Nucor Corporation - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 delivered sequential improvement: revenue $8.46B, EBITDA $1.30B, and diluted EPS $2.60; revenue and EBITDA exceeded consensus, while EPS was roughly in line-to-slightly above the mean, supported by higher sheet and plate pricing and record sheet shipments. Q2 revenue $8.46B vs S&P Global consensus $8.41B*, EBITDA $1.30B vs $1.23B*, EPS $2.60 vs $2.64* (rounded) — net effect a modest beat on revenue/EBITDA and essentially in line on EPS.*
• All three segments improved vs Q1: steel mills pre‑tax earnings rose to $843M (from $231M), steel products to $392M (from $288M), and raw materials to $57M (from $29M).
• Management guides Q3 earnings “nominally lower” on expected steel mill margin compression despite resilient demand and healthy backlogs; this is the main near‑term risk/catalyst for the stock narrative.
• Operating rates climbed to 85% (vs 80% in Q1 and 75% in Q2’24), shipments to outside customers held at ~6.82M tons, and mills backlog ended Q2 at ~3.7M tons (+30% YoY), reflecting robust end‑market demand across infrastructure, energy and data centers.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record operational execution: “our sheet‑making group shipped nearly 3.1 million tons during the second quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter where the sheet group has set a new shipment record” (CEO).
• Brandenburg plate mill achieved positive EBITDA, with record production and shipments; approvals for line pipe supply broaden the opportunity set (EVP Plate).
• Steel products segment delivered strong results and healthy backlog; pre‑tax earnings rose 28% q/q to $392M, with LTM segment margins around 16% and contribution ~45% of total pre‑tax segment earnings (CEO/CFO).

What Went Wrong

• Guidance for Q3 calls for margin compression in steel mills, leading to “nominally lower” consolidated earnings vs Q2 despite stable volumes/pricing — a near‑term headwind.
• Working capital build drove negative free cash flow in 1H; management expects a “dramatic change” to FCF in 2H as capex moderates and WC normalizes (CFO).
• Energy costs remain elevated (~$40/ton YoY up; sequentially down), contributing to conversion cost pressure in steel mills (CFO).

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning and welcome to Nucor's second quarter 2025 earnings call. All announcements are placed on mute to prevent any background noise, and today's call is being recorded. After the speakers have prepared remarks, I'll provide instructions for callers wishing to ask any questions. I'd now like to introduce Jack Sullivan, Vice President, Treasurer, and General Manager of Investor Relations, to begin your call.

Jack Sullivan (VP, Treasurer and General Manager of Investor Relations)

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Nucor's second quarter earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Leon Topalian, Chair, President, and CEO, along with Steve Laxton, Executive Vice President and CFO. Other members of Nucor's executive team are also here with us today and may participate during the Q&A portion of the call. Yesterday, we posted our second quarter earnings release and investor presentation to Nucor's IR website. We encourage you to access these materials, as we will cover portions of them during the call. Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results may be different than forward-looking statements and involve risks outlined in our Safe Harbor statement and disclosed in Nucor's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information and disclosures, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

With that, let's turn the call over to Leon.

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Thanks, Jack. Now, I want to begin by thanking our 33,000 Nucor teammates for delivering a solid quarter, both in terms of financial results and our safety performance. Amid all the uncertainty and distractions, you have remained focused on executing our growth strategy and creating value for our shareholders, customers, and communities, and you did it all while setting another all-time safety record for the first half of any year. Thank you for your vigilance and focus and never losing sight of our most important value. Let's continue to carry that momentum into the back half of the year. To recap some of the second quarter financials, Nucor generated EBITDA of approximately $1.3 billion and earned $2.60 per diluted share.

This represents a significant improvement over our first quarter results, driven by higher average selling prices in our steel mill segment and stable realized pricing in higher volumes in our steel product segment. During the quarter, we returned $329 million to Nucor shareholders through dividends and buybacks, bringing our total capital return to shareholders for the first half of the year to $758 million. Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $954 million, and we remain on track to deploy approximately $3 billion in CapEx for the year. Our team continues to execute well, and I'd like to highlight just a few of our accomplishments for the quarter. Production levels and shipments at our Brandenburg Plate Mill trended higher for a sixth consecutive quarter. Shipments in June reached another record, helping Brandenburg achieve positive EBITDA for the quarter.

Meanwhile, Brandenburg's product development team continues to strengthen its market position with key customers for complex grades of steel plate that we have not been able to produce prior. I'd also like to recognize our entire sheet-making group for shipping nearly 3.1 million tons during the second quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter where the sheet group has set a new shipment record. In particular, I'd like to congratulate our team at Gallatin Sheet Mill in Kentucky for setting a new monthly shipping record during the quarter. On our first quarter earnings call, I mentioned our structural steel backlog reaching historically high levels, and that set us up nicely for strong shipments in the second quarter. Nucor's BEAM team delivered, shipping over 630,000 tons and generating the highest quarterly earnings for this business. Since 2022. The fourth highest of all time.

