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Post Holdings, Inc. (POST)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 FY2025 delivered stable topline and margin expansion: net sales $1.97B, gross margin 30.1%, GAAP diluted EPS $1.78, Adjusted EBITDA $369.9M .
  • Management raised FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.42–$1.46B (from $1.41–$1.46B); Q2 faces a temporary Foodservice cost headwind of $30–$50M from avian influenza with recovery assumed in 2H FY2025 .
  • Segment mix: Foodservice strength (+8.7% sales; +10.4% Adj. EBITDA), while Refrigerated Retail softness persisted; PCB Adj. EBITDA grew despite pet volume rationalization; Weetabix down on reduced promotions and portfolio simplification .
  • Capital allocation catalyst: Post repurchased 1.6M shares in Q1 and 1.0M more post-quarter; board approved a new $500M repurchase authorization effective Feb 10, 2025; leverage remains ~4.3x per call .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Foodservice delivered solid growth: net sales +8.7% to $616.6M; volumes +2.8%; Adj. EBITDA +10.4% to $116.8M; distribution gains in eggs and potatoes and continued AI pricing adders supported results .
  • PCB margins improved: segment Adj. EBITDA +7.9% to $204.8M on manufacturing and cost performance, even as pet volumes declined due to deliberate rationalization and pricing actions .
  • Execution resilience: “Fiscal ’25 is off to a good start… results were driven by cost management and benefits from our diversified portfolio” (COO) and successful ERP conversions at PCB Pet and Weetabix, mitigating operational risk .

What Went Wrong

  • Refrigerated Retail weak: net sales -5.1% to $266.6M; volumes -4.4%; Adj. EBITDA -22.4% to $41.6M on lower side dish volumes and cost ahead of pricing in sausage and eggs .
  • Weetabix volume pressure: underlying volumes -11.6% (ex-Deeside) due to planned lower promotional activity, strategic exits of low-performing products, and category declines; Adj. EBITDA -8.5% to $28.0M .
  • Near‑term Foodservice risk: “We estimate the cost before pricing impact on our fiscal second quarter will be a headwind in the range of $30 million to $50 million,” with recovery expected later in FY2025 (COO) .

Financial Results

Sequential Net Sales and Adjusted EBITDA

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Sales ($USD Billions)$1.90 $2.010 $1.975
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$350.0 $348.7 $369.9

EPS

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025
Diluted EPS ($)$1.28 $1.78
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$1.53 $1.73

Year-over-Year (Q1)

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Net Sales ($USD Billions)$1.966 $1.975
Gross Margin %29.1% 30.1%
Net Earnings ($USD Millions)$88.1 $113.3
Diluted EPS ($)$1.35 $1.78
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$1.69 $1.73
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$359.5 $369.9
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %18.3% 18.7%
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$93.6 $171.4

Segment Net Sales

Segment Net Sales ($USD Millions)Q1 2024Q1 2025
Post Consumer Brands988.6 963.9
Weetabix129.1 127.6
Foodservice567.1 616.6
Refrigerated Retail280.9 266.6
Corporate/Eliminations0.2 —

Segment Adjusted EBITDA

Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)Q1 2024Q1 2025
Post Consumer Brands189.8 204.8
Weetabix30.6 28.0
Foodservice105.8 116.8
Refrigerated Retail53.6 41.6
Corporate/Other(20.3) (21.3)
Total359.5 369.9

KPIs

KPI (YoY change unless noted)Q4 2024Q1 2025
Foodservice volumes+3.6% +2.8%
Refrigerated Retail volumes+0.7% (4.4%)
Weetabix volumes (ex-Deeside)(6.5%) (11.6%)
PCB volumes (ex-Perfection)(6.3%) (8.8%)
Refrigerated Retail ProductQ1 2025 Volume Change
All(4.4%)
Side dishes(4.4%)
Egg(4.5%)
Cheese(12.3%)
Sausage+3.5%

Notes:

  • Non-GAAP adjustments lowered Adjusted net earnings to $111.9M vs GAAP $113.3M; Adjusted diluted EPS $1.73 vs $1.78 GAAP, reflecting items like swap gains/losses and integration costs .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP)FY 2025$1,410–$1,460M $1,420–$1,460M Raised bottom end $10M
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025$380–$420M $380–$420M Maintained
Foodservice Q2 AI cost before pricing impactQ2 FY 2025n/a$30–$50M headwind vs Q1 New assumption
Share Repurchase AuthorizationEffective Feb 10, 2025Existing $500M (remaining $200.2M, canceled Feb 9) New $500M authorization New authorization

