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    REGENCY CENTERS (REG)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 7, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$72.43Last close (Oct 29, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$72.41Open (Oct 30, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-0.02(-0.03%)
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +9%

    Primarily driven by the acquisition of UBP and rent escalations at existing properties, increasing revenue to $360.266 million. Market demand remains favorable, though some dispositions partially offset this growth.

    Lease Income

    +9%

    Boosted by higher base rents, positive rental spreads, and acquisitions, including UBP. Company-specific leasing initiatives and redevelopment completions also contributed to this increase.

    Other Property Income

    +69%

    Up due to an increase in settlements of approximately $1.2 million, reflecting favorable resolution of tenant-related agreements. This highlights the company’s proactive management of ancillary income opportunities.

    Net Income

    +12%

    Rose to $103.576 million, driven by increased leasing income, gain on sale of real estate, and resilient tenant performance. Elevated interest expense from higher debt balances was partially offset by new interest income streams.

    EPS (Diluted)

    +10%

    Improved to $0.54, reflecting stronger profitability and the beneficial impact of higher Net Income. Some share repurchases also supported EPS growth, indicating confidence in the company’s prospects.

    D&A

    +15%

    Increased by $32.7 million, largely due to the UBP acquisition and additional depreciable assets from other property acquisitions. Early tenant move-outs in certain centers also contributed to higher amortization.

    Interest Expense

    +21%

    Higher outstanding debt following new public debt issuance in January 2024 and loans assumed through the UBP acquisition drove interest costs up by $6.2 million. This was partly offset by a $3.6 million rise in interest income from short-term investments, reflecting broader market rate conditions.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Same-Property NOI Growth

    FY 2024

    2.25%–2.75%

    3.5%

    raised

    Core Operating Earnings Growth

    FY 2024

    4% year-over-year

    5% year-over-year

    raised

    Credit Loss Range

    FY 2024

    no prior guidance

    50–75 basis points

    no prior guidance

    Free Cash Flow

    FY 2024

    no prior guidance

    $160 million

    no prior guidance

    Development & Redevelopment Starts

    FY 2024

    $250 million

    $200 million–$250 million

    no change

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Consistent focus on occupancy rates approaching or at peak levels

    Q2 2024: Occupancy at 97.2%, aiming for 98.5%. Q1 2024: 95.8% same-property leased rate. Q4 2023: Close to peak occupancy with record shop lease rates.

    Record shop occupancy of 93.7% and ongoing efforts to reach 98.5% anchor occupancy, with strong tenant demand supporting further improvement.

    Consistently high and improving. Anchor occupancy nearing 98.5%.

    Recurring same-property NOI growth guidance for 2024 and 2025 with evolving expectations

    Q2 2024: Raised to 2.25–2.75%. Q1 2024: 2–2.5% with an acceleration in 2025. Q4 2023: 2–2.5% with upside expected in 2025.

    Raised 2024 guidance to 3.5% and expect similar levels in 2025, driven by accelerated rent commencements and high retention.

    Guidance has steadily increased, pointing to sustained growth.

    Emergence of SNO pipeline details (strong in Q2, compression noted in Q3)

    Q2 2024: Strong pipeline at 350 bps ($49M), major impact in late 2024–2025. Q1 2024: $50M pipeline, no compression mentioned. Q4 2023: General references, no specific Q2/Q3 detail.

    SNO pipeline remains robust ($50M in base rent). Observed compression from accelerated commencements but replenished with new signings.

    New reference to compression in Q3 after a strong Q2.

    Redevelopment and development pipeline as a long-term growth driver

    Q2 2024: $580M in-process, 90% leased. Q1 2024: $0.5B in-process, 9% blended return. Q4 2023: $250M of starts in 2023, aiming for $1B+ over five years.

    Started $220M+ in new projects YTD with yields >10%. Total in-process $600M, 90% leased. Seen as major NOI contributor.

    Consistently emphasized as a key, long-term earnings driver.

    Tenant credit risk, including bankruptcy concerns and higher credit loss assumptions

    Q2 2024: Minimal exposure to recent bankruptcies. Q1 2024: Not explicitly addressed. Q4 2023: Planned 75–100 bps credit loss, anchor move-outs due to bankruptcies.