On the growth front, our construction teams continue to make great progress as we near completion of several important capital projects. Our Rebar Micro Mill in Lexington, North Carolina, recently rolled its first heat and is now in the early stages of ramping up production. The team in Kingman, Arizona, has successfully melted, cast, and rolled several heats out of its new melt shop, and it will be ramping up production throughout the third quarter. For Nucor Towers and Structures, pole production and galvanizing operations in Alabama are set to begin by September, with customer shipments beginning in the fourth quarter. Our Indiana Greenfield project is set to commence full operations by the spring of 2026, with customer shipments beginning in the second quarter.

Within sheet, we remain on schedule to complete our coating complex in Crawfordsville, Indiana, by the end of 2025, and our galvanizing line in Berkeley, South Carolina, by the middle of 2026. The construction of our new West Virginia Sheet Mill is nearly 60% complete and remains on track for completion by the end of 2026. A key driver of our quarterly results came from the strong performance of our steel products group. We have grown this business to become the broadest and most diverse portfolio of downstream steel products in North America, allowing Nucor to offer a wide variety of solutions for our customers. For the entire segment, second quarter pre-tax earnings were $392 million, a 28% increase over the adjusted results of the previous quarter. In fact, pre-tax earnings for each of the main product groups comprising this segment were in line with or above Q1 levels.

On an LTM basis, the steel products segment accounted for 45% of Nucor's total pre-tax segment earnings, with EBITDA margins of approximately 16%. Both of these metrics remain significantly higher than their respective pre-pandemic averages. Tariff policy continues to evolve, but has been positive for the steel industry overall. We support the administration's recent actions to strengthen the Section 232 program by increasing the tariffs to 50%. We also applaud the Commerce Department's decision earlier this year to expand the review of steel derivative products covered by the Section 232 tariffs and for implementing a transparent inclusions process. These steps will help to curb the volume of unfairly traded imports and protect our national security. However, dumped and subsidized imports continue to persist, and the vigorous enforcement of our trade laws is needed now more than ever.

Nucor and other domestic producers have been injured by elevated levels of unfairly traded, corrosion-resistant imports in recent years and filed trade positions on core imports from 10 countries last September. Nucor is pleased with the preliminary determinations from the U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. International Trade Commission in these investigations, and we anticipate affirmative final determinations from both agencies later this summer and fall. The Department of Commerce and ITC have also initiated investigations into rebar imports from four countries, with the ITC issuing an affirmative preliminary injury determination earlier this month. Affirmative determinations in these cases and other trade proceedings are critical to ensuring a level playing field for the steel industry in America. We are optimistic that the administration's vigorous enforcement of our trade laws and the strengthened Section 232 program will result in a sustained reduction of imports into our market.

We're also monitoring the evolving country-specific tariff negotiations and their impact on raw material cost. Nucor's raw material supply chain is advantaged by having a broader set of capabilities than any other steel producer in North America. That diversity, along with our world-class sourcing and logistics teams, gives us flexibility to source raw materials in a way that optimizes our cost structure and adapts to this highly dynamic situation. Beyond trade policy, we were pleased to see the tax provisions and manufacturing incentives contained in the new legislation signed into law earlier this month. We expect the bill will lead to further economic growth and boost our competitiveness as a nation. It will unleash new investments in steel-intensive projects and promote the restoring of vital manufacturing while enhancing our national security. As North America's largest and most capable steel products company, Nucor is incredibly well-positioned to support this growth.

With that, let me turn it over to Steve, who will share additional details about our second quarter performance, the current demand environment for steel, and our outlook for the third quarter. Steve.

Steve Laxton (EVP and CFO)

Thank you, Leon, and thank you all for joining us on the call this morning. During the second quarter, Nucor generated net earnings of $603 million, or $2.60 a share, right at the midpoint of our earnings guidance range. This represents a substantial improvement over the prior quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.77. It is similar to the reported $2.68 earnings per share during the second quarter of last year. Year-to-date, Nucor's adjusted earnings were $782 million, or $3.37 a share. Our second quarter results included pre-operating and startup cost of approximately $136 million, or $0.45 per share. This is down $34 million compared to the prior quarter and in line with the prior year's second quarter. Turning to the segment-level results for the quarter, the steel mill segment generated $843 million of pre-tax earnings, more than triple that of the prior quarter.

Higher average selling prices, particularly in our sheet and plate operations, were the largest drivers of the change in profitability. Total volume for the steel mill segment was in line with prior quarter, as increases in sheet, plate, and beam shipments were offset by lower bar shipments. We continue to see solid and steady booking rates, and our steel mills backlog at the end of the second quarter was up nearly 30% over this time last year. To comment briefly on the pricing environment, we would describe it as broadly stable. Our published consumer spot price for HRC has been within 5% band of either side of $900 a ton for the past 16 weeks. During this period, we shipped record sheet volumes, and our sheet backlog at the end of the second quarter was 15% higher than the same time last year.

As for rebar and MBQ products, we've recently announced price increases that take our average selling price for both products above their respective 13 and 52-week averages. We continue to see healthy overall demand for long products, and we expect lower rebar imports during the second half of the year. Turning to steel products, as Leon mentioned earlier, we saw another strong performance in this segment. During the second quarter, steel products generated pre-tax earnings of $392 million, up 28% over the prior quarter's adjusted basis. Results were driven by stable realized pricing and higher volumes, leading to our best earnings quarter for this segment since the second quarter of 2024. Similar to steel mills, our backlog levels for the steel product segment remain healthy, up approximately 20% from a year ago and extending into 2026 for some products.

