Transocean - Q2 2024
August 1, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's second quarter 2024 Transocean earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, you will have an opportunity to ask questions during the question-and-answer session. You may register to ask a question at any time by pressing the star and one on your telephone keypad. Please note, this call is being recorded and I will be standing by should you need any assistance. It is now my pleasure to turn the program over to Alison Johnson, Director of Investor Relations.
Alison Johnson (Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Brittany. Good morning, and welcome to Transocean's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. A copy of our press release covering financial results, along with supporting statements and schedules, including reconciliations and disclosures regarding non-GAAP financial measures, is available on our website at deepwater.com. Joining me on this morning's call are Jeremy Thigpen, Chief Executive Officer; Keelan Adamson, President and Chief Operating Officer; Thad Vayda, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Roddie Mackenzie, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer. During the course of this call, Transocean management may make certain forward-looking statements regarding various matters related to our business and company that are not historical facts. Such statements are based upon current expectations and certain assumptions, and therefore, are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially.
Please refer to our SEC filings for forward-looking statements and for more information regarding certain risks and uncertainties that could impact our future results. Also, please note that the company undertakes no duty to update or revise forward-looking statements. Following Jeremy, Keelan, and Thad's prepared comments, we will conduct a question-and-answer session with our team. During this time, to give more participants an opportunity to speak, please limit yourself to one initial question and one follow-up. Thank you very much. I'll now turn the call over to Jeremy.
Jeremy Thigpen (CEO)
Thank you, Alison, and welcome to our employees, customers, investors, and analysts participating on today's call. As reported in yesterday's earnings release, for the second quarter 2024, Transocean delivered adjusted EBITDA of $284 million on $861 million of contract drilling revenues, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 33%. Needless to say, I'm very proud of our team's continued commitment and diligence. Over the past several quarters, the Transocean team worked together to overcome numerous challenges as we mobilized nearly 40% of our active fleet across multiple jurisdictions worldwide, all the while maintaining the highest standard of safety, reliability, and efficiency. This resolve allowed us to once again achieve superior uptime performance for our customers, driving revenue efficiency of approximately 97% in the quarter.
Alison Johnson (Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you to each and every member of the Transocean team for what you do day in and day out. Largely due to this consistent, reliable operational performance and the effort, knowledge, and tenacity of our marketing and contracts team, with strong support from our legal team, we enjoyed an incredibly exciting past few weeks, culminating with the announcement of extensive contracting activity on our fleet, particularly with respect to our fleet in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. First, Beacon Offshore Energy awarded the Deepwater Atlas a two-well contract at an industry-leading rate of $580,000 per day, including additional services. The estimated 150-day contract is expected to commence in direct continuation of the contract we received in April and includes two contingent 45-day, 20K completions at a rate of $650,000 per day.
As a reminder, the contract that was awarded in April consists of four wells at a rate of $505,000 per day, including additional services. The program also provides for three contingent completions for up to a combined 120 days at that same rate. Next, as we disclosed yesterday, BP awarded the Deepwater Invictus a 3-year contract at a rate of $485,000 per day, which also includes up to two years of options at mutually agreed upon rates, which will likely be determined at some point in 2025. The contract is expected to commence in the first quarter of 2025.
Of note, as the Invictus is now solidly booked throughout the period of time in which it was previously assigned to a three-year contract for work in Mexico, that contract will now be reassigned at our election, to one of the remaining rigs in a pool of similarly capable rigs, including the Deepwater Thalassa, Deepwater Proteus, Deepwater Conqueror, and Deepwater Asgard. Additionally, the Invictus was also awarded a 40-day contract in direct continuation of its current program at an undisclosed rate, enabling us to begin filling gaps, mitigating, and hopefully ultimately eliminating white space.
Also, since our fleet status report update last week, we have secured a letter of intent for one of our rigs in the Gulf of Mexico that had some availability and expect to add additional wells to the other rig in the Gulf of Mexico that has availability in the very near future, effectively taking them off the market for other near-term opportunities. We will update you on our progress as appropriate. Lastly, for the U.S. Gulf, the Deepwater Asgard received a one-year contract extension with Hess at a rate of $515,000 per day, including additional services. In Brazil, Petrobras exercised a 279-day priced option on the Deepwater Mykonos at a rate of $366,000 per day.
As a reminder, the option pricing for this campaign was submitted in May of 2022, which explains why this day rate, while still healthy, represents a fairly meaningful discount to current leading-edge rates. Importantly, the firm duration now extends through October 2025 and generates meaningful cash flow, which can aid our deleveraging efforts. Moving to the harsh environment fleet. In Norway, the Transocean Norge was awarded a three-well extension with Wintershall Dea at a current rate of $517,000 per day, extending the rig's firm duration into the second quarter of 2028. It was this combination of day rate and term that provided the impetus to execute our strategy to acquire the remaining balance of this unique high-specification asset.
