Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- Regal Rexnord's Automation and Motion Control (AMC) segment is experiencing strong order growth, with AMC orders up 12% in Q2 and up roughly 10% in July , indicating positive momentum and setting the stage for revenue growth in the second half and into next year. Management noted that about one-third of these orders are expected to convert to revenue in the second half of 2024, with the remainder in 2025.
- The company anticipates a significant improvement in margins in the second half due to a favorable shift in mix towards higher-margin businesses within AMC, such as discrete factory automation and medical. Management expects AMC adjusted EBITDA margins to increase by approximately 100 basis points from Q3 to Q4, driven by higher volumes and improved mix.
- The Power Efficiency Solutions (PES) segment is showing signs of recovery in the residential HVAC market, with orders up low-single digits in the quarter , and sales in the third quarter are forecasted to be up low-single digits. As a leader in the variable speed motor market in residential HVAC, Regal Rexnord is well-positioned to benefit from the rebound in this market.
- Delayed Revenue Recognition in AMC Segment: Despite increased orders in the Automation and Motion Control (AMC) segment, approximately two-thirds of these orders are scheduled for delivery in late 2024 or early 2025, which may delay revenue recognition and impact near-term growth.
- Reduced Sales Outlook for AMC Segment: The company has reduced its full-year sales outlook for the AMC segment, now expecting sales to be down low-single digits instead of flat, due to a softer second-half ramp with delivery dates on new orders shifting into 2025.
- Weakness in Key End Markets Impacting IPS Segment: The Industrial Powertrain Solutions (IPS) segment is experiencing weakness in the agriculture and construction equipment markets, which are down high-single digits, potentially reflecting demand constraints and impacting overall performance.
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Medium-Term EBITDA Margin Aspirations
Q: Is the 25% EBITDA margin target still achievable?
A: Management feels confident about reaching a 25% EBITDA margin and 40% gross margins. Despite potential top-line volatility, they have control levers like 80/20 initiatives and lean practices to drive margins. They ended Q2 with 38.1% gross margins, and synergies over the next 1.5 years will help achieve the 40% target. -
AMC Margin Improvement
Q: How will AMC margins improve in the second half?
A: AMC margins will benefit from a mix shift toward higher-margin businesses like factory automation and medical. The margin uptick is also supported by synergy improvements, contributing to an increase of about 100 basis points from Q3 to Q4. Factory automation orders were up 9% in Q2, signaling stronger margins ahead. -
Third vs Fourth Quarter Earnings
Q: What's the expected EPS for Q3 and Q4?
A: Q3 EPS is expected to be about $2.50. Earnings will ramp up in Q4 due to higher sales and margin improvements, with margins improving by about 100 basis points from Q3 to Q4. The improvement is driven by mix shift and synergies, with no significant changes below the line except for a slight reduction in interest expense. -
AMC Revenue and Margin Outlook
Q: Will AMC revenue improve after Q3?
A: AMC revenue is expected to be relatively flat sequentially into Q3, with a step-up in Q4. Orders support this outlook, with AMC orders up roughly 10% in July and a book-to-bill ratio over 1.1 in factory automation. Margins will improve due to mix shift and synergies. -
Order Dynamics and Back Half Expectations
Q: Are orders meeting expectations for the second half?
A: Orders met expectations in Q2, with AMC orders up 12%. July orders continue to be strong, with AMC up roughly 10%, IPS up 3.5%, and overall orders up about 5%. The timing of orders affects backlog placement, but underlying market demand remains solid. -
Automation Improvement and Macro Outlook
Q: Is automation improving despite macro headwinds?
A: Management is confident about automation improving in the second half, with orders in discrete factory automation up 9% in Q2. The book-to-bill ratio in factory automation was over 1.1. They expect both sequential and year-over-year improvement, reflecting current macroeconomic conditions. -
July Orders Conversion to Revenue
Q: How much of July orders will convert to 2024 revenue?
A: About one-third of July orders will convert to second-half 2024 revenue, with the remaining two-thirds flowing into 2025. The backlog is filling nicely, and no significant lift in orders is needed to achieve Q4 guidance. -
IPS Outperformance and Growth Drivers
Q: How is IPS outperforming the market?
A: IPS is outperforming due to cross-sell synergies and Powertrain growth initiatives, contributing about 2% to performance. Cross-selling opportunities are up 190% year-over-year, with only 10% of customers currently buying two or more products. This strategy strengthens their position despite weak end markets. -
PES Segment Outlook
Q: What's the outlook for the PES segment?
A: PES performed slightly above expectations in Q2, with residential HVAC orders up low-single digits. Q3 sales are forecasted to be up low-single digits in resi HVAC, supported by a book-to-bill ratio of 1.02. The rest of PES, including general commercial, still faces pressure. -
PES Sales Step-Up Visibility
Q: Is there visibility on the PES sales increase from Q2 to Q3?
A: The company expects a PES sales increase of about $30-35 million from Q2 to Q3. They have confidence due to the short-cycle nature of the business, with backlog covering about two months. Q2 residential HVAC orders were up low-single digits, and the book-to-bill ratio of 1.02 supports the expected Q3 increase. -
IPS Market Dynamics
Q: What's the impact of different markets on IPS?
A: Agricultural and construction markets are down high-single digits, likely due to demand constraints rather than destocking. Marine, power generation, and metals and mining are up high-single digits. Cross-selling activities help IPS outperform despite ISM and PMI indices below 50. -
Discrete Automation Revenue Bridge
Q: How will discrete automation revenue change from Q2 to Q4?
A: Discrete automation is expected to improve in the second half, with revenues around flat to low-single digits. Factory automation orders were up 9% in Q2, and the AMC segment is guided to be down low-single digits for the full year.
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