Phosphate Cycle Risks and LFP Demand
Q: What could disrupt the phosphate cycle? LFP demand in DAP terms by 2030?
A: Management doesn't see significant new phosphate capacity coming on, so they remain optimistic about prices. On LFP demand, global EV battery adoption for LFP is expected to be 35% to 55%, with energy storage being a major driver.

Potash Market Fundamentals and Pricing
Q: Are global potash inventories normalized? Why are prices same as 2019 despite sanctions?
A: Sanctioned potash supply from Russia and Belarus has found ways to market, shifting trade flows. Supply has returned to pre-sanction levels, and demand is robust, which explains current pricing.

Phosphate Margins and Ammonia Costs
Q: What's the gap between realized and stripping margins? Why did ammonia costs rise?
A: Realized margins are higher than benchmarks due to lower ammonia costs. Ammonia costs rose in Q2 because earlier spot purchases from Q1, when the ammonia plant was down, flowed into inventory.

Investor Engagement and Market Dynamics
Q: What needs to be done to reengage investors?
A: Management believes execution is key. They need to deliver on their strategy and demonstrate progress, especially in achieving an 8 million ton run rate. They also think concerns about Chinese exports are overstated.

Phosphate Conversion Costs
Q: Expected range for phosphate conversion costs as volumes increase?
A: As volumes improve, they expect costs to decrease by $20 per ton from current levels. It's unlikely to return to previous $65-$70 per ton due to inflation.

Brazilian Fertilizantes Business Outlook
Q: Update on volumes and margins in Brazil; are Q3 margins similar to Q2?
A: Margins are expected to stay steady at $30-$40 per ton. Demand is strong in Q3, and they've sold everything for the quarter.

Fertilizantes Second Half Outlook
Q: Factors that could boost Fertilizantes margins? Preview for Q4 profitability?
A: They're optimistic about the second half; margins expected to remain in the $30-$40 range. Q3 is solid; Q4 depends on market dynamics and possible volume shifts.

Safety Incident and Phosphate Production Outlook
Q: Elaborate on safety and maintenance; can you reach 2 million tons per quarter in Q4?
A: They addressed a serious safety incident. They're optimistic about ramping up phosphate production to historical run rates by Q4.

Industry Shipments Outlook
Q: Update on 2024 industry shipment projections for potash and phosphate.
A: Phosphate shipments are projected at 73-76 million tons; potash at 70-73 million tons, with potash projections slightly up due to strong Asian markets.

Esterhazy Turnaround and Colonsay Operations
Q: How long will Esterhazy be down? Impact on costs with running Colonsay?
A: Esterhazy will be down for about a month; Colonsay will operate to offset lost production, potentially increasing costs due to its higher cost structure.

Biologicals Business Model
Q: How are you selling biologicals? Do they reduce P&K application rates?
A: They're selling biologics through existing channels, often coated on fertilizer granules. Products like PowerCoat enhance yields without reducing P&K application rates.

Countervailing Duties (CVD) Update
Q: Update on the CVD situation in the U.S.
A: The ITC still has appeals and rulings pending. The Department of Commerce released preliminary rate adjustments; final numbers are expected in November.

Phosphate and Potash Price Gap
Q: Will the price gap between P and K narrow?
A: They don't expect significant changes; the price divergence reflects different supply and demand fundamentals.

Colonsay Operations and Potash Strategy
Q: Will you keep Colonsay on standby? What's the rationale for supply flexibility?
A: Keeping Colonsay as a flexible option provides significant upside. It offsets Esterhazy downtime; future operations will be assessed based on market needs and shareholder value.