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    Uber Technologies Inc (UBER)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 31, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$79.43Last close (Oct 30, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$74.50Open (Oct 31, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-4.93(-6.21%)
    • Uber delivered a record quarterly GAAP operating profit of over $1 billion, with gross bookings up 20% year-over-year in constant currency, indicating strong profitable growth and increasing financial leverage.
    • The company's advertising business grew nearly 80% year-over-year, with significant potential for further growth, particularly in areas like sponsored listings for groceries and mobility advertising, which can increase margins and driver earnings.
    • Expansion into less dense markets presents a significant growth opportunity in both Mobility and Delivery, expected to be a major tailwind for Uber's core business over the next 2 to 3 years and beyond.
    • Rising insurance costs in the U.S. are leading to fare increases and slowing transaction growth in Uber's Mobility segment. Dara Khosrowshahi stated that as they pass on increased insurance costs to consumers, especially in high-cost states like New Jersey and California, they observe a typical elasticity where "as price goes up, the transaction growth slows down a bit."
    • Mobility gross bookings growth has decelerated to 24%, down 3 percentage points from the previous quarter. This slowdown raised questions from analysts about any unusual factors impacting the business or surprises in the quarter.
    • Autonomous vehicle services, such as those offered by Waymo in San Francisco, are capturing market share in certain areas, achieving "category position in the high single digits or low double digits," potentially posing a competitive threat to Uber's core Mobility business.
    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Mobility YoY Growth
    Q3 2024
    Mid-20s year-over-year growth in mobility gross bookings
    26.4% year-over-year revenue growth from Q3 2023 (5,071) to Q3 2024 (6,409)
    Beat
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Mobility Growth

    Q2 2024: 27% growth and a mid-20% outlook ; Q1 2024: 26% growth ; Q4 2023: 24% trip growth.

    Grew 20% on a constant currency basis, marking the 4th consecutive quarter at ≥20%; driven by audience (+13%) and frequency (+4%).

    Consistently bullish across periods

    Delivery Growth

    Q2 2024: Mid-teens growth, 1.1M merchants, expansion into grocery/retail ; Q1 2024: Teens growth overall, grocery up 40%.

    +17% year-over-year; strong margins, driven by cross-promo with Mobility and membership engagement.

    Stable growth, improving profitability

    Advertising

    Q2 2024: Over 1% of Delivery GB, ~$1B run rate ; Q1 2024: ~$900M run rate ; Q4 2023: Emphasized as a key revenue driver.

    Grew nearly 80% year-over-year; now in the mid-1% range of Delivery GB, targeting 2%.

    Continued bullish expansion

    Grocery Profitability

    Q2 2024: Grocery is improving; 15% of Eats users use grocery ; Q1 2024: Not profitable yet but better y/y ; Q4 2023: Won’t be profitable in 2024 but improving.

    Not explicitly detailed; references to CPG partnerships and platform leverage for future profitability.

    Ongoing improvements, potentially significant

    Partnerships (EV/AV)

    Q2 2024: BYD, Waymo partnerships, EV adoption emphasis ; Q1 2024 & Q4 2023: Not mentioned in detail.

    Waymo partnership in Austin/Atlanta; 14 AV partners, plans for further expansion in 2025.

    Increased focus on AV partnerships

    Regulatory Challenges

    Q2 2024: Massachusetts agreement on standards ; Q1 2024: Seattle and NYC impacted volume and courier supply ; Q4 2023: No mention.

    No mention of Seattle, NYC, or Massachusetts.

    No longer frequently discussed

    Rising Insurance Costs

    Q2 2024 & Q1 2024: Not discussed; Q4 2023: Insurance a headwind but addressed via safety tech and captive insurance.

    Highlighted as a U.S. issue, rising ~16% y/y (CPI) but expected to slow; costs passed to riders.

    Newly emphasized in Q3

    Uber For Business (U4B)

    Q2 2024: Not mentioned; Q1 2024: Part of new product category growth ; Q4 2023: Cited among newer products.

    50% y/y growth, ~50% rides are premium; no signs of trade-down.

    Consistently positive trajectory

    User Penetration/Frequency

    Q2 2024: Emphasized under-20% penetration in top 10 countries ; Q1 2024: 15% audience growth, freq +6% ; Q4 2023: Focus on reliability.

    Audience reached record highs, frequency also up aided by strong service quality and Uber One.

    Steady improvements in both penetration & frequency

    Uber One Membership

    Q2 2024: 50% of Delivery GB from members ; Q1 2024: ~$1B in membership fees ; Q4 2023: 19M members, strong retention.

    Reached 25M members, up 70% y/y; members spend 3x more.

    Robust growth & high engagement

    Competitive Pressure (DiDi)

    Q1 2024: DiDi was spending aggressively in Latin America ; Q2 & Q4 2024: No mention.

    No mention in Q3.

    Topic no longer appearing

    AV Profitability Timeline

    Q2 2024: Profits from AV likely 5-10 years away ; Q1 2024: Long-term potential but no specific timeline.

    No mention of long-term AV profitability timeline.

    No recent updates

    New Product Lines (Teen, 2-3W)

    Q2 2024: Teen rides up ~100% , 2-3 wheelers popular in emerging markets ; Q1 2024: Not mentioned; Q4 2023: Teen labeled a favorite product.

