Regal Rexnord - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, and welcome to the Regal Rexnord Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Rob Barry, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Rob Barry (VP of Investor Relations)

Great. Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Regal Rexnord's Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Louis Pinkham, our Chief Executive Officer, and Rob Rehard, our Chief Financial Officer. I would like to remind you that during today's call, you may hear forward-looking statements related to our future financial results, plans, and business operations. Our actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors, which we describe in greater detail in today's press release and in our reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the regalrexnord.com website. Also, on this slide, we state that we are presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are useful to our investors, and we have included reconciliations between the non-GAAP financial information and the GAAP equivalent in the press release and in these presentation materials.

Turning to slide three, let me briefly review the agenda for today's call. Louis will lead off with opening comments and overview of our fourth quarter and full year performance, and a discussion of our recent data center wins. Rob Rehard will then present our fourth quarter financial results in more detail and introduce our 2026 guidance. We'll then move to Q&A, after which Louis will have some closing remarks. With that, I'll turn the call over to Louis.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Thanks, Rob, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter results and to get an update on our business. We appreciate your continued interest in Regal Rexnord. Before we get into the quarter, I want to provide you with an update on the CEO search. The board search committee has been working diligently, and our process is progressing as expected. We will update you as new information becomes available. Now, on to our results. Our team delivered solid fourth quarter performance, ending the year on a high note. Fourth quarter aligned with our expectations on adjusted earnings per share. We saw tremendous order strength and a backlog exiting 2025, up 50% versus prior year, giving us extremely positive momentum as we begin 2026.

While our data center business is clearly performing exceptionally well, we also saw healthy orders in other parts of our business, especially discrete automation and aerospace and defense. Before continuing, I want to take a moment to thank our 30,000 Regal Rexnord associates for their hard work and disciplined execution, in particular, driving our new product pipelines, our cross-sell initiatives, and building our commercial funnels to drive stronger and more profitable growth. Now, let me provide some specifics on our fourth quarter performance, starting with orders. Orders in the quarter on a daily basis were up 53.8% versus prior year, and book-to-bill was 1.48. In the quarter, we booked orders worth approximately $735 million for our new E-Pod solution, which comprises our proven power management content, including switchgear, automatic transfer switches, and power distribution units.

You may remember we discussed E-Pods on our third quarter call, when we dimensioned an opportunity funnel worth over $400 million and a billion-dollar funnel for our data center business more broadly. In Q4, we also built momentum in discrete automation, which saw orders grow 9%, in aerospace and defense, with orders up 21%, and in IPS, where orders grew over 3%, and which we believe reflects outperformance in end markets that were challenged by a sub-50 ISM. Excluding the large E-Pod orders, our enterprise orders grew 2.7% in the quarter. Shifting to sales. Our sales in the quarter were up 2.9% versus the prior year on an organic basis, demonstrating accelerating organic growth. We saw particular strength in AMC, which grew over 15% organically.

The AMC team did an excellent job executing its backlog and benefiting from share gains in its largely secular markets. We saw weakness in PES in the quarter, which was more severe than expected, given headwinds in the residential HVAC market. IPS continued to achieve steady growth, outperforming sluggish industrial markets. Turning to margins. Our fourth quarter adjusted gross margin was 37.6%, up 50 basis points versus the prior year. Our teams overcame tariff and mixed headwinds with continued strong execution on synergies, good price realization, and benefits from volume leverage. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.6%, roughly flat versus prior year, reflecting our gross margin expansion, volume leverage, and disciplined discretionary cost management, which offset higher growth investments. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter was $2.51, up 7.3% versus the prior year.

Lastly, we generated $141 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter. We ended the quarter with our net debt leverage coming down to 3.1. In summary, a strong fourth quarter, characterized by solid adjusted EPS growth, exceptionally strong orders, and a rising backlog, giving us positive momentum as we begin 2026. At the beginning of a new year, it is always good to reflect on the success of the prior year. In 2025, our orders grew 15.5% for the year on a daily basis, led by AMC, up 53%, followed by IPS, up 4%, and PES, which was down 5%. Sales for the year were up 80 basis points on an organic basis, with acceleration as the year progressed.

Strength in aerospace and defense, discrete automation, energy, data center, commercial HVAC, and an incremental $90 million of cross-sell and powertrain synergies were partially offset by headwinds in general and industrial and medical. Turning to margins for 2025, our adjusted EBITDA margins were 22%, roughly flat to the prior year on a comparable basis, reflecting good execution in a tough operating environment. Our teams overcame headwinds from tariffs, rare earth magnet availability, and mix by effectively executing on synergies worth $54 million, in addition to price realization discipline and good discretionary cost management. Adjusted earnings per share for the year was $9.65, up nearly 6% versus the prior year. Adjusted free cash flow was $893 million, including the ARS program we launched in second quarter.

