]** .
  3. **Potash Sales Volumes**: **2.2 million to 2.4 million tonnes**  **[MOS_3382329_3]** .
  4. **Potash Average FOB Prices**: **$210 to $250 per tonne**  **[MOS_3382329_3]** .
  5. **Distribution Margin**: **$30 to $40 per tonne**  **[MOS_3382329_3]** .
  6. **Mosaic Fertilizantes**: Improved sales volumes and profitability  **[MOS_3382329_3]** .

### Q4 2023 Earnings Call
- **Issued Period**: Q4 2023
- **Guided Period**: Q1 2024
- **Guidance**:
  1. **Potash Sales Volumes**: **2 million to 2.2 million tonnes**  **[MOS_3374705_2]** .
  2. **Potash Prices**: **$225 to $250 per tonne**  **[MOS_3374705_2]** .
  3. **Phosphate Sales Volumes**: **1.6 million to 1.8 million tonnes**  **[MOS_3374705_2]** .
  4. **DAP-Realized Prices**: **$580 to $605 per tonne**  **[MOS_3374705_2]** .
  5. **Distribution Business Margins**: **$30 to $40 per tonne**  **[MOS_3374705_2]** .
  6. **Capital Spending**: **$200 million reduction**  **[MOS_3374705_3]** .
  7. **Cost Savings**: **$150 million annual run rate savings**  **[MOS_3374705_3]** .

94aefa1a3ad67821111fd9156aee8c87a87cabbd3db3bc95914bb5a5dc21cbfa

1157505678ad3d753b04c4886deee954db0ff2018efbff81af17360bf0fe9802

| Name                  | Position                                             | Start Date          | Short Bio                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   |
|-----------------------|------------------------------------------------------|---------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Philip E. Bauer       | Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary | January 2023        | Philip E. Bauer has been with Mosaic since 2007, managing legal support for various business activities. He was promoted to his current position in January 2023. Before joining Mosaic, he was a partner at an international law firm  **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:25]** **[0001618034-23-000003_mos-20221231.htm:27]** .                                                                                                               |
| Bruce M. Bodine Jr.   | Chief Executive Officer, President, and Director     | January 2024 (CEO)  | Bruce M. Bodine Jr. was appointed CEO in January 2024 and President in August 2023. He has been a Director since 2023 and has extensive experience in the mining industry, having been with Mosaic since its formation in 2004  **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:25]** **[0002001901-24-000039_mos-20240421.htm:12]** .                                                                                                                      |
| Clint C. Freeland     | Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer | November 2023       | Clint C. Freeland joined Mosaic as Senior Vice President and CFO in June 2018 and was promoted to Executive Vice President and CFO in November 2023. He will resign from this position on December 31, 2024, and continue as a Senior Advisor until his retirement in July 2025  **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:25]** **[0001618034-23-000003_mos-20221231.htm:28]** **[0001628280-24-047321_mos-20241108.htm:1]** **[0001628280-24-046819_pressreleaseq32024-ex991.htm:0]** .                                                               |
| Walter F. Precourt III| Senior Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer| November 2023       | Walter F. Precourt III joined Mosaic in 2009 and has held various leadership positions. He was elected to his current role in November 2023, overseeing Human Resources, Public Affairs, Procurement, and Shared Services  **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:26]** **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:25]** .                                                                                                                           |
| Corrine D. Ricard     | Senior Vice President - Digital Strategy             | January 2024        | Corrine D. Ricard has held various leadership roles at Mosaic and was elected as Senior Vice President - Digital Strategy in January 2024. She transitioned to Senior Advisor on October 1, 2024, and is expected to retire at the end of 2024  **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:27]** **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:25]** **[0002002698-24-000457_xsl144X01/primary_doc.xml:1]** .                                                                                                   |
| Karen A. Swager       | Executive Vice President - Operations                | November 2023       | Karen A. Swager was elected as Executive Vice President - Operations in November 2023. She is responsible for enterprise-wide operations, including EHS and the North America Supply Chain organization. She has held various leadership positions at Mosaic  **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:27]** **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:25]** .                                                                                         |
| Yijun ("Jenny") Wang  | Executive Vice President - Commercial                | January 2024        | Yijun ("Jenny") Wang was elected as Executive Vice President - Commercial in January 2024. She has held several strategic marketing roles at Mosaic and serves on the Board of Directors of Canpotex Limited  **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:27]** **[0001618034-23-000003_mos-20221231.htm:30]** .                                                                                                                                         |
| Luciano Siani Pires   | Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer | January 1, 2025     | Luciano Siani Pires will assume the role of Executive Vice President and CFO on January 1, 2025. He joined Mosaic as CFO Designate on November 18, 2024, and has previously held leadership positions at Vale S.A. He served on Mosaic's Board of Directors from 2018 to 2022  **[0001628280-24-047321_mos-20241108.htm:1]** **[0001628280-24-047321_mos-20241108.htm:2]** .                                                                         |

