Sequans Communications - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Welcome to the Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Sequans Earnings Conference Call for 2025. My name is Shannon. I will be your operator for today's call. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to David Hanover, Investor Relations. David, you may begin.

David Hanover (EVP)

Thank you, operator. Thank you to everyone participating in today's call. Joining me on the call from Sequans Communications are Georges Karam, CEO and Chairman, and Deborah Choate, CFO. Before turning the call over to Georges, I would like to remind our participants of the following important information on behalf of Sequans. First, Sequans issued an earnings press release this morning, and you'll find a copy of the release on the company's website at www.sequans.com under the newsroom section. Second, this conference call contains projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or our future financial performance and other potential financing sources.

All statements other than present and historical facts and conditions contained in this release, including any statements regarding our business strategy, cost optimization plans, strategic options, the ability to enter into new strategic agreements, expectations for sales, our ability to convert our pipeline of revenue, and our objectives for future operations, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended. These statements are only predictions and reflect our current beliefs and expectations with respect to future events and are based on assumptions and subject to risk and uncertainties and subject to change at any time. We operate in a very competitive and rapidly changing environment. New risks emerge from time to time.

Given these risks and uncertainties, you should not rely on or place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Actual events or results may differ materially from those contained in the projections or forward-looking statements. More information on factors that could affect our business and financial results are included on our public filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Now I'd like to hand the call over to Georges Karam. Please go ahead, Georges.

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. I'd like to start with a brief update on our capital allocation framework and how we are balancing execution of our IoT semiconductor business with the management of our digital asset treasury, all in support of long-term shareholder value creation. First and foremost, we remain focused on executing our IoT strategy and advancing our 5G product roadmap in a disciplined manner. Our objective is to unlock the full strategic value of the IoT business for our shareholders, and that remains our top operational priority. At the same time, we continue to manage our Bitcoin digital asset treasury thoughtfully with the goal of extracting the full value underlying our Bitcoin holdings and our treasury structure.

Since launching our Bitcoin strategy, we have been deliberate in how we assess market conditions and the tools available to us, always with a focus on actions we believe can create per-share value in an accretive way. In the current environment where many digital asset treasury peers are trading below an MNAV of one, we believe the most value accretive lever available to us has been repurchasing ADS when our share price implies a significant discount to our net cash and net digital asset value. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased approximately 9.7% of the company's outstanding ADSs. In addition, our board has approved a new ADS repurchase program authorizing the buyback of up to an additional 10% of the outstanding ADSs. Overall, we are taking a balanced and disciplined approach to capital management.

This includes right-sizing our operating expenses, continuing to invest in our most important R&D program, which is our 5G eRedCap chip, and allocating capital to the treasury only when it's clearly accretive while maintaining flexibility to evaluate our options as market conditions evolve. To provide some context around our balance sheet, with Bitcoin holdings end of Q4 and Bitcoin currently at approximately $70,000, our Bitcoin NAV is about $150 million. After adding our end-of-Q4 cash balance and netting out convertible debt, our net cash equivalent position exceeds $68 million. Importantly, beyond our Bitcoin and cash assets, the company's valuation should also reflect the significant value represented by our IoT revenue pipeline and our 5G and RF transceiver IP portfolio. We intend to remain patient and optimistic, staying disciplined and focused on actions that we believe can drive long-term per-share value. Turning now to the operational side of the business.

Our IoT semiconductor business continues to build momentum. In the fourth quarter, it generated $7 million in revenue, which was in line with our prior expectations. Revenue in the quarter was predominantly product-based, with more than 94% coming from product sales and roughly 6% from services, reflecting strong incremental growth in the product shipments. For the full year 2025, total revenue was approximately $27.2 million. This figure includes a meaningful amount of non-recurring Qualcomm-related revenue resulting from the deal we closed with them in 2024. On an adjusted basis, the underlying business was closer to $20 million, and our fourth quarter run rate clearly demonstrates the ramp we have been driving throughout the year. Looking ahead to 2026, our internal plan currently targets approximately $40 million-$45 million of total global revenue, supported by improving visibility and a significant order backlog.