Our cash flow allowed us to pay down over $700 million of debt in 2025. In summary, I would characterize 2025 as a year of executing a wide range of growth initiatives, which are starting to pay off, giving us increasingly positive momentum. It was also a year of achieving margin stability in the face of external pressures outside of our control. As we enter 2026, I believe we are extremely well-positioned, in particular, giving traction on our growth initiatives. One of these initiatives in the data center market is where I'd like to turn next. On this slide, we are providing additional details on the orders we received during fourth quarter for our E-Pod offering.

As discussed on our third quarter call, these turnkey power management solutions, which we launched in early 2025, are designed to expedite data center construction by making the installation of power management content more plug and play. The pods, which are tailored to customer-specific customer needs, comprise content drawn from our long-standing power management portfolio, which includes switchgear, transfer switches, and power distribution units, as well as from our thermal management offering, which includes hermetic motors and air-moving solutions. Regal is also project managing assembly of the pods, including content from third parties. So part of our value proposition is providing a single source of contact for the customer and allowing customers to procure a suite of power management content with a single SKU.

As you can see on this slide, we were awarded orders for E-Pods with a base value of approximately $735 million. So why are we winning this business? It starts with our 50-year track record of quality and performance in power management. Our product solutions are tried and true. Second, our customization capabilities. This is a differentiator for Regal, an ability and willingness to customize the system designed to best meet the needs of our customer. Third, the strength and durability of our supply chain relationships, which help enable the next success factor, our high service levels around on-time delivery and lead times. Equally important, we have shown across our business an ability to support high service levels while manufacturing at scale. Another driver of these wins, the scale and scope of Regal Rexnord.

Orders of this magnitude are facilitated by the backing of our $6 billion enterprise. Customers value our ability to balance agility and velocity with disciplined execution as they contend with a feverish pace of AI-driven development. In short, we are seeing the power of our evolved Regal Rexnord portfolio to support differentiated growth. As part of the new Regal Rexnord, what was a $30 million power management business 5 years ago, and then a $120 million business today, has a defined path to roughly $1 billion in sales over the next two years. Viewed more holistically, these wins demonstrate that our enterprise growth strategy is gaining momentum, in particular, investing to address rising demand in targeted secular markets. We are working this strategy in many areas, which is where I would like to turn next.

On this slide, we highlight key secular growth verticals where we are directing the majority of our new product, e-commerce, and channel investments. In the middle column, we provide examples of new products we have launched to address relevant customer needs in each vertical. On the right, we highlight a few notable examples where we are seeing traction in the marketplace. We already discussed E-Pods and the data center market. Our electromechanical actuators for the emerging eVTOL market, which we developed through a partnership with Honeywell, is another great example. Various third-party forecasts are calling for significant growth in eVTOL unit volumes in the coming years, and we are well positioned, with over $200,000 of shipset potential per plane.

Next, our Kollmorgen Essentials product, which launched at the end of 2025, where we are leveraging our motion control technology for the ultra-premium market in an offering designed for the much larger, high, and mid-premium market segments. Initial market reception has been strong, and we believe we are on track to meet our goal for $50 million of sales from this new offering by 2028. Finally, we have developed a range of differentiated solutions to support robotic actuation, which spans humanoids, cobots, and robotic surgery application. Our teams are currently working an opportunity funnel in excess of $200 million across these applications, and have already been experiencing strong double-digit compounded growth in robotic actuation in recent years. The common theme here is Regal Rexnord making a range of growth investments in high-potential secular markets, which are starting to pay off.

What we are experiencing in data center is one more advanced example. Positively, we see tremendous additional upside as both our offerings in earlier stage markets, such as eVTOL and humanoids, continue to mature. With that, I will turn the call over to Rob.

Robert Rehard (CFO)

Thanks, Louis, and good morning, everyone. Now let's review our operating performance by segment. Starting with Automation and Motion Control, or AMC, sales in the fourth quarter were up 15.2% versus the prior year period on an organic basis, which was ahead of our expectations. The performance reflects broad-based growth, but with particular strength in data center, in aerospace and defense, and in discrete automation. We would attribute the strength to underlying end market momentum in these secular markets, as well as to our outgrowth initiatives, including cross-sell activities, which continue to gain traction. I would also point out that the medical market was flat after four quarters of destocking-related declines. This is another secular market where we are extremely well positioned, with high margin, technology-rich products, and are very happy to see this market appearing poised to improve.