We continue to see strong demand, as evidenced by robust quoting activity, and believe this reflects improved business confidence among our customers servicing the construction and infrastructure markets. In joist and deck, we're now seeing pricing for new orders at levels that are approaching our average backlog pricing. As a result, prices and margins in this business are expected to stabilize above pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year. Turning to raw material segment, we realized pre-tax earnings of approximately $57 million for the quarter, an increase of approximately 95% over the first quarter. Results were in line with expectations, with stable volumes and pricing and lower operating expenses. Moving to the balance sheet, Nucor remains committed to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit profile.

Nucor's credit ratings are the highest of any North American steel producer, and we have long believed that our financial strength is a competitive advantage, allowing us to execute our strategy through various phases of the economic cycle. During the quarter, we retired $1 billion in long-term debt with proceeds from our senior notes issued in March. We ended the second quarter with a total debt-to-capital ratio of approximately 24% and cash of approximately $2.5 billion. Our next substantial maturity is not until 2027, and more than 80% of our long-term debt maturities are after 2030. In addition to maintaining a strong balance sheet, a cornerstone of Nucor's capital allocation framework is to provide a meaningful direct return to shareholders. During the second quarter, we returned $329 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

When combined with the first quarter, we've returned $758 million of cash to shareholders, representing nearly 100% of Nucor's year-to-date net earnings. During this same period, we've repurchased approximately 4 million shares at a weighted average value of approximately $124 a share. Leon covered some of the factors impacting our markets, but now I'd like to touch on four of the larger macro themes that are driving demand. First, technology and advanced manufacturing. Since the passage of the CHIPS Act in 2022, we've seen announcements of over 90 technology and advanced manufacturing projects totaling over $450 billion in private investments. That momentum is accelerated in 2025. These projects take time to move from announcement to construction, but we're seeing increased bidding and new order activity. We're currently supplying steel to eight large semiconductor facilities now under construction, which all require beam, rebar, joist and deck, and other downstream products.

Second, infrastructure demand remains strong, driven by funds allocated and now flowing to projects under the IIJA. We've seen notable increases in public transit, highway, bridge, and tunnel contract awards, and our bar and plate teams are responding to this demand. Nucor's bar shipments were 13% higher in the first half of the year, while Nucor's plate shipments to the bridge market hit a record in the second quarter and rose 35% for the first half of 2025. We also anticipate higher steel tube demand later this year as contracts progress for unfinished sections of the border wall. Third, energy. In the energy sector, Nucor has seen exceptional growth in power transmission, with the first-half shipments to this market up 88% year over year.

We've also seen significant increases in steel shipments related to solar and onshore wind projects, and the recently enacted tax policy will likely lead to some incremental pull-ahead tons over the coming year. Additionally, our Brandenburg facility has been certified to supply line pipe for both LNG and oil pipeline projects, opening up new opportunities in this expanding market. Last but not least, data centers. Construction in this market remains particularly strong. According to the Dodge Construction Network, spending from construction starts is projected to grow 18% this year and an additional 26% in 2026. Our beam orders for this segment have increased significantly and serve as a precursor to incremental demand for a variety of downstream products that Nucor supplies. We expect these growing market segments will continue to drive demand for steel and steel products for the foreseeable future.

Turning to the third quarter outlook, we expect Nucor's consolidated earnings to be nominally lower than in the second quarter. In the steel mill segment, despite resilient backlogs and stable demand, we expect modest margin compression compared to the second quarter. In both the steel products and raw material segments, earnings are expected to be similar to the second quarter. For steel products, we expect slightly lower profitability in tubular and joist and deck, offset by improved performance in other business lines. As we look ahead to the second half of 2025, our expectation is that domestic steel demand will be higher than it was in the second half of 2024, and with the broadest range of capabilities in the North American steel market. We are confident in our ability to create value for our customers and shareholders as we capture a healthy share of that demand.

We would like to hear from you and answer any questions you may have. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much. We now open the lines for Q&A. If you'd like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you'd like to remove yourself at the line of questioning, it will be star followed by two. As a reminder to raise a question, it will be star followed by one. Our first question comes from Bill Peterson from JP Morgan. Bill, the line is now open.

Bill Peterson (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Y``eah. Good morning and thanks for taking my question. On the steel products, you mentioned the margin compression. Can you break that down for us? Is that a statement of higher input cost? I guess how should we think about pricing directionally, kind of flattish on a blended basis from the second to the third quarter? Trying to get a sense before the margin expands in the fourth quarter on how we should think about the puts and takes.

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Yeah, Bill, let me kick it off, and then maybe I'll ask John Hollatz, our EVP over that group, to touch on a few things. I want to begin with thanking the men and women of the Nucor family. This is the safest start to the first half of any year in the history of our company, and I couldn't be more proud of how our team continues to generate and take care of one another and our most important value. Every metric, every result that we will talk about today and moving on are generated through those team members. Again, to see that value exemplified as the safest first half of any years is an incredible, incredible achievement. Thank you for that. The second. To your question specifically, Bill, look, it's a great question. We were talking earlier this morning before we got on the call.