521e3f417a52cff6036638ad23baef19386500849271f71fadf8c00b0ab757a5

| Program Details          | Program 1               | Program 2               |
|--------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------------|
| Approval Date            | Second quarter of 2022  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:60]**  | July 31, 2022  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:60]**        |
| End Date/Duration        | Completed by July 31, 2022  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:60]**  | No set expiration date  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:60]**  |
| Total additional amount  | **$1.0 billion**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:60]**     | **$2.0 billion**  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:60]**     |
| Remaining authorization  | **$0** (completed)  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:60]**   | **$957,429,576** as of September 30, 2024  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:60]**  |
| Details                  | Completed  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:60]**            | Ongoing, various methods  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:60]**  |

dd9d3eb6350488cb903c8b832f7e08565a999cfc9de84710130dd5b886af36b5

c23de4649145cfcbb42f27be6bb0fcf8f776ca1a632a2f6e1460bf1803b863d9

**Quarterly guidance for Q4 2024:**
- **Potash Segment Sales Volumes**: 2.2 million to 2.4 million tons  **[MOS_3407852_3]**  (no prior guidance)
- **Potash Segment Prices**: $200 to $220 per ton  **[MOS_3407852_3]**  (no prior guidance)
- **Phosphates Segment Sales Volumes**: 1.6 million to 1.8 million tons  **[MOS_3407852_3]**  (no prior guidance)
- **Phosphates Segment Prices**: $570 to $590 per ton  **[MOS_3407852_3]**  (no prior guidance)

**Annual guidance:**
- **Phosphate Production Run Rate**: 7.8 million to 8.2 million tons by year-end  **[MOS_3407852_1]**  (no change from prior guidance  **[MOS_3397162_2]** **[MOS_3397162_10]** )
- **Cost Management**: $150 million annual run rate cost savings target by the end of 2025  **[MOS_3407852_1]**  (no change from prior guidance  **[MOS_3397162_2]** **[MOS_3397162_13]** )
- **Capital Expenditures**: $200 million reduction in CapEx for the year  **[MOS_3407852_1]**  (no change from prior guidance  **[MOS_3397162_2]** **[MOS_3397162_13]** )
- **Mosaic Biosciences**: Biological products used on 9 million acres  **[MOS_3407852_1]**  (no prior guidance)

9211fdb4651535447f0d07d48e924060fa18fb4831f35a1ceacc9bbe5217a781

| Name       | Start Date | End Date | Reason for Change |
|------------|------------|----------|-------------------|
| KPMG LLP   | 2004       | Present  | Current auditor   |  **[0001618034-24-000004_mos-20231231.htm:180]**  |

520f5a4dfb0d5d921a50c688aea92448cf84e76c7a01a20b35a4821e1d11377f

23794d91c53ae875c8e247d72561e35d9d06ee07c70c9e0dbcc977a6d161504a

- Total Revenue: $2,810.9 million (**-21% YoY**)  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:27]** **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:28]** **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**   
- Potash Segment: $525.7 million (**-27% YoY**)  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:27]** **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:28]**   
- Mosaic Fertilizantes: $1,399.2 million (-19% YoY)  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:27]** **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:28]**   
- United States Revenue: $753.7 million (**-35% YoY**)  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]** **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**   
- Brazil Revenue: $1,350.8 million (-19% YoY)  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]** **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**   
- China Revenue: $149.7 million (+21% YoY)  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:28]** **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:29]**   
- Net Income: $122.2 million (up from -$4.2 million YoY)  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:2]** **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:2]**   
- EPS (Diluted): $0.38 (up from -$0.01 YoY)  **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:2]** **[0001618034-23-000019_mos-20230930.htm:2]**   