We continued to face headwinds in the quarter related to rare earth magnet availability, but these were in line with our expectations, and our plans to secure alternative sources of supply are on track. Turning to margins, AMC's adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter was 20.5%, which was below our expectations and down roughly one point versus the prior year. While we were pleased to see the team over-execute on its backlog during the fourth quarter, some of the incremental volume, which was weighted to OEM versus distribution sales, created mixed headwinds. Orders in AMC in the fourth quarter were up 190%, primarily reflecting the large E-Pod orders Louis discussed earlier. Excluding the E-Pod orders, AMC's orders were up 19.2% versus the prior year on a daily basis, primarily reflecting strength in data center, aerospace and defense, and discrete automation.

Notably, orders in discrete automation were up just over 9% in the quarter and are up about 6% on a rolling 12-month basis, reflecting growing momentum in this market. The momentum we are building in automation bodes well for our growth and margin outlook, given the above average conversion rates on these products. January orders for AMC were up 3.9% on a daily basis. And before I leave AMC, I'd like to emphasize that the growth we saw as we exited the year reinforces our belief that the strength of the markets served, along with our differentiated products and solutions, help set up AMC to consistently achieve the mid to high single-digit growth that we expect from this segment. Now turning to Industrial Powertrain Solutions, or IPS.

Sales in the fourth quarter were up 3.7% versus the prior year on an organic basis, which was in line with our expectations. The growth was broad-based, but with particular strength in the metals and mining and energy markets. We are encouraged by this performance, which we believe evidences share gains, given the ISM remained in contraction as we exited 2025. In particular, the IPS team continues to work our various cross-sell and powertrain initiatives, and we can see these results showing up in our performance. Adjusted EBITDA margin for IPS in the quarter was 25.7%, within our expectations and just below the prior year. Performance versus prior year was impacted by weaker mix, the impact of tariffs, and higher growth investments, partially offset by continued strong synergy gains.

Orders in IPS on a daily basis were up 3.3% in the fourth quarter, the sixth quarter in a row of positive orders growth for this segment, which contributed to the backlog ending the year up 6% versus prior year. Book-to-bill in the fourth quarter for IPS was 0.96. January orders were down 0.5% on a daily basis. Turning to Power Efficiency Solutions, or PES, sales in the fourth quarter were down 10.7% versus the prior year on an organic basis, which was below our expectation. The shortfall was due to weaker performance in residential HVAC, which we would attribute primarily to more severe channel destocking after the A2L regulatory transition, which was partially offset by strength in commercial HVAC.

Speaking further on the residential HVAC market, it is important to note that if you follow the AHRI market volume data, central air conditioners were down about 26% year-to-date through November, but Regal was only down about 7%. We don't believe all of this is due to share gain, but 2025 was clearly a year of strong market outperformance for PES in the resi HVAC space. Turning to margins. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter for PES was 15.6%, which was above our expectations and up 30 basis points versus the prior year. This strong performance, achieved despite challenging end market conditions, reflects both strong cost management by the team as well as mix benefits.

Orders in PES for the fourth quarter were down 15.9% on a daily basis, directionally consistent with views we had previously articulated, tied to channel destocking and weak consumer and housing metrics. Book-to-bill in the quarter for PES was 0.91. January orders in PES were up 3.8% on a daily basis. Turning to the outlook on slide 12. The table on the left outlines our principal assumptions for 2026. Starting with sales, our guidance assumes growth of roughly 3%, comprised of 1-1.5 points from the large data center projects we have won, and roughly 1.5 points from price, which is largely tariff related. Outside of data center, we assume that volume growth across all other end markets is roughly flat on a net basis.

Several of our end markets have the potential for stronger growth in 2026, and we were pleased to see the January ISM above 50, which has generally been in contraction territory for roughly three years. That said, one month does not make a trend, and we are intentionally adopting a more measured approach at the beginning of the year. This allows us to carefully monitor developments and make adjustments to our assumptions and guidance only when justified by new information or changing market dynamics. For example, we would like to see the ISM remain above 50 for a sustained period of time before becoming more constructive on our market growth assumptions. Another area we are carefully monitoring is our data center business. We continue to actively pursue a robust pipeline of bids, which could translate into orders eligible for shipment within 2026.

Additionally, as delivery schedules for the E-Pod orders already secured are finalized, there is the possibility that some of these sales may be recognized in late 2026, rather than in our current plan for 2027. Should these factors materialize, they could offer upside potential to our existing guidance. However, until delivery dates are confirmed, we will maintain our prudent and measured outlook. Our adjusted EBITDA margin is forecast to rise 50 basis points to 22.5%. The increase reflects our mid-30s incremental margin applied to the growth we are forecasting. Note that while we fully expect to realize $40 million of cost synergies this year, we are treating those as a contingency against unforeseen P&L pressures, which we believe helps de-risk our guidance. The table also outlines relevant below-the-line items.