If we think about the resiliency of non-res construction and the construction market in general, that took off really post-COVID, and it has remained robust for a long period of time. We anticipate that remaining robust. 2024 was not a particularly great year. As we look at the strength of their backlog, you're pushing six to nine months out. The nominal adjustment that we see in pricing isn't because the demand drivers are weak. It's the lag effect that many of those orders were taken in late Q4, early Q1 of this year, are now being realized and sold under those pricing. In fact, we've just recently announced a price increase last week. The demand drivers for this segment are really robust, and we expect them to remain that way again throughout the rest of this year and, quite frankly, beyond.

It's an incredibly important, strong contributor to our business segment. We're proud of all the groups that make up that family. As we move forward, we see strength in that market.

John Hollatz (EVP)

Yeah, Bill, this is John Hollatz. Again, it's very normal for us to have margin expansion and contraction as we have movements in steel prices. Steve pointed to the joist and deck market and what we expect out of that in the second half of the year. Some of our—you got to remember, we have a dozen different businesses in our downstream portfolio. Some of those backlogs are nine months out, so we have good visibility as to what those margins would look like. Some of those backlogs are six weeks out. There is a lot of variation in that. I think it's important to note that many of these downstream businesses are custom-engineered products that have value-added solutions. Our teams have done an excellent job of separating pricing from movements in raw materials and really redefining the earnings profile of these businesses.

As Leon mentioned, demand remains solid, and we're optimistic about the future of downstream products.

Bill Peterson (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks for that. Also, thanks for highlighting the safety performance, strong results on that. My second question is on the steel mills. Nice to see utilization trends in the first half of the year. Among the steel products, which are running at a relatively lower utilization? Or said another way, what is your biggest or best opportunities to displace imports as we look ahead to the second half of the year?

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Yeah, look, I tell you that that really sits across the board. Our capability set is the most diverse within all North American steel producers. So whether we're talking tubular, joist, deck, rebar. But there are some opportunities, right? We're running roughly 85% utilization rates across the steel mill segment. Again, there's more opportunities in sheet. There's more opportunities in our plate group. We have more opportunities in rebar and some of our long products. Again, we're well-positioned to supply those. Again, we don't just simply produce to stack backlogs up. We're producing the orders in most every case. We're meeting the demand where it's at and, again, have the flexibility to adapt and adjust very quickly. While we're pleased to see what import levels are doing and coming down in that 20-21%, they're still too high. We need to be in the low teens.

Quite frankly, the North American steel industry can supply the needs of what's being required without having those imports come into the United States. We're going to continue to advocate for strong, fair trade, and balanced trade for, again, illegal imports being dumped and subsidized on the shores of the U.S.

Bill Peterson (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, thanks, Leon. Congrats on the strong execution.

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Appreciate it, Bill.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities. Lawson, your line is now open.

Lawson Winder (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you, Operator. Good morning, Leon. Good morning, Steve. Thank you for today's update. If I could ask about Lexington and Kingman and those ramp-ups, congratulations on getting those to the cusp of being fully operational. Could you speak to the pre-operating startup costs and the period-by-period outlook for those assets as they start contributing to EBITDA positively?

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Yeah, Lawson, look, I'm going to touch on a couple of things and then let Steve kick off into the pre-operating startup cost as they move through that startup. I want to begin with thanking our Lexington, North Carolina team in that micro mill and their startup and congratulating them on their safety and how hard they've continued to focus on our customers and bring that mill up. We're excited about what this mill is going to do. It's our third micro mill in the fleet alongside Frostproof and Cindelia. It's a market segment we know really well. We're excited about where that's geographically located as well in the Atlantic Corridor. We look for great things to come from them as they continue their startup into Q3 and Q4.

As well at Kingman, Arizona, we're proud of the team that they've started their melt shop up now and will continue to ramp up in that asset. It's geographically positioned incredibly well also in a market that's growing and continues to grow. The other point I'll mention maybe before Steve or Randy may want to share a few additional comments is you're starting to see the move into Nucor's bottom lines throughout the segment of contributors like our team in Nucor, Brandenburg, and the plate mill and the things that they've done there and ramping up Nucor, Gallatin, and our sheet mill and their delivery. We've got yet to fully realize the impacts of all of that to the bottom line.

Brandenburg's going to continue to ramp Gallatin, Lexington, North Carolina, Kingman, Arizona, our towers and structures plants in Alabama, Indiana that will start up later this year in the spring of next, as well as the Utah Towers plant that'll begin late next year, the galvanizing lines at Crawfordsville and Nucor, Berkeley, and finally West Virginia. You're seeing the start of the bottom line being impacted today, which will decrease the overhang of the pre-operating and startup cost. The momentum and the pent-up earnings power of Nucor is just now coming online. Over the next months and years, I love our strategy, our positioning, the customers and capability sets we're going to be able to serve, and how that's going to position Nucor to achieve the highest highs we've ever achieved and the highest lows. With that, Steve, maybe make a few comments on our pre-operating costs.