8663bbfae81c630180320dd6b35bc6e3ede886956a7cae790271b3782c6c51a6

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43eacae02e4a6f51474ef11b97805c80d42db5dca3924ff27eaf630876e4ec0f

| Year  | Amount Due (Millions) | Debt Type                     | Interest Rate (%)          | % of Total Debt                     |
|-------|------------------------|-------------------------------|----------------------------|--------------------------------------|
| 2024  | 751.7                 | Short-term debt              | N/A                        | 18.5% = (751.7 / 4064.4) * 100 **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:3]** **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:3]** |
| 2024  | 115.3                 | Current maturities of long-term debt | N/A                        | 2.8% = (115.3 / 4064.4) * 100 **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:3]** **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:3]** |
| 2033  | 500.0                 | 10-year senior unsecured term loan | Variable (SOFR + spread)  | 12.3% = (500.0 / 4064.4) * 100 **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:14]** **[0001618034-24-000019_mos-20240930.htm:3]** |

1a3beb1041ac16da8e1796f4221a2fc0d7f78cf773fe4fff8284f194a621d393

1. **Phosphate Cycle Risks and LFP Demand**  
   **Q:** What could disrupt the phosphate cycle? LFP demand in DAP terms by 2030?  
   **A:** Management doesn't see significant new phosphate capacity coming on, so they remain optimistic about prices.  **[MOS_3397162_14]**  On LFP demand, global EV battery adoption for LFP is expected to be **35% to 55%**, with energy storage being a major driver.  **[MOS_3397162_14]** 

2. **Potash Market Fundamentals and Pricing**  
   **Q:** Are global potash inventories normalized? Why are prices same as 2019 despite sanctions?  
   **A:** Sanctioned potash supply from Russia and Belarus has found ways to market, shifting trade flows. Supply has returned to pre-sanction levels, and demand is robust, which explains current pricing.  **[MOS_3397162_19]** 

3. **Phosphate Margins and Ammonia Costs**  
   **Q:** What's the gap between realized and stripping margins? Why did ammonia costs rise?  
   **A:** Realized margins are higher than benchmarks due to lower ammonia costs.  **[MOS_3397162_22]**  Ammonia costs rose in Q2 because earlier spot purchases from Q1, when the ammonia plant was down, flowed into inventory.  **[MOS_3397162_22]** 

4. **Investor Engagement and Market Dynamics**  
   **Q:** What needs to be done to reengage investors?  
   **A:** Management believes execution is key. They need to deliver on their strategy and demonstrate progress, especially in achieving an **8 million ton** run rate. They also think concerns about Chinese exports are overstated.  **[MOS_3397162_23]** 

5. **Phosphate Conversion Costs**  
   **Q:** Expected range for phosphate conversion costs as volumes increase?  
   **A:** As volumes improve, they expect costs to decrease by **$20** per ton from current levels. It's unlikely to return to previous **$65-$70** per ton due to inflation.  **[MOS_3397162_26]** 

6. **Brazilian Fertilizantes Business Outlook**  
   **Q:** Update on volumes and margins in Brazil; are Q3 margins similar to Q2?  
   **A:** Margins are expected to stay steady at **$30-$40** per ton.  **[MOS_3397162_17]**  Demand is strong in Q3, and they've sold everything for the quarter.  **[MOS_3397162_17]** 

7. **Fertilizantes Second Half Outlook**  
   **Q:** Factors that could boost Fertilizantes margins? Preview for Q4 profitability?  
   **A:** They're optimistic about the second half; margins expected to remain in the **$30-$40** range. Q3 is solid; Q4 depends on market dynamics and possible volume shifts.  **[MOS_3397162_24]** 

8. **Safety Incident and Phosphate Production Outlook**  
   **Q:** Elaborate on safety and maintenance; can you reach 2 million tons per quarter in Q4?  
   **A:** They addressed a serious safety incident. They're optimistic about ramping up phosphate production to historical run rates by Q4.  **[MOS_3397162_18]** 

9. **Industry Shipments Outlook**  
   **Q:** Update on 2024 industry shipment projections for potash and phosphate.  
   **A:** Phosphate shipments are projected at **73-76 million tons**; potash at **70-73 million tons**, with potash projections slightly up due to strong Asian markets.  **[MOS_3397162_15]** 

10. **Esterhazy Turnaround and Colonsay Operations**  
    **Q:** How long will Esterhazy be down? Impact on costs with running Colonsay?  
    **A:** Esterhazy will be down for about **a month**; Colonsay will operate to offset lost production, potentially increasing costs due to its higher cost structure.  **[MOS_3397162_21]** 