Our outlook is further supported by the strength of our design win pipeline and the increasing percentage of projects now in production. We are exiting 2025 with the revenue funnel exceeding $550 million in potential three-year product revenue, including over $300 million from design win projects. Of those design wins, 44% have already reached production and are generating revenue, up from 38% end-of-Q3. Assuming no changes to customer forecasts, this represents approximately $132 million of potential three-year revenue from production stage projects alone. During the fourth quarter, we added 9 new customer projects to our design win pipeline, and 3 existing projects transitioned into production. We expect this momentum to continue through 2026, with the target of having over 50% of our current design win projects in production by the end of June.

Our product pipeline continues to be driven primarily by our 4G Cat M and Cat 1bis technologies, as well as our RF transceiver product, which supports a wide range of software-defined radio applications. We are also seeing early engagements around 5G eRedCap, which we view as the successor to 4G in IoT deployments. Smart metering, telematics, and asset tracking remain our strongest verticals, followed by security, e-health and medical, and other industrial applications. From a product family perspective, Cat M remains a meaningful growth driver in 2026, led by asset tracking and smart metering deployments, including expanded program now entering production with customers such as Honeywell and Itron. Cat 1bis is positioned for a breakout year in 2026, supported by multiple customer ramps, in telematics, and security. In RF transceivers, we have committed backlog in place, with additional demand expected in the second half of the year.

We also expect to begin seeing meaningful revenue from our 5G licensee partner in China. Demand for 5G eRedCap continues to strengthen. Mobile network operators in the U.S. are accelerating the transition from 4G to 5G to reform spectrum, and IoT applications remain the final bottleneck in completing that transition. This is why having a 5G eRedCap solution as early as possible is critical. We continue to make strong progress on this program and expect to receive our first test chips this quarter, with customer sampling beginning in mid-2027. Our IP licensing and services business is now fully integrated into our go-to-market strategy and represents attractive high-margin upside in 2026. We are currently engaged in discussions with multiple potential partners, with individual opportunities ranging from approximately $2 million-$10 million or more, depending on scope. Beyond revenue, these opportunities expand our reach into new markets and regions.

On the supply chain side, we continue to operate in a dynamic environment. While not indicative of demand, these factors can influence shipment timing and costs quarter to quarter. We are addressing substrate constraints by adding suppliers to reduce single-source exposure and improve resiliency. We are also seeing memory pricing and capacity pressures, which affect both our product and our customers' devices. We are working to pass through these cost increases where appropriate while maintaining strong customer relationships. Also, we are coordinating closely with customers on ordering and delivery schedules. At this stage, we expect little to no impact on our business in the first half of 2026 and limited impact in the second half. Looking ahead, we are focused on reducing cash burn over the course of the year, with the objective of reaching a breakeven run rate by Q4.

We are taking a disciplined approach to operating expenses, right-sizing where appropriate, while protecting the innovation that underpins our differentiated position. Working capital dynamics may create short-term cash flow variability, but these effects are tied directly to long-term growth. Overall, the fourth quarter underscores our progress in strengthening the core IoT business, improving financial discipline, and maintaining flexibility in our capital strategy as we position the company for sustained growth in 2026 and beyond. For Q1 2026, we currently expect revenue to be around $6.5 million, reflecting normal seasonality with the risk that approximately $1 million of revenue could shift into Q2 due to manufacturing and shipment timing planned for the end of Q1. Based on our backlog and design win pipeline, we expect revenue to ramp through the remainder of the year and continue to believe we can approach cash flow breakeven in Q4.

We continue to evaluate strategic alternatives that could add profitability and unlock additional value across both the IoT business and our treasury strategy. The board is actively reviewing options, and we remain committed to unlocking shareholder value without rushing decisions, particularly at a time when the company is in its strongest position to date. I will now turn the call over to Deborah to review our fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results in greater detail. Deborah?

Deborah Choate (CFO)

Thank you, Georges, and hello, everyone. I'll begin by reviewing our fourth quarter financial results and then discuss our Bitcoin holdings. During the fourth quarter, we experienced several significant events that impacted our statements.