Steve Laxton (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Hey, Lawson, how are you doing? The pre-op startup cost came down quite a bit quarter over quarter. The real driver on that is the Brandenburg team getting to break even more so than some of the bar mills, although they're doing an excellent job as well. Just the sheer size of it, that's the one that's impacting it the most. I think if you're thinking about what to model out for the second half of the year, you're probably going to be in that $140 million-$150 million a quarter range for the back half of the year. Leon highlighted where we are. We're marching through. We're about three-fourths of the way through this major capital investment plan that we've had to reposition our company. He alluded to it, but you'll see those figures start to come down a little bit later. It'll lag our capital spending plans.

Lawson Winder (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks for that. That's fantastic, guys. If I could follow up on Brandenburg, what utilization rate is the asset now currently operating? How do you see that trending for Q3 and Q4?

Brad Ford (EVP)

Yeah, Lawson, this is Brad Ford. I'm happy to take that one. First, I'd like to just congratulate that Brandenburg team and really the entire plate group for the major step forward in Q2. We had record production, record shipments. The team achieved some pretty significant reductions in operating expenses and efficiencies. And then we also had some key achievements in product development, all contributing to that EBITDA positive Q2. Those are all records we expect to continue to break every quarter going forward, right? Specifically in Q3 and again in Q4. We're very proud of that team. One of the things we talk about at Brandenburg versus you talk about capacity utilization is really the story is around the capabilities of that mill. What that brings to the plate group. We saw that play out in some key end-use markets in Q2, specifically in the bridge side.

Bridge demand has been very, very strong. Over 20% of our plate group shipments in Q2 were only Brandenburg sizes. Prior to Brandenburg, tons that we couldn't participate in, customers we couldn't participate with. On the energy side, we saw onshore wind, power transmission, and line pipe, all very robust. As we mentioned in the opening comments, Brandenburg was approved by some large line pipe manufacturers. We expect this to be a larger part of our order book in the quarters ahead. Really, it's a story of capability over capacity. The addition of Brandenburg's capabilities has us extremely well positioned to really be the supplier of choice. We're pretty excited about the balance of this year and as we roll into 2026.

Lawson Winder (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you very much for that. I appreciate it. Best of luck to you all.

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Thanks, Lawson.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much. As a reminder, to raise a question, we'll be started by one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Katya Janke from BMO Capital Markets. Katya, your line is now open.

Katja Jancic (Analyst)

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe going back to the 3Q outlook, specifically to the mill segment. You expect volumes and pricing to be relatively stable, but also are calling for margin compression. Can you talk a bit more about what's driving that margin compression expectation?

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Yeah, Katya, I'll touch on that. Look, it's a few things. One, if we step back and look at the entire tariff picture, we've certainly looked at that and baked some of that into our forecast. As we think about the impact to slabs, the impact to raw materials, if the impact of the tariffs to Brazil come into effect on Friday, and that still remains to be seen, that could have some impact. However, I'll touch on that in a moment. That's a part of it. The second part of that forecast is really around, again, the lag effect. We touched on that a few minutes ago with the impact to our product segment where they're realizing that pricing delta that's now flowing through the system that is at lower pricing levels. Again, the drivers and the demand drivers beyond that remain incredibly robust.

As we move into Q3 and beyond, we're going to start realizing those higher selling prices. Again, that will adjust. Those are the two drivers that are impacting why we potentially see a nominal adjustment. Again, there's some upside as well if certain things happen. I don't want to just leave that overhang there with a comment around the tariffs. As we think about the raw material flexibility that we have, it's as broad and vast as any steel maker in North America. I'll maybe just touch on a few of the things that we're doing, the flexibility of our raw material spend, and why, if, again, Katya, the tariffs go into effect on Friday, why we will not feel the full impact of those to our bottom line.

Al Behr (EVP)

Sure, Leon. I'd be happy to. Katya, it's Al Bair. To unpack a bit what Leon is mentioning there, I'd start with those comments about our raw materials team having the broadest capability of any steel producer in North America. In simple terms, we're built for this. This is why we stay in game day shape and we're ready to play right now. That team is getting it done. This is their time to shine, and they are really performing. When we think about Brazil, there's really two key inputs that we buy from Brazil. One is DRI pellets, and the other is pig iron. As we think about DRI pellets, we've already taken the steps needed to mitigate that 50% tariff from Brazil. We've done that through changes to our supply, our global sourcing for those pellets, and through the mix that we feed those DRI plants.

The DRI issue is largely taken care of. When we shift to pig iron, I think it's helpful to first put our usage into perspective. Today, Katya, pig iron represents 7%-8% of our melt across the enterprise. If you look back five years or so, that would be double that. One example of this flexibility was the invasion of Ukraine. At that time, Russia and Ukraine were 50% of our pig supply. We pivoted very quickly in a very agile fashion and never missed a quality spec, never missed a customer commitment, and shifted our supply, pulling the levers we have to pull to react and respond. As we sit here today with pig iron, we would expect to do largely the same thing and pivot our supply and pull the levers that we have to pull.