Also in Norway, the Transocean Spitsbergen was awarded a three-well extension with Equinor at a current rate of $483,000 per day. The program is expected to commence in direct continuation of the rig's fixed-price option and keeps the rig off the market through the first quarter of 2026. In Australia, Woodside exercised a one-well option on the Transocean Endurance at a rate of $390,000 per day. The firm period now extends through mid-2025, and with the remaining options, the rig is expected to remain in Australia until at least the second quarter of 2026.
With these contracts, our working fleet is more than 90% committed through the end of 2025, and based upon advanced discussions with our customers and reflecting LOIs and strong verbal commitments, we believe that aside from some small activity gaps which could arise in our customer drilling programs, our fleet that is currently working could soon be completely booked well into 2026. As such, our customers may soon need to consider financing the reactivation of cold-stacked assets to meet their future program requirements. We are certainly pleased with these new contract awards, some of which have been a long time in the making, as they demonstrate materially increasing day rates and lengthening terms, which combined, reinforce our confidence in the strength and longevity of the offshore drilling market.
As discussed on previous calls, we expect deepwater prospects to become an even more important source of the world for the next several years, and we're not alone in this expectation. According to Rystad Energy, the equivalent of 56 million barrels per day of newly discovered oil will be required to satisfy global oil consumption by 2030, and over 16% of this incremental supply is expected to come from deepwater production. Accordingly, global offshore greenfield exploration and production investments are projected to grow to $110 billion in 2027. That's up from $48 billion in 2024, a 129% increase, with approximately half of this increase expected to be driven by activity in South America and Africa. I'll now hand it over to Keelan to talk about the regions in our fleet.
Keelan Adamson (President and COO)
Thanks, Jeremy, and good morning, everyone. As Jeremy mentioned, many of the programs for which we are in discussions with our customers have commencement dates well into the future. Based on what we see today, we expect the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to remain in balance for the next several quarters, with a number of gap-filler type programs still to be awarded. Looking forward, our customers remain committed to developing their existing deepwater assets and adding to their portfolios. Our customers continue to move forward with their 20K development plans, and as an example, on Tuesday, BP announced taking their final investment decision on the Kaskida project, with nearby Tiber expected in 2025.
Alison Johnson (Director of Investor Relations)
This investment decision sets an important development in motion, unlocks the potential future development of 10 billion barrels of discovered resources in place across the Kaskida and Tiber catchment areas, and marks another data point of additional 20K opportunities being sanctioned by our customer base. In 2018, Transocean took the strategic decision to upgrade the hookload, drilling, completions, and 20K capability on both of the new eighth-generation drill ships, the Deepwater Atlas and Deepwater Titan, to best position these rigs for the anticipated Gulf of Mexico 20K programs. As a result, they are effectively purpose-built for our customers' 20K operations, and their design will facilitate efficiencies in well delivery, not achievable from the highest specification seventh-generation rigs. As such, we believe we are well qualified for any of the multiple 20K opportunities currently being discussed in the Gulf of Mexico.
Moving to Brazil, we expect Petrobras' Roncador tender will be awarded in the next few months, and the Sepia tender thereafter for a combined 5-rig awards. Also, over the last two weeks, Petrobras issued a new tender for 4 rigs, which is consistent with our expectation that they will continually roll over their existing fleet to support production targets that require at least 30 operational floaters through 2030. While we expect these rigs to be largely renewals of floaters already in country, we do believe an incremental rig or two could mobilize to the Brazilian market to satisfy this demand. In West Africa, we expect substantial rig demand beginning in early 2025. Nigeria is expected to require 4 rigs, 2 more than are currently in the region. In Angola, there are 7 floaters operating, and we expect this level of demand to be sustained.
Ghana, Ivory Coast, and Namibia could also add to the rig demand in 2025 and 2026, with 4 programs expected to commence in this timeframe. If all programs proceed as expected, 3 drill ships could be required from outside of these countries. We believe it is likely the entire West Africa region will require at least 4 additional deepwater rigs from 2026 onwards, which could possibly require the reactivation of some currently cold-stacked assets. Lastly, for the ultra-deepwater markets, in India, we anticipate the award of Reliance's tender in the coming weeks and continue... The KG1 is well placed to secure this program. Moving now to the high-specification, harsh environment market. Assuming outstanding options are exercised, the Transocean fleet is effectively sold out through 2025. Looking ahead, we believe Norway will be undersupplied by 2 rigs in 2026.
Our recent fixtures in Norway underscore the strength of that market as our customers are contracting rigs like the Transocean Norge up to four years in advance. Regarding the Norge, as you know, in June, we successfully completed a transaction to acquire the 7% outstanding in the joint venture that owned the rig. It was always our intention to eventually own the rig outright, in line with our asset strategy, as it, as it is one of the most capable harsh environment semi-submersibles in... Additionally, we have dedicated substantial resources to automating drill floor pipe handling operations on the rig, and are very pleased with the progress we have achieved to date. We will continue to pursue opportunities for automation in our fleet, with the ultimate goal of driving significant improvement in safety and operational performance, while simultaneously reducing our carbon footprint.