These assumptions result in an adjusted earnings per share guidance range of $10.20-$11. The low and high ends of the range factor a combination of slower or faster top line growth, and to a lesser extent, modestly lower or higher adjusted EBITDA margins. The midpoint of the range of $10.60 equates to approximately 10% adjusted earnings per share growth. For 2026, our cash flow guidance is set at approximately $650 million. This figure reflects our need to invest in working capital throughout the year to support the robust growth occurring in our data center business. Finally, regarding tariffs. Our guidance embeds all current tariffs in place today. It also reflects the recently announced update to India tariffs.

With this update, our annualized unmitigated impact is now roughly $155 million. Consistent with our previous views, we expect to be dollar cost neutral on tariffs by the middle of 2026, and to be margin neutral on tariffs by the end of this year. On slide 13, we provide more specific expectations for our performance by segment on revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin for the first quarter and for the full year. Let me flag a few key assumptions that should help with modeling. One, we assume modestly lower revenue in the first quarter relative to fourth quarter, largely reflecting normal seasonality across our businesses and expected destocking pressures in residential HVAC in PES. We expect annual sales to be weighted roughly 49%-51% between the first half and the second half of the year.

Second, we expect enterprise-adjusted EBITDA margins to be roughly 21% in the first quarter and to improve sequentially, tied primarily to improving tariff-related price-cost, improving mix as we gain top line traction in our AMC segment, and other cost productivity actions. A more steady sequential trend is expected for IPS and AMC, while PES margins are seen tracking at a cadence similar to what we saw in 2025, with a peak in third quarter related to seasonality. Lastly, we expect first quarter to be the low point for adjusted EPS due to all of the items I just discussed, and for our adjusted earnings per share to be weighted roughly 48%-52% between the first half and second half of the year, which is comparable to the weighting we saw in 2025.

As I reflect on our guidance for the year, I believe we have outlined a compelling and achievable plan that delivers improved top-line growth, some margin expansion, and double-digit earnings per share growth. We attempted to balance our strong orders momentum, higher backlog, ample secular growth opportunities in markets largely at or near trough demand, and a path to further margin expansion with a degree of measured prudence. This view anticipates persistent weakness in global industrial markets and volatile global geopolitical and trade policy environments. For example, our guidance does not embed any improvement to the 2025 ending ISM. Rest assured, our teams remain focused on executing the many compelling opportunities in front of them, and we are confident we can deliver a year that results in meaningful value creation for our shareholders. With that, operator, we are now ready to take questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. The first question comes from Mike Halloran from Baird. Please go ahead.

Michael Halloran (Associate Director of Research and Senior Analyst)

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Robert Rehard (CFO)

Good morning, Mike.

Michael Halloran (Associate Director of Research and Senior Analyst)

Hey, so can we start on the data center side of things and the E-Pod wins? Maybe frame it up in a couple of ways. One, how do you think about the margin profile of this type of business? Is it comparative to the segment level as well? And then secondarily, could you just walk through what that opportunity looks like and frame it from here? You know, you're talking about north of $1 billion last quarter, and this is a $735 million transaction. Gets you pretty darn close to that. So what does this look like? What does this run rate look like from your perspective, and how to think about the opportunity set after we just got such a great order number?

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Yeah, Mike, thanks for the question. I'll start with the second question first. You know, we're thrilled with the $735 million order, and we talked about a $400 million funnel in the last quarter call, and so clearly, we outperformed here. We wanna build on that, and we believe we have the capability to do that, and hence, part of the reason why we started expanding capacity and announced our capacity expansion in the last quarterly call. So we feel good about the offering here and our future potential and that it will grow from here. Now, specific to margins, and specific to these projects, these orders, we would expect adjusted EBITDA margins to be in the 20%+ range.

Our content is a little less than 50% of the bill of material, and we would expect our normal gross margins there. And then we are being compensated a fair margin for the product that's being sourced and then assembled and sold as the E-Pod. So again, expect an adjusted EBITDA margin to be in the 20%+ range, but then expect also that in time, as we drive productivity and supply chain actions, that we would expect to ramp that program margins as well. Hopefully, that helps.