Some of those are shifting to alternate supply like DRI, like low copper shred. You think about our DRI supply, it's internal, it's stable. Both of our DRI plants are world-class amongst their peers, absolutely world-class, and have become a top performer for the supply chain for our steel mills. The other is low copper shred. That's not directly a high-quality metallic substitute, but it's part of that picture. We've grown significantly in low copper shred production, and we expect to grow more into the future. I just summarize our positioning in this way, that this environment, it's very challenging and it's very fluid, but it's exactly the type of environment that we've built this team to handle. They're executing that strategy with skill and precision, and it just gives us other options that other producers don't have.

Katja Jancic (Analyst)

That's super helpful. Just to confirm, basically what I'm hearing is that you're preparing for the 50% tariffs from Brazil to go into effect on August 1. If they actually do not go into effect, there's upside to your current expectations. Is that fair?

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Yeah. Look, I think there's a lot of variables that could create some upside. Again, what our jobs are to make sure we provide a realistic forecast for you to estimate what we think the earnings are going to be. Again, let's talk in a week, and we'll let you know whether or not those things come to pass. Until that time, yeah, I don't want to speculate on what could be. We've built our models accordingly and again to put the risk mitigators there in place so that, again, we can pivot very quickly should they come to pass.

Katja Jancic (Analyst)

Perfect. Thank you. I'll hop back into the queue.

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Thank you, Katya.

Operator (participant)

Thank you so much. Our next question comes from Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas. Tristan, your line is now open.

Tristan Gresser (Head of Steel Equity Research)

Yes, hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Just a quick follow-up on the raw material cost. Have you seen any tariff-led cost already in Q2 on the DRI, buying or buying shred or anything? Was there anything in the average cost in Q2?

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

No. No, we did not, Tristan. No.

Tristan Gresser (Head of Steel Equity Research)

All right. That's clear. My second question, I think in your presentation, you talked about the beautiful bill potential impact. Could you maybe go a bit more in detail, and if you've been able to quantify and time those impacts, that would be appreciated. Maybe just a last question on the working capital. Look, you had a big build in H1. I'm not sure if that's also some raw material inventory strategy ahead of the tariffs. If you can share any type of outlook into H2 for your working capital, that'd be great as well. Thank you.

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Okay. I certainly got the front end of the question. I'm not sure I got the back end, but I'll let Steve answer that. Look, if I begin from the macro, the one big beautiful bill. I think certainty certainly comes into play, certainty of what the corporate tax rate's going to be. And again, now we can begin building certain things out. I think the other incentives for reshoring are certainly there. And again, when you think about reshoring, Nucor sits at the tip of the spear of all of that. We're the best, most diverse, well-positioned steel company to provide everything that's going in the ground and above. Our diversity of range of capabilities offers incredible opportunities.

I don't know if Brad mentioned it a few minutes ago, but when you think about Brandenburg and its offering today, it is the widest, heaviest, broadest range of plate-capable products in the United States. Now, as we think about long-term partnerships with defense, military applications, and beyond, it offers great exposure and pull-through for other products. Within that bill, you see $47 billion for funding for the border wall that we, again, sit at the ready poised, not only because we have it, but because we did it prior in the first administration. We've got $29 billion slated for shipbuilding, again, back to Brandenburg and the capability set in our plate ranges. $150 billion in defense spending that, again, we see sit in a very enviable position to be poised to supply all of that.

If I pull back one layer, one level higher from the bill itself, over the last six months, you've seen commitments from companies that are in the top Fortune 50 of this nation that announced $2 trillion of investment into the United States of America. Nucor sits incredibly well-positioned to do everything from the data centers, the energy, the markets, the clean manufacturing, the advanced manufacturing, all of those areas, from shipbuilding to bridges to defense and military, I think are wonderful pull-throughs. I think this bill is going to be very advantageous for the steel industry, but quite frankly, manufacturing as a whole.

Steve Laxton (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Hey, Tristan, this is Steve. And just to address the last part of your question about working capital changes, and it ties in with Leon's response about some positive demand trends, but it was a large factor. Working capital build is a large factor of why we had negative free cash flows for the first half of the year. We had roughly a little north of $620 million of capital usage in our operating working capital build just in the second quarter alone. That's not abnormal given the price trends and the volume trends we've seen. That's not all that surprising. I think what that sets up really well is a very constructive pivot toward the second half of the year where we expect a dramatic change in free cash flow profile in the back half of the year compared with the first half of the year.

That's driven in part by the working capital usage in the first half, but also capital spending was very, very high in the first half of the year. It really sets up a very nice, the market conditions along with our positioning in the market set up a very nice free cash flow outlook for the second half.

Tristan Gresser (Head of Steel Equity Research)

All right. That's clear. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you so much. As a reminder, to raise a question, you will press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you'd like to remove yourself from the question queue, you will press star followed by two. Our next question comes from Phil Gibbs from KeyBank. Phil, your line is now open.

Phil Gibbs (Director and Metals Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning.

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Good morning, Phil.

Phil Gibbs (Director and Metals Equity Research Analyst)

Sticking with the big beautiful bill question, Steve, are there any direct tax benefits to you all in the back half of the year for 2026?

