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SYSCO CORP (SYY)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 FY25 delivered revenue of $20.2B (+4.5% YoY), GAAP diluted EPS of $0.82 (flat YoY), and adjusted EPS of $0.93 (+4.5% YoY); gross margin was 18.1% (-11 bps YoY) and operating margin 3.5% (-10 bps YoY) .
- International and SYGMA drove strength: International adjusted operating income rose 26.5% to $129M and SYGMA sales rose 10.6% to $2.12B; U.S. Foodservice local case volume declined 0.9% .
- FY25 guidance reiterated: net sales growth 4–5% and adjusted EPS growth 6–7%; buyback upsized to $1.25B (from $1.0B), lifting total cash return target to ~$2.25B (dividends ~$1.0B) .
- Near-term catalysts: second-half $100M+ annualized savings (strategic sourcing, supply chain efficiencies, organizational optimization), clarified international modeling after Mexico JV divestiture (~$500M annualized sales impact, margin accretive) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- International accelerating: “adjusted operating income up 26.5%,” driven by local case growth (+4.7%), procurement synergies, and assortment expansion .
- National sales resilience: volume up 4.3% with strong retention and new wins improving route density and fixed cost coverage .
- Capital returns raised: CFO announced upsized buyback to $1.25B and total cash return to ~$2.25B for FY25 .
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What Went Wrong
- Local case softness: U.S. Foodservice local case volume fell 0.9%, with management citing hurricane impacts and unfavorable holiday timing as headwinds .
- Gross margin dilution YoY: 18.1% (-11 bps) from customer mix shift and timing of strategic sourcing contributions; Sysco Brand penetration eased (U.S. Broadline 36.0%, Local 46.1%) .
- First-half cash flow down: operating cash flow $498M and FCF $331M for first 26 weeks, down vs prior year due to working capital timing and opportunistic inventory purchases .
Financial Results
Non-GAAP adjustments: Q2 adjusted EPS adds $0.06 for restructuring/transformational costs and $0.08 for acquisition-related costs, with tax impacts of -$0.02 each .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “Our International segment… adjusted operating income up 26.5%. Our local business is beginning to show signs of progress, with improvements to our new customer win rate and our Net Promoter Scores” .
- CFO: “We are now on target to return over $2.25 billion to shareholders through share repurchase and dividends in FY ’25” and upsized buyback to $1.25B .
- CEO on second-half trajectory: “We have a direct line of sight… $100 million of annualized savings to benefit both the gross profit line and the operating expense line” .
- CFO on leverage/cash: “We ended the quarter at a 2.76x net debt leverage ratio… operating cash flow ~$498M and free cash flow ~$331M for the first half” .
Q&A Highlights
- Second-half tailwinds: Management expects stronger adjusted EPS growth in H2, driven by strategic sourcing, supply chain efficiencies, and organizational optimization (~$100M annualized savings) .
- Local case dynamics: Q2 local cases down 0.9%; headwinds from hurricanes and holiday timing; cohorts maturing and new customer wins set to improve H2 local growth .
- Inflation outlook: Enterprise product cost inflation ~2.1%; higher center-of-plate inflation (dairy/eggs/proteins); outlook excludes potential tariffs .
- Compensation model: Q1 disruption behind them; top performers “earning more,” retention stabilized; intentional pacing of sales hires by market ROI .
- International cadence: Broad-based margin expansion across markets; continued runway for EBIT margin improvement, with bolt-on specialty additions aiding growth .
Estimates Context
S&P Global consensus estimates could not be retrieved due to provider limits (Daily Request Limit exceeded). As a result, we cannot assess beat/miss versus Wall Street consensus for Q2 FY25 revenue and EPS at this time [GetEstimates error].
Key Takeaways for Investors
- International strength and SYGMA momentum offset local weakness; second-half mix improvements and strategic sourcing should support margin expansion .
- Upsized buyback ($1.25B) and ~$2.25B total cash return underpin support for TSR; dividend cadence reaffirmed (recent $0.51/share declaration) .
- Near-term local volume recovery hinges on salesforce retention, cohort maturation, and service-level improvements—watch H2 local case growth trajectory and Sysco Brand mix .
- Modeling note: Mexico JV divestiture reduces reported international sales (~$500M annualized) but is margin accretive—monitor reported vs underlying trends with management’s disclosure .
- Cash flow softness in H1 tied to working capital/inventory timing; management guides FY25 conversion of ~70% adjusted EBITDA to operating cash and ~50% to FCF—track H2 cash conversion .
- Macro remains manageable with ~2% inflation; center-of-plate inflation elevated; tariff risk remains an external variable excluded from current assumptions .
- Stock narrative likely driven by H2 execution on $100M+ savings, improving local cadence, and continued international margin expansion—near-term prints that show sequential local improvement and sourcing benefits should serve as catalysts .