Michael Halloran (Associate Director of Research and Senior Analyst)

Yep, yep, it did, certainly. And then, if you ignore the data center side of things and you think back to where we were on the third quarter, within the industrial businesses as a whole, do you think you're seeing the right trend and trajectory to support a recovery? I know Rob's commentary said PMI, one quarter-one month doesn't make a trend, and it's not embedded in guidance, necessarily any sort of improvement from here. But I'm curious if you're seeing the right signs and what you would point to in your business, to support that.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

You know, it's mixed, honestly, Mike. We ended last quarter and OEM started accelerating, distribution slowed down. We didn't see much change of that in January, although we feel good about our order positions of January and our ability to make our guide for the year, but we didn't see a change of that. We are optimistic about the strength of the ISM coming out of January, but we'd like to see a couple more months of that strung together and then a little bit more strength in the distribution channel as well, before we say, we think we're on a path to strong recovery. But based on our measured approach to our guide, we feel really good.

Michael Halloran (Associate Director of Research and Senior Analyst)

Great. Really appreciate it, Louis. Thanks.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Thanks, Mike.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Julian Mitchell from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks very much. Good morning.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Good morning.

Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)

Maybe you've given very good color on the top line, so thank you for that. Maybe my first question would be around the margin outlook, because I guess the margins are sort of down, or flat to down in AMC and IPS in the fourth quarter. It looks like the first quarter is similar, year-on-year decline with the solid revenue. Just trying to understand within IPS and AMC, you know, how we should think about the margin improvement trajectory through the year. And kind of tied to that, what are you expecting or assuming on price cost, just given what's been happening with metals prices, chip prices, and so forth? Just trying to understand what kind of operating leverage step up we might get later in the year.

That would be helpful, please.

Robert Rehard (CFO)

Yeah, Julian, thanks for the question. Let me start with a little bit. I think AMC is more of the story here than IPS, and that IPS, we still see some strong margins moving forward and feel really good about where we're going there. I think AMC is one, you know, let me spend a minute here. Fourth quarter, you know, product and channel mix certainly were the main factors. You know, for example, we saw some slowdown in distributor sales into the year-end as customers. You know, we saw them as managing the balance sheet. So that certainly played in. And we're seeing just stronger project growth.

So, for example, food and beverage, especially in Europe, within our conveying division, is one where we're, we're continuing to see more volume that has a little bit lower margin profile. You know, the bottom line is that until we lap the mix impact from, you know, the medical and discrete automation side of the business, which is largely tied to, you know, rare earth magnet availability, we're going to continue to see, you know, a bit of pressure on our AMC margins.

Now, as you go into the first quarter of 2026 and move to the back and through into the back half, the first half of the year, and especially in the first quarter, we do expect to see continued pressure related to rare earth magnets, especially in AMC, and that is again going to impact our medical side, in particular, as well as some defense and discrete automation. So that will continue. However, as we move to the back half of the year, we do see that improving, and overall for the year, we see that at the midpoint, AMC margins should improve by about 40 basis points. Again, we are not embedding that any improvement in our mix at this time because we are using our current mix to project future margins. So that we just haven't embedded anything new.

There is opportunity for that to improve. But at the same time, this is a business that we are going to continue to look to grow, and therefore, we do see that it could take a little bit longer to get back up to that range that we provided at Investor Day. There are really a few key things that need to happen in order to hit that number, you know, which is about 24% or so. Number one, we need some more volume. Number two, we need the mix, especially in medical, and defense, and distribution, to get back on track, which I just talked about. Rare earth magnets are about 50 basis points of headwind through 2025. We need that. That's expected to go away mid-year. Great! That should help us out.

Then tariff margin, you know, becomes, tariffs become margin neutral by the end of the year. That's really what needs to happen in order to get back to that 24% range. Now, from a tariff impact, and you asked a little bit about price cost. Our assumption right now remains, mid-year, we will be price cost dollar neutral, end of year until we get to margin neutral.

Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)

That's very helpful. Thank you, Rob. Then just my follow-up. You mentioned sort of costs of, of growth and, and fully understand that approach, and you've laid out very clearly on the P&L margins. Maybe on the free cash flow side, I think you'd alluded a couple of times late last year to a $900 million-ish free cash number for this year. I think the formal guide is $650 million. So just trying to understand the delta there, because it looks like the revenue and EBITDA outlooks are pretty similar, maybe, to what you'd thought a couple of months ago. So just maybe flesh out that delta in the free cash flow assumption today versus, maybe what you were thinking, a couple of months ago.

Robert Rehard (CFO)

Yeah, I think it's a great question, and, let me- let me draw it out for you. It really comes down to two main things. One is the investment that we're making that you just talked about in, especially for this, data center business. We expect about $50 million-$100 million of investment there as we move through the year. That's embedded in our current, cash flow projection. The other is, we really... You know, at the time we set that, the, the forecast or the close to $900 million expectation, you know, quite a bit has changed in terms of the current supply chain landscape, primarily due to tariffs and rare earths and all the things, the uncertainties that we're dealing with on a daily basis.