Before I pass the mic, I'd like to strongly reiterate Jeremy's gratitude to the entire Transocean team, and specifically recognize our people for the tremendous efforts in mobilizing and preparing the Deepwater Aquila for her maiden contract in Brazil. As a result of the significant collaboration across the organization, we commenced operations in late June, nearly a week ahead of schedule. In addition to the commencement of the Aquila's contract with Petrobras, during the last six months, we have relocated and commenced operations on the Transocean Endurance, Transocean Equinox in Australia, reactivated and commenced operations on the Deepwater Orion in Brazil, and recommenced operations on the KG1 in India. These are all examples of our extensive experience to reliably bring new-build deepwater market, reactivating warm stacked assets, and relocating our active rigs to different geographic markets and customers safely and efficiently. I'll now hand the call back to Jeremy.
Jeremy Thigpen (CEO)
Thanks, Keelan. The offshore drilling industry is in its best condition since 2014. As we discussed on our first quarter 2024 earnings call, the average contract duration for new ultra-deepwater fixtures has remained above 500 days for the last two years. Concurrently, as mentioned earlier, day rates have continued to increase. These two indisputable data points define the positive investment thesis for the industry, and particularly for Transocean. Looking specifically at Transocean's fleet, in 2022, our average new contract fixture was approximately $359,000 per day. In 2024 to date, our average is $504,000 per day, a 40% increase.
Alison Johnson (Director of Investor Relations)
While we, like our competitors, are certainly benefiting from positive market dynamics, the industry-leading capability of our assets and the consistently safe, reliable, and efficient performance we provide to our customers, combined with our deep understanding of the market, enable us to differentiate ourselves from our peers, which you can see in our leading-edge day rates and our industry-leading $8.64 billion backlog that we announced with our recent fleet status report, which, by the way, excludes the $531 million backlog associated with the BP contract we announced yesterday. As we have reiterated for the past several quarters, we continue to be highly encouraged by the conversations with our customers and are certainly excited by the momentum created by our recent fixtures.
As many of you will remember, less than nine months ago, the entire offshore drilling community pressed on the timing for the first contract to exceed $500,000 per day. Now we are seeing rates in the $500,000s, more often than not, fixed across the entire space, with Transocean once again leading the way with ever-improving fixtures for both 15K and 20K work. And while we will always endeavor to identify and seize the appropriate opportunities to test day rates, we also recognize and appreciate the value of term and adding to our industry-leading backlog, providing us clear visibility to future cash flows. As such, Transocean will continue to strategically manage its portfolio of assets, striking the appropriate balance between day rate and term to maximize shareholder value.
In closing, we continue to believe the underlying fundamentals support a multi-year growth cycle for our assets and services. Given our backlog and the visibility it provides to future cash flows, along with a future reduction in CapEx requirements, as our new builds are now all out of yards and on contract, we expect our unlevered free cash flow to continue incrementally increasing each quarter for the next several quarters, which can enable us to delever our balance sheet and ultimately position us to design, communicate, and implement a sustainable strategy to make distributions or otherwise return value to our shareholders. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Thad to discuss our financial results.
Thad Vayda (EVP and CFO)
Thank you, Jeremy, and good day to everyone. As is our practice, during today's call, I will briefly recap our second quarter results, provide guidance for the third quarter, and conclude with an update on our expectations for the full year of 2024. As reported in our press release, for the second quarter, we reported a net loss attributable to controlling interest of $123 million, or a loss of $0.15 per diluted share. During the quarter, we generated EBITDA of $284 million, and cash flow from operations of approximately $133 million. Positive free cash flow of $49 million in the second quarter reflects the $133 million of operating cash flow, net of $84 million of capital expenditures.
Alison Johnson (Director of Investor Relations)
Capital expenditures for the quarter included $53 million related to the new build Deepwater Aquila, with a balance associated with various other projects across the fleet. During the second quarter, we delivered contract drilling revenues of $861 million at an average daily revenue of $1,000. Contract drilling revenues are slightly below our guidance, mainly due to the prolonged 15K psi drilling operations of the Deepwater Atlas, which delayed the start of the rig's higher 20K psi day rate. Recall that the rig's 15K psi operating day rate, which was negotiated in the second quarter, is about $268,000 per day. The 20K psi day rate is $455,000 per day. The customer delayed commencement of the KG1 in India also adversely affected our contract drilling revenue.
These factors were partially offset by higher fleet revenue efficiency, 96.9%, and the commencement of the Deepwater Aquila in Brazil on June 25th, about a week earlier than anticipated. Operating and maintenance expense in the second quarter was $534 million. This is below our guidance, primarily due to the delay of in-service maintenance in the active fleet and the favorable resolution of old contingencies. G&A expense in the second quarter is $59 million, generally in line with our guidance. We ended the second quarter with total liquidity of approximately $1.5 billion, including unrestricted cash and cash equivalents of $475 million, about $400 million of restricted cash, $360 million of which is reserved for debt service, and $576 million of capacity from our undrawn revolving credit facility.