11. **Biologicals Business Model**  
    **Q:** How are you selling biologicals? Do they reduce P&K application rates?  
    **A:** They're selling biologics through existing channels, often coated on fertilizer granules. Products like PowerCoat enhance yields without reducing P&K application rates.  **[MOS_3397162_20]** 

12. **Countervailing Duties (CVD) Update**  
    **Q:** Update on the CVD situation in the U.S.  
    **A:** The ITC still has appeals and rulings pending. The Department of Commerce released preliminary rate adjustments; final numbers are expected in November.  **[MOS_3397162_16]** 

13. **Phosphate and Potash Price Gap**  
    **Q:** Will the price gap between P and K narrow?  
    **A:** They don't expect significant changes; the price divergence reflects different supply and demand fundamentals.  **[MOS_3397162_25]** 

14. **Colonsay Operations and Potash Strategy**  
    **Q:** Will you keep Colonsay on standby? What's the rationale for supply flexibility?  
    **A:** Keeping Colonsay as a flexible option provides significant upside. It offsets Esterhazy downtime; future operations will be assessed based on market needs and shareholder value.  **[MOS_3397162_27]** 

2512cf7dbea186306ab2f4931941291788cb405c916c003478149e108548ecd9

1. **Phosphate Margins Outlook**  
   **Q:** Will phosphate margins improve in Q1 compared to Q4?  
   **A:** Management expects phosphate margins to remain strong due to tight supply and high demand.  **[MOS_3374705_10]**  Although pricing may fluctuate seasonally, realized stripping margins should stay relatively flat and strong throughout the year.  **[MOS_3374705_10]**  Turnaround costs may limit margin expansion in the short term.  **[MOS_3374705_16]** 

2. **Potash Demand Recovery**  
   **Q:** What is the outlook for potash demand and pricing in 2024?  
   **A:** Management is optimistic about potash demand recovery, anticipating a strong rebound in global demand as farmers replenish depleted soil nutrients  **[MOS_3374705_8]** ,.  **[MOS_3374705_9]**  They expect shipments at or near record levels, with particular growth in smaller markets in Asia and Latin America  **[MOS_3374705_8]** ,.  **[MOS_3374705_9]** 

3. **Phosphate Production Ramp-Up**  
   **Q:** When will phosphate production reach 8 million tonnes, and what are the expected cost impacts?  
   **A:** Mosaic plans to ramp up phosphate production to an annual run rate of 8 million tonnes by the end of the year.  **[MOS_3374705_13]**  This increase is expected to reduce per-unit costs by about **$20 to $25 per tonne**.  **[MOS_3374705_13]**  Turnarounds and maintenance activities in the first half may affect the timing.  **[MOS_3374705_13]** 

4. **Colonsay Mine Curtailment**  
   **Q:** Under what conditions will Mosaic restart the Colonsay mine?  
   **A:** The Colonsay mine was curtailed due to adequate potash supply and economic considerations.  **[MOS_3374705_9]**  Mosaic can quickly restore production when market demand returns and shareholder value is justified.  **[MOS_3374705_9]**  The decision will consider market dynamics and network flexibility.  **[MOS_3374705_9]** 

5. **Impact of Phosphate Prices on Demand**  
   **Q:** Will high phosphate prices lead farmers to cut back on usage?  
   **A:** Management does not anticipate demand destruction due to pricing.  **[MOS_3374705_12]**  Fertilizer affordability remains reasonable as lower potash and moderate nitrogen prices offset higher phosphate costs.  **[MOS_3374705_12]**  Strong agricultural commodity prices support nutrient application.  **[MOS_3374705_12]** 

6. **Relationship with Ma'aden JV**  
   **Q:** Does Mosaic plan to invest further in the Ma'aden joint venture?  
   **A:** While the Ma'aden JV remains important, further investment is not a priority at this time.  **[MOS_3374705_14]**  The JV has paid down about **$1.5 billion** in debt, and cash distributions are expected to increase as debt levels decline.  **[MOS_3374705_14]** 

7. **Working Capital Outlook**  
   **Q:** What is the working capital expectation for 2024?  
   **A:** Working capital levels will depend on the price environment.  **[MOS_3374705_15]**  Mosaic aims to manage working capital by focusing on inventory turns and utilizing funding alternatives like inventory lines and receivable securitization.  **[MOS_3374705_15]** 