We are taking a more measured approach to setting guidance for 2026, and therefore, we have, we have created, you know, really a guide that we think we can absolutely hit without a lot of additional working capital benefit. So we reduced our working capital impact that was in the prior forecast by roughly half, and that's the other side of what took down the guide from the prior $900 million to the $650 million. Again, it would be closer to, you know, $750 million or so if it wasn't for the working capital, the investment we're making for data centers. So hopefully that helps. It really is just those two things, and it's all around working capital.

Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)

That's great color. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Jeff Hammond, from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey Hammond (Managing Director)

Yeah, hi. Good, good morning.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Good morning, Jeff.

Jeffrey Hammond (Managing Director)

Hey, so, just back on this E-Pod, it looks like you're gonna ship all of this 735 and 27, is that correct? And then just on slide seven, you know, maybe just level set us on, you know, individually or collectively, how you think, what your percentage of mix of businesses is kind of in the secular growth bucket?

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Yeah. So, Jeff, we do not have a firm schedule at this time. The expectation is that we would start shipping in, beginning of 2027. It will probably hang over a little bit into 2028. There's also a possibility it could pull a little bit into 2026 as well. So as we get a more firm path, we would expect the those orders would ship over a 15-18-month period in total. Specific to slides seven, you know, we've talked about, you know, 40%-50% of the markets that we serve are secular markets. Now, with this data center opportunity and our acceleration of growth, that's just expanding.

This is why we're putting so much investment in these specific markets, is with new product and solutions and commercial initiatives, and we feel that this is gonna help accelerate our growth for the future.

Jeffrey Hammond (Managing Director)

Okay, great. And then, just on this rare earth dynamic, it sounds like, I just wanted to understand how buttoned up it is in terms of kinda coming to resolution. I know it's a headwind, you know, maybe 1Q into 2Q, but maybe just talk through resolution and then, you know, ultimately, how much, you know, you can get back from, from the headwind you had in, in 2025.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Yeah, really, everything is proceeding as we talked about coming out of our third quarter call, Jeff. We remain on track to mitigate the majority of the exposure by end of 2026, with a combination of alternate sourcing, so sourcing outside of China, shift to HRE-free alternatives that don't require China approval for export, as well as permissible exports. So that would be magnets that we can ship, as well as subassemblies that we can ship out of China. Right now, we're absolutely, from a supply chain perspective, on path. The, what we're working with, though, and it's especially in the defense area, as you can imagine, anytime you make any kind of change in the components of the bill of material, you have to go through a validation process.

And so we're working with a number of our OEM partners to get through that testing. And I would say it's going pretty much as expected, a little faster in some customers, a little bit slower in others. So that's what we're working through. I feel the teams are all over it, they're managing it well, and we should be. Well, we are improving, as we every quarter are getting more product and supply and the ability to ship more. We do not feel that we have lost any material levels of share here. If anything, we feel like our supply chain has been very solid. But again, you got to think about the markets that we're applying these products to. The medical market and defense markets, in particular, where the validation process for our products are pretty onerous.

And so once you're embedded in the platform, you stay on the platform. And so, the teams are doing a nice job, and, and we feel like most of this will recover by the end of the year, for sure.

Jeffrey Hammond (Managing Director)

Okay. Thanks so much, Louis.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Yeah, thanks, Jeff.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Kyle Menges, Randy from Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Randy Marker (Equity Research Associate)

Hi, good morning. This is Randy, on for Kyle. Just starting with automation, I mean, the strength in orders again in this quarter was good to see. I was just hoping you guys would give us some color on the underlying demand trends underpinning those orders, and maybe bifurcating between some of your new products and the robotics opportunity between some of the more traditional automation markets, and how to frame up the shippable backlog for 2026 in automation would be helpful.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Yeah. So, thanks for the question, Randy, Randy. Our orders were up roughly 9% in the quarter on automation. Our 12-month rolling is up about 6%. You know, we talked about the Kollmorgen Essentials product launch in the quarter. We feel really good about that gaining momentum and acceleration, but the reality is we only saw about $1 million of orders in the quarter from that, and so it wasn't a big part of the 9% up. We continue to gain traction with humanoid OEMs and selling our subassembled axis solutions. And so from a perspective of our expectation is double-digit growth in robotics. We've seen that for the last few years, and we expect to see it for the next few years as well. Hopefully, that helps.

Randy Marker (Equity Research Associate)

Yeah, got it. That's super helpful. And then just shifting over to PES. I mean, it sounds like destocking was a little bit more than you expected in the fourth quarter. Just curious as to how that informs your outlook for resi HVAC, in particular, in 2026, and what is your confidence level and some of that pressure starting to alleviate in the second half of the year?