I will now update you on our expectations for our financial performance for the third quarter and full year 2024. As always, our guidance excludes speculative reactivations and upgrades. For the third quarter, we expect contract drilling revenues to approximate $940 million, based upon an average fleet-wide revenue efficiency of 96.5%, which, as you know, can vary based upon uptime performance, weather, and other factors. This estimate includes approximately $55 million of additional services and reimbursable expenses. Please recall that the additional services and customer reimbursables generally carry low single-digit margins. The sequential increase in revenue is mainly due to, first, a full quarter of activity for the Deepwater Aquila following commencement of the rig's initial contract in Brazil. Second, higher utilization on the KG2, KG1, and Transocean Equinox, which had contract preparation activities in the second quarter.
And lastly, a higher contractual day rate for the Deepwater Atlas as the rig started 20K psi operation on July 7th. We expect third quarter O&M expense to be approximately $610 million. The quarter-over-quarter increase is primarily due to the changes in activity that I just reviewed, an increase of in-service maintenance costs, some of which is deferred from the second quarter, and the aforementioned resolution of various contingencies that have no comparable activity in the third quarter. These are partially offset by the absence in the second quarter of costs paid to the joint venture that owned the Transocean Norge. As you would expect, these were eliminated as a result of the acquisition of the outstanding interest in the entity. We expect G&A for the third quarter to be approximately $50 million.
This quarter-over-quarter decrease is primarily related to lower personnel costs and professional fees. Net interest expense for the third quarter is forecast to be approximately $145 million. Capital expenditures and cash taxes are expected to be approximately $35 million and $10 million, respectively. For the full year 2024, our revenue guidance of approximately $3.6 billion is unchanged at this time. This guidance includes approximately $215 million of additional services and reimbursable expenses, of which about $105 million were realized in the first half of the year. Full year O&M expense is still expected to be between $2.2 billion and $2.3 billion. Finally, full year G&A costs are expected to be around $215 million.
Our projected liquidity at year-end 2024 is unchanged from last quarter at approximately $1.4 billion, which includes the full $576 million capacity of our undrawn revolving credit facility, as well as restricted cash of approximately $390 million, most of which is reserved for debt service. This liquidity forecast includes 2024 CapEx expectations of $250 million, of which approximately $115 million is related to the Deepwater Aquila. About $15 million of CapEx associated with the Aquila remains. Of the approximately $135 million expected for sustaining and contract preparation CapEx, approximately $65 million has already been incurred. We continue to actively manage our balance sheet, making decisions that we believe prioritize the long-term interests of the company and our shareholders.
In June, we issued 55.5 million shares and $130 million in aggregate principal amount of our 8% senior notes due 2027, as part of the consideration to acquire the outstanding 67% ownership interest in the joint venture, which owns Transocean Norge. In addition to the qualitative benefits Keelan mentioned earlier, this transaction is anticipated to provide an incremental $40 million in free cash flow per year on average over the next 5 years, which can be used to reduce our debt. We remain committed to maximizing the conversion of our industry-leading backlog into cash. We will continue to ensure that our capital allocation aligns with our priority of deleveraging the balance sheet and also allows us to effectively manage our portfolio of assets.
We believe this approach fosters sustainable growth in the upcycle and enables us to capitalize on opportunities that maximize value creation. This concludes my prepared remarks, and I'll turn it back over to Alison for Q&A.
Thanks, Thad. Brittany, we're now ready to take questions. As a reminder to the participants, please limit yourself to one initial question and one follow-up question.
Operator (participant)
At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing star two. Once again, that is star and one if you would like to ask a question. We'll take our first question from Eddie Kim with Barclays. Your line is now open.
Eddie Kim (VP of Equity Research)
Hi, good morning. Just wanted to start off with BP's FID of the Kaskida development recently, which will need a 20K psi rig. Would the Atlas be a good candidate for that when it comes off contract with Beacon in early 2027? Or do you think BP will need a rig earlier than that? In which case... I mean, what do you see as the likelihood of maybe another upgrade to 20K psi capabilities? And how much would you expect to be the cost of that type of upgrade?
Jeremy Thigpen (CEO)
Thanks, Eddie. Kind of a two-part question. I'll let Roddie handle the marketing side of it, and then Keelan will address the,
Alison Johnson (Director of Investor Relations)
... what it takes to actually upgrade an existing seventh-gen rig to 20K capable?
Roddie Mackenzie (EVP and Chief Commercial Officer)
Yeah, yeah. So, as we've illustrated before, the point of us doing the proactive upgrade to that rig was to be the rig available when the 20K completion activity really kicked off. So, that would be a logical choice, I think. And certainly having a rig available, not only in that time frame, but a hot rig that's gone through all of the upgrades and is, you know, been operating for some time in 20K, I think that opportunity would suit us very well.
Keelan Adamson (President and COO)
Maybe just to pick up on the second part of that question on what it takes to upgrade another rig. First of all, you've obviously got to buy all the equipment with the lead times that's associated with that. And today, you know, I think it's probably in the 30-month mark to be able to get a 20K BOP, if you ordered it today. On top of that, there's a lot of other ancillary equipment that's required for the riser system. And then you've got to go and take a hole and upgrade all of the internal piping systems for that rig that are related to the pressure control system up to 20,000 psi as well. And that is an intrusive and long process.