These included a substantial increase in product revenues, a reduction in operating expenses, the early redemption of half of the convertible debt issued in July 2025, the launch of our ADS buyback program, and the sale of Bitcoin to finance these two non-operating initiatives. In Q4 2025, revenues increased 72.6% sequentially, driven primarily by growth in product revenue. Gross margin for the quarter was 37.7% and was impacted by provisions for slow-moving inventory. Excluding these provisions, gross margin would have been approximately 43% compared to 42.4% in the prior quarter. R&D and SG&A expenses declined to a combined total of $11.5 million in Q4, down from $13.6 million in the third quarter. We maintain our goal of continuing to reduce operating expenses over the course of 2026 in order to support our breakeven goals for operating results and cash burn.

We recorded a non-cash impairment charge of $56.9 million related to the mark-to-market value of our Bitcoin holdings in the fourth quarter, compared to an $8.2 million charge in Q3. We also recorded an $8.4 million net realized loss on the sale of Bitcoin. This sale funded the redemption of half of the convertible debt and the repurchase of 9.7% of our ADS. The July issuance of convertible debt and warrants resulted in the recognition of an embedded derivative, which is remeasured at each reporting period. Changes in its value affect our P&L but are entirely non-cash. Similarly, while the convertible debt carries a 0% coupon in the first year, IFRS accounting requires us to recognize significant non-cash interest expense. At the end of October, we redeemed half of the outstanding convertible debt ahead of its normal July 2028 maturity.

This resulted in a $29.1 million loss on early redemption of debt that was primarily non-cash. Reflecting these factors, we reported an IFRS net loss of $87.1 million in Q4, compared with an IFRS net profit of $900,000 in the prior quarter. On a non-IFRS basis, excluding significant non-cash items, we reported a non-IFRS net loss of $18.5 million, or $1.19 per ADS, compared with a non-IFRS net loss of $11.3 million, or $0.81 per ADS in Q3. The realized loss on sale of Bitcoin of $8.4 million is included in the non-IFRS net loss, so we would have been just over $10 million in non-IFRS net loss without this element. Normalized operating cash burn in Q4, including primary working capital movements in inventory and trade payables and receivables, was approximately $7.7 million.

After completing Bitcoin purchases totaling $3.4 million early in the quarter, we later sold Bitcoin to fund $101 million of debt redemption and a $9.4 million ADS buyback sorry, $9.4 million ADS buyback. At year-end 2025, we held 2,139 Bitcoin with a market value of $187.1 million. Of this, 1,617 Bitcoin valued then at $141.5 million were pledged as collateral for the remaining $94.5 million of convertible debt due in July 2028. The remaining 522 Bitcoin valued at year-end at $45.6 million are unencumbered. And with that, I'll turn it back over to Georges.

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

As we close, I want to reiterate that our primary focus remains on executing the IoT business. The fourth quarter reflected continued momentum, with revenue predominantly driven by product shipments.

We are encouraged by the depth and quality of our design win pipeline, with more than 44% of projects now in mass production and additional wins expected throughout the year. With solid demand across Cat M, Cat 1bis, RF transceivers, and early engagement around 5G eRedCap, we believe the IoT business is positioned to continue scaling while our cost discipline supports a clear path toward cash flow breakeven by the end of 2026. At the same time, we have taken a disciplined and value-driven approach to capital allocation. During the fourth quarter, we took actions to repurchase shares where we believed our valuation did not reflect underlying asset value, and we continue to have board authorization in place to pursue additional repurchases as appropriate. These actions reflect our focus on unlocking value on a per-share basis while maintaining flexibility to evaluate additional capital allocation options as market condition evolves.

With that, let's now begin with the Q&A session. Operator, if you don't mind.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Our first question comes from the line of Scott Searle with Roth. Your line is now open.

Scott Searle (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. Thanks for all the detail on the call related to some of the product development activity ongoing. Hey, Georges, just to quickly dive in on the guidance, I'm wondering how you're thinking about licensing in terms of that $40 million-$45 million figure. And I'm wondering if you could reiterate again what you expect the percentage of design wins to be in production at that point in time. I missed that number.

It looks like, just at a quick first cut, $15 million-$16 million exiting the year is kind of what gets you to cash flow breakeven. Then I had a couple of follow-ups.

