Phosphate Cycle Risks and LFP Demand
Q: What could disrupt the phosphate cycle? LFP demand in DAP terms by 2030?
A: Management doesn't see significant new phosphate capacity coming on, so they remain optimistic about prices. " On LFP demand, global EV battery adoption for LFP is expected to be 35% to 55%, with energy storage being a major driver. "

Potash Market Fundamentals and Pricing
Q: Are global potash inventories normalized? Why are prices same as 2019 despite sanctions?
A: Sanctioned potash supply from Russia and Belarus has found ways to market, shifting trade flows. Supply has returned to pre-sanction levels, and demand is robust, which explains current pricing. "

Phosphate Margins and Ammonia Costs
Q: What's the gap between realized and stripping margins? Why did ammonia costs rise?
A: Realized margins are higher than benchmarks due to lower ammonia costs. " Ammonia costs rose in Q2 because earlier spot purchases from Q1, when the ammonia plant was down, flowed into inventory. "

Investor Engagement and Market Dynamics
Q: What needs to be done to reengage investors?
A: Management believes execution is key. They need to deliver on their strategy and demonstrate progress, especially in achieving an 8 million ton run rate. They also think concerns about Chinese exports are overstated. "

Phosphate Conversion Costs
Q: Expected range for phosphate conversion costs as volumes increase?
A: As volumes improve, they expect costs to decrease by $20 per ton from current levels. It's unlikely to return to previous $65-$70 per ton due to inflation. "

Brazilian Fertilizantes Business Outlook
Q: Update on volumes and margins in Brazil; are Q3 margins similar to Q2?
A: Margins are expected to stay steady at $30-$40 per ton. " Demand is strong in Q3, and they've sold everything for the quarter. "

Fertilizantes Second Half Outlook
Q: Factors that could boost Fertilizantes margins? Preview for Q4 profitability?
A: They're optimistic about the second half; margins expected to remain in the $30-$40 range. Q3 is solid; Q4 depends on market dynamics and possible volume shifts. "

Safety Incident and Phosphate Production Outlook
Q: Elaborate on safety and maintenance; can you reach 2 million tons per quarter in Q4?
A: They addressed a serious safety incident. They're optimistic about ramping up phosphate production to historical run rates by Q4. "

Industry Shipments Outlook
Q: Update on 2024 industry shipment projections for potash and phosphate.
A: Phosphate shipments are projected at 73-76 million tons; potash at 70-73 million tons, with potash projections slightly up due to strong Asian markets. "

Esterhazy Turnaround and Colonsay Operations
Q: How long will Esterhazy be down? Impact on costs with running Colonsay?
A: Esterhazy will be down for about a month; Colonsay will operate to offset lost production, potentially increasing costs due to its higher cost structure. "

Biologicals Business Model
Q: How are you selling biologicals? Do they reduce P&K application rates?
A: They're selling biologics through existing channels, often coated on fertilizer granules. Products like PowerCoat enhance yields without reducing P&K application rates. "

Countervailing Duties (CVD) Update
Q: Update on the CVD situation in the U.S.
A: The ITC still has appeals and rulings pending. The Department of Commerce released preliminary rate adjustments; final numbers are expected in November. "

Phosphate and Potash Price Gap
Q: Will the price gap between P and K narrow?
A: They don't expect significant changes; the price divergence reflects different supply and demand fundamentals. "

Colonsay Operations and Potash Strategy
Q: Will you keep Colonsay on standby? What's the rationale for supply flexibility?
A: Keeping Colonsay as a flexible option provides significant upside. It offsets Esterhazy downtime; future operations will be assessed based on market needs and shareholder value. "