Alison Johnson (Director of Investor Relations)
So if you think about a seventh generation rig that's currently working, they'll have to come out of service, and they will probably have—they will have an opportunity cost associated with that for four to six months to be able to at least get that upgrade completed, along with the lag time, the lead time, excuse me, for the other equipment that's required. You're, you know, you're looking at three to four years in advance and multiple $200 million+ to be able to complete that upgrade out, without even considering the opportunity cost that's lost.
Eddie Kim (VP of Equity Research)
Right. Okay.
Jeremy Thigpen (CEO)
We're in a pretty good position there.
Eddie Kim (VP of Equity Research)
I'm hearing it's difficult to upgrade, which bodes well for the Atlas and the Titan. Got it. My follow-up is just on the full year 2024 EBITDA guidance, which you maintained. Just wondering what the assumption is on your idle rigs. So you have two rigs idle today, the DD3 and the Inspiration. Does your latest guidance, the midpoint of it, let's say, assume incremental work for these rigs this year? And to the extent they get no work this year, does that put us kind of at the low end of your EBITDA guide? Just how should we think about that?
Roddie Mackenzie (EVP and Chief Commercial Officer)
Yeah. So, you know, in our guidance and, in our marketing strategy, we are not expecting to put those rigs, to work this year. So, that's already baked in there, that they will not be active during this year. I think, as we'd said before, we're, we're basically gonna only put them on the right opportunities. We're, we're not gonna try and, compete with them, for short-term work. So we're basically keeping them dry for, for longer opportunities. So yeah, our, our guidance numbers, have no activity on those rigs.
Jeremy Thigpen (CEO)
I'd suggest also that while the rigs would technically be characterized as warm-ish, we've taken a number of steps to ensure that they are marketable, but the costs associated with keeping them in that condition are as low as possible.
Eddie Kim (VP of Equity Research)
Okay. Got it. Understood, and very clear. Thank you. I'll turn it back.
Jeremy Thigpen (CEO)
Thanks, Eddie.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Greg Lewis with BTIG. Your line is now open.
Greg Lewis (Managing Director and Energy and Infrastructure Analyst)
Hey, thank you, and good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Hey, you know, congratulations on locking up the Invictus. I did wanna talk a little bit about your strategy in the Gulf of Mexico, though. I mean, that rig has kind of been like the hammer rig over the last couple of years, pushing rates higher. You kinda locked that rig up. I mean, you know, realizing that the Conqueror is on contract into kind of the middle of next year, is that kinda gonna...? Should we think about that rig being a, you know, a spot rig bouncing around the Gulf of Mexico? Or are we at a point in the cycle now where, you know, customers are really starting to lock up any and all available 7G hot rigs?
Roddie Mackenzie (EVP and Chief Commercial Officer)
Yeah. Hey, I, I think I'll take the last part of that first. So yeah, that's exactly the mode that the customers are in at the moment, right? Assets, they're really looking to lock them up. So, you know, as Jeremy had mentioned, we do have a, an LOI on one of those rigs, and we, we never give the details of that, and we're kind of- we kind of would rather not. But, we're, you know, very confident that those rigs are, are gonna have, you know, good work immediately ahead of them. Hopefully, we'll have some updates very, very soon for you on that. But, as we think about, you know, the strategy on the Invictus, a-as you point out, that was our flex rig.
Alison Johnson (Director of Investor Relations)
You know, she was the market mover at some point, and, you know, now we really got a fantastic opportunity here, with a new customer for us, to put her away on some very meaningful work that opens up a number of very interesting other opportunities. And I think that's kind of the what we see at the moment, Greg. We're basically, you know, as Jeremy alluded to, very close to being sold out, but, you know, we've certainly seen a significant increase in contracting activity over the last couple of months. In fact, you know, as we think about having booked $1.4 billion already this year, $1.2 billion of that has happened just within the last few months.
So, we've seen a real acceleration in the number of awards, and of course, covering a lot of the white space that we had, that now is really a very, very small amount of white space left in the working fleet.
Greg Lewis (Managing Director and Energy and Infrastructure Analyst)
... Okay, great. And just, you know, I guess, Thad, you know, kind of curious how you're thinking about, you know, the balance sheet. I mean, I get the sense from investors, you know, definitely you guys have been doing a lot to keep them busy. You know, but I think the goal is to, you know, maybe start getting that, you know, total debt level down. And so, you know, as we, as we're here, you kind of have 2024 guidance. You know, the table is set. Any kind of long range, long-term kind of targets you're thinking about, you know, around, you know, that debt level as kind of we look out, you know, in, in the -- over the next couple of years?