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

Yeah. Hi, Scott. Thanks for being on the call. So just to start with the guidance, I believe you're reflecting about the guidance for the year. We continue. As you see, Q4 was, as I said, mainly product. I believe Q1 is going to be very close as well on our guidance. We are not expecting except surprises, I will say, because we have many deals and depends which one will close. We have really currently in the backlog, I should say, maybe a couple of million dollars over the year, if you want, of secured licensing. However, we have, as I said, four, five, and more, each one ranging between $2 million and $10 million.

So it's very, very hard to make a projection, if you want, on the number. So we're taking a very conservative approach, assuming maybe we get another $5 million of all this in the year, five to six, that could be secured and bring technically $2 million-$3 million per quarter in the remainder of the year, if you want, after Q1, Q2, Q3, and so on. So this is a little bit our guideline. So the number I gave in terms of projection for the year, in percentage, this means we will have 85% or so, 80%-85% product and only 15% services on this basis, 20% services, something like this. And then I believe the other question was regarding the convergence of. The percentage of product. So when we exit the year, you need to keep in mind we're giving those percentages.

But as you know, each quarter, our design win is increasing. So we're not updating the metric on a quarterly basis. Just for convenience, we'll be updating this every six months to avoid every quarter having sometimes to explain the variation, maybe not linear, and so on. But we are very comfortable that the design win pipeline, the $300 million is today above 300, and we'll continue growing towards the year. And on those 300, our estimation, at least 50% of them will be in production in June, in June this year. So obviously, if you project year-end, you need to add, I could say, maybe 75% towards the year-end. There is no guidance on this. But for mid-year, it's more than 50 for sure.

Scott Searle (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Gotcha. Very helpful.

And Georges, just in terms of the breakeven then, in terms of where you guys are reducing the OpEx, it sounds like it's in the mid- to high-teens then would be the exit rate and trajectory. Okay.

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

I remain on the number, which is essentially, honestly, the mix of services and product can give you a different number. Obviously, we understand for the margin. In our model, we're assuming the 15, 16 number where $3 million of this is services, if you want, and the remaining product.

Scott Searle (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Gotcha. And if I could follow up on the transceiver front, this seems like it's one of the hidden gems in the business. I think in the past, you've talked about that maybe being north of $5 million on an annual basis.

I'm wondering what the current thoughts are, design activity, and how that momentum is looking into the back half of 2026 and into 2027. How big could that opportunity be?

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

Well, we have. As you know, the acquisition of ACP gave us directly a couple of customers to whom today they move into production. And we are generating revenue from them every quarter. So we have even a backlog in 2026 from them for the first half. So we'll see. Sometimes the forecast for the full year with Chinese customers could be a little bit I don't want to give guidance on this. But we believe we could be doing this year, maybe in the RF business, $7 million or so. I mean, in any case, more in the north of $5 million for sure. And this can be getting up. If some upside, then we'll go beyond the $7 million.

So this is how we see it. And also, as you know, the RF technology, we launched this with many customers, new customers. To those new customers, we're sampling now R&D board and sampling chips, and they are designing product. And we have really a few tier one already working on this. It's more, to be honest, us being able to support them and help them. This is what we are working on this. But I don't expect big revenue in 2026 from them because they are all in the application, like drone, defense. And it takes time to build those products and come to market. But this could be meaningful. This could be a business for sure, maybe in the $15 million-$20 million run rate.

This is doable if we are successful, keeping the Chinese customer and add those customers that we can get for defense and public safety application and other software defined radio application.

Scott Searle (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Gotcha. And lastly, if I could, Georges, you had some comments on the memory side of the business. It sounds like indirectly, you guys are managing that well, and you're not seeing too much in terms of headwinds from your end customers. I'm wondering if you could provide some expanded thoughts on that. And then just the competitive landscape, you guys certainly have a strong position with Cat 1bis. It seems like, I don't know if running the table is the right expression, but you guys are certainly winning a lot of business on that front and gaining some momentum. And so I just wonder if you could comment on the competitive landscape for Cat 1bis.

And then as it relates to eRedCap, which will be the next big cycle in 2027 and beyond, kind of what you're seeing from a competitive aspect. Thanks.