    Lower than planned credit loss (50–75 bps vs. prior 75–100), with improved bankruptcy outcomes.

    Credit environment improved in Q3; original concerns moderated.

    Balance sheet leverage targets (5x to 5.5x) highlighted in Q3

    Q2 2024: Expect near midpoint of 5x–5.5x. Q1 2024: Near low end. Q4 2023: Also near low end, strong liquidity.

    Stays within 5x–5.5x net debt/EBITDA, comfortable using capacity for opportunities. Recent $325M bond issuance at 5.1%.

    Maintained consistently, using balance sheet capacity strategically.

    Urstadt Biddle acquisition mentioned in Q4 but not referenced in subsequent calls

    Q2 2024: Brief mention related to Northeast activity. Q1 2024: On plan, 50 lease signings, 1.5 points of accretion. Q4 2023: Integration complete, aligned with Regency’s strategy.

    Integrated into portfolio, performing slightly above plan, will be added to same-store metrics in Q1 2025. Leasing progress and minor redevelopment opportunities.

    Fully integrated, expected to boost same-store from Q1 2025 onward.

    Rising operating expenses, capital expenditures, and inflation pressure on margins

    Q2 2024: No major issues raised. Q1 2024: Not specifically addressed. Q4 2023: 7% OpEx growth but mostly passed through to tenants.

    No direct mention in Q3. Management noted effective expense recovery and leasing spreads offsetting cost pressures.

    Not highlighted in Q3; has been manageable in previous periods.

    Strategic recapturing and re-tenanting efforts causing short-term occupancy disruptions

    Q2 2024: Not detailed. Q1 2024: Intentional recapturing (e.g., Walmart) for better tenants. Q4 2023: Anchor recaptures for new anchors (e.g. Target), short-term occupancy drop.

    Not referenced in Q3.

    Mentioned in Q1 and Q4; absent in Q2 and Q3.

    Continued rent growth momentum and strong leasing demand

    Q2 2024: Blended cash spreads >9%, strong pipeline. Q1 2024: 8% blended spreads, record SNO. Q4 2023: 10% annual rent spread, high lease volume.

    Record shop occupancy at 93.7%, GAAP rent spreads 20%, robust tenant interest.

    Consistently robust, supporting bullish sentiment on growth.

    1. Same-Store NOI Growth
      Q: What's driving same-store NOI growth to 3.5%?
      A: The acceleration to 3.5% same-store NOI growth is due to higher commenced occupancy and accelerated rent commencements from our SNO pipeline, leading to increased recoveries. This growth is sustainable and serves as a launching point into 2025.

    2. Capital Deployment and Funding
      Q: Will you increase acquisitions, and how will you fund them?
      A: We have capacity to pursue acquisitions that meet our criteria, using balance sheet capacity and various capital sources, including partnerships like the recent $150 million equity commitment from Oregon. We'll remain disciplined in capital allocation, considering share repurchases and equity issuance when appropriate.

    3. Leverage and Financing Plans
      Q: What's your appetite for leveraging up to fund growth?
      A: We're comfortable operating between 5x and 5.5x debt-to-EBITDA. We'll utilize balance sheet capacity when we see compelling opportunities, potentially taking leverage to the upper end of our range, but remain committed to operating within our target leverage despite interest rate changes.

    4. Bad Debt and Credit Losses
      Q: Are you expecting normalization in bad debt next year?
      A: Yes, we plan for a return to historical average bad debt expense and credit loss next year, about 75 to 100 basis points. Despite retailer bankruptcies, our portfolio has minimal exposure due to our focus on quality tenants.

    5. Impact of UBP Acquisition
      Q: How will UBP assets affect growth in 2025?
      A: UBP assets will enter our same-store pool in Q1 next year, contributing to the 3.5% growth outlook for 2025. They're performing as expected, with opportunities for leasing gains, exemplified by Danbury Square improving from 50% to 96% leased.

    6. Tenant Demand and Occupancy
      Q: How is tenant demand affecting future occupancy?
      A: Tenant demand remains strong, with shop leasing reaching a record 93.7%. We expect to continue increasing both shop and anchor occupancy, pushing percent leased higher over the next 12 to 24 months.

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