Steve Laxton (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Hey, Phil. Actually, it's relatively limited. The construct of that bill is a little bit forward-facing, if you will, in that many of our projects are already underway. Some of the largest spend we've got, it does probably have the most pronounced effect for us in R&D spending and the ability to accelerate that into expensing that right up front rather than amortizing it over seven years. We'll have some very positive net present value benefits with that regard, but maybe not as large as you might expect given the capital spending that we're undertaking.

Phil Gibbs (Director and Metals Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. I have one follow-up just on the cost side. The slab piece, I think you buy foreign slab for CSI in that business on the West Coast. My baseline assumption is that business starts to see some higher cost in the third quarter. I think that's what you may have been alluding to on the earlier comments. Secondly, maybe give us a view of what you're seeing on just your own energy and electricity cost side and how those things are trending overall. Thank you.

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Yeah. Look, Phil, a few things. Yes, is the short answer. The tariffs on slabs have already been taken. Already are in effect. That change is already upon us. Again, Noah Hanners and the Sheet Group continue to do a great job. We have, not unlike our raw materials, the incredible flexibility to pivot and, again, self-supply if we chose. No, you want to just touch base on a few of the things that you and your teams are doing there to, again, mitigate some of this impact.

Noah Hanners (EVP)

Yeah. Just a couple of small things to add here. One, as Leon mentioned, and as you see in our raw material strategy, we have the ability to go source anywhere in the world and domestically. Our team exercises that ability, and they're really adept at finding us the lowest cost solution. While we do have some exposure to the Brazilian tariff, and you see a little bit of that compression in our outlook on third quarter is due to that tariff impact to Brazil, we also have the ability to self-supply. We're shipping their internal finished hot roll tons that CSI is then able to transform at very competitive cost. We are able to source from other international sources at very competitive cost. Our team's doing an awesome job managing the impact of the tariffs, and we're able to continue to serve the West Coast market profitably.

Steve Laxton (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Phil, just to round out your question on energy, energy costs are up a little bit year over year. They're down quarter over quarter, but for us, they're a little over $40 a ton in our steelmaking. In terms of outlook, we've put that relatively flat in the next couple of quarters going ahead.

Phil Gibbs (Director and Metals Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks very much. Good work.

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Thanks, Phil.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Mike Harris from Goldman Sachs. Mike, your line is now open.

Mike Harris (VP and Equity Analyst)

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. As we look at the steel products segment, what would you guys call out as potential gaps in that portfolio and maybe speak to some examples of what type verticals could bring materials and energies to the table?

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Yeah, Mike, look, again, as John had mentioned earlier, that group is comprised of about 12 different businesses from overhead doors or insulated metal panels or joists and deck or building systems. I would tell you, almost across the board, we're seeing either flat or improving conditions. I would tell you, there's really not a lot or there's no low spots to call out. There's some lag in terms of realized margins and net earnings that we're going to see flow through into Q3 and beyond. If we go back six, seven, eight years, that group as a whole represented about 15% of Nucor's overall net earnings. Today, that's pushing closer to 45-46% of our overall net earnings.

As you think about the core build-out of our steelmaking capacity, those dollars are going to continue to shift into our adjacencies, expand beyond, and although sit under this products bucket as well. That growth for Nucor is going to continue to grow in that area. I would tell you, we're excited about that. Our internal as well as the external forecast in almost every one of those segments are showing improving conditions.

Steve Laxton (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, Mike, maybe I'll add just a little bit to what Leon said there. If you go back to pre-COVID levels of EBITDA margins for the downstream segment, we were doing 9% or 10% EBITDA at that time. Now we're doing 16%-17%, depending on whether you want to talk first half or the quarter. I think that speaks to what Leon's really hitting at with where we will allocate capital going forward, which is kind of the heart of your question about what gaps are in the product suite. We continue to find ways to add to our portfolio that improve our margins, improve free cash flows, and offer a wider range of solutions in the marketplace and fit our business model. That's probably the most important aspect. We fundamentally create incremental value with these businesses when we add them and fold them into our portfolio.

We're not going to ever tell you the specific targets, but we will keep marching in the same direction that you have seen us do in the past.

Mike Harris (VP and Equity Analyst)

No, that's very helpful. I guess in the spirit of full disclosure, I was looking at slide number six where you talked about the evolution of the business. I was just trying to make sure I understood that future. Was that because you were just making the best better, or did you not feel you had enough to fight with already in it? It sounds like it was the former. That's really all I had, guys. I mean, you've answered a lot of my questions already, so I'll get back in the queue.

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Thank you, Mike. Appreciate that. Yes, your comment about the former is accurate. It is continuing to pour more arrows in our quiver to deliver more capabilities for our customer sets.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much. As a reminder to raise a question, we'll be staffed followed by one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Carlos De Arba from Morgan Stanley. Carlos, your line is now open.

Carlos De Alba (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just wanted to explore a little bit more the margin compression expected in the steel mills in the third quarter. Can you provide maybe some color by different products, sheet, plate, bars, beams? Are there any of those products that you would highlight where you expect the biggest margin compression? Maybe you see some margin expansion in some of them. That would be great.