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

Okay. On the supply chain, just to be clear, the industry is completely today. I mean, it's not like the direct memory of Sequans. It's not our technology because, as you know, our technology is not in AI. But AI and geopolitics as well, combined with geopolitics, is obviously the demand on AI is eating most of the capacity. And obviously, the OSAT and all the packaging material and all this increasing price or making constraints on supply, increasing lead time, and so on. We struggle on the substrate rates. We continue to watch this very closely. We managed to secure at least our Q3 production. We are in good shape on this. But despite this, we're working on multiple sources.

But we are seeing price increase, unfortunately. And just only that's how it is. On the memory, again, we're not using the memory that you need in AI. But that's how it is. All this business is connected, right? I mean, so if the AI, big memory, the price are getting up because there is demand, this is impacting as well smaller memory and a flash, RAM and flash that we use next to our chip, if you want, our module and so on. So we have direct impact on this as well in supply and the pricing, unfortunately. And we are working all out the price and secure the capacity with multiple partners. We have double source on the memory as well to be sure that we have the supply. But unfortunately, I believe we are going to have the cost increase is happening.

We are reflecting this to our customer. We are already discussing with our customer the impact and trying to pass those costs to them. That's how it is. I believe we'll see more of this impact in our number in the second half of the year. The first half, we have some backlog and so on. At least Q1, we have backlog for this on all the pricing. And it's very hard to change the price when you are shipping at the same time with customers. So it's something to watch. And as well, customers and the customers, they could be building devices where they are using big CPU and memory, not in all the application, but in some application, they need this. And obviously, they could face shortage or challenge on the memory they need to get for their own device. So there is tension in the market.

I don't qualify it like in the COVID days, but it's there. We're spending time on it. My team is working day and night on securing supply, talking with the customers, and so on to be sure that we can pass the 2026 and 2027 in good shape because it seems like this will continue until 2028. That's what I'm hearing. Now, talking about the competitive landscape and the product, indeed, on Cat 1bis, the two guys that they have, Cat 1bis, it's not Chinese. It's Qualcomm and Sequans. So it's really the duopoly market. And most of our design wins are around Cat 1bis, I would say. It's not like Cat M. We're not doing anything anymore. We still have Cat M business.

But I believe we have a big piece of the pipeline driven by the Cat 1bis because, obviously, it's a new product ramping and because also on the competitive landscape limitation. And obviously, the customer have the choice between using Sequans technology or Sequans technology, just only whether they buy it from us or from Qualcomm. That's how it is because it's the same technology behind it, which is good position us, I would say, to push this technology further. And on eRedCap, I was at CES. And there is really big movement. And I will have MWC in a couple of weeks meeting with the carriers, AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. All of them, they are really eager to get the 4G frequency band and move them to the 5G. In other words, they need and they have the obligation to get those frequency.

And as you know, the existing 5G network don't offer any category for the IoT. The IoT remains on the 4G. And the broadband and the phones, they are moving to 5G. So it's easy on this side. The IoT is more complicated, mainly because there is also commitment for 10 years business. Remetering and so on. So it's really becoming a very, very hot topic. A lot of discussion at CES were around this, where the carrier would like to see the ecosystem moving faster because the soonest they have eRedCap, the soonest they can transition the new devices to eRedCap technology, even if it's falling back to 4G. So you'll have 5G falling back to 4G. But at least the technology will be or the product will be future-proof.

This gives the freedom to the carrier to switch off the 4G sooner or at least on time as they plan it and not to drag this longer. They can recover the frequency to put them on the 5G. Here again, we are, I believe, in a leading position. It's very early. I don't want to. It's very hard to talk about it when the customer didn't announce product yet. We started the 5G, as you know, many years before, working on the broadband. We licensed the 5G to a partner. So we have a lot of those pieces of the puzzle already in hand. When we kick off our eRedCap chip last year, we used a lot of this. Here we go.

After one year of the work, we have a test chip coming to the company this quarter, end of this quarter. From there, we start the testing and continue the development. We believe we'll be ready for what we call it the IoDT testing with the infrastructure vendor around beginning of 2027. We'll be sampling to customer mid-year or, let's say, the second half of 2027. This is our timeline. We're executing on this. We are getting a lot of push to accelerate this. Carriers would like us even to do it faster, if you want. I believe we are in leading position with this timeline.

Scott Searle (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks so much. I'll get back in the queue.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mike Grondahl with Northland. Your line is now open.