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Yeah. So our outlook really doesn't change, even though we saw more pressure in fourth quarter than we thought. We're expecting resi HVAC to be down high single-digits for 2026. That the compare in Q1 is a tough compare for us, so that the biggest part of that down is coming in first half, with some rebounding in the second half. You know, at some point, this business when you think about the market, it was down significantly in 2025. And so when you ask me the question of your confidence in the second half, the confidence comes from the compare. It doesn't come from our ability to forecast this market effectively, and so hopefully that's a helpful perspective.

Randy Marker (Equity Research Associate)

Got it. Thank you, guys.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Thank you.

Robert Rehard (CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Tomo Sano from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Tomohiko Sano (Managing Director)

Hello, everyone.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Good morning, Tomo.

Tomohiko Sano (Managing Director)

Morning. Regarding robotic actuators and $200 million+ pipeline, could you share the latest developments and your expectations for orders in 2026 and 2027, please?

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Yeah, no, we're really excited about our pipeline. We're excited about the new products we're launching, Tomo, and we talked about the Kollmorgen Essentials that moves us into a much larger TAM market. But right now, we're not suggesting anything different than what we've said in the past, which is low double-digit growth. There's also lots of potential in humanoids, and that's gaining traction, but it's a little early for us to say it's gonna accelerate. And so although we were really pleased with the order rates we saw in 2025, we feel we're nicely and well positioned with a number of OEMs in North America, but we're not gonna provide any further guidance than low double-digits for our automation business right now.

Tomohiko Sano (Managing Director)

Thank you, Louis. That's helpful. Just follow up on your net leverage target for 2026, and how are you thinking about the capital allocation priorities, please?

Robert Rehard (CFO)

Yeah, so the net leverage target for 2026, as the guidance would suggest, is about 2.7x by the end of the year. It means that by mid part of the year, we should be right around 3x. And then we're starting the year about, you know, 3.1x, you know, coming out of last year. From a capital allocation standpoint, we would certainly continue to prioritize debt paydown as we move through the year. Of course, we have other capital priorities as well, as we talked about earlier today, in some of those investments that we're making in inventory and the like. So we expect to continue to do that and invest in great CapEx projects with very quick paybacks.

But overall, that's the way we're thinking about it. And we'll continue down that path until we get to kind of our communicated range that we talked about. Our target is lower, less than 2.5x until we start doing something that might include some other options on capital allocation.

Tomohiko Sano (Managing Director)

Thank you, Rob. I appreciate it.

Robert Rehard (CFO)

You got it.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Thanks, Sunil.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Nigel Coe (Managing Director)

Thanks. Good morning. Hope everyone's well.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

How are you doing?

Nigel Coe (Managing Director)

Covered a lot of ground. Thanks for the details. So going back to the E-Pod, just wanna just tie that one up. So I think you said 20% EBITDA margin are sort of like, you know, is, is what you expect. I'm guessing gross margin would be sort of like close to the 30%, there. But is that, is that sort of like what you expect to realize on an average basis, or where you expect to be on a kind of as you ramp up and go through the learning curve? Because obviously this is a fairly new business for you guys, so I wouldn't expect you to be at 20% on day one. Just maybe clarify that. And then secondly, do you have raw material, you know, inflation protection here?

Because obviously, you know, steel prices could move around pretty closely between now and then. So just wondering what sort of protection you have on raws.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Yeah. So, actually, Nigel, we should start out at around 20% and then improve from there. But we don't see this as, you know, getting much beyond where our targets are for the AMC business. But our, our margin potential looks like it's gonna start at around 20%. Specific to hedging, we do hedge. We hedge for steel, we hedge, sorry, we hedge for copper and aluminum. You're right that we, we-- steel would not be one that, is, on our program, but, you know, we feel good about how we planned ahead for this project, and, we've embedded some risk around the, the supply chain and, and inflationary risk in the program. So, right now we feel good about the 20% margin, starting point and then growing from there.

Nigel Coe (Managing Director)

Great. Thanks, Louis. And by the way, congratulations on the order. Fantastic news! And then maybe just a follow-up on the CEO succession. You know, obviously, it's now been several months in progress, so just wondering where you are on finding, you know, the person to fill those big shoes.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Yeah, no, you know, as I said in my prepared remarks, the search committee has been working hard at this and, they're making progress. We're down to a select few, and so our expectation is that, we should be able to make an announcement in, you know, the near future.

Nigel Coe (Managing Director)

Okay, great. Thank you.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Next question comes from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Joe Ritchie (Managing Director)

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Morning, Joe.

Robert Rehard (CFO)

Morning, Joe.