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Q-2)Q4 2024 (Q-1)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
ERP conversionsBuilt inventory ahead; Phase 1 completed; Phase 2 planned Lancaster plant closure completed; exit Smucker TSA; ERP live progress ERP conversions at PCB Pet and Weetabix executed successfully Risk reduced; focus shifts to marketing and cost-out
Avian influenza (AI)Foodservice run-rate tempered; Q4 EBITDA guide ~$100M due to costs ahead of pricing Elevated egg costs ahead of pricing; Foodservice Adj. EBITDA down YoY New outbreaks at contracted farms; Q2 headwind $30–$50M; recovery expected in balance of FY Near-term headwind, recovery in 2H FY2025
RTD shakesRamp slower than expected; progress made Output below expectations; run-rate targeted for 2H FY2025 Contribution minimal; improvement slower than desired Gradual improvement; still below plan
Pet brands & volumesPremium brands stabilizing; strong manufacturing Nutrish relaunch kicks off early CY25 Nutrish relaunch underway in Q2; PCB volumes -13% YoY; decomposition of drag and recovery path Innovation rolling out; volumes expected to improve into FY2026
Cereal categoryCategory down ~4.1%; normalization expected to -1% to -2% Category decline slowed to -2.6% PCB cereal volumes -2.3%; category declines Stabilizing toward historical decline rates
Macro/tariffsTransitional consumer environment; inflation cooling More normalized operating environment expected New administration policy/tariff uncertainty noted Uncertainty persists; cautious stance
M&A/capital allocationActive pipeline; new buyback authorization; strong cash flow Deep pipeline; disciplined; share repurchases Opportunistic M&A; repurchased 2.6M shares since FY start; leverage neutral ~4.3x Sustained activity; buybacks continue

Management Commentary

  • “Fiscal ’25 is off to a good start… strong Q1 financial results were driven by cost management and benefits we continue to see from our diversified portfolio,” and ERP conversions at PCB Pet and Weetabix were executed successfully (COO) .
  • “We estimate the cost before pricing impact on our fiscal second quarter will be a headwind in the range of $30 million to $50 million… we remain confident in our ability to recover any second quarter cost before pricing impact in the balance of the fiscal year” (COO) .
  • “Our value proposition in both eggs and potatoes is to take labor out of the system… [customers] can drive more efficiency and better performance… by eliminating the manual activities” (COO) .
  • Capital allocation: “We bought back over 4% of our shares while keeping our net leverage flat… pipeline of potential M&A transactions… will come down to valuation” (COO/CFO) .
  • PCB pet: “Down 13% would be… we expect the balance of ’25 to be down more like 7–9… then [2–3]% consumption drag into ’26 with innovation” (CFO) .

Q&A Highlights

  • M&A capacity remains strong despite buybacks; Post is positioned for both large and small deals given leverage and cash flow; synergy deals remain core focus (COO) .
  • Foodservice demand mix: liquid vs shell egg dynamics favor conversion to liquid; precooked eggs continue to outgrow as labor-saving solutions; supply constraints limit near-term liquid conversion opportunity (COO) .
  • Guidance raised bottom end reflects strong Q1 and ERP risk reduction; high end held due to AI, tariffs, and softer volumes risk (COO) .
  • Pet strategy: detailed volume headwind buckets (rationalization, inventory timing, consumption); phased Nutrish relaunch and innovation to drive improvement into FY2026 (CFO) .
  • CapEx phasing: Q1 elevated vs run-rate due to project timing; FY2025 range remains appropriate (CFO) .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve Wall Street consensus estimates (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) via S&P Global but data was unavailable at this time due to request limits. As a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses for Q1 FY2025 against consensus. Expect near-term estimate revisions to reflect: lower Q2 Foodservice from AI ($30–$50M headwind) and raised FY2025 Adj. EBITDA bottom end to $1.42B (recovery assumed in 2H) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quality print: modest YoY net sales growth (+0.4%), margin expansion (gross +100bps YoY), GAAP EPS +32% YoY, and Adj. EBITDA +2.9% YoY; non-GAAP adjustments modestly reduced Adjusted EPS vs GAAP .
  • Foodservice fundamentals resilient; distribution gains and value-added mix underpin double-digit Adj. EBITDA growth even as AI introduces Q2 noise; monitor pricing adders extension timing (April+) .
  • Refrigerated Retail remains the laggard; focus is on sides growth and cost discipline to improve profitability trajectory .
  • PCB’s strategy is margin-first: pet rationalization and price elasticity depress volumes near term, but manufacturing efficiencies and innovation (Nutrish relaunch) aim to stabilize and improve into FY2026 .
  • Bold capital allocation: significant buybacks plus new $500M authorization provide downside support; opportunistic M&A remains on the table given robust pipeline and disciplined valuation .
  • Near-term trading implication: expect Q2 volatility from AI; H2 recovery is the key narrative—position around potential extension of pricing adders and supply normalization .
  • Medium-term thesis: diversified portfolio, sustained Foodservice growth (labor-saving value proposition), PCB network optimization, and Weetabix cost-out/marketing ramp should support algorithmic EBITDA growth alongside continued FCF generation .