Mike Grondahl (Head of Equities & Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah. Thank you. Georges, with 44% of those design wins in mass production, could you talk a little bit about the breadth of customers and just sort of average order size?

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

Yeah. Hi, Mike. Essentially, those 44, in other words, as I said, this is more than $130 million three years revenue. So obviously, if you divide by three, it gives you a little bit where we stand, above $40 million in linear. It's ramping year one, year two, year three for the new projects. For all the projects, they are there in their second year. For example, the tracking business is moving very well. We have customers, they range buying again, if I take Cat M, in the million unit, 400,000 unit, 300,000 unit.

The space, we are really in good shape where we have matured the product shipping, few metering finally entering into production with Honeywell and Itron, and a lot in the tracking device. Tracking, we have many customers. We have some of them, as I said, they do one million units a year and more than one million units a year. And others, they do 200K. So it's really a variety of order there. But when you sum them all up, Mike, to get the order of magnitude, first of all, it's many projects. I mean, I don't have the number in mind, but I don't want to give you a wrong number, but it's more than 30 for sure projects. So it's diversified on many applications, as I said, already all the segments we are talking about. Some of them are in Cat M. Some of them are in Cat 1.

We have tier one customers. We have some small customer, but not too small. I mean, small in the sense that they work well. They do 50,000 units per quarter, and they are there buying every quarter and moving on.

Mike Grondahl (Head of Equities & Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. In terms of your break-even cash goal by 4Q, do you expect a lot of progress on the $11.5 million you got to for R&D and SG&A combined?

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

Yeah. I mean, we continue driving this down. We put the guide obviously, on the OpEx point of view, will be a little bit we believe in the second half of the year, around $10.5 million. This is our target. Obviously, this includes depreciation. So you need to take off the depreciation. When we're talking about cash flow break-even, we're counting on a cash basis, if you want.

So somehow, you have in this $10.5 million, maybe around $1.5 million depreciation. So the company will be using $9 million, if we speak in cash, I would say, per quarter. And obviously, if you add $3 million in service, this gives you $6 million left because service will be 100% margin, more or less, I mean, very close to 100%. So then the product revenue needs to cover the $6 million. And if you have a gross margin around on the product, 45%, you can do it with $13 million. So it gives you a little bit the number where we are there. Obviously, this can vary because the mix can change. We can have a gross margin higher or a little bit lower. And obviously, the services could be higher. And then we can accelerate the break-even, or the product could be higher than this number as well.

Mike Grondahl (Head of Equities & Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. Then just lastly, it sounds like the progress on 5G, the eRedCap chip, is going well. Revenue, do you still sort of have that penciled in mid-2028? Any updated thoughts on there?

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

Yeah. I believe, honestly, yeah. I mean, the revenue is mid-2028. Why? Because you need to think about it how it's going to work, Mike. Ericsson and all the infrastructure vendor, they are building their software release to support eRedCap and bring it to the network without giving too much detail. But this is targeted, I would say, to be in the network towards end of this year, beginning of next year in testing. Then the carrier will deploy it. And then from there, when they are ready, we can test end-to-end, right? I mean, in other words, even if I have it ready today, it doesn't matter.

I need to have the infrastructure working. So we are synchronizing with Ericsson to come on time doing the testing, if you want, soon. Once we have the testing, we have the proof that the chip is working. From there, you can have our first alpha customer engaging with us. And depending on what they are doing, if it's just only a replacement on existing product, this could be fast because it's not a new design. We will give them a module which is pin-to-pin compatible with the previous one. And it will be running in Cat M or Cat 1bis plus 5G. So they can go fast and in 2028 can introduce product. If you have other customers where they are building completely new product that takes two years or two years and a half to develop, and they start with 5G, obviously, you don't see the revenue in 2028.

You see it in 2029. But more or less, the way we are seeing the push to have the customer adopting 5G faster, we feel good about seeing revenue in 2028 from this.

Mike Grondahl (Head of Equities & Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Fedor Shabalin with B. Riley. Your line is now open.

Thank you very much, operator, and good morning. Good afternoon, everyone. Georges and Deborah, thanks for detailed review of the quarter. You already talked about near-term guidance, but I wanted to touch a little bit for maybe mid-term on 2027.