8. **Phosphate Imports from Morocco**  
   **Q:** What is the expectation for phosphate supply from Morocco and imports into the U.S.?  
   **A:** Management expects OCP's phosphate fertilizer exports to remain at normal levels with possible small increases in granulation capacity.  **[MOS_3374705_11]**  Global phosphate supply will stay tight in 2024.  **[MOS_3374705_11]** 

9. **Sequential Gross Margin Comparison**  
   **Q:** How do Q1 phosphate gross margins compare to Q4?  
   **A:** Phosphate gross margins are expected to improve slightly due to higher pricing, but turnaround costs may limit the extent of margin expansion.  **[MOS_3374705_16]**  Mosaic benefits from in-house ammonia production, providing cost advantages.  **[MOS_3374705_16]** 

e7cde245d354dd921d5799d957c82ceac4edd767ad7ae21d7145c0a123033e77

- **Mosaic faced operational challenges, including electrical issues at the Esterhazy and Colonsay potash mines, resulting in production losses and uncertainties in meeting production targets.**  **[MOS_3407852_3]**
- **The company recorded a $32 million bad debt reserve due to a Brazilian customer's bankruptcy filing, negatively impacting EBITDA and highlighting increased credit risks in the region.**  **[MOS_3407852_3]**
- **Potential increases in potash supply from competitors in Russia and Laos, along with demand uncertainties, may lead to market oversupply and pressure on potash prices, affecting Mosaic's future revenues.**  **[MOS_3407852_10]** ,  **[MOS_3407852_17]**

641dbda627d0de5fecfa170fa0e3b5ad078b777a99957331e7e9099838b695d9

- Mosaic projects global **phosphate shipments of 73-76 million tons** and **potash shipments of 70-73 million tons** for 2024, with potash projections increasing by **1 million tons** due to strong demand in Asia.  **[MOS_3397162_15]**
- The company has **sold out all Q3 available phosphate** and **80% of potash** in North America, with robust demand in Brazil expected to **set a new record** in 2024 shipments.  **[MOS_3397162_7]**
- Mosaic is making significant progress in ramping up phosphate production, confident about **hitting the historical run rate of 7.8-8.2 million tons** going into 2025, which will improve **cost absorption and margins**.  **[MOS_3397162_23]**

bd846377abd96037370cf9269f005b41ac65d161a9b343ecffe0545014f9207c

- **Phosphate conversion costs remain significantly higher than historical levels**; currently around $100 per ton compared to $65 in 2018-2019, and the company does not expect to return to those lower costs due to inflation pressures.  **[MOS_3397162_26]**
- **Softening corn and soybean prices** could negatively impact fertilizer demand, as these crops represent about one-third of global P&K demand.  **[MOS_3397162_2]** ,  **[MOS_3397162_4]**
- **Execution risks in achieving production targets** remain, with the company acknowledging that they "still have a lot to go in the back half of the year" to reach the 8 million ton run rate, which could impact cost absorption benefits.  **[MOS_3397162_23]** ,  **[MOS_3397162_5]** ,  **[MOS_3397162_10]**

233a333d9de61631d1123151578bc51e30986fcf408c3490cb41014e11e5a6b5

- **Mosaic's optimistic outlook relies on fertilizer prices increasing in the second half of the year; if prices do not rise as expected, it could negatively impact their profitability.**  **[MOS_3382329_18]**
- **There is uncertainty regarding the valuation and liquidity of Mosaic's investment in Ma'aden; difficulties in realizing the value of this investment could adversely affect Mosaic's financial position.**  **[MOS_3382329_8]** **[MOS_3382329_15]**
- **Increased production from Mosaic may add supply to the market, potentially putting downward pressure on fertilizer prices and impacting revenues and margins.**  **[MOS_3382329_17]**

1b8b02523553127635a83796fe659fdf38ea0c7f49941d3faec7baca4871b0d5

- Mosaic expects **strong fertilizer demand** in 2024, with **record or near-record shipments** as growers need to replenish soil nutrients depleted over the past two years of under-application.  **[MOS_3374705_8]**
- Tight global phosphate supply due to factors like China's export restrictions and increased industrial demand is leading to **some of the strongest stripping margins in the last decade**, which are expected to remain elevated throughout the year, benefiting Mosaic.  **[MOS_3374705_10]**
- Mosaic plans to ramp up phosphate production to an **8 million-tonne annual run rate**, reducing unit costs by **$20 to $25 per tonne**, significantly improving margins and enhancing through-cycle returns.  **[MOS_3374705_13]**