Jeremy Thigpen (CEO)
Thanks, Greg. So there's really not been any change in our approach to the balance sheet. I mean, we do have the discipline of debt associated with the third financings, the regular amortizations. You know, we have talked about our interest in getting to a credit rating level of, you know, double B-ish, which affords all the rights and privileges that one could have, being essentially a, you know, a junk rated with a junk rated balance sheet. No change there. We think that we get to that place somewhere in the 2026 period of time. And I'd suggest also that that's not necessarily anything more than mathematics. We do need to continue to reduce the overall gross debt on our balance sheet, but we've not really articulated any specific targets at this point. But no change to our plans.
Greg Lewis (Managing Director and Energy and Infrastructure Analyst)
Okay. Thank you all very much for your time.
Jeremy Thigpen (CEO)
Thanks, Greg.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We'll take our next question from David Smith with Pickering Energy Partners. Your line is now open.
David Smith (Director)
Hey, good morning, and thank you for taking my question.
Jeremy Thigpen (CEO)
Morning, Dave.
David Smith (Director)
It was a very impressive harsh environment rates in Q2. I think the reported average of almost $450,000 a day, which was, you know, substantially better than the $386,000 a day average, you know, that that was, you know, on the last fleet status report for Q2. And I was just gonna ask if you could remind us about the moving pieces that contribute to that day rate outperformance.
Roddie Mackenzie (EVP and Chief Commercial Officer)
Yeah, hey, I think what we actually posted was like a $483 and a $517. So they're substantially higher than the $300 rates that you mentioned before. And this really happened because of the exodus of rigs from Norway really tightened up that market. And of course, with the rigs finding gainful employment elsewhere, that market remains particularly tight. And I think going forward, we see that there's gonna be another call on rigs to go back to Norway, which I think can only bolster those numbers. So I would expect that a lot of those fixtures are gonna be in those very high 400s and 500s as numbers going forward.
David Smith (Director)
Yeah, hey, I appreciate it. Right. Definitely, I was more referring to, you know, not leading edge, but the average daily revenue, you know, realized in Q2 2024, which, you know, on the press release is $449,600. And just kind of thinking about that in comparison to the FSR from last April, right? Where, you know, you've got an estimated average contract rates of $386,000 for the harsh environment fleet in the second quarter. And I know there's some other, you know, items that kind of explain that difference. I was just asking for a refresh around those items.
Jeremy Thigpen (CEO)
Yeah, Dave, I'm trying to think back, but if I recall, second quarter of last year, we had quite a bit of waiting on weather, which would have been at lower day rates. So that, that probably factored into that. I don't have the information readily available, but I think that's probably part of it. That coupled with the higher day rates that we booked here of late, and then rollover contracts where options are priced higher. So the combination of all of those three, I think, is what led to the fairly significant increase in day rate for those fixtures.
David Smith (Director)
Great. Appreciate it. And I know this isn't, you know, really direct competition with you, and you don't have that much availability for the next year and a half anyways. But, yeah, just thinking about the pretty, pretty notable, you know, decline for new contracts on the benign ultra-deepwater semis. Wanted to ask if you're seeing any change in the competitive behavior, you know, of those asset owners, including maybe more aggressive pricing competition to try to get work away from the Tier One rigs.
Jeremy Thigpen (CEO)
Yeah, we have. Are you talking about in the U.K. primarily, or?
David Smith (Director)
Oh, no, the benign semis. We've, we've had, you know, pretty light contracting for the, the benign deepwater semis.
Roddie Mackenzie (EVP and Chief Commercial Officer)
Yeah, look, I think we have very little exposure to that point now. But, I think the operators at the moment are very focused on booking the higher specification assets. And I think as those run out, which is happening very rapidly, you'll probably see a lot more attention going to those benign environment semis in the sixth-gen fleet. But, yeah, for now, it's all about trying to make sure people get time on the rigs that they really need to drill our programs.
David Smith (Director)
Makes perfect sense. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Kurt Hallead with Benchmark. Your line is now open.
Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)
Hey, good morning. I always appreciate the color. Thank you.
Thad Vayda (EVP and CFO)
Morning, Kurt.
Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)
Hey, I guess let me just start by this—let's start it this way, you know, given that it's offshore drilling day on conference calls. So just kind of calibrate. We've heard from a couple of the other peer group, and it sounds like between now and 2026, there could be incremental demand for 7G drill ships in the range of somewhere between 5-10. Is that a number that you guys, like when kind of parse through your commentary, is that a number that we could get to as well?
Roddie Mackenzie (EVP and Chief Commercial Officer)
... Yeah, absolutely. That would, in fact, be our number, basically 5-10 incremental over the mix, all the sense in the world.
Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)
Okay, that's awesome. So, Jeremy, maybe for you or Keelan, either way, you know, there had been a relative lull in the cadence of contracts, it seems, up until recently. And the contracts that have been signed have now, you know, busted above that $500,000 a day marker. How do you see things evolving from here? Do we expect maybe there just to be a kind of a digestion period of what's been announced, and then potentially another kind of spurt as we get toward the year-end? Or is that spurt gonna be more of a 2025 kind of dynamic?