    Uber Teen rides up 40% y/y; expansions in two/three-wheelers.

    Continued rollout and growth

    Mobility Sentiment Shift

    Q2 2024: Confidence in mid-20% growth ; Q1 2024: 26% y/y ; Q4 2023: 24% trip growth.

    Maintains low-20% outlook for Q4 after strong Q3; focus on weekdays, U4B.

    Consistently bullish over multiple quarters

    Large Future Impact (Grocery)

    Q2 2024: A “strong story” with profitability improvements ; Q1 2024: On clear path to profitable scale ; Q4 2023: Seen as a major driver.

    Not specifically mentioned, references to strong membership synergy.

    Stable, high potential for future

    1. U.S. Mobility Bookings and Insurance Costs
      Q: How are U.S. mobility bookings trending, and what impacts are insurance costs having?
      A: U.S. mobility continues to grow robustly, remaining Uber's largest market with less than 50% of gross bookings but over 50% of profitability. However, increased commercial insurance costs in states like New Jersey and California have led to higher fares, causing a typical one-to-one elasticity where transaction growth slows as prices rise. Weekday growth is outpacing weekends, with strong performance in Uber For Business, which is up over 50%, and no signs of consumers trading down.

    2. Autonomous Vehicles and Vaymo Partnership
      Q: What is Uber's approach to autonomous vehicles, particularly with Vaymo?
      A: Uber is expanding its autonomous vehicle partnerships, notably with Vaymo, focusing on deep integration in select cities like Austin and Atlanta. While initial volumes in Phoenix are modest, the experience has been positive, and the real test will be the significant expansion next year with Vaymos in the hundreds in those markets. Uber believes focused investment in key cities yields better returns than spreading thinly across many.

    3. Advertising Business Growth
      Q: How is Uber's advertising business performing and what is its outlook?
      A: Uber's advertising business is growing rapidly, aiming to exceed 2% of gross bookings in Delivery, currently in the mid-1% range. The SMB CPC business is expanding strongly, enterprise penetration is increasing, and they are developing sponsored listing products for groceries. Mobility advertising is also promising, with click-through rates 2–3 times industry averages, and new partnerships like T-Mobile to bring Journey TV to 50,000 vehicles.

    4. Delivery Growth and Uber One Membership
      Q: What's driving growth in Delivery and how is Uber One membership contributing?
      A: Delivery gross bookings grew 17%, driven by both new audience acquisition and increased frequency. The main Uber Eats business is bringing new users, significantly assisted by cross-promotion from Mobility, with one-third of new audience coming from Mobility. Focus on customer experience and the Uber One membership program, which now has 25 million members up 70% year-over-year, is enhancing frequency, as members spend 3 times more than non-members.

    5. Capital Allocation and M&A Strategy
      Q: How does Uber approach capital allocation and decisions on partnerships vs. acquisitions?
      A: Uber prioritizes responsible organic investments aligned with growth strategy and focused on free cash flow. With investment-grade status achieved, they are returning excess capital to shareholders, utilizing share buybacks as the primary vehicle. M&A is selectively evaluated with a high bar, requiring both strategic value and financial accretion, as seen in the Foodpanda acquisition. They prefer to build organically but will consider acquisitions if they can add significant value.

    6. Impact of Insurance Cost Increases
      Q: Are rising insurance costs primarily a U.S. issue, and how is Uber managing this?
      A: Rising insurance costs are primarily a U.S. phenomenon, with motor vehicle insurance CPI up 16% year-over-year in September. Uber expects these costs to continue increasing but at a lower rate. Their principle is to pass along insurance cost changes to riders, and they are working to reduce costs through safety initiatives and risk management programs.

    7. Consumer Demand and Macro Outlook
      Q: How is the broader consumer landscape affecting Uber's business?
      A: Uber is seeing strong consumer demand, with audience and frequency at all-time highs and global consumer retention up in both Mobility and Delivery. There are no signs of consumers trading down, and Uber For Business is experiencing strong growth with 50% constant currency growth. The company remains optimistic about the consumer environment.

    8. Opportunity in Less Dense Markets
      Q: How is Uber approaching less dense markets for growth?
      A: Uber sees significant opportunity in less dense areas, starting with Delivery where non-core cities represent 60–70% of the U.S. market. They are investing in improving selection and building liquidity in these areas, expecting it to be a tailwind for growth over the next 2 to 3 years.

    9. Autonomous Fleet Operations and San Francisco Insights
      Q: How is Uber leveraging its fleet operations for AVs, and what's the impact in San Francisco?
      A: Uber is extending its fleet operations expertise to autonomous vehicles to drive efficiencies for AV tech providers. In San Francisco, they see Vaymo having a category position in the high single digits to low double digits where they operate, but are not seeing significant effects on their own consumer base.

    10. Uber Direct and Partnerships
      Q: What's Uber's strategy for Uber Direct and partnerships like the one with Darden?
      A: Uber continues to invest aggressively in Uber Direct, expanding engineering resources and deepening capabilities. Some partnerships are exclusive while others are not; it depends on the specific deal. Uber's global reach is a significant benefit to partners, allowing integration across multiple markets.