6ec036c27356428241ec861ec0425415f01d02b5c30fcf7b292eafcc298bf20d

1. **Ma'aden Investment Valuation**  
   **Q:** How do you view the $1.5 billion valuation of Ma'aden?  
   **A:** Management believes the **$1.5 billion valuation** for their Ma'aden investment is fair and attractive, representing **twice their initial investment**.  **[MOS_3382329_15]**  They expect valuation multiples to be consistent with historical levels during their ownership period.  **[MOS_3382329_15]** 

2. **Ma'aden Hedging Strategy**  
   **Q:** Can you hedge or lock in Ma'aden's value now?  
   **A:** Management acknowledges the importance of protecting the Ma'aden investment and is evaluating options, considering factors like market liquidity, but is not ready to provide specifics.  **[MOS_3382329_8]** 

3. **Ma'aden Transaction Rationale**  
   **Q:** Why was this Ma'aden deal the best option?  
   **A:** The transaction brings transparency to the investment's value and provides capital flexibility.  **[MOS_3382329_10]**  It satisfies objectives for both parties, including Ma'aden's desire to consolidate JV ownership.  **[MOS_3382329_10]** 

4. **Financial Impact of Ma'aden Deal**  
   **Q:** What's the impact on free cash flow and EBITDA?  
   **A:** The transaction will have minimal impact on Mosaic's EBITDA and free cash flow.  **[MOS_3382329_16]**  Historically, cash distributions from the JV are included, and future equity earnings will continue to be recognized similarly.  **[MOS_3382329_16]** 

5. **Phosphate Market Tightness**  
   **Q:** Why is phosphate supply-demand compelling?  
   **A:** Phosphate markets are tight due to reduced Chinese exports, down **70%** in Q1, reducing supply by **1 million tonnes**.  **[MOS_3382329_9]**  Demand has recovered, and structural changes in China are further tightening agricultural phosphate supply.  **[MOS_3382329_9]** 

6. **Potash Market Balance**  
   **Q:** Why isn't potash supply-demand as tight?  
   **A:** Potash markets are balanced as Russian and Belarusian production returns to pre-war levels, and new supply from Laos emerges.  **[MOS_3382329_9]**  Demand growth is expected at **1–2%** annually, keeping supply and demand in equilibrium.  **[MOS_3382329_9]** 

7. **Phosphate Cost Improvements**  
   **Q:** Are cost trends improving profitability?  
   **A:** Yes, lower raw material costs, including ammonia and sulfur, will enhance stripping margins throughout the year.  **[MOS_3382329_11]**  Despite seasonal price pressures, margins are expected to remain strong at decade-high levels.  **[MOS_3382329_11]** 

8. **Phosphate Production and Reserves**  
   **Q:** How sustainable are cost improvements and reserves?  
   **A:** Achieving a **2 million-tonne** run rate will reduce costs by **$20 to $30 per tonne**.  **[MOS_3382329_13]**  Rock costs will improve, and Mosaic has **30–40 years** of phosphate rock reserves in Florida, supporting long-term cost benefits.  **[MOS_3382329_13]** 

9. **Impact of Turnarounds on Supply**  
   **Q:** Do turnarounds affect supply and prices?  
   **A:** Turnarounds are necessary maintenance but do not significantly influence market prices.  **[MOS_3382329_17]**  Increased production will meet demand without materially impacting market tightness.  **[MOS_3382329_17]** 

10. **Phosphate Import Duties**  
    **Q:** How do duty changes affect Mosaic and consumers?  
    **A:** Duties level the playing field and eliminate unfair subsidies, leading to a healthier industry and more competition for U.S. farmers.  **[MOS_3382329_14]** 

11. **Potash Sales and Contracts**  
    **Q:** Breakdown of potash sales and contract assumptions?  
    **A:** Potash sales are **45%** domestic and **55%** offshore.  **[MOS_3382329_12]**  The India contract is expected to settle soon due to strong demand and low inventories; China is likely to settle later in Q2.  **[MOS_3382329_12]** 