Jeremy Thigpen (CEO)
Yes, I'll take that, and Roddie and Keelan can chime in as appropriate. You know, we said in the last call, because there was a lot of talk about the lull in contracting activity, we said, "Listen, we haven't been this busy in the last decade." We are, and they're all direct negotiations of the vast majority of them, so you don't see them. You don't see all the conversations that are taking place behind the scenes. But we said they're a little bit slower to execute these contracts because the dollar values are so substantial now.
Alison Johnson (Director of Investor Relations)
You know, back during the downturn, when you're talking about one or two wells at $250,000-$300,000 a day, our customers could get those approved really quickly because it didn't make that much of a financial impact to them. Now, we're talking about $500,000 a day plus over multiple years, and the approval process is pretty lengthy, and the terms and conditions and negotiating of those get pretty onerous. And so it just takes a little longer to work through the system. And as you know, as we saw here recently with our fleet status report and then the recent announcement of BP, sometimes they all come in a flurry. It doesn't mean there's so much activity that's going on in the background right now, and there's so much still in front of us.
I mean, I would hope and expect that, you know, we'll have more announcements like these as we move through the rest of the year, because we're in deep negotiations, deep conversations with our customers, who all wanna push these programs forward. It just takes a little bit longer for them to get all the necessary approvals internally and through their partners. And so the cadence, I couldn't tell you. I don't know that we will see a great flurry like we did here over the course of the last couple of months, all at once, but I do expect multiple contracts to be executed and announced over the course of the coming weeks and months.
Roddie Mackenzie (EVP and Chief Commercial Officer)
Yeah, I'll just add a little bit to that. I think there's a bit of a misunderstanding or a disconnect between what's reported as supply and demand in amongst the analysts and what we actually see. So to Jeremy's point, you know, we've never seen a lull in contracting activity. There may have been a kind of a pause in some of the time when the fixtures were made. But as we had articulated before, the decisions are much bigger now, right? So you're talking about much larger programs, higher day rates, and those take longer. But now we're seeing a rapid acceleration in these awards out.
Alison Johnson (Director of Investor Relations)
And 2024 is already, to this point of the year, a great contracting year for us, and we expect it to be even better by the end. So it could be one of our best ever contracting years. So there's obviously a tremendous number of announcements on our fleet that we're, you know, very proud of, but we expect a significant number more still to come. And I think you'll see that, you know, our backlog has already climbed. If we include the BP fixture that we just announced, we're sitting currently at $9.1 billion, and we expect that to grow even further. So, I think it's gonna be a prolific year.
Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)
Awesome. And then one for Thad. So, Thad, you know, given where the backlog currently sits today and the average rates in the backlog and so on, how can we think about the prospect of converting that backlog into cash flow and then into outright debt reduction? Maybe following on one of the questions that were said earlier. But again, assuming no change in current backlog or day rate structure, how does that convert to cash flow, and how much debt can you take out of the system over the next couple of years?
Thad Vayda (EVP and CFO)
So, you know, as I mentioned, we do have a debt associated with our security. And sort of from this point on, we anticipate that there'll be a steady growth in cash flow available to address the balance sheet. You know, in the natural course, we anticipate that by the end of 2026 or thereabout, we'll be in the neighborhood of, you know, $4.7 billion of debt, and then it goes down significantly in the next... The objective here is to put every available dollar of cash flow that makes sense into improving the condition of the balance sheet. It's gonna be a capital allocation exercise. You know, we anticipate that there will be opportunities to put some of our cold stacked assets back to work.
Alison Johnson (Director of Investor Relations)
There's always gonna be a timing difference, notwithstanding the discipline that we'll exercise in ensuring customers pay for those, and we get the appropriate return. But given that our valuation is predicated primarily on our ability to reduce debt, it makes sense for us to deploy every dollar that we can to that purpose.
Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)
That's great. Thanks a lot. Appreciate it.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Doug Becker with Capital One. Your line is open.
Doug Becker (Analyst)
Thank you. So it looks like the Atlas contract makes a distinction between drilling and 20K completion activity, and then, a look at the Invictus, I'm guessing there's probably some Kaskida drilling associated with that as well. So curious if you're seeing the 20K drilling versus completion market evolving in a way that the contracts are gonna consistently making some type of distinction between drilling versus completion?
Roddie Mackenzie (EVP and Chief Commercial Officer)
Yeah. Hey, look, that's not the case going forward. This is actually just a small anomaly that essentially... The plan here was always to make the Atlas a completion-centric vessel, simply because you have the features of 20K that nobody else does. So we're basically at the point now that the 20K market is now mature enough, and there's a pipeline of many, many different prospects, that we would expect to keep her focused on 20K completions going forward. So this is really just the evolution of what-- from when we took delivery of the rig, all the way through its kind of maiden contract, and then into these extensions that we've had.
Alison Johnson (Director of Investor Relations)
Going forward, after that point, she will be very focused on 20K because now there's very significant demand for 20K.
Doug Becker (Analyst)
That completely makes sense. Then a quick one for Thad. The annual guidance seems to imply that O&M expense will decline in the fourth quarter. Was just hoping you could talk about that at just a high level, what some of the moving parts might be on that.