How should we think about the revenue cadence heading into 2027, specifically the pace at which the remaining 60% of the pipeline converts to production revenue and whether the combination of material LTE-M, Cat 1bis programs alongside early 5G engagement positions the company to meaningfully inflect beyond the cash flow break-even milestone that is targeted for the end of 2026?

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

Yeah. Fedor, yeah, you're absolutely right. I mean, the pipeline is there. And when you talk about those design win converting, they are there, right? I mean, when they convert, they bring revenue, and they stay there. They don't disappear over one year or two years. This is really long-term business. When we talk about metering, tracking, I mean, there is no project in the company that doesn't live five years, if you want. And some of them, they live seven years, eight years, all those metering segments.

So whatever we are winning will continue to be there. And the pipeline continue converting and bring revenue. So just only if we take what we have in hand and if you talk about we have 44%, let's round it, I would say. So this means we still have the other half. So by definition, we can double. That's how it is. The growth is big, right? I mean, if you assume all this just only convert, and they will be we don't lose anything. The customer will go to someone else. But you could have, I would say, some accidents, some customers planning for some big forecast, and they do less and so on.

But it's a diversified pipeline that gives me confidence that our business will continue growing, not to give a guidance of saying it's going to be I mean, the doubling is not it's built in the model, if you want. Now, obviously, you could argue how this can be developing every quarter, and it will continue growing. And maybe we'll be in a 60%+ growth. That's at least what I see in 2027.

Fedor Shabalin (Research Analyst)

Thank you, Georges.

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

That will continue to 2028. And in 2028, where we have really I believe, really, the eRedCap, if we execute well, you need to imagine that the eRedCap 5G, it's over. There is no Chinese at all, completely. You have only a couple of players that they can bring this to the market.

This gives us an opportunity to increase our market share as well because we have now an established customer base. We're not going to win a new customer with the 5G. We're going to go to the same customer and support them with a new product line and expand our market share with a new customer, if you want. So I believe as well that the 5G will be a great catalyst in 2028 to add another growth drivers to our revenue year-over-year.

Fedor Shabalin (Research Analyst)

Thank you. This is very helpful. My follow-up is about buybacks. So with this stock trading at where it is trading now and given the authorization to repurchase an additional 10% of outstanding ADSs, can you provide color on the expected pace and cadence of buybacks in Q1, specifically Q1 2026?

I mean, specifically, whether the current share price level has accelerated repurchased activity quarter to date and how you balance the urgency of buying back stock at these levels against preserving liquidity. Thank you.

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

Yeah. Obviously, Fedor, I mean, we have the authorization. We are free on doing this. Obviously, when we are in the window, which is locked, we cannot do it. We can do it when the window is open. And essentially, we're assessing, really, this versus because you need to assess two things. You need to assess what's happening as well on the Bitcoin, the Bitcoin price, and the value of the share versus the net cash. So the two together are going to drive, I would say, the pace. But if you want, the intention there is clear.

We believe if our share price is not appreciated, it's good things to do to buy back shares and, I would say, reduce the number of shares outstanding. So it's like giving cash, giving money to all our shareholders, sticking with us. So then the decision is there. We'll be executing on it. I'm not going to tell you if in Q1 we'll buy all the 10% or only 3% or 5% because it depends, really, on many dynamics that I'm observing now with the Bitcoin price and so on. So we need to watch this carefully and make decisions based on this as well.

Fedor Shabalin (Research Analyst)

Thank you very much, Georges. I appreciate the color. And continue your best of luck.

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

Thank you, Fedor.

Deborah Choate (CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question at this time, please press star one one on your touch-tone telephone.

Our next question comes from the line of Jacob Stephan with Lake Street Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Jacob Stephan (Senior Research Analyst)

Hi, guys. Appreciate you taking the questions. Since a lot of questions have been asked, maybe help me unpack Q1 guidance a little bit. I know you said $6.5 million. Sounds like some of that could shift, but without affecting the balance of the year. I guess, what portion of that is subject to shifting later into the year? And maybe just help us walk through that.