Joe Ritchie (Managing Director)

So I'm gonna. I'll focus my questions on the E-Pod offering. So, Louis, I'm curious to. I know you referenced multiple data center projects, but I'm curious, are you selling into multiple customers too, or is this one single customer? And who are your customers? Are you selling directly into just the integrators or the co-locators, hyperscalers? Just any color you can give to that would be great.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

You know, Joe, thanks for the question. You know, consistent with our prior practices, though, here, we're not gonna provide a lot of detail. And of course, we have confidentiality agreements in place as well, and so we wouldn't be able to provide specifics. But you kind of answered the question correctly. We are selling into colo hyperscaler. It is multiple customers and multiple data center projects in North America.

Joe Ritchie (Managing Director)

Okay, great. That's helpful. And then how do I think about, like, the content per megawatt? So it's a big number, right, the $735 million. How—like, what content per megawatt are you actually providing with these, with these E-Pods? And then also, I'm just very curious, is this mostly for like, low voltage, medium voltage type, switchgear and other power equipment that's going inside of it? Thank you.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Yeah, Joe, it's a great question, and unfortunately, I'm not gonna be able to answer the first part of the question. I don't have the specifics there. But we, you know, as we've talked about in the past, Regal has low voltage and medium voltage switchgear, paralleling switchgear, low voltage power distribution units, and automatic transfer switches. Our part of the bill of material is around 40%-50%. The other part of the bill of material is gonna be things like the container, UPSs, and so that's what makes up the project offering. I'll make sure that I'm better prepared next time, though, on the power question you asked. But hopefully that gives you a little perspective.

Joe Ritchie (Managing Director)

Yeah, no, no worries. I appreciate the color. Thanks, guys.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Yeah. Thanks, Joe.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Christopher Glynn from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Christopher Glynn (Equity Analyst)

Yeah, thanks. Sticking with the pods still. So, you know, $735 million out of a $400 million pipeline a few months ago. Curious if you could provide any color on what that pipeline looks like now. And, you know, could we see another quarter of orders like this or even more than one over the next year?

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Yeah, Chris, I appreciate the question, and, you know, my, my answer right now is likely not. The pipeline's about $600 million in size for all of our data center business. And, but, you know, when you think about capacity and the fact that we're pretty filled up through 2027, I don't expect large orders. But I say that, and our sales teams for this business are incentivized to grow this business beyond the projects that we've already won today. And so do expect that this is gonna be an area of focus for Regal and that we will talk about data center opportunities for many quarters to come.

Christopher Glynn (Equity Analyst)

Okay. Then, I'm not sure if you gave the CapEx guide. I'd like to hear that. And also on the $200 million+ robotic automation funnel, are you incumbent there? Is that funnel stuff you're already specified on?

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

I'll take the second part of your question and pass the first to Rob. The $200 million funnel, the answer is yes. We are on some of it. We're already specified on some of that funnel, and then others we're working and building relationships and, you know, I just saw a report recently from our team on humanoid, as an example. There's 10 key OEMs that we're targeting in the U.S. three of them, we are on their platforms, and we're selling subassemblies. Seven of them, we're still working on getting integrated. So it. My answer on the $200 million, although maybe a little more detailed than you needed, was that it's a mix.

Robert Rehard (CFO)

Great. And from a CapEx perspective, we're looking at about $120 million in CapEx in the year, primarily to support growth and then some of the scope for activities, the supply chain realignments that are currently in the plan to achieve the $40 million in cost synergies that, as I stated earlier, are not embedded in our current guidance, but gives us a degree of risk mitigation, if you will, as we approach the year.

Christopher Glynn (Equity Analyst)

Okay. And then, separately, you. Thank you for that. And, and you said, IPS backlog was up 6% year-over-year?

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Yes, that's correct.

Robert Rehard (CFO)

Yes.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Coming into the year, IPS's backlog is up 6% as compared to the same period last year.

Christopher Glynn (Equity Analyst)

Great. Thank you.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Yeah. Thanks, Chris.

Operator (participant)

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Louis Pinkham for closing remarks.

Louis Pinkham (CEO)

Thank you, operator, and thanks to our investors and analysts for joining us today. My closing message today is simple: Our growth strategy is working, and we are gaining momentum. This is apparent in our improving organic sales growth and in our tremendous order and backlog growth. And we see so much more opportunity ahead of us as we continue to execute our growth playbook across our secular markets, with additional upside to the extent our end markets improve. Encouragingly, we are seeing early positive signs in a number of key markets. In short, I believe we are better positioned than ever before to create increasingly significant value for our stakeholders in 2026 and beyond. Thank you again for joining us today, and thank you for your interest in Regal Rexnord.

Operator (participant)

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.