Thad Vayda (EVP and CFO)
I think the O&M guidance is generally consistent with what we articulated last quarter. There may be a slight decline. It's gonna be a function of the amount of the O&M costs that were deferred in this period, are spread over the next couple of quarters. But generally, I'd expect it to be close to flat. There's a rounding element in there as well.
Doug Becker (Analyst)
Sure. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. And in the interest of time, our final question will come from Josh Jayne with Daniel Energy Partners. Your line is now open.
Josh Jayne (Managing Director)
Thanks. First one I had is just on the Gulf of Mexico. In your prepared comments, you talked about it, the market being in balance, but that there are a number of gap-filler type programs to be awarded. I was hoping you could elaborate on that and those opportunities a little bit, and then also just expand on your outlook for the Gulf of Mexico over the next 12 to 24 months.
Roddie Mackenzie (EVP and Chief Commercial Officer)
Yeah. So, look, as we see it there, we have to talk about, you know, gap fillers, but, you know, as we mentioned before, one's under an LOI. We expect another one that's got options. So the likelihood of them actually being gap fillers is very small. They're going, they're gonna, hopefully turn into firm term very soon. And that really puts us in a fantastic position for visibility. So you ask about the outlook for the Gulf of Mexico. As we look at it, our fleet in the Gulf, assuming that we close these last couple of little pieces, is essentially sold out for a very significant period of time. Some of the rigs sold out for, you know, several years going forward.
Alison Johnson (Director of Investor Relations)
But as we think about the availability that we have, we have very little availability over the next 24 months. And the great thing about that is not only do we have the visibility to the activity, but all of the rates that we've booked in the Gulf of Mexico for these longer-term pieces are very attractive. So that's expected to generate very substantial cash flows, and really part of the strategy that we've had all along about keeping the right assets available for the right opportunities. And now we're seeing that coming through in spades.
Josh Jayne (Managing Director)
Thanks. And then one thing I wanted to go back to it, that was also in the prepared remarks. I think I missed the detail, but you talked about a level of CapEx, increasing from 2024 through 2027. That was largely going to be driven by expansions in South America and Africa. I just was hoping you could go back to that a little bit, and then, for that level of CapEx increase, could you talk about how many rigs ultimately you would expect that to consume? You talked about the 5-10, maybe, 12 months from now, but just how you're thinking about that level of CapEx increase and what the rig count, what it could consume in 2027. Thank you.
Jeremy Thigpen (CEO)
Sorry, could you repeat the question? We're all, it was a little bit muffled.
Josh Jayne (Managing Director)
Sorry about that.
Jeremy Thigpen (CEO)
Josh, you still there?
Josh Jayne (Managing Director)
So, so-
Jeremy Thigpen (CEO)
Yes.
Josh Jayne (Managing Director)
Yeah, yeah, I'm here. Sorry. So in the prepared remarks, you had said something about a level of CapEx that was expected to increase. I think it was more than 100% from 2024 through 2027, which was gonna be driven by Deepwater activity in South America and Africa. And I was just curious if you could repeat those numbers and talk about how many rigs that would ultimately consume, from going from sort of where we are today to then.
Thad Vayda (EVP and CFO)
Oh, I'm sorry. You're talking about total greenfield exploration, CapEx-
Josh Jayne (Managing Director)
Yeah.
Thad Vayda (EVP and CFO)
Not our CapEx.
Josh Jayne (Managing Director)
Yeah.
Thad Vayda (EVP and CFO)
We thought you were talking about-
Josh Jayne (Managing Director)
That's correct
Thad Vayda (EVP and CFO)
... our CapEx, which is declining.
Josh Jayne (Managing Director)
No, no, no.
Thad Vayda (EVP and CFO)
Which is declining.
Josh Jayne (Managing Director)
No. No, no, no.
Thad Vayda (EVP and CFO)
Okay, sorry.
Josh Jayne (Managing Director)
Sorry about that. But for the-
Thad Vayda (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, yeah
Josh Jayne (Managing Director)
... yes, thank you.
Thad Vayda (EVP and CFO)
So in the prepared remarks, it was global offshore greenfield exploration and production investments are projected to grow to $110 billion in 2027. That's up 129% from $48 billion in 2024. And so that is what we believe is going to be driving the incremental five to 10 rigs that we discussed earlier on the call in one of the Q&A sessions. So I mean, just that level of incremental capital is obviously gonna lead to an increase. And so that's really what's giving us the kind of the confidence that we will see an increase in rig count. And since we're already at 98% utilization on the active fleet, this is going to lead to customer finance reactivations.
Alison Johnson (Director of Investor Relations)
That does give us some confidence that we will ultimately begin reactivating some assets here in the not-too-distant future.
Josh Jayne (Managing Director)
Understood. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you, and I will now turn the call back over to Alison Johnson for any additional or closing remarks.
Alison Johnson (Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Brittany, and thank you everyone for your participation on today's call. We look forward to talking with you again when we report our third quarter of 2024 results. Have a good day.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time, and have a wonderful day.