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

Yeah. I mean, Jacob, hi. And essentially, it happens, again, going to the condition of the market, even on TSMC, even on the wafer side. We have the capacity. It's all fine. But it's really stretch in timing. It's like you're pulling in stuff, accelerating even a week. It's a little bit complicated. The fabs are loaded.

Technically, what I'm saying is that we have order, right? I mean, we have orders covering Q1 and Q2. And we have backlog even covering Q3 and Q4, some of our backlog. And in our guidance, some of those orders, we should be able to ship them in Q1. But they are really on the edge of Q1. And as I'm speaking, some of those dates are not 100% confirmed. You see the work in progress. So in theory, they are there. But you're not at risk you are at risk of having slippage of few days. We're not talking about it could be really a week. And unfortunately, I have a few decent orders happening there. And if they don't come in the quarter, they shift to Q2. But they're not lost. It's just only this will beef up, if you want, my guidance.

I mean, you should sum Q1 and Q2 to look to the performance, I would say, on the company. So this is where we are. So just to be cautious on this. If I do the math today, I believe we should manage it, the guidance I gave, the $6.5. But there is a little bit of risk. So I want to be clear with the market.

Jacob Stephan (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. Very helpful. And then maybe touch on the price increases a little bit. For your customers, how susceptible have or I guess, how receptive have they been to overall price increases?

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

Well, to be honest, surprisingly, I should say the customer I don't know how much no one is receptive for the price increase in general. But what I like this time, the industry learned what happened in the COVID.

And the customers are reacting positive, if you want, around what's going on. In other words, they appreciate that you go and tell them that we could have a supply problem. We could have a price problem. And sit down with the customers and talk about the issues and so on. Everyone is taking for granted the memory. The memory is really everyone knows and clear because the memory, by the way, people are always prepared for the memory. It gets up and down all the time. So when you tell them it's up, they read it in the news. They read it everywhere. When you go to the material, the cost of the gold, even if everything is clear, right? I mean, when you give the number, so it's a little bit more challenging. But it's okay.

I mean, I don't call it like we're managing this customer by customer. We have sometimes obligation. But the reception is positive. It's not like no way because at the end of the day, it's not the choice of Sequans, right? I mean, we're not trying to abuse the system. We're trying just only to be transparent with our customer and secure supply. And this forces us somehow to pay a little bit more because that's how it is in the industry in Asia today. If you take, for example, all the geopolitics pushed many guys outside of China. So you have less competition in the packaging from China. So everything is happening outside of China between Taiwan, mainly. But you have others, obviously, countries around Taiwan. And now, obviously, those guys, they have demand to get more to secure all their they can take all their fab.

You have a big customer willing to give them check in advance and so on. At the same time, you have good reason that the material as well, the packaging material is getting up. So all this combined is pushing the price of the packaging up, the substrate and the packaging as well. TSMC is still okay. TSMC, they remain on they didn't change anything. They are not giving signs that we'll do any change for now, at least for those geometry, which is the regular one. We use the flat, I would say, 40, 22, and even the high FinFET, 16, 12, and so on.

Jacob Stephan (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. Just last question for me. On the Bitcoin treasury strategy, obviously, 2026, the actual interest rate goes up materially. On the convertible debt, I'm just wondering how you're kind of thinking about overall the debt repurchase or redemption.

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

Well, Jacob, I mean, obviously, we're evaluating this specifically as well with the price of the Bitcoin. What I could say, we have a good relationship with the main debt holder. And as you saw in the past, we redeemed 50% of this. So we're considering all our options. Nothing yet decided today. We're looking to the option. But if you ask me my view on this in general, the way we are seeing things, if Bitcoin is not rallying and going to the moon, there is no interest, I would say, to keep the debt forever and better to redeem it sooner than later, if you want. If I have to look to the picture today, there is not too much value creation to be done there.

But we're factoring all this, obviously, and discussing with the board based on all our options and what we should do and when.

Jacob Stephan (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. Very helpful. I appreciate it.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And I'm currently showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to hand the conference back over to Georges Karam for closing remarks.

Georges Karam (CEO and Chairman)

Thank you very much all. Thanks for the questions and being on the call. And happy to see you next opportunity or discuss with you on next opportunity. Thank you very much. Thank you, operator.

Operator (participant)

You're welcome. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. And everyone, have a great day.