12. **Fertilizer Price Expectations**  
    **Q:** Will you be disappointed if prices don't rise in H2?  
    **A:** Management includes expected contract prices in forecasts and believes fundamentals support higher prices in the second half.  **[MOS_3382329_18]**  They would be surprised if prices do not reflect these market fundamentals.  **[MOS_3382329_18]** 

13. **Fertilizantes EBITDA Outlook**  
    **Q:** Where can Fertilizantes EBITDA get to in coming years?  
    **A:** Management sees EBITDA improving through increased distribution volumes at **$30 to $40** margins, cost reductions of **$20 to $30 million**, and growth from biosciences starting in 2025.  **[MOS_3382329_7]** 

f69a2a4858c6057032bef3c43877a1f7cd44159989f4d1718f1e2d3dfe932c28

- **Mosaic Biosciences is experiencing accelerated growth**, with products now being used on **9 million acres** globally. The company sees this business as a **potential growth engine** with promising products in the pipeline, such as **nitrogen fixation materials** and **phosphorus solubility enhancers**.  **[MOS_3407852_9]**
- Mosaic is on track to achieve **$150 million** in annual run-rate cost savings by the end of **2025**, enhancing profitability. Additionally, investments like the **HydroFloat project** at Esterhazy are expected to increase production capacity by **400,000 tons** next year.  **[MOS_3407852_17]** **[MOS_3407852_1]** **[MOS_3407852_10]**
- The company expects **strong demand** for fertilizers in **2025**, driven by factors like nutrient depletion from **large crop yields**, increased biofuel demand, and supply constraints from competitors, positioning Mosaic favorably in the market.  **[MOS_3407852_1]** **[MOS_3407852_14]**

bd3cb18e1081baead19c93a90525f973489e3bc32c0b3c55dc07394fe6e63933

1. **Potash Demand and Mosaic's Capacity**  
   **Q:** What is your outlook for potash demand and Mosaic's capacity in 2025?  
   **A:** Mosaic expects potash market demand to grow by **1.5 to 2 million tons** in 2025, driven by recovery in markets like Indonesia and Malaysia.  **[MOS_3407852_10]**  Supply increases may come from Russia's EuroChem and Uralkali, and expansion in Laos, but these have significant uncertainties.  **[MOS_3407852_10]**  Mosaic plans to add **400,000 tons** of capacity at Esterhazy through the Hydrofloat project coming online midyear 2025, enabling Esterhazy and Belle Plaine to produce around **9 million tons**.  **[MOS_3407852_10]** 

2. **Phosphate Run Rate and Normalized Earnings**  
   **Q:** What is the expected phosphate production run rate and impact on normalized earnings?  
   **A:** Mosaic anticipates achieving a phosphate production run rate of **7.8 to 8.2 million tons** annually after completing turnarounds by the end of this year.  **[MOS_3407852_11]** **[MOS_3407852_14]**  Conversion costs are expected to decrease by **$20 to $30 per ton** from 2023 levels, sustaining on an annualized basis.  **[MOS_3407852_11]**  Rock costs are around **$55 per ton**, with minor upside potential.  **[MOS_3407852_11]**  This improved run rate and cost structure should positively impact normalized earnings in 2025 and beyond.  **[MOS_3407852_11]** **[MOS_3407852_14]** 

3. **Phosphate Pricing and Market Outlook**  
   **Q:** Are there concerns about phosphate affordability impacting demand and pricing?  
   **A:** While phosphate prices are high, Mosaic believes the market remains constructive due to limited supply.  **[MOS_3407852_15]**  No significant new capacity has been announced that would alter this outlook in the near term.  **[MOS_3407852_15]**  High phosphate prices are also supported by elevated raw material costs for ammonia and sulfur.  **[MOS_3407852_15]**  Unless there are fundamental changes on the supply side or raw material costs, Mosaic does not foresee major pricing shifts.  **[MOS_3407852_15]** 

4. **India Phosphate Demand and Subsidy Impact**  
   **Q:** How are India's subsidies affecting phosphate demand, and what is the outlook?  
   **A:** India experienced unmet demand for DAP due to low farmer prices at **$360 per ton** and high international prices around **$640 per ton**, leading to a gap not bridged by government subsidies.  **[MOS_3407852_13]**  This resulted in an estimated **2 million-ton** reduction in DAP shipments in 2024.  **[MOS_3407852_13]**  Mosaic expects adjustments in farmer prices and government subsidies in 2025, enabling importers to meet the strong farmer demand.  **[MOS_3407852_13]** 