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Yeah, Carlos, look, we touched on that a little bit a few moments ago. I think the potential for some pressure in flats, sheet in particular, could impact the earnings segment in Q3. That's why, again, we've highlighted that. We've touched on that. Part of that is what Noah just mentioned a few moments ago regarding the slabs coming in from Brazil. Again, we have some mitigation strategies already being worked and put in place, which could mean we self-supply there through our own sheet mills. We have a very adaptive capability set. That's one area. As we talk about that, yeah, I think there's a ton of upside as we think about the potential continued growth and what Brandenburg's doing in the Plate Group, what John and the team are doing in products, what Randy and his group are doing in our long products in rebar and MBQ.

We didn't talk about it on this call, but our beam mills in both Arkansas and Berkeley are performing at near historic highs. Their backlogs are at near historic highs. All of that backlog, like hundreds of thousands of tons, is actual orders. They don't produce anything for stock. Every one of those are direct, quotable and billable orders. That's going to continue to fuel Nucor's earnings power. There are a lot of segments that we're very excited about. The mega trends across the U.S., the startup next month of our towers and structures plant gives us incredible excitement to be able to move into that market. By early spring, the second plant and late next year, the third. There are a number of different elements here that our investment strategy that we deliberately and focused on five years ago are beginning to pay those dividends today.

The investments that are just beginning to start up now are going to continue to pay for the next 20, 30, 40 years.

Carlos De Alba (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you, Leon. Maybe just to, if we are zooming in on bars and maybe beams. On bars, you mentioned the price increases in MBQ and rebar. Would you expect margin expansion in the bar business and maybe in the beams as well?

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

I'll touch on beams and then let Randy Spicer, our EVP over our bar products, touch on. Look, as we think about the opportunity for longs, man, it's significant. Again, it's an area we've played in for a long time. We have a great customer base there. We have an incredible market share as well in beams. That mill is run at 70-ish % of capacity for a long time, Carlos. We have a lot of opportunity and upside there. At the same time, it is one of the strongest profit generators in the entire company and has been consistently for a long period of time. We couldn't be more excited about the work that they're doing, how they look to continue to expand those margins. Again, yes, I do think there's opportunity in the beam side. Randy, why don't you touch on the longs and bar and MBQ?

Randy Spicer (EVP)

Yeah. Thank you, Leon, Carlos. Thank you for the question. Definitely the same, I would say, on the bar side. The momentum is very strong. We have continued to see robust order entry across all of our regions. As we start looking in the key end markets, as we've talked about several on the call. The infrastructure work, again, continued big projects with the chip plant. Warehouses and data centers. The support that we get from our downstream businesses has been just tremendous. When you look at the macro signals, the diagonal momentum index is showing up 20%. On a year, which again is letting us know there are even more projects that are coming into the planning phases. So when we look at our long products, our backlogs are at multi-year highs and our lead times continue to extend. We are very confident in a very strong second half.

Carlos De Alba (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you very much. All the best.

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Thanks, Carlos.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Alex Hacking from Citi. Alex, your line is now open.

Alex Hacking (Director and Head of Americas Metals and Mining Sector)

Yeah, good morning, Leon and team. Apologize, I missed the first couple of minutes of the call, but just wanted to check the CapEx guidance is unchanged at $3 billion, and therefore we should expect a pretty significant decline in 2H. And then just as a follow-up, if I look at slide 5, all the projects nearing completion, beyond that, you've got the sheet mill, you've got the Utah towers, the Pacific Northwest rebar mill. Is there anything else that I'm missing that's kind of coming beyond what's on slide 5? Thanks.

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Yeah, Alex, it was a riveting couple of minutes, and we'll catch you up very quickly. Yeah, you touched on most of them. A couple that I would add to that list are two galvanizing lines at Crawfordsville, Indiana, as well as Nucor Berkeley that will come online next year. The third towers plant in Utah as well next year. Again, we're starting to see the contributions from the investments that were made several years ago, like Brandenburg, Gallatin, and now Kingman and Lexington are in startup mode now, commissioning's done. Now their quest is to ramp those facilities up, serving our customer base to continue to generate stronger, sustainable, less volatile earnings for our shareholders and for the future. Yeah, as we see that pent-up earnings power is starting to flow through and will continue over the next couple of years.

Those were the couple I would add that you didn't call out.

Dave Sumoski (COO)

Hey, Alex, this is Dave Smolsky. Also at CSI, Galvanizing, late 2027 startup.

Steve Laxton (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Alex, your math exercise is correct. We do expect lower capital spending in the second half of the year. Combined with a little bit less working capital use, we should see a pronounced change in free cash flow in the back half compared with the first half of the year.

Alex Hacking (Director and Head of Americas Metals and Mining Sector)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much. We currently have no further questions in the queue, so I'd like to hand back to Leon Topalian for any further remarks.

Leon Topalian (Chair, President and CEO)

Thank you for joining us again today. I would like to thank our Nucor team for delivering an incredible first half of the year regarding safety, as well as our solid financial performance. I would like to thank our customers for the trust that you place in us with each and every order. Finally, thank you to our investors for the trust that you place in us with your valuable shareholder capital. Thank you for your interest in Nucor and have a great day.

Operator (participant)

As we conclude today's call, we'd like to thank everyone for joining. You may disconnect your lines.