5. **Brazilian Farmer Activity and Fertilizer Demand**  
   **Q:** What is the current state of farmer activity and fertilizer demand in Brazil?  
   **A:** Despite challenges from commodity price headwinds and credit constraints, Brazilian farmers are showing improved sentiment and economics.  **[MOS_3407852_12]**  For the upcoming safrinha corn, farmers have sold **67%** of their crops, **7%** higher than last year.  **[MOS_3407852_12]**  They have purchased over **60%** of their fertilizers, ahead of the same time last year.  **[MOS_3407852_12]**  This indicates increasing fertilizer demand and positive market activity.  **[MOS_3407852_12]** 

6. **China Phosphate Production**  
   **Q:** Has China's overall phosphate production risen, and what are the implications?  
   **A:** China is forecasted to produce more phosphate-related products in 2024 than in previous years, including increases in products like LFP and P4 used for herbicides like glyphosate.  **[MOS_3407852_17]**  There is also an increase in DAP, MAP, TSP, and SSP production, driven by higher local consumption and the adoption of GMO crops requiring intensified fertilizer management.  **[MOS_3407852_17]** 

7. **Biosciences Products and Pipeline**  
   **Q:** What progress has Mosaic made in its Biosciences products and pipeline?  
   **A:** Mosaic's Biosciences business is experiencing exciting growth, with products covering **9 million acres**.  **[MOS_3407852_9]**  Major products like Par Code and BioPass improve nutrient use efficiency.  **[MOS_3407852_9]**  The pipeline includes promising developments such as nitrogen fixation materials in final field trials and products enhancing phosphorus solubility.  **[MOS_3407852_9]**  These innovations could become a growth engine for Mosaic.  **[MOS_3407852_9]** 

8. **Brazil Fertilizantes Growth Outlook**  
   **Q:** Do you expect higher growth rates in Brazil's Fertilizantes market going forward?  
   **A:** Mosaic expects the Brazilian fertilizer market to continue growing, supported by improving farm economics and barter ratios.  **[MOS_3407852_16]**  Although Mosaic focuses on margin over volume, the upcoming Pomerance investment will add **1 million tons** of distribution capacity in northern Brazil by mid-2025, enhancing growth opportunities.  **[MOS_3407852_16]** 

9. **Belarus/Russia Potash Exports**  
   **Q:** Have there been any signs of potash export curtailments from Belarus or Russia?  
   **A:** Mosaic has not observed any evidence that Belarus or Russia have reduced potash export rates, despite reports suggesting potential curtailments.  **[MOS_3407852_17]**  Shipments from Belarus have remained consistent over the last quarter.  **[MOS_3407852_17]**  Mosaic remains prepared to adjust its strategy if changes occur, leveraging its resilient supply chain.  **[MOS_3407852_17]** 

ba70cb44801adc3b2daedac290b2bba8507291de0b509bbb199c958830d2294e

- **Strong fertilizer demand and higher prices anticipated in the second half of the year**, supported by positive market fundamentals.  **[MOS_3382329_18]**
- **Cost improvements in phosphate operations**, with significant reductions in rock costs expected in the second half, enhancing profitability.  **[MOS_3382329_13]**
- **Expansion of Brazil operations**, including the new **1 million-tonne** blending plant at Palmeirante, aiming to grow EBITDA and capitalize on market opportunities.  **[MOS_3382329_7]**

4590df2840123e46484a82d489c4fdfee24ad8d8f7fe75dfb4a74f89ca17d9e2

- Phosphate production will not reach the target annual run rate of **8 million tonnes** until the end of the year due to extensive maintenance turnarounds in the first half, potentially limiting near-term earnings.  **[MOS_3374705_13]**
- The Ma'aden joint venture is not contributing significant cash returns, as earnings are used to pay down debt, with approximately **$1.5 billion** of debt reduction over the past few years, resulting in minimal dividends to Mosaic.  **[MOS_3374705_14]**
- Despite two years of nutrient under-application leading to soil depletion, Mosaic's 2024 shipment forecasts for phosphate and potash only return to **2021 levels**, suggesting limited demand growth and potential oversupply concerns.  **[MOS_3374705_8]**

b605edfde8d502213c5c8fbab8656cc6ad34f84264ff1b776aa3ff076859fdb9

Mosaic Co